The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS SPR by Frozen Pill

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com
3 October 2008

So all the King’s horses and all the King’s men couldn’t put Humpty back together again. Or so the tale goes in TORONTO. Thus, TORONTO embraces the re-build of their team. What other choice do they have? There are cap limits, players who won’t commit, players who won’t allow themselves to be traded and fans who lose sleep seeing their historic hallmark mired in the bottoms of the league they helped build. The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS have missed the playoffs for all three seasons since the lockout. The last time the LEAFS missed the playoffs for three consecutive years was 1926-1928. Danger, Will Robinson. Danger.

But this city wants back in. These fans need it and despite the mass of criticism towards the management (and even government involvement!) there are still men on this team who have given their lives to the idea of one day playing with the world’s elite in the NHL. It minimizes these player’s hard work and desire to not believe these men want more - or are capable of more.

For now, TORONTO swims at the bottom of their pond but they will surface for air. It’s been too long. And since they will be forced to succeed with youth and players who must still prove they belong at the NHL level (never mind the fact they play in the city with the Hockey Hall of Fame), the LEAFS must play with the team they have. So pay attention while the young players turn this club around. You’ll want to say you were there with them all the while, even through the dark days. It may not be this year they re-enter the Cup Quest, but this is the year it begins.

One major distraction persists, though. Mats Sundin won’t commit to return and won’t commit to another team and won’t commit to retiring. We’ll get to that later in the report.

As stated yesterday, this SPR is to be a more optimistic view to the most discussed NHL team and their current woes. But we see the hope of a new day, a new season and a new beginning. It takes a TEAM to compete and qualify for Lord Stanley’s Cup Playoffs. So here in the OGA Season Preview Report we’ll evaluate the team’s performance against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) in the second half of this blog and discuss how the modern LEAFS turn this season and give OGA all kinds of trouble… and fun.

During the course of the 2007/8 NHL Season:

• The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS finished -5.0 against the PQC

• The LEAFS’ finished (you may forget) in middle of the NHL (15th) on Power Play percentage (17.78%)

• The LEAFS’ finished a not-surprising 29th in the league on Penalty Kill percentage (78.13%)

• Demonstrating a serious need for effective offense, the team finished 24th (total points) in the league, but 5th in shots-per-game (31.00)

• The LEAFS’ have not advanced to the Stanley Cup playoffs in the New NHL since the lockout.

In the previous season, OGA was not able to call the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS OUT of post-season play until the end of their 50th game (23 JANUARY 2007). In the two seasons previous to last, OGA had called the LEAFS IN post-season play only to find our forecast incorrect as their play imploded like one of those light bulbs soon to be illegal in Canada. THE LEAFS fall into OGA’s “13% Club” (OGA calls are made with just over 87% accuracy) and this is one reason OGA is excited to evaluate their play. We look forward to the surprises TORONTO may deliver in this new season. So let’s evaluate their historical performance in the New NHL (post-lockout) against the PQC and how it is the LEAFS have proven to be so tricky.

(cont)…We continue our TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS Season Preview with hard stats compared to the OGA-developed Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and the team’s trends as measured against the PQC. And since this is the final SPR for the Frozen Pill until the first drop of the puck on the new 08-09 NHL season, we will end with some fun.

This team is all over the place but they consistently play below the Curve. Until this trend is reversed, the LEAFS will continue to bear the burden of increased scrutiny from all perspectives. But they, perhaps more than any other team, have tested our PQC analysis to its extreme. In the 07-08 NHL season, OGA was unable to make the call on whether this team was IN or OUT of the playoffs until the 50-game mark where they finished a dreadful -4.0 against the PQC.

In the season previous (06-07) we believed the LEAFS strong start had propelled them to qualifying play by the end of Game 20. A month and a half later (30 DECEMBER 2006), they managed to disqualify themselves from any chance of post-season play. In the 05-06 season, again we thought they were close to playoff qualification by the end of Game 20. By 2 JANUARY 2006 we evaluated their performance against the Curve and called them IN. The LEAFS then proceeded to lose 9 of the next 10 games, forcing OGA to reevaluate. Ten games later, after having lost another 7 out of 10, they had proved us incorrect and disqualified themselves from playoff contention by 4 MARCH 2006.

Thus, the ‘13% Club’ was born. OGA makes the call of IN or OUT as early as the end of OCTOBER each season. We have a formula and this work is not easy. Fortunately, TORONTO makes OGA work more diligently to perfect our PQC…and makes this fun. Surely, that’s how the fans see this trying time in LEAFS history. Fun.

The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS have averaged a PQC Rating of -2.5 the past three seasons.

Remember, it takes a team to win or lose and it is the team’s performance we evaluate on a strictly analytical basis. Any challenge to our methodology is welcome and rest assured, as fans of this game, we can relate to the pain. After viewing our graph below, you will see the LEAFS played a much more consistent game last season (compared to the two years previous) and we expect to see more of the same in the 2008/9 NHL season.

This season, the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS’ first 10 games of the season are played 9 OCTOBER – 29 OCTOBER. Our research indicates they earn a PQC rating of 5.3 during this time frame. The LEAFS will begin play in the 08-09 season with only 2 games of their first 15 against the Western Conference. Seeing their Eastern neighbors for 13 of the first 15 games this year should help the LEAFS with yet another traditionally strong start in play as measured against the PQC, regardless of what comes later.

