Going into the 2009-2010 NHL season, the Phoenix Coyotes were picked by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Western Conference. Off-ice issues - namely, the never-ending ownership/relocation saga - were considered insurmountable distractions for the team. The only thing the Coyotes had to look forward to was a high first-round draft pick in June of 2010...or so virtually everyone thought.
A funny thing happened on the way to the 2010 NHL Entry Draft: Phoenix defied all expectations, posting a 50-25-7 record, good for fourth in the Western Conference. Though they bowed out in the Conference Quarter-Finals, the fact that they made it into the Stanley Cup Playoffs at all was remarkable.
Are the Dallas Stars the 2010-2011 version of the Coyotes? Similarities do exist:
The Stars are currently for sale by Tom Hicks' lenders (Phoenix is currently for sale by Gary Bettman). They've missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons (Phoenix missed the playoffs six consecutive seasons prior to last spring). Preseason expectations for the Stars were very low (Ditto Phoenix last season).
Unlike the Coyotes, the Stars don't face the threat of relocation. These teams share one more commonality, however: Like last season's Coyotes, the Stars are going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As a wise man said back in September, the Stars needed to cut their Goals Against dramatically this season. Dallas' GAA for the 2009-2010 season was 2.98 (23rd in the NHL). Through Game 30 this season, the Stars' GAA is 2.67 (12th). Dallas is allowing virtually the same number of Shots on Goal this season (31.0) as last (31.2), so improved goaltending has been key. Kari Lehtonen has been solid, and backup Andrew Raycroft has been a pleasant surprise.
At the other end of the rink, the Stars are scoring only slightly less than last season (2.73 Goals/Game now vs. 2.80 G/Gm then), and the top line of Loui Eriksson-Brad Richards-James Neal (combined: 90GP, 37-53-90, +28)is one of the best trios in the NHL. Having a second legitimate scoring line is essential for success, and the Stars are extremely fortunate to have Brenden Morrow-Mike Ribiero-Jamie Benn (87GP, 21-37-58, -6) coming over the boards.
The Stars also benefit from good health (Lehtonen's current back problems notwithstanding), as ten skaters have played all thirty games, while five more have missed three or fewer contests. This could change in one shift on the ice, but for now, it's very good news for Dallas.
After a two-year drought, I'm looking forward to seeing Stanley Cup Playoff hockey in Dallas again. Come April, I guess I'll have to go to the bank (backyard) and make a withdrawal (dig up the mason jar marked, "Playoff Ticket Money"). I can't wait.
The 2010-2011 NHL season is upon us, boys and girls. It’s time to start thinking seriously about hitting the road – perhaps to follow your favorite team on a road trip, or maybe to see a compelling matchup in person…or, if you’re like the OGA Boys, you probably want to see at least one game in every NHL barn. We’re working on getting our “NHL arena passport” stamped, and you can, too!
Unless you’re independently wealthy and have plenty of free time on your hands, you’re not going to hit all 30 NHL arenas in one season. You can chip away at your goal, however, by checking out The NHL Weekend Roadie. In it, we offer our suggestions for a road trip for every weekend of the season. We’ve already covered weeks one (too late), two (hurry up!) and three (still a little time!). This week, we’re looking at Halloweekend, the fourth weekend of the NHL season.
The itinerary:
NHL Week Four (Thursday, 28 OCT – Sunday, 31 OCT)
Thursday, 28 OCT: Phoenix @ Detroit – This roadie begins on Thursday, as the NHL is dark on Halloween. The second meeting of the season between these two clubs should be a good one (they meet in Phoenix on 16 OCT for the Coyotes’ home opener). After losing to Detroit in the playoffs last spring, Phoenix would like nothing better than to beat the Red Wings in their own building. The rest of the free world would probably enjoy it, too.
Friday, 29 OCT: Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh – Hey, it wouldn’t be a true “roadie” if you didn’t drive anywhere, right? Get up early, hop in your rental and hit the road to Pittsburgh (285 miles, approx. 5 hours drive time). You’ll surely be hungry when you get there, so do not pass go, do not collect $200, go directly to Primanti Brothers for your meal-in-a-sandwich fix. If you’re not in a sammich mood, try Pierogies Plus for some old-school, Eastern European comfort food. After you’ve stuffed your face, head over to the brand-spankin’-new CONSOL Energy Center to watch the Penguins take on the cross-state rival Flyers. This will be their third meeting of the season (Philly spoiled the Pens’ debut in their new arena, defeating Pittsburgh, 3-2, on 7 OCT).
