The NHL Weekend Roadie: West Coast Stargazing

Another week, another NHL Weekend Roadie. If you don't already have plans for the second weekend in November, well...you do now. As with all OGA-approved roadies, it’s guaranteed good, featuring two games between divisional rivals and a bonus game between a Cup contender and a talented young team on the rise. If that’s not enough entertainment for one weekend, you can also go to Disneyland. Intrigued? Read on:

The itinerary:

NHL Week Six (Thursday, 11 NOV – Saturday, 13 NOV)

Thursday, 11 NOV: Dallas @ Los Angeles – The last time these teams met, the Stars were embarrassed, 5-2, on home ice. They’ll be looking to return the favor on their first West Coast trip of the season, and they’ve got the firepower to do it. This is a contract year for Dallas pivot Brad Richards, and his stats (10GP, 3-11-14, +7) indicate his desire for a raise. Wings James Neal, Loui Eriksson and Brenden Morrow lead the Stars with 5, 5 and 6 goals, respectively…The Kings, led by Justin Williams’ 5-6-11, +5 in 11 games, are no slouches, either, and currently sit atop the Western Conference with a record of 8-3-0. Expect a hard-hitting game with plenty of scoring on this night.

Friday, 12 NOV: Dallas @ Anaheim – The last time these teams met, the Stars were embarrassed, 5-2, on home ice. Does that sentence sound familiar? Well, that’s exactly what happened. Dallas will be looking for revenge for the second night in a row. The fatigued Stars should start backup goalie Andrew Raycroft against the Ducks, as well as a player or two who were scratched Thursday night. One of those fresh players will undoubtedly be enforcer/winger Krys Barch. The Stars and Ducks, division rivalry aside, really do not like each other. If Barch doesn’t drop gloves with George Parros, I’ll eat my fedora.

Saturday, 13 NOV: NY Islanders @ Los Angeles – Head back to the Staples Center Saturday night to catch the Islanders – Kings game. The Isles, led by 2nd-year centerman John Tavares, are currently battling injuries to a couple of key players (Mark Streit and Kyle Okposo), but have enough individual talent to make for an entertaining game (and a solid win for the home team, if they stay focused). Besides, the boys from Long Island count one of the toughest players in the NHL among their number: Zenon Konopka. Konopka’s 265 PIMs led the league in 2009-10, and he’s currently on pace for 373 this season. Hey – if your first name was “Zenon”, you’d fight a lot, too.

As with last weeks’ trip, this is three games in three nights in two arenas. The difference is the short driving distance between games, which allows for more free time during the day. Live it up – go to Disneyland during the day and watch exciting NHL games at night. Does life get any better? Okay, maybe if there was an NHL team in Las Vegas…

HOTELS – As always, the OGA Boys recommend Hotwire.com for your accommodations. As always, we anxiously await a check from Hotwire for our weekly plugs. For the weekend in question, a room in a three-star establishment within 4 miles of the Staples Center may currently be had for $84/night, while 3.5 stars within 4 miles of the Honda Center (and Disneyland) are listed at $66/night. Where you stay depends on your choice of extrapuckular activities, so plan carefully.

FLIGHTS – The OGA Boys suggest an early morning flight on Thursday, so you have plenty of time to check into your hotel and catch a pregame nap, even if your flight is delayed. Remember: you gain time flying west, but lose it going back east. Plan accordingly.

FOOD – The tremendous number and variety of restaurants in the greater Los Angeles area can be overwhelming. To help narrow it down, we recommend roadfood.com and flavortownusa.com – you can’t go wrong with either one. Two tips: First, if you go to the Nickel Diner for breakfast, don’t miss the Maple Bacon Donut. Second, none may claim to be a fan of the French Dip without making the pilgrimage to Philippe’s, the (alleged) birthplace of the bread, beef and au jus masterpiece. If thoughts of maple bacon donuts and French Dips don’t put a rumbly in your tumbly, you’re on your own.

TICKETS – A decent selection of seats remain for the Stars-Kings game, but they’re selling fast. If you can’t find what you like through Ticketmaster, try either the Kings TicketExchange or StubHub.com. Plenty of good seats are available for Islanders-Kings. The Stars-Ducks contest Friday night is far from sold out, though premium seats near the benches or penalty boxes will have to be purchased through TicketExchange or StubHub.

