OGA SPR: The Toronto Maple Leafs - by Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Toronto Maple Leafs - the 28th installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The Toronto Maple Leafs as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: The Toronto Maple Leafs never truly threatened to make the playoffs last season. But that doesn't mean they didn't see marked improvement in certain areas of critical performance as measured against OGA's proprietary PQC. They ended their 2008-09 season with a lowly PQC rating of 4.0.

They did, however, almost mirror their performance the previous season (07-08) which is as important for the experience and post-season preparation as it is for team chemistry and confidence for this upcoming campaign (more on this later). But it is all still short of the immediate goal in Toronto...to return to the NHL playoffs for the first time since the 2003-04 season.

Last season, the Leafs quickly performed above the Curve mean-line and were in positive territory at Game 10. This was the first time the Leafs were found north of the PQC mean-line since the 06-07 season, but was also, unfortunately, the last time they were in positive territory for the remainder of the 08-09 season.

When measuring their performance along the Curve, OGA was able to correctly call the Toronto Maple Leafs at 'Tee Time' (OUT of the playoffs) at Game 40 on January 6, 2009. But some healthy trending was noticed along the way last season as compared to the other three seasons since the lockout. The Leafs, folks, are on the mend.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: Last season's PQC rating of 4.0 was actually their worst finish in any of the four seasons since the lockout and was below their average of 4.30. However, in this case, the numbers can be misleading when judging the team's overall performance.

In the 05-06 and 06-07 campaigns, Toronto was, to be polite, erratic as they placed performance markers all over the Curve throughout the entire two seasons. In the 05-06 season, they had a swing in the Curve of 6.5 points between games 40 and 50 where they dropped from +2 to a -4.5! Another erratic swing between games 70 and 82 had them climb from -0.5 to +3.5.

In the 06-07 season, the neurotic play continued and between games 20 and 30 they dropped from a +2.5 to a -3.5...another 6 point swing. The rest of that season, though, performance evened out and led to the repeating pattern of the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons.

In the last two campaigns, the Leafs have started out playing close to the Curve mean-line and then dip through games 20-50. But for this period, they dipped no lower than -2.0 against the PQC. And in each of the last two seasons, by game 50, the Leafs began to climb and finish out the season close to the mean-line with improved play heading towards the playoffs.

These trends bode well for the 09-10 Maple Leafs and a renewed sense of vigor and desperation has hold of the city and this team. So how has Toronto prepared for this campaign and what secret weapons may their young and prospect-grown talent bring to the battles of a new season?

SUMMER SPLASH

• Brian Burke. since taking over the helm, is openly building a team that will, in the end, resemble his winning team in Anaheim. Big, mean, old-school hitting and hard-checking hockey is where Toronto is headed. And it does seem more appropriate here than in Anaheim. But the obvious question is whether or not it can succeed in Toronto (i.e. are the right personnel in place now?) as well as it did for the Ducks.

• The stated goal this season is to make the playoffs. The Leafs believe they have a good chance of doing just that. Whether or not they get there with the team currently assembled or after some mid-season moves remains to be seen. Without a doubt, though, some high-impact moves were made this summer that certainly put the opportunity of achieving their stated goal that much closer.
  

• IN For the Swim: Key new arrivals include, Phil Kessel (C), Francois Beauchemin (D), Mike Komisarek (D), Colton Orr (W), Garnet Exelby, Wayne Primeau (C/LW), Jonas Gustavsson (G), and Joey MacDonald (G).

• The additions of big and gritty players like Beauchemin, Komisarek, Orr and Exelby certainly advance the notions of bigger and meaner. Some nice names to imagine skating the ice along the blue line with Luke Schenn. Prized goalie from yon other side of the pond, Gustavsson could very well be the franchise goalie for the future. Kessel immediately becomes an impact player but will be quickly measured against high expectations. His response to the responsibilities on the score sheet may dictate team performance as the season unfolds.
  

• Move Along, Nothing Left to See Here: Gone along are Pavel Kubina (D), backup Justin Pogge (G), and centers, Kris Newbury, Jeremy Williams. Wingers Tim Stapleton, Jeff Hamilton, and Brett Aubin are also elsewhere along with defensemen Jay Harrison, Erik Reitz and Jaime Sifers.

• In essence, the Leafs lost little when compared to what was gained. It did, however, cost two first-round draft picks and a second-rounder to bring Kessel on board. But Burke is banking on players performing to their utmost this season as Toronto will have 11 unrestricted free agents and 8 restricted free agents after the 09-10 season. The time to perform is now and the Frozen Pill believes the fans wouldn't mind, if in retrospect, they could choose between playoff hockey NOW versus slightly better picks in a potentially soft draft over the next two seasons with prospects ready to help in 3-5 years.

• In addition to adding size and the intent to be nasty to play against, the Leafs are bringing along some hot prospects who just may be ready to make the jump to the NHL and make an impact on their playoff chances this season. There's your picks, picker. See more below in the Frozen Pill's extended 'Watchful Eye'...
  

FROZEN PILL'S FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Phil Kessel (C). Kessel is not prized for his two-way play ('backcheck? me?') but is envied around the league for his quick release on the shot. And for fantasy purposes, you don't need a Selke winner here...you need that wrist shot. Toronto was able to acquire one of the last remaining free agents of note but is far from solving the scoring riddles in LeafLand. But Phil should help...especially if other GMs in your pool are ignoring the Leafs altogether this season. Big mistake.

TrustyRusty: Jason Blake (LW). Folks question certain aspects about Blake's game (i.e. love him/hate him), but without the extra fluff, here's what you need to know. Blake's lowest point-total since the 2002-2003 season was 47 (22/25) in 03-04 with the Islanders. Last season, he scored 63 points (25/38) in 78 games and put a whopping 302 shots ON NET! He's not going to be at the top of your draft pecking-order, but he cannot be overlooked for his consistency in point accumulation and regular play. He has only missed 18 regular season games since that 02-03 season so he's trusted to be in action most nights..and shooting the puck.

Up and Coming: Niklas Hagman (LW). Fans in Toronto were worried when the Leafs signed Hagman, a free agent of Dallas coming off of a career *contract* year, wondering if he was going to put up some real points while playing at the ACC. Well, he didn't disappoint. In 65 games last season, he was good for 42 points (22/20), with a 13.1% shooting percentage and has looked good so far this pre-season, as well with 2 goals and 2 assists at posting time.

Up and Coming Honorable Mention: Francois Beauchemin (D). Though not part of the youth movement in Toronto (he's 29 and an NHL starter since 05-06), he is new to this team and has a knack for some offense from the blue line. If you need a d-man for your team to pick up some assists, look here before defaulting to the normal Kaberle Road. Beauchemin is healthy and poised to have a big year in Toronto...and don't forget those handsome PIMs he just may snag fer ya, too.

