If I Subscribed To Conspiracy Theories – The Colonel

Two events that have unfolded/are unfolding in the NHL off season gives a fella pause.

Sometimes suffering through the doldrums of the summer Hockey off-season is a bit like being adrift out on the waters in your brand new C&C 131, waiting for a breeze to come along and pick up your sails.

So if you were otherwise bored, you could easily sit around and subscribe to Conspiracy Theories, like the Kovalchuk Ultimatum and Niemi, The Shark...

The Kovalchuk Ultimatum

According to NY Post writer Larry Brooks, the NHL has issued what I like to call “The Kovalchuk Ultimatum.” Within the article, it is claimed that the NHL will ‘grandfather’ all current contracts, but wants an alteration to the current CBA that limits the counting of any future contract money past age 40 and the dollars in any years after the first five in the Salary Cap. There is an apparent deadline of Friday, 3 September for a final answer on this issue.

But IF you got caught up in conspiracy theory, you might pause at a few spots along the path taken to this point with the following line of reasoning…

Lou Lamoriello needs a player like Kovalchuk to get his team over the first/second round hump in the playoffs, so…

Lou signs Kovalchuk to a deal making him a Devil for life, but…

He still needs to be able to sign Parise next year, so puts in the ‘back end switcheroo’ to lower the overall Cap Hit a lot and promptly gets the first contract contested and voided;

AND Management/Team Owners have had it out for players throughout the history of hockey…

Lou is old school, and even apparently said he doesn’t like the kind of long term deal he concluded with Kovalchuk;

But then promptly forwards another, very similar contract to the NHL who apparently rejects it, simultaneously providing an ultimatum for the NHLPA to ratify changes to the Salary Cap structure, effectively ending the ‘old backend switcheroo;’

THEREFORE, Lou was working with the NHL to undermine the contract process at the expense of players to end these anti-old school contracts, right?

Wrong.

There was no collusion to force an alteration of the CBA before its scheduled renegotiation that was plotted, planned and executed by Lou Lamoriello on behalf of all other owners, the NHL, and Gary “The Evil Empire” Bettman himself.

‘How can you be sure because my logic above makes perfect sense?’ you ask.

Maybe to a paranoid tabloid reader. You are correct that Lou and the Devils need a player like Kovalchuk to get them over the hump come the post season. And they need Kovy AND Parise. After that, your conspiracy theory begins to take on water.

You are absolutely right Lou Lamoriello, GM of the New Jersey Devils, is old school. To his credit, he is a measure of the vanishing breed of folks who are all in for something they feel is important – in this case, putting together a winning Hockey club. That is why if you listened to the press conference, you heard him say ‘the name on the back is never bigger than the logo on the front,’ and once the deal was done, the Devils no longer care about anything except fitting that player into a system that can win.

You are allowed to scratch your head over why Mr. Lamoriello submitted a second contract that was similar to the first one. Heck, I did for a minute. But in 26 years in the military, I have thought long and hard on some tough issues and rubbed most of the hair off of the top of my head, only to find out the correct answer was something much easier.

But rather than surmising a grand scheme to end the long contract in the NHL by hacking off Mr. Bettman, ruminate on this: it is human nature to take the path of least resistance.

In contract negotiations, your competing input and sources of friction are: the current CBA; the player’s wants; expressed through his agent; the team’s balanced needs for that player plus taking care of the rest of the team; the NHLPA to ensure a player’s rights under the CBA are protected; back to NHL management to approve the whole process; and an independent arbitrator if there is an appeal of a decision against the contract. Like 40-grit sandpaper quality friction, that all is. Meet the CBA’s requirements and you only have the player, his agent and the team actively engaged in the process and all of the rest only passively doing their part. Aaaaah… Less resistance. And curiously enough, something ‘old school,’ which their accompanying experience knows.

I will hand you a mask and snorkel now as the crew abandons your sinking, conspiratorial ship.

Niemi, The Shark

In your descent with The Kovalchuk Ultimatum, your timing couldn’t be better as now you enter shark-infested waters. That’s the waters of Niemi, The Shark.

In a fit of final protest as you dog paddle around, asking for some floaties, I hear you say, “Wait! Wait! What about Niemi to the Sharks.”