Some statistics of note to manage your expectations in to late OCTOBER are:

• Post lockout, the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS’ record in the first 10-game segments is 12-10-8

• The LEAFS, over the past 3 season, have played in 13 of 30 games requiring OT or a shootout

• Two of the three LEAFS’ season openers have required OT or a shootout to determine a victor; one resulting in an OT loss, the other resulting in a shoot-out loss. They have lost all 3 season openers

• Over the previous three seasons, in OCTOBER, the LEAFS have 14 Wins where OT or a shootout was required for the victory

• The LEAFS have lost all 3 home season-openers since the lockout and in the first 10-game segments have lost 13 of 21 (61.90%) at home

• The team’s 3-year per-game averages: 3.03 GF and 3.25 GA

OGA will be measuring the LEAFS against their three-average PQC Rating of -2.5 in the first 10 games (as well as with all other NHL teams) in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS Game 10 Report. The G10R will be delivered to our subscription customers by 2PM Central on 30 OCTOBER and available for purchase online by 2PM Central, 31 OCTOBER. See the OGA store for more details HERE. You can also view a sample for our G10R HERE. (Make sure to view all 3 tabs!)

OGA KNOWS. You can, too.

OVER the previous three years (post-lockout), the LEAFS earn a PQC rating of -2.5. They have also earned honorable mention for the following statistics of note to On Goal Analysis:

• The TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS are 1 of 7 teams to miss post-season play in all three years since the lockout

• In back-to-back games, TORONTO has 18 Wins and 27 Losses during the previous three seasons showing a trend towards losing in b2b games (67%)

• On MONDAYS, the MAPLE LEAFS have Won 15 of 21 games (71.43%)

OGA will be measuring their team performance against the PQC online and via our Game Reports available for purchase. For your best value, see our subscription information HERE. In the meantime, stay tuned to The OGA Blog and check out the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS G10R for a thorough review of the team’s performance as measured against our proprietary PQC.

Now, we promised a little bit of fun to wrap up the Frozen Pill’s On Goal Analysis Season Preview Reports. Enjoy below and then be sure to read all three of today’s SPR releases and keep checking back with us at www.ongoalanalysis.com because OGA KNOWS. Now you can, too.

It’s only a puck until you take one in the teeth. Then, it’s a Frozen Pill...

The recently acquired secret photograph showing the LEAFS’ strategy for the 08-09 season

…And as promised, OGA will never leave you hanging. To conclude the matter previously discussed of the incredible legend that is Mats Sundin….

The VANCOUVER CANUCKS SPR by Big Tex

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com

3 October 2008

What a difference a year makes. In 06-07, the Canucks finished 1st in the Northwest Division and lost to Anaheim in the Conference Semifinals. In 07-08, Vancouver missed the playoffs. What happened, and what can be expected in 08-09?

In the three seasons since the Lockout, Vancouver has only qualified for postseason play once, in the 06-07 season. They have finished an average of +.5 against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). That average is somewhat misleading, however, as 06-07 was the only season in the last three in which the Canucks have finished above the PQC (+5.5).

Of note from last season:

· Vancouver was 7th in the NHL in Goals Against/Game (2.51), but 23rd in Goals For/Game (2.52)

· They tied Chicago for the best Win Percentage when leading after 2 periods (.931)

· The Canucks were 25th in the league in Win Percentage when allowing the first goal (.225)

· Just six players finished the season with 10+ goals

· Vancouver used eleven different defensemen in 07-08

The Canucks’ woes last season were rooted in their injury-plagued defensive corps. Chemistry is just as important among defensive pairs as it is with forward lines, and Vancouver had far too many injuries to d-men to allow that chemistry to develop. This forced an already-thin group of forwards to focus more on defense, which in turn led to fewer scoring chances and/or goals for the Canucks. “For want of a nail, a shoe was lost, for want of a shoe, a horse was lost…” So went last season for Vancouver.

In the offseason, the Canucks chose an interesting route to effect change, beginning with replacing GM Dave Nonis with Mike Gillis, who chose to retain Head Coach Alain Vigneault. Team captain (since 2000) Markus Naslund and Brendan Morrison were allowed to depart via free agency, and “Johnny Canuck”, himself – Trevor Linden – retired. To fill some of the holes up front, Pavol Demitra, Steve Bernier and Kyle Wellwood were brought in. Much more will be expected of Ryan Kesler, as well, if Vancouver is to have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth in 08-09.

The Canucks’ first ten games of the season are played 9 – 30 OCTOBER. Our research indicatesthat through the first ten games, Vancouver earns an average PQC rating of 6.0 and about 12 points in the NHL standings. In 07-08, Vancouver started slow and was -1 against the Curve at Game 10. The Canucks then surged above the PQC over Games 11 – 40, putting them on the bubble for a playoff berth. After Game 40, however, injury woes along the blueline began to impact team performance, and the Canucks slipped back down to the PQC for good. Interestingly, of the 27 teams for which OGA made a call prior to their mathematical clinch or elimination, Vancouver was the last team in the NHL to be called OUT by OGA in 07-08, on 1 APRIL.

Some statistics of note for OCTOBER:

• Post-Lockout, the Canucks are a combined 17-11-2 through the first ten games

• Vancouver opens at home against Calgary on 9 OCTOBER, then embarks upon a six-game road trip (18-18-5 on road last season)

• The Canucks’ record through the first ten games has fallen each year, from 8-1-1 in 05-06 to 5-4-1 in 06-07 and 4-6 in 07-08

OGA will be measuring the Canucks against their average PQC rating of 6.0, as well as against other NHL teams, in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with Vancouver’s Game 10 Report, due to season subscribers by 2PM CST on 31 OCTOBER, and available for order from ongoalanalysis.com by 2PM CST on 1 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

In perhaps the most interesting off-season move of all, the Canucks designated goalie Roberto Luongo team captain. While NHL rules forbid goalies to actually wear the “C”, it is indicative of Luongo’s status as both an on- and off-ice leader and the cornerstone of the franchise. Last season, Luongo strapped the team to his back and carried them to within three points of a playoff berth. In 08-09, with a healthy blueline corps and consistent secondary scoring, the superstar goalie shouldn’t have to do all the heavy lifting to get a rejuvenated Vancouver club into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Well, that concludes OGA’s Season Preview Reports. Tomorrow, the puck drops in Stockholm and Prague, and as Sherlock Holmes said, “The game is afoot!” Check out The OGA Blogs throughout the season for in-depth analysis of all 30 NHL teams, and don’t miss our G10R’s for each team. On average, OGA will call six teams IN or OUT of the playoffs by the end of OCTOBER, and you’ll hear it first in the G10R!

