- An average of well over 20 minutes of ice time per game, to include duty on both the Power Play and Penalty Kill
- At least every other game, a point scored. Every 6.3 games, that point is a goal and a couple of those gaols will be game winners
- A senior mentor to this squad's defensive corps who has raised The Cup
The Thrashers finished the last three years with an average rating of -2.67 below the PQC. Of note from 2007/8, the Thrashers’:
- Were eliminated against the PQC on the second earliest date (25 OCTOBER) for any team since the Lockout.
- Between the 10th and 20th games, their 0-6 season start gave way to an 8-2 record, fueling thoughts of a team on track toward a playoff berth.
- Hope melted by 31 DECEMBER, however, when team play saw Atlanta in a perpetual negative spin for the rest of the season.
The Thrashers’ first 10 games of the season are played 10 – 30 OCTOBER. Our broad analysis (displayed above) indicates that in that time frame, Atlanta earns an average PQC rating of 4.3 and about 9 points in the NHL standings. More telling, however, is the fact that at least an indicator of IN or OUT of the playoffs has occurred every season since the Lockout by Game 10! Just remember to temper your early excitement or frustration with continued ‘birding’ on into NOVEMBER because the Thrashers’ tend to swoop back in the opposite direction over the following 10 contests.
Some key statistics to keep in mind through OCTOBER are:
- The Thrashers lose 72.3% of games in the 12 – 20 OCTOBER timeframe.
- Atlanta loses 63.3% of the time in the second of back-to-back games and have two pair of them in the first 10 games.
- They win 70.6% on Mondays and lose 65.9% on Thursdays.
- The Thrashers play an average of 2 – 3 ‘Bonus Hockey’ games (overtime or shootouts) and win 58.2% of them
OGA in-depth analysis will provide your Atlanta Thrashers’ Game 10 Report, forwarding it to season subscribers by 2pm CST on 31 OCTOBER and making it available for order from the On Goal Analysis web site by 2pm CST on 1 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)
Is Atlanta going to have another 2007/8 season, or will they quickly be relegated to a six-and-a-half month intensive hunt for the perfect driver or putter? History says there will be at least a warning of either IN or OUT in OCTOBER. OGA will be there for the call, and you can be there with us.
More to follow. Until tomorrow and the Buffalo Sabres’ Season Preview Report (SPR), this is The Colonel signing off…
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