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Monday, August 23, 2010

The New CBA Effect: CAR Through DAL (U.2) – The Colonel

This blog has been updated with new financials, some reworking of the course of action to cover team contracts under the proposed, new CBA, and with charts to show the money matters facing teams.

Below, I analyze teams’ current contract regimens as if the new CBA in “The Next CBA: Part I” were to be applied this season. While several examples of how the recommended CBA affects Management/The League and Players in “The Next CBA: Part II”, there has been some commenting and traffic about specific team impacts.

This is the second of six blogs with by-team analysis on this subject. (Note in “The Next CBA: Part I” there is new language reference Offer Sheets to FCPs. Thanks for the comment, Davegeek!) The first blog in this six-blog series covered ANA through CGY, and I am now poised to provide CAR through DAL.

These six blogs use current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Without further ado, on to the one-time Whalers.

Teams Six – 10 In NHL Alphabetical Order

CAR – Eric Staal meets FCP I status and Cam Ward meets FCP II status. No players meet FCP III status.

Staal would require an increase in salary any one season over the term to the FCP I maximum if so designated. Cap difference = $425K AAV / $2.55M total

Ward would also require an increase in any one season’s salary over term to the FCP II maximum. Cap difference = $150K AAV / $900K total

Tom Kostopoulous, Tim Gleason and Joe Corvo must be designated as NFCs. Cap change = $0

Jerome Sampson, Justin Peters, Jiri Tlusty, Pat Dwyer, Jay Harrison and Brett Carson, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K. Sampson and Peters would also get a second year at $725K Cap change =$1.163M in 2011-12 and $412.5K in 2012-13 AAV. Total Cap adjustment is $1.575M over the next two seasons with no players losing contract years.

For the Hurricanes, the total number of players requiring more than just a contract re-designation is 11 with a total Cap change of $5.026M in dollars. The team also has no players losing any contract years.

CHI – Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Brian Campbell all meet FCP II status in terms of dollars. No players meet FCP I or III status.

In an attempt to make a complicated salary structure in the Windy City simple and within the new CBA, here is how to proceed. With possibly the least amount of turmoil, you ignore the fact the Kane and Toews originally got a similar dollar and term contract and designate Toews as the FCP I, Kane is designated the FCP II, and Keith the FCP III to maximize the dollars and term on those contracts.
Toews as the FCP I would have at least one season designated at the FCP I maximum of $10.8M. Cap difference is $900K AAV / $4.5M total.

Kane as the FCP II would receive a one year pay raise to the FCP II maximum and complete the rest of his contract as written. And under the assumption the ‘Hawks want to keep Toews and Kane’s dollar figures and term the same, they can round out the money with an annual $720K in bonus money to Kane over his term. Cap difference is $180K AAV, but $4.5M total to the team with the bonuses in place

And then there’s Duncan Keith as the FCP III at age 27 this season with an additional 12 years left on his contract. Due to the age 32 FCP limit with one-year exception possible, his current contract receives a small raise to the FCP III maximum for one year before it expires into UFA status at Year 8. Cap difference =$65.9K AAV / $462K total while playing and a total of -$33.231M lost in UFA status.

Brian Campbell turns out better as an NFC with bonuses than he would have as the FCP II. With turning 32 this season and on an NFC maximum contract, he can only play normally through the 2012-13 season, secure a one-year exception before turning into a UFA for his last two years of current term, and have the team, in a gesture of good will, make up the difference from his current salary to his NFC in bonus money. Cap change = -$1.356M AAV / $0 total over term he can play with bonuses, plus the loss of two seasons’ salary for a total of -$14.286M. This provides a net change of -$14.286M

As an NFC, Marian Hossa will be 32 years old this season with a contract taking him for another 10 seasons. After Year 5 (2013-14) of his current contract, the team can request a one-time exception to keep him in Year 6 after which he will become a UFA lose four years on his current contract. There likely needs to be a “Hossa Clause” in the CBA to allow for players who lose term to have their current contracts at whatever amount they can serve honored as written, even if it busts the FCP rules.
In this case, Hossa would get a new AAV difference of $2.625M / total of $13.125M over the five seasons he can play and lose -$18.525M on the back end. This is why any new CBA will be difficult to agree upon. Without that change, however, he has a Cap change of $0 while playing and a total of -$18.525M in the six lost term years.

Dave Bolland, as an NFC, will be age 25 this season with four years left on his contract. He needs a one-year exception granted to his current contract to complete terms. Cap difference = $0

Niklas Hjalmarsson, will be age 24 this season with four years left on his contract. He needs a one-year exception granted to his current contract to complete terms. Cap difference = $0

Cristobal Huet ‘s loan to Fribourg-Gotteron in Switzerland removes his Cap Hit from CHI’s books. Under the assumption he will be on loan for both years, the Cap change would be -$5.625 AAV / -$11.250M total.

Bryan Bickell, John Scott, Jack Skille, Jake Dowell, Fernando Pisani, Jordan Hendry, and Nick Boynton, as holders of LMCs, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Bryan Bickell and John Scott would also get $725K in year two of their current agreement, and Bryan Bickell would net $750K in Year 3. Cap difference = $1.158M AAV /a total of $1.725M

So you’re thinking the Blackhawks were crazy to blow up their Stanley Cup winning team now? If this new, proposed CBA went into effect this season, they would have 15 players requiring contract attention with a Cap AAV change of -$5.693M. The Cap dollar difference would be-$79.545M spread out in various amounts from 2010-11 through 2022-23, due in large measure to four players losing 17 years of contract term against the current Cap (including Huet). In CHI’s case, a new CBA would not even really give a GM a clean slate to preside over.