Until tomorrow, Big Tex says, “Try the sweet potato pie, and wash it down with the ice-cold beverage of your choice!”

TAKE ME BACK TO www.ongoalanalysis.com

The WASHINGTON CAPITALS SPR by The Colonel

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT

http://www.ongoalanalysis.com

on 2 October 2008

In blogging the Capitals, it is too difficult not to say it right up front: Washington has failed to make the playoffs twice in the three seasons since the Lockout. HOWEVER, they are famous at OGA for displaying the most prolific comeback against our Playoff Qualifying Curve (the PQC) during the 2007/8 season. Despite an overall average of –7.2 versus the PQC, last year the Caps finished with a +.5 – an average improvement of +11 against The Curve in each of the two previous seasons. This included a rebound from below The Curve for all but the final 12 games of the season that hit as low as –4 twice in 10-game periods. The new team chemistry found under Coach Boudreau, coupled with a return to the playoffs and a strong, team desire to get back on the ice this year, makes a prognosticator want to throw away all of his old oracles and start anew. But a strong, season-ending push that led to a playoff berth does not mean Capitals’ history must be chucked out with the trash. Instead, we must hold it up as a yard stick, measuring where the team is going to go this season.

In the past three seasons, OGA called Washington OUT of the playoffs every time by 1 JANUARY. In the 2007/8 season, that call came on 19 NOVEMBER when they slumped to a –3.5 versus the PQC. That call would not have been retracted until they clinched a playoff berth in their last game of the season, either. Here at OGA, we gloriously place the Caps in that 13% of all calls that made us eat crow because it represents the true ability of a team to earn the W and come back from adversity to secure a hard-fought playoff berth.

What did OGA see this past season and what is in store along the 2008/9 horizon?

The Capitals season-ending PQC average rating of –7.2 is misleading if we look at their capability to win this season. More specifically:

• Washington began the pre-Boudreau era with a 6 – 13 – 1 record. Bringing in Coach Boudreau and his influence to motivate this team could not have waited one game later as it took until the last game of the season’s victory to earn a playoff spot.
  
• Washington was a –3.5 below the PQC as the new regime took over, and the team never fell more than another –.5 lower during the course of the season.
  
• Displacing the long-time Cap favorite, Olaf Kolzig, team management surprised everyone and traded for Montreal netminder Cristobal Huet at the Trade Deadline. Huet backstopped the team to a 14 – 4 record beginning 29 FEBRUARY and then on through overtime in Game 7 of the first round of the 2008 playoffs.

The final season results found the Capitals as the Southeast Division Champions, locked in an overtime battle in the final first round game against Philadelphia. Although this accomplishment seemed unlikely when Coach Boudreau entered the picture, the end-of-season success left the team and fans wanting more and many analysts predicting great things.

The Capitals’ performance against the PQC over the last three years is summarized in the graph below. Washington traditionally starts right at, or below, the PQC in the first 10 games of the season. The Caps tend to have a mid-season peak near or above the PQC and experience one more slide in February before finishing the season strong. The indicators that the predictions for a much improved season are well-founded will be: beginning the season at or above the PQC in Games 1 – 10; spreading out those 14 wins in 18 games from the end of last year more evenly across the season; and sprinkling a few more Ws in there for good measure.

The Capitals’ first 10 games of the season are played 10 OCTOBER through 1 NOVEMBER. Our analysis indicates that in that time frame, Washington earns an average PQC rating of 4.3 which is below The Curve and good for around nine points in the NHL standings. They have won all three home openers and lost all three road openers over the last three seasons. Of note, the Capitals also play six of their opening 10 games on the road.

Some additional, critical statistics to keep in mind for the month of OCTOBER are:

• From 12 – 22 OCTOBER the Capitals lose 85.7% of games played. (This potentially affects four games.)

• On Thursdays and Fridays, Washington tends to lose 70.9% of their games played which has contributed negatively in their last three season outcomes. (This potentially affects another three games.)

• Washington tends to lose 64.8% in the second of back-to-back games. Look for them to play in the other 35.2% early on as the only time they have this scheduled is on 11 OCTOBER for their home opener against CHICAGO where all three Calder Trophy candidates will witness the raising of the Southeast Division Champion banner.

• And the Capitals play an average of 1.67 ‘Bonus Hockey’ games in OCTOBER. They tend to lose 63.6% of Shootouts, so look for them to bring the likes of Ovechkin, Semin, Nylander and Green multiple times in any Overtime period.

Despite the stats above, the Capitals will go on a full assault for the W column. More and more it seems the limits to purchasing talent because of the salary cap and the ability to keep players in the game versus nursing wounds from the press box is the key to playoff entry. So a healthy Caps’ roster throughout the season is one of the keys. Washington’s last line of defense will also have to keep the puck out of the net when such teams as Philadelphia and Montreal come a crashin.’

