Chicago and Florida's Problems, Tonight's Key Games

First, a few quick thoughts on Wednesday night's games, then a brief look at tonight's action...

CHICAGO: Good job beating the Sharks (6-5,SO), but...When I tuned in, the 'Hawks were already up, 4-1. Squandering a three-goal lead, at home, to an injury-depleted San Jose squad should set off alarms. In Joel Quenneville's system, Chicago's d-men are fully engaged in the attack. This system works best when your goalies demonstrate the capability to make saves on breakaways, but neither Khabibulin nor Huet have been up to the challenge of late. Last night's example:



And two from last Friday:




If the Blackhawks can't clean up this mess, they could be one-and-done in the playoffs.

FLORIDA: After taking a 3-1 lead early in the 3rd against a down-and-out Sabres squad, the Panthers - repeating what has become a theme of late - snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, losing the game, 5-3, and seriously damaging their rapidly dwindling playoff hopes. The keyword is consistently, as in "The Panthers of late have consistently failed to play a full 60 minutes." As a result of their spotty efforts, Florida has dropped three straight, and now sits in 9th in the East, two points back of Montreal, and the Habs have a game in hand. The Magic 8-Ball says, "Outlook not so good.", which brings us to...

THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAMES OF NOTE

Florida must go into tonight's game at Philadelphia with a Game 7 mentality. Simply put, they NEED a W here, while the Flyers don't. If the Panthers don't leave The City of Brotherly Shove with two points - particularly if Montreal beats Tampa Bay - then I'm afraid the decision to keep Bouwmeester will go down in the history books as a gamble that didn't pay off.

Nashville needs to take full advantage of a beat-up and tired San Jose team. As with Florida, the Preds NEED two points, while the Sharks just need to get healthy for the playoffs (but picking up a point to stay ahead of Detroit wouldn't hurt). As with Florida, the Preds sit 9th in the conference. Two points tonight, coupled with an Edmonton regulation loss at Phoenix, will put Nashville into 8th come Friday morning.

Calgary at Columbus has "1st Round Matchup" written all over it. The Flames have stumbled a bit of late, and need a W tonight to maintain their division lead over the onrushing Vancouver Canucks. Meanwhile, Columbus needs a W for a comfortable 5-point lead over the suddenly red-hot Anaheim Ducks, not to mention the need for a "statement game" against a potential 1st round opponent.

So many more: Edmonton desperately needs to beat Phoenix...St. Louis (where did they come from?) desperately needs to beat Vancouver...Ditto Montreal over Tampa Bay. Let's face it: At this time of year, there are more "Must Win/Must Watch" games than not. It's the time of year when dreams are realized and hopes are dashed, when many teams' playoff futures hang on a single power play, a single injury, a single goal. It is both beautiful and terrible, and it's merely a glimpse of what will come in the postseason. To (loosely) paraphrase General George S. Patton:

"Hockey...God help me! I do love it so."

Take me back to On Goal Analysis

OGA’s Analysis At Game 70

Game 70 in the 2008/9 NHL season has now passed for all teams. Where did the season go? Ahhh… a question some teams are asking themselves right now.

On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) offers a dissection of its proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) as it relates to calling teams IN or OUT of the Playoffs. This analysis will speak to what we think has already happened and what the last 12 games of the regular season may bring…

Out Traditional Three NHL Yardsticks at Game 70

For the Game 61-70 period, the NHL average against OGA’s PQC has increased from the historical 38.81 to the current 39.1. This is more than double the +.12 improvement at the Game 60 mark. The change is reflected in our three, league-wide yardsticks:

1. Average scoring per game is still up this season to an average of 5.843 goals per game from 5.567 in 2007/8. This stands as +.276 goals above last year’s per game average and an increase of +.4 goals over the last 10 games. Why the increase? Because of such games as TAMPA BAY’s 8-6 defeat of CALGARY on 1 MARCH and NASHVILLE’s 6-5 OT win over EDMONTON on 3 MARCH is the answer. In fact, 55 of 137 games tallied seven or more goals from 1 through 21 MARCH.

2. The number of OT/SO contests will likely rise higher than the month of February and stand about average with post-lockout, March averages. February’s total number of OT/SO games was exactly the historical, three-year average. With 10 nights to go in the month of MARCH, the League has seen 68.7% of ‘Bonus Hockey’ games than have traditionally occurred. This number of OT/SO games is a product of three things: wounded, starting goalies; wounded skaters; and the salary cap. The numerous injured players have forced the call up of players from the AHL and other leagues that require some experience to meet the NHL’s tempo, so errors in angles or coverage have occurred. And the cap has, in some cases, both dictated who could and could not be called up, and fostered team parity.

3. The gap between highest and lowest game-winning percentage for the League at Game 70 is now –33.8%. This is a continued decrease from the drop in the Game 60 gap of –39.94%. Your BOSTON’s and SAN JOSE’s whose victorious ways inflated the league winning percentages are now playing teams who have their number. BOSTON won more than eight-in-10 games from Game 11–50, and SAN JOSE, greater than 7.5. In Games 41 – 60, the BRUINS only played .525 Hockey and the SHARKS were at .450 for the Game 70 furlong. As with the Game 60 evaluation period, more teams played below the PQC than above it.How do these characteristics influence 2008/9 Conference play?

The Eastern Conference

The East ended the 70-game span above the historical average +.323, their highest gain against the PQC all season. This is an increase of +.593 from the same measurement at Game 60. The Game 70 stat rests below the League’s PQC average by almost –.27, but this is almost three times less than the gap from the last evaluation period. The Average standings difference from the 8th seed for teams not in a Playoff spot is –11.143 in the East, a spread barely under three-fourths of a game larger than at Game 50 and a huge variation from the same measurement ‘Out West.’ Why these trends? The East increased from 3-9-3 against the Curve to 6-6-3 during this period. While the East experienced a drop-off in the overall number of OT/SO games, this group of 15 won more games in regulation time than in their last, collective 10 games. And like our last report, the winning percentages for Eastern teams that will make the Playoffs indicate the overall model for this conference is just about right.

