NHL at the Quarter Pole(-ish): Who's In, Who's Out

Now that the Detroit Red Wings have finally made it past the Game 20 mark AND we've finished all the Thanksgiving leftovers, it's time to look at the On Goal Analysis Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) again. Let's see which teams are now Chasing Stanley (IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs), which ones are at Tee Time (OUT of the playoffs), and which ones are neither here nor there.

Before we dive into all that, let us quickly recap OGA's calls at Game 10:

Chasing Stanley: Montreal, Tampa Bay and St. Louis.
Tee Time: None.
In The Curve: Everyone else.

Got all that? Good - let's move on to the State of the League at Game 20:

CHASING STANLEY

New additions to this semi-exclusive club are: Philadelphia (18 NOV), Washington (19 NOV), Los Angeles (22 NOV), Boston (24 NOV), Columbus (24 NOV) and Detroit (26 NOV).

Of these calls, Columbus was the biggest surprise, but made it in with solid goaltending/team defense and timely goal scoring from the bottom two lines. The Flyers were a bit of a surprise as well, if only because nobody (outside of Flyers' management) saw rookie goalie Sergei Bobrovsky coming. Goaltending is also the story in Boston, as Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask look like the best tandem in recent memory. The Kings have a young and talented team with scoring depth. Detroit and Washington are, well, Detroit and Washington: Chock full o'talent and piling up the W's.

TEE TIME

At Game 20, these teams formally entered the battle for the top pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft: New Jersey (20 NOV), NY Islanders (21 NOV) and Edmonton (23 NOV).

The entire hockey world is still in shock at the Implosion in Newark. Much has been written about New Jersey's problems, and there's no need for another blow-by-blow account here. The Readers Digest Condensed Version is this: All-World goalie Marty Brodeur has a bum elbow, but was looking VERY human before his injury, top winger Zach Parise is out for a few months with a knee injury, and the incredibly talented Ilya Kovalchuk is skating like he's carrying $100mil (in small bills) on his back. For the first time since 1995-96, the Devils will not play in the postseason.

The Islanders, on the other hand, are unsurprising. They're a young team with some talent but no depth, and two of their top players suffered long-term injuries before the regular season began. It took a game against the Devils to end the Isles' 14-game losing streak. Wait 'til next year, Long Island.

2010-11 is another rebuilding season in Edmonton. The Oilers' most talented players are still too young to carry the load, so chalk this campaign up as a learning experience, with a shot at another top draft pick at the end. On a related note, Oil Change, airing on NHL Network, is a fascinating look at what's going on with the Oilers. Check it out.

IN THE CURVE

Everyone else.

SUMMARY/A LOOK AHEAD TO GAME 30

Through Game 20, we've called nine teams IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs - four in the Western Conference, five in the East. Three more teams are now OUT of the playoffs - one Western, two Eastern. That means the fates of eighteen teams have yet to be decided.

By Game 30, we should see one more team called Chasing Stanley in the East, which will leave just two open playoff slots for the remaining clubs to battle over. Also in the East, at least two teams are in grave danger of reaching Tee Time before Christmas.

In the West, an extended hot streak could get one more team into the playoffs by Game 30, while a couple of clubs will need to get in gear just to avoid joining Edmonton at Tee Time.

Check back here for team status updates. As OGA knows, so will you.


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JabberHockey: 29 Cities Under Avalanche Watch

SUNDAY, March 28th at 5.30PM ET on JabberHockey:

On this week's JabberHockey, the OGA scoring line host David Driscoll-Carignan of Mile High Hockey.com - the SB Nation blog covering the Colorado Avalanche.

While most analysts are surprised to see the Avs in playoff contention this season, we at OGA called them at CHASING STANLEY (IN the 2010 playoffs) on October 22, 2009. OGA Knows.

And we cannot wait to talk to David about all things Avalanche as they prepare to give their future stars their first taste of NHL playoff action. It's valuable experience the team will build on for years to come.

