I am military. And being so, I tend to get to the heart of the matter. I zero in on the mission and attack it with vigor. So if I was working for an NHL team, I would do a few things some might call cold-hearted or calculated. I prefer to call it mission-focused.
My mission, in running a team, would be to build a Stanley Cup winning franchise with a fan base that cannot buy enough tickets to see the team in action.
My intent would be to focus on building the kind of fans that cannot help but come to the game even when the team is not blowing out the opposition. And I would build this team through the local population base of children.
The ‘Evil’ Plan
Let’s say it how it really is. While most of us would like to say our kids go where we take them, more often in pure statistical terms, families are taken where their children’s activities go. So bring the children to the rink, and you have a whole family in the seats. That’s 3.14 family members in the U.S. and about three in Canada. In effect, if the child comes to the game, you sell 2-3 tickets.
So the Evil Plan – we’ll call it the ‘EP’ – is to integrate children into the operation as much as is possible. Here is my coup de grace example:
Kidterns. I would invite the local school board Presidents to the Arena for lunch and sit down to work out the EP. It would be the following:
1. Take essays and/or video tapes from students age 12-16.
2. Find the best essays/videos and choose the right children to represent the team
3. Work out class credit with the school boards for the children to miss a week of school to participate in Kidtern camp with no grade repercussions in exchange for class/school reports on their experience (yes, to excite even MORE kids about hockey)
4. Conduct Kidtern camp one week when the team is on the road but within a couple weeks of the Christmas/Boxing Day Holidays
5. Have three children work with trainers on Hockey equipment; three children work ticket sales; two children work game-time, on-the-jumbotron promotions; 10 children work pre-game promotions/customer assistance; five children work with major staff assistants; and one each boy and girl with the team’s media for game-time presentations – the goal is to spread the 25 children around as many school districts as possible simultaneously
6. Bring them to Kidtern Camp and then have them work for a week with the team over the holidays – the focus would be all for the kids to go all out for one home game (the kids also get a sit-down lunch with the team after a morning skate somewhere in there so their report can say ‘…I lunched with Ovechkin….’)
7. Sell the parents up to six each 50% off tickets to come and see their children at work with the team on the prime home game night – ensure to have in-arena cameras show either live, or run recorded video clips of the kids during game breaks/in-between periods
So you would have three kids helping to prepare equipment and set up the room before the game and in the runway to assist the trainers as the game is ongoing. (Among ‘normal’ duties, have them tape one of the rookie’s sticks.)
Three children would work right alongside the agents on the phones after training and in the ticket office for game time. (Have them call and melt the big corporations to sell corporate boxes though the sheer power of a child’s enthusiasm.)
Two children would work as assistants with the jumbotron promotion/contest crew – if they are particularly able, they might own the mic to run one contest. (Smiles fill the building and at least two sets of parents holler ‘…That’s MY kid!..”.)
Ten youngsters would assist with promotional hand outs and giveaways throughout the game. (Have them talk people into parting with their money on a great idea at the fan store or concession stand.)
Five sharp kiddos would be assistants to the managements’ personal assistants to learn how that critical mission is conducted.
And the most gregarious young man and woman would be trained to be a broadcast/interview team. It’s not that they can take Heidi Androl’s place. It’s that they have a unique interpretation at that young age we all have forgotten to express and can’t help but laugh at when kids ‘say the darndest things.’ They get one jumbotron interview and, if it can be done, one short segment on air. (Every kid wants in the Kidtern program now…)
At the very end, give them all team shirts, signed pucks and hats, and special coupons for discounted tickets for the rest of the season as long as tickets are available. You know, to increase the opportunity to come out to games.
And send a letter to the very best of the Kidterns to return for one, early-round Playoff game encore as a special recognition of a job well done. Maintain a listing of Kidtern ‘graduates’ for consideration as they become young adults and may want to apply for a position with the team.