Saturday, 30 OCT: Nashville @ Detroit – After you awaken from your food coma, drive back to Motown (still 285 miles, still about 5 hours drive time) for another game between division rivals. Detroit’s aging stars strive for one more shot at the Cup, while the young Nashvillians look to topple the (Red) Wing Dynasty. If you’ve regained your appetite by the end of the game, follow the crowd to Lafayette Coney Island for a chili dog (or three).
Sunday, 31 OCT: No NHL games today. Go home!
HOTELS - As always, we recommend checking Hotwire.com for your accomodations. Currently, a three-star hotel room in Downtown Motown can be had for just $59 on Thursday night, while a comparable room in Dearborn (a short drive from the Joe) on Saturday night will set you back $74. (Note: While staying in Windsor, Ontario is a cleaner, safer alternative to Detroit, rooms there are slightly more expensive and you'll need a valid passport to cross the border.) Friday night in Pittsburgh, a three-star room near the airport is currently $49, while three stars downtown will cost you $86.
FOOD - If the choices mentioned above won't work for you, check out either Roadfood.com or this Diners, Drive-ins and Dives-related website. The OGA Boys have eaten at over half a dozen establishments featured on Triple D, and we've never been disappointed.
GETTING AROUND - Even if you fly into Detroit, you'll need to rent a car to get to Pittsburgh and back, so check Hotwire for deals. As long as you're paying for it, you might as well get your money's worth. If you want to avoid the hassle of arena parking, however, try Detroit's People Mover. At just $.50/ride, it's a very reasonable option, and it'll take you right to The Joe. While not as convenient as Detroit's People Mover, there's a T Station just two blocks from the CONSOL Energy Center.
The last NHL Weekend Roadie in the month of October will get you three games in three days - one in a brand-new arena, and two in an aging classic. You can catch some great hockey, eat fantastic food, and still be home in time to go trick-or-treating Sunday night.
OGA’s second installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie highlights a road trip for the second weekend of the 2010-2011 season. For Opening Weekend, we suggested a very doable four games in three days on the East Coast. Our theme for Week Two is (drum roll please)…California Dreamin’.
Here’s the itinerary:
NHL Week Two (Friday, 15 OCT – Monday, 18 OCT)
Friday, 15 OCT: Vancouver @ Los Angeles – Though this will only be the Kings’ fourth game of the season, it’ll be their second against the Canucks. Vancouver eliminated Los Angeles in six games in the Conference Quarter-finals last April, so expect a physical game on Figueroa.
Saturday, 16 OCT: Detroit @ Phoenix – After two games in Prague to start the season, the Coyotes return to the desert for their home opener against the Hated Red Wings. Last spring, these two clubs went the distance in the Conference Quarter-finals, with Detroit coming out on top. Obviously, there’s no love lost here. From El Lay, Phoenix is just 370 miles east on I-10 – less than six hours by car. Easy drive.
Sunday, 17 OCT: Phoenix @ Anaheim – If you spend Saturday night in Phoenix (we recommend it), don’t plan to sleep in on Sunday, as the Coyotes and Ducks drop puck at 5:00pm local time. This will be the first meeting of the season for these Pacific Division rivals. Catch this game and save a little money by flying home on Monday.
There it is: three games, in three arenas, in three days. ‘Nucks, Ducks, Kings, Wings and Desert Dogs. Playoff and division rivals. Sand. Sun. Surf. Wearing t-shirts and shorts to hockey games. Beats the hell out of Edmonton in February, says I.
HOTEL – Again, we suggest Hotwire.com (if only they’d pay us for saying that!). One valuable tip regarding Hotwire: ONLY book rooms at hotels rated three stars and up. Don’t even get me started about the two-star dive in Harrisburg, PA, with bedbugs and a haunted shower.
FLIGHTS – As always, allow yourself a healthy time cushion if you’re flying in on game day, to account for possible flight delays. We recommend an early morning flight for a Friday night game, as that gives you plenty of time to get your rental car, have a good lunch, check into your hotel, and maybe grab a pre-game nap. The nice thing about flying to the West Coast is the time you gain along the way. The bad thing about flying home from the West Coast is the time you lose.
FOOD – Never been to Los Angeles or Phoenix and want something good you can’t get anywhere else, but don’t know where to go? Two good places to find what you seek are Roadfood.com and Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (yet another free advertisement, dammit). In particular, I have to say Guy Fieri (host of Triple-D) has good taste. I’ve eaten at a half-dozen establishments he’s raved about on his show, and every single one has lived up to the hype. You just can’t go wrong with one of his recommendations.