All of that said, it is difficult here at OGA to stay off of the bandwagon and not ask if, but when the Capitals will secure a playoff bid. During this season, OGA will carefully review team play against the trends and forward your Washington Capitals’ Game 10 Report to season subscribers by 2pm CST on 2 NOVEMBER and make it available for order from the On Goal Analysis web site by 2pm CST on 3 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

Will Washington begin the 2008/9 season like they played it last year? Can Washington get to 1 JANUARY above the PQC and then hold on for rest of the season? OGA will be there to make the call and you can, too.

Tomorrow begins the NHL’s 2008/9 Regular Season in PRAGUE and STOCKHOLM. You can see the games on one of several stations on SATURDAY, and then the Game 2 rematches SUNDAY on Versus.

That’s right – It’s time to lace up the skates, strap on the attitude, take that short walk down the tunnel and leap out onto the ice. Game on! Game on!

This weekend, I will be at the computer and TV to begin my G10Rs for OTTAWA and TAMPA BAY. So more to follow. For now, this is The Colonel signing off…

TAKE ME BACK TO OGA

The NEW YORK RANGERS SPR by Big Tex

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com

2 October 2008

07-08 was the third consecutive season in which the Rangers qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs, and the second consecutive season in which they were eliminated in the second round. General Manager Glen Sather signaled his desire to win the Stanley Cup by dismantling a good New York team, with the goal of assembling a great team. Will Sather’s efforts pay off in 08-09?

The Rangers are one of only nine teams to have secured a playoff berth in each of the last three seasons. In doing so, they have averaged +2 against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). In 05-06 and 07-08, New York was called IN the playoffs by OGA in mid-NOVEMBER, while in 06-07, the call came in early DECEMBER.

Some statistics of note from last season:

• Defense, from the goal line up, was key – the Rangers finished 4th in the NHL in Goals Against/Game (2.32), 3rd in Shots Allowed/Game (25.9) and had the 6th-ranked Penalty Kill (84.6%)
  

• Henrik Lundqvist led the NHL in shutouts, piling up 10 clean slates in 07-08
  

• Puck possession is a critical factor in team defense, and New York helped their cause greatly by winning 52.3% of faceoffs (T-2nd in NHL)
  

At the other end of the ice, the Rangers put far too many shots where the goalie was, rather than where he wasn’t – despite finishing 3rd in the league in Shots For/Game (31.5), New York had a stultifying Goals/Game average of 2.50 (25th in NHL), as well as the league’s 22nd-ranked Power Play (16.5%)

Given the Rangers’ offensive woes, Head Coach Tom Renney should be commended for getting the entire team to buy into his defensive system. Had Renney been unable to do that, 07-08 would’ve been disastrous for the Broadway Blueshirts. Instead, New York circled the wagons and rode one of the league’s hottest goalies into the 2nd round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. In the end, however, the Rangers’ inability to “put the biscuit in the basket” sealed the teams’ postseason fate.

One of the most significant issues faced by the Rangers last season was the lack of chemistry between team captain Jaromir Jagr and either Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. When your star winger can’t play with either of your top two centers, you’ve got a problem. GM Glen Sather’s first step towards rectifying the problem was declining to re-sign Jagr. With Jagr gone (and probably Brendan Shanahan, as well), the door is wide open for a top-flight sniper. If Coach Renney can motivate him to give 100% every night, Nikolai Zherdev could fit the bill. If not, New York will enter the 08-09 campaign without four of their top eight scorers from last seasons’ low-scoring squad, and with plenty of playmakers, but no finishers. Could it be time to “circle the wagons” again on Broadway?

The Rangers’ first ten games are played 4 – 24 OCTOBER. Our research indicates that in the first ten games, New York earns an average PQC rating of 4.67 and about 9 points in the NHL standings. Last season, the Rangers began the campaign on the wrong foot, going 3-6-1 through Game 10. In Games 11-20, New York rebounded in dramatic fashion, going 9-1 and putting together a six-game win streak in the process, which culminated with OGA calling the Blueshirts IN the playoffs on 17 NOVEMBER. Much has been said about the Rangers’ struggles last season without Sean Avery in the lineup, and this is evident in the above graph – Avery missed most of Games 21-46 with various injuries, but was healthy and in the lineup from Games 47-82.

Statistics of note for the first month of the season:

• Post-Lockout, the Rangers have a combined record of 12-14-4 in the first ten games

• They begin the season with two games in Prague, CZ, against the Tampa Bay Lightning

• After opening the season in Europe, New York will have four days to readjust before their home opener 10 OCTOBER against Chicago

• The Blueshirts are the only team in the NHL without a homestand of more than three games this season. One three-game homestand occurs 13 – 17 OCTOBER

OGA will be measuring the Rangers against their average PQC rating of 4.67, as well as against other NHL teams, in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with New York’s Game 10 Report, due to season subscribers by 2PM CST on 25 OCTOBER, and available for order from ongoalanalysis.com by 2PM CST on 26 OCTOBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

After all of Glen Sather’s summertime machinations, the areas of greatest concern for New York are, in order: Team Chemistry, Scoring, and Toughness/Physical Presence. OGA believes that the Rangers’ time spent in Europe will aid in the development of team chemistry, and the Blueshirts’ prolific scoring in the pre-season Victoria Cup tournament, while not against NHL-caliber teams, should certainly provide a much-needed confidence boost. Toughness remains an issue, but should be addressed by Aaron Voros (provided he can crack the lineup and play significant minutes). While the Rangers’ defense corps is top notch, fans would probably feel better with a Barry Beck-style thumper patrolling the blueline. Does Glen Sather have another trick up his sleeve, or is what you see in Prague on 4 OCTOBER what you’re going to get for 08-09? Time will tell, and so will OGA...Check out The OGA Blogs for updates, and the Rangers’ G10R on 25 OCTOBER for a comprehensive progress report.

