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Saturday, October 24, 2009

The Colorado Avalanche are...IN?!?!? - by Big Tex

The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2008-09 season dead last in the Western Conference and 28th in the NHL. If you read my Season Preview Report on the Avs, you'll notice that I make no mention whatsoever of the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In fact, if you told me back in September that Colorado would be the first team called CHASING STANLEY (IN the playoffs) by On Goal Analysis, I would've launched into a classic song:

Well...take an umbrella when you leave the house today, because elephants are a-flyin': With a record of 7-1-2 through their first ten games, the Colorado Avalanche are now CHASING STANLEY!

How can OGA make such a call, you ask? Well, it's fairly simple: The Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) don't lie, baby. It may be mistaken on occasion, but it never lies outright. Last season, in fact, it was right almost 90% of the time. The OGA Boys will hang their hats (and reputations, such as they are) on that, any day of the week.

If you're not wowed by the PQC (though you should be), consider this: The Avalanche are currently tied for 7th in the NHL in goal scoring, averaging 3.40/gm...They're tied with Calgary and Atlanta for the best Power Play (28.6%)...The Avs' Penalty Kill, at 81.4%, is a respectable 11th...And, last but certainly not least, Colorado is allowing just 2.30 goals/gm (4th). These statistical nuggets, when combined, add up to 1st place in the Western Conference and (according to the PQC) a berth in the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

That's one down, twenty-nine to go. More teams' fates may be decided tonight, and for ten measly bucks, you can get a season subscription to OGA's Daily Tip-In Report (DITR) and be the first kid on your block to know who's IN and who's OUT.

And as long as we're going out on a limb here, I'm going to pick Craig Anderson for the Vezina Trophy. The Avs live or die with him, and so far, they're livin' large.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.


The Colonel said...

Bold words, Big Tex.

But as another OGA staffer who lives the PQC nightly, I know the truth of which you speak.

Pittsburgh is also Chasing Stanley right now, and three of tonight's Game 10 matches are potentially critical to more calls of IN or OUT.

And your Vezna pick? That may just come to pass as well. You go, Tex...

BigTony said...

Whoa Colorado IN?? I may be going out on a limb here but I'm going to go ahead and disagree with the PQC here. I'll give you some credit for that bold move because you can't always play it safe. But uhhhh, no, don't get too excited Avs fan for the tumble out of the playoff race will come very soon.

Big Tex said...

Big Tony, I can tell you that the OGA Boys had a rather lengthy debate over whether or not Colorado should be called IN. After considering a multitude of factors, we decided in the end that we had to stand by the PQC.

The next several months will be very interesting, as I think the Avs will only go as far as Craig Anderson can take them. If he slumps or gets hurt, or just gets worn out from playing so many games, Colorado will be in BIG trouble. As of right now, though, things are looking up in the Mile High City, and we've got to stand by the PQC.

Thanks for the comment!