Maurice Richard and the Myth of 50 in 50 (Part 1) - by Big Tex

photo: www.sportshall.ca

A great many words have been written about the legendary Canadien and Hall of Famer, Maurice “Rocket” Richard. The Rocket’s 1944-45 campaign, in which he became the first (and only) NHL player to score 50 goals in a 50-game season, has long been the standard by which all other goal-scoring feats are measured. The 2009-10 season marks the 65th anniversary of “50 in 50” – a time to reflect. Richard’s feat bears scrutiny, that we might better understand and appreciate it for what it was…and wasn’t.

Yes, Maurice Richard was the founding father of the NHL’s 50 in 50 club, but he’s not alone: Mike Bossy (1980-81), Wayne Gretzky (1981-82, 1983-84, 1984-85), Mario Lemieux (1988-89) and Brett Hull (1990-91, 1991-92) are all members. For some fans, the fact that Richard was first is not enough. Often, they feel the need to explain why Richard’s 50 in 50 was somehow a greater achievement than any subsequent 50 in 50. These conversations usually revolve around a few key points, which can be summarized as follows:

MYTH: It was more difficult to score 50 goals in a 50-game season than in an 80-game season because scoring drops in the spring as teams battle for playoff berths.

FACT: The NHL only played four 50-game seasons, from 1942-43 to 1945-46. In three of those four seasons, goal scoring actually increased during the last quarter of the season. In 1944-45, the average number of goals scored per game jumped from 7.12 during the first 112 games of the season to 8.05 over the final 38. Richard’s stats run counter to the NHL as a whole, however: he had 41 goals through Game 37, but only scored 9 in the last 13 games of the campaign.

MYTH: Goals were harder to come by back in the 1940’s. It wasn’t like the “freewheeling 80’s”.

FACT: Here’s a comparison of the Average Goals/Game for the four 50-game seasons and the first four seasons of the 1980’s:

Average G/Gm 1942-43: 7.22. 1943-44: 8.17. 1944-45: 7.35. 1945-46: 6.69.
Average G/Gm 1980-81: 7.69. 1981-82: 8.03. 1982-83: 7.73. 1983-84: 7.89.

While the 1980’s saw a great many goals scored, the average game was quite comparable to the early 1940’s. There can be no doubt that the inflated scoring so long ago was due to the fact that many of the NHL’s top players were serving their countries in World War Two. Scoring began to drop as soon as the war ended and the returning NHLers swapped their tunics for sweaters, as can be seen in the G/G average for 1945-46. Perhaps a more telling statistic, however, is the percentage of 20+ goal scorers during the War Years compared to 32+ goal scorers in the early 80’s (***NOTE – 20 goals in 50 games is .4 G/Gm. .4 G/Gm over an 80-game season is 32 goals, which is why I chose that number): 1942-43 to 1945-46: 73 of 511 players (14.29%). 1980-81 to 1983-84: 200 of 2408 players (8.31%). During WWII, a significantly greater percentage of players scored at a pace of .4 G/Gm or better. After the war – and after Richard’s 50 in 50 – goals were harder to come by.

The facts above do not in any way cheapen Maurice Richard's singular achievement, however. The Rocket was a goal scorer throughout his career, and the War Years - just like the early 1980's - were an era in which goal scorers flourished. In that era, Richard stood tall. And, in the process of becoming the first player ever to score 50 goals in 50 games, he accomplished something else - a feat never before seen in the NHL, and one which has since been achieved by just four other players: Statistical Supremacy. What is "Statistical Supremacy"? Check back tomorrow for Part Two...

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Are the Hurricanes Done? - Frozen Pill

As Caniacs know, it's a rough ride right now for the Carolina Hurricanes. Without slogging through the list of ailments and woes, I'll make mention mention of one thing:

It's time for the Legace legacy to begin in Carolina.

The Hurricanes, having just signed Manny Legace to a 1-year, two-way deal to replace the lacerated Cam Ward for the next 4- 6 weeks will need to grasp this unshaken shake-up and turn it all into a positive or their season could very well be through.

The Colonel and OGA have been staring at some daunting numbers for Carolina today. And we're not just talking about their 2-11-3 record. Obviously, the Canes are 30th in the NHL with 7 points. 29th are the Leafs with 11. Rough numbers, indeed.

But the numbers concerning OGA right now are the ones we see Carolina tracking against our PQC. (if not familiar with what we do here at OGA, please read the TAO of OGA on our website here).