Under the Radar: Mikhail Grabovski (C). He's feisty, underrated, pesky and accurate. Last season, he scored 48 points (20/28) and racked up 92 PIMs. He shot the puck on net 120 times and scored 16.7% of the time. He's only 5'11" but plays much bigger and is poised to become the number one center in Toronto this season. If you need some emergency PIMs, definitely have him your lineup any time he plays against former team, Montreal. He's a playmaker and his nickname should be Dangle. Grab you some Grabovski first if you grab anyone from Toronto.

The Watchful Eye: Nazem Kadri (C). He's only 18 and was just drafted this summer (1st round, 7th overall in the NHL entry draft) but is already turning heads in pre-season and creating highlight-reel action. He may just make the team out of camp, but if not, could be a useful call-up during the course of the season. While still young, he has been holding his own during the pre-season. Last season, with the London Knights of the OHL, he scored 78 points in 56 games. Then, in the playoffs, was good for 21 points (9/12) in 14 games. Whether his inexperience at the pro game lends to some intimidation remains to be seen and if he does make the lineup opening night, it will be key to see how the bigger team protects him and how the youngster responds to the physicality that is NHL hockey. Then there's this:



Expanded Fantasy Sleepers

Because Toronto is building from within, there are several young, good players who may crack the lineup this season. They may be mysteries to your competitors but you must train your eye on these hopefuls and get a jump on your competition in the free agent market...especially, say around mid-season when the injuries to your starters just seem to keep piling up...

The Watchful Eye Also Gazes Upon:

1. Christian Hanson (C). Hanson is going to be a a big power forward (6'3", 202 lbs) for years to come in the Leafs organization. He's got good hands, impeachable character (won the USHL's Curt Hammer award for best exhibiting the goals of the league and team) and is a hard skater. He looked promising in 5 games with the Leafs last season scoring a goal and an assist.
2. Viktor Stalberg (LW). Also big and fast (6'3", 210 lbs) with a goal-scorer's touch. Stalberg is tearing up the pre-season for Toronto with 5 goals and 2 assists...so far. Will he put these kinds of numbers when the games actually count and the opposing lineups are at full force? It's tough for any rookie to breakout, but it happens each season, year after year. And the Leafs may actually have a couple of them...
3. Tyler Bozak (C). He was much sought after as a collegiate player by NHL teams and many forecasts had him being the kid in Toronto to crack the starting lineup at the end of camp. He has played well but has not put up the kind of pre-season points seen from Stalberg and Kadri.
4. Jiri Tlusty (LW). He was yanked back and forth a bit between the Marlies and the Big Barn in the last two seasons but appeared in 14 NHL games in 07-08 (4 assists) and tellingly managed to finish even in plus/minus on the Toronto Maple Leafs. He is highly skilled (1st round/13th overall in 2006) and should be considered a breakout candidate waiting to happen.
   

The Crease: All focus is on The Monster, Jonas Gustavsson. He's to be the goalie of Toronto's future. Whether or not the future is now, is uncertain. Jonas recently had minor heart surgery but is already back in action. Vesa Toskala is the number one netminder and the job is Toskala's to lose. But he's in the final year of his contract and he knows the 6'3" monster is chomping at his skates. What to do for your fantasy team? Look elsewhere for goaltending. It's just too unsettled in Toronto to feel comfortable in the crease. Either Vesa is going to stand on his head and perform the magic the Leafs need or Jonas will take the job away and endure his trial by fire in the NHL. Either way, you are going to be lucky if you take either goalie and one gets enough time to make it worth their spot in your locker room..at least for the start of the season. (The Frozen Pill discloses he has gambled on signing the Monster in one fantasy league and remains hopeful, albeit admittedly too 'mad scientist'...)

Mad Scientist: Alexei Ponikarovsky (LW). He had a career year last season 61 points (23/38) and played all 82 games. His previous high was 45 points in the 06-07 campaign. But now, he can actually be considered a Toronto 'veteran' and should see plenty of time on the power play. Burke believes he is ready for a breakout season and should benefit from the increased ice time in Nik Antropov's (moved last season at trade deadline) absence. In 19 games after the trade deadline last season 'Poni' was good for more than a point a game (22 - 6/16). Whether or not he can match or beat last season's point totals is a bit of a gamble, and he has been less than impressive in pre-season. But you never know...and if you take the risk and it pays off, well, that's why they call you a Mad Scientist. For the record, the Pill believes Ponikarovsky, like many other Leafs, are going to have a surprisingly good season.


THE OGA DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Toronto Maple Leafs shake the doldrums and bud again in Spring to find they have qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since the 2003-2004 season? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

And with this, the Frozen Pill concludes his 10th team preview for the 2009-2010 NHL regular season. Tomorrow, Big Tex gets back into the action and brings you his thoughts on the Vancouver Canucks. It's almost hockey time.

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

OGA SPR: The Phoenix Coyotes - by Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Phoenix Coyotes - the 23rd installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The Phoenix Coyotes as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: The Phoenix Coyotes ended last season with a PQC rating of 3.95 which was just above their four-year average. However, a couple of bursts of hot play on the ice during the course of the previous season was not enough to crack the bottom of the playoff pairings and OGA was able to correctly call the Coyotes at 'Tee Time' (OUT of the playoffs) at Game 56 on Feb 12th, 2009 based on a close evaluation of the team performance as measured against the PQC.

The ride last year was a harrowing one. For the first 50 games of the season, the Coyotes played very close to, albeit just under, the Curve. But by Game 60, they found themselves 3 points below and sunk to a -3.5 by Game 70. A bit of spoiler-fun for the 'Yotes then commenced as they toyed with other teams playoff positioning and won eight of their final thirteen games to cap off the season. The rally actually brought them into positive territory above the PQC for only the second time in the entire season. The Coyotes finished the regular season 13th in the Western Conference.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: The Coyotes post-lockout average score as measured against the PQC is at 3.875. It is well below the NHL average. However, the Coyotes average has inched upwards after the previous two seasons which is a positive trend. This season's Desert Dogs will hope to take it up even further.

The key to improving their overall performance is to find ways to win games in the winter. Each season, right around Christmas time, the Coyotes begin dropping games like the temperature drops after sundown during the desert winter - fast. And they drop games all the way through February each season. Out of eight demarcation points measured against their PQC performance, the Coyotes are at a downward trend seven times during this time-frame. The key to Phoenix lengthening their season is to find ways to win games between Game 40 and Game 60, where their season is typically lost.


