The Next CBA: Part II – The Colonel

Last Night’s “The Next CBA: Part I” discussed the verbiage in a proposed, next CBA and how it would monetize over several years.

This morning, I provide Part II of this blog beginning with discussion of the CBA’s impact on Management/The League and Players and closing with an overlay of the impact of this change on top of a current team’s salary breakdown to show how they would have to alter their contracts to meet the new CBA’s recommended changes…

Management/The League

Overall, this CBA maintains a Salary Cap that is in the same rink with current costs. Likewise, it increases or decreases at a manageably predictable amount based on periodic FYAs of revenue. And it also closes a Cap Hit circumvention loophole based on cheap, ‘throw-away’ years at contract’s end by providing team’s flexibility in the form of an FCA window for any, designated player to age 32 and limiting the years of all other players’ contracts.

An excellent way to look at how this cap works overall is to attempt to reconstruct the disavowed, 17-year Kovalchuk deal under this proposed CBA’s rules.

If tomorrow we were looking at beginning the 2012-13 season, Kovy was still his current age 27, and the New Jersey Devils still wanted an over $100M contract but at a Cap Hit under $7M in any given year to allow for room to extend Parise and Elias, here is one way to structure it. First, designate Kovalchuk the team’s FPC I. Then, between his 27th and 32nd years, give him a contract like the following with an AAV of $6.934M:


Afterwards, give him seven, consecutive two-year contracts at the NFC Ceiling up to age 42 for a total projection of $101.6M/$6.35M AAV over the course of all eight contracts/16 years. Basically, this is one year shy of the disbanded contract term, for about the same amount, but in a CBA-compliant, Cap Hit pill the NHL can swallow. While it is true his original Cap Hit is $7.23M, remember tat Elias is already 34 so has to sign to either an NFC or an LMC which is lower than he is currently making. It is designating Parise as the FCP II that will make a Cap Hit average between the two players higher than expected with the 17-year Kovalchuk contract that was stricken down. But this may even out as Kovy results to an NFC contract in follow-on seasons.

FPC I’s, II’s and III’s serve to limit the number of players making over the $6M per season mark until the 11th year this new CBA comes into effect. (Thereafter, the NFC Maximum begins under $6M.) While this might not meet the desires of the NHLPA, in comparing this to current contracts is enlightening.

There are seven teams which currently have no players awarded a contract meeting the FPC I, II or III dollar amounts (ANA, ATL, EDM, FLA, NSH, NYI and STL). This would not preclude teams from designating a player to each FPC level for RFA compensation purposes, but would also require at least one year contracted at the appropriate FPC Ceiling over the term. (EXAMPLE: For argument’s sake, we are about 60 days out from the start of the 2012/13 season with the current contract structure in place. The Anaheim Ducks determine they are declaring Ryan Getzlaf their FPC I. He is currently 25 years old, and they want to lengthen his term out to age 32 at the most financially beneficial number for which the club can sign him. They get his signature on a contract with some home town discount of ELC + $50K in his 31- and 32-year-old seasons in exchange for three, FPC I Maximum years in mid-contract. He signs for the following with an AAV of $6.061M:


This is a Cap Hit-friendly AAV that is not a circumvention of the intent of AAVs due to the closing of the loophole. It also does not preclude the Ducks from padding Getzlaf’s last two years with up to $3.672M per season in bonuses which count against the team’s Cap Ceiling, but not against the AAV. Or it could just as easily be counter-balanced by a contract Getzlaf could receive at age 33 and 34 where he could get paid a maximum of $5.925M and $5.95M – plus up to $2.019M in bonuses per year – with a more-true AAV of $5.9375M on a shorter NFC.)

There are 47 players whose current salaries fall under an FPC I, II or III designation. Minus the seven teams with no such players, the average for other organizations is only 2.04 (of three possible) players. If the CBA were going into effect for this season, only DET, NYR and SJS have four players under contract who meet an FPC monetary designation and are therefore facing an issue requiring adjustment. While adjustments are bothersome, they provide Management a measure of flexibility. (EXAMPLE: Again, if this was 2012… The New York Rangers are a team in FPC trouble. Gaborik has an FPC I salary, and Drury, Lundqvist and Redden all have FPC II-size salaries. After contracts have been re-worked, the Rangers award Gaborik the FPC I and Lundqvist the FPC II. Drury, already 32 years old, re-negotiates an NFC contract for the maximum allowed. But the Rangers, who have not gotten value for their money the last few years, want to make a change with Wade Redden. His AAV of $6.5M makes his salary in the FPC II range which has already been designated for Lundqvist. So in 2012-13, Redden plays for his previous $6.5M as a special, one-year NFC contract exception, and the Rangers do not renegotiate his contract by 15 July 2013, allowing him to gain UFA status.)

And teams also exist under current SPCs with FPC I, II or III issues based solely on the age of the player. (EXAMPLE: Buffalo would have two FPCs if the new CBA were currently in affect – Thomas Vanek is at least an FPC II at $7.142M over the next four years. But Ryan Miller at $6.25M over the next four years has two issues. Firstly, he also meets criteria for an FPC II designation, which Buffalo solves by awarding Vanek the FPC I designation and Miller the FPC II. But the goalie also will be 33-years-old in year four of his current SPC. He should not normally carry that high a contract after age 32. The Sabres, however, based on his continued, stellar performance between the pipes, seek permission for a special, one-year NFC contract exception in year four so Miller loses nothing he already contracted for. Upon completion of his current contract’s terms, he is a UFA.)

While standardizing monetization of contracts, the system as written here also allows Management flexibility to solve some Cap Hit issues in terms of renegotiating players contracts. That may be an issue with the NHLPA (although we should remember all contracts were re-written after the 2004-5 Lockout and this proposal is not callig for something that radical)…

The Players

This CBA maintains a Salary Cap, the very presence of which some members of the NHLPA will be against. If they are, however, it must be under the assumption that the League has unlimited resources, which is not the case. But two things should come to mind in a player's favor.

Firstly, unless you are an FPC I, II or III, your salary will never decrease over the length of the contract from your Year 1 salary. If you are in the vast majority of players not awarded an FPC contract, you can also look forward to a raise every one, two or three years when you renegotiate.

And second, a desire for transparency in League profits will be provided through calculation of the FYA that is shared with the NHLPA annually.

Having only three FPCs per team can look and feel like a Cap within a Cap. But if you were trying to apply this CBA to today’s salary structures, the fact remains that only three teams currently have more than three players that meet an FPC designation.

Several others, however, have the issue of too many players meeting FPC I or II designations. They include: BUF (Vanek, Miller); CGY (Iginla, Bouwmeester); CHI (Kane, Toews, Campbell); DET (Zetterberg, Lidstrom); NYR (Drury, Lundqvist, Redden); PHI (Briere, Timonen); PIT (Malkin, Crosby); SJS (Thornton, Marleau, Boyle); and VAN (the Sedins). Some of these issues can be solved by either designating one player the team’s FPC I (EX: the Sedins) or allowing a short term contract to expire into free agency (EX: Thornton). But others require more drastic measures, such as the Wade Redden issue mentioned above.

And another healthy number of teams have term issues per the structure of the new CBA above: CBJ (Nash turns 32 at year 7); DET (Datsyuk turns 32 at year 1, and Zetterberg turns 32 at year 4); MIN (Koivu turns 32 at year 5, and Backstrom turns 32 at year 2); MTL (Gomez turns 32 at year 5); NJD (Elias is currently age 34 so should have an NFC); NYR (Redden is already 33 so should have an NFC); PHI (Briere and Timonen are already over 32 so should have NFC’s); TBL (Lecavalier turns 32 at year 3); VAN (the Sedins turn 32 at year 4); and WSH (Ovechkin turns 32 at year 10). By the terms of the CBA spelled out, all of these players could receive a one-year, non-FPC extension after age 32 and then become a UFA.

