The NHL Weekend Roadie: Newark State of Mind

Folks, I know it’s the first week in August. It’s hotter than fried hell across the southern half of the northern hemisphere. NHL training camps won’t open for another month. What does this mean? It means that it’s time for the first installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie – OGA’s recommended road trip o’ the week.

We’re kicking off this weekly series now because we recognize the need to plan ahead for these trips: flights must be arranged, hotel reservations made, game tickets purchased, rental cars…rented, etc. We’ll give you some tips for the above necessities, but the primary purpose of The NHL Weekend Roadie is to point you towards a potentially fantastic hockey-related road trip for every weekend of the regular season. For each roadie, we’ll do our best to stick to the following criteria:

1. Minimum of two games.

2. Only one round-trip plane ticket needed (in other words, no flights from one game to the next).

3. Maximum of five days on the road (weekend included), because people who can afford to take these trips have a finite number of vacation days.

With those rules in mind, let’s get on with it:

NHL Opening Weekend (Friday, 8 OCT – Monday, 11 OCT)

As the title of this post indicates, the theme for the inaugural NHL Weekend Roadie is (with apologies to Billy Joel) Newark State of Mind. Your itinerary is as follows:

Friday, 8 OCT: Dallas @ New Jersey – Season opener for both clubs. Surely, Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract fiasco will be resolved by then. Regardless, the first game for the post-Modano, post-Turco (and post-Lehtinen?) Stars should be interesting.

Saturday, 9 OCT: Dallas @ NY Islanders – Actually, with the easier travel back east, you have about four game options for Saturday, but this is the only one which will allow you to get back to your hotel before about 4:00am. Besides, Nassau Coliseum may be a dump, but it’s an historic dump which won’t be around forever. Also, A) the arena food is above average, and B) great seats are still available…and will be, even on game day.

Sunday, 10 OCT: Sightseeing in New York – No games today, so go get a pie at Lombardi’s. Make the pilgrimage to Ground Zero and St. Paul’s Chapel. Do. Not. Miss. The NHL Store. Cap your day with a pint (or three) of Smiling Pumpkin Ale at the Empire State Building’s Heartland Brewery. Get to bed early, because tomorrow’s a big day.

Monday, 11 OCT: The Daily Double!! – Monday is Columbus Day, which means you have a rare opportunity: Pittsburgh visits New Jersey in a matinee game (1:00pm) and Colorado is at Philadelphia in the evening (7:00pm). Thanks to Amtrak, you can watch two NHL games in person, in their entirety, in one glorious day! We OGA boys did the Daily Double two years ago, watching Buffalo hammer the Isles in the afternoon, then taking the train back to Penn Station and reaching our seats at Madison Square Garden just in time for the Devils-Rangers lovefest. ‘Twas an unforgettable day.

In addition to an awesome experience, you’ll gain instant Hardcore Hockey Fan Street Cred by catching four NHL games in three days, in three different arenas. Don't let this opportunity pass you by! Start making your reservations today. A few tips for your trip:

HOTEL – I recommend using Hotwire. As I type this, they have a 3.5-star hotel in the Newark airport area for a reasonable (compared to NYC) $89/night. Prices change quickly and often, so book at your own risk.

FLIGHTS – If you’re going to fly in on Friday, book an early morning flight – they should be cheaper than flights later in the day, plus you need to give yourself a healthy time cushion between your scheduled arrival time and game time. If you do the Daily Double, plan on flying home Tuesday morning.

GAME TICKETS – Individual game tickets aren’t on sale yet, so you’ll have to check the team websites for more info. If a game is sold out, check the TicketExchange on each team’s website for seats from season ticket holders.

GETTING AROUND – If you ever have the chance to drive around the greater New York City area, pass. Take public transportation. Check out the Amtrak, NJTransit, PATH, MTA and LIRR sites for schedules, pricing and maps.

There you have it: the first NHL Weekend Roadie. Got any favorite places to eat or drink in Newark? Post it in the Comments. Any important info I left out? Post it in the Comments. Got a better idea for an Opening Weekend roadie? You get the idea.