One more day before GAME ON!, and one more report – check in Friday for the Vancouver Canucks SPR. Until then, Big Tex says, “Try the grilled alligator kabobs.”

TAKE ME BACK TO www.ongoalanalysis.com

The SAN JOSE SHARKS SPR by Frozen Pill

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com
2 October 2008

For the previous three seasons since the lockout (the New NHL), the SAN JOSE SHARKS have qualified for the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. For the third season in a row, they were sent packing back to northern California after being ousted in the second round. Many had concluded the SHARKS were the favorite to represent the Western Conference in the Finals…if they could get past Detroit. But the meeting of Red vs. Teal never occurred with Dallas beating the favored SHARKS in game 6 of the second round after a four-overtime duel.

This time though the SHARKS coach Ron Wilson barely had time to unpack his bags before it was determined a new coach was in order to surpass this second round curse. Enter Red Wings assistant, Todd McLellan. The Sharks, having acquired the coveted Brian Campbell at the trade deadline last season, watched as Campbell decided to sign a rest-of-his-playing-days type contract with Chicago. So SAN JOSE solidified the defensive corps with new additions, Dan Boyle, Rob Blake and Brad Lukowich – all of whom wear Stanley Cup rings. The intent here is obvious.

The SHARKS goalie, Evgeni Nabakov saw more action than any other net minder last season (77 games, 46 wins) and the team were 45-3-7 when tied or leading after two periods. By all standards this was a solid defensive performance for a team better known for their huge and potentially deadly offense. But several key players underperformed on offense and the SHARKS hope to return to normal form this season.

In the previous season, OGA was able to call the SAN JOSE SHARKS qualified for post-season play by the end of their 30th game (13 DECEMBER 2007). In the 06-07 season, OGA saw the team qualify by 15 NOVEMBER 2006. Certainly the SHARKS have a solid team ready to compete every night and as we measure the team effort as played against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). OGA expects another early qualification.

During the course of the 2007/8 NHL Season:

• The SAN JOSE SHARKS finished +8.0 against the PQC

• The SHARKS finished in the top 10 (10th) in the league on Power Play percentage (18.72%)

• The SHARKS finished a very impressive (surprising?) 1st in the league on Penalty Kill percentage (85.81%)

• Although the team’s defense and goalie posted impressive numbers, the SHARKS still finished second to last (29th) in saves but 3rd in the league in Goals Against (2.28)

• The SHARKS have advanced to the Stanley Cup playoffs each year since the lockout and were eliminated, each time, in the second round

This team has arguably strengthened an already sturdy defensive presence in front of the net and the offense stands to improve as players like Jonathan Cheechoo and Patrick Marleau hope to regain the scoring prowess they were lacking last season. The team’s point-leader, Joe Thornton (96 points), was followed by Milan Michalek in this department with 55. Obviously, SAN JOSE will seek to spread the offense out amongst their lines more evenly as they build their surge towards the playoffs with a deep bench. But first, they must play 82 games!

Against our OGA-developed Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), the SHARKS typically start strong on the season and play well against the Curve. For example, by the 20-game mark, they are playing at an average of +1.3 against the PQC. Most interesting are the consistent trends this team exhibits when their performance over the past three seasons is calculated against the PQC. Let’s examine together…

(cont)…In the previous three seasons, the SAN JOSE SHARKS have started strong and, with exception of the 05-06 season, have played above the OGA-developed Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). Amazingly, the SHARKS tend to follow the same of trend of play in each season since the lockout. Beginning the season, the team plays very close to the Curve and are either ABOVE or WITHIN the Curve by game 30. The SHARKS then have a small lapse, dipping below optimal play by game 40. They then move upwards by game 50 and then drop again -1 to -2.5 points BELOW the Curve by game 60. Corrections are in order and the team then surges upwards (dramatically so last season) to finish the campaign 1 to 2 full points ABOVE the Curve. See the chart below for the SHARKS’ play in relation to the PQC over the past three campaigns.

This season, the SAN JOSE SHARKS’ first 10 games of the season are played 9 OCTOBER – 28 OCTOBER. Our research indicates they earn a PQC rating of 5.7 during this time frame. The SHARKS will play 3 back-to-back series in the first ten games of the 2008/9 NHL season. While this may be a taxing way to begin the season for players who haven’t played much hockey the last few months, this should allow the SHARKS to get their skates under them and legs warmed up in quick order. If they play well (as they usually do to start a new season), we expect to see the team climb with another +Rating compared to the PQC within the first 10-20 games.

Some statistics of note to manage your expectations in to late OCTOBER are:

• Post lockout, the SHARKS’ record in the first 10-game segments is 16-12-2

• The team’s 3-year per-game averages: 3.03 GF and 2.58 GA

• Two of the three SHARKS’ season openers have seen overtime before a victor; once resulting in an OT win, the other resulting in a shoot-out loss

• SAN JOSE has played a total of 48 games requiring either OT or a Shootout. The SHARKS will play an average of 2 OT games per 10-game period

OGA will be measuring the SHARKS against their PQC Rating of 5.7 (as well as with all other NHL teams) in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with the SAN JOSE SHARKS Game 10 Report. The G10R will be delivered to our subscription customers by 2PM Central on 29 OCTOBER and available for purchase online by 2PM Central, 30 OCTOBER. See the OGA store for more details HERE. You can also view a sample for our G10R HERE. (Make sure to view all 3 tabs!)

Over the previous three years (post-lockout), the SHARKS earn a PQC rating of 5.3. But keep an eye out for their systemic drops in relation to the PQC by games 40 and 60 followed by a huge push and tough, offensive play as they close out the season making ready for another run at the Cup. They also know how to dominate a close game as last season showed them securing points in the standings in one-goal games with a record of 26-7-10. Also of note is the SHARKS tendency to play well in back-to-back games. Since the lockout, the SHARKS have won 30 and lost 13 of back-to-back contests.