For the sake of brevity this late in the day, here's what we see:

• Per OGA projections, for the Hurricanes to make the 2010 playoffs, they would need to finish the season playing .652 hockey whereas they are currently playing .219. Or, more plainly stated, they need to win three times more often than they have been thus far for the rest of the season. Hard to fathom.
• The Hurricanes may be the next team OGA calls OUT of the 09-10 NHL Playoffs. 'So soon', you say? Well, we say if they don't win more than 2 of their next 4 games, you should watch our website for the TEE TIME color code to show up on Carolina's standings in our PQC Status Spectrum.
  

(Of course, if you are the type who needs to know before the masses , you can always subscribe to our DTIR. It's cheap, it's informative and makes you the veritable Nostradamus of Hockey.)

• The Hurricanes need to find talent with a knack for scoring who can be inserted into the lineup NOW. Even if Eric Staal were back in play tonight, he would be another body on the bench at the rate he has been (not) producing. If he were in, he would need to get out of the funk immediately. Otherwise, Carolina needs to find scoring either in their prospects or via a trade, but find it they must and before it's too late. They cannot afford to wait another couple of games or work through a few more drills. Unless there is a catalyst now, change is needed.
• Starting a newly-acquired veteran goalie like Legace may just be the catalyst this team needs to bring players out of this cycle of drought. If Manny steps in, gives the team some confidence and a fresh voice to listen to, a rally point may be created. If Legace performs well, this team can begin to believe their season can be rescued. But the need for a proven scorer will still exist.
  
• Hello, Left-Wing Lock. Time for shutdown hockey. It's gotta be ugly, it's gotta be boring and it's gotta be effective. Until the Canes can find the back of the opposing net, they MUST stop their opponent from driving theirs. Their defense needs to be the new guard of the regime and form a veritable wall in front of Legace. The forwards need to clog up the nuetral zone and back-check with tenacity for sixty minutes each night.
  
• Ownership/Management needs to get the lead out and make a big splash to improve this team. The kind of deal they should have done in the summer when they thought the team they had would work just fine after their amazing playoff run last season. They forgot how much of the run was simply amazing and not necessarily indicative of their team-wide talent as compared to the rest of their conference. To not make a deal now that will shake this team from squander so early in the new season, is too pay a very high, albeit different, cost indeed. as The Colonel noted, setting for losing now means settling for both a lost season (developmentally and potential revenue-wise) and perhaps a new GM forced to admit the summer's coaching extension was ye olde biiig meestake.

Exit Question. Is it a coincidence I am currently awaiting a replacement for my Eric Staal short sleeve t-shirt? I recently had to make my first 'return' to shop.NHL.com for a new Staal player-tee because the one they sent me came apart in the wash. Literally, the stitching on the bottom hem just came undone and fell out upon its first run through the washing machine, prior to wearing.

Here's hoping the Carolina Hurricanes organization can see the veritable stitching falling apart at the seams. I also hope they understand, while patient, both the team and the fans cannot afford to wait the standard 4-6 weeks for delivery of our replacement product.

Sunday's JabberHockey and A Thanks...

If you missed last Sunday's episode of JabberHockey, On Goal Analysis' weekly hockey radio show, you can go to our home page, www.ongoalanalysis.com and scroll down a bit past the standings and scores on the left hand side. There you will find the player. Click 'play' and listen to 'When The Lightning Strike' wherein we discussed all things Tampa Bay Lightning with the excellent Cassie McClellan from SB Nation's Raw Charge.

We dedicated almost the entire show to the interview as we had some quick changes to the agenda and had MANY questions for Cassie regarding lessons learned and a fresh, new season to play in Tampa. With the Lightning currently sitting in 9th in the East, just outside of playoff positioning, this season's squad is remade, refreshed and possibly even beating your team in your barn on any given night.

We asked questions ranging from the absence of the 'sophomore slump' for Steve Stamkos and the growth of the great game in the greater Tampa area. Make a little time for a quick listen. We'll be appreciative and you'll be enlightened. Smacks of a bargain...

Again, thanks to Cassie and also to John for livening up the associated chat. It was a lot of fun and we look forward to our next conversation.