As a whole, we have 28 players with contract issues if all of the proposed CBA went into effect today. (In the 2012-13 season, there would still be 25.) But this 2.6% of the league represents the highest paid portion and stands as both motivation for all players and an actual, upwards draw on salary floors. So if I am in the NHLPA, I might ask for a one-time CBA exception to designate up to two players per team who would otherwise be an FPC but who will not count against the three-FPC designations in order to make sure management must live with the contractual decisions already made. The NHLPA would likely have support along those lines from such teams as CHI, DET, NYR, PIT, SJS, VAN and WSH. But because compromise requires something from everybody in return, Management/The League may well allow the decision on those two players, but require the total salary value not to bust the Cap, and for all players after those two to fall under the boundaries of new CBA, requiring renegotiation of every other, non-FPC contract to no more than one, two or three years in length as appropriate.

Also in the players’ favor is the fact that UFA status comes quicker for between 84% and 97% of players. And players would be able to negotiate for up to 34% of their highest salary in the contract period as bonuses to be paid by the club at a Cap, but not AAV, hit.

How Would This Affect An Entire Team?

In order to illustrate how these changes would affect an entire organization, I overlaid the new CBA's structure onto the Toronto Maple Leafs' current salaries to illustrate restructuring issues this recommended CBA causes. Here is how they look:


By the size of their contracts, Phaneuf and Giguere would be designated as FCPs. Here I designated them the lowest FCP level I could in order to maintain flexibility to sign a top line forward to an FCP I contract if so desired.

In bold red font you can see there is a problem for the terms of Kessel, Komisarek, Armstrong and Orr. Since no player would be eligible for an FCP exception, they can be awarded one, additional year at current contract terms and then become UFAs. The one year exception would completely cover Armstrong and Orr’s current SPC but still fall short on the other two by one season. The Maple Leafs also could not seek an exception to allow those players' contracts to remain on the books for the time indicated because neither player has an FCP.

Also in red is Mike Brown’s salary. He is signed for the next season at $537.5K, but the LMC requires he receive no less than $700K.

Tyler Bozak and Luke Schenn’s SPCs call for close to or at the maximum you can currently get on an ELC with all bonuses. These exceed the new CBA’s requirements. Both players can be awarded a maximum ELC of $950K. If they are also given the maximum bonuses possible, then they can receive an additional $323K per ELC year. This chart shows their ELC only and their $323K bonuses in the “Carry Over Bonus Penalty” column as it counts against the total Cap Hit but not the Player’s AAV.

In both the Cap Over/Under Pre- and Post-Training Camp cases, the new structure for the upcoming year would have the Maple Leafs under the Cap Ceiling by $2.163M. The team under the current CBA has $2.026M in Cap Space.

Summary

In overall affect, the proposed CBA maintained the Cap and solved the Loophole issue while still providing flexibility for Management/The League and Players alike. And it did so with relatively little difference in final dollar impact to the Cap Hit. It is, as a solid compromise would require when something is not ‘broke,’ an evolutionary change instead of a revolution.

Weigh in. Give your opinions about a new CBA. Let's hear your voice before we are up against a deadline with no resolution and another Lockout loms. There does not need to be one with a little compromise and adjustment.

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The Next CBA: Part I – The Colonel

In 1977, American businessman Bert Lance said “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” That statement is right on the money when it comes to the next NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) – there are many components of the current CBA that can work just as well in the future as they do now if left as is.

One thing that apparently will not be left untouched is the way in which players are compensated, the Ilya Kovalchuk 17-year contract serving as a case in point. The NHL seems to be set on closing the loophole in the current CBA that allows what they consider circumvention of the salary cap.

I agree with that sentiment. Sew up that loophole tightly, I say. But do it with the least amount of change possible.

A look at the current CBA shows the layman more than an inch thick sheaf of legalese that contorts and confuses the non-legal mind. I offer instead what I hope is a more clear-language construction of how to change compensation that requires the least measure of compromise on the part of all parties. For Part I of this two-part blog, I begin with what could be a new section in the future CBA explaining how contracts under the new agreement can be put together. Once the verbiage of change is set in Part I, I begin Part II by further explaining its impact on Management/The League and Players. And I finish by overlaying the impact of change on top of a team’s current salary breakdown to show how a team would have to alter their contracts to meet the new CBA’s recommended changes.

A New Contract Construction

The point of contention revolves around the circumvention of the CBA’s intent when trying to lower the Average Annual Value (AAV) of a contract. It has become fashionable to lengthen a term with low dollars in the final years and, lately, beyond what many consider reasonable playing years in order to lessen the Cap Hit.
Here is how I recommend attacking this issue:

1. Maintain a Salary Cap in order to retain the competitive nature of teams that is a driving factor in the resurgence of NHL popularity.

a. The Cap would be set in 2012-13 at $60M U.S.

b. From 24 hours after the final Stanley Cup game of a post-season is concluded until 48 hours before the first game of the next Regular Season is played, teams may carry a payroll up to 10% above the Cap Ceiling.

c. The Cap Ceiling can only grow by $250K U.S. each year, but will be reviewed every five years for a potential Five-Year Adjustment (FYA). This provides a base Cap growth of 1.67% over the five year period.

i. FYAs are based on the average annual growth in overall hockey receipts for tickets, merchandise and media monies from all NHL organizations.

ii. At the FYA mark, the total Cap Hit will be adjusted upward or downward based on the difference between the base standard of 1.67% and the annual percentage increase of hockey receipts in the FYA. In no case can it be raised more than 10% from the final year in the FYA period, less than the initial standard of 1.67%, and it is always rounded off to the highest $1M. (EXAMPLE: The FYAs from 2012-13 through 2016-17 are 5%, 3%, 2.6%, 4.4% and 5% above each previous years’ receipts respectively. The total is therefore 20%, or an annual average of 5% over that time. The FYA is then: 5% - 1.67% = 3.33%. So a Cap beginning in 2012-13 at $60M and ending at $61M in 2016-17, would be increased by 3.33% in 2017-18 to $62M U.S. for 2017-18 and then continuing with an annual raise of $250K to the Cap each season until the 2022-23 FYA.)

d. Players’ salaries as stated under the terms of a valid contract will not adjust if the Cap Ceiling shrinks or expands following an FYA until they negotiate their next contract.

e. A Cap Floor will be maintained that is equal to the current standard of $16M below the Ceiling.

2. Player Contracts recognize the skill of the player, support a healthy Restricted and Unrestricted Free Agent (RFA and UFA) climate, and give all parties a measure of salary predictability to aid in planning payroll budgets. This CBA provides for six types of contracts:

a. The Franchise Player Contract I (FPC I).

i. No later than 12:00 noon Eastern Time on the day before the regular season opens, each team may designate to NHL offices one FPC I player for their team (unless previously designated and contracted).

ii. The FPC I can be signed after the expiration of any Entry Level contract and for any term up to and including the season in which he turns 32 years old per the mutual consent of the team and player.

iii. While under contract, the FPC I is an RFA. A No Trade Clause (NTC) notwithstanding, his trade or transfer to another team due to an unmatched Offer Sheet requires compensation from any gaining team:

(1) Through age 30 at the time of trade/transfer, the losing team receives the next two Entry Draft first round selections the gaining team owns. If the gaining team has two first round selections in one draft, they may choose to award both draft choices that season. In every case, any draft position owed is filled by the highest, available pick in the appropriate round.