The Western Conference

Not so in the West. For the first time all season, this Conference fell below their traditional PQC. Their –.143 below the three year average is a significant drop from the +.333 they enjoyed at Game 60 (an overall drop of –.476!) and the season-long average of +.293. This is in large measure due to the below average play of the conference where the record against the Curve was 4-9-2. The Western Conference PQC is just above the NHL average by +.267, but this is another negative trend of a –.433 when compared to the Game 60 period. This is due to a combination of the overall drop in PQC based on play and the relatively small number of 17 games where teams played in OT/SO indicating losses are coming in regulation time. The average difference from the 21 March 8th seed to number 15 is –5.571 in the West, an increase of a full game from the Game 60 marker on 1 March. This continues the trend from Game 50 with an average increase of +.875 over the last 20 games. The significant drop in the Conference PQC, its comparison with the League PQC and the increase in distance between teams that could qualify and those below the Number 9 seed all serve to indicate the Western model is inflated and needs to be readjusted downward in terms of the minimum requirements to qualify for the 8th and final Playoff seed in the West.

How do your favorite teams look? Let’ see below:

IN The Hunt…

Back East, no new teams qualified for Chasing Stanley. So the RANGERS, MONTREAL, BOSTON, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA and NEW JERSEY all still remain ranked by OGA as teams that will qualify for a Playoff berth. BOSTON also mathematically clinched their Playoff berth just a hair after the end of the reporting period. While OGA predicted they might do so by Game 70, a below-BRUIN average of 5-4-1 this evaluation period ensued and put off the celebration a couple of games. PITTSBURGH continued to pick up the pace, moving up from the Number 8 seed on 1 March to Number 5 by 21 March. The RANGERS improved their trend from a terrible Game 51-60 performance with a 5-3-2 record that has them more solidly in the Playoff hunt. The significant negative trend is with MONTREAL who is in real danger of not seeing the Playoffs in this Centennial season. Traditionally, they win about eight and add an OTL in their final 12 games. This post-Lockout tradition needs to continue in order to make up for their harmful 6-13-1 Game 31 – 50 performance or they will see themselves displaced come 13 April.

Out West, no new teams qualified for Chasing Stanley just like back East. So SAN JOSE, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, VANCOUVER, CHICAGO and CALGARY are all still in the hunt. As predicted, SAN JOSE and DETROIT mathematically clinched their Playoff appearances during this period. VANCOUVER has continued their onslaught of the Western standings, losing only one in regulation and one in OT. MINNESOTA, though not yet eliminated, suffered their fifth evaluation period below the Curve, however. They are sinking fast as they only hold the 10th best winning percentage in the Conference, which the reintroduction of MARIAN GABORIK will likely impact. This team stands the best chance of being a Shot Off The Post – an incorrect call – this season.

On The OUTs…

In the Eastern conference, there is no change to teams ranked at Tee Time – eliminated from Playoff contention. The ISLANDERS, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, OTTAWA and TORONTO are still below the Playoff qualification line. Of note is the fact that four of the five played at or above the Curve this furlong, however, giving hell to the teams above them. They have collectively served as the most entertaining, unqualified-for-the-Playoffs teams in recent memory. Likely to join them a few games into the last furlong is BUFFALO who has stumbled mightily without RYAN MILLER. As with MINNESOTA, the SABRES sit with only the 10th best winning percentage in their Conference, are losing at the wrong time of year and sit with only one furlong above the Curve in the bank.

In the West, DALLAS joined ST.LOUIS, NASHVILLE, COLORADO, LOS ANGELES, PHOENIX, and ANAHEIM at Tee Time as this blog was being drafted. Their annual average of 5.67 games above the Curve at season’s end has slipped away and they will join a few other teams up in the stands that otherwise have not missed the post-season since the Lockout. They are a victim of a disjointed first half of the season, no SERGEI ZUBOV and BRENDEN MORROW and the loss of BRAD RICHARDS for several games with a broken wrist. So all seven teams at Tee Time out West are chosen and the other eight are Chasing Stanley, right? Not so fast…

On The Cusp…

Of most interest stand the rest of the teams who are not yet IN or OUT…

In the East, the interesting dilemma is if CAROLINA and FLORIDA make it in, is it the RANGERS or MONTREAL who get eliminated? The two, hottest teams in the NHL in the last 10 games have been the PENGUINS (8-2) and the HURRICANES (7-1-2). For the first time since their 2006 Stanley Cup victory, this team is poised to return to the post-season. For FLORIDA, MONTREAL and the RANGERS, the last two slots depend on the “W” and “L’s” for the rivals. It doesn’t take many “L’s” – in fact only two separate the three teams. Whoever plays to Win will be IN and one of the three will be watching the Playoffs in HD from their recliner. For our money, the most likely one is MONTREAL.

As you turn to survey the West, it is like stepping into a tornado. This is by far the most competitive Western Conference race we have seen since the Lockout. At the very outside edge of the disqualified teams who might still make their way back into the lower ranking slots are NASHVILLE, ANAHEIM and ST.LOUIS. Chances are slimmer for ANAHEIM and ST.LOUIS as their final outcomes are almost decided. NASHVILLE might JUST hang in there long enough to grab the Number 8 seed like they did last year. Besides CAROLINA above, no one is more poised to see the post-season who has not yet clinched a berth than COLUMBUS. Yes indeed, continue to play as they currently are, and the last of the NHL’s teams to not yet meet up with the post-season will be quickly called Chasing Stanley by OGA. Finally, EDMONTON will battle with MINNESOTA, NASHVILLE and the others mentioned above for their first game in the post-season since Game 7 with CAROLINA in June of 2006. If this were another sport, we would be watching at that singular, hold-your-breath moment when a cowboy leaps from his horse to grab the horns of a steer. Hang on – a couple more weeks will tell…

Looking Ahead

The Playoffs follow the Game 82 furlong. OGA’s look ahead will include series prognostications and blogging throughout the post-season. As a group, we cannot wait for that up-on-pins-and-needles, lose your breath excitement of the finality of the Stanley Cup run. These are Playoffs like no other sport can claim.In the meantime, there is still more Hockey to play and a few more seeds to be decided. OGA’s recommendation is to keep a sharp eye on those at the 6th through 9th (East) or 10th (West) positions for the rest of the season. Such pesky teams as TORONTO, OTTAWA, the ISLANDERS, ANAHEIM, ST. LOUIS and LOS ANGELES all hold the keys to other clubs’ ability to move on to the games of late spring. Stay logged in to On Goal Analysis to follow the calls…

To Everything, There is a Season

Turn, Turn, Turn. Right?