TICKETS – Single-game tickets for the Canucks @ Kings tilt go on sale 9 SEP. Tickets for Coyotes @ Ducks go on sale 28 AUG. As for tickets for the Hated Red Wings @ Coyotes, well…the ‘Yotes ain’t tellin’. Early September is a good guess, though.
GETTING AROUND – You’ll need to rent a car to get to Phoenix and back, so you might as well make it your primary transportation for the weekend. Traffic in Los Angeles is some of the worst in the U.S., so budget your time accordingly. I-10 between LA and Phoenix should be smooth sailing.
So that’s your second NHL Weekend Roadie: a Pacific Division trifecta. What are you waiting for? Book it, Dano.
This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Phoenix Coyotes - the 23rd installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!
Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.
The Phoenix Coyotes as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)
Last Season VS the PQC: The Phoenix Coyotes ended last season with a PQC rating of 3.95 which was just above their four-year average. However, a couple of bursts of hot play on the ice during the course of the previous season was not enough to crack the bottom of the playoff pairings and OGA was able to correctly call the Coyotes at 'Tee Time' (OUT of the playoffs) at Game 56 on Feb 12th, 2009 based on a close evaluation of the team performance as measured against the PQC.
The ride last year was a harrowing one. For the first 50 games of the season, the Coyotes played very close to, albeit just under, the Curve. But by Game 60, they found themselves 3 points below and sunk to a -3.5 by Game 70. A bit of spoiler-fun for the 'Yotes then commenced as they toyed with other teams playoff positioning and won eight of their final thirteen games to cap off the season. The rally actually brought them into positive territory above the PQC for only the second time in the entire season. The Coyotes finished the regular season 13th in the Western Conference.
Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: The Coyotes post-lockout average score as measured against the PQC is at 3.875. It is well below the NHL average. However, the Coyotes average has inched upwards after the previous two seasons which is a positive trend. This season's Desert Dogs will hope to take it up even further.
The key to improving their overall performance is to find ways to win games in the winter. Each season, right around Christmas time, the Coyotes begin dropping games like the temperature drops after sundown during the desert winter - fast. And they drop games all the way through February each season. Out of eight demarcation points measured against their PQC performance, the Coyotes are at a downward trend seven times during this time-frame. The key to Phoenix lengthening their season is to find ways to win games between Game 40 and Game 60, where their season is typically lost.
SUMMER SPLASH
Wow. What a summer it's been for hockey in the desert. Or the potential vanishing of the same. If you have yet to hear/read about the current bankruptcy hearings in court for the Phoenix Coyotes, all you really need to know at this point is the Phoenix (Glendale) Coyotes are staying put. For now. For a brief history, there's this: New arena built far from fan-base and team does not win enough games to convince locals to drive to Glendale. Guy from Canada wants to buy the team and park it near Toronto. NHL doesn't want to move/close/admit defeat/whatever with the club in Phoenix and now, temporarily, owns the franchise. It's a nasty affair and is still unsettled, but an emergency meeting for the parties involved has been called for by the federal bankruptcy judge overseeing the case. For more on this recent development, see the Coyotes site here.
Everything typed above could change with the stroke of a pen from a judge. Everything typed above could change if this team comes out of the gates strong this season, wins and the fans remember where they put their car keys. The area is a tough market for a 'fourth' sport and this may be a case of sports-saturation. But considering this part of the southwestern US houses what are lovingly referred to as 'Snow Birds', you would think some of these Canadian and Michigan ex-pats would get their butts in the seats and enjoy some hockey. I'm just saying...
Bridging the gap between management maneuvers and player moves, is the coach. In short, Wayne Gretzky may or may not still be the coach of the Coyotes. With his ties in ownership of the team and part of the bankruptcy filing, Gretzky is low-profile these days (read:AWOL) and the Coyotes are working through camp and the pre-season without him. Assistant coach Ulf Samuelsson is acting as head coach while the true status of Gretzky is unknown. He is still listed as the coach but is not coaching and the local media and fans are thinking a fresh start (no Great Big Salary behind the bench) might be the right skate forward.
In ice-related summer moves, players who moved on and OUT are: Steven Reinprecht, Enver Lisin, Nigel Dawes, Todd Fedoruk, Steven Goertzen, David Hale, Dmitri Kalinin, Ryan Lannon, Brandon Prust, Brian McGrattan and Garth Murray. This entire group of 11 players accounted for a whopping 51 of the Coyotes goals last season and the organization believes the veteran leadership and skill obtained during last season's trade deadline and during the off-season will more than compensate.