And on another note, we want to send another big 'Thank You' to one of the OGA team members. Our PQC-master, The Colonel has chosen a blog handle that is most relevant considering he still serves in such capacity in the US National Gaurd. He not only serves, but has seen active duty overseas and will often bring his unique insight into battle strategy to his analysis of current play in NHL hockey. For a good example, check out his blog about the Caps last season (March) that was linked by Puck Daddy and others here.

So, on Veteran's Day, OGA sends out a big, hearty 'Thanks' to The Colonel for his service to the country. Remember to thank the veterans in your life today, too since you are free to do so.

And thanks for your support!

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The 2010 Playoffs: If We Had To Project It Now – The Colonel

It’s Monday morning, 9 November 2009. If we took the NHL’s current winning percentages, applied them to remaining schedules, and were forced to select the teams that would be in the 2010 Playoffs, what would be the call? (Note I factor in each OT/SOL as one-half of a win for percentage calculation’s sake.)

The Eastern Conference

The current spread of winning percentages times the number of games left back East gives us a top eight seeding as follows:

New Jersey
Pittsburgh
Washington
Buffalo
Philadelphia
NY Rangers
Ottawa
Tampa Bay

The winning percentages run from .733 for New Jersey down to .567 for Tampa Bay. The caveat here is, of course, that they will not keep up these percentages throughout the season or all of these teams will have over 100 points come April 11th.

The Western Conference

The current spread of winning percentages times the number of games left out West gives us a top eight seeding as follows:

San Jose
Colorado
Calgary
Los Angeles
Columbus
Chicago
Phoenix
Dallas

The winning percentages out West run from .722 for both San Jose and Colorado down to .588 for both Phoenix and Dallas. If all of these teams maintained their winning percentages, it would take a minimum of 109 points for the 8th seed. This will not happen, however. The fact that two each from this group sit at both the top and bottom of the Conference spread indicates that we are due for another, grueling battle of parity out West. (Good for us!)

The Top Eights to The Conference Finalists

A note about the top eights above is the fact that three teams in the East and four in the West were not in the Playoffs the season before. Taken together, those seven ‘newbies’ out-pace the average turnover numbers of 2.667 East, 2.333 West and five NHL-wide. The average is just an average of course, but you could expect from 1-to-3 of the teams above to change before the end of the season, possibly making way for some combination of Atlanta, Boston, NY Islanders, Detroit, Vancouver, Nashville or Edmonton to see the post-season.

Sticking to the winning percentages since the Lockout this season, however, the average 8th seed winning percentage has been .566 in the East and .569 in the West. These percentages imply the East is currently just about on track for their 8th seed average. Said another way, Tampa Bay, playing just like they are now, has as good a shot as anybody of making it into the 2010 Playoffs.

The Western Conference, however, is, on average, inflated. But if .569 Hockey is the minimum requirement, the only other team within very close proximity at the moment is Detroit. That’s right – currently OUT of contention, the Red Wings. (This simply recognizes the delicate balance lost players, be it to trade or injury who otherwise were the core of a team’s winning ways, have on team performance. If you were thinking the opposing team who won a Game 7 in OT was ‘just lucky,’ you would be somewhat correct. It often times is more a surge of adrenaline for one side carrying them past the other’s momentary lapse which produces victory in that case. Either way, it is always a near thing when talking about being IN or OUT of a series.)

There are two spots to be holding in the top eight for each conference – Conference Champion and Runner Up. That’s because it is often said either of the two teams that get to that point could go on to the finals. The average winning percentage for Conference Finalists in the East is .638; in the West, it is .659. Runners Up in the conferences are .633 and .628 respectively. So from our current winning percentage listings above, the groups of teams that could fall into finalist seedings are:

Eastern Conference: New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Washington, Buffalo and Philadelphia

Western Conference: San Jose and Colorado (honorable mention to Chicago who is only a scant .003 beyond the numbers)

It is difficult to argue any of the above mentioned teams would not be plausible contenders for their respective Conference Finals. The only one that may throw some for a loop is Buffalo in the East due to their absence from the Playoffs over the last two seasons. (Just remember: if you are a Sabres’ fan or know your post-Lockout Playoff history, Buffalo WAS in the conference finals the two seasons they made it to the Playoffs.)

The Finals

So who from the whittled down group above makes it to the finals based on where we are today? The average winning percentage for Eastern Conference Stanley Cup Finalists is .638; out West, it is .659. That suggests Finals made up of one each Eastern and Western teams below:

Eastern Conference: New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Washington, Buffalo or Philadelphia

Western Conference: San Jose or Colorado

Who would you then pick from this group of teams to win it all? In the East, there are several considerations.