“Huh?” I stupidly ask.

Paddle. Paddle. Follow me on this:

The Sharks lose to the Blackhawks in the Conference Finals; dang it – it was their turn to go for The Cup, and they have to GET those guys so they can go onward and upward next season…

But star goaltender Evgeni Nabokov announces on 7 July he is leaving to play for SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL… Ruination!

‘Hey, wait a minute,’ they say – ‘There’s extreme Cap issues in The Windy City, so we can fix ourselves AND attack them at the weak point, all at the same time…’

So on 9 July, they send a rather large offer sheet for Niklas Hjalmarsson, which the ‘Hawks are goaded into matching on 12 July…

That contract for Hjalmarsson stalls pre-Arbitration talk with Stanley Cup winning goalie Antti Niemi who goes to arbitration on 29 July and is awarded less than $3M per year…

Which the Cap-strapped Blackhawks walk away from for a less-than-$2M-per-year contract with free agent Marty Turco, in turn…

Leaving Niemi to be signed by the Sharks on 2 September.

You see? Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet was a ruse to get Niemi under contract who will play for revenge against his old team, beat them, and put the Sharks in the Stanley Cup Finals next year.

Now throw me a line, haul me in and give me a towel, you unhelpful twit – it’s cold in the water…

Three things I say to this one. First off, had Chicago not matched Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet, the Sharks would have taken him and paid the contract because they likely saw him as a future replacement to Rob Blake.

Second, when you lose your star goalie, you need a replacement and Niemi was available.

And third, if they did pick up Niemi to spite the ‘Hawks after they walked away from that Arbitration award, good on ‘em. In case you haven’t really noticed the game, Hockey is combat in a cold place. And ‘All’s fair,’ they like to say.
So here, just hold this anchor I am handing you so you can go down with your theories to the cold depths of, well, you know. You strike me as the kind who watches a terrorist attack unfold against your own troops on CNN and provide running commentary on how the militants could have been successful.

Buh-Bye.





…Conspiracy theories…

…Not even mildly entertaining...

…Of course, they would be brilliant if San Jose could have seen all of the dominoes falling exactly that way. And Lou does remind you of a wily old fox, doesn’t he…

…Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh. COME ON, BREEZE! Just a little puff of air would be nice.
Just to nudge us through to mid-September….

Take me to On Goal Analysis

Return of Hump Day Hockey Thoughts

Between getting married and watching my day job "...catch the last train for the coast", I've been a bit distracted for the past few weeks. Lack of regular paycheck aside, I must say it's good to be able to focus on hockey again. I can't think of a better way to climb back into the saddle than to discuss the odds & ends which caught my eye recently, so here goes:

With his shootout-winning goal late last night, Colorado's Matt Duchene merely confirmed what we OGA boys have known since last October: The Avalanche are IN the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Did anybody see this coming back in September? Did anyone in the Avs organization see this coming? Surely not this year, but maybe after their core group of talented kids had a season or two under their belts. While a number of factors are responsible for Colorado's success, my nominee for team MVP is goalie Craig Anderson. Talk about making the most of an opportunity: Anderson's GAA (2.64) and Save pct. (.916) aren't stellar, but they're quite good for a career backup who, prior to 2009-10, hadn't played more than 31 games in a season. After 70 appearances, Anderson leads all NHL goalies in Shots Against (2200), Saves (2016) and...Penalty Minutes(?!?) (16). While my October launch of an "Anderson for Vezina" campaign proved premature, the follicularly-challenged netminder has been worth every penny for Colorado...

After ringing up four straight wins, it looks like the Chicago Blackhawks are starting to get the hang of playing without Brian Campbell on the blueline. With injuries to Campbell, Brent Seabrook and Kim Johnsson, the 'Hawks have struggled since returning from the Olympic break...and so have the San Jose Sharks: both teams are 9-7-2 since March 2nd. Currently, the Sharks lead the Blackhawks by two points in the standings, but Chicago has a game in hand. Unlike most seasons, when the top teams spend the last week or two of the regular season merely trying to stay healthy for the playoffs, both of these clubs have plenty of motivation to win their remaining games, as there's a good chance the no.2 seed in the West will have to play Detroit in the first round...and nobody wants to play Detroit...