(2) From age 31 to 32, the losing team receives the next first round selection in the next Entry Draft.

(3) Any team can produce an Offer Sheet for an FCP at any time. If the owning team does not match the Offer Sheet, the team providing it secures the player as the 'gaining team.' The Gaining Team pays two penalties in successfully procuring a player via an Offer Sheet:

(a) Provide the losing team the next three Entry Draft first round selections the team owns if the player is up to 30 years old , or the next two Entry Draft first round selections the team owns if the player is 31 - 32 years old at the time the Offer Sheet is tendered.

(b) In the next full season, the gaining team must pay the player the appropriate FCP Ceiling salary for that particular year.

iv. An FPC I player under a currently valid Standard players Contract (SPC) can retain all present commitments with the following exceptions:

(1) His maximum salary in any given year cannot surpass the current FPC I Ceiling set at 18% of the Salary Cap Ceiling at the time the contract is awarded.

(2) His minimum salary cannot fall below the current Entry Level Contract (ELC) Ceiling when signed plus one season at the FPC I Ceiling during the course of the contract.

(3) If his current SPC salary meets the FPC I standard, he must be designated by the club as such. If two players meet the requirements for an FPC I level, the player not designated by the team as the FPC I will retain his current contract with the appropriate AAV Cap hit for the first season of the new CBA (the 2012-13). After that season, he can either renegotiate a contract with his current team for an acceptable award by 15 July or become a UFA.

v. No player can have an FPC-designated contract following the season in which they reach age 32.

b. An FPC II is similar to an FPC I in all respects with the following, two exceptions:

i. Salary:

(1) His maximum salary in any given year cannot surpass the current FPC II Ceiling (set at 12% of the Salary Cap Ceiling) at the time the contract is awarded.

(2) His minimum salary cannot fall below the current ELC Ceiling for all but one season plus any one season at the FPC II Ceiling over the course of the contract.

ii. RFA Compensation:

(1) Through age 30 at the time of trade/transfer, the losing team receives one first round selection in the next, scheduled Entry Draft and one second round selection in the following, consecutive Entry Draft.

(2) From age 31 to 32, the losing team receives one second round selection in the next Entry Draft.

c. An FPC III is similar to an FPC I and II in all respects with the following, two exceptions:

i. Salary:

(1) His maximum salary in any given year cannot surpass the current FPC III Ceiling (set at 10% of the Salary Cap Ceiling) at the time the contract is awarded.

(2) His minimum salary cannot fall below the current ELC Ceiling for all but one season plus any one season at the FPC III Ceiling over the course of the contract.

ii. RFA Compensation:

(1) Through age 30 at the time of trade/transfer, the losing team receives one first round selection in the next, scheduled Entry Draft.

(2) From age 31 to age 32, the losing team receives one second round selection in the next Entry Draft.

d. A Non-FPC Contract (NFC) is for any player not designated to an FPC, a League Minimum Contract (LMC) or an Entry Level Contract (ELC). An NFC has the following stipulations:

i. If in any season the player is under age 32, an NFC cannot be awarded for greater than three years or less than two years, after which time he becomes a UFA.

ii. Up to age 32, a player can be awarded a one year to three year NFC, after which he becomes a UFA.

iii. From age 33 through retirement, a player can only be awarded a one year NFC, after which he becomes a UFA.

iv. Any NFC cannot be greater than $250,000 below the FPC III maximum salary. It also cannot be less than $250,000 below the ELC maximum salary on the year in which the contract was signed, or for a lesser amount in each year following Year 1.

v. If signed to an NFC, the player is an RFA for the entire length of his contract with compensation based on the best value a losing team can secure, but in no case less than a fourth round selection in the next Entry Draft.

e. A League Minimum Contract (LMC) is the least compensation a player can receive.

i. At no time does it drop below the starting point of $700K U.S. in 2012-13 (unless an approved two-way contract while playing in the AHL).

ii. LMC value is increased each year over the length of the contract by no less than $25K U.S.

iii. A player signed to a LMC cannot be traded without the consent of the player until he has played out in the final year of the contract.

f. An Entry Level Contract (ELC) is awarded to players signing with an NHL club for the first time. Restrictions for ELC’s are:

i. No ELC may increase from the base contract maximum by more than $25,000 per year each year beginning with the 2013-14 season. It also cannot be for a lesser amount in any subsequent year than the amount awarded in Year 1 of the contract.

ii. Can be for no more than three contract years if the player plays in a season from age 18 through 21.

iii. Can be for no more than two contract years if the player plays in a season from age 22 through 23.

iv. Can be for no more than one contract year if the player plays in a season from age 24 and beyond.

v. Following the expiration of a player's Entry Level Contract:

(1) He is an RFA through midnight Eastern Time on 15 August with compensation to a losing team equal to the gaining team’s highest pick in the same round he was chosen in his Entry Draft.

(2) He is a UFA if not signed by his parent team by midnight Eastern Time on 15 August.

(3) If in the transition year his salary was greater than the ELC Maximum, his current salary will be reduced to the current ELC maximum for one year and then his ELC will expire per the same restrictions in 2.f.v.(1) and (2) above.

3. Bonuses paid are at the discretion of the team:

a. From the 2012-13 season onward, however, they cannot under any circumstance be greater than 34% of the player's maximum salary for any year under contract.

b. They count against the Cap at whatever rate they were awarded, but not against a player’s AAV.

c. Bonuses are charged to a Cap Hit for the season after they were paid out.

4. All current contract buy outs remain in effect and as a Cap Hit for the team.

5. The NHL declares a contract valid to make it official and has up to 90 days for a further contract review period at the discretion of the NHL Commissioner.

So What Does This CBA Do Exactly?

To dissect this CBA in greater detail, below we will look at defining monetization of this CBA, what these recommendations do from the perspectives of Management/The League and Players, and give examples of how this reorganization would work if it was going into effect today.

Monetizing This CBA

The monetary restrictions of this CBA are best explained with the chart attached here:



All of the salary numbers flow from the Cap Ceiling. Numbers in red indicate they are merely projections because the FYA done at the end of the season prior may make them higher or lower. And remember: after an FYA adjustment up or down, each successive year the Cap Ceiling will grow by $250K until the next FYA occurs. (EXAMPLE: The Cap grows from a projected $61.25M in 2017/18 based on the 2016/17 end-of-season FYA to an actual $62M. In 2018/19, the Cap Ceiling is $62.25M, and so on.)

Tomorrow, I provide The Next CBA:Part II which begins with discussion of this recommended CBA’s impact on Management/The League and Players. And I close by overlaying the impact of this change on top of a team’s current salary breakdown to show how they would have to alter their contracts to meet the new CBA’s recommended changes…

The NHL Weekend Roadie: California Dreamin'

OGA’s second installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie highlights a road trip for the second weekend of the 2010-2011 season. For Opening Weekend, we suggested a very doable four games in three days on the East Coast. Our theme for Week Two is (drum roll please)…California Dreamin’.

Here’s the itinerary:

NHL Week Two (Friday, 15 OCT – Monday, 18 OCT)

Friday, 15 OCT: Vancouver @ Los Angeles – Though this will only be the Kings’ fourth game of the season, it’ll be their second against the Canucks. Vancouver eliminated Los Angeles in six games in the Conference Quarter-finals last April, so expect a physical game on Figueroa.