Post-Lockout, New Jersey has never made it past the 2nd Round of the Playoffs. But writing them off ignores the fact in three of those four seasons they met the eventual Eastern Conference Champion twice and Runner-Up once. Is this their year? Do they have what it takes to go back where they haven’t been since the turn of the century?

Pittsburgh has to be a favorite. They might have fooled you with their abysmal play in pre-season, but that time of year is an anomaly. They have been to the Finals the last two seasons and could very well go again. Which begs the question, how ‘old’ does a team have to be before the Stanley Cup hangover kicks in?

It would make sense that Washington could be seen in the Conference Finals as another progressive step toward The Cup. They are, after all, playing better than last season. And they are currently doing it without their number one scorer.

Buffalo? A lot of us, and by ‘us’ I mean me as well, wrote them off before the season started. No bug acquisitions over the summer, some key losses and a highly suspect blue line all suggested they might not be where they currently are in the standings. It arguably still remains to be seen how they will fare come mid-April as they traditionally start strong and begin to lose ground around the Game 30 mark.

And Philly would not be too far-fetched a choice for the Finalist. A prognosticator or two out there put them in the Finals prior to the season’s start. What the Flyers need to get there is a strong finish and its correspondingly good, winning tempo of play.

In the Western Conference, we have all been waiting for San Jose to come around. After last season’s terribly swift ending, Jeremy Roenick retired with the statement that maybe the reason the Sharks didn’t progress was because nothing really challenged them during the season. Well, something challenged them in their first 10 games because they only played .550 Hockey in that span but have come on strong since. As with past seasons, but with jaundiced eye, we will see how it goes after April 11th.

Hmmm… Colorado? The Avalanche. THOSE Avalanche? From last season’s #30 team with two rookie centers in their top three pivots to Conference Finalist? Because that just does not compute in your head well, it makes more sense to say San Jose will be the Finalist.

So who from this distinguished group raises The Stanley Cup?

If the average winning percentage of the post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champion is .665, the winner could come from any of those same teams above if they continued to win at their current clip and the average remained accurate as a Cup-hoisting fortune teller. The winning percentage is not enough to go on by itself.

Average goals scored for the winner has been 268.25 over the course of the season. Throwing that in the mix, for the above teams, the ones who could project those numbers include:

Eastern Conference: Washington or Philadelphia

Western Conference: San Jose

My hand is forced at this point, so I must make a selection. I would say then using the winning percentage model with the late add-on of average goals scored, the Finals could very well come down to Washington versus San Jose. Both have ample talent. Both are hungry. Does the Cup go East or West this year? There are no prevailing winds of history to hang our hat on here. The East took it in 2006 and 2009 and the West the intervening years.

History be damned, then. I side right now, based on what we know of this season with the “Is Party Now” crowd. Prior to Game 20, I call the Washington Capitals the Stanley Cup Champions.

Conclusion

It is early in the season, so calling the Capitals the Stanley Cup Champs is obviously premature. What will be interesting, however, is to follow the train of thought above from winning percentage analysis throughout the season and see if the calculations still come out the same.

To that end, I will revisit this analysis that leads me to a prognostication of the Washington Capitals winning the Stanley Cup this season at around Game 40 (New Years) and the Olympic Break.

Be back soon….

Odds, Ends, and FREE TICKETS - by Big Tex

A few odds, ends and random hockey thoughts going into the weekend:

ANOTHER GAME-WINNING SAVE: Tuesday night, NYR @ VAN. With the Canucks leading, 1-0, early in the 3rd, Ales Kotalik rings a slapper from the point off the post during a four minute Rangers power play. Chris Higgins gets his first of the year (FINALLY!) roughly a minute later, but it doesn’t matter: Vancouver wins, 4-1. That makes THREE Game-Winning Saves so far this season. It’ll be interesting to see how long the theory holds up…

DURING THE RANGERS' STINKFEST IN VANCOUVER, rookie call-up Dane Byers racked up 29 Penalty Minutes in the 3rd period. That's a good start for the kid, but he's no Randy Holt.