29 other NHL towns are on notice. And we'll set the beacon call this Sunday.

Join us this Sunday as we examine the teams in playoff contention and give you the OGA insight on this week's JabberHockey.


On Goal Analysis' weekly hockey talk show, JabberHockey is live every Sunday at 5.30PM Eastern. Topics vary each week as we highlight the lamps currently burning up the NHL. Always with a focus on our proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), we offer unique insight into each teams' chances of making post-season play...and the stories to unfold along the way. OGA Knows. And you can, too. Please join us!

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JabberHockey - The Final 10 (Hockey's own March Madness)

Tomorrow at 5.30PM ET on JabberHockey:

This Sunday we look at the push to conclude the NHL regular season with each team having about 10 games remaining on their schedules.

It also means the OGA Report Card is close to being filled out. The OGA scoring line will give you the last furlong's analysis you've been waiting for on this week's JabberHockey.

Consider how the majority of pre-season analysts picked COL to finish last in the Western conference but OGA called them CHASING STANLEY (in the playoffs!) on October 22nd, 2009. Now you know why it's good to listen to JabberHockey. You can know what OGA Knows.

Join us this Sunday as we examine all teams in playoff contention and give you the OGA insight on this week's JabberHockey.

Join us live via telephone or in the chat room tomorrow at 5.30PM ET!

On Goal Analysis' weekly hockey talk show, JabberHockey is live every Sunday at 5.30PM Eastern. Topics vary each week as we highlight the lamps currently burning up the NHL. Always with a focus on our proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), we offer unique insight into each teams' chances of making post-season play...and the stories to unfold along the way. OGA Knows. And you can, too. Please join us!

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The Columbus Blue Jackets' 2009-10 Season: R.I.P. (Part 1 of 2)

Chicago at Columbus, 16 JAN 10

IN the 2008-09 season, the Columbus Blue Jackets qualified for the postseason for the first time since they entered the league in 2000-01. Columbus started the 2009-10 season strong, going 12-6-2 through their first 20 games to earn a call of CHASING STANLEY from On Goal Analysis on 19 NOV 09. After Game 20, however, the wheels fell off: The Blue Jackets stumbled through a disastrous 6-17-7 stretch, culminating with a 6-5 home loss to Chicago in Game 50 (16 JAN 10). That loss put Columbus so far below OGA’s PQC (Playoff Qualifying Curve) as to make a comeback virtually impossible, forcing us to call the Jackets a SHOT OFF THE POST, meaning…our original (IN) call was wrong, and we’re now sitting down to a dinner of Crow a l’orange. Like the fans in Columbus, we find ourselves wondering just what went wrong with this season, and where the organization might go from here. Let’s break it down:

WHAT WENT WRONG:

1. Goaltending – Steve Mason won the Calder Memorial Trophy last season for (essentially) carrying this team on his back to the playoffs. This season, his confidence has been damaged by the dreaded “sophomore slump”. Mason’s slump has been magnified by:

2. Team Defense – This team was carefully constructed by GM Scott Howson to play hockey the Ken Hitchcock Way; that is, a tight-checking, defense-first, grind-it-out style. This season, the Jackets have attempted to play a more wide-open, run-and-gun style (i.e., Chicago Blackhawks-style) at times. Unfortunately, while Columbus has the offensive talent to score goals, they lack swift-skating blueliners capable of both contributing offensively and hustling back to make the defensive play (i.e., the Blackhawks defensive corps). This, coupled with spotty backchecking from the forwards, has left both Steve Mason and Mathieu Garon exposed far too often.