On Goal Analysis sees the Dallas Stars have fallen below the threshold on the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and OGA now calls them OUT of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (Tee Time).

But don't tell the team that news. They don't want to hear it and nor should they.

Obviously, the Stars know the rough road that lies ahead as they host the Vancouver Canucks tonight at the American Airline Center for the first of their remaining 10 games to the 2008/09 NHL season. With points at their premium, the Stars hope to fasten together 3 wins, one game at a time, in their 3-game home stand and then see where they go from there.

From the Stars website today, "The key, according to Mike Ribeiro, is focusing on the game ahead of you, rather than the big picture. Staying focused and staying positive are also vital components needed for a solid effort this week that will hopefully produce three much-needed wins. Don’t look at the rest of the season, look at the next game, the next period, the next shift. Give 100 percent every single minute you’re on the ice, and the success will come."

And it is absolutely true. However, this is what various players in a Stars' sweater have been saying for the better part of the past 3 weeks when they declared themselves to be 'in the playoffs now', fighting for the right to compete for the Cup. And if they have been measured one game, one period, one shift at a time, one must admit they have fallen short of the success they seek especially coming off a 3-game road trip (all losses) billed as their chance to get back into the race.

In other words, if this had been the playoffs, they would already be eliminated.

Yet the team is determined to not let the frustration creep in and affect their fading hopes of stealing that 8th and final seed in the west. The Stars, as they have proven this season, are true competitors and are not ready to give up the ghost. Despite missing key players for large chunks of the season (Morrow, Zubov, Lehtinen, Richards) and despite the on and off-ice distraction of the Sean Avery Show, the Stars have given their all through the ups and downs. There are things to build on for next year.

For example, Mike Ribeiro has been able to play in every game so far this season and leads the team in points with 68 (19G, 49A). Breakout player, Loui Eriksson, who had 14 goals last season, already has 33 goals for this campaign and is one of the few players on this team with a double-digit plus/minus stat (+12). James Neal is 2nd in the NHL in rookie scoring with 23 goals on the season. And Steve Ott, battling a broken hand for the middle part of the season, is having a career-year with 37 points (16G, 21A) as he does his part to carry the team on his back through an injury-ridden season.

But no player (or team in the NHL for that matter) will pointedly blame the 'injury ninja' (thank you, the Program) or other distractions for a team's struggle. Stars' goalie, Marty Turco paints it well with his quote on the Stars' site today :

“They’re numerous, and we could scroll down a long list of excuses that could be made [for missing the postseason], but this team is not all about that,” Marty Turco said. “As openly criticized as we are of the position we’re in, we’re not willing to really accept defeat through excuses. We’re going to see how it all plays out over the next 10 games.”

So, without 'accepting defeat through excuses', let's take a moment to examine a few random thoughts about why OGA believes, although hard-fought, this season will not end with the Stars sneaking into the playoffs:

• SERGEI ZUBOV. No, not only because he has missed all but 10 games this regular season, but because the Stars have, unfortunately, no real replacement (as if there could be) for one of the game's best puck-moving defensemen. Zubie sees the ice and the game at the same speed and with a similar vision to the Great One. Anybody who has watched the Stars (in seasons past) was familiar with his nonchalant, heads-up exit from the defensive zone into neutral ice, carrying the puck gently on his magnetic stick, leaving fore-checkers in his wake like children who have fallen off the inner tube behind the boat on a Texas lake any given summer. Zubov has been a fixture in Dallas for over a decade (since 1996) and I am sure this team is already thinking about what can be done in the off-season to come to terms with the fact he will have to retire at some point (38 years old). The hopes of last season wherein Matt Niskanen was given the chance to 'audition' for this role are all but vanished as the mentorship Zubie would have provided was shortened by injuries this season as well as the previous campaign. One has to wonder if the UFA Jay Bouwmeester will be notified this summer that the climates in Florida and Dallas are very similar when it comes to weather...and hotter in Dallas when it comes to hockey.

• UPS AND DOWNS.

1. Marty Turco started the season with a near 4.0GAA. Then shut the door and opened the window for a winning streak in the middle portion of the season - the 2nd period, as it were - giving the Stars a chance to win every game in December, January and February as he regained his former composure and confidence. And win the Stars did...including 12 of 17 in January and February. But come the 'third period' (Late Feb, March), the Stars are struggling again to win 2 in a row and instead have lost 5 consecutive games in this time-frame.
   
2. And speaking of 3rd periods, the Stars simply cannot score goals in the final frame of a game (28th in the league with only 56 goals in the third period) and only ONCE this season have they come back to win a game in the 3rd period when trailing. This is complete reverse from the Stars' teams of previous seasons wherein this club owned the 3rd period, outscoring their opponent and shutting them down.
3. The Stars, since the late 90s, have been one of the hardest teams to score against with Eddie Belfour's reign transitioning to Marty Turco's tenure back-stopping a disciplined and tight defense. One of the best shut-down defenses in the NHL has now become 23rd in the league this season in Goals Against (3.03). True, Dallas' defensive corps are young and the past two seasons are providing the experience the players need to adjust but to observers, this Stars team is almost foreign in their defensive play. This is sure to be addressed during the off-season.
   

• THE POWER PLAY. The Stars have scored 10 goals on their previous 90 Power Play opportunities. Enough said.

Over the past 2 weeks, many quotes from Coach Tippett and the Stars players have one common theme - we need everybody to play their top game in order to win. Since they have not been winning much over the past few weeks, the flip side here is the belief that not all players have been giving their top game every night. Games labeled as 'must wins' have looked like 'must get throughs' once the Stars fall behind on the scoreboard. Although the players and coaches will not blame injuries for the frustrations of this season, it may be true the frustrations, and increased responsibilities placed on young players, have snuck into the mission objective, unbeknownst to this team.