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Return of Hump Day Hockey Thoughts

Between getting married and watching my day job "...catch the last train for the coast", I've been a bit distracted for the past few weeks. Lack of regular paycheck aside, I must say it's good to be able to focus on hockey again. I can't think of a better way to climb back into the saddle than to discuss the odds & ends which caught my eye recently, so here goes:

With his shootout-winning goal late last night, Colorado's Matt Duchene merely confirmed what we OGA boys have known since last October: The Avalanche are IN the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Did anybody see this coming back in September? Did anyone in the Avs organization see this coming? Surely not this year, but maybe after their core group of talented kids had a season or two under their belts. While a number of factors are responsible for Colorado's success, my nominee for team MVP is goalie Craig Anderson. Talk about making the most of an opportunity: Anderson's GAA (2.64) and Save pct. (.916) aren't stellar, but they're quite good for a career backup who, prior to 2009-10, hadn't played more than 31 games in a season. After 70 appearances, Anderson leads all NHL goalies in Shots Against (2200), Saves (2016) and...Penalty Minutes(?!?) (16). While my October launch of an "Anderson for Vezina" campaign proved premature, the follicularly-challenged netminder has been worth every penny for Colorado...

After ringing up four straight wins, it looks like the Chicago Blackhawks are starting to get the hang of playing without Brian Campbell on the blueline. With injuries to Campbell, Brent Seabrook and Kim Johnsson, the 'Hawks have struggled since returning from the Olympic break...and so have the San Jose Sharks: both teams are 9-7-2 since March 2nd. Currently, the Sharks lead the Blackhawks by two points in the standings, but Chicago has a game in hand. Unlike most seasons, when the top teams spend the last week or two of the regular season merely trying to stay healthy for the playoffs, both of these clubs have plenty of motivation to win their remaining games, as there's a good chance the no.2 seed in the West will have to play Detroit in the first round...and nobody wants to play Detroit...

My hometown team, the Dallas Stars, won't be selling any playoff tickets again this season, so let's discuss their uniforms, instead: Blatant marketing ploy or abject stupidity? You be the judge:

According to Icethetics - THE source for all things jersey-related - the Stars will swap their road and third jerseys for the 2010-11 season. Thus, the "new" road jersey will be white, with "DALLAS" across the chest. The "new" third jersey will also be white, but will feature the Stars logo on the chest. I'm fine with that change, BUT...I expect the next change to be the unveiling of a NEW home jersey, which will be a black version of the "new" third jersey, replacing the current home jersey, which is black and says "DALLAS" across the chest. Now, I have nothing solid on which to base this theory, but it only makes sense: WHY would you splash a city name across the chest of your home jersey? Do your fans not know where they live? From Day One, I wondered if the Stars' "DALLAS" home jersey was a very expensive design error. Now, I suspect it was actually part of a cynical marketing strategy designed with the knowledge that fans would buy the new home jersey, no matter how stupid it looked, and then shell out more money for the "new and improved" home jersey a couple of years later. Unfortunately, this strategy will undoubtedly work, as the "DALLAS" home jerseys are simply asinine. Right now, I don't know if I'm more angry at the Stars organization for (possibly) taking advantage of their loyal fans, or at myself, because I know I'll be first in line for one of the "new and improved" home jerseys.

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JabberHockey: 29 Cities Under Avalanche Watch

SUNDAY, March 28th at 5.30PM ET on JabberHockey:

On this week's JabberHockey, the OGA scoring line host David Driscoll-Carignan of Mile High Hockey.com - the SB Nation blog covering the Colorado Avalanche.

While most analysts are surprised to see the Avs in playoff contention this season, we at OGA called them at CHASING STANLEY (IN the 2010 playoffs) on October 22, 2009. OGA Knows.

And we cannot wait to talk to David about all things Avalanche as they prepare to give their future stars their first taste of NHL playoff action. It's valuable experience the team will build on for years to come.

29 other NHL towns are on notice. And we'll set the beacon call this Sunday.

Join us this Sunday as we examine the teams in playoff contention and give you the OGA insight on this week's JabberHockey.