OFFICIALS 1, STARS 0 (OT): Wednesday night in Dallas…in Overtime…Stars’ d-man Nicklas Grossman is sent to the sin bin for chipping the puck over the glass from OUTside his own blueline. Last time anyone checked, that wasn’t a Delay of Game penalty. Refs win, but donate the “W” to Calgary in recognition of Jerome Iginla’s goal on the ensuing PP.

BIG TEX @ VANCOUVER @ DALLAS: Yes, I’ll be at the game tonight, Tweeting away on all things tweet-worthy. Follow along by following me @OGAs_BigTex

WITH ALL THE INJURIES to big-name players right now, why is it that there are still fantasy hockey leagues in which the likes of Rich Peverley and Ales Kotalik are free agents?

SPEAKING OF RICH PEVERLEY…Though I’d picked Thursday nights’ San Jose @ Detroit tilt as my Game 2 Watch for the week, I found myself caught up in the Blue Jackets – Thrashers game instead. I was left with the following impressions from the exciting, back-and-forth affair: Uppermost in my mind, these two clubs can no longer be dismissed as “expansion teams”, as they’ve both formed (if not fully formed) identities now. Atlanta is FAST and has a power play which is both exciting and lethal, even without Kovalchuk. In Columbus, Ken Hitchcock continues to preach defensive responsibility, but is beginning to embrace the offensive aspects of the game as the Blue Jackets’ skill level increases (among other things, this means that the ‘Jackets PP has improved dramatically since last season). I expect both clubs to challenge for playoff berths this season, and at least one of them to make it in.

LAST, BUT NOT LEAST: FREE TICKETS! It seems I’ve won two tickets to the Detroit @ Columbus game next Wednesday, 11 NOV. Unfortunately, I cannot justify spending over $500 on a plane ticket to attend the game, so I’m offering the tickets to the first BLUE JACKETS fan to Tweet or email me at matt@ongoalanalysis.com (Detroiters need not apply).

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Raw Charge on JabberHockey, Sunday, Nov 8th @ 5.30PM EST

This week, we are joined by Cassie McClellan from the excellent SB Nation Tampa Bay Lightning blog, 'Raw Charge'. As OGA continues its tour around the 'non-traditional market' NHL cities, we will talk to Cassie about the growth of the game in the greater Tampa area, a cold Vinnie, a hot Steven and one certain Agent Smith.

Go to our show page at blogtalkradio.com/jabberhockey and set an email reminder to join us this Sunday, November 8th at 5.30PM EST

We will also discuss the OGA games2watch, what our PQC has revealed this week and our fantasy roundtable, FanFantasy. Please join us with a listen or a phone call!

On Goal Analysis' weekly hockey talk show, JabberHockey is live every Sunday at 5.30PM Eastern. Topics vary each week as we highlight the lamps currently burning up the NHL. Always with a focus on our proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), we offer unique insight into each teams' chances of making post-season play...and the stories to unfold along the way. OGA Knows. And you can, too. Please join us!

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Eric Staal Watching Hockey

Can you imagine what must be running through Staal's head today. Game Day. Usual routines are on hold. That special breakfast or lunch that's been working lately is probably not on the menu.

Well, actually, nothing has been working lately.

The Hurricanes are winless in nine games. They have 7 points in the season thus far (tied with Toronto). To put it in early-season perspective, the struggling Wild have 10 points and the hot birds on ice, the Pittsburgh Penguins, have 24 points. Lest one forget, this is essentially the same Hurricanes team that battled the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.

What a difference a summer makes.

Including what must be one of the strangest days in Eric Staal's life as of the last few years. Tonight, Staal will watch the game from somewhere other than the bench or on the ice for the first time since 2004. Staal has played every game of his NHL career minus one in his rookie season in 03-04. He is currently third on the all-time 'iron man' list for most consecutive games played at 349. Second is Jay Bouwmeester (CGY) at 354 and the leader is current Coyotes' coach, Dave Tippett with 419 consecutive games.

Obviously, Staal has been the heart and soul of this team. And as his early season struggles continued (3 goals, 2 assists in 13 games), his team followed suit. Doubtless, when Staal returns healthy (and presumably rested), he will have had a chance to shake the cobwebs and perhaps find the back of the net again. He has at times comes out slow to start a season and then later hit his stride before the holidays. And while expected to miss at least three games, the team is going to have to play without their leader for the first time in five years.

Yesterday, the conference standings, updated manually each day in the 'Canes' locker room, has been wiped clean. Tabula Rasa? The Hurricanes sure hope so.