SUMMER SPLASH

• Wow. What a summer it's been for hockey in the desert. Or the potential vanishing of the same. If you have yet to hear/read about the current bankruptcy hearings in court for the Phoenix Coyotes, all you really need to know at this point is the Phoenix (Glendale) Coyotes are staying put. For now. For a brief history, there's this: New arena built far from fan-base and team does not win enough games to convince locals to drive to Glendale. Guy from Canada wants to buy the team and park it near Toronto. NHL doesn't want to move/close/admit defeat/whatever with the club in Phoenix and now, temporarily, owns the franchise. It's a nasty affair and is still unsettled, but an emergency meeting for the parties involved has been called for by the federal bankruptcy judge overseeing the case. For more on this recent development, see the Coyotes site here.
• Everything typed above could change with the stroke of a pen from a judge. Everything typed above could change if this team comes out of the gates strong this season, wins and the fans remember where they put their car keys. The area is a tough market for a 'fourth' sport and this may be a case of sports-saturation. But considering this part of the southwestern US houses what are lovingly referred to as 'Snow Birds', you would think some of these Canadian and Michigan ex-pats would get their butts in the seats and enjoy some hockey. I'm just saying...
• Bridging the gap between management maneuvers and player moves, is the coach. In short, Wayne Gretzky may or may not still be the coach of the Coyotes. With his ties in ownership of the team and part of the bankruptcy filing, Gretzky is low-profile these days (read:AWOL) and the Coyotes are working through camp and the pre-season without him. Assistant coach Ulf Samuelsson is acting as head coach while the true status of Gretzky is unknown. He is still listed as the coach but is not coaching and the local media and fans are thinking a fresh start (no Great Big Salary behind the bench) might be the right skate forward.
  
• In ice-related summer moves, players who moved on and OUT are: Steven Reinprecht, Enver Lisin, Nigel Dawes, Todd Fedoruk, Steven Goertzen, David Hale, Dmitri Kalinin, Ryan Lannon, Brandon Prust, Brian McGrattan and Garth Murray. This entire group of 11 players accounted for a whopping 51 of the Coyotes goals last season and the organization believes the veteran leadership and skill obtained during last season's trade deadline and during the off-season will more than compensate.
• New Names: Adrian Aucoin, Radim Vrbata, Jim Vandermeer, Lauri Korpikoski, Vernon Fiddler and Jason LaBarbera will join the other recent arrivals at the end of the 08-09 season, Matthew Lombardi, Scottie Upshall and Petr Prucha to compliment the rise of the Phoenix Phuture.
  

FROZEN PILL'S FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Shane Doan (LW). Doan led the Coyotes with 73 points (31/42) last season. Second in scoring for the team was Matthew Lombardi with 46 points - 30 of which were scored in Calgary before the trade deadline. That's almost a 30-point gap between the first and second leading scorers. And if your pool awards points for shots on goal, the Coyotes captain put 230 of of those on net last season. Step aside! Shane Doan as the Sure Thing is also the Thing of Obvious.

TrustyRusty: Matthew Lombardi (C). Actually, this slot could go to Shane Doan again as the true, tested and measured Coyote for point production. But on a team with few offensively-gifted veterans, Lombardi performed wonderfully after coming to Phoenix in the Olli Jokinen trade with Calgary at the trade deadline last season. He put up 16 points in 19 games with the
Coyotes and will most likely see an increase in his ice time and a greater leadership role.

Up and Coming: Peter Mueller (RW/C?). Mueller, a first round pick in the 2006 entry draft, struggled last season and also dealt with a concussion-related injury, affecting his point totals. He posted only 36 points - a let down from expectations created by his 54-point effort the prior season, his rookie campaign in 07-08. Some reports have Mueller moving from the wing to center ice. If so, his point totals could go up easily as this very talented 21-year old begins play in his third NHL season. Don't be fooled by his sophomore numbers - he's talented and will play big minutes with big expectations.

Under the Radar: Phoenix Coyotes (all). Sorry...couldn't resist. Most fantasy GMs are going to grab Doan, if anybody, from the Coyotes. Minor point production from many of the youngsters being thrust into NHL action (some say too early) is going to be the norm for a couple of seasons. But Phoenix has a lot of guys coming back this season for their second or third stints - and we may see several of these hopefuls break out and surprise this season.

Names to get familiar with because they may not be on your fantasy team this season, but will be on your competitor's teams next year. Keith Yandle (D), Mikkel Boedker (RW), Zbynek Michalek (D), Viktor Tikhonov (RW), Martin Hanzal (C)

The Watchful Eye: Kyle Turris (C). Another youngster thrust into the spotlight, Turris' rookie campaign last season was an up and down affair picking up 20 points in 63 games. But the promise this player brings was seen a few times last season and is one to keep an eye on. As of September 21st, it appears Kyle will begin this season with the Coyotes affiliate, the San Antonio Rampage. But if he gets a call-up to the big house, he may make a great acquisition from your fantasy 'free agent' market.

The Watchful Eye Honorable Mention: Kevin Porter (C). He won the 2008 Hobey Baker Award and had 10 points (5/5) in a 34-game stint with the Coyotes last season. With Phoenix trying to slow down on the push to get their young talent on the NHL ice and focusing more on development,Porter may start the season in San Antonio. But he is going to make it a hard decision for management having posted 4 assists in the first two pre-season games.

The Crease: Ilya Bryzgalov. He is a 'bottom of the list choice' for a goalie on your fantasy team. Although he has played very well at times in the past, his performance in Phoenix last season, after being announced as 'the man' between the pipes for Phoenix, was dismal. But he has the skill for a bounce-back and if still available mid-season, could be a great replacement goalie for an injured starter or a good free agent acquisition if he turns his play around and retains the starting position after Phoenix brought in Jason LaBarbera during the summer for backup duties.

Mad Scientist: Petr Prucha (RW). After an amazing rookie year in 05-06 playing for the New York Rangers, Prucha fell out of favor with the 'Organ-i-zation'. In that rookie campaign, he posted 47 points in 68 games. By contrast, in 07-08 he scored only 17 points (7/10) in 62 games. Little trust was placed in Prucha and the Rangers were happy to deal him at the trade deadline last season. So why is he the 'Mad Scientist' pick? Because he has shown flashes of brilliance and now has the opportunity in Phoenix to restart his career anew. Besides, Big Tex thinks he is teh awesomeness. Scottie Upshall is also a good choice for the 'MS' pick coming off of a career year split between Philadelphia and Phoenix and nobody questions his bravado.


THE OGA DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Phoenix Coyotes sophomores help propel their team into the playoffs this season for the first time since 2002? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

Tomorrow, the Frozen Pill rolls out another Season Preview Report - the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Hair of the dog, anyone?