And as a fan, it's tough to see such an uphill climb at the end of the season for a playoff berth. Especially knowing how many 'knocks' this team has endured this season. Missing a true leader like Brendan Morrow, their captain, for all but 18 games has been frustrating. Having the majority of Dallas' hockey attention (from the rest of the NHL fan-base) devoted to a term like 'sloppy seconds' has been frustrating. Getting Brad Richards back after weeks of nursing, healing, rehabbing a broken left wrist only to watch him break his right one in the first game back is simply too much to endure.

But the next 10 Stars games should be fun to watch as they stay on message and stay focused on battling. 'Frustrating' can also be an opportunity for growth and character building. But the team must stare face to face with the battles of a long season and try not to let the 'speed bumps' get in the way of the race. As coach Dave Tippett stated,

“That’s something that you can let it eat you, or you can attack it,” Head Coach Dave Tippett said about the feelings of frustration. “I’ve always been a big believer in that you look at things like that head on and find solutions for them. It’s frustrating not winning hockey games when points are so big right now, but you’ve got to find a way to beat that and get on top of it. It can eat away at you and you’ve got to find ways to get it out of your system and bring the positive in and use the positive energy to get the results you want.”

Here, Here, coach. OGA doesn't mind you proving us wrong on our call - a potential OGA Shot off the Post. In fact, we wouldn't mind buying a few playoff tickets and do what we can to help support the economy. (The beer's not cheap, but neither is success.)

I saw one commenter on a blog suggest an Avery Curse. Get real. How about 'what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger'? So although OGA says the Stars playoff hopes are dead at Tee Time for this season, we reserve the right to believe they can only come back stronger.

But perhaps not this season. For everything, there is a season...and what a season it has been.

Super Mario and One of the Reasons I Love The NHL

I was enjoying a quite Saturday, killing time before the STARS/SHARKS game and happened to go to NHL.com. If you wait on the picture window to roll over to the PENGUINS, the top link on the left is one of the reasons I love the NHL.

From that link, you see Mario Lemieux honoring a request from the Make A Wish Foundation to play some shinny with young Dean who has beaten cancer, a regular activity for Mario and the PENGUINS to support.

I spent a year in BAGHDAD where I found over and over again that kids are kids, no matter the language, all over the world. Of the more than 1900 times my Brigade's Soldiers experienced enemy contact in 11 months, by far the mission we enjoyed most was anything we did with children. From rebuilding schools, handing out coats, caps and gloves, to passing around soccer balls, baseball gloves and stuffed animals, the smile of an IRAQI child with a "SHU-KRAN (Thank YOU!), Mister," was some of the best effort we gave to that nation.

I have an even more soft spot in this old Colonel's heart for children than before I went over. Mario and the PENGUIN's work with the Make A Wish Foundation, as well as the many other charities Hockey players and the League give time, energy, and effort for, stands among one of the key reasons I will forever be dedicated to spreading the love of this Great Game.

Trade Deadline Report Card, Part 1

Back before March 4th, On Goal Analysis offered the opinion that the trade deadline came too late NORMALLY each season, and that this year’s extension into March would make movement of players even less relevant for this season. Is this a correct or incorrect statement?
OGA has kept an eye on the 48 players that moved at the Trade Deadline (T.D.) through the first five games with their new team. To determine whether our statement is valid or not, we have done a simple comparison of a traded player’s contribution to his new team in terms of: goals scored; assists earned; fight participation (for its potential momentum changes in games); games won by a goalie; and/or games lost by a goalie. So how did the League as a whole fair, and what contribution did individual teams receive for their T.D. efforts?

T.D. AND THE LEAGUE

We cannot assess the claims above without providing you some statistics. For the sake of transparency, we must also say that this is a one-season study.

There were 48 Player moves which occurred on T.D. Day. From this pool of evaluees, there were a total of 17.385 players who did not play in available games. (The “.385” represents a portion of the potential five games not played by a player. An example is BOSTON’s STEVE MONTADOR only playing four-of-five games, making him a “.8 Player” for the evaluated timeframe.) These ‘DNP’ Players include the likes of ATLANTA’s ERIC O’DELL, a 17-year old prospect playing for the SUDBURY WOLVES where he has scored 46 points in his first 26 games with that club. His trade value to the THRASHERS is obviously as a future, potential starter with the club.

From these 48 players, there were a possible 240 games where any of the five actions stated above could have taken place. Based on the DNP’s above, 99 total games were ‘lost,’ leaving 141 ‘ACTIVE’ games’ statistics to pour over. The five activities fell out like this:

24 Goals
36 Assists
4 Fights
2 (Goalie) Wins
2 (Goalie) Losses

This can be interpreted in one of four ways:

1. Average Events For ALL Players = 1.42
2. Events For ALL Players/For ALL Possible Games Played = 0.284
3. Average Events Per ACTIVE Player = 2.22
4. Events Per ACTIVE Player/Per Game Played = 0.482

How do these averages stack up? If you look at PITTSBURGH’s EVGENI MALKIN, he has been a part of 102 of the event types listed above over 71 games. This gives him an event per game average of 1.42, almost one entire event more on average than those traded at the deadline.

INDIVIDUAL T.D. PLAYER AFFECTS ON TEAMS

Those last, four statistics seem to indicate teams are not getting much bang for their buck when measured against our five possible events. Who IS getting value for their efforts?

There are two ways to look at team value for their trades in this comparison. First is overall value, and second is per Player value.

In terms of overall value, here is how teams have fared so far:

PHOENIX – (4G, 9A, 2 Fights) +15
ANAHEIM – (2G, 4A) +6
CALGARY – (6G) +6
CAROLINA – (1G, 5A) +6
COLUMBUS – (2G, 4A) +6
NY RANGERS – (2G, 3A) +5
PHILADELPHIA – (3A, 2 Fights) +5
PITTSBURGH – (1G, 4A) +5
TORONTO – (2 Wins, 2 Losses) +4
TAMPA BAY – (3A) +3
BOSTON – (2G) +2
EDMONTON – (1G, 1A) +2
SAN JOSE – (1G, 1A) +2
DALLAS – (1G) +1
CHICAGO – (2xDNP) 0
ATLANTA – (DNP) 0
LOS ANGELES – (DNP) 0
OTTAWA – (DNP) 0
ST. LOUIS – (DNP) 0
COLORADO – (0-FOR-2 GAMES) 0
FLORIDA – (0-FOR-5 GAMES) 0
BUFFALO – (0-FOR-6 GAMES) 0

In the analysis above, PHOENIX seems to be running away with the race to prove their trade value contrary to the initial outcry from fans thinking they were giving away the team. Indeed, there is not one game in their first five that at least one T.D. Player has failed to make an impact in one of our five categories.