New Names: Adrian Aucoin, Radim Vrbata, Jim Vandermeer, Lauri Korpikoski, Vernon Fiddler and Jason LaBarbera will join the other recent arrivals at the end of the 08-09 season, Matthew Lombardi, Scottie Upshall and Petr Prucha to compliment the rise of the Phoenix Phuture.
FROZEN PILL'S FANTASY DOSE
The Sure Thing: Shane Doan (LW). Doan led the Coyotes with 73 points (31/42) last season. Second in scoring for the team was Matthew Lombardi with 46 points - 30 of which were scored in Calgary before the trade deadline. That's almost a 30-point gap between the first and second leading scorers. And if your pool awards points for shots on goal, the Coyotes captain put 230 of of those on net last season. Step aside! Shane Doan as the Sure Thing is also the Thing of Obvious.
TrustyRusty: Matthew Lombardi (C). Actually, this slot could go to Shane Doan again as the true, tested and measured Coyote for point production. But on a team with few offensively-gifted veterans, Lombardi performed wonderfully after coming to Phoenix in the Olli Jokinen trade with Calgary at the trade deadline last season. He put up 16 points in 19 games with the Coyotes and will most likely see an increase in his ice time and a greater leadership role.
Up and Coming: Peter Mueller (RW/C?). Mueller, a first round pick in the 2006 entry draft, struggled last season and also dealt with a concussion-related injury, affecting his point totals. He posted only 36 points - a let down from expectations created by his 54-point effort the prior season, his rookie campaign in 07-08. Some reports have Mueller moving from the wing to center ice. If so, his point totals could go up easily as this very talented 21-year old begins play in his third NHL season. Don't be fooled by his sophomore numbers - he's talented and will play big minutes with big expectations.
Under the Radar: Phoenix Coyotes (all). Sorry...couldn't resist. Most fantasy GMs are going to grab Doan, if anybody, from the Coyotes. Minor point production from many of the youngsters being thrust into NHL action (some say too early) is going to be the norm for a couple of seasons. But Phoenix has a lot of guys coming back this season for their second or third stints - and we may see several of these hopefuls break out and surprise this season.
Names to get familiar with because they may not be on your fantasy team this season, but will be on your competitor's teams next year. Keith Yandle (D), Mikkel Boedker (RW), Zbynek Michalek (D), Viktor Tikhonov (RW), Martin Hanzal (C)
The Watchful Eye: Kyle Turris (C). Another youngster thrust into the spotlight, Turris' rookie campaign last season was an up and down affair picking up 20 points in 63 games. But the promise this player brings was seen a few times last season and is one to keep an eye on. As of September 21st, it appears Kyle will begin this season with the Coyotes affiliate, the San Antonio Rampage. But if he gets a call-up to the big house, he may make a great acquisition from your fantasy 'free agent' market.
The Watchful Eye Honorable Mention: Kevin Porter (C). He won the 2008 Hobey Baker Award and had 10 points (5/5) in a 34-game stint with the Coyotes last season. With Phoenix trying to slow down on the push to get their young talent on the NHL ice and focusing more on development,Porter may start the season in San Antonio. But he is going to make it a hard decision for management having posted 4 assists in the first two pre-season games.
The Crease: Ilya Bryzgalov. He is a 'bottom of the list choice' for a goalie on your fantasy team. Although he has played very well at times in the past, his performance in Phoenix last season, after being announced as 'the man' between the pipes for Phoenix, was dismal. But he has the skill for a bounce-back and if still available mid-season, could be a great replacement goalie for an injured starter or a good free agent acquisition if he turns his play around and retains the starting position after Phoenix brought in Jason LaBarbera during the summer for backup duties.
Mad Scientist: Petr Prucha (RW). After an amazing rookie year in 05-06 playing for the New York Rangers, Prucha fell out of favor with the 'Organ-i-zation'. In that rookie campaign, he posted 47 points in 68 games. By contrast, in 07-08 he scored only 17 points (7/10) in 62 games. Little trust was placed in Prucha and the Rangers were happy to deal him at the trade deadline last season. So why is he the 'Mad Scientist' pick? Because he has shown flashes of brilliance and now has the opportunity in Phoenix to restart his career anew. Besides, Big Tex thinks he is teh awesomeness. Scottie Upshall is also a good choice for the 'MS' pick coming off of a career year split between Philadelphia and Phoenix and nobody questions his bravado.
THE OGA DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)
Will the Phoenix Coyotes sophomores help propel their team into the playoffs this season for the first time since 2002?Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.
Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.
And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.