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

OGA SPR: The Philadelphia Flyers - by Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Philadelphia Flyers - the 22nd installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The Philadelphia Flyers as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: A strong start to last season had the Flyers playing a full 2 points above the Curve by Game 30. It proved to be a strong enough start as OGA was able to correctly call them 'Chasing Stanley' (IN the playoffs) at Game 29 on December 13th, 2008 based on a close evaluation of the team performance as measured against the PQC. They achieved an above-average 4.95 PQC rating and never sunk more than a point below the Curve throughout the season. In fact, for five of the eight of the furlongs they were either at or above the PQC in their performance.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: Philadelphia's post-lockout average PQC score is now at 4.388 - the average being brought down dramatically by the abysmal 2006-07 campaign wherein they only rated at 2.8. That nasty finish garnered some good draft positioning, though (and one of the Frozen Pill's favorite prospects - James van Riemsdyk) and the 2009-10 Philadelphia Flyers are coming into this year's campaign to reap the rewards of good draft positioning over the past decade.

An interesting note of how the Flyers measure up against the curve is found in mid-season. OGA measures team performance against the PQC every 10 games. The span is referred to as a furlong and each 10th game is a demarcation point. Although the Flyers have advanced to the playoffs each of the previous two seasons, when viewing the PQC over the previous four seasons, the Flyers struggle each season midway through. From the 4th furlong to the 6th (the Game 40 and Game 60 demarcation marks), the Flyers play BELOW the PQC 75% of the time, going as low as 4 full points below the Curve.

The 2009-10 Philadelphia Flyers must be conscience of this and make whatever adjustments are needed to change this negative trait during this 3-furlong stretch. So in what ways did the Flyers begin prepping the changes this off-season to ensure this year's team rushes the velvet rope guarding the door to the Big Dance?


SUMMER SPLASH

• Salary cap issues in Philadelphia put management in the mode of tackling the business end of an appropriate budget while under the belief this team is built to win NOW. A pivotal player from last season, Mike Knuble, went to Washington as a result of operating procedures.
• The biggest news from the summer was the deal Philly made to acquire Chris Pronger from the Ducks. The cost was hefty, though as the Flyers dealt Joffrey Lupul and future defenseman, Luca Sbisa. They also had to give up their first round pick for the 2009 draft but feel Pronger may be the missing piece on the blue line to help take the team progress deeper into the playoffs (and past PA-rival Pittsburgh). But perhaps the Flyers felt plenty-stocked on current, producing first round picks to make the move. See below in the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose for examples on why Philadelphia believes the current team is the one to win with.
• Another key addition over the summer was the signing of Colorado's Ian Laperriere. The Bully-quotient just went up on Broad St. How this will affect one major area of on-ice concern from last season (the undisciplined play and time spent in the penalty box) remains to be seen. One would think, adversely. And so far, in the pre-season, the nasties have it.
• Goalie Swap! OUT are Marty Biron (NYI) and Antero Niittymaki (TBL). IN are (he's back...), Ray Emery (NHL_exile) and Brian Boucher (SJS). The choices here are the results of a money-conscience team willing to take some chances...hoping the awesomeness assembled in front of the crease infects the play in the blue paint, too. More on this next in the Fantasy Dose, below.

FROZEN PILL'S FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Mike Richards (C). He's the captain, he represents their future and he's only played four seasons in the NHL. In the last two, he's posted 75 and 80 points and scored 58 goals. For 7 of those goals last season, he scored them short-handed, leading the NHL. He scores on the power play (8 goals last year), on the penalty kill and at even strength. He led the team in assists (50), plays in every situation and led all Flyers' forwards in ice time last season averaging 21:44. The question is not 'why' to choose Richard but 'why haven't you?'.

TrustyRusty: Danny Briere (C). Ah yes, Daniel. He's trusty in the sense that he has a proven record of putting up massive points and scoring crucial and timely goals. He's rusty in that he is returning from an injury-plagued 08/09 season. However, all reports indicate he is back both health-wise and playing-wise. In the 3 pre-season games played so far, Briere has 2 of Philly's 5 goals...and both were unassisted. Briere is back, folks and his low-ranking on many fantasy rankings reports means you may be able to sneak him into your lineup. Crazy, huh? Talking about Danny Briere on your fantasy team as a 'sneaker' pick?

TrustyRusty Honorable Mention: Chris Pronger (D). New to the Flyers this season, Pronger is going to get your fantasy team points on the blue line. He will play tons of power play time and be counted on anchoring the Flyers' defensive play, eating up ice time like a summer-time sno-cone. He'll get some goals, plenty of assists and, playing in a Broad Street Bullies sweater, he will Prongerize your PIMs.

ARRIVED (fka Up and Coming): Jeff Carter (C). Although he lead the team last season with 84 points (46/38), he is just one of the Flyers' 'up and comers' because he, like Mike Richards, defines what the future of this team looks like. B0th Carter and Richards centered this team to offensive prowess via physicality. They both racked up PIMs in the 60s, led the team in scoring and plus/minus (+23 and +22, respectively) and were both drafted in the 1st round of the 2003 NHL entry draft. Like Richards, Carter is easy pickins, as it were.

Under the Radar: Claude Giroux (RW). Here's the deal. And we can make this one quick. Either your competing GMs are already familiar with Giroux and made sure to have him on their team early in the draft or, if not, he should be high on your draft-order list. Another first round pick (2006-22nd overall), Giroux scored 27 points (9/18) and finished +10 in 42 games for his rookie campaign. For his first taste of NHL playoffs, he contributed 5 points (2/3) in six games. Giroux is good. Grab him if you can, with or without the stick.



The Watchful Eye: James van Riemsdyk (LW). Another first round pick (2007, 2nd overall), van Riemsdyk entered the 09-10 camp and pre-season as a 'hopeful' to crack the starting roster. He then scored the first goal of Philly's pre-season in a 3-1 loss to Detroit and assisted on a Richards' power play goal against Toronto. Reporting shows the kid (20 years old) has been impressing a lot of folks at the camp - both teammates and media. Keep an eye on van Riemsdyk as he may not only make the starting roster right out of camp, but perhaps garnish some time on the Philly power play.

The Crease: Ray Emery. The reformed hot-head returns from a stint in the KHL to become the new starting goalie in Philadelphia. His troublesome history in Ottawa is behind him and a new chapter is open for the writing this season. But is he a starter for your fantasy team? I think many fantasy GMs will remain leery about selecting Emery. Odds are it will go one way or the other: Emery will either a) start strong, stay with team and again be a goalie we talk about for performance reasons or b) show he hasn't reformed himself enough to keep the media and fans' focus on team performance and become a distraction and, thus, a fun goalie to watch at the now-Adirondack Phantoms games. But Emery took responsibility for what happened in Ottawa and the need for a true, elite goalie in Philly gives Ray every opportunity to start the season fresh...and gives you a risky, albeit potentially rewarding, choice for a starter on your fantasy team.