Saturday, 16 OCT: Detroit @ Phoenix – After two games in Prague to start the season, the Coyotes return to the desert for their home opener against the Hated Red Wings. Last spring, these two clubs went the distance in the Conference Quarter-finals, with Detroit coming out on top. Obviously, there’s no love lost here. From El Lay, Phoenix is just 370 miles east on I-10 – less than six hours by car. Easy drive.

Sunday, 17 OCT: Phoenix @ Anaheim – If you spend Saturday night in Phoenix (we recommend it), don’t plan to sleep in on Sunday, as the Coyotes and Ducks drop puck at 5:00pm local time. This will be the first meeting of the season for these Pacific Division rivals. Catch this game and save a little money by flying home on Monday.

There it is: three games, in three arenas, in three days. ‘Nucks, Ducks, Kings, Wings and Desert Dogs. Playoff and division rivals. Sand. Sun. Surf. Wearing t-shirts and shorts to hockey games. Beats the hell out of Edmonton in February, says I.

HOTEL – Again, we suggest Hotwire.com (if only they’d pay us for saying that!). One valuable tip regarding Hotwire: ONLY book rooms at hotels rated three stars and up. Don’t even get me started about the two-star dive in Harrisburg, PA, with bedbugs and a haunted shower.

FLIGHTS – As always, allow yourself a healthy time cushion if you’re flying in on game day, to account for possible flight delays. We recommend an early morning flight for a Friday night game, as that gives you plenty of time to get your rental car, have a good lunch, check into your hotel, and maybe grab a pre-game nap. The nice thing about flying to the West Coast is the time you gain along the way. The bad thing about flying home from the West Coast is the time you lose.

FOOD – Never been to Los Angeles or Phoenix and want something good you can’t get anywhere else, but don’t know where to go? Two good places to find what you seek are Roadfood.com and Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (yet another free advertisement, dammit). In particular, I have to say Guy Fieri (host of Triple-D) has good taste. I’ve eaten at a half-dozen establishments he’s raved about on his show, and every single one has lived up to the hype. You just can’t go wrong with one of his recommendations.

TICKETS – Single-game tickets for the Canucks @ Kings tilt go on sale 9 SEP. Tickets for Coyotes @ Ducks go on sale 28 AUG. As for tickets for the Hated Red Wings @ Coyotes, well…the ‘Yotes ain’t tellin’. Early September is a good guess, though.

GETTING AROUND – You’ll need to rent a car to get to Phoenix and back, so you might as well make it your primary transportation for the weekend. Traffic in Los Angeles is some of the worst in the U.S., so budget your time accordingly. I-10 between LA and Phoenix should be smooth sailing.

So that’s your second NHL Weekend Roadie: a Pacific Division trifecta. What are you waiting for? Book it, Dano.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Taking On Europe – The Colonel

I just read the blog “Paradigm shift – The NHL’s exodus from Europe” from HabsWatch. Well said, I say. Sitting at this year’s entry draft in Los Angeles, subliminally I noted most of the names called I could actually pronounce the first time around. I just didn’t put two-and-two together as well as ‘Paradigm shift…” did. The call that the NHL is losing out by its aversion to looking East rings true like incoming small arms fire.

So if it is locked in battle, in this case an ambush of diversion from Euro-talent, how does the NHL win? The best way to defeat an ambush is to attack.

To their credit, the NHL has gone from a tentative foot dipped in to test the waters on up to ankle-deep, Euro-wading. But if the NHL is THE premiere Hockey league in the world and it is in danger of slipping a gear, something bold must be undertaken.

I say next season it’s time to ‘Go Big, Or Go Home’ with the next step. So here are my recommendations – from East to West – for diving into the European (Premier) waters head first in 2011:

St. Petersburg (FRI, 7 OCT) and Moscow, Russia (SUN, 9 OCT). You simply cannot do this one if it’s not WSH and PIT for the Russian (and other, showcase) star power on these two teams that a Russian Fan can most identify with. Have this series include a pre-season game for each team against a KHL squad, to boot. This should gain the NHL a slew of new Russian fans while tipping their hat to the Russian-born player contribution.

Helsinki, Finland (FRI, 7 OCT and SAT, 8 OCT). For this match-up, I would throw the Fins DAL and MIN. That’s two teams who both have a history of recruiting players from that country and a natural, family rivalry based on franchise beginnings. An 8pm local start gives them a 12 noon start time back in the local markets, so MIN and TX can kick off the weekend early. (Columbus Day isn’t the only holiday in October if there’s Euro-Hockey Day, right?)

Stockholm, Sweden (FRI, 7 OCT and SAT, 8 OCT). With the plethora of Swede’s playing in the NHL, you have to give them a good tilt. I say the USA versus Canada and Original Six combination of TOR and DET gets lots of Swedes in the building for a great pairing. A royal event here in terms of franchise histories and national representation!

Prague, Czech Republic (FRI, 7 OCT and SAT, 8 OCT). This pairing, were it being done today, should be with CBJ and PHX due to the sheer numbers of Czechs on the two teams. A great way to salute Czech skaters in the NHL, it provides the dual effect of reaching Czech fans and potential, future NHLers. This also calls for at least two pre-season games in the Czech Republic to spread the NHL wealth around even more.

London, England (SAT, 8 OCT and SUN, 9 OCT). Have you seen the shenanigans at a British ‘football’ match? There are no two, better teams for this match-up than the NYR and PHI. Scoring, smashing and brawling are all likely to rock the O2 Arena. (Can I get tickets to this one now?)

Belfast, Ireland (THU, 6 OCT and FRI, 7 OCT). While they are going this year for a pre-season game, BOS has to return to their Irish roots for a game that counts. Who best to pair them up with than Original Six rival MTL? I ask you – a heated rivalry with fans that will be rooting for the Bruins? No offense, MTL, but even you have to like this idea. And of course, there will need to be another pre-season game for BOS against Irish Selects, but MTL can get an early game in there against them as well.

In space and time, the games could look like this:



Some (Great) Ramifications

There are several points to bring out with this recommendation:

1. The end of the 2010 pre-season:

a. Prime Hockey countries without regular season games here include Slovakia, Norway, Germany and Switzerland. Teams – other than CBJ and PHX in the Czech Republic – would need to schedule exhibition games in those countries with local, all-star, professional teams. With PIT and WSH potentially playing exhibitions against KHL teams, CBJ and PHX remaining in the Czech Republic, and MTL/BOS and NYR/PHI potentially playing in Ireland and England respectively, then DET, TOR, DAL and MIN should pick up those countries’ exhibition games.

b. PIT and WSH pre-season games against KHL teams better bring the “A” squad. From statements like, ‘…Kovy, WE will give you a 17-year contract and you can play for any team in our League you want to,’ these are likely to be a Summit Series effort from the KHLians and should be responded to in kind by the NHL.

2. This schedule puts 12 NHL teams out of country to begin the season:

a. All but one match-up has a day in between the games in order to build up the local media hype for the games.

b. DET and TOR would need the home and away, cross-Conference schedule to pair them up twice and no home crowd would see this match in person.

c. DAL and MIN and CBJ and PHX would lose 2/3 of their intra-Conference matchups.

d. All other teams would lose two games within their Division, leaving only two more in each home town for the remainder of the season.

e. You also would not likely see these traveling teams back on the schedule before Friday or Saturday of the next week. That being the case, I propose the rest of the teams’ seasons begin on Monday with two games played as (just about) regional, intra-Conference, home-and-away pairs prior to Friday, 14 OCT (BUF vs OTT; NJD vs NYI; CHI vs STL; CAR vs ATL; FLA vs TBL; NSH vs COL; EDM vs CGY; SJS vs VAN and LAK vs ANA). How’s a weeks’ worth of four-point games back in North America grab you after listening to the roar of European crowds for your favorite NHL teams? Are you thinking ‘So what?’ Wait ‘till you see how these pairs play out in the regular season this year.