On Goal Analysis' weekly hockey talk show, JabberHockey is live every Sunday at 5.30PM Eastern. Topics vary each week as we highlight the lamps currently burning up the NHL. Always with a focus on our proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), we offer unique insight into each teams' chances of making post-season play...and the stories to unfold along the way. OGA Knows. And you can, too. Please join us!

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The Colorado Avalanche are...IN?!?!? - by Big Tex

The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2008-09 season dead last in the Western Conference and 28th in the NHL. If you read my Season Preview Report on the Avs, you'll notice that I make no mention whatsoever of the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In fact, if you told me back in September that Colorado would be the first team called CHASING STANLEY (IN the playoffs) by On Goal Analysis, I would've launched into a classic song:



Well...take an umbrella when you leave the house today, because elephants are a-flyin': With a record of 7-1-2 through their first ten games, the Colorado Avalanche are now CHASING STANLEY!

How can OGA make such a call, you ask? Well, it's fairly simple: The Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) don't lie, baby. It may be mistaken on occasion, but it never lies outright. Last season, in fact, it was right almost 90% of the time. The OGA Boys will hang their hats (and reputations, such as they are) on that, any day of the week.

If you're not wowed by the PQC (though you should be), consider this: The Avalanche are currently tied for 7th in the NHL in goal scoring, averaging 3.40/gm...They're tied with Calgary and Atlanta for the best Power Play (28.6%)...The Avs' Penalty Kill, at 81.4%, is a respectable 11th...And, last but certainly not least, Colorado is allowing just 2.30 goals/gm (4th). These statistical nuggets, when combined, add up to 1st place in the Western Conference and (according to the PQC) a berth in the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

That's one down, twenty-nine to go. More teams' fates may be decided tonight, and for ten measly bucks, you can get a season subscription to OGA's Daily Tip-In Report (DITR) and be the first kid on your block to know who's IN and who's OUT.

And as long as we're going out on a limb here, I'm going to pick Craig Anderson for the Vezina Trophy. The Avs live or die with him, and so far, they're livin' large.

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Colorado: Playing with the Freedom of Low Expectations

The following email arrived early this morning:

Big Tex,
I just glanced at the Western Conference standings, and I saw the Colorado Avalanche in the number one slot. Are the standings in alphabetical order, or is this just a typo? Please help – this is hurting my brain.

Thanks,
Mike B.
WingsCoach4Life@detroitredwings.com

Well, Mike, what you’re seeing is neither a typo nor the result of an alphabetization of the standings: Simply put, it’s what happens when a team plays with something I like to call the “Freedom of Low Expectations”. By that, I mean that the team has no hope (expectation) of qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so there is no pressure on them to perform. In the absence of pressure, the team plays only for pride and/or for love of the game. They can take chances, as a loss carries with it no serious consequences. Meanwhile, most of their opponents are still battling for a playoff spot, so they grip their sticks tighter and take few (if any) chances, playing with a grim determination which barely masks their fear of failure (pretty good hockey psychobabble for a Native Texan who majored in Rangeland Ecology and Management, eh?). When those two teams meet, the one with nothing to lose often has a distinct advantage.

What makes Colorado’s case unusual is that the “Freedom of Low Expectations” is the third stage of the season for a non-playoff team, and isn’t normally reached until February (at the earliest). What are the three stages, you ask? Read on:

STAGE I: Early season playoff possibilities = pressure. The 2008-09 Atlanta Thrashers are an excellent example. Through Game 28 (when they were called at Tee Time by OGA), the Thrashers felt the pressure to perform – to strive for a playoff spot – while simultaneously adjusting to a new coach and system. They didn’t fare well, posting a record of 9-15-4, and being called OUT of the playoffs by OGA on 12 DEC 2008

STAGE II: The Bruce Willis/Sixth Sense Stage. During Games 29-54, the pressure placed on the Thrashers increased, because just like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense, they didn’t know they were dead (no, there wasn’t a Spoiler Alert. If you haven’t seen the movie by now, you never will). During this stage, Atlanta went 9-16-1.