COL – Paul Stastny meets FCP II status. No players meet FCP I or III status.

Stastny, by virtue of his designation as the team’s FCP II, receives a one-season raise to $7.2M. Cap impact = $120K AAV / $600K total.

Kevin Porter, David Koci, and Kyle Cumisky, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Cap difference = $265K AAV and total

Matt Duchene’s ELC would pay more than allowed. His maximum with bonuses would be $1.273M and $1.298M before the end of his ELC period. Cap difference = -$1.915M / -$3.829M total

The Avalanche are in pretty good shape. There are only four players with issues in the new CBA for a total of -$2.964M with no players losing any contracted term

CBJ – Rick Nash meets FCP I status. No players meet FCP II or III status.

Nash is age 26 this next season with seven additional years left on his contract. He needs a one-year exception to this contract (because he turns 32 in Year 7 of his eight-year contract) and a raise in one year to the $10.8M Cap Hit Ceiling to maintain his current contract, most likely in the last season when he is set to receive an $8.2M salary. Cap difference is $325K AAV / $2.6M total

Derick Brassard and Rostislav Klesla need one-year exceptions to NFCs and then would be allowed to serve out their current contract. Cap difference = $0

Derek Dorsett, Andrew Murray, Mike Blunden, and Grant Clitsome, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Derek MacKenzie and Derek Dorsett would also get $725K in year two of their current agreement. Cap difference = $485K AAV /$635K total of $610K

Jacob Voracek’s ELC with maximum bonuses is just under the requirement for this season. Cap difference = $2,167

The Blue Jackets’ eight players with issues is not a major hurdle to overcome. They owe players some money, however. The total cap difference is $3.237M, with the largest single chunk of change going out to Rick Nash in the last year of his contract. With a pair of one-year exceptions for specific players, there are no players losing years of contracted time off of their term.

DAL – Brad Richards meets FCP I status. No players meet FCP II or III status.

Richards will need a raise to $10.8M for his one, remaining season in FCP I status. Cap difference = $3M AAV and total

Louie Eriksson would need to either be designated the team’s FCP III, or the team would allow him to serve Years 1 – 3 of his current contract, seek a one-year exception for Year 4 and make him a UFA in Year 5 with two years lost off the life of the contract. If the FCP III, the difference is $289K AAV / $1.733M total. If not the FCP III, the Cap difference is $0 while playing and -$4.267M AAV / -$8.533M total in the last two seasons of his current contract

Steve Ott would need a one-year exception to his current contract in order to serve out the term. Cap difference = $0

Stephane Robidas will be 34 this season. He can therefore serve Year 1 and 2 of the current contract, seek a one-year exception in Year 3 and loses one year of his current contract to CBA language. Cap difference =$0 while playing and -$3.3M AAV and total in the last season of his current contract

Andrew Raycroft, Fabian Brunnstrom, Brandon Segal, and Jeff Woywitka, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Raycroft would also get $725K in year two of their current agreement. Cap difference is $287.5K AAV / $350K total of a span of two years.

The Stars sport eight players with proposed CBA issues. The total Cap dollar change is -$8.384M. And despite granting one-year exceptions for specific players, there are still two players with 3 years of lost contract status.


Based on what is shown above, The Avalanche have the least woes, due in large measure to having the vast majority of players with two year contracts at this time. Their five players’ contract adjustments with a total Cap change of -$2.964M in outgoing payroll ties them with ATL for our lowest number of team changes so far.

Next are the Stars with a eight adjustments and a team Cap dollar cut of -$8.384M. Of negative note, the Stars also have two players losing a total of three years in contract term.

The Blue Jackets’ same eight player adjustments hold an increased outlay of $3.237M in Cap dollars, something not beneficial to a small market team.

The Hurricanes have 11 players’ adjustments to make with no lost term for any players. Their Cap payroll outlay increases by $5.025M, however.

The Flames has some issues with 12 contracts to adjust, but lose a combined -$1.03M off the payroll due to this CBA’s rules.

But the Blackhawks beat every other team so far for the total number of players affected with 15, a cap payroll downturn of -$75.982M, and four players losing a total of 18 years of contract term (including Huet’s loan to the Swiss). These are due to ‘mortgaging to the hilt’ to get a Stanley Cup winning team, a process that worked last year. But it is equally likely the experience of Scotty Bowman in the front office was brought in to assist with the difficulties of working such a mangled process. Two thoughts come to mind here: the armchair quarterback sitting at home that says he can GM the ‘Hawks better than current management really doesn’t want to walk a mile in those shoes; and current management might very well welcome a new CBA in order to readjust everything back down to reasonable limits.

So with 1/3 of the NHL analyzed, we have shown an overall number of 88 players’ contract adjustments, with an overall decrease in payroll of -$100.635M due to large measure to 10 players with 27 years of lost contract term and some ELCs above the ELC Maximum with Bonuses. The averages are 8.8 players with -$10.634M in Cap dollars per team.

Note this blog has been adjusted to an Update 2 (U.2) due to player and monetary adjustments, a re-work of the CHI course of action and team charts for affected players’ salaries have been added.

The next five teams to analyze will be DET, EDM, FLA, LAK and MIN.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs

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