3. Making these six tilts happen over multiple time zones simultaneously with the requirement for teams to travel back in from Europe and integrate back into North American time lets the NHL and their prime broadcast partners stretch their legs on Euro scheduling, travel, communications and broadcast transmissions and integration. Do this and on a micro scale you will know if you are up to the complexities of future expansion to Europe and a truly GHL.

4. And the 8pm local WSH/PIT and 7:30pm local NYR/PHI tilts? This is the Versus pairing for Friday and Sunday, with NYR/BOS squeezed in on Saturday. Wait – Saturday and Sunday in October? Up against College Football and the NFL? Hell yeah, I say. Why does Hockey only get to be the king on 1 January? It always only will be until it wins in battle.

So come on, NHL! Put on your battle rattle and gear up for an even bigger NHL Premiere in Europe in 2011. Lock and load and draw down on the KHL, and NCAA and NFL football. Then give us a bunch of home-and-away pairs of games with no distracting competitors in between to kick up the competitive tempo a notch. With some heart meds, beer and comfort food, we Fans can take it.

Kovalchukian Capology: A Different Take – The Colonel

Ohhhhh, we have all heard it! With more drama than the “OC,” we have been following the exploits, analysis and spiraling downturns of what I would now like to refer to as Kovalchukian Capology – “The K.C.” – throughout the summer and guess what? Game (is back) O-on!

That said, there is another way to sort through this stuff. Ever read a history of a great battle? If you are a true student of the battle, you have likely read several versions of the same thing and probably in different languages. That is because history (curiously enough, like Twitter) is all about perspective – four people staring at the exact same happenstance are most likely to describe it differently based on just how they see it.

In The K.C., there, too, are multiple, differing perspectives. You have the position of the NHL, the Team, the NHLPA/Players, and the Fans. In honor of German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, this blog attempts to provide a synthesis that keeps the NHL playing on the ice instead of inside the boardrooms come September 16, 2012.

The NHL

I’ve gotta say it – the NHL is not an evil, plotting empire, bent on the destruction of the game and the morale of its most important asset, the Players, and its second most important asset, the Fans. They have a vested interest in maintaining a viable product on the ice through multiple media outlets that showcases what we all want to see, the Players.

But like your Momma with a flailing flip-flop, they are not just going to sit idly by if something ain’t right. In their opinion, and in the case of The K.C., it is their parental responsibility to uphold the letter AND intent of the law. Why was the 17-year one a bad contract from the NHL’s perspective? Because the intent of the CBA to put a Cap in place in order to provide a means of leveling the playing field between teams was, in their opinion, violated. Kovalchuk will not play those six throw-away years because the sport will take its toll on his physical ability to do so before the contract runs out. So artificially lowering the annual total salary monies by averaging out that contract works for the benefit of the New Jersey Devils and is unfair for the rest of the teams not doing the same thing.

So out comes the flip-flop - WHACK.

The Team

Come on… The team just wants to do the best it can to put the best Players on the ice in the most economical terms that lead to winning the most difficult trophy to earn in sports. There’s language in the CBA and precedents that seemingly allow them to do just what New Jersey did. Can’t a fella – even if he’s a Devil – get a break?

Specifically for New Jersey, they want their Kovalchuk, and they want their Parise (and others), too. If you actually pay those two what they are worth in today’s, sometimes-skewed market, you could easily, tie up $20M true in any given year. But that’s more than 1/3 of the total payroll for the team, and you cannot ice a team with just two players and win games.

Can you blame them for risking flip-flop contact? I can’t.

The NHLPA/Players

Just as an aside, how does a PA with no head go into an arbitration hearing and be heard? That’s called, despite what you hear in some circles, mutual respect for the presence of the law (CBA) by all parties involved. Awesome…

The NHLPA and Players simply want the best deal they can get for their man for as high a price and as long as they can get it. That is because these are elite athletes (can YOU score like Wayne Gretzky?) with a short shelf life. That being their mission in life, they have no choice but to support their man and call for arbitration on a ruling which seems to not be on solid foundation per the letter of
the CBA.

To everyone’s credit, they are supporting the Arbitrator who ruled in favor of the flip-flop whack by patting The Big K on the shoulder and telling him he still has options and they will support him in any way possible as he seeks to get the best deal he can get.

The Fans

Don’t think we’re not nervous. Don’t think we aren’t worried this incident won’t blow up in September 2012 and we have no Hockey to watch for 2012-2013 (making the Mayans a couple month’s late, but nonetheless, correct by the way). What the Fans want out of this, in terms of the all-mighty Dollar, Euro, Rubles, Yen, etc. supports every other party involved.

Fans expect a meeting of the minds and men to figure it out and keep playing the game.

So Hegel Would Say…

…Come up with a synthesis. The NHL wants the letter of the law (CBA). Teams just want the best and most economical conglomeration of players they can get that may lead to a Cup. The PA and Players want the same Cup the Team wants AND to get the most compensation they can for the longest period they can do it. And we Fans just want the game, preferably in multiple technological forms and HD where available.

So what, as a synthesis, are we truly looking at here?

First you must find where the rub is. I’m not picking specifically on Kovy, but the other half of what the PA and Players want exists in direct contravention to what the Teams want. Both want the Cup. But ‘…most economical…’ and ‘…most compensation… for the longest period they can…’ go equally on the plate like spam and Filet Mignon. Both of these wants cannot coexist without compromise.

Well, to the Teams’ credit, 2/3 of them lose money each year to bring Fans what we want to see. And to the Players’ credit, many, talented ones we Fans would like to see are sitting on the sideline because the Cap is taking a bite out of Teams’ abilities to bring them on board.

The Catch 22 here is that Teams try to make their compromise through over-compensation early in free agency season in order to get the Player(s) they want. Nothing personal, but by example, Wade Redden? A total of $6.5M for .1867 points per game last year? That’s more than $450,000 per point. And while it is not all about points scored, THAT is still a mistake that overinflates the system and forces Kovalchukian Capology. I blame that on a Team, which hurts all other Teams when faced with multiple, contradictory ‘…most compensation… for the longest periods they can….’ (Rangers, you’re not alone in those types of contracts.)

And once they have overpaid for their man (or men), you have a Cap problem that needs resolving. Thus we have Kovalchukian Capology, actually born a few years prior.

But what can be done to avoid this clutter of confusion? We like things simple – bring us something that does not require Motrin just to hear about it. Please.

An answer is in two parts – the Now, and the Then.

The Now

Firstly, the Devils should be given credit for charging into the flip-flop, knowing full well the NHL was potentially deploying it because they had no choice at some point but to do so. Some would say this was not the Charge of The Light Brigade, but it’s impact is just as dramatic in Hockey terms in that it highlighted other, potential problems that require scrutiny. How do the NHL, the Teams and the PA/Players move forward so we, the Fans, keep providing the payout that turns the NHL wheel?

The CBA ‘is what it is’ right now. Sort’a. The arbitration ruling indicated a greater definition of what is a proper contract than the letter of the CBA provides. To not set up a very testy CBA discussion prior to September 2012, some compromising is in order that requires a lot of folks to do things of their own accord for the betterment of playing the game itself.

I offer that the NHL should not look into other, long-term contracts already on the books that are a bit questionable in terms of the Kovalchuk decision. I say that because there should, in the minds of the Fan, be a statute of limitations or the NHL as a corporation loses the moral high ground I think they are planted upon right now. They might disagree, but I think just like a parent watching their boys wrestle on the kitchen floor, they can only put up with it so long before they have to announce that enough is enough. In terms of The K.C., the NHL has now made that call, and going forward, the (Teams, PA and Players) boys should be on notice.