OF NOTE: If the Emery-Experiment does not work out, Philadelphia signed former backup netminder and Phantom Phamiliar, Brian Boucher during the off-season. He split his time in the last two seasons between the Philadelphia Phantoms and the San Jose Sharks and did a great job backing up Evgeni of the Nabakov with 2 shutouts in his first two games. This is the same Boucher who achieved notoriety during his time in Phoenix where he set the modern NHL record of 5 consecutive shutouts. So be watchful of this occasional shutout artist who started his career in Philadelphia as yet another first-round pick (1995).

Mad Scientist: Daniel Carcillo (LW). Since Carcillo is no longer playing with the Coyotes and battling Pacific Division rivals, the Dallas Stars 20 times a season, Carcillo may not score as many goals in Philly as in previous years. But you cannot ignore last season's league-leading 254 PIMs if your fantasy league rewards you with points for minutes spent feeling shame. His closest competitor in the NHL here was Shane O'Brien with 196. Beware the -15 finish last season for Carcillo, though. Perhaps such a stat will be offset with increased scoring when comfortable with his new environs and the system in Philadelphia as Carcillo was acquired at the trade deadline last season and only laced up for 20 regular season games with the Flyers.


THE OGA DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Philadelphia Flyers be in contention for the playoffs again this season? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

For the next few days, you get your regular dose of the Frozen Pill. Tomorrow brings the Phoenix Coyotes. Sunrise or sunset in the desert?

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

OGA SPR: The Montreal Canadiens - by Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Montreal Canadiens - the 16th installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The MONTREAL CANADIENS as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) click the link to better understand OGA's proprietary Curve

Last Season VS the PQC: On Goal Analysis correctly called the Montreal Canadiens 'Chasing Stanley' (IN the playoffs) at Game 10 on November 1st, 2008! What we didn't say was 'swept in first round.' No, the Boston Bruins were the ones who made what should have been 'a series for the ages' nothing more than a bitter pill to the end of a glorious centennial season that came undone shortly after Montreal hosted the All Star game.

While the Habs were at +3.5 against the Curve by the end of their tenth game, they would then nosedive to playing 0.5 points below the PQC until Game 30. A huge swing up by Game 30 (+2.5) and then another huge swing down by Game 60 (-2.5) meant the team OGA called IN by Game 10 had to squeak into the post-season to keep us right.

But that's what our Playoff Qualifying Curve is all about - evaluation over the 10-game furlongs. And we're right almost 90% of the time.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: Again, Montreal put the OGA PQC to the test last season. They ended their regular season at half of a point below the Curve and finished at 4.65. The team average (since the lockout) now sits at 4.74.

What is most interesting is the consistency by which this team opens strong every season. Since the lockout, the Canadiens have played above the Curve every season until about the Game 40 mark. Halfway through and the consistency is through.

For the second half of the seasons, Montreal has been all over the map with point swings both well above and well below the PQC.

When mining the depths of Montreal for fantasy hockey players, consider this as you may have the upper edge on your competitors if you take some players here early on and offer as trade-bait midway through the season when their performance may falter. More on the fantasy side later...

But Habs' fans hope to see this season break the trends due to some big changes in the birthplace of NHL hockey during the summer.

SUMMER SPLASH

• Big moves over the summer in Montreal as Bob Gainey went against some of the conventional wisdom and provided the club with the shakeup it needed...and may have found the future is now in Montreal.
• Some big names are gone from the roster, too as the Canadiens enter camp. Favorite Captain Koivu (of the Sako variety) was not re-signed and Alex Kovalev was also welcome to explore other pastures. Two big names in Montreal that are now playing elsewhere left some fans wondering about the overall strategy. They then saw defenseman Mike Komisarek go to Toronto and Chris Higgins traded to the Rangers. Bruiser Tom Kostopoulos left for the Hurricanes.
• To remake the team, defense was bolstered as a priority by adding size and puck-moving, proven players in: Hal Gill (PIT), Jaroslav Spacek (BUF) and Paul Mara (NYR)
• Offense was given a kick in the pants with speedy additions of: Scott Gomez (NYR), Mike Cammalleri (CGY) and Brian Gionta (NJD) and the gritty Travis Moen (SJS)

THE FANTASY DOSE

The Montreal Canadiens made a big splash early in the off-season with a roster overhaul after having not met last season's centennial expectations. GM Bob Gainey acquired a complete top line of new skaters. Judging fantasy performance for this newly assembled squad means looking to the past...as well as waiting for the future.

The Sure Thing: Andrei Markov (D). Was second on the team in scoring last season as a defenseman with 64 points (12/52) with 7 of his goals coming on the PP. Every fantasy team needs D-men and those absorbing PP time like Markov are always necessary for a strong team. Markov will also be sharing the ice with newly acquired puck-mover, Jaroslav Spacek on the power play. Pick Markov for your D early on if you can.

TrustyRusty: Scott Gomez (C). One of the new 'marquis' names added during the off-season, Gomez is coming off of a rusty season in New York. But he's been a trustworthy fantasy player for so long, he gets to keep the title here. And having signed a 7-year deal in a city that is, er, passionate for success in hockeydom, you better believe Scott knows what's at stake and is ready to regain form centering the top line. Look for a much bigger points total this season as compared to last.

Up and Coming: Guillaume Latendresse (RW). In 56 games last season, he posted 26 points (14/12). While the jury may still be out on whether or not he's upwardly mobile on this team, the expectations are big and Guillaume is a confident player, anxious to contribute. He can play on either wing and will most likely do so on the second line, ensuring PP time and plenty of ice.

Under the Radar: Max Pacioretty (LW). He's big (6'2", 200lbs) and tough and has sure hands. He's poised to enter the season as a third-liner but may crack the top 6 and might just be as close to a 'sleeper' as Montreal has in the lineup.

The Watchful Eye: Ben Maxwell (C). Ben might just make the team out of camp. If not, look for a call-up, potentially even early in the season, should the ice be thin at center in Montreal. He has a lot of offensive promise and the reinvented Habs will be experimenting with chemistry in their lines. The situation is ripe for a break-through.

The Crease: Carey Price. With Jaroslav Halak nipping at his skates, the former first-round pick has had a bit of bumpy road in Montreal. No pressure there. But Price seems to be handling it all much better as he matures and is ready to backstop this team into the playoffs. Is he a goalie high on the list of draft choices? Perhaps if you are a Habs fan. Others are a little leery after having gotten less-than-expected production from Price. He's a middle of the pack pick, but not part of the bottom 15.

Mad Scientist: Brian Gionta (RW). While Michael Cammalleri, also acquired during the summer, might seem an obvious choice for the fantasy roster, he can be streaky and there is always an adjustment period to a new team. But having Gionta playing wing-man to Gomez reunites a lethal combo from the NJ Devils' organization a few seasons ago. With the instant chemistry possibilities here, the Mad Scientist scouring Montreal for fantasy players might consider, instead of favored Cammalleri, grabbing Gionta or Gomez....or both in deep leagues.