What an odd thing it will be for Staal to not lace 'em up tonight but rather watch the game... From a suite? From the press box? From the locker room, while riding a bike?

The injury is listed as 'upper body' and Staal is considered week to week. So what happens if Carolina wins tonight against Florida? And what happens if they keep on winning until Staal's return? I suspect, upon Staal's return, it will require some serious consideration on lineup changes for the holiday stretch. These early season points are too important to let slip by while a team is trying to 'find itself'. But one opportunity has arisen amongst the soul-searching: line combo experimentation.

No better time to try it out and see what works. It looks like Jussi Jokinen will be elevated to the first line and will have a chance to play with Tuomo Ruutu and Erik Cole. It's a good chance for Jussi to show off his sure hands and the team really needs him to perform. Getting Erik Cole back in the action after missing time with a fractured bone in his leg should help give the team a boost.

But the thing to watch here over the next 3 Staal-less games is experimentation on the line combinations. And if the 'Canes begin winning some games, when Staal is ready to come back, Paul Maurice will need to figure out how to insert the team's top center without interrupting any chemistry that may develop as opposed to going back to how things were.

Because it hasn't been working. And it all depends on how the team responds to the adversity. This 'iron man streak destruction' may be just the break the Hurricanes need to gather strength and find the way to win as a team. The players have nothing to lean on now - other than their own sticks.

The Octopus: A New Future Of NHL Coverage – The Colonel

“…I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth….”
President John F. Kennedy, May 25, 1961

In 1965, then President Kennedy’s words stood as a clear and poignant charge for the United States to take the lead in space exploration by placing an astronaut on the Moon. What had been Jules Verne’s science fiction of 1865 was to become science fact a bit more than 100 years later, but only a scant eight years after ordered to put the proper resources to the problem. Such statements, challenges and leadership enacted by future will and yet-to-be-discovered-resources altered many world viewpoints, to include how we even look (back) at ourselves.

In the spirit of throwing down a gauntlet to inspiring action, I offer The Octopus as a future way for us to watch the ‘Coolest Game On Earth.’ While some of what I speak of is possible now, as all forward-thinking ideas do, some other parts are offered as something yet to be.

Defining Another Way To Observe Our Favorite Sport

When we cannot physically get to the game in the arena, we turn on our TV/cable/satellite/radio to bring the game to us. Most often, we crave the visual stimulus but settle for radio, be it A/FM or satellite, when we do not have that other choice. It may be obvious to say it, but the majority of us either watches or listens to a given Hockey game outside of the arena. It is this fact that tells me we should always strive to improve the viewing experience.

I fully admit I do not know the technicalities of how the game is currently brought to us. But I do know the viewing experience we see is most often an angled, semi-overhead view that attempts to take in as much of the ice surface upon which the players skate as can be seen. This semi-vertical view of the game is useful, as it is for any sportscast, as a means of following and analyzing the game from a wide-angled perspective. Sometimes we see a shot from just overhead and behind the goalie when the puck is either leaving or entering the zone, too. And lately, there are times when you get an “OvechkinCam” view that only follows one particular player for the time he is on the ice.

Often times, replays of these recorded images from these vantage points are shown and a ‘they-did-THIS-then-THIS-then-shot-and-scored’ explanation of what we originally saw at 15-20 skating miles per hour (mph), 50-60 passing mph, and up to approximately 100 shooting mph is given. The sheer speed of the game often begs for a replay with some analysis, hence why we have our broadcast crew analyze and narrate the ‘tape.’ These perspectives of the game are all we know.

At the same time we can marvel after the fact at frozen images of a split second of a game’s time which truly relates the speed, struggle and emotion of what happens down at the horizontal, ice-level of the game. Just go to NHL.com, any team’s web page, or the Yahoo!NHL page where they have a photo gallery and every shot gives a glimpse of just how close or far a play was to/from success. It is the horizontal plane in which the players live and observe, orient, decide and act (John Boyd’s ‘OODA Loop’) that makes Hockey what it truly is.

We want that horizontal plane.

Said another way, we want the ability to see our Hockey in seamless 3-D. We want to see the images we are watching able to transition from the ‘normal’ overhead(ish) shot ‘down’ to the horizontal in order to take in a play from the perspective of the players and then back upward again. We want to be in the game, even though we are not. And somewhere in the future, we want to control how we see it as well.