But also in PHOENIX’s case, the numbers come from the combined efforts of six Players. So perhaps a better way to look at it is the average value per active player:

CAROLINA – (1 Player) +6
COLUMBUS – (1 Player) +6
PHILADELPHIA – (1 Player) +5
PITTSBURGH – (1 Player) +5
TORONTO – (1 Goalie) +4
CALGARY – (3 Players) +3
NY RANGERS – (2 Players) +2.5
SAN JOSE – (.8 of a Player) +2.5
PHOENIX – (6.4 Players) +2.34
ANAHEIM – (3 Players) +2
TAMPA BAY – (2.6 Players) +1.15
BOSTON – (1.8 Players) +1.11
DALLAS – (1 Player) +1
EDMONTON – (2 Players) +1
ATLANTA – (DNP) 0
LOS ANGELES – (DNP) 0
OTTAWA – (DNP) 0
ST. LOUIS – (DNP) 0
CHICAGO – (2xDNP) 0
COLORADO – (.4 of a Player) 0
FLORIDA – (1 Player) 0
BUFFALO – (1.2 Players) 0

In this case, PHOENIX drops from number 1 to number 9. But COYOTES fans should not get down on management – the average value per active player could be much lower given the number of Players we are talking about here. And of the six T.D. Players we are speaking of, four of them have contributed at least three of the events we are assessing. (Nice job out in the desert!)

SOME SPECIAL CASES OF NOTE

There are six Players/teams of note as you can see from the average value per active player above:

CAROLINA’s reacquisition of ERIK COLE paid immediate dividends when he provided 1 goal and 5 assists in the first three games after the T.D. COLE’s goal was the third in a 3:31 span of the first period in his first game back, and four of his five assists came in Game 2’s 9-to-3 defeat of TAMPA BAY. All three games in which he contributed with an ‘event’ were HURRICANE victories.

ANTOINE VERMETTE has had 3 goals and 3 assists since arriving in COLUMBUS spread out over four of the first five games. While his first game as a ‘JACKET was a loss, the others in which he contributed were all victories.

DANNY CARCILLO is the horsepower behind PHILADELPHIA’s ranking. He provided a total of 3 assists in Games 2 and 5, and fought in both Games 2 and 3. In all three of those games, PHILLY won. Conversely, Games 1 and 4 in which he did not contribute an event, the FLYERS lost.

PITTSBURGH’s +5 is all BILL GUERIN. He came right in and was put on a line with SIDNEY CROSBY, scoring 1 goal and four assists in the his first three games as a PENGUIN. As with CARCILLO to his east, the two games in which he was absent from the score sheet were losses for the PENS, although they were both ‘1-Pointers’ (a Shootout).

Of the 30 potential games in which T.D. goaltenders could have played, only five were. MIKAEL TELLQVIST spelled PATRICK LALIME for a BUFFALO loss in the third game following the deadline. But TORONTO’s MARTIN GERBER evenly split the first four games after the T.D. between wins and losses.

Finally, CALGARY’s OLLI JOKINEN came right in and was placed on the top line with JEROME IGINLA and MICHAEL CAMMALLERI in Game 1. He promptly netted 2 goals, including the game winner. He scored a total of 3 more goals in Games 4 and 5 including the un-counted Shootout winner against DETROIT in Game 5. Not added in here are the five points he scored in Game 6, a losing effort in TORONTO, but a game in which he personally was involved in 83% of all FLAMES’ scoring. Many have said, and it is hard to argue, that JOKINEN is the best catch of the T.D.

CONCLUSION

As is always the case, some teams are getting value, some are possibly going to in the future, and some have yet to reap any rewards in terms of T.D. Player performance.

Is OGA’s claim that the T.D. comes too late to really help teams correct or not? For 36.4% of the 22 teams acting on that day, play through Game 5 as assessed indicates OGA is right on the money since they have no events from their new Players on the stat sheet. It is hard to argue with the fact that for all ACTIVE Players, the average contribution is less than one-half of one event per game. And when viewed in terms of average value per active player, all but four teams fail to receive an average positive value of at least one contribution per game played from any of the T.D. Players they secured.

These may not be YOUR measurements of Player impact after the T.D., and as always, you are cordially invited to get into the crease and call us out for our analysis. We won’t end it here, but you won’t get the final report card until after the Playoffs where we can judge overall effort per game with more data to pull from.

From the desk of The Colonel, as always, there will be more to follow…

Vancouver, Los Angeles, and the Third Kind of Lie

Mark Twain once quoted Benjamin Disraeli, saying:

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I was reminded of this quote while looking at the team statistics for both Vancouver and Los Angeles at the Game 70 mark. As I type this, Vancouver has overtaken Chicago for the 4th spot in the Western Conference, and is just 3 points behind Calgary for the division lead (and with it, the 3rd playoff seed). OGA called the Canucks IN the playoffs way back on November 20th, and their 8-1-1 surge over the last ten games has cemented their place in the postseason.

At the other end of the spectrum, Los Angeles is currently 13th in the West, sitting 7 points out of the 8th, and final, playoff berth. On Goal Analysis called Los Angeles OUT of the playoffs on January 31st, and they would need a hot streak on the magnitude of Pittsburgh, New Jersey, or Vancouver in order to prove OGA wrong.

Based solely on standings and record over the last ten games, the Canucks and Kings would seem worlds apart, and growing further apart with each game. Looking at certain team statistics, however, paints a surprisingly different picture. Consider the season-long performance of both teams, for the following categories:

Power Play...VAN: 18.9%(17th)...LAK: 20.1%(11th)
Penalty Kill...VAN: 80.2%(20th)...LAK: 82.8%(T-7th)
Shots/gm...VAN: 28.5(T-23rd)...LAK: 29.8(14th)
Shots Against/gm...VAN: 29.1(10th)...LAK: 27.6(2nd)
Win % when Scoring 1st...VAN: .683(14th)...LAK: .686(T-11th)
Faceoff win %...VAN: 51.3%(T-7th)...LAK: 52.3%(T-3rd)

Given the current playoff picture for both teams, those statistics are quite surprising. The next logical question is: What, then, has put Vancouver in 4th place in the West and Los Angeles in 13th?