GETTING AROUND – If you don’t want to drive around El Lay, well, we understand completely. While some driving can’t be avoided, you can take Metrolink rail to both the Staples Center and Honda Center. If you take the train to the two Kings games and buy your tickets at the arena box office, show your Metrolink ticket stub and get a 10% discount on your game ducat (NOTE: The OGA Boys strongly recommend purchasing your tickets in advance for the Stars-Kings game, as it will most likely sell out).

This might just be the most relaxing NHL Weekend Roadie yet: Two games between division rivals, a third game between the Kings and the up-and-coming Islanders, and you can stay in the same hotel for the duration of the trip. Great hockey and a great time, guaranteed.

DO NOT MISS the next installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie, as we send you on an NHL odyssey which will push your Significant Other to the limits of his/her endurance! Wanna test the strength of your relationship? Just tell your S.O. you’re seriously considering taking this road trip.

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The NHL Weekend Roadie: California Dreamin'

OGA’s second installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie highlights a road trip for the second weekend of the 2010-2011 season. For Opening Weekend, we suggested a very doable four games in three days on the East Coast. Our theme for Week Two is (drum roll please)…California Dreamin’.

Here’s the itinerary:

NHL Week Two (Friday, 15 OCT – Monday, 18 OCT)

Friday, 15 OCT: Vancouver @ Los Angeles – Though this will only be the Kings’ fourth game of the season, it’ll be their second against the Canucks. Vancouver eliminated Los Angeles in six games in the Conference Quarter-finals last April, so expect a physical game on Figueroa.

Saturday, 16 OCT: Detroit @ Phoenix – After two games in Prague to start the season, the Coyotes return to the desert for their home opener against the Hated Red Wings. Last spring, these two clubs went the distance in the Conference Quarter-finals, with Detroit coming out on top. Obviously, there’s no love lost here. From El Lay, Phoenix is just 370 miles east on I-10 – less than six hours by car. Easy drive.

Sunday, 17 OCT: Phoenix @ Anaheim – If you spend Saturday night in Phoenix (we recommend it), don’t plan to sleep in on Sunday, as the Coyotes and Ducks drop puck at 5:00pm local time. This will be the first meeting of the season for these Pacific Division rivals. Catch this game and save a little money by flying home on Monday.

There it is: three games, in three arenas, in three days. ‘Nucks, Ducks, Kings, Wings and Desert Dogs. Playoff and division rivals. Sand. Sun. Surf. Wearing t-shirts and shorts to hockey games. Beats the hell out of Edmonton in February, says I.

HOTEL – Again, we suggest Hotwire.com (if only they’d pay us for saying that!). One valuable tip regarding Hotwire: ONLY book rooms at hotels rated three stars and up. Don’t even get me started about the two-star dive in Harrisburg, PA, with bedbugs and a haunted shower.

FLIGHTS – As always, allow yourself a healthy time cushion if you’re flying in on game day, to account for possible flight delays. We recommend an early morning flight for a Friday night game, as that gives you plenty of time to get your rental car, have a good lunch, check into your hotel, and maybe grab a pre-game nap. The nice thing about flying to the West Coast is the time you gain along the way. The bad thing about flying home from the West Coast is the time you lose.

FOOD – Never been to Los Angeles or Phoenix and want something good you can’t get anywhere else, but don’t know where to go? Two good places to find what you seek are Roadfood.com and Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (yet another free advertisement, dammit). In particular, I have to say Guy Fieri (host of Triple-D) has good taste. I’ve eaten at a half-dozen establishments he’s raved about on his show, and every single one has lived up to the hype. You just can’t go wrong with one of his recommendations.

TICKETS – Single-game tickets for the Canucks @ Kings tilt go on sale 9 SEP. Tickets for Coyotes @ Ducks go on sale 28 AUG. As for tickets for the Hated Red Wings @ Coyotes, well…the ‘Yotes ain’t tellin’. Early September is a good guess, though.

GETTING AROUND – You’ll need to rent a car to get to Phoenix and back, so you might as well make it your primary transportation for the weekend. Traffic in Los Angeles is some of the worst in the U.S., so budget your time accordingly. I-10 between LA and Phoenix should be smooth sailing.

So that’s your second NHL Weekend Roadie: a Pacific Division trifecta. What are you waiting for? Book it, Dano.