My hometown team, the Dallas Stars, won't be selling any playoff tickets again this season, so let's discuss their uniforms, instead: Blatant marketing ploy or abject stupidity? You be the judge:

According to Icethetics - THE source for all things jersey-related - the Stars will swap their road and third jerseys for the 2010-11 season. Thus, the "new" road jersey will be white, with "DALLAS" across the chest. The "new" third jersey will also be white, but will feature the Stars logo on the chest. I'm fine with that change, BUT...I expect the next change to be the unveiling of a NEW home jersey, which will be a black version of the "new" third jersey, replacing the current home jersey, which is black and says "DALLAS" across the chest. Now, I have nothing solid on which to base this theory, but it only makes sense: WHY would you splash a city name across the chest of your home jersey? Do your fans not know where they live? From Day One, I wondered if the Stars' "DALLAS" home jersey was a very expensive design error. Now, I suspect it was actually part of a cynical marketing strategy designed with the knowledge that fans would buy the new home jersey, no matter how stupid it looked, and then shell out more money for the "new and improved" home jersey a couple of years later. Unfortunately, this strategy will undoubtedly work, as the "DALLAS" home jerseys are simply asinine. Right now, I don't know if I'm more angry at the Stars organization for (possibly) taking advantage of their loyal fans, or at myself, because I know I'll be first in line for one of the "new and improved" home jerseys.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Chicago, Chicago...and Other Thoughts

Those of you who didn't stay up late last night missed one heck of a game. The Blackhawks-Sharks tilt was my personal selection for Game To Watch this week, and I was not disappointed. Chicago was clearly the only team ready to play when the puck dropped, and skated easily to a 3-0 lead just 8:23 into the game. With the 'Hawks just one goal away from an early bedtime for Yours Truly, the Sharks rallied: Joe Pavelski scored at 11:52 to make it a two goal game. Pavelski's second goal of the night came on the power play, late in a San Jose-dominated second period, and left me wondering why I hadn't claimed him off the fantasy waiver wire when I had the chance. 4:56 into the final frame, Manny Malhotra completed the Sharks' rally, making the remaining fifteen minutes an exciting, see-saw battle. 1:37 into Bonus Hockey, Troy Brouwer (whom I DID claim off the fantasy waiver wire a few weeks ago) won it for Chicago with his second strike of the night. Four thoughts/impressions from the game:

1. On the rush, Chicago uses their (quite impressive) speed to carry the puck into the offensive zone, quickly backing the defense down below the faceoff circles, then hits the brakes and either passes or carries the puck into a wide-open mid-slot for a premium scoring chance. They're dangerously close to elevating this play to an art form.

2. The Blackhawks' ability to exert sustained pressure - at one point, keeping the puck in the Sharks' zone for over a minute at even strength - was (I have to use the phrase again) quite impressive. Almost as impressive was the Sharks' ability to weather these storms and (eventually) clear the puck without taking any penalties.

3. Duncan Keith is worth every penny of his contract.

4. While Ross McKeon isn't happy with Chicago's netminders, last night went a long way toward convincing me that the Blackhawks can win it all with their current goalie tandem. Huet made big saves when they were required, and the d-men in front of him were quite good at clearing the rebounds. Thus, McKeon's proposal of a trade for Dallas' Marty Turco only makes sense if the 'Hawks believe Antti Niemi will be ready to carry the load full-time next season, and the Stars are willing to take on Huet's contract.

And now for something completely different...

Caught the third period of the Thrashers-Flyers game last night. If the fans are booing a timeout, the game must be in Philly.

All the talk of late regarding the Patrice Cormier incident and the Auger/Burrows affair has led me to the following conclusion: WHAT IF referees, rather than targeting players for "making them look bad" or allowing opposing teams to take liberties with players they (the officials) don't particularly care for (coughSean Averycoughcough), said to players who were guilty of dangerous play/deliberate attempts to injure (like Cormier), "Kid, your actions have crossed the line, so you'd better watch your back tonight, because I won't be watching it for you." In other words, if referees let the guilty party know that they were going to allow the opposing team a great deal of retaliatory leeway, I believe the Patrice Cormiers of the (hockey) world would think twice before throwing that elbow or hitting from behind. BOTTOM LINE: If the refs are going to "target" players, they should be targeting those who attempt to injure, rather than those who simply attempt to aggravate.