The answer is found by applying Occam's Razor: Goals. Goals, both For and Against, separate these two teams.

GF/gm...VAN: 3.00(10th)...LAK: 2.59(23rd)
GA/gm...VAN: 2.64(6th)...LAK: 2.81(T-13th)

Scoring more and allowing fewer goals gives Vancouver the edge in two other critical categories: Win % when Trailing 1st and Win % when Leading after 2 periods.

Tr 1st...VAN: .345(14th)...LAK: .171(28th)
Ld after 2...VAN: .893(10th)...LAK: .840(24th)

Coming back after allowing the first goal in a game and holding a lead through the 3rd period are critical to overall success. Both of these stats are traced directly back to goals. Vancouver has a goal differential of +22, while Los Angeles is at -20, and that, ultimately, is why the Canucks are CHASING STANLEY, while the Kings are at TEE TIME.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis

Solving The West

Here at On Goal Analysis, we are working diligently to provide you the best possible call of IN or OUT of the Playoff picture. In so doing, we offer the below chain of logical thought…

The bane of everyone’s predictive existence is the Western Conference where the intense competition makes is most difficult to make predictions. In order to assist, we here at OGA provide you the following notes on the West.

1. As we slice and dice it, we come up more and more with the answer for points/Wins required to secure the 8th seed as approximately 91/45.5.

2. But what is the absolute best in points/Wins any particular team can do between now and the end of the season? The answer falls out something like this:
SJS – 128 / 64
DET – 125 / 62.5
CHI – 113 / 56.5
CGY – 112 / 56
VAN – 109 / 54.5
CBJ – 102 / 51
EDM – 101 / 50.5
DAL – 100 / 50
NSH – 99 / 49.5
MIN – 98 / 49
STL – 98 / 49
ANA – 96 / 48
LAK – 96 / 48
PHX – 88 / 44
COL – 87 / 43.5

3. Does this mean 13 of 15 teams qualify if the magic number of points is 91? Heck no! The issue is that no team above is likely to Win each and every one of their remaining games. This is especially so when the teams above have to play those ‘Four Point Games’ against teams within their Conference between now and the end of the season:

SJS – PHX, NSH, DAL, COL, CHI, NSH, PHX, CGY, EDM, ANA, ANA, COL, PHX, LAK (All remaining)

DET – CGY, EDM, NSH, STL, MIN, NSH, CHI, CHI (8-OF-12)

CHI – CBJ, EDM, LAK, SJS, VAN, STL, NSH, CBJ, NSH, CBJ, DET, DET (12-OF-15)

CGY – DAL, STL, DET, CBJ, MIN, SJS, DAL, MIN, LAK, VAN, EDM, EDM (12-OF-13)

VAN – DAL, STL, PHX, DAL, STL, COL, CHI, MIN, ANA, EDM, COL, CGY, LAK, COL (All remaining)

CBJ – CHI, CGY, STL, STL, NSH, NSH, CHI, CHI, STL, MIN (10-OF-12)

EDM – STL, COL, CHI, MIN, DET, PHX, ANA, MIN, ANA, SJS, VAN, LAK, CGY, CGY (All remaining)

DAL – VAN, CGY, SJS, VAN, LAK, PHX, LAK, CGY, STL, MIN, COL, ANA (12-OF-13)

MIN – COL, EDM, CGY, EDM, VAN, CGY, DET, DAL, NSH, CBJ (10-OF-13)

NSH – LAK, ANA, SJS, ANA, SJS, LAK, DET, CBJ, CHI, CBJ, CHI, DET, MIN (All remaining)

ANA – NSH, PHX, PHX, NSH, COL, EDM, COL, EDM, VAN, SJS, SJS, DAL, PHX (All remaining)

STL – EDM, VAN, CGY, LAK, VAN, CBJ, CBJ, CHI, DET, DAL, PHX, CBJ, COL (All remaining)

LAK – NSH, CHI, STL, DAL. NSH, LAK, PHX, PHX, CGY, EDM, VAN, LAK (12-OF-14)

COL – MIN, EDM, SJS, ANA, VAN, ANA, PHX, VAN, SJS, DAL, VAN, SJS (All remaining)

PHX – SJS, ANA, VAN, ANA, EDM, SJS, DAL, COL, LAK, LAK, STL, SJS, ANA (All remaining)

4. Teams measured against their Conference winning percentage, and rounding upward or downward to the next, half-game (an OTL), means teams should more accurately win the following number of their remaining games:
SJS – 9 games
DET – 5.24 in Conference and 2.89 against the East = 8 games
CHI – 6.96 in Conference and 1.86 against the East = 8.5 games
CGY – 6.92 in Conference and .62 against the East = 7.5 games
VAN – 8 games
CBJ – 4.53 in Conference and 1.11 against the East = 5.5 games
EDM – 6 games
DAL – 5.77 in Conference and .54 against the East = 6 games
MIN – 3.96 in Conference and 1.59 against the East = 5.5 games
NSH – 7 games
ANA – 7 games
STL – 6 games
LAK – 4.85 in Conference and 1 against the East = 6 games
COL – 6 games
PHX – 5 games

5. Often times, however, reality is somewhere between what they have done this season, do on average against the foes listed above, and what their current Winning percentage is. That said, they should Win something between their current, overall Winning average and the above:
SJS – 9.5 games
DET – 8.5 games
CHI – 9 games
CGY – 8 games
VAN – 8 games
CBJ – 6 games
EDM – 6 games
DAL – 6.5 games
MIN – 6 games
NSH – 7.5 games
ANA – 6.5 games
STL – 6.5 games
LAK – 6.5 games
COL – 5.5 games
PHX – 5.5 games

6. So final points/Wins should be closer to this:
SJS – 14 119 / 59.5
DET – 14.5 118 / 59
CGY – 8 102 / 51
CHI – 8.5 101 / 50.5
VAN – 6.5 97 / 48.5
CBJ – 3 90 / 45
NSH – 1.5 88 / 44
DAL – 2 87 / 43.5
EDM – 2.5 85 / 42.5
STL – 1 85 / 42.5
MIN – 2 83 / 41.5
ANA – 1 83 / 41.5
LAK – 0 81 / 40.5
COL – -4 74 / 37
PHX – -4 73 / 36.5

7. Well it says plain as day that the number 6, 7 and 8 seeds should have between 87 and 90 points. How can we claim 91 points will be the requirement? A couple of reasons make a final prediction particularly difficult:

Interestingly, Dallas does not play either team, so they will rely on a combination of their own ability to win and that of the other two to lose in order to raise their final point total.