STAGE III: The Freedom of Low Expectations. Shortly before their mathematical elimination from the playoffs on 21 FEB 2009 (Game 60), the Thrashers must’ve seen the writing on the wall/figured out that rather shocking plot twist, as their play improved dramatically. In Games 55-82, Atlanta posted a very respectable record of 17-10-1, surprising several playoff-bound clubs who expected them to simply roll over.

The entire Colorado organization has known since 12 APR 2009 that the 2009-10 season would be dedicated to rebuilding. The only expectation the rest of the NHL had for the Avs coming into this season was for them to battle Phoenix for last place in the Western Conference. Now, six games in, the Colorado Avalanche have taken full advantage of the Freedom of Low Expectations and sit atop the West with a record of 4-1-1. In the weeks and months to come, it will be interesting to watch the Avs as either A) They start to believe they’ve got a shot at a playoff berth and increase the pressure on themselves accordingly, B) The rest of the NHL starts taking Colorado seriously, or C) Both.

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OGA SPR: The Colorado Avalanche - by Big Tex

This Labor Day, On Goal Analysis brings to you the 2009-10 Season Preview Report (SPR) on the Colorado Avalanche, a team which will really have to labor in order to climb back into the playoffs.

Last Season versus the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC): Finished at 3.45 vs. the PQC. The 2008-09 Colorado Avalanche prolonged the agony until 27 January, when they finally reached Tee Time. Colorado played at or below the Playoff Qualifying Curve for the entire season except Games 21-30, as their 6-3-1 record during that furlong was .5 over the PQC. The Avs stayed close to the Curve until the New Year, when their 3-7-0 swan dive in Games 41-50 removed all doubt as to their playoff prospects. While it’s fairly common for teams to ‘loosen up’ and play better hockey once they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, the Avalanche slid right off the mountain after Game 50, going 9-19-4 to close out their worst season since moving to Denver in the summer of 1995.

Post Lockout Average versus the PQC: After finishing at 4.75 vs. the PQC in each of the first three post-Lockout campaigns, the bottom fell out in Colorado last season – the Avs’ 3.45 put them dead last in the Western Conference and 28th in the NHL (only Tampa Bay and the Islanders were worse). 08-09 marked just the second non-playoff season since the Avalanche moved to Denver from Quebec prior to the 1995-96 campaign. Colorado struggles in February – they’ve finished below the PQC in the Games 51-60 furlong each of the last three seasons. On the flip side, the Avs have finished above the PQC for Games 11-20 in three of the last four seasons.

How does Colorado look heading into the 2009-10 season?

Team Play: ISSUE – Passing the torch. Over the summer, Avs’ team captain and icon Joe Sakic retired. Plagued by injuries, Sakic played in just 59 games over the last two seasons. Hoping to fill the (enormous) void, Colorado took center Matt Duchene with the third overall pick in the 2009 Entry Draft. While it’s patently unfair to compare the 18-year-old to the future Hall-of-Famer, Duchene will simply have to deal with it. Much will be expected of the youngster this season, as the Avalanche begin the climb back towards the playoffs and respectability. To that end, the Avs have made some sound offseason moves. First and foremost, they improved in the crease by signing free agent goalie Craig Anderson from Florida. Next, Colorado shored up a rather forlorn defensive corps by trading co-leading scorer Ryan Smyth to Los Angeles for d-men Kyle Quincey and Tom Preissing and a 5th-round pick in 2010. These are significant steps in the right direction, but team health will play an equal role in the Avs’ improvement this season. Here’s hoping the injury bug doesn’t bite Colorado in 2009-10 like it did last season, in which the Avalanche used 13 defensemen and Milan Hejduk was the only skater to dress for all 82 games. Here’s hoping Joe Sakic passes the torch to Matt Duchene, rather than the snowblower.