Tomorrow, the Frozen Pill rolls out another Season Preview Report - the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Hair of the dog, anyone?
That's a total of TEN draftees from non-traditional markets. According to nhl.com, that makes the 2009 Non-Traditional Market Draft Class roughly 43% larger than the 2009 Russian Draft Class. Yes, I'm well aware of the reasons (KHL) behind the NHL's reluctance (no transfer agreement) to draft Russians these days (KHL, cough, cough), but it is heartening to see the development of a new talent pool to help offset the rapidly dwindling Russian pipeline. The question all you makeitseven folks should ask yourselves is this: Without the Stars, Avalanche, Coyotes, Panthers and KingsDucksSharks (among others), would these kids have been drafted into the NHL, NFL or MLB?
I'll say it again, both because I believe it and because I like to repeat myself: Non-traditional market franchises, while an affront to Canadian and East Coast hockey purists, are helping grow the NHL talent pool. In the long-term, the growth of the talent pool will allow for expansion without a significant drop-off in quality of the on-ice product, and will gradually raise the level of play throughout the league. So, in regards to the so-called "Southern Strategy", I'm going to say something I've never directly stated before now, and may never say again: Gary Bettman was right.
Undoubtedly, hockey fans across Canada are in high spirits today: Not only did their Canucks defeat the Blackhawks, 3-1, to take a 2-1 series lead, but the Phoenix Coyotes filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Since the franchise relocated to Phoenix from Winnipeg in 1996, many Canadians have been rooting/hoping/wishing/praying for its' failure. I've been a fan of The Great Game long enough to understand and appreciate the Canadian view of hockey (which, in many respects, is quite similar to the Texan view of football - somewhere between sport and religion, and closer to the latter). With all due respect to the country that gave birth to hockey, Canadians who would dance on the Coyotes' grave, and who would like to see the other "non-traditional market" teams - Dallas, Nashville, Atlanta, Tampa and Florida in particular - fail are, themselves, failing to see and understand the big picture.
Here's a (not so) crazy idea, Canada: Instead of focusing your efforts and prayers on the demise of the NHL in the southern U.S., why not cheer for the success of those franchises? If the Nashvilles, Atlantas and Floridas of the league can remain viable, the door can be opened for expansion. What did I just say? You heard me: EXPANSION.
Provided the southern U.S. franchises can stabilize and remain viable, I see the door opening for expansion to a 32-team NHL. Where would those new franchises go? While Las Vegas and Kansas City are most commonly mentioned, I think the league would be foolish not to pursue the recently-floated idea of a second franchise in Toronto, and on a personal level, I'd love to see the Jets (as an expansion franchise) flying high over Winnipeg again.
Why not simply relocate, say, the Coyotes and Thrashers? Because abandoning those (or any other) markets would be a step backwards, a defeat, for the NHL and for hockey itself. The truth of the matter is that any non-traditional market team can be viable - successful, even - provided they are successful on the ice. Even the Coyotes, whose previous owner shot them in the foot by building the arena across town from their fan base, could get fans to make the drive by putting up Ws and making a little noise in the playoffs. As General Patton (George C. Scott) said at the beginning of his biopic:
"...Americans love a winner, and will not tolerate a loser."
Won't expansion dilute the talent pool, lowering the quality of play and dragging the NHL back down the path toward the "dead puck" era? No, it won't, and here's why: Thanks to the NHL's expansion into non-traditional (southern U.S.) markets, the talent pool is now expanding. Look, for example, at the US National Team Developmental Program's Under-18 team: The roster features a goalie from Florida and two skaters from Texas. The US NTDP U-17 roster is even more diversified, with four forwards from California and one each from Texas, Colorado, Las Vegas and...wait for it...Arizona. Kids who grew up playing hockey in Texas and Florida are now popping up in Canada's major junior leagues and in big-time NCAA Division I programs. Kids across the southern U.S. (like Tex Jr.) who would otherwise be playing football, basketball, baseball or soccer, are now choosing hockey...and it's all because of the NHL's expansion/relocation below the Mason-Dixon line.
So Canada, I'd like to invite you aboard the NHL Expansion Train. Remember, though: It's because of the non-traditional market teams that the talent pool is growing, which will only improve the quality of play, which will, in turn, bring in new fans (increasing TV viewership and league revenues accordingly), which will allow the NHL to expand to 32 teams...And a note to Gary Bettman: When the NHL does expand again, it's time to reward the country that gave birth to The Great Game, and Toronto and Winnipeg would seem to be most deserving.
(Image unashamedly stolen from Puck Daddy)
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