Teams? You need to police yourselves a bit better. I am a personal fan of the play of Clarke MacArthur. But if you cannot afford Who you are presented with in order to stay under the Cap without playing financial Twister, take your right hand off of blue, your left off of green, stand up, and walk away from the ‘…most compensation… for the longest periods they can…’ syndrome.

PA and Players - I know this goes a bit against the grain or your existence. The Players need to accept that the ‘…most compensation… for the longest periods they can…’ may be less than what they think it is. And when that is the case, the PA needs to continue to back their Players by simply ensuring they always have due process according to the rules as written.

…And Then

It is now approaching September 15, 2012 and the most contentious issue in the previous CBA is on the table – “The Loophole.” The NHL doesn’t want it because it violates the spirit of equal, Team opportunity. The Teams will exploit it if remains in the new agreement in order to provide the best product they can. And keeping it there is in the (PA and) Players’ best interests if they are going to maximize compensation.

Let’s give everyone a little slice of the answer.

For the NHL, let’s give a Cap Hit calculation that is easy to understand and cannot be circumvented in too damaging a way. And let’s still give Teams some wiggle room and Players the ability to maximize their opportunities to the greatest extent possible.

Start by keeping the Salary Cap so teams can remain relatively, evenly, financially viable.

In the first three years a Player is on the ice, including the first three years after college if they go that route, provide for a maximum Entry-Level Contract. This works to minimize the Cap Hit while speaking to the fact Players must earn their dues in the NHL and still be allowed to make a decent living.

After the entry level contract, provide a contract ceiling and floor that falls within the definition of the Cap. But be creative here. But all parties can pretty much agree if a player is 21 (right in) or 25 (after college) they can count on solid – maybe their best – play up to age 32. So the term for what I call a ‘Franchise Bridging Contract’ (FBC) should not surpass that age. For the length of that FBC, allow it to be for any amount per year that does not go above the ceiling or below the floor that the Player and Team will agree to. No matter how they structure it, give the Team the same Cap Hit calculation currently in the CBA to allow for potentially better economic management of the payroll with their FBC’s. If a Player signs an FBC, provide an RFA-like compensation package for trade purposes through their 29 year-old season, and a UFA-like, best-the-team-can-get-compensation package for any trade from age 30 – 32. Or if a team chooses not to provide a player an FBC, make all contracts (with standard ceiling and floor) two years in length up through age 29, three years in length for age 30 – 32, with a Cap Hit that is per the current CBA’s current, standard calculation, and with the same RFA-like and UFA-like compensation package based on age present in the FBC.

After age 32, make contracts no more than two year terms for anything between the floor and ceiling that the Team is willing to pay and the Player is willing to accept. Use the current Cap Hit calculation in the CBA. After every two year period, the player is a UFA again. Note here that the vast majority of the contracts written up will NOT be FBC’s and therefore will provide an easier to swallow, simple calculation against the Cap that meets corporate NHL’s intent of a more level (Team) sheet of ice.

For any contract except an FBC, give teams the ability to negotiate for it to be a contract that lets the team move a player up or down between Leagues as necessary.

Set a percentage of bonuses that go against the Cap Hit the following year (75%) and a percentage that is allowed to exist without penalty (25%). (What? Foul, you cry? I would argue this rewards a team for earning more money or having owners that would pay more money into the system to cover the 25%. The subsidy here is relatively small, but benefits the fans in those markets with a potentially, marginally better managed and playing team. This season, the average bonus pay out was a hair over $1.68M, so the 25% freebie against the next season’s Cap would be on average a bit over $420K. Sounds like a pittance, but when you’re right up against the Cap, it could be your savior.)

Naturally, if a Player is under contract and you trade for him, the terms of his contract move with him to your club. And if at any time a Player doesn’t like the terms when negotiating a new contract, then the PA can support his ability to walk away as a UFA and find a better contract elsewhere.

Summary

We currently have a dilemma.

I think if they walk away with the Kovy Decision in their pocket, the NHL retains the moral high ground of defending the intent of the law (CBA), with teams placed on further notice, and the good will of not ‘witch hunting’ as collateral come bargaining time. The message is not so much ‘Fear the Flip-Flop’ as it is to learn to play nice so as not to come into contact with the thing.

I think it is incumbent on Teams and Players to meet the intent of the current CBA as expressed in the Kovy Decision from this point forward until the new CBA is bargained for. But I also think Teams need to restrain themselves better when free agent season opens to avoid bloated contracts which cause these kinds of issues to occur.

For the future, I am a fan of exploitation of Players’ best years with a potential awarding of an FBC until their 32nd year and using the same Salary Cap arithmetic that is currently in the CBA to make contracts more economically friendly. Instead of and/or thereafter, Teams can also negotiate the minimum two-year contracts which support stability for Players in terms of pay and locality, Teams in terms of Cap manageability, and the NHL in terms of oversight of the system as a whole.
Multiple forms of compromise to Kovalchukian Capology will have to occur in 2012 to keep the League up and running in order to retain Fans in the seats and paying for a host of technological delivery means and merchandise. With some compromise, as Journey sang, the “…wheel… keeps on turning….”

And that is the goal of the whole thing, right?

Right? Anyone?

The NHL Weekend Roadie: Newark State of Mind

Folks, I know it’s the first week in August. It’s hotter than fried hell across the southern half of the northern hemisphere. NHL training camps won’t open for another month. What does this mean? It means that it’s time for the first installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie – OGA’s recommended road trip o’ the week.

We’re kicking off this weekly series now because we recognize the need to plan ahead for these trips: flights must be arranged, hotel reservations made, game tickets purchased, rental cars…rented, etc. We’ll give you some tips for the above necessities, but the primary purpose of The NHL Weekend Roadie is to point you towards a potentially fantastic hockey-related road trip for every weekend of the regular season. For each roadie, we’ll do our best to stick to the following criteria:

1. Minimum of two games.

2. Only one round-trip plane ticket needed (in other words, no flights from one game to the next).

3. Maximum of five days on the road (weekend included), because people who can afford to take these trips have a finite number of vacation days.

With those rules in mind, let’s get on with it:

NHL Opening Weekend (Friday, 8 OCT – Monday, 11 OCT)

As the title of this post indicates, the theme for the inaugural NHL Weekend Roadie is (with apologies to Billy Joel) Newark State of Mind. Your itinerary is as follows:

Friday, 8 OCT: Dallas @ New Jersey – Season opener for both clubs. Surely, Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract fiasco will be resolved by then. Regardless, the first game for the post-Modano, post-Turco (and post-Lehtinen?) Stars should be interesting.

Saturday, 9 OCT: Dallas @ NY Islanders – Actually, with the easier travel back east, you have about four game options for Saturday, but this is the only one which will allow you to get back to your hotel before about 4:00am. Besides, Nassau Coliseum may be a dump, but it’s an historic dump which won’t be around forever. Also, A) the arena food is above average, and B) great seats are still available…and will be, even on game day.

Sunday, 10 OCT: Sightseeing in New York – No games today, so go get a pie at Lombardi’s. Make the pilgrimage to Ground Zero and St. Paul’s Chapel. Do. Not. Miss. The NHL Store. Cap your day with a pint (or three) of Smiling Pumpkin Ale at the Empire State Building’s Heartland Brewery. Get to bed early, because tomorrow’s a big day.