Fantasy Value: Ummm…Well…The Avs are full of fantasy ‘traps’.
Trap No.1: Milan Hejduk. Many fantasy GMs draft Hejduk based on his 2002-03 stats (82GP, 50-48-98, +52) and are shocked to get the 2008-09 model, instead (82GP, 27-32-59, -19). Hejduk doesn’t have Burnaby Joe feeding him pucks anymore. Caveat emptor, baby.
Trap No.2: Matt Duchene. Yes, he’s a highly-touted rookie. Unfortunately, his last name isn’t Ovechkin, Crosby or Malkin, so don’t expect numbers anywhere near those cats.
Trap No.3: Paul Stastny. Stastny is quite talented, and will be expected to be the full-time top line center now. Unfortunately, he’s missed 53 games over the last two seasons. If he can stay healthy, Stastny will reward fantasy GMs willing to gamble.
On a positive note, Fantasy GMs in deep leagues might want to consider any of the Avs’ top three blueliners (Liles, Preissing and Quincey) in late draft rounds, and netminder Craig Anderson should be a solid 3rd or 4th goalie. This team is just too young and talent-poor in 09-10 to provide a decent return on a heavy investment, though.

Schedule Analysis: ISSUE – Colorado plays 11 of their first 15 games on the road, including a 7-game trip in Games 3-9.

Tuesday, OGA breaks down the Columbus Blue Jackets…

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The "Non-Traditional" Invasion Begins

Well, well, well...The 2009 NHL Entry Draft took place last weekend, and Big Tex feels like doing a little victory dance. Some of you may remember a blog post from early May, in which I stated that non-traditional market teams were helping to grow the NHL's talent pool. Others may remember me making the same argument in comments on one of my favorite sites, Illegal Curve. Naturally, as I watched the draft, I was particularly cognizant of draftees from "Non-Traditional" markets. Here's the breakdown, by state of birth:

Utah: 1 (Dylan Olsen - 28th - CHI)
Texas: 1 (Chris Brown - 36th - PHX)
Colorado: 2 (Matt Clark - 37th - ANA & Drew Shore - 44th - FLA)
California: 3 (Kyle Bigos - 99th - EDM, Brandon Kozun - 179th - LAK & Mitchell Callahan - 180th - DET)
Florida: 1 (Brandon Maxwell - 154th - COL)
Arizona: 1 (Anthony Hamburg - 193rd - MIN)(NOTE: Hamburg gets DOUBLE non-traditional points because he was drafted out of the Dallas Stars' AAA Midget team)
Alabama: 1 (Nic Dowd - 198th - LAK)

That's a total of TEN draftees from non-traditional markets. According to nhl.com, that makes the 2009 Non-Traditional Market Draft Class roughly 43% larger than the 2009 Russian Draft Class. Yes, I'm well aware of the reasons (KHL) behind the NHL's reluctance (no transfer agreement) to draft Russians these days (KHL, cough, cough), but it is heartening to see the development of a new talent pool to help offset the rapidly dwindling Russian pipeline. The question all you makeitseven folks should ask yourselves is this: Without the Stars, Avalanche, Coyotes, Panthers and KingsDucksSharks (among others), would these kids have been drafted into the NHL, NFL or MLB?

I'll say it again, both because I believe it and because I like to repeat myself: Non-traditional market franchises, while an affront to Canadian and East Coast hockey purists, are helping grow the NHL talent pool. In the long-term, the growth of the talent pool will allow for expansion without a significant drop-off in quality of the on-ice product, and will gradually raise the level of play throughout the league. So, in regards to the so-called "Southern Strategy", I'm going to say something I've never directly stated before now, and may never say again: Gary Bettman was right.

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COL & FLA at Game 60(-ish)

Before launching into more analysis at the Game 60(-ish) mark, a couple of notes:

First, thanks go out to the guys at The Program for having us on their Blog Talk Radio show last week. It was fun, and we look forward to doing it again soon! By the way, they've got a new site, with lots of good info and videos. Check it out!

Second, I want to mention a site that's caught our (collective) eye of late: Puck Money provides a wealth of information on attendance figures around the league, as well as other money-related matters, such as updates on the status of the Lighthouse Project on Long Island. We like both this site and The Program so much, we've posted links on the OGA Home Page, so...Check.Them.Out.

