Solving The West

Here at On Goal Analysis, we are working diligently to provide you the best possible call of IN or OUT of the Playoff picture. In so doing, we offer the below chain of logical thought…

The bane of everyone’s predictive existence is the Western Conference where the intense competition makes is most difficult to make predictions. In order to assist, we here at OGA provide you the following notes on the West.

1. As we slice and dice it, we come up more and more with the answer for points/Wins required to secure the 8th seed as approximately 91/45.5.

2. But what is the absolute best in points/Wins any particular team can do between now and the end of the season? The answer falls out something like this:
SJS – 128 / 64
DET – 125 / 62.5
CHI – 113 / 56.5
CGY – 112 / 56
VAN – 109 / 54.5
CBJ – 102 / 51
EDM – 101 / 50.5
DAL – 100 / 50
NSH – 99 / 49.5
MIN – 98 / 49
STL – 98 / 49
ANA – 96 / 48
LAK – 96 / 48
PHX – 88 / 44
COL – 87 / 43.5

3. Does this mean 13 of 15 teams qualify if the magic number of points is 91? Heck no! The issue is that no team above is likely to Win each and every one of their remaining games. This is especially so when the teams above have to play those ‘Four Point Games’ against teams within their Conference between now and the end of the season:

SJS – PHX, NSH, DAL, COL, CHI, NSH, PHX, CGY, EDM, ANA, ANA, COL, PHX, LAK (All remaining)

DET – CGY, EDM, NSH, STL, MIN, NSH, CHI, CHI (8-OF-12)

CHI – CBJ, EDM, LAK, SJS, VAN, STL, NSH, CBJ, NSH, CBJ, DET, DET (12-OF-15)

CGY – DAL, STL, DET, CBJ, MIN, SJS, DAL, MIN, LAK, VAN, EDM, EDM (12-OF-13)

VAN – DAL, STL, PHX, DAL, STL, COL, CHI, MIN, ANA, EDM, COL, CGY, LAK, COL (All remaining)

CBJ – CHI, CGY, STL, STL, NSH, NSH, CHI, CHI, STL, MIN (10-OF-12)

EDM – STL, COL, CHI, MIN, DET, PHX, ANA, MIN, ANA, SJS, VAN, LAK, CGY, CGY (All remaining)

DAL – VAN, CGY, SJS, VAN, LAK, PHX, LAK, CGY, STL, MIN, COL, ANA (12-OF-13)

MIN – COL, EDM, CGY, EDM, VAN, CGY, DET, DAL, NSH, CBJ (10-OF-13)

NSH – LAK, ANA, SJS, ANA, SJS, LAK, DET, CBJ, CHI, CBJ, CHI, DET, MIN (All remaining)

ANA – NSH, PHX, PHX, NSH, COL, EDM, COL, EDM, VAN, SJS, SJS, DAL, PHX (All remaining)

STL – EDM, VAN, CGY, LAK, VAN, CBJ, CBJ, CHI, DET, DAL, PHX, CBJ, COL (All remaining)

LAK – NSH, CHI, STL, DAL. NSH, LAK, PHX, PHX, CGY, EDM, VAN, LAK (12-OF-14)

COL – MIN, EDM, SJS, ANA, VAN, ANA, PHX, VAN, SJS, DAL, VAN, SJS (All remaining)

PHX – SJS, ANA, VAN, ANA, EDM, SJS, DAL, COL, LAK, LAK, STL, SJS, ANA (All remaining)

4. Teams measured against their Conference winning percentage, and rounding upward or downward to the next, half-game (an OTL), means teams should more accurately win the following number of their remaining games:
SJS – 9 games
DET – 5.24 in Conference and 2.89 against the East = 8 games
CHI – 6.96 in Conference and 1.86 against the East = 8.5 games
CGY – 6.92 in Conference and .62 against the East = 7.5 games
VAN – 8 games
CBJ – 4.53 in Conference and 1.11 against the East = 5.5 games
EDM – 6 games
DAL – 5.77 in Conference and .54 against the East = 6 games
MIN – 3.96 in Conference and 1.59 against the East = 5.5 games
NSH – 7 games
ANA – 7 games
STL – 6 games
LAK – 4.85 in Conference and 1 against the East = 6 games
COL – 6 games
PHX – 5 games

5. Often times, however, reality is somewhere between what they have done this season, do on average against the foes listed above, and what their current Winning percentage is. That said, they should Win something between their current, overall Winning average and the above:
SJS – 9.5 games
DET – 8.5 games
CHI – 9 games
CGY – 8 games
VAN – 8 games
CBJ – 6 games
EDM – 6 games
DAL – 6.5 games
MIN – 6 games
NSH – 7.5 games
ANA – 6.5 games
STL – 6.5 games
LAK – 6.5 games
COL – 5.5 games
PHX – 5.5 games

6. So final points/Wins should be closer to this:
SJS – 14 119 / 59.5
DET – 14.5 118 / 59
CGY – 8 102 / 51
CHI – 8.5 101 / 50.5
VAN – 6.5 97 / 48.5
CBJ – 3 90 / 45
NSH – 1.5 88 / 44
DAL – 2 87 / 43.5
EDM – 2.5 85 / 42.5
STL – 1 85 / 42.5
MIN – 2 83 / 41.5
ANA – 1 83 / 41.5
LAK – 0 81 / 40.5
COL – -4 74 / 37
PHX – -4 73 / 36.5

7. Well it says plain as day that the number 6, 7 and 8 seeds should have between 87 and 90 points. How can we claim 91 points will be the requirement? A couple of reasons make a final prediction particularly difficult:

Interestingly, Dallas does not play either team, so they will rely on a combination of their own ability to win and that of the other two to lose in order to raise their final point total.

COLUMBUS and NASHVILLE, however, play each other twice before regular season’s end. If those teams do NOT split the pairing as predicted in the estimate of games won immediately above, then one of two things will happen:

NASHVILLE Wins both: NSH finishes with 90 points and CBJ with 88
COLUMBUS Wins both: CBJ finishes with 92 points and NSH with 86

And lastly, to really complicate the matter, all three teams have shown a POTENTIAL to surge in a 12 game stretch this season that is different from the average predications above:

CBJ – 7.5 of 12, which would give them up to 93 points
DAL – 9.5 of 12, which would give them 93 points
NSH – 8.5 of 12, which would give them 90 points

NASHVILLE in the above case, however, would have to finish with 91 points for reasons pertaining to OGA's Playoff Qualifying Curve we would rather not divulge.

8. So, to sum up the above, the race for final Playoff positions in the West looks to come down to COLUMBUS, DALLAS and NASHVILLE (with a potential for ST. LOUIS to be a wrench in the works) who will finish somewhere between the wickets below:

CBJ: 88 – 102 points
DAL: 87 – 100 points
NSH: 86 – 99 points

Lucky for us the final call is STILL undecided and high drama to the end is coming. It will take a close watch of COLUMBUS, DALLAS and NASHVILLE – with ST. LOUIS being the team for COLUMBUS and DALLAS to beat and NASHVILLE to root FOR(!) – in order to solve the Western puzzle.

Anybody want to discuss how the Stanley Cup winner has averaged 56 wins since the Lockout and no team has repeated a visit to the Finals since 2001 as they relate to DETROIT or SAN JOSE’s chances of representing the West in June?