That's my two cents (keep the change). Bonus Item: As my esteemed colleague, Frozen Pill, pointed out, it's Hockey Weekend Across America. Today, wear your favorite jersey/sweater. Personally, I'll be rocking my blue Rangers Mark Messier and dreaming of 1994. Good times...

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Odds, Ends, and FREE TICKETS - by Big Tex

A few odds, ends and random hockey thoughts going into the weekend:

ANOTHER GAME-WINNING SAVE: Tuesday night, NYR @ VAN. With the Canucks leading, 1-0, early in the 3rd, Ales Kotalik rings a slapper from the point off the post during a four minute Rangers power play. Chris Higgins gets his first of the year (FINALLY!) roughly a minute later, but it doesn’t matter: Vancouver wins, 4-1. That makes THREE Game-Winning Saves so far this season. It’ll be interesting to see how long the theory holds up…

DURING THE RANGERS' STINKFEST IN VANCOUVER, rookie call-up Dane Byers racked up 29 Penalty Minutes in the 3rd period. That's a good start for the kid, but he's no Randy Holt.

OFFICIALS 1, STARS 0 (OT): Wednesday night in Dallas…in Overtime…Stars’ d-man Nicklas Grossman is sent to the sin bin for chipping the puck over the glass from OUTside his own blueline. Last time anyone checked, that wasn’t a Delay of Game penalty. Refs win, but donate the “W” to Calgary in recognition of Jerome Iginla’s goal on the ensuing PP.

BIG TEX @ VANCOUVER @ DALLAS: Yes, I’ll be at the game tonight, Tweeting away on all things tweet-worthy. Follow along by following me @OGAs_BigTex

WITH ALL THE INJURIES to big-name players right now, why is it that there are still fantasy hockey leagues in which the likes of Rich Peverley and Ales Kotalik are free agents?

SPEAKING OF RICH PEVERLEY…Though I’d picked Thursday nights’ San Jose @ Detroit tilt as my Game 2 Watch for the week, I found myself caught up in the Blue Jackets – Thrashers game instead. I was left with the following impressions from the exciting, back-and-forth affair: Uppermost in my mind, these two clubs can no longer be dismissed as “expansion teams”, as they’ve both formed (if not fully formed) identities now. Atlanta is FAST and has a power play which is both exciting and lethal, even without Kovalchuk. In Columbus, Ken Hitchcock continues to preach defensive responsibility, but is beginning to embrace the offensive aspects of the game as the Blue Jackets’ skill level increases (among other things, this means that the ‘Jackets PP has improved dramatically since last season). I expect both clubs to challenge for playoff berths this season, and at least one of them to make it in.

LAST, BUT NOT LEAST: FREE TICKETS! It seems I’ve won two tickets to the Detroit @ Columbus game next Wednesday, 11 NOV. Unfortunately, I cannot justify spending over $500 on a plane ticket to attend the game, so I’m offering the tickets to the first BLUE JACKETS fan to Tweet or email me at matt@ongoalanalysis.com (Detroiters need not apply).

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Monday, Monday: Day 49 of the Lockout

The NHL steps back onto the ice tonight after a rare day off, playing three games. Of the three contests, the most compelling (in my not-really-all-that-humble opinion) is San Jose's rare visit to Madison Square Garden. The New York Rangers are red-hot, having tied the best record through eight games in franchise history (7-1-0). San Jose's play has been a bit uneven in the early going (as evidenced by their 4-3-1 record), but Dany Heatley (5G, 5A, +3) has been en fuego. The Rangers, of course, have an answer for Heatley in Marian Gaborik (6G, 6A, +8). Coming into tonight's game, both teams are undefeated when scoring first, so...unless this game is scoreless going into a shootout, that stat is going to change for one team. This is the game to watch tonight, provided you don't have DirecTV (like me, dammit). If you do have DirecTV, this is Day 49 of the Lockout, and you'll have to look to the other two games of the night for your hockey fix:

Los Angeles @ Dallas (8:30pm EST): The Kings' wheels-off road show comes to Dallas. This is the final game of a six-game road trip for Los Angeles, and they've lost the last three. Dallas, meanwhile, is 1-1-1 at home and 0-1-1 when Big Tex is in attendance, so expect the Stars to take full advantage of my absence tonight and kick the Kings while they're down.