And with that, let us take a look at a few more teams at Game 60(-ish):

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Currently 15th in the Western Conference, and Colorado has certainly earned their Tee Time. These aren't the Avs of old - they lack depth, and Paul Stastny's broken arm (26 games missed) and Joe Sakic's lost battle with a snowblower (48 games and counting) have mortally wounded the team this season. And let's face it: Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft combined don't make one starting goalie, as evidenced by the team GAA of 3.08 (27th in the NHL), despite only allowing 29.3 shots/gm (12th). It's not as if the defense isn't helping out - the Avs have blocked 1,001 shots so far this season (4th). There's plenty of blame to go around for Colorado's PK efficiency of 78.8% (25th), however.

The aforementioned lengthy absences of Stastny and Sakic have hurt Colorado on both sides of the puck: The Avs are scoring just 2.62 G/gm (T-21st), and the PP is an anemic 16.7% (22nd). They've struggled to win faceoffs, too, and must hope the return of Stastny will bring an improvement to their 48.4% on the draw (24th).

If there's one bright spot this season, it's that Colorado is the only team in the league still undefeated when leading after two periods. The bad news is they've only led after two periods 18 times in 63 games. Without question, the Avs are sellers at the trade deadline, as they look forward to re-tooling over the summer.

FLORIDA PANTHERS: Over their last eight games, Florida has done a spot-on impression of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, going 4-4-0 in the following manner:

Capitals@ Panthers 4 - 2 L
Devils@ Panthers 0 - 4 W
Blackhawks@ Panthers 4 - 0 L
Bruins@ Panthers 0 - 2 W
Panthers@ Bruins 1 - 6 L
Panthers@ Rangers 2 - 1 W
Panthers@ Devils 2 - 7 L
Panthers@ Capitals 6 - 2 W

So much to say about this, so little time...Goals Allowed in the 4 wins: 0,0,1,2. Goals Allowed in the 4 losses: 4,4,6,7. Are the Panthers cutting costs somehow by only playing defense every other game? Also, if we needed proof positive that the Hockey Gods hate Florida, this schedule provides: 2 games each against the top 3 teams in the East, plus 1 game against Chicago for good measure? Oh, yeah - and 1 "easy" night, at the Garden against a pissed-off Ranger squad. Judas Priest, that's a tough two weeks! Give the Cats credit for winning half.

After 63 games, Florida finds themselves 9 games over .500 (using NHLmath - patent pending), 6th in the East and very much In The Curve. Aside from the Dynamic (goalie) Duo of Vokoun and Anderson, who've combined to give the team a GAA of 2.65 (6th), how are the Panthers getting the job done? Can you say, "Scoring by Committee"? Eleven Panthers have 10 or more goals after Game 63, with Ville Peltonen being the most recent inductee into the club. While team scoring could stand improvement (2.76 G/gm - 17th in the NHL), it actually has improved over last season's 2.57 G/gm (20th). Who would've thought that trading Olli Jokinen would actually boost Florida's scoring? A certain Blogger Who Shall Remain Nameless, that's who. Said Nameless Blogger, way back in September:

While some might view the Olli Jokinen trade as a step back for the Panthers, OGA believes the upcoming season will prove the wisdom of the move. Not only did Florida receive two solid defensemen in return for their Captain, but they also sent a message to the remaining forwards: We believe in your ability to get the job done, and now is the time for you to step up. With a beefed-up blueline and a bunch of swift-skating kids up front, the Panthers will be a tougher team to play against in 08-09.

Don't think for a minute the Panthers would've made the promise they did if management didn't believe they'd make the playoffs this year. The Bouwmeester question will be answered, one way or another, this week (I'm betting on Jacques Martin keeping Jay Bo in a bid to make some playoff noise this year), and the team will be able to put that distraction behind them and focus on the home stretch and nailing down a playoff berth. Will the Panthers make the playoffs for the first time since the 99-00 season? The Magic 8-ball says, "Sources say YES".

Tomorrow, look for Game 60(-ish) analysis of the Kings and Blackhawks. Until then, ponder this: In previous Game 60 posts, I criticized both the Rangers and Predators for their lack of scoring. In their first games after my posts, they won, 6-1 and 8-0, respectively. Can I light a fire, or what?

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