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Monday, Monday: Day 49 of the Lockout

The NHL steps back onto the ice tonight after a rare day off, playing three games. Of the three contests, the most compelling (in my not-really-all-that-humble opinion) is San Jose's rare visit to Madison Square Garden. The New York Rangers are red-hot, having tied the best record through eight games in franchise history (7-1-0). San Jose's play has been a bit uneven in the early going (as evidenced by their 4-3-1 record), but Dany Heatley (5G, 5A, +3) has been en fuego. The Rangers, of course, have an answer for Heatley in Marian Gaborik (6G, 6A, +8). Coming into tonight's game, both teams are undefeated when scoring first, so...unless this game is scoreless going into a shootout, that stat is going to change for one team. This is the game to watch tonight, provided you don't have DirecTV (like me, dammit). If you do have DirecTV, this is Day 49 of the Lockout, and you'll have to look to the other two games of the night for your hockey fix:

Los Angeles @ Dallas (8:30pm EST): The Kings' wheels-off road show comes to Dallas. This is the final game of a six-game road trip for Los Angeles, and they've lost the last three. Dallas, meanwhile, is 1-1-1 at home and 0-1-1 when Big Tex is in attendance, so expect the Stars to take full advantage of my absence tonight and kick the Kings while they're down.

Vancouver @ Edmonton (9:00pm EST): The injury-depleted Canucks (3-4-0) limp into Edmonton for an intra-Canada skirmish. The Oilers (4-2-1) are reaping the benefits of a rejuvenated Dustin Penner (5G, 4A, +5) (Honorable Mention: Mike Comrie (3G, 3A, +4) ), while the Canucks enter the game with 50% fewer Sedins than normal. Team Captain Roberto Luongo will have to stand tall in the crease if Vancouver hopes to earn a point (or two) tonight.

This looks to be a big week across the league, as On Goal Analysis could POTENTIALLY call as many as FOURTEEN TEAMS either IN or OUT of the Stanley Cup Playoffs by Sunday, 25 Oct. That's right: the fates of almost half the NHL could be decided this week. How do we know what we know? Check out 'The Tao of OGA' for an explanation, and our 2008-09 Report Card to see our results.

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OGA SPR: The Los Angeles Kings - by Big Tex

Today, OGA looks at the Los Angeles Kings, Western Conference whipping boys for the past four seasons. Will 2009-10 be the season for the Kings to start kicking sand in other kids' faces? Let's take a look...

Last Season versus the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC): Reached Tee Time on 31 January 09 (Game 48). After a slow start (3-6-1 at Game 10), the Kings found themselves behind the 8-ball. LA improved, going 5-3-2 through Games 11-20 to pull up almost even with the PQC. They continued to play just below the PQC, posting an identical 5-3-2 record in Games 21-30. Los Angeles then began to run out of steam, posting a 4-5-1 record through the fourth furlong to end up Dusting Off Clubs (on the verge of playoff elimination) at Game 40. They continued to slump, going 3-4-1 over the next eight games, and forcing OGA to make the call of Tee Time at Game 48. Following that call, the Kings went 14-16-4 the rest of the way to finish 3.95 vs. the PQC (34-37-11, 14th in the Western Conference).

Post Lockout Average versus the PQC: Since the Lockout, Los Angeles has averaged 3.8 vs. the Playoff Qualifying Curve. After posting a respectable 4.45 in 2005-06, they dropped to 3.4 the following season, improving slightly to 3.55 in 2007-08. In the last three seasons, LA has reached Tee Time on 7 December 06, 10 December 07 and 31 January 09. The Kings fooled OGA once, by starting the 2005-06 season 13-6-1 and causing us to call them Chasing Stanley on 25 October 2005. Unfortunately for them (and for OGA’s batting average), LA only played half the season – after Game 40, they played consistently below the PQC and missed the playoffs, becoming a Shot Off the Post (a blown call) for OGA. Here at On Goal Analysis, we break the season down into ten-game segments (furlongs) for the purposes of our analysis. Thus, we can tell you that Game 40 of the 05-06 season marked a turning point for Los Angeles: In the three-and-a-half seasons since, they’ve only played above the PQC in 2 of 28 furlongs. It’s been a brutal four years for the Kings, but they’re moving closer to the light at the end of the tunnel…

How does Los Angeles look heading into the 2009-10 season?

