1. 4.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

The New CBA Effect: MTL Through NYR – The Colonel

Previously, I analyzed 15 teams’ current list of players’ contracts against the recommended model for the Next CBA. (See “The Next CBA: Part I”, “The Next CBA: Part II”, ANA through CGY (U.2), CAR through DAL (U.2), and DET through MIN (U.1).)

Below is analysis of MTL, NSH, NJD, NYI and NYR. This blog uses current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA on these teams. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Onward Through Two-Thirds of the NHL

MTL – Scott Gomez’s salary meets the FCP I standard and Mike Cammalleri’s AAV equals FCP III status. There are no players meeting FCP II criteria.

The only problem is Gomez turns 31 early this season and has three additional years left on term. Designated as the FCP I under this CBA, he will see a raise of $3.44M in one year of his contract, require a one-year exception, and lose one year of term to UFA status. Cap change = $1.148M AAV / $3.443 total while playing but a total of -$3.914M due to one lost term season

If designated as the FCP II – not FCP III, Cammalleri’s contract is good as written with a one-year salary increase to the FCP II maximum. Cap change = $300K AAV / $1.2M total

Cammalleri should be the FCP II so Tomas Plekanec can be designated the FCP III as most advantageous to the team’s monetary bottom line. Based on his age, he could serve all but the final year normally, receive a one-year raise to the FCP III maximum of $6M, and then get a one-year exception in his contract’s final season. Cap change = $200K AAV / $1M total

Brian Gionta turns 32 at mid-season with three seasons following, and Jaroslav Spacek turns 37 with one more tacked on. If they are both granted the one-year exception, their contracts complete as written. Cap change = $0

Dustin Boyd, Mathieu Darche, Tom Pyatt and Alexandre Picard do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change = $550K AAV and total

Montreal is facing nine players’ contractual adjustments with a - $1.164M total change to payroll. One player (Gomez) loses one year of contract term in the transition.

NSH – No current team players equal FCP I, II or III status.

Martin Erat is 28 years old this season with four additional seasons on term. As an NFC, he can hold a three-year contract, be granted a one-year exception and then must go UFA in his last contract year. Cap change = -$900K AAV / -$4.5M total

David Legwand needs a one-year exception for term plus age and Francis Bouillon needs a one-year exception for age to retain their current contracts as is. Cap change = $0

Jonas Andersson, Wade Belak, Cal O’Reilly and Sergei Kostitsin do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change = $437.5K AAV and in total

Colin Wilson’s ELC pays him over the maximum plus bonuses. Cap change = -$439.5K AAV / -$879K total

So the Predators face a relatively mild amount of correction in their ranks with eight players under review for a total change of -$988K AAV / -$4.942M total. The Predators lose one player for one term season as a UFA.

NJD – Patrick Elias meets FCP III status. No other players meet FCP I or II status at this time.

Elias turns 35 prior to the end of this season. With a one-year exception, he still loses one year of term. Cap change = -$2M AAV /-$6M total

If not designated as an FCP, Anton Volchenkov’s age and term catch up to him. He turns 29 in mid-season this year with five years following. He can play three years of the current agreement straight-up, plus one year as an exception, and then loses two term years to UFA status. Cap change = -$708.3K AAV / -$4.25M total

Brian Rolston will be 38, Colin White will be 32, and Bryce Salavador will be 35 at mid-season with an additional year on term. Henrik Tallinder turns 32 at mid-season with three additional seasons on contract. And Martin Brodeur turns 39 at season’s end. All will need a one-year exception to continue their contracts as written. Cap change = $0

Rod Pelly, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, Anssi Salmela and Mark Fraser do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change = $704.2K AAV / $987.5K total

The signing of Ilya Kovalchuk and extensions for Zach Parise and Jamie Langenbrunner notwithstanding, the Devils have a bit of correction to make for 11 players under the proposed CBA. The total change for new CBA contract adjustments is -$1.544M AAV / -$9.263M total from 2010-11 through 2015-16. They also have two players (Elias and Volchenkov) with two total years of lost term.

NYI – There are no players that meet FCP I, II or III status.