Vancouver @ Edmonton (9:00pm EST): The injury-depleted Canucks (3-4-0) limp into Edmonton for an intra-Canada skirmish. The Oilers (4-2-1) are reaping the benefits of a rejuvenated Dustin Penner (5G, 4A, +5) (Honorable Mention: Mike Comrie (3G, 3A, +4) ), while the Canucks enter the game with 50% fewer Sedins than normal. Team Captain Roberto Luongo will have to stand tall in the crease if Vancouver hopes to earn a point (or two) tonight.

This looks to be a big week across the league, as On Goal Analysis could POTENTIALLY call as many as FOURTEEN TEAMS either IN or OUT of the Stanley Cup Playoffs by Sunday, 25 Oct. That's right: the fates of almost half the NHL could be decided this week. How do we know what we know? Check out 'The Tao of OGA' for an explanation, and our 2008-09 Report Card to see our results.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

OGA SPR: The San Jose Sharks - by Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the San Jose Sharks - the 25th installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The San Jose Sharks as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: The San Jose Sharks consistently start their seasons with more winning than losing. Having lost in the second round to the Dallas Stars in the 07-08 Stanley Cup playoffs the previous year, and with a new coach at the helm, last year's eventual President Trophy winners started the 2008-09 season at a pace that baffled the league and put up points that would carry them through the ups and downs of their campaign.

They won 25 of their first 30 games. But by Game 10, OGA saw the Sharks meet several key demarcations along the PQC, enabling us to correctly call the San Jose Sharks 'Chasing Stanley' (IN the playoffs) on October 28th, 2008!

The Sharks would finish the season with a remarkable 5.85 PQC rating, continuing the pattern of upping their own PQC average score as they have done each season since the lockout.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: In the 2008-09 NHL season the San Jose Sharks bucked several previously consistent trends as had been established by their play when measured against the PQC. Sadly, they did not buck the trend of a premature exit from the playoffs.

In the four previous seasons (going back to the lockout), the Sharks had consistently improved their play and winning percentage from games 10-20, regardless of what they had done in the first ten. Their performance on the Curve then dips down in the three seasons before last year's campaign between games 20 and 30. But the 08-09 Sharks actually improved their winning percentage during this furlong.

Between games 30 and 40, again, the Sharks show remarkable consistency with a nosedive in wins and on their PQC rating. You may remember last season some folks had projected the Sharks to finish the regular season with some ridiculous point total in the 130s (or thereabouts) based on their incredible start to the season in the first few months.

Then came the losing.

The Sharks dropped a full 3 points on the Curve between games 30 and 40 and another 2.5 points between games 60 and 70. This last dip was another break from their trending as in the seasons previous, they had risen dramatically in their PQC rating during that time in preparation for the playoffs.

The Sharks' departure from the team trends last season may have meant their playoff push came a little too late. They won the winnable games, taking 7 of their last 12 but still appeared to slump into the playoffs, rather than attack. The uncharacteristic play as noted when compared to the PQC (and as noted when the Sharks won over COL in a 1-0 shootout then lost to Phoenix and Los Angeles to close out the 08-09 regular season) may have been incremental in their shocking first-round loss to the Anaheim(surprisinglymighty)Ducks.

Despite the ups and downs, the Sharks did manage, for the fourth season in a row, to raise their average PQC rating - now residing at a lofty 5.388. And although playoff expectations were not met again last season, the Sharks come into the 2009-10 campaign ready and hungry. And that, my friend is a bad thing if'ns you prefer one of the other 29 teams.

Hungry Sharks will eat and are to be avoided.

SUMMER SPLASH

• In the summer of discontent, where the fans and the media claimed big changes were needed to propel this regular-season wunderkind to the Finals, the San Jose Sharks changed very little. Some minor tweaks here, some chum there. But if there is anything the pre-season signing of Dany Heatley proves, it is the notion this club views the upcoming season as a chance for a good veteran squad, with opportunities of promotion for their prospects, to perform. And if they don't, they will make a move or three during the course of the season to complete the team and solve their conundrum.
  