Team Play: ISSUE – Assembling the Puzzle. The Kings bottomed out in 2006-07, and have steadily improved since. On paper, it appears GM Dean Lombardi has collected enough pieces to assemble the puzzle – a Stanley Cup Playoff-caliber team. In July, LA made a couple of significant moves: On July 2nd, they signed free agent blueliner Rob Scuderi from the Stanley Cup Champs. The next day, they sent defensemen Tom Priessing and Kyle Quincey to Colorado for power forward Ryan Smyth. Trade rumors continue to swirl around the Kings (including the now-debunked myth of LA being part of a three-team deal with Ottawa and San Jose involving Dany Heatley), but the thinking here is that unless someone makes Lombardi an offer he can’t refuse, he’ll now put the roster in the capable hands of Head Coach Terry Murray, and see what sort of team the coach can assemble.

One thing is certain: it will be a young team, as 33-year-old Ryan Smyth instantly becomes the oldest forward (in fact, Michal Handzus (32) and Raitis Ivanans (30) are the only other forwards over the age of 27), and four of the Kings’ top six d-men will be 26 or younger…Oh, yeah: Erik Ersberg, 27, is the only goalie on Los Angeles’ training camp roster over the age of 23.

Look for the Kings to continue to improve in 09-10, but in a very tough Western Conference, their playoff chances will depend just as much on other teams’ failures as on their own successes.

Fantasy Value: In his pre-training camp blog, Rich Hammond asks a question which gets right to the heart of Terry Murray’s “To Do” list: Finding the right combinations for the Kings’ first AND second lines. As the model line of Net Crasher-Playmaker-Sniper has proven quite successful (see: Dallas), expect Coach Murray to put together pairs of wings (Frolov-Brown and Smyth-Williams), and figure out which centers best mesh with those pairs. In the end, Kopitar will probably center Frolov and Brown again in 09-10, and their numbers can be expected to improve with the addition of a legitimate second line (Smyth-Stoll-Williams).

On defense, keep an eye on Drew Doughty (81GP, 6-21-27, -17). With the departure of Kyle Quincey, expect the sophomore’s responsibilities (and points) to increase. This kid is the real deal.

In goal…well, it’s probably Jonathan Quick (21-18-2, .914 Sv%, 2.48 GAA, 4 SO), but he’ll have some challengers in training camp. Because Quick has yet to make the starting job his own, and because LA is really still climbing to reach the middle of the pack, Quick should be a late-round pick in deep leagues.

Schedule Analysis: ISSUE – Last season, the Kings were doomed by their 3-6-1 start. This season, they have a 6-game, 10-day road trip in their first furlong, playing @: STL, NYI, NYR, DET, CBJ and DAL. NYR and DET are back-to-back, and the Kings have FIVE different start times for these six games. If LA can play .500 hockey through their first ten games, they’ll have passed a very important early test.

Today, the Kings. Tomorrow, OGA goes WILD…

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"Who's Got JR?" A Video Tribute - Frozen Pill

This post was going to be for the San Jose Sharks Off-Season Update. However, with yesterday's retirement of Jeremy Roenick after 1363 NHL games played over 20 seasons, this post shall be a quick tribute to the end of the Era of JR. Considered by many as the current ambassador of hockey, JR was also the NHL's rock star long before Ovie-1 hit the scene in DC.

In his younger years, he was brash and mouthy and brought less-than-fond attention to himself and the game at times. But as Roenick matured through the years, he brought a certain passion to the game through his play and conduct that could enamor even the most ardent fan of the opposing team on any given night. And Jeremy would be the first to discuss (and has many times) the difference between the player he was and the player he would become in his later years.

And whether you loved or hated him, Jeremy was simply fun and embodied something unique...a bridge between the players of yesteryear's gritty hockey games and the new, flashy skill of today's NHL.

Agitator, Great American goal-scorer and entertainer, I give you JR. A man tough enough to hit Bob Probert, curiously play with his broken jaw on the bench...and white-man dance in front of thousands of viewers. Enjoy this tribute to some of Jeremy's 'other' hockey moments.

