#Hockeython Saturday! and Other Nuggets

Forgive me, hockey fans, for I have sinned: It's been...(counting on fingers and toes)...several weeks since my last post. I took a little vacation from blogging for the Olympics (slightly off-topic: Does the first "C" in CNBC stand for "Curling"? Should the Games have been called "THE 2010 INTERNATIONAL CURLING TOURNAMENT and other assorted events"?), and non-hockey-related issues have kept me away from the keyboard. At long last, I'm back, and I'm here to stay. Before I get to the primary topic of today's post, I have a couple of nuggets to share:

Remember my Game-Winning Save Theory? Well, the score is now 13-4 in favor of the Theory. For those too lazy to follow the link, what this means is that 17 times this season, I've seen one-goal games in the 3rd period in which the trailing team rang a shot off the post, and that team has lost the game 13 times. Thus, the Game-Winning Save Theory is accurate 76.5% of the time, which is somewhat less than my original prediction of 100%. I guess that's why they call them "theories", rather than "facts". Still, it's good enough to make for at least a minute or two of interesting conversation.

Tonight, Los Angeles is at Chicago, while Vancouver wraps up their "epic 14-game road trip" in Phoenix. Can anyone out there remember the last time either Kings-Blackhawks or Canucks-Coyotes, at this late stage of the season, was considered a compelling matchup? These are strange days, indeed...

And now, the main reason for this post:

I don't know about y'all, but since the Olympic break, I've struggled to get back into the swing of things, NHL-wise. Since foreign languages are best learned through immersion (i.e., surrounding yourself with people who only speak that language), I've come up with an NHL immersion strategy for myself: This Saturday, 13 MARCH, courtesy of the Scheduling Gods, NHL Center Ice, and an understanding-and-supportive-to-a-fault fiancee, I will be watching four games in their entirety, back-to-back-to-back-to-back. The schedule is as follows:

GAME 1: (1:00pm EST) Chicago@Philadelphia
GAME 2: (4:00pm EST) Florida@San Jose
GAME 3: (7:00pm EST) Buffalo@Detroit OR St.Louis@Columbus; Game-time decision
GAME 4: (10:00pm EST) Ottawa@Vancouver

Along the way, I'll be blogging and/or Tweeting (#Hockeython) from Row Couch, Seat 1. Follow along (@OGAs_BigTex) and, in addition to my commentary on the games themselves, you'll learn such factoids as:

What is the optimum time for an in-period bathroom break?
What beer goes best with Florida@San Jose?
While we know that man cannot live on bread alone, what about chips & queso?
...and more!

Feel free to join in this Saturday. Whether you're doing the full #Hockeython, a half-#Hockeython, or just one game, take some time to immerse yourself and re-connect with the 2009-10 NHL season. It's gonna be fun, kids!


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Big Tex's Teams at the Midpoint

WELL, well, well...another year, shot to hell. As 2009 comes to a (merciful) close, the Olympics-compressed NHL season has just about reached its' midpoint. Let us reflect (briefly) on what transpired in the 09- portion of the campaign, and pontificate (also briefly) on what the -10 segment of the schedule might contain. Ed. Note: Yes, Santa brought me a thesaurus this year. So what?

Los Angeles Kings: I knew they'd show improvement over last season, but I didn't expect this much improvement. The emergence of Jon Quick has been key. While I wouldn't call them a top Cup contender in the West, any team in the playoffs has a chance...and the Kings are IN, baby.

Colorado Avalanche: Biggest.Surprise.Of.The.Season. The Avs aren't really this good, right? Right?!?!? Will we still be waiting for their "inevitable" collapse in April? The Magic 8-Ball says, "Signs point to yes", and OGA (gulp) agrees.

Chicago Blackhawks: Not only are the Blackhawks Chasing Stanley, but they're also the most Cup-ready team in the NHL right now. Unfortunately for them, Stanley Cups aren't won in December...

Columbus Blue Jackets: ...And unfortunately for Columbus, Stanley Cups CAN be lost in December. While the Jackets are taking steps to right the ship, time is already running out. To put their current situation in game terms, they're down by two with about six minutes remaining in the 3rd. If they don't make the playoffs, Columbus gets my vote for Biggest.Disappointment.Of.The.Season.