COLUMBUS and NASHVILLE, however, play each other twice before regular season’s end. If those teams do NOT split the pairing as predicted in the estimate of games won immediately above, then one of two things will happen:

NASHVILLE Wins both: NSH finishes with 90 points and CBJ with 88
COLUMBUS Wins both: CBJ finishes with 92 points and NSH with 86

And lastly, to really complicate the matter, all three teams have shown a POTENTIAL to surge in a 12 game stretch this season that is different from the average predications above:

CBJ – 7.5 of 12, which would give them up to 93 points
DAL – 9.5 of 12, which would give them 93 points
NSH – 8.5 of 12, which would give them 90 points

NASHVILLE in the above case, however, would have to finish with 91 points for reasons pertaining to OGA's Playoff Qualifying Curve we would rather not divulge.

8. So, to sum up the above, the race for final Playoff positions in the West looks to come down to COLUMBUS, DALLAS and NASHVILLE (with a potential for ST. LOUIS to be a wrench in the works) who will finish somewhere between the wickets below:

CBJ: 88 – 102 points
DAL: 87 – 100 points
NSH: 86 – 99 points

Lucky for us the final call is STILL undecided and high drama to the end is coming. It will take a close watch of COLUMBUS, DALLAS and NASHVILLE – with ST. LOUIS being the team for COLUMBUS and DALLAS to beat and NASHVILLE to root FOR(!) – in order to solve the Western puzzle.

Anybody want to discuss how the Stanley Cup winner has averaged 56 wins since the Lockout and no team has repeated a visit to the Finals since 2001 as they relate to DETROIT or SAN JOSE’s chances of representing the West in June?

The Nashville Predators at Game 70

On January 6th, On Goal Analysis called the Nashville Predators OUT of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As of March 17th, the Predators are playing like a team determined to be a Shot Off The Post for OGA, and they may very well accomplish their goal. What changed in Nashville over the last two months? Let's take a look:

1. The return of Alexander Radulov...oh, wait: he's still in Russia.

2. The trade deadline blockbuster, in which the Preds...sent Cal O'Reilly and Alexander Sulzer down to Milwaukee. Hmmm...perhaps not.

3. The return of Steve Sullivan...yep; that's it.

Steve Sullivan's return to the ice after missing 153 games has been huge for Nashville, particularly over the last ten games. After an understandably slow start, Sully has found his groove, racking up 5 G, 7 A, and a +6 over this furlong. I can't find the link, and I can't remember exactly where I read this statement, so I'll apologize in advance to whomever I lifted this from:

"The return of Steve Sullivan could be (is) the equivalent of a major free agent signing."

Sullivan's scoring outburst has typified the Preds through the last ten games: Jason Arnott (6G,4A,+1), David Legwand (6G,4A,+9), J.P. Dumont (3G,10A,+3), Shea Weber (4G,5A,+5), Joel Ward (4G,5A,+4), Martin Erat (2G,6A,+3) and Ryan Suter (2G,6A,+1) have all made major contributions.

At the other end of the rink, Pekka Rinne has been stellar, posting rather gaudy numbers over the last ten games (7-1-0, 2 SO, 2.25 GAA, .919 sv%). Rinne was named NHL Rookie of the Month for February, and has sparked debate over which Central Division goalie might be more deserving of the Calder Trophy. As long as Rinne continues to perform at this level, the debate will rage on.

Taken as a whole, how do the Predators look at Game 70? Let's break it down:

Nashville went 7-2-1 over the last ten games, a significant improvement over their 5-4-1 record leading up to Game 60. Apparently, there's some sort of relationship between goal scoring and the W (note the use of sarcasm font here), as the Predators boosted their G/gm average to 2.50 (27th in the NHL) at Game 70 vs 2.30 (30th) at Game 60. While still ranked 29th in the league, the team's efficiency on the Power Play is up almost a full point, to 14.1% at Game 70 vs 13.3% at Game 60.

On the defensive side, team GAA has dropped to 2.70 (8th) at Game 70 vs 2.75 (T-9th) ten games ago. The Penalty Kill has also improved, to 84.7% (3rd) at Game 70 vs 83.8% (T-4th) at Game 60. The Preds are allowing roughly the same number of shots per game (29.3 now vs 29.2 at Game 60), so red-hot goaltending has been key.

Over the last ten games, Nashville has become a stronger first-goal team, with a win pct. when scoring first of .757 (7th) now vs .742 (9th) at Game 60, and a win pct. when trailing first of .212 (24th) now vs .172 (25th) at Game 60. The Preds are becoming a better shut-down team, too, posting a win pct. when leading after two periods of .913 (T-6th) now, compared to .882 (13th) ten games ago.

In short, the Nashville Predators are one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now. If they can sustain this level of play, the Preds will be playing after April 12th, and On Goal Analysis will be eating crow.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis

The New York Rangers at Game 70

What a difference a coaching change, a kid from Kazakhstan, and a New & Improved (yet same old) Avery make...

While the Rangers' 5-3-1 record under new head coach John Tortorella isn't cause enough to write epic poetry, it's a vast improvement over the Blueshirts' 2-6-2 slide into Game 60. Besides the shift from the L column to the W column, what other trends do we see? Under Torts' aggressive attacking system, New York is scoring more at Game 70 (2.40 G/gm) than they were at Game 60 (2.33 G/gm), though they've actually slipped from 29th to 30th in the NHL due to Nashville's sudden goal explosion. As the team becomes comfortable with the new system, look for their G/gm average to continue this upward trend.