3. The Kids – 09-10 was supposed to be the year for young Derick Brassard to develop into the number one center that he was projected to become. Instead, he’s regressed, as Coach Hitchcock has shuffled Brassard from the top line to the Press Box (for one game) to the fourth line, and everywhere in between. Brass has even played a couple of games on the wing…And speaking of wings, rookie (and future superstar) Nikita Filatov, after a promising showing in just 8 games last season (including a hat trick against Minnesota), made the club out of training camp, but spent the majority of his tenure either on the fourth line or in the Press Box. After averaging around 8:08 of ice time and scoring just two goals in 13 games, Filatov decided he’d had enough: He asked Howson to allow him to return to Russia, where he promptly recorded 5-9-14 in 12 games.

4. Leadership – Rick Nash is unquestionably Columbus’ best player, but…is he the Jackets’ best leader? The consensus seems to be that Nash’s leadership style is too quiet, too understated for this club, and he needs help. Scott Howson took a step in the right direction by trading for Washington’s Captain, Chris Clark, who has had an immediate (positive) impact in the room and on the bench. The full impact of Clark’s presence won’t be felt until next season, though.

5. The Coach – Bottom Line: Hitch gets paid to win games, and the Jackets’ tight-checking style leaves no room for rookie mistakes. How, though, can rookies learn and grow as NHL players in Hitch’s system? If anyone in the Columbus organization could answer that, the Blue Jackets wouldn’t be a Shot Off The Post. The Hitchcock Way is also tough on veteran players, and concern is growing that some of the older players might be/already have tuned Hitch out. Ironically, Ken Hitchcock had his greatest coaching success (the Stars' Stanley Cup win in '99) with a team made up largely of veterans, including FIVE current or former team captains. Today, he coaches a team with leadership issues, which also happens to be one of the youngest teams in the NHL. The question must be asked: Is Ken Hitchcock the right coach for the Columbus Blue Jackets at this time?

TOMORROW, PART TWO: Where does Columbus go from here?

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The Panthers are now Dr. Malcolm Crowe - by Big Tex

For those of you who didn't read this post or haven't seen The Sixth Sense, Dr. Malcolm Crowe was Bruce Willis' character in the aforementioned film. Just like Dr. Crowe, the Florida Panthers don't know they're dead (as far as the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs are concerned). With their Game Ten loss to Ottawa, On Goal Analysis calls Florida at TEE TIME - OUT of the playoffs.

Obviously, this is a big disappointment, particularly after the Panthers came this [ ] close to making the playoffs last season, losing the 8th seed in the East to the (unworthy) Montreal Canadiens in a tie-breaker (there's no doubt in my mind that the Cats would've been MUCH more competitive against the Bruins last April). Unfortunately, not only are they NOT building on last season's almost-success, but Florida seems to have taken a step backwards. Key factors in the Panthers' demise:

1. A slow start for David Booth (9GP, 2-1-3, -5), followed by a concussion just as he seemed to be getting in gear.

2. Uneven goaltending. Thus far, Scott Clemmensen has not met expectations raised by his performance in New Jersey last season. Of course, he doesn't have the Devils playing in front of him, either. Tomas Vokoun simply hasn't been good enough for Panthers fans to forget about Craig Anderson.

3. The stats, man, the stats: In every key statistical category considered by OGA, Florida ranks no higher than 19th in the NHL. The two most important categories, however, tell you all you need to know: 2.10 Goals/game (28th) and 3.80 Goals Against/game (29th). In fact, the Panthers rank 28th or lower in 7 of 10 key stats. Ugh.

Though we've called Florida OUT, there's still a sliver of hope. After all, On Goal Analysis' Playoff Qualifying Curve-based calls are only right about 90% of the time, and the Panthers haven't dropped below the level of the PQC-busting 2007-08 Washington Capitals. We'll continue to monitor Florida throughout the season, and let you know if anything changes.

On a personal note, we OGA Boys really enjoyed having Whale4ever, aka Donny, of litterboxcats.com on JabberHockey (the OGA BlogTalkRadio show) last weekend. While we had a rather long list of questions for Donny, the hit on David Booth was (naturally) the primary topic. OGA extends to young Mr. Booth our best wishes for a speedy and full recovery, and not just because we have him on several of our fantasy teams.

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