1. 4.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The New CBA Effect: DET Through MIN (U.1) – The Colonel

This blog has been updated with new financials and charts

Previously, I analyzed 10 teams’ current list of players’ contracts against the recommended model for the Next CBA. (See “The Next CBA: Part I”, “The Next CBA: Part II”, ANA through CGY, and CAR through DAL.)

Below is analysis of DET, EDM, FLA, LAK and MIN. This blog uses current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA on these teams. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Teams 11 – 15 In NHL Alphabetical Order

DET – Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg all meet FCP II status, and Brian Rafalski meets FCP III status in contract salary terms. No player meets FCP I status.

Henrik Zetterberg is problematic. At age 30 on opening night weekend this season, he has 10 contract years following. He gets most from his current term if he is designated an NFC, retains his current contract with a one-year exception through 2016-17, and then becomes a UFA. The team would, of course, make up the difference from current salary with bonus money. This gives Zetterberg an AAV of -$259K / $0 total dollar difference due to bonuses awarded while playing and a -$6.083M Cap AAV and -$26.142M total over the final four years of his current contract

Pavel Datsyuk is now age 32 with four years remaining on his contract. He cannot be an FCP based on the age restriction, but is eligible for a three-year contract with a one-year exception if sought and granted. His salary is an FCP II’s, which would have to be lowered from $6.7M AAV to no more than $5.788M AAV, the average of four years at the NFC maximum. The $3.65M he would be losing in contract money could be made up in bonuses of $912.5K per season which is under the 34% bonus ceiling. Cap change = -$912.5K AAV but $0 total while still under contract due to bonuses

Brian Rafalski turns 37 years old this season with one additional year on his contract thereafter. No player over age 35 can get more than a one year contract at a time. If the language is placed into the new CBA and DET secures the one-year exception, they can maintain Rafalski under his current term. They would have to lower his salary/AAV to the NFC maximum of no more than $5.75M in 2010-11 and $5.775M in 2011-12. But they could round that back up to his $6M per year with $250K and $225K in bonuses respectively with a lowering of his AAV but a wash to the Cap Hit. Cap change =$0

Nicklas Lidstrom should also be easy to handle. He will be 41 before the end of this season’s playoffs, and only has a one-year contract. The issue is that it is over the NFC maximum of $5.75M. Again, to honor the contract, they could simple pay the NFC max and award him a $450K bonus. His AAV drops, but the Cap change=$0

Johan Franzen is a combination of Zetterberg and Datsyuk. This season he will be 31 years old with the best combination of term and dollars for the club to seek approval to make him an NFC maximum with a one-year exception. This will give him a normal contract through 2015-16. After that period, he becomes a 36-year old UFA with four lost term years. While playing under contract, his AAV and total Cap change = $0. In the final four, lost term years, however, he loses -$3.955M AAV / -$15.818M total.

Todd Bertuzzi and Thomas Holmstrom would both need to receive a one-year exception to maintain their current contracts as he will be 36 and 38-years old respectively this season. Cap change =$0

Drew Miller and Derek Meetch require a pay raise to the LMC floor of $700K each this season. Cap change =$250K

A combination of player age and long term contracts designed to lower AAVs take some of the wind out of the Red Wings’ sails here. Nine players need contract attention for a total Cap change of -$41.66M. Two players also lose a total of eight years’ worth of term.

EDM – There are no players meeting FCP I, II or III status.

Shawn Horcoff turns 32 years old this season with an additional four seasons of term following. He cannot be an FCP, but can be awarded an NFC with one-year exception, losing the last season of his current term. Cap change = -$5.5M in 2014-15
Sheldon Souray turns 35 after the season concludes and retains one year on his contract. The club could seek a one-year exception to maintain his contract’s terms as an NFC. Cap change = $0

Nikolai Khabibulin turns 38 this season with two additional years on contract. The team could seek a one-year exception for him and release him to UFA status in his third year. Cap change is -$3.75M

Jean-Francois Jacques and Steve MacIntyre need their salaries increased to meet the LMC standard. Cap change = $285K

Taylor Hall’s current ELC, like Tyler Seguin’s, is for too much money over the term. Cap change = -$2.477M in 2010-11, -$2.452M in 2011-12 and -$2.427M in 2012-13 (or a total of -$7.356M)

The same goes for Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson who is less over the ELC ceiling than Hall. Cap change = -$252K in 2010-11, -$227K in 2011-12 and -$202K in 2012-13 (or a total of -$681K)

The number of Oilers’ issues are not overwhelming at seven players requiring contractual re-working. But due to age and high ELCs, they are looking at a Cap change of -$17.002M and two players with a total of two lost seasons of term.

FLA – There are no players meeting FCP I, II or III status.

If his term is important to them, the Panthers would need to designate David Booth as their FCP III, increase his salary one season to the FCP III Ceiling, and keep him signed for five years. Cap change = $350K.