The "Non-Traditional" Invasion Begins

Well, well, well...The 2009 NHL Entry Draft took place last weekend, and Big Tex feels like doing a little victory dance. Some of you may remember a blog post from early May, in which I stated that non-traditional market teams were helping to grow the NHL's talent pool. Others may remember me making the same argument in comments on one of my favorite sites, Illegal Curve. Naturally, as I watched the draft, I was particularly cognizant of draftees from "Non-Traditional" markets. Here's the breakdown, by state of birth:

Utah: 1 (Dylan Olsen - 28th - CHI)
Texas: 1 (Chris Brown - 36th - PHX)
Colorado: 2 (Matt Clark - 37th - ANA & Drew Shore - 44th - FLA)
California: 3 (Kyle Bigos - 99th - EDM, Brandon Kozun - 179th - LAK & Mitchell Callahan - 180th - DET)
Florida: 1 (Brandon Maxwell - 154th - COL)
Arizona: 1 (Anthony Hamburg - 193rd - MIN)(NOTE: Hamburg gets DOUBLE non-traditional points because he was drafted out of the Dallas Stars' AAA Midget team)
Alabama: 1 (Nic Dowd - 198th - LAK)

That's a total of TEN draftees from non-traditional markets. According to nhl.com, that makes the 2009 Non-Traditional Market Draft Class roughly 43% larger than the 2009 Russian Draft Class. Yes, I'm well aware of the reasons (KHL) behind the NHL's reluctance (no transfer agreement) to draft Russians these days (KHL, cough, cough), but it is heartening to see the development of a new talent pool to help offset the rapidly dwindling Russian pipeline. The question all you makeitseven folks should ask yourselves is this: Without the Stars, Avalanche, Coyotes, Panthers and KingsDucksSharks (among others), would these kids have been drafted into the NHL, NFL or MLB?

I'll say it again, both because I believe it and because I like to repeat myself: Non-traditional market franchises, while an affront to Canadian and East Coast hockey purists, are helping grow the NHL talent pool. In the long-term, the growth of the talent pool will allow for expansion without a significant drop-off in quality of the on-ice product, and will gradually raise the level of play throughout the league. So, in regards to the so-called "Southern Strategy", I'm going to say something I've never directly stated before now, and may never say again: Gary Bettman was right.

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Vancouver, Los Angeles, and the Third Kind of Lie

Mark Twain once quoted Benjamin Disraeli, saying:

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I was reminded of this quote while looking at the team statistics for both Vancouver and Los Angeles at the Game 70 mark. As I type this, Vancouver has overtaken Chicago for the 4th spot in the Western Conference, and is just 3 points behind Calgary for the division lead (and with it, the 3rd playoff seed). OGA called the Canucks IN the playoffs way back on November 20th, and their 8-1-1 surge over the last ten games has cemented their place in the postseason.

At the other end of the spectrum, Los Angeles is currently 13th in the West, sitting 7 points out of the 8th, and final, playoff berth. On Goal Analysis called Los Angeles OUT of the playoffs on January 31st, and they would need a hot streak on the magnitude of Pittsburgh, New Jersey, or Vancouver in order to prove OGA wrong.

Based solely on standings and record over the last ten games, the Canucks and Kings would seem worlds apart, and growing further apart with each game. Looking at certain team statistics, however, paints a surprisingly different picture. Consider the season-long performance of both teams, for the following categories:

Power Play...VAN: 18.9%(17th)...LAK: 20.1%(11th)
Penalty Kill...VAN: 80.2%(20th)...LAK: 82.8%(T-7th)
Shots/gm...VAN: 28.5(T-23rd)...LAK: 29.8(14th)
Shots Against/gm...VAN: 29.1(10th)...LAK: 27.6(2nd)
Win % when Scoring 1st...VAN: .683(14th)...LAK: .686(T-11th)
Faceoff win %...VAN: 51.3%(T-7th)...LAK: 52.3%(T-3rd)

Given the current playoff picture for both teams, those statistics are quite surprising. The next logical question is: What, then, has put Vancouver in 4th place in the West and Los Angeles in 13th?

The answer is found by applying Occam's Razor: Goals. Goals, both For and Against, separate these two teams.

GF/gm...VAN: 3.00(10th)...LAK: 2.59(23rd)
GA/gm...VAN: 2.64(6th)...LAK: 2.81(T-13th)

Scoring more and allowing fewer goals gives Vancouver the edge in two other critical categories: Win % when Trailing 1st and Win % when Leading after 2 periods.

Tr 1st...VAN: .345(14th)...LAK: .171(28th)
Ld after 2...VAN: .893(10th)...LAK: .840(24th)

Coming back after allowing the first goal in a game and holding a lead through the 3rd period are critical to overall success. Both of these stats are traced directly back to goals. Vancouver has a goal differential of +22, while Los Angeles is at -20, and that, ultimately, is why the Canucks are CHASING STANLEY, while the Kings are at TEE TIME.

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