Some Other Ideas To Increase The Butt-To-Seat Ratio
I have three more.
Once more with the children… For the top 40 kiddos not chosen for the Kidtern program, at 10 kids per special day, they join the Kidterns for a skate with the team. So four times during the year, the team donates an hour of ice time and brings the 25 Kidterns and 10 runners-up onto the ice with the players. All the while, proud/jealous parents are staring through the glass at their lucky progeny. (Pass them coupons for special discount rates on tickets as they watch.)
The first in-game special I call ‘How Suite It Is.’ For 10 games during the season, after the first period, any unsold/unoccupied suites become the privilege of some lower-bowl season ticket holders. Go to the appropriate sections a few minutes before the end of the 1st Period and round up the lucky ticket holders. And make a big deal of it as you lead them away to their new, plush seats.
Then there is ‘Come On Down.’ Tickets in the lower bowl are freakin’ expensive. Some more than others. So for the same 10 games as ‘How Suite It Is,’ during the 3rd Period, random, upper bowl rows/sections are taken down to fill in unoccupied, lower bowl seats. The wealth is shared in an awesome way all upper deck fans have thought and wished for as they looked down and cursed the un-attending below them.
Summary
So the EP is simple. Get the paying parents to the rink through their children just like the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. Expose lots of kids to something special – some in person and others vicariously as they listen to the school report from the lucky, chosen. And share the wealth.
Fill the seats. By a team, staff and support. Build a sense of community. And win The Cup.
What would YOU do if you were the boss?
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(Image unashamedly stolen from Puck Daddy)
Going into the 2009-2010 NHL season, the Phoenix Coyotes were picked by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Western Conference. Off-ice issues - namely, the never-ending ownership/relocation saga - were considered insurmountable distractions for the team. The only thing the Coyotes had to look forward to was a high first-round draft pick in June of 2010...or so virtually everyone thought.
A funny thing happened on the way to the 2010 NHL Entry Draft: Phoenix defied all expectations, posting a 50-25-7 record, good for fourth in the Western Conference. Though they bowed out in the Conference Quarter-Finals, the fact that they made it into the Stanley Cup Playoffs at all was remarkable.
Are the Dallas Stars the 2010-2011 version of the Coyotes? Similarities do exist:
Unlike the Coyotes, the Stars don't face the threat of relocation. These teams share one more commonality, however: Like last season's Coyotes, the Stars are going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As of Game 30, the Dallas Stars are Chasing Stanley, according to the On Goal Analysis Super-Lucky No MSG Added Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). Last season, the PQC was correct for 90% of the NHL, and the Stars show no indication of falling into the other 10%.
Why the Stars are going to make the playoffs
As a wise man said back in September, the Stars needed to cut their Goals Against dramatically this season. Dallas' GAA for the 2009-2010 season was 2.98 (23rd in the NHL). Through Game 30 this season, the Stars' GAA is 2.67 (12th). Dallas is allowing virtually the same number of Shots on Goal this season (31.0) as last (31.2), so improved goaltending has been key. Kari Lehtonen has been solid, and backup Andrew Raycroft has been a pleasant surprise.
At the other end of the rink, the Stars are scoring only slightly less than last season (2.73 Goals/Game now vs. 2.80 G/Gm then), and the top line of Loui Eriksson-Brad Richards-James Neal (combined: 90GP, 37-53-90, +28)is one of the best trios in the NHL. Having a second legitimate scoring line is essential for success, and the Stars are extremely fortunate to have Brenden Morrow-Mike Ribiero-Jamie Benn (87GP, 21-37-58, -6) coming over the boards.
The Stars also benefit from good health (Lehtonen's current back problems notwithstanding), as ten skaters have played all thirty games, while five more have missed three or fewer contests. This could change in one shift on the ice, but for now, it's very good news for Dallas.