• And perhaps the biggest splashes of change in the Shark Tank will come during the season. Elite players will be viewed with a keen eye and we at OGA wouldn't be surprised if more big trades were offered up during the course of the season depending on, well, the course of the season. Pre-pre-season moves have cleared up some salary cap space for future considerations. Sharks fans simply cannot endure another superior regular season followed by a sub-par playoff run. As Fear the Fin put it, in their post with the best title ever (see the title to the entry dated April 27, 2009 10:38PM PDT by Mr. Plank),

"Stunned. Shocked. Numb. Disappointed that a season, a season that had so much promise, has been ripped away in a mere six games....This series will be recapped tomorrow. If you're expecting something more right now, go ahead and start your own blog."

• To set the stage for the internal changes of operation, the team has stripped Patrick Marleu of his Captaincy and taken the 'A' away from Joe Thornton. The idea is to see who earns these leadership roles through the course of camp and the pre-season. For Wednesday night's game (09.23.09), the Sharks skated captain-less but with three 'A's - Marleau, Thornton, and Dan Boyle. Boyle is considered to be the fan-favorite as a fresh start for the Sharks' Captaincy - and a deserving player/person.
  

• IN For the Swim: Dany Heatley! And then Joe Callahan, Dwight Helminen, Manny Malhotra (an excellent signing for what he will bring to the ice, the locker room, and the team-friendly, Jere Lehtinen-like discount hit to the cap), Scot Nichol, Jed Ortmeyer, Daniel Rahimi, Patrick White.

• Move Along, Nothing Left to See Here: Gone from San Jose are (some fairly big names from the roster): Jonathan Cheechoo and Milan Michalek, traded to Ottawa in the Dany Heatley trade. Wingers Riley Armstrong, Travis Moen, Lukas Kaspar and Mike Grier, have moved to other towns along with defensemen Brad Lukowich, Christian Ehrhoff, Brett Westgarth and backup goalie Brian Boucher. Forward Marcel Goc is in Nashville and Jeremy Roenick and Claude Lemieux retired this summer.

FROZEN PILL'S FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Joe Thornton (C). Many of the complaints from the anxious and the frustrated are in regards to big Joe's failure to propel the team deeper into the playoffs. It's debatable if one player can be singled out in such a fashion in a sport where team play is so vital to success, but nonetheless (andalwaysthemore), nobody every complains about Thornton's regular season prowess. And that's why he will be high on everybody's draft roster and should be on yours, as well. Last season, he posted 86 points (25/61) and will now likely be playing with Dany Heatley. Put them on the ice at the same time (hello, power play. you like nice this evening...) and Joe's assist-count is going up. He is also projected to crack 30 goals this season.

TrustyRusty: Dan Boyle (D). Not at all Rusty, but quickly becoming the Trusty in San Jose, the favored consideration for the new Captaincy of the Sharks' squad was fifth in team scoring last season posting 57 points (16/41) in 77 games. His minutes will go up, he's got a knack for offense and should be considered a top-10 choice for your d-doods. Plus, he's just a cool guy.

Up and Coming: Devin Setoguchi (RW). Last season, the Frozen Pill pointed out to a co-writer how good Setoguchi was playing early in the season...and how he just might be the hot hand coming out of the Shark Tank. In other words, Cheech-Who? Well, said co-writer listened well and went out snagged Devin from the free agent list before the Pill was done pontificating and debating and correlating and mad-scientisting away about the pick-up opportunity. Don't be last season's Pill. Get you some Setoguchi and you'll be better by morning.

Under the Radar: Joe Pavelski (C). Pavelski is coming into his own and will be one of the Sharks whose expectations will rise each season and his performance will increase in kind. Last season, he posted 59 points (25/34) in 80 games and will likely center the second line this season. He is only 25 and the 205th overall pick in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft is pegged as a future leader for this team. His steady rise in points the last couple of seasons is no fluke and neither are his 16 power play goals and 7 game-winning goals in the same time span.