The SHARKS are well rested and their underperforming offensive threats from last season are eager for redemption. The defense has been made stronger by off-season acquisitions and they will be playing under a new coach. Again, of course, expectations are high. And the fans are anxious to see this team break the 2nd round barrier.

OGA will be measuring their team performance against the PQC online and via our Game Reports available for purchase. For your best value, see our subscription information HERE. In the meantime, stay tuned to The OGA Blog and check out the SAN JOSE SHARKS G10R for a thorough review of the team’s performance as measured against our proprietary PQC.

Tomorrow we wrap up the On Goal Analysis Season Preview Reports with an optimistic look on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS in the SPR. After all, even OGA knows they have to actually play the games…at least 10 of them.

Remember, it’s only a puck until you take one in the teeth. Then, it’s a Frozen Pill.

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The TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING SPR by The Colonel

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
http://www.ongoalanalysis.com
on 2 October 2008

The Lightning have earned a playoff berth twice in the three seasons since the Lockout. Most interesting about these two forays into the ‘Second Season’ has been that in 2006/7, Tampa Bay secured their slot on their last game of the season exactly EVEN with On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) Playoff Qualifying Curve (the PQC), and in 2005/6, with a –.5. In those two years, they scrapped and battled right along the PQC throughout the season. That makes this team, in addition to all of the off-season acquisitions (Stamkos at the draft, Malone, Prospal, Recchi, Roberts, Vrbata, Carle, Mazaros and Kolzig), some of the most edge-of-your-seat hockey you can see in the land of 72.4 average degrees F (22.4 degrees C).

In the past three seasons, OGA called Tampa Bay OUT of the playoffs twice by the end of Game 40 (1 and 2 JANUARY). In 2006/7, that call was incorrect as the Lightning fought back from a deficit of –3 to earn that last playoff berth for the Eastern Conference on the last day of the regular season. Only the Washington Capitals have had a more prolific comeback to earn a spot in the playoffs (see tomorrow’s Season Preview Report from The Colonel). That makes Tampa Bay one of the 13% of all calls IN or OUT of the playoffs that have been incorrect, and part of the testament to the character of hockey players as a species of sportsman.

What did OGA see this past season and what is in store along the 2008/9 horizon?

The Lightning ended the last three years with an average rating of –3.5 below the PQC. This statistic is skewed to some extent by last season’s collapse of 23 aggregate losses (two OTL’s equaling one, overall loss) in the first 40 games and a season-ending –11 below the PQC. Particularly brutal was the mid-DECEMBER to early-JANUARY timeframe:

• Tampa Bay played to Game 20 above the PQC.
  
• The Game 30 period began with a string of five losses and ended below the PQC. The wheels didn’t come off the wagon, however, until the Game 40 period where seven losses were registered and Tampa Bay slipped to a –5 below the PQC. Nobody since the Lockout has come back from that kind of deficit and OGA called them OUT of the playoffs on 1 JANUARY.

• As a testament to their scrappy character, the Lightning played the next 20 games without dropping any lower against the PQC. The writing was on the wall, however, as they lost five games leading up to the 2008 Trade Deadline and were mathematically eliminated on 1 MARCH.

The final season results, however, brought the new management group, the first pick in the Entry Draft and a re-tooling of the team, so statistics about the fundamentals of their game are likely of no help in looking forward to this season. Instead, OGA councils you to compare this season’s output to the character of their play over the last three seasons. At the same time, keep a watchful eye with OGA on through Game 40 as Tampa Bay is on the bubble for a potential playoff bid.

The sum of the Lightning’s performance against the PQC is displayed in the graph below. Tampa Bay traditionally starts right at, or just above, the PQC in the first 10 games of the season. Something of a slide begins to appear in the Game 30 time frame, which is about on par with when fatigue starts to set in for NHL players and teams as a general rule. At Game 50, they play back up along the PQC, and if they can maintain that level, and scrap for one, good spike in performance to even out any skid (as was done by Game 30 of the 2005/6 season), then they can ride their play on into the 2008/9 playoffs.

The Lightning’s first 10 games of the season start in PRAGUE on 4 OCTOBER and end at home on 1 NOVEMBER. Our analysis indicates that in that time frame, Tampa Bay earns an average PQC rating of 5.5 which is just above The Curve and is good for approximately 11 standings points. They have won two-of-three home openers and only one-of-three road openers over the last three seasons. Starting with a home and away game at the neutral site in PRAGUE, the Lightning return to five straight home tilts back in North America.

Some additional, critical statistics to keep in mind for the month of OCTOBER are:

• From 7 – 18 OCTOBER the Lightning lose 71.4% of games played. (This potentially affects three games.)

• That is followed from 19 – 26 OCTOBER where Tampa Bay wins 77.8% of their contests. (Another two games…)

• And the Lightning play an average of 1.33 ‘Bonus Hockey’ games in OCTOBER, where they are most successful with an average winning percentage of 72% in Shootouts.

So, the Lightning as a team can scrap their way up the win column and stay competitive for a playoff berth. They have drafted or traded for a lot of forwards with the ability to put the puck in the net or provide the grit necessary to win games. They also have two goalies capable of stealing games if the defense in front of them provides enough effort to stave off too much scoring.