Monday, 11 OCT: The Daily Double!! – Monday is Columbus Day, which means you have a rare opportunity: Pittsburgh visits New Jersey in a matinee game (1:00pm) and Colorado is at Philadelphia in the evening (7:00pm). Thanks to Amtrak, you can watch two NHL games in person, in their entirety, in one glorious day! We OGA boys did the Daily Double two years ago, watching Buffalo hammer the Isles in the afternoon, then taking the train back to Penn Station and reaching our seats at Madison Square Garden just in time for the Devils-Rangers lovefest. ‘Twas an unforgettable day.

In addition to an awesome experience, you’ll gain instant Hardcore Hockey Fan Street Cred by catching four NHL games in three days, in three different arenas. Don't let this opportunity pass you by! Start making your reservations today. A few tips for your trip:

HOTEL – I recommend using Hotwire. As I type this, they have a 3.5-star hotel in the Newark airport area for a reasonable (compared to NYC) $89/night. Prices change quickly and often, so book at your own risk.

FLIGHTS – If you’re going to fly in on Friday, book an early morning flight – they should be cheaper than flights later in the day, plus you need to give yourself a healthy time cushion between your scheduled arrival time and game time. If you do the Daily Double, plan on flying home Tuesday morning.

GAME TICKETS – Individual game tickets aren’t on sale yet, so you’ll have to check the team websites for more info. If a game is sold out, check the TicketExchange on each team’s website for seats from season ticket holders.

GETTING AROUND – If you ever have the chance to drive around the greater New York City area, pass. Take public transportation. Check out the Amtrak, NJTransit, PATH, MTA and LIRR sites for schedules, pricing and maps.

There you have it: the first NHL Weekend Roadie. Got any favorite places to eat or drink in Newark? Post it in the Comments. Any important info I left out? Post it in the Comments. Got a better idea for an Opening Weekend roadie? You get the idea.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Coming Soon: The NHL Weekend Roadie

As our longtime followers know, we OGA boys like us some hockey road trips. In our two-plus years of existence, we’ve been to (and blogged/Tweeted from) these NHL arenas:

• Madison Square Garden
• Nassau Coliseum
• Verizon Center
• Mellon Arena
• Air Canada Centre
• Philips Arena
• Scottrade Center
• Nationwide Arena
• American Airlines Center

Heading into our third year of existence, we’ve decided to share the wealth (such as it is) with our readers. Starting in August, The NHL Weekend Roadie will be a regular feature. For each weekend during the season, we’ll put together a road trip we’d take if our wives and wallets would let us. We’re going to tell you which games to catch, where to eat, where to sleep, and maybe even offer some suggestions as to what to do when you’re not eating, sleeping, traveling between arenas, or watching hockey. The only decisions you’ll have to make will be which flight to book and how to justify the trip to your significant other…and hell, we might even have some suggestions for that, too (we’re very good at rationalizing).

So tune in next week for the first installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie, and get ready to hit the road. Remember: that light at the end of the tunnel isn’t a freight train; it’s the 2010-2011 NHL season. Plan accordingly.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Other Kovalchukian Toughts - The Colonel

You have been bombarded. The name 'Kovalchuck' or the shortened 'Kovy' have burned up more digits than you can shake a contract at. I know - you need an aspirin and something appropriate to wash it down.

But in no particular order, I would like to throw two more cents at some alternative Kovalchukian thoughts before I get over it and move on to other things:

1. NJD is going for it this season. They have some strong forwards. They believe they have a solid blueline. They have Marty AND Hedberg in net. AT least the second round of the playoffs is within their grasp...

2. Like him or not, Lou's contract is brilliant on several levels. First, he sets his LW position with room to extend Parise coming up. Second, the big hit is a few years down the road when potential NJD winning fills more seats at the Rock and therefore has more of a chance to pay for the big contract. Third, it is within the rules of the CBA as written (like it or not). Fourth, if for some reason he cannot extend Parise, he has his new #1 LW already in the fold. (Don't take this one lightly - this puts pressure both on Parise to perform and 'K to stay healthy and productive going into the $11M+ years.) And finally, Lou is not getting any younger, and neither is The K-man. It could be that both the problems with this in later contract years and the LWer's longevity solve this whole thing a couple of six - 10 years down the road.

3. How much does a player making that much money owe the team in terms of off-ice service to the fanbase/community? I say, as an average Joe out here, he owes a lot. An appearance once or twice a week is not too much to ask for the money in my book, especially if he is working with kid's programs. Like me or don't for that, I don't care - I am not alone on this thought by a long shot.

4. In next year's fantasy pool, do you take Kovalvechkin or Gagne in TBL? Sure I'm giving myself away, but I take Gagne first. He is on the last year of his contract so has a lot to play for. The Big K has to set aside ego to play #2 LW, learn a new coach's system, and if his frustration level is high, screw it, he has the big contract, right? I say you are going to get more effort, night in and night out, from Gagne.

And I cannot resist, although this has nothing to do with The K-ster. The only thing left to get a playoff run in is to sit Marty for 15 - 20 games during the regular season. Come on - let's learn from history. If you want to go long in the post-Lockout world, you are going to run your goalie for roughly 20 games past their regular season totals. Marty is only making it an average of nine games, and not looking at his best doing it, most likely because the 70+ games in front of the playoffs wore him out. Pride be damned, sit Marty for 15 - 20 WITH the addition of the re-newest Devil and you may have found yourself something past the first round.

Another blog-thought from On Goal Analysis,and our last words about the K person this summer...

A Few Summertime Hockey Thoughts

It's July in Texas (and in the rest of the world, come to think of it), which means the temperature today should be around 100, I've got 120 channels of NOTHING ON, and I'm thinking about hockey. It's not Hump Day, but here are my current Hockey Thoughts:

1. Ilya Kovalchuk. Special K still hasn't signed a contract, and I'm not losing any sleep over it. In fact, I refuse to lose any sleep over Kovy unless he signs with New Jersey (because I'm a Rangers fan, of course). After reading numerous blogs, Tweets and bathroom wall poems on the Kovalchuk saga, I've managed to piece together the following: First, he turns down a long-term, megamillions offer from Atlanta, which says, "It's not me, Atlanta, it's you." Now, Everyone's Favorite Defensively Disinterested Sniper appears to want the following: A) A long-term, megamillions contract, and B) To play for a perinneal Cup contender. Well, I want a winning lottery ticket AND a time machine, but the constraints of reality and the salary cap mean Ilya and I are both screwed. I suspect he'll sign with the Kings (eventually), for less money and time than he's currently seeking, while I will keep wasting money on lottery tickets...and he'll probably help the Kings win their first Stanley Cup.

2. The Southeast Division. In case you haven't noticed, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Florida have all decided to get serious about winning. All three have made significant front-office changes since the season ended, and on-ice changes have followed (to varying degrees). Of the three, post-Kovalchuk Atlanta is most intriguing. The Thrashers finished just five points out of a playoff spot in April, and have made significant acquisitions since, taking full advantage of the Blackhawks' cap woes. I expect Atlanta to start the season slowly, as new linemates develop chemistry and the entire team adjusts to new head coach Craig Ramsay's system. By late November, this team should be firing on all cylinders, and a playoff berth is a very real possibility.