THE DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Montreal Canadiens be in contention for the playoffs again this season? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

Tomorrow is the Nashville Predators Season Preview Report by Big Tex. The Frozen Pill will be back Friday previewing the New York Islanders.

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

OGA SPR: The Dallas Stars - by Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Dallas Stars - the 10th installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The DALLAS STARS as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: On Goal Analysis called the Dallas Stars 'Tee Time' (OUT of the playoffs) at Game 73 on March 21st, 2009. The Stars' play was erratic last season, to be polite. Since the conclusion 08/09 season, the Stars players and organization have been very open about their disappointment of team play, cohesion and performance. We will discuss a few of the off-season moves made to change this course in the SUMMER SPLASH section (below) but it should be noted, for all the bad taste left in Stars fans' mouth-guards last season, the team actually flirted with 4 of the 5 of OGA's PQC Status Spectrum designations during the course of their tumultuous season.

By Game 20, they were on the tipping point of OGA having to call them out of the playoffs. But a bit of a resurrection in play (adjustments to key injuries) and goalie Marty Turco valiantly trying to find his happy place on the ice had the Stars pull even with the PQC by Game 30 and then 1.5 points above the Curve by Game 50.

But once the descent began again, there was no recovering and OGA was in the position to call the Stars at 'Tee Time' just short of their mathematical elimination as their trending on the Curve proved to bear out the uncharacteristic season and the Stars finished at a mere 4.15 on the PQC.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: Last season was the 'average-killer' for the Stars as their average performance as measured against the PQC took a hit when missing the playoffs for the first time since the lockout and only the third time since the team relocated in Texas in 1993. While their average still measures respectable (4.988), they can be expected to perform above their average this year for two main reasons. First, they have something to prove to themselves, their fans and the new management in town. Secondly, the never-ending swath of injuries to key players last season actually gave some of the younger players in the system a chance to come in and fill the gaps.

This Stars team will be deeper and have more in-house competition for ice time. But the Stars will need to come out of the gate much stronger than they have the previous three seasons. In 2005-06, they improved their winning percentage between the 10-game and 20-game marks. Since then, however, every season has seen a major drop in production during this ten-game period. If the Stars' fate is to be different this season, this crucial period will be an indicator. And of course, OGA will be watching.

SUMMER SPLASH

• The Dallas Stars made big changes to the organization this summer after last season's experiments with the co-GMs and Sean Avery. Tom Hicks, the owner, replaced the GM leadership by bringing in the 1999 Stars Stanley Cup MVP, Joe Nieuwendyk. Nieuwy then fired Dave Tippett and replaced him with coach Marc Crawford. The effect of this change to team chemistry and play is something all fans and players are anxious to witness.
• Most of the changes to the team this off-season, were in fact, in the team offices and the bench. In addition to Dave Tippett, the Stars have also replaced both assistants on the bench by promoting former player-favorite, Stu Barnes (who assisted from the booth last season) and by hiring former Edmonton assistant, Charlie Huddy who will bring a more offensive-minded style to the Stars defense. This will be the first time the Stars will experiment with such an idea since locating here in 1993 under the tutelage of multi-Selke winning, Bob Gainey.
• Major impact players who are no longer with the organization include Brendan Morrison who only played a handful of games with the Stars but could have been a nice addition to this 're-birth' year if not lost to free agency when he signed with Washington. The hardest loss for Stars' fans to absorb is Sergei Zubov to the Russian KHL league. Stars fans have had it good watching this man QB the Power Play for year after year. But the fans also had a chance to get used to a new-look defense without Zubie as much of his previous two seasons were lost to injury.
• Additions to the team are defensive-oriented. A new backup to challenge and help rest Marty Turco was brought in with the signing of veteran Alex Auld. Karlis Skrastins and Jeff Woywitka were signed to add grit to the blue line. Mysteriously, the Stars signed free agent Warren Peters (LW) from Calgary. Mysterious, because the Stars are already so heavily-loaded on the left side...
• Tom Hicks (owner) has been in the news with some financial issues over the summer, making a few Stars fans wonder about the future of their team. But Hicks is committed to winning with the Dallas Stars and has even sold his stake in the Texas Rangers (MLB) in order to address the financial issues and focus on the Product on Ice. This is good for Stars fans as Hicks has been willing to let his management take risks to produce titles - and knows when to step in for a shake-up, too.
• A huge factor that should play into a revitalized organization is the inaugural year of the Texas Stars - the newest AHL team housed north of Austin in Cedar Park, TX. Last season, the Stars prospects were (homeless) spread around multiple minor leagues. Now, the additional cast members are 3 hours (speed-limit) south of the American Airlines Center.
  

THE FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Mike Ribeiro (C) and/or Brendan Morrow (LW). A 'two-fer', if you will on The Sure Thing... Ribeiro because he has been stellar since joing the Stars from Montreal three seasons ago. He led the team in points (78) last season and is getting more responsibilities on the team. Morrow because the spark-plug Captain is the heart and soul of this team and is very anxious to get back on his ship. He only played in 18 games last season, but was playing at almost a point-per-game when injury ended his season. But he is healthy and rehabbed and you can bet will be anxious to take advantage of the new offensive minded-systems being established in Dallas.

TrustyRusty: Brad Richards (C). Last season was supposed to be Brad Richards true debut with the Dallas Stars after having only been acquired at the trade deadline in 2007/08. But injuries made it so Richards only played in 56 games last season. And here's where you can tell the Stars were not at their peak last season - in 56 games Richards ended third in scoring for the Stars with 48 points. He is healthy and has been working out since the Stars finished play last regular season. Expect some big numbers from his this year as the 'acclamation' period is truly over.

Up and Coming: Loui Eriksson (LW). By now, even hockey fans who barely pay attention to Dallas know who Loui Eriksson is. If they still don't, they will notice him as they browse player stats while trying to setup their ultimate fantasy teams. Loui, in his sophomore year, not only finished second on the team in scoring but led the team in plus/minus finishing a very respectable plus-14. The plus/minus stat was not favorable to the Stars last season and his closest teammates were at plus-10 (Stephane Robidas-D) and plus-5 (Landon Wilson who only played in 27 games). Eriksson played in all 82 games last season and will look to better his 36 goals scored in last year's campaign. Get to know Loui before your league's competitors do.

Under the Radar: Steve Ott (LW). Ott is under the radar because many refuse to think of Ott as a points producer and prefer to focus on his PIMs. But last seasons point totals may prove to be less of a fluke and more of a player-progression. It may be Ott has discovered his hands are quite capable for many uses and having played much of last season with a broken hand, unable to fight, Ott found some scoring when the gloves stayed on. Ott finished fifth on the team with 46 points and while bookending the broken hand, led the team in PIMs at 135. His confidence and health are at a prime and don't you be surprised to see Steve Ott surprise even more analysts this season.