And Tampa Bay’s defense has been maligned by many. They have no Lidstrom, Phaneuf, Green, or Campbell. Some say after spending all of that money on the forwards, they failed to get two strong blueliners to build the rest of the defensive corps around. But there are a few things to consider with those comments: ALL of the defense stands over six feet tall; they only combine to chip in about 1/3 of a point per game, so concentrate more on defense than offense; and Barry Melrose knows the best way to be able to compensate for a less-than-Detroit-like defense is with a solid, attacking offense. In my world of the last 24 years, you fight in the best possible manner with the tools at hand which is exactly what the Lightning will do. Getting the first pass from behind the cage to a speeding forward corps is going to be very key to Lightning success.

During this season, OGA will carefully review team play against the trends and forward your Tampa Bay Lightning’s Game 10 Report to season subscribers by 2pm CST on 2 NOVEMBER and make it available for order from the On Goal Analysis web site by 2pm CST on 3 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

Will Tampa Bay begin the 2008/9 season like they played it last year? Can the Lightning get to 1 JANUARY above the PQC and then hold on for rest of the season? OGA will be there to make the call, and you can, too.

More to follow. Until tomorrow and the Washington Capitals’ Season Preview Report (SPR), this is The Colonel signing off…

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The NASHVILLE PREDATORS SPR by Big Tex

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com

1 October 2008

07-08 marked the fourth consecutive season in which the Nashville Predators earned a berth in the Stanley Cup playoffs. While impressive, the Preds’ on-ice success has been overshadowed by off-ice issues involving ownership, attendance woes and continuing threats/rumors of relocation. Can the Predators fight through the distractions and extend their playoff streak in 08-09, or will they be Singing the Blues in Music City?

In two of the past three seasons, Nashville was one of the best teams in the NHL in early-season play, finishing their first ten games in 05-06 with a rating of +3.5 against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), and +1.5 in 06-07. In 07-08, however, the Preds stumbled out of the starting gate and finished the first ten games at -1 against the PQC. This was the beginning of a season-long battle for a playoff spot, which the Predators finally clinched on 3 APRIL.

Some statistics of note from 07-08:

• Nashville’s tight-checking style of play made them very tough to come back against, as they compiled a record of 34-6-4 (.773) when scoring first, which was good for 6th in the NHL
  

• The Preds were even better when leading after two periods, winning 92.9% of the time (3rd in NHL)
  

• On the flip side, Nashville was 30th in the league when trailing after one period, coming from behind just 18.4% of the time
  

• Special teams were good and bad – the Predators’ 27th-ranked Power Play was a woeful 14.8%, but their Penalty Kill was a stifling 85.4%, 3rd in the NHL

How do you spell STANLEY? M-O-N-E-Y. Okay, many teams have proven that it takes more than filthy lucre to hoist the Cup, but…it doesn’t hurt. Unfortunately, the ownership in Nashville doesn’t have deep pockets, and fans staying away in droves have compounded the problem. As a result, the Predators steered clear of the free agent market this summer, and are pinning their hopes on youngsters like Patric Hornqvist , Vernon Fiddler and Ville Koistinen to step up. Likewise, veterans will be asked to do more (are you listening, J.P. Dumont?).

Last season, the Predators finished 2nd in the Central Division. In the off-season, division-mates Detroit, Chicago and Columbus all improved through trades and the free agent market. To earn a fifth consecutive playoff spot, Nashville will have to consistently play to their full potential, as one off night could mean the difference between ice time and Crying Time in APRIL.

The Predators’ first ten games are played 10 – 30 OCTOBER. Our exhaustive research indicates that in that timeframe, Nashville earns an average PQC rating of 6.3 and about 13 points in the NHL standings. 07-08 marked the first post-Lockout season in which the Preds ended their first ten games below the Curve. They found themselves at -1 after Game 10, and went on a 6-2-2 tear in Games 11 – 20 before slumping to 4-6 in Games 21-30. The Predators clawed their way back to even with the PQC by Game 60, then slipped back just below the Curve for the last quarter of the season. They were one of three teams in 07-08 to play so close to the PQC that OGA could not call them IN or OUT of the playoffs prior to their mathematical clinch (3 APRIL).

In each of the three seasons since the Lockout, one team has qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs despite finishing BELOW the Playoff Qualifying Curve. In 07-08, Nashville earned that dubious honor and set a record in the process – the Preds finished the season -1.5 against the PQC, while the other two “negative” playoff teams each finished -.5.

Some statistics of note for OCTOBER:

• Post-Lockout, Nashville has a combined record of 18-10-2 through the first ten games

• Four of the Preds’ first five games are on the road – in OCTOBER, they’ve lost 9 of 14 road games over the past three years (64.3%)

• The Predators are a streaky team in OCTOBER, winning their first eight games in 05-06, starting 06-07 with 3 Ls followed by 4 Ws, and dropping six straight last season

OGA will be measuring the Predators against their average PQC rating of 6.3, as well as against other NHL teams, in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with Nashville’s Game 10 Report, due to season subscribers by 2PM CST on 31 OCTOBER, and available for order from ongoalanalysis.com by 2PM CST on 1 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

Nashville has a solid core of talent, and Coach Barry Trotz has proven his ability to get the most out of this team. One has to wonder, though, when a player on the cusp of stardom (Alexander Radulov) walks away from his contract, deciding he’d rather play in Russia than Nashville… What is going on behind the scenes? If the Predators can set aside those off-ice distractions, if Patric Hornqvist can make the team forget about Radulov, if Dan Ellis can pick up in October where he left off last April, then the Preds might not miss The Dance in 08-09. Track the Predators’ progress on The OGA Blogs and in Nashville’s G10R, available 1 NOVEMBER. All season long, OGA will keep you posted.

Thursday, check back in for the New York Rangers SPR. Until then, Big Tex says, “Try the Fried Guacamole!” “You heard me!”