Detroit Red Wings: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Ed. Note: Yes, I'm a Stars season-ticket holder. I'm thoroughly enjoying the Wings' season because I don't know when they'll have another like it.

Nashville Predators: I'd like to dedicate a song to the Predators and their fans, because they deserve it:

This team just won't quit. Mad Props to the Preds, whom I picked to finish dead last in the Central Division. Thanks for proving me wrong.

Boston Bruins: I don't know; they just ain't the same without that Kessel kid. And they (and I) really miss Lucic in the lineup. Marco Sturm is the B's top sniper, with just 13 goals. Will they make it out of the second round this season? Hell, will they make it out of the first?

Florida Panthers: Hmm...6-8-5 at home, 10-10-2 on the road. If they had more road games in the 2nd half of the season, they might just have a shot at the playoffs. Believe it or not, though, the future looks bright for the Panthers. Unfortunately for them, the future is not now.

Vancouver Canucks: At the end of January, the Canucks begin their six-week (with a break for the Olympics), fourteen-game tour of NHL arenas NOT located in British Columbia. Between now and then, however, they play nine of twelve games at home. Don't be surprised if they hit the road 1st in the Northwest Division, 3rd in the Conference...and don't be surprised if they make the most of their "bonding experience" on the road and return home 1st in the Northwest, 3rd in the Conference.

New York Rangers: Remember when Lucy yanks the football away just as Charlie Brown is about to kick it, and he goes flying through the air? Remember that long, drawn-out "aaaarrrrgggghhhh" sound Charlie Brown made? That's what I hear in my head when I think about (and often, when I watch) the Rangers. At least they're getting their money's worth out of Gaborik and Lundqvist. If either goes down, though, the Blueshirts can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

So that's the ten teams I cover for On Goal Analysis, in a nutshell. Tomorrow, we OGA boys will be watching the Winter Classic from our prime seats...on the couch in front of a 36" HDTV. As soon as the final buzzer sounds, we're hitting the road for St. Louis, where we'll be blogging, Tweeting, and using semaphore flags to describe the action at Saturday's Blues-Blackhawks game. Stay tuned for OGA Road Trip IV, kids - it's gonna be SWELL!

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Detroit Red Wings at 10

Dateline: Anaheim, CA, 29 October 08: Through the first ten games of the 2008/9 season, the Detroit Red Wings are at +3 against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), with a record of 7-1-2. As a result of their efforts, the Red Wings have become the third team to clinch a playoff berth and are Chasing Stanley. PLUS: The Wings are currently scoring at a torrid pace, averaging 3.70 goals/game (2nd in the NHL)...Just as you might think, the Power Play is en fuego, as well, showing opponents that crime doesn't pay 31.8% of the time (2nd)...Detroit is also putting more pucks on net than any other team, with an average of 39.3 shots/game...The Red Wings might be the best counter-punching team in the NHL, demonstrating the Alternate Scoring Response (ASR) 6 times in 5 games...Hossa's play through the first ten games has been nothing less than inspired - his 5G, 9A speaks volumes about his desire to hoist the Cup next June....MINUS: While the Wings seemed to score at will, they've allowed opponents to put far too many pucks in the net, as their 3.30 goals against/game average attests (24th in the NHL)...Detroit's 21st-ranked Penalty Kill hasn't helped, shutting down opposing power plays just 78.4% of the time...Part of the blame must fall on Osgood, who has been sub-par in the early part of the season, as his Goals Against Average of 3.21 (27th in the NHL) and Save Percentage of .884 (28th) indicate...In 07/08, the Wings allowed a league-best 23.5 shots/game, but this season, they're allowing 29.1 shots/game (13th)...While the Red Wings continue to win games, they're not dominating opponents - 5 of the Wings' 7 victories have been by one goal.

Through the next ten games, expect Detroit to play along or slightly below the PQC. The Red Wings face a tough travel schedule, beginning Games 11-20 with a trip to SJS and VAN. They return home to face NJD and PIT, then head to Florida for games against TBL and FLA. After a brief stop at The Joe for a tilt with EDM, the Wings again head west, for three games against EDM, CGY and VAN (again). OGA is still waiting for the "Stanley Cup hangover" to kick in, and the combination of travel to both coasts and the quality of opponents might just be the catalyst. Post-Lockout, the Wings have found themselves an average of +4.5 against the PQC at Game 20, but they will be hard-pressed to maintain that average in 08/09.