The How Of ‘How Do We Do It?’ – The Octopus

A couple of things would be required were this to take place. If you watch college and NFL football, you often times see what I like to call the ‘flying camera’ – that camera on wires suspended over the field that moves just behind the play in an attempt to show you the players’ perspective. Football analysts often have the ability to review a play from just above and behind the players and/or rotate the picture to show it from different angles and perspectives. This is a great tool for football broadcasts.

For Hockey, however, a good friend who is an NHL analyst told me having a ‘flying camera’ above the rink will get in the way of the fan’s view of the game and that is NOT what the networks want to do. It would run completely contrary to why the networks are there in the first place. Agreed. What we need instead is the ability to get that perspective without the flying camera. We need The Octopus.

The maximum number of players in a game is 46 plus four on-ice officials. There are also 46 players’ sticks and the puck to follow. So the Octopus, or rather, Octopi, would be bubbles of 100 (to ensure a little redundancy) independently moving fiber optic cameras – tentacles, if you will – placed all over the rink at different, fixed points and ‘altitudes.’ Each individual tentacle would be slaved to a single player/official/piece of equipment at all times for a set angle of coverage. As a play went from one end to the other, the tentacles at each altitude would pass off their player/referee/stick/puck as it passed out of the field of view to the next tentacle along the line in the direction of movement. You therefore have an uninterrupted passage of the individual person or item down the ice being continuously recorded from multiple angles as they/it move. There is no flying camera, just several, fixed Octopi heads with waving tentacles inside. Together, they take many separate pictures which form the single, composite picture we see on screen. These kinds of cameras as pure hardware are available now.

As each player/official begins training camp, they would be scanned for their official 3-D image. Their all- around image is called up and put into each game’s database and tagged for a specific tentacle of the Octopus. This image is used to bridge camera rendering if necessary as the Octopus is manipulated by the broadcast team. The 3-D imaging and hard- and software processing capability are in their infancy and need money thrown at them to come to fruition.

A locating chip (or redundant chips) would be embedded in players’ and officials’ skates and sticks, goalie gloves and the puck. This chip would continuously signal where the player/referee, stick, goalie gloves and puck are in relation to the ice, in turn keying each dedicated Octopus tentacle to focus on that person/item from a myriad of different perspectives at one time. In most instances, you would want an image of the puck at all times and to know which player/stick/goalie glove is in contact with it to keep the proper camera perspective. Locating chips are NOT in their infancy – it just requires a chip maker to meet the specs you need for the job.

Because the requirement most of the time is to show where the puck went or is and the sequence of who touched it, the super computer runs a three-color coded, digital order of which player (or referee) touches the puck and when. All players from one team have a color, and the on-ice officials have the third. This color-coded, digital system embeds video ‘markers’ that make it very easy for the broadcast crew to tell where to cut their replay video based on a color-change of the list telling them where and when the puck was turned over. At some future point, if spectators are going to make their own ‘view’ of the game, these markers would be made available to them as well. This computer, and the compression required to port the digital stream efficiently over the airwaves/through the Internet is not yet here. Again, I know the‘ugly American’ answer is required – throw the money at it and the answer will come.

Those Octopus tentacle digital feeds and signals would be processed by a super computer ready to merge them with the player/referee/item’s official 3-D image. With that done, the computer can work with the actual recorded images from the Octopus, the location signals and the stored 3-D images to allow for a shot of the person/item from any perspective on the ice at any point in time they are there. Again, see above reference computer and signal compression requirements.

How The Octopus Would Work

A key goal was just scored in a Playoff series-defining game and the game has gone to commercial. Urgently, but with confidence borne of experience using the Octopus system, the broadcast team and production crew work to put together their slice of the goal. Using the color-coded, digital listing, they dial backwards from the goal scored to the turnover in the defensive end, then go for the standard overhead down to behind the player, ice-level shot for altitude. Once they are at the beginning of the breakout, they quickly review the play from front to back and divide up tracker ball duties for the fly-through commentary that will be set to ‘Follow Puck’ mode.