The Watchful Eye: Patrick Marleau (C). Normally reserved for prospects or rookies, this time the Watchful Eye is gazed upon Patrick Marleau. How will he respond to his changing role on the team? Will Heatley's presence in the mix elevate his play? It very well could. He was second on the team in scoring last season with 71 points (38/33) but the Frozen Pill is wondering if Marleau's' season won't be a tale of two cities. Keep an eye on him to gauge whether he, A)gets the ice time he has been accustomed to in the past or B)becomes the lead unit in a package deal for a mid-season sweep of the house or C) plays more like he did in his 07-08 season where he produced only 19 goals and finished -19 on a good Sharks team.

The Crease: Evgeni Nabakov. Is Nabby your first or second choice for netminder?

Mad Scientist: Dany Heatley (LW). His off-season running commentary in Ottawa of 'get me out of here now' provided a lot of reason for fans and those in-the-know to say, 'hey, would you want sour grapes on your team?' But secretly, we all know about 29 teams had at least a passing, if not progressive, interest in finding out what it might take to bring the Heater into town. And we at OGA know, regardless of your opinions, you secretly want him on your fantasy roster. Remember, what happens off the ice, stays off the ice. What happens while on it will snag your fantasy team points as fast as Joe Thornton can pass the puck.


THE OGA DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the San Jose Sharks swim straight for the kill and qualify for the post-season play yet again? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

Tomorrow, another OGA Boy gets in on the action for Season Previews this week when the Colonel brings you a mind-bending analysis of the Renaissance Team, the St. Louis Blues. There is no spoon...

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

Chicago and Florida's Problems, Tonight's Key Games

First, a few quick thoughts on Wednesday night's games, then a brief look at tonight's action...

CHICAGO: Good job beating the Sharks (6-5,SO), but...When I tuned in, the 'Hawks were already up, 4-1. Squandering a three-goal lead, at home, to an injury-depleted San Jose squad should set off alarms. In Joel Quenneville's system, Chicago's d-men are fully engaged in the attack. This system works best when your goalies demonstrate the capability to make saves on breakaways, but neither Khabibulin nor Huet have been up to the challenge of late. Last night's example:



And two from last Friday:




If the Blackhawks can't clean up this mess, they could be one-and-done in the playoffs.

FLORIDA: After taking a 3-1 lead early in the 3rd against a down-and-out Sabres squad, the Panthers - repeating what has become a theme of late - snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, losing the game, 5-3, and seriously damaging their rapidly dwindling playoff hopes. The keyword is consistently, as in "The Panthers of late have consistently failed to play a full 60 minutes." As a result of their spotty efforts, Florida has dropped three straight, and now sits in 9th in the East, two points back of Montreal, and the Habs have a game in hand. The Magic 8-Ball says, "Outlook not so good.", which brings us to...

THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAMES OF NOTE

Florida must go into tonight's game at Philadelphia with a Game 7 mentality. Simply put, they NEED a W here, while the Flyers don't. If the Panthers don't leave The City of Brotherly Shove with two points - particularly if Montreal beats Tampa Bay - then I'm afraid the decision to keep Bouwmeester will go down in the history books as a gamble that didn't pay off.

Nashville needs to take full advantage of a beat-up and tired San Jose team. As with Florida, the Preds NEED two points, while the Sharks just need to get healthy for the playoffs (but picking up a point to stay ahead of Detroit wouldn't hurt). As with Florida, the Preds sit 9th in the conference. Two points tonight, coupled with an Edmonton regulation loss at Phoenix, will put Nashville into 8th come Friday morning.

Calgary at Columbus has "1st Round Matchup" written all over it. The Flames have stumbled a bit of late, and need a W tonight to maintain their division lead over the onrushing Vancouver Canucks. Meanwhile, Columbus needs a W for a comfortable 5-point lead over the suddenly red-hot Anaheim Ducks, not to mention the need for a "statement game" against a potential 1st round opponent.

So many more: Edmonton desperately needs to beat Phoenix...St. Louis (where did they come from?) desperately needs to beat Vancouver...Ditto Montreal over Tampa Bay. Let's face it: At this time of year, there are more "Must Win/Must Watch" games than not. It's the time of year when dreams are realized and hopes are dashed, when many teams' playoff futures hang on a single power play, a single injury, a single goal. It is both beautiful and terrible, and it's merely a glimpse of what will come in the postseason. To (loosely) paraphrase General George S. Patton:

"Hockey...God help me! I do love it so."

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