The DETROIT RED WINGS SPR by Big Tex

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT

www.ongoalanalysis.com

28 September 2008

Stanley Cup Champions. Again. For the 4th time in the last 11 seasons, the Cup made its way to Detroit. The Red Wings celebrated their victory by going out and…getting better. Will the 08-09 season end with another victory parade?
Over the past three seasons, no team has come out of the starting gate faster than Detroit. Through the first ten games, the Wings average +2.3 against the Playoff Qualifying Curve. Significantly, the Red Wings have been the first team called IN the playoffs by OGA in two of the past three seasons, clinching playoff berths before young trick-or-treaters donned their costumes.

Some statistics of note from last season:

• Detroit was the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff berth (per OGA), on 24 OCTOBER
  

• Finished 3rd in Goals For (252) and 1st in Goals Against (179)
  

• Ten players scored 10+ goals, and five scored 20+
  

• Eleven players had a plus/minus greater than +10, and seven were greater than +20

The Red Wings signed free agent winger Marian Hossa in the off-season, which sent a clear message to the rest of the league: We have the Cup, and we intend to keep it. As no team has repeated as Stanley Cup Champs since the Wings themselves did it back in 97 & 98, they have their work cut out for them. To retain the Cup, Detroit must deal with a short off-season, the inevitable “Stanley Cup Hangover” through the early part of the season, and tougher competition within the Central Division – the Wings’ only weakness last year (they went 17-12-3 against divisional opponents, and 39-7-4 against the rest of the NHL). While all the above will certainly take a toll, perhaps the Red Wings’ greatest challenge in 08-09 will be…

(cont)…Motivation. After playing 104 regular season and playoff games last season, Detroit – the players, the coaching staff and team management – has to be tired. Once you’ve won the Cup, how difficult is it to motivate yourself to go out and do what it takes to win another one? And, in an age of ever-increasing (salary cap-induced) parity, how do you rise above the hungry up-and-coming clubs?

The Red Wings’ first 10 games are played 9 – 29 OCTOBER. Our exhaustive research indicates that in that time frame, Detroit earns and average PQC rating of 7.3 and about 15 points in the NHL standings. Last year saw the Wings reach +2.5 above the PQC and clinch a playoff berth by 24 OCTOBER. Detroit continued to play well above the curve until game 50, then took their collective foot off the gas and coasted (played .5 below the PQC) from games 51-70. At game 71, the Red Wings shifted into playoff mode as easily as a Mustang slips into 5th gear, going 8-3-1 down the homestretch and carrying that momentum into the playoffs.

Some statistics of note for the first month of the season:

• Post-Lockout, the Red Wings have a combined record of 21-7-2 through the first ten games
  

• They have clinched a playoff berth on 24 OCTOBER in two of the last three seasons
  

• Detroit plays only one back-to-back set of games in their first ten, and the first game is at home. Over the last three seasons, the Wings are 26-26 in the second game.

OGA will be measuring the Red Wings against their average PQC rating of 7.3, as well as against other NHL teams, in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with Detroit’s Game 10 Report, due to season subscribers by 2PM CST on 30 OCTOBER, and available for order from ongoalanalysis.com by 2PM CST on 31 OCTOBER. (See a sample G10R here… )

Detroit has been the most prolific team in hockey over the past three seasons, culminating with a Stanley Cup win in 07-08. As OCTOBER nears, the rest of the NHL must come to grips with the fact that this years’ model is even better (on paper). At this time, the only question facing the Wings is whether or not they have the desire to take to the ice and claim the Cup again in 08-09…or so it would seem. Teams around the league have made improvements, as well, and they are both better rested and hungry. The challenge awaits. Will Detroit rise to the occasion? Stay tuned to The OGA Blogs for updates, and check out the Red Wings’ G10R for a comprehensive progress report. Before the rest of the NHL knows, before the Wings themselves know that they’re IN the playoffs, OGA knows…and you can, too.

Monday, tune in for the Florida Panthers SPR. Until then, Big Tex says, “Try the corny dogs.”

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