Back from commercial, the play-by-play analyst has a short lead in as the video shows the camera angle coming down from semi-overhead to just above ice level, timed perfectly to take up the horizontal shot as the puck is turned over. The super computer crunches the request to spin the angle control for the picture with the track ball by referencing several of the Octopus tentacles’ shots of players in the camera’s angle of view. It also references and renders the players with their stored, official 3-D image to make it look to the viewer like you have a complete 3-D view of the game no matter which way the angle rotates. The play-by-play commentator then walks the play through from start to finish at the near-horizontal perspective of the game, just like the players’ OODA Loops fought through it. At the end, he raises up the picture’s altitude, freezes the frame, spins it around to the opposite side of the ice and continues the sequence to show the puck leaving the last attackers’ stick and heading past the goaltender into the net.

Once the play-by-play analyst takes it to the goal scored, the color commentator takes control by picking up the recorded package that backs the play up to the first defending player missing the puck as it passes between two attackers in the neutral zone. This recording of actions by the defending team is at just a bit above the horizontal and pauses briefly from time to time in order to point out each of the defensive mistakes made. His angle seamlessly changes after explaining who missed their checks to the goalie’s perspective where he shows there is no way the netminder saw the shot coming because of the screening players to his front.
Elapsed time is 20 seconds as they transition to the next puck drop.

The Octopus is also used periodically during the game by the color commentator to show individual player’s efforts from their horizontal perspective, explaining the player’s OODA Loop because he/she has the personal experience to decipher the decisions made.

Advertised to be coming in the future is a subscription-based service with a spectator’s own track ball capability to receive an alternate feed that allows them to manipulate their own replays at will in order to better understand the game they are watching. It is a million(s) seller around the world and the NHL is the only sport leading the way on this charge to put their fans into the game.

Conclusion

The Octopus would be a system that neither blocks the viewing experience of the fan paying for a seat in the arena, nor annoys the spectator watching the game at home on their TV. It would also assist the broadcast crew in defining the game from the traditional, overhead shot down to the horizontal plane where players’ OODA Loops are executed. Not only is it used by broadcasters to illustrate their uniquely informed view of the game, but in the future, it would be used by fans as well to provide them with their own perspective of their favorite sport. In the process, the spectator/fan is periodically put into the game even though they cannot physically be there themselves, an innovation no other sport provides.

For these reasons, I advocate The Octopus as a future means of enhancing the game experience for the viewer.

The Panthers are now Dr. Malcolm Crowe - by Big Tex

For those of you who didn't read this post or haven't seen The Sixth Sense, Dr. Malcolm Crowe was Bruce Willis' character in the aforementioned film. Just like Dr. Crowe, the Florida Panthers don't know they're dead (as far as the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs are concerned). With their Game Ten loss to Ottawa, On Goal Analysis calls Florida at TEE TIME - OUT of the playoffs.

Obviously, this is a big disappointment, particularly after the Panthers came this [ ] close to making the playoffs last season, losing the 8th seed in the East to the (unworthy) Montreal Canadiens in a tie-breaker (there's no doubt in my mind that the Cats would've been MUCH more competitive against the Bruins last April). Unfortunately, not only are they NOT building on last season's almost-success, but Florida seems to have taken a step backwards. Key factors in the Panthers' demise:

1. A slow start for David Booth (9GP, 2-1-3, -5), followed by a concussion just as he seemed to be getting in gear.

2. Uneven goaltending. Thus far, Scott Clemmensen has not met expectations raised by his performance in New Jersey last season. Of course, he doesn't have the Devils playing in front of him, either. Tomas Vokoun simply hasn't been good enough for Panthers fans to forget about Craig Anderson.

3. The stats, man, the stats: In every key statistical category considered by OGA, Florida ranks no higher than 19th in the NHL. The two most important categories, however, tell you all you need to know: 2.10 Goals/game (28th) and 3.80 Goals Against/game (29th). In fact, the Panthers rank 28th or lower in 7 of 10 key stats. Ugh.

Though we've called Florida OUT, there's still a sliver of hope. After all, On Goal Analysis' Playoff Qualifying Curve-based calls are only right about 90% of the time, and the Panthers haven't dropped below the level of the PQC-busting 2007-08 Washington Capitals. We'll continue to monitor Florida throughout the season, and let you know if anything changes.

On a personal note, we OGA Boys really enjoyed having Whale4ever, aka Donny, of litterboxcats.com on JabberHockey (the OGA BlogTalkRadio show) last weekend. While we had a rather long list of questions for Donny, the hit on David Booth was (naturally) the primary topic. OGA extends to young Mr. Booth our best wishes for a speedy and full recovery, and not just because we have him on several of our fantasy teams.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

TOR@DAL - OGA at the Game