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The PITTSBURGH PENGUINS SPR by Frozen Pill

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com

01 October 2008

Sid the Kid Crosby. Evgeni Malkin.

Now that’s said, let’s look at how the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS fared last season. Pretty well, apparently. Having elevated their team play, the PENGUINS’ cohesion came about much sooner than many had predicted. Cohesive enough to propel themselves to the Stanley Cup Finals as victors in the East having only lost 2 playoff games in the climb. Although rightly subdued by the stalwart Wings in six games most believe we will see Mario’s team in many more fruitful Cup runs over the next few years.

In the previous two seasons, OGA was able to call the PENGUINS qualified for post-season play by the end of their 60th game. This means, even with those All-Star names, it is the team effort played against the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) we are measuring. And the PENS like to keep it close to the vest. Or is it a tuxedo jacket?

During the course of the 2007/8 NHL Season:

• The PITTSBURGH PENGUINS finished +4.5 against the PQC

• The PENGUINS finished 4th in the league on Power Play percentage (20.37%)

• The PENGUINS finished 23rd in the league on Penalty Kill percentage (80.95%)

• The team lost both their captain, Crosby and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to injury for sizeable portions of the season

• The PENS advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals and lost to the Detroit RedWings in 6 games

Having won the trade-deadline prize for Marion Hossa, the team certainly benefited from his scoring prowess in the final stretch and into the playoffs last season. But Hossa signed with the Cup Kissing Wings during the summer and he was not the only player to move on. In fact, 6 of the PENS’ top 12 scorers signed with different clubs during the summer and repeating last season’s success will require a healthy roster and perhaps a huge year from players like Pascal Dupuis, Maxime Talbot and maybe yet another rookie with high hopes, the Finnish Elite League scoring leader, Janne Pesonen.

For a recent twist, Sergei Gonchar will be out of the lineup for an expected 4-6 months after suffering ligament and cartilage damage on his first shift of the 08-09 pre-season and will require arthroscopic surgery. Ryan Whitney is also shelved until late in the season so the PENGUINS’ defense may be in some disarray this OCTOBER.

The PITTSBURGH PENGUINS are on an upwards trend towards dominance in the East and also against our OGA-developed Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). At the end of the first 10-game segment, last season they were a + .5 when measured against the Curve. They slipped below by game 20 and then climbed up and above the Curve until the conclusions of the season. We expect another strong start this year but what should we expect per their performance as measured against the PQC?

(cont)…In the previous two seasons, the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS started strong over the boards and then immediately began to drop games. In both seasons (06-07 / 07-08) the PENGUINS found themselves at the lowest point below the OGA-developed Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) at the 20-game mark. This is the lowest they would play compared to the curve throughout either season. Over the three years since the lockout, they have averaged -2.3 against the PQC. The average is affected by their forgetful 05-06 season. See the chart below for the PENGUINS’ play in relation to the curve over the past three campaigns.

This season, the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS first 10 games of the season are played 4 OCTOBER – 28 OCTOBER. Our research indicates they earn a PQC rating of 5.3 during this time frame. Bear in mind the PENGUINS begin their 08-09 campaign in Europe this year and will have several days off after returning home in order to rest and reset the internal time clocks. Look for the excitement of playing in Europe as the Eastern Conference Champions and the 5 days off after their return home to help the team with a strong start this season.

Some statistics of note to manage your expectations in to late October are:

• The PENGUINS may again display a dramatic shift against the PQC displaying a tendency to have a 2.0–2.5 point move between games 10 and 20.

• The team’s 3-year per game averages: 3.12 GF and 3.16 GA

• Post lockout, the PENGUINS’ record in the first 10-game segments is 13-11-6

• The PENGUINS have lost 2 of its 3 season openers since the lockout

• Of the six home/away openers over the last three years, PITTSBURGH has WON 2 of 3 home season openers and LOST 2 of 3 away season openers

• PITTSBURGH has played a total of 62 games requiring either OT or a Shootout (25.20% of all regular season games).

OGA will be measuring the PENGUINS against their PQC Rating of 5.3 (as well as with all other NHL teams) in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS Game 10 Report. The G10R will be delivered to our subscription customers by 2PM Central on 29 OCTOBER and available for purchase online by 2PM Central, 30 OCTOBER. See the OGA store for more details HERE. You can also view a sample for our G10R HERE. (Make sure to view all 3 tabs!)

There is not much differential in Goals For and Goals Against for PITTSBURGH and this will be an area of team focus, in particular as it relates to their Penalty Kill teams. The PENS have a good chance this year of improving their performance against the Curve but there will be some hills to climb with some early openings in the defense lineup and adjustments made up front to compensate for departed players like Hossa and Gary Roberts. They also finished last in the NHL on face-off percentage (.461) and must look to improve here if they hope to defend their conference title.

But don’t expect a repeat of the terrible 05-06 season where OGA saw the PENGUINS remove themselves from playoff contention by 12 DECEMBER 2005 (game 30). We made the call even though mathematical elimination did not occur until 1 FEBRUARY 2006 (game 53). Whether or not we see a repeat of last season and another chance for young Crosby to lift the Cup will depend upon how well the team adjusts to sizeable changes in the lineup and team chemistry.

OGA will be measuring their team performance against the PQC online and via our Game Reports available for purchase. For your best value, see our subscription information HERE. In the meantime, stay tuned to The OGA Blog and check out the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS G10R for a thorough review of the team’s performance as measured against our proprietary PQC.

Tomorrow we dip into the Shark Tank with the SAN JOSE SHARKS’ SPR. Remember, it’s only a puck until you take one in the teeth. Then, it’s a Frozen Pill.

Now, for a special treat today with Sid on the deflection...