Rick DiPietro turns 29 before the season starts and has a following 10 years of term thereafter. With the one-year exception, he still loses six years of term to UFA status. Cap change = -$2.455M AAV / total of -$27M

Andrew MacDonald, as an NFC, needs a one-year exception to complete his current contracts. Cap change = $0

John Tavares, Josh Bailey and Kyle Okposo, three cornerstones for the future of the Islanders, are all overpaid on their ELC. Cap change with maximum bonuses is -$3.315M AAV / -$5.78M total

The Islanders have five players affected under the proposed CBA. The total Cap change is -$2.98M AAV / -$32.78M total spread out from this season though 2020-21. The club also has DiPietro losing six years of contract term based on new CBA contract definitions

NYR – The Rangers have several issues here, dollar-wise. Marian Gaborik meets the criteria for designation as the team’s FCP I. But Chris Drury, Henrik Lundqvist and Wade Redden all meet criteria for FCP II’s, and no player meets the mark as the team’s FCP I.

As the FCP I, Gaborik is set – he reaches age 32 in the last season of his current contract. The team also has to pay him on any one of the seasons in his current agreement at the FCP I maximum of $10.8M. Cap change = $825K AAV/$3.3M total

Drury is age 34 this year with one additional season remaining. With only one year left on his contract at age 35, he is able to serve out the time with a one-year exception. But he would have to serve at the NFC maximum, and could receive bonus money to make up the difference from his current contract’s salary. Cap change = -$1.288M AAV / $0 total with bonuses to compensate

Henrik Lundqvist is most likely to be designated the team’s FCP II. With that designation, the only change to his current contract is a one-year bump to the FCP II maximum. Cap change = $81.3K AAV/$325K total

Wade Redden cannot be designated as an FCP II based on his current age of 33, turning 34 at season’s end this year. Under proposed CBA language, he can serve two years as is on term, seek a one-year exception and then spend his last contract year as a UFA. Cap change = -$2.167M AAV/-$6.5M total

Derek Boogaard’s current contract can remain intact with a one-year exception. Cap change = $0

Brain Boyle’s LMC is below the minimum, so he is due a raise in 2010-11. Cap change = $165K

Mats Zuccarello-Aasen is overpaid on his ELC. This player’s Cap change = -$465K AAV/-$929K total

If you are a Ranger fan, that wasn’t as painful as you thought it would be, was it? Sure you might have wanted to see someone other than Redden as an early UFA. But ‘it is what it is.’ The total count is seven contracts needing adjustment. With the bonus money to Drry to honor his current dollar figure, the Cap change = -$91K AAV/-$3.693M total. NYR also has one player (Redden) with a total of one years of lost term.


The team in best shape here are the Islanders with five players’ contracts requiring a fix on a new CBA. The Islanders have DiPietro losing six years of term, and three ELC’s will lose millions of dollars above the ELC maximum, leaving an overall Cap change of almost $33M.

Next best is the Ranger’s surprisingly minor seven players’ contract adjustments. They are 3-1-3 in terms of dollar gains, no change and losses for players. Overall, the losing side is greater with a -$91K AAV / and a total of -$3.693M. Only Wade Redden loses a year of term from the team.

The Predators are in the middle of this pack with eight affected players. They stand at just under -$1M AAV / just under -$5M total in contract adjustment dollars. And one player loses one year of current term.

The Canadiens have one more player with contract review requirements than NSH. But their AAV is only a -$194K with a -$1.164M total contract difference. Scott Gomez is their lone term loser for one season, but his numbers are partially offset by his designation as the team’s FCP I.

And finally, without Kovalchuk under contract, the Devils sit with 11 players requiring changes, an increase in Cap Space of almost -$9.263M total, and two players losing two total years’ term.

Through 2/3 of the NHL, the averages are: 8.5 players affected per team (slight up-tick from the half-way point); for an average team payroll difference of -$11.87M; and with 1.15 players losing 2.55 years of term. Closing the circumvention loophole at the half-way point in NHL team analysis indicates all teams have contractual work to do (great, more lawyers…), that practically every team will save money by shaving off contract term, and that the players taking it most on the chin are teams’ most talented veterans and rookies. In return, there is more UFA time for more players in the league.

But we will keep our eye on the numbers as we complete the last 10 teams’ analysis.

The next five teams up for analysis will be OTT, PHI, PHX, PIT and SJS.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to DET through MIN (U.1)

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