The Watchful Eye: James Neal (LW). Neal enters his sophomore season after having a phenomenal debut in his first season with 37 points (24 goals) and placing sixth on the roster in scoring - so we'll have to see if Neal is prone to a sophomore slump or more greatness (like Eriksson last season) if paired on the right line. Although, the Watchful Eye is normally gazing towards the minors, the Stars' best chance of a call-up or a surprise at camp is defenseman Ivan Vishnevskiy. The second rated prospect is Jamie Benn who tore up the WHL last season (42 goals, 23 assists in 53 games) but the Stars hope to have him play a full season in the AHL this season and continue to improve his skating and defensive play. So, watch Benn - but keep a closer eye on Neal if he's available as a free agent during the season.

The Crease: Marty Turco. Last year was an anomaly for the steady net minder. Turco has taken his licks in the press for last season's performance but with Alexander Auld having been brought in for backup/competition purposes, Turco will be anxious to prove last year was a fluke and he is still the face in net of the Dallas Stars - an elite goalie with an unconventional style. Should you take him for your fantasy game? I predict those who take the gamble and draft/sign Turco will be rewarded this season. Just don't expect him to play every night (unless ridiculously hot) as new management has tagged his many starts as an issue - meaning, Turco gets no time to sit on the bench and mull what could have been (or rest or practice certain aspects of his game) and this has contributed to his softening in net. In fact, Turco almost made the Frozen Pill's 'Mad Scientist' player choice for the 'gamble' factor. But that honor is reserved for one of America's greatest...

Mad Scientist: Mike Modano (C). Depending upon the value/salary your fantasy game applies to Modano, this may just be a great 'sneaker' pick for you. Most are going to assume his fantasy value is down significantly since his game the previous few seasons has been more focused on his defensive smarts and back-checking abilities. He has indeed played often on the third and even the fourth line. But in his twilight and still very dangerous, he enters the 09/10 NHL season as his last. And he wants one more Cup. At the beginning of the previous season, it looked as though he may carry the team on his back to the playoffs. But the frequent injuries to his teammates made it too heavy a burden to lift and he succumbed to the frustrations of the long campaign while still managing to finish fourth on the team in scoring. But don't you think he'll be motivated in this, his last season? You bet. And I hope to surprise a few by having Modano on my team for depth and scoring more points than most would expect.


THE DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Dallas STARS be in contention for the playoffs again this season? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

Tomorrow is Hump Day and Big Tex brings you the SPR for the Detroit Red Wings. How fitting.

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

OGA SPR: The Carolina Hurricanes - Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis' 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Carolina Hurricanes - the 5th installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill's Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The CAROLINA HURRICANES as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: On Goal Analysis called the Carolina Hurricanes 'Chasing Stanley' (IN the playoffs) at Game 79 on April 4th, 2009. In fact, Carolina was the last team for whom OGA made the 'IN' call during the final weeks of the regular season. Remember, last season was a nail-biter as several teams fought for the remaining playoff spots available at the bottom of the stack in each conference. Carolina found their way in and sure made an impression once there. I know Bruins and Devils fans remember...

The Hurricanes finished the season with a PQC rating of 4.85 - testament to playing consistent 'Canes hockey as the team's post-lockout average of PQC rating 4.88. But it was close-skating earlier in the season when the Hurricanes were just short of OGA calling them out of playoff contention when their play suffered from Games 20 through 30. Entering Game 20, Carolina was a full point above the PQC mean-line but just 10 grueling games later and 8 losses out of 10 games (1 OT loss and 2 Shootout losses), they fell 2.5 points below the Curve.

By Game 40, they were back to 1 point above the Curve and by Game 50, back to 2 full points below. What a wild ride their season was and it served as a preview for the type of playoff hockey the 'Canes would bring to post-season. Buzzer beaters and comebacks, the 'Canes knew roller-coaster hockey last season.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: Again, Carolina's average is 4.88 against the PQC. And they show some remarkable trending when examining each of the seasons. Not considering the meteoric run to the Stanley Cup hoist in 2005-06, their play has been similar season to season for the first half. They tend to play at or just above the PQC baseline until around Game 40. Then it's two seasons above and two below. How will the 2009/10 season change their average? Well, expectations are high after having advanced all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. And now the league knows it's high tide again with Hurricanes making the Southeast Division less comfortable for the Washington Capitals.

SUMMER SPLASH

• A fairly quiet summer in the Carolinas for Hurricane season. Fan-fave Erik Cole was awarded a new 2-year deal as was Chad LaRose. A bevy of contracts come due next season, so the 'Canes obviously feel confident about the team they have assembled for Paul Maurice who took over the coaching duties midway through last season.
• 36-year old Aaron Ward came home from Boston to begin his second stint with the Hurricanes. Ward played with them from 2001-2006 and his family never left the area.
• Lackluster Patrick Eaves went the other way to Boston in the Ward trade and Frantisek Kaberle was bought out of his contract.
• Other notable additions to the team are Tom Kostopoulos, Andrew Alberts and just recently, Stephan Yelle.
• The Hurricanes wanted a slightly bigger, tougher team this season and it looks like they have accomplished this goal during the off-season while also adding some veteran leadership.
  

THE FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Eric Staal (C). Last season, Ray Whitney actually led the team in scoring and is obviously still a force of offense. But Eric gets the tip here because, although finishing two points behind Mr. Whitney, you cannot ignore Eric's +15 rating as compared to Ray's +2. The biggest reason to go with Staal? You probably won't miss him due to injury because he is iron. He has missed only 1 game since 2003 and has scored 30+ goals per season in the previous four. Get some Staal if you can. The Eric version.

TrustyRusty: Ray Whitney (LW). 77 points last season is very respectable. Having 18 more assists than the closest teammate and nearly a 1/3 of his goals coming on the PP means he can be trusted to setup scoring chances. And unless your fantasy game hates assists, you need to pick a playmaker for your team. Always.

Up and Coming: Chad LaRose (RW). Chad begins his 5th NHL season this year, all with Carolina and is really coming into his own. He is only 27 and he put home 19 goals last season. The season previous (07-08) he had 11 goals in 58 games. Expect even more production and ice time for Chad this season.

Under the Radar: Jussi Jokinen (L). A late-season acquisition (rescue) from the Lightning, Jussi played 25 games with the Hurricanes and had only 1 goal (11 assists). But do you recall what he did in the playoffs for Carolina? 7 goals in 18 games. And the quality of the goals were pretty tasty, too. With some confident hands he was the 'shootout' maestro when in Dallas, so expect more confident play this regular season as he settles into the Hurricane organization.