3. Mike Modano. I live in the Dallas area. Unless they're playing the Rangers, the Stars are my team, and have been since they moved here from Minnesota. I think I can speak for most Stars fans when I say that the only thing worse than a post-Modano world is a post-Modano world in which Mighty Mo is now playing for The Hated Red Wings. Feel free to quote me on this:

Mike Modano in a Red Wings sweater is like George Washington wearing a swastika armband.
--Big Tex, July 2010

Seriously: Modano to The Hated Red Wings is wrong on every level. While I can understand the desire to keep playing, the fact is that another season isn't going to give Mo the near-perfect ending he had in both his home finale (1G, 1A, shootout-winning goal) and the season-ender back in Minnesota. Better to retire (perhaps) a year too soon than to play (perhaps) a year too long, I says.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, it's just about Mojito time, methinks. Until next time...

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Patterns in The 2010-2011 NHL Schedule and Your Road Trip – The Colonel

So with the new regular season NHL schedule out since before the Entry Draft, you have probably had a lot of time to look at it and try and determine what road trips you are looking forward to making in the coming season. Many of you will pick you trip based on your first favorite team playing the team you hate the most or love second best. Some of you might be on the road to reach those barns you have not visited yet. (Is there a better goal than to make it to all 30 arenas? Possibly not…) And others may be picking a road trip to follow your favorite team in your favorite part of the United States or Canada.

There are many ways to pick your favorite trip. We would like to point out two considerations.

One of the things the NHL has done for you is made road tripin’ more economical by shortening those road trips in the last, roughly third of the season. In every case, the majority of games played from about the last 20 – 30 games are played within conference.

Here’s how many games each Eastern Conference team plays closer to home toward season’s end:

ATL – 20 of 22 from 23 FEB to end of season

BOS – 17 of 20 from 1 MAR to end of season

BUF – 18 of 21 from 1 MAR to end of season

CAR – 17 of 20 from 1 MAR to end of season

FLA – 22 of 25 from 19 FEB to end of season

MTL – 18 of 21 from 24 FEB to end of season

NJD – 21 of 23 from 25 FEB to end of season

NYI – 21 of 23 from 21 FEB to end of season

NYR – 20 of 23 from 18 FEB to end of season

OTT – NO games after from 15 FEB to end of season (last 26)

PHI – 21 of 23 from 22 FEB to end of season

PIT – 18 of 20 from 25 FEB to end of season

TBL – 19 of 22 from 25 FEB to end of season

TOR – 32 of 36 from 22 JAN to end of season

WSH – 18 of 23 from 20 FEB to end of season

And here is what you look like out West:

ANA – 23 of 24 from 18 FEB to end of season

CGY – 20 of 22 from 20 FEB to end of season

CHI – 17 of 23 from 21 FEB to end of season

COL – 22 of 23 from 19 FEB to end of season

CBJ – 24 of 29 from 9 FEB to end of season

DAL – 21 of 22 from 22 FEB to end of season

DET – 16 of 20 from 28 FEB to end of season

EDM – 16 of 19 from 1 MAR to end of season

LAK – NO games after from 23 FEB to end of season (last 23)

MIN – 13 of 16 from 8 MAR to end of season

NSH – 26 of 30 from 5 FEB to end of season

PHX – 18 of 20 from 25 FEB to end of season

SJS – NO games after from 25 FEB to end of season (last 20)

STL – 22 of 25 from 19 FEB to end of season

VAN – 18 of 20 from 26 FEB to end of season

This breakdown should also tell you if you are looking to catch that one game teams play against the opposing conference’s teams, be prepared to go in the fall or early winter.

But here at On Goal Analysis, we also like to think out of the box. We like the extraordinary. So follow us on this one…

In its great wisdom, the NHL schedulers provided several back-to-back, home-and-away pairs of games for teams this season. It is not exactly what we have called for in other posts of closing (nay, deciding) the season with four sets of three game playoff-like series against Division rivals over the final five weeks of play. But it does produce many opportunities for not-forgotten battles to rage and re-rage over a very short period of time. Call it the “Little Ball of Hate” tour if we can borrow from Pat Verbeek, or our favorite, 'The Battle Of The Pairs'.

Mind you, I am looking at the schedules in the middle of the night after a long day at work, but here are the pairings I found for Eastern Conference teams from the perspective of the team in bold at left:

ATL: A four-in-a-row turn vs NJD 11 MAR; @ PHI 12 MAR; @ NJD 15 MAR; and vs PHI 17 MAR

BOS: PHX in CZE 9 – 10 OCT; WSH 19 – 21 OCT; CAR 17 – 18 JAN; and DET 11 & 13 FEB

BUF: NYI 21 & 23 JAN

CAR: MIN in FIN 7 – 8 OCT; FLA 5 – 6 NOV; BOS 17 – 18 JAN; and TBL 25 – 26 MAR

FLA: CAR 5 – 6 NOV

MTL: NYI 27 & 29 OCT

NJD: PHI 6 & 8 JAN and TBL 9 & 14 JAN

NYI: MTL 27 & 29 OCT; NYR 2 – 3 DEC; BUF 21 & 23 JAN and WSH 26 FEB & 1 MAR

NYR: NYI 2 – 3 DEC and OTT 5 – 9 DEC

OTT: None

PHI: NJD 6 & 8 JAN

PIT: @ TOR 26 FEB & 2 MAR

TBL: CAR 25 – 26 MAR

TOR: vs PIT 26 FEB & 2 MAR

WSH: BOS 19 & 21 OCT; FLA 8 & 11 JAN; NYI 26 FEB & 1 MAR; and FLA 6 – 9 APR

As you can see, ATL doesn’t have any back-to-back pairs, but they do have an interesting, four game home and away chain versus NJD and PHI.

And while OTT does not have any of these pairings, have a look at the Western Conference teams where the potential for the ‘get-even’ factor will be higher:

ANA: LAK 8 – 9 APR

CGY: MIN 18 & 20 DEC and STL 27 FEB & 1 MAR

CHI: COL 13 & 15 DEC; NSH 15 – 16 JAN; and DET 8 & 10 APR

COL: CHI 13 & 15 DEC and DAL 7 – 8 APR

CBJ: SJS in SWE 8 – 9 OCT; DET 26 & 28 NOV; DET 14 – 15 JAN; and STL 7 & 9 MAR

DAL: ANA 12 & 16 NOV; STL 26 – 27 NOV; SJS 13 & 16 DEC; and COL 7 – 8 APR

DET: CBJ 26 & 28 NOV; CBJ 14 – 15 JAN; BOS 11 & 13 FEB; and CHI 8 & 10 APR

EDM: VAN 2 & 5 APR

LAK: PHX 20 & 22 JAN; ANA 8 – 9 APR

MIN: CAR in FIN 7 – 8 OCT; CGY 18 & 20 DEC; STL 11 – 12 FEB; and STL 26 & 29 MAR

NSH: CHI 15 – 16 JAN

PHX: BOS in CZE 9 – 10 OCT; LAK 20 & 22 JAN; and SJS 8 – 9 APR

SJS: CBJ in SWE 8 – 9 OCT and PHX 8 – 9 APR

STL: CHI 18 & 22 OCT; DAL 26 – 27 NOV; MIN 11 – 12 FEB; CGY 27 FEB & 1 MAR; CBJ 7 & 9 MAR; and MIN 26 & 29 MAR

VAN: EDM 2 & 5 APR

So maybe you cannot get to the European matches. That’s OK. Try any one of the 11 intra-divisional match-ups in the West. Or go see CHI and COL because of the youth and speed movement on both teams. Or catch STL, the grand champion awardee of the Battle of The Pairs this season with six pairs of back-to-backs, home-and-aways. Or, or, or…

While we still advocate scheduling things to end the season with four of the final, five weeks as intra-divisional, three-game mini-series, there is still lots of opportunity to either travel within your own part of the country from mid- to late-February onward or catch one or more of the 67 Battles of ‘The Pairs.’
Which way are you headed this season?

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