Rostislav Olesz turns 25 at the season’s onset with three additional years of term following. The team needs to secure an NFC plus one-year exception for him and his current contract can be honored as is. Cap change = $0

Steven Reinprecht turns 35 before season’s end and retains an additional year on his current contract. With an NFC plus one-year exemption granted, he can finish the current agreement as signed. Cap change = $0

Byron Bitz, Jason Garrison and Nathan Paetsch all make under the LMC floor of $700K so would need a raise in 2010-11. Cap change = $212.5K

Michael Frolik, Dmitri Kulikov and Keaton Ellerby’s ELCs with maximum bonus is just over the authorized Cap hit. Cap changes = -$81K in 2010-11 and -$27K in 2011-12 for a total of -$108K

The Panthers have more personnel to adjust (at nine) than EDM, and with more outgoing dollars. Total Cap change is $1.905M, the second least amount behind ANA for any team to have to be prepared to pay out and a welcome respite for Dale Tallon coming over from the Blackhawks. They also have no lost contract term amongst their players.

LAK – Anze Kopitar and Ryan Smyth both meet FCP II status in terms of dollars. No other player meets FCP I or III status.

Kopitar is 23 this season with an additional five seasons on contract following. All the Kings need to do is increase his salary one season to the FCP II Ceiling. Cap change = $67K AAV / $400K total

Ryan Smyth turns 35 this season and has one additional year on contract. Due to age, he cannot be an FCP. The best option here is for the team to designate him an NFC, seek a one-year extension and make up the contractual difference in bonus money. Cap change = -$487.5K AAv but total dollar change of $0 due to bonuses

Dustin Brown turns 26 and Matt Greene turns 28 this season, and both retain an additional three seasons of term on contract. The team should designate them as NFCs and secure one-year exceptions so they can finish out their contracts as written. Cap change = $0

Davis Drewiske, Richard Clune and Peter Harrold do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change is $125K AAV / $592K total

Drew Doughty’s contract is above the new CBA’s ELC ceiling, so the maximum he could make is $1.273M with bonuses – the team will have to make up for it at his 2011-12 contract negotiation. Cap change = AAV and total of -$2.202M

The Kings are in decent shape with the average of eight players’ contracts requiring attention. The total Cap change = -$1.211M with no lost contract term for any player.

MIN – Beginning in 2011-12, Mikko Koivu meets FCP II standards and Niklas Backstrom meets FCP III status. There are no players meeting FCP I status.

Koivu’s brand new contract cannot pass the new CBA test without alteration. He will be 29 years old next season with an additional seven years to do on his new contract. As an FCP II, he can go through the 2015-16 season as is to age 32, the team request a one-year exemption for 2015-16, be paid one season at the FCP II ceiling, and he will lose two year of term as a UFA in 2017-18. Cap change =$90K AAV / $450K total increased salary over the term for playing and a total of -$13.05M to include the two years’ term lost to the new CBA.

Backstrom cannot be designated the FCP III despite his salary because he is currently 32 and turns 33 mid-season. He would have to receive an NFC through the three remaining seasons on his contract with an additional $250K in bonus money per year to make his current contract dollars a wash. Cap change = $0 AAV and total while under contract due to bonus money paid and -$6M AAV/total for year of lost term

Martin Havlat turns 30 before season’s end and has an additional four years of term remaining on his contract. He can be retained through 2012-13 as is, seek a one-year exception in 2013-14, and release him as a UFA in 2014-15. Cap change = $0 AAV and total while under term and -$5M in 2014-15 when one year is lost from contract

Matt Cullen turns 34 early in the season, and Marek Zidlicky at mid-season, both with two additional years of term remaining on contract. The team could retain both through 2011-12 as is, and seek a one-year exception in 2012-13 so they can finish out their contracts as written. Cap change = $0 AAV / total

Nick Schultz turns 28 before the season starts with three additional seasons of term. The team can retain him through 2012-13 as is, and seek a one-year exception to his NFC contract in 2013-14 so he can finish out his contract as written. Cap change = $0 AAV / total

Brad Staubitz, Clayton Stoner and Nate Prosser do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change is $350K AAV / $650K total

The Wild are just above the average with nine players’ contracts requiring attention. Under the assumption extra bonus money would be given to Backstrom in order to make up for lost dollars, the total Cap change is -$23.4M. The team also has three players losing a total of four years of term between them.


Based on these five teams’ adjustments above, the Oilers have the least issues with seven affected players due to shorter terms and younger age. Where they do have issue is with every ELC, which drops the Cap change by millions of dollars. Total monetary hit is -$17.002M, and Shawn Horcoff and Nikolai Khabibulin each lose a year of term.

Next is the Kings with eight adjustments and -$1.210M to the Cap Hit.

The LAK are followed by The Wild with nine players affected, and a Cap change of -$23.4M with three players losing a total of four seasons’ term.

The Panthers also have nine player adjustments to make, but their Cap change to date of $1.905M.

And finally, based on age, talent and term, you have DET, again with nine players requiring renegotiations. But due to several older players with high-priced contracts, they have the most money coming back in to the team due to lost term at -$41.66M. Zetterberg and Franzen, two of their star players, both lose four years of term due to age restrictions in the proposed, new CBA.

Through 1/2 of the NHL, the averages are: 8.67 players affected per team; for a team payroll average of -$12.371M; and with a bit better than one player losing 2.67 years of term. These numbers have all increased from teams 5 – 10 to teams 11 – 15.

The next five teams to analyze will be MTL, NSH, NJD, NYI and NYR.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs

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