The Watchful Eye: Zach Boychuk (LW). While many hope to see Boychuk join the team at the RBC Center on a regular basis, this top prospect from the 2008 draft will most likely spend the season in Albany due to Carolina having plenty of folks up front. But if the injury ninja strikes, keep an eye out for this kid. He's a point-per-game 19 year old in the minors and comes with big expectations.

The Crease: Cam Ward. Last season, the Frozen Pill ended up with 'Goalie Cam' in a Yahoo league with autodraft. Other players may have snickered at the Pill's fate, but not by the time the season was over and Cam was 3rd in the NHL with 39 wins.

Mad Scientist: Sergei Samsanov (LW). Samsanov hit his stride again last season after having dropped off in production (big-time) once he left Boston. But he's back and found his sweet spot in Carolina midway through the season. Now that he's comfortable and his confidence is back, we could see a big year for Sergei assuming, as with all players, he is used on a top-two line and given Power Play time.

THE DAILY TIP IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Carolina Hurricanes be in contention for the playoffs again this season? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can, too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA's Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams' chances of qualifying for the playoffs - potentially well before the mathematical call is made - in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30th.

Tomorrow is Sunday and Big Tex brings you the 'First Church of the Faceoff' (his line, not mine) with daily devotion to the Chicago Blackhawks. Here come the 'Hawks!

Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com

OGA SPR: The Calgary Flames – Frozen Pill

This is On Goal Analysis’ 2009/10 Season Preview Report (SPR) for the Calgary Flames – the 4^th installment of our daily previews leading to the start of the new season!

Fantasy Players - be sure to read the Frozen Pill’s Fantasy Dose at the conclusion of the post.

The CALGARY FLAMES as Measured against the OGA Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)

Last Season VS the PQC: On Goal Analysis called the Calgary Flames Chasing Stanley (IN the playoffs) at Game 38 on January 3^rd, 2009. They did indeed qualify for the playoffs in the middle of the Western pack, finishing 5^th in the conference – 6 points ahead of St. Louis and 6 points behind Chicago to whom they would lose a rousing series in 6 games.

The Devil didn’t make them do it, but he may be found within the details. Calgary finished the 08-09 season with a PQC rating of 4.9 – which just happens to be their exact post-lockout average.

Post-Lockout Average VS the PQC: Consistency is the hallmark of this organization when the Flames’ play is measured against the PQC. Calgary rides the Curve year after year but, because they do, they make the playoffs each spring having secured a playoff berth in each of the four seasons since the lockout.

Their baseline differential from the PQC never strays far. Post-lockout, the Flames never play higher than 2.5 points above the Curve – but never play lower than -1.5 points against the PQC, either.

The season prior to the lockout, the Flames were the Western Conference Champions.

Yet Calgary has flamed out in the opening round of post-season play each year since then. Obviously, they must find a way to advance in the playoffs. And if their historical performance as measured against the PQC holds true this season, they will be there again to fight that fight.

SUMMER SPLASH

• Brent Sutter was named new coach in June.

• Hoping to both sure up the defense (a top priority for the new coach) and improve on the Power Play (the Flames finished 21^st last season), the Flames made big news with the off-season addition of Jay Bouwmeester.

• Flames’ second overall scoring leader Michael Cammalleri signed with Montreal creating a vacancy in the ‘netting goals’ department. Will Olli Jokinen (obtained at last season’s trade deadline) allow Calgary to bypass ‘replacing’ Cammalleri? Time will tell, but Jokinen seemed to be a good fit in Calgary at the conclusion of the regular season and in the six playoff games against Chicago.

• Jordan (Easy Come, Easy Go) Leopold is gone (again) as part of the Bouwmeester deal but the Flames brought back the feisty fan favorite, Brandon Prust.

• Adrian Aucoin signed with Phoenix and Big Todd the Bertuzzi is moving to Detroit.

Interesting Flames Factoid: Calgary has lost each of its season openers in the previous four seasons. Now, if I were a betting man….

THE FANTASY DOSE

The Sure Thing: Jarome Iginla (RW). Because he is the heart and soul, the cog on which the team turns…and he scores lots of points (89 last season). When wondering if you shouldn’t try Olli Jokinen instead, just remember - every season some fantasy GM complains on the message board about Iginla’s slow start to the year. Then, midway through the season, the same GM is commenting how smart he was to stick with Iginla. Don’t be that guy. Take Jarome if you can get him. It will work out for you just fine.

TrustyRusty: Dion Phaneuf (D) is a pretty safe bet on any fantasy roster’s D-squad. He eats Power Play time like its dinner at the farmhouse and he is not prone to injury having missed only 5 regular season games since 2005.

Up and Coming: Rene Bourque (LW). Bourque, a lefty, may get to fill some of the ice time (alongside Iginla) formerly skated by Mike Cammalleri. His career year last season found him scoring 40 points in only 58 games for his first season with the Flames. Expect even more this season.

Under the Radar: David Moss (LW). This kid could end up playing on the second line this season in Calgary. He popped in 20 goals and 19 assists to little notoriety. Grab him deep in the draft and then thank me later.

The Watchful Eye: Mikael Backlund (C). Calgary’s top prospect is fast, a playmaker, a scoring threat and quick to backcheck. If he makes the squad out of camp, keep an eye on him as a ‘free-agent signing’ during the course of the fantasy season.

The Crease: Take a goalie from Calgary in the fantasy draft? Uh, yeah. Miikka Kiprusoff plays tons of games every season. And in 08/09, no goalie had more wins (45), faced more shots (2155) or made more saves (1946). Kippers is a Keeper.

Mad Scientist: Craig Conroy (C). Most may view Craig as being on the sunset side of his twilight years but you can’t overlook 36 assists (12 goals) and his team leading +20 rating last season. For reference, Iginla finished -2. And he played all 82 games.

THE DAILY TIP-IN REPORT (DTIR)

Will the Calgary Flames maintain their role as a ‘model of consistency’ and ride the Curve, never straying far and find themselves back in the hunt for Lord Stanley’s Cup once again next spring? Well, they have to start playing the games before anyone knows. But give us ten games and we might be able to tell you. OGA knows. And you can too.

Make sure to sign up for the daily, bargain-priced analytical tool for your NHL analysis and fantasy needs by ordering the OGA Daily Tip-In Report (DTIR). For only $10.00, the season-long subscription to the DTIR is delivered to you each morning via email (minus the Olympics, of course). With OGA’s Daily Tip-In, you will have insight to the teams’ chances of qualifying for the playoffs – potentially well before the mathematical call is made – in addition to important team notes as their play is measured each night against the PQC. See a teaser and read it about the DTIR here.

And remember, the OGA 2008/09 Report Card (how accurate are our calls?) will be posted at the conclusion of the SPRs on September 30^th.

Tomorrow brings us another dose of the Frozen Pill with the Carolina Season Preview Report. Hurricane season is upon us.

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