Remember the old saying, "The best defense is a good offense"? As the Rangers have increased pressure at the other end of the rink, team GAA has fallen, from 2.72 GA/gm at Game 60 to 2.64 GA/gm at Game 70 (6th in the NHL).

As you might expect based on the above stats, the PP is trending upward, to 14.6% at Game 70 (27th) vs 14.0% at Game 60. The PK has improved as well, to a league-best 87.2% at Game 70 vs 87.0% at Game 60. New York is also shooting more (32.3/gm vs 32.0/gm) and allowing fewer Shots Against (29.8/gm vs 30.2/gm).

General Manager Glen Sather did quite well at the trade deadline, picking up Nik Antropov from Toronto for a second round and a conditional draft pick, and getting blueliner Derek Morris from Phoenix in exchange for forwards Petr Prucha and Nigel Dawes and orange traffic cone Dimitri Kalinin. In six games with the Rangers, Antropov has 3 G(including 1 game-winner) and 2 A, while Morris has 2 Assists, both coming on the Power Play.

The possibility exists, however, that re-entry waiver wire pick-up of Sean Avery might just be Sather's most significant long-term move. The Rangers were in dire need of jam, and Avery provides plenty on every shift. This is exactly what what was expected of The Reviled One. What was completely unexpected, however, was Avery's 4 Goals (including 2 PPG), 1 Assist in his first six games. Think he's happy to be back on Broadway?

Scott Gomez is another happy camper. He has clearly benefited more than any other Ranger from the recent changes, picking up 4 G (including 1 PPG & 1 GWG) and 6 A, and going +7 over the last ten games. Ryan Callahan is a close second, with 3 G, 4 A, +1 over the same span.

Whether or not Sather can sign Antropov and Morris over the summer is a question for another time. Right now, the Rangers are back in the fight, trending upward in multiple key statistical categories as they head into the homestretch and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Provided they continue on their current track, the Blueshirts will be the lower seed nobody - not even the red-hot New Jersey Devils - wants to play in the first round.

Postscript: Petr Prucha will be sorely missed. I sincerely hope he scores 30 in Phoenix next season, because he gave New York 100% every night and deserves that kind of success. If/when he does, I will burn Sather (and Renney) in effigy yet again.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis

How Does The ‘In The Curve’ Gang Stack Up?

So there is On Goal Analysis (OGA), making bold claims of teams’ ability to qualify for the playoffs starting as far back as 24 October 2008. As you look at www.ongoalanalysis.com you see three teams each in the East and West that are sitting at the OGA call of ‘In The Curve’ – playing on an average level, neither IN nor OUT of the Playoffs at this time.

“What?” you ask? "But just how does OGA’s proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) see the final Playoff positions being decided?”

Back East

If you are looking at the OGA home page sidebar, you can see that seven teams have been called Chasing Stanley, a Playoff berth clinch, in the standings. Of the three teams In The Curve, who is most likely to earn the remaining Playoff berth? As we project out the PQC to the end of the night on April 12th, the FLORIDA PANTHERS have the most potential to finish with a post-season bid.

But translated from the PQC into the difference in winning games, there is only one game each separating FLORIDA, CAROLINA and BUFFALO in order. Even tighter is the variation in current winning percentage of each team. From FLORIDA to CAROLINA, there is a .9% spread. That’s right, the PANTHERS are winning just under 1% more than the ‘CANES, or, over an 82 game season, only less than one more game. I would say it doesn’t get much closer than that, but there is only a 1/4 of 1% deviation between CAROLINA and BUFFALO which translates to less than one Overtime Loss (OTL)

But wait! As of games completed on 10 March, a glance up and down the line shows FLORIDA outpacing The RANGERS in jockeying for Playoff position. This equates to a hair’s breadth of a lead to OGA as the PANTHERS’ distance in front of NEW YORK in terms of potential wins is only the same as what stands between CAROLINA and BUFFALO.

This all comes down to the fact that OGA stands by its calls of IN the Playoffs and says as of 10 MARCH it looks like FLORIDA is the front runner to secure the eighth Playoff spot, never mind the seed. BUT, and this is a HUGE ‘BUT,’ CAROLINA could out distance all of them if they continue playing .800 Hockey, and short losing streaks by FLORIDA and BUFFALO may see them out of the Playoffs all together.

Out West

In this continental direction, OGA says there are only six teams Chasing Stanley, so two playoff berths are up for grabs. Of these three In The Curve teams, who is most likely to move on to the post-season ? Calculated for April 12th OGA style, COLUMBUS and EDMONTON are those two teams. The STARS’ recent losing woes are their difference here. In translating everything to simple WINs, the BLUE JACKETS and EDMONTON are about one win and one OTL apart, while DALLAS follows EDMONTON by a scant OTL.

“But just a doggone minute!” you exclaim. “I can count, and the difference between 8th and 13th in the West is only two wins! That could change in one weekend…”

Basically, OGA agrees with you. Any three-game losing streak can be a season-ender, just like DALLAS is harming their chances by displaying an historical 9 – 17 record (.346 Hockey) from 1 – 10 MARCH since the Lockout.

“And MINNESOTA is ranked 9th right now, yet you say they are still Chasing Stanley? Come on!” Actually, dropping south of VANCOUVER in the current standings, our as-of-10-MARCH projection of the possible last three teams to survive the regular season in the West in order are, COLUMBUS, MINNESOTA, and EDMONTON barely nudging out NASHVILLE.

If the higher-ranked team loses to the lower, or if a team drops two or three straight games, the order of magnitude of the “L” in this conference is severely damaging to Playoff hopes. Just about ANY West-on-West game is at a ‘must-see’ level of excitement.

Conclusion

The above are projections from teams’ potential stature at season’s end. The In The Curve gang is a tight-knit bunch who could come unraveled if any mini-skid occurs. Seen another way, any of these teams could shut all of we pundits up if they just start pocketing the ‘W.’

The Kenny Chesney song was called, and advises us, ‘Don’t Blink.’ Because just as not blinking in a small town means you miss the only stop sign in those parts, doing so instead of watching these teams duke it out to 12 April means you miss potential changes in the final standings NIGHTLY.
So saddle up, Ladies and Gentlemen. The final, wild ride to the NHL’s FIRST finish line is already on…