1. 4.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

What Are The Odds?

Depending on what your favorite team’s record is when they are one game shy of elimination, what are the odds of the next game knocking them out of the Playoffs? Based on Playoff results since the Lockout, they are:

When 0-3: 10-6 / 62.5%
When 1-3: 8-19 / 29.6%
When 2-3: 10-12 / 45.5%
When 3-3: 7-8 / 46.7%

So the chance of going 0-4 is the most slim and the reason everyone in Hockey says it is very hard to get that fourth ‘W’ and clinch any series.

The chances, however, once you begin a series 0-3 and win Game 4 of going on to win Game 5 constitute the lowest percentage of success in comparing ALL possible elimination scenarios. And when you team is either 2-3 or 3-3 in a series, the next game is almost a toss-up.

So where does that leave us in the next two days?

For tonight, odds are just in favor of Montreal winning the game. Face it, Boston has got Montreal’s number. What is likely to kick in to support the odds is a combination of home ice and Canadien pride. Look for the Habs to play at the top of their game and if they don’t win, everyone’s fear of Boston is likely to be justified.

On Thursday night, the odds are decidedly against Philadelphia. Again, they are playing a team that has their number to some extent and going onto opposing ice. The intangible in their favor when looking a decade backward is that it has been 10 years since a team in the finals has gotten out of the second round. If Philly wins tonight, it is on character and a better performance by Biron than Fleury.And the odds are in favor of Columbus pulling off a win in Game 4, but not by much.

As with the Flyers, they need to play flawlessly and their goalie needs to be better than the Red Wings’. And while Detroit has some chinks in their armor, they are not showing them right now. For us to see Columbus win with the odds, they are going to have to play a perfect game. Expect a donnybrook right out of the chute on this one.

Stay tuned to www.ongoalanalysis.com and the OGA Blogs and we will continue to update the percentages through the ’09 Playoffs.

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