After a two-year drought, I'm looking forward to seeing Stanley Cup Playoff hockey in Dallas again. Come April, I guess I'll have to go to the bank (backyard) and make a withdrawal (dig up the mason jar marked, "Playoff Ticket Money"). I can't wait.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
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Monday, January 24, 2011
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Sunday, January 23, 2011
OGA Notes - 23 January
The OGA crew has been really busy all season, so you have seen us mostly on our web site at ongoalanalysis.com and heard us on JabberHockey. But it doesn't mean we still are not researching the NHL as a whole to find the essence of the Win and how it relates to who is and is not in the Playoffs as far out from the mathematical call as possible.
Or are we? In the last few days, we re-defined the mathematical call. We have determined how to account for all teams total points through our Playoff Point Predictor (P3). On display at our home page is a listing of the Top 8 teams in each conference, their projected, total points and their last position from the night before, all right under our Hot Picture of the night. Add the P3 to the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), and you get a highly accurate prognostication of who will be playing on into late April this season. And, we might add, GAMES before it is mathematically settled.
We have also been following something called the Black And Blue Schedule all season long. The premise is for the 30 times the NHL scheduled two teams to play back-to-back/home-and-away this season, the second game is likely to be won by the team who lost the opener, in OT or a SO and with more total PIMs. In effect, the pair of game, uninterrupted by other opponents, potentially has that same aire of competition as a playoff game.
While overall this notion is only correct a bit over one-third of the time (.373), it is interesting to note a few things here:
1. Most correct in the prediction is the increase in PIMs in contest #2 where that prediction has been correct eight of 17 times (.471).
2. Second most accurate has been that the opposite team wins in Game 2 (seven-of-17 for .412).
3. Lastly is the OT/SO percentage with only four-of-17/.235 games being correct with the overall premise. While the percentage of OT/SO games is down a bit this year, it's only by an estimated 13 games from last season. So this category is not as good a call as the original theory might have suggested.
We DID find an interesting off-shoot of the theory we did not initially expect, however. Of the 17 games to date, 10 (.588) have ended in a one-goal decision. The current NHL average is approximately 32%. So almost double the Black And Blue Schedule games end with a one goal difference than the overall NHL average.
Just a couple of notes this morning from On Goal Analysis for your consideration.
Take me to On Goal Analysis
Or are we? In the last few days, we re-defined the mathematical call. We have determined how to account for all teams total points through our Playoff Point Predictor (P3). On display at our home page is a listing of the Top 8 teams in each conference, their projected, total points and their last position from the night before, all right under our Hot Picture of the night. Add the P3 to the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), and you get a highly accurate prognostication of who will be playing on into late April this season. And, we might add, GAMES before it is mathematically settled.
We have also been following something called the Black And Blue Schedule all season long. The premise is for the 30 times the NHL scheduled two teams to play back-to-back/home-and-away this season, the second game is likely to be won by the team who lost the opener, in OT or a SO and with more total PIMs. In effect, the pair of game, uninterrupted by other opponents, potentially has that same aire of competition as a playoff game.
While overall this notion is only correct a bit over one-third of the time (.373), it is interesting to note a few things here:
1. Most correct in the prediction is the increase in PIMs in contest #2 where that prediction has been correct eight of 17 times (.471).
2. Second most accurate has been that the opposite team wins in Game 2 (seven-of-17 for .412).
3. Lastly is the OT/SO percentage with only four-of-17/.235 games being correct with the overall premise. While the percentage of OT/SO games is down a bit this year, it's only by an estimated 13 games from last season. So this category is not as good a call as the original theory might have suggested.
We DID find an interesting off-shoot of the theory we did not initially expect, however. Of the 17 games to date, 10 (.588) have ended in a one-goal decision. The current NHL average is approximately 32%. So almost double the Black And Blue Schedule games end with a one goal difference than the overall NHL average.
Just a couple of notes this morning from On Goal Analysis for your consideration.
Take me to On Goal Analysis
Thursday, December 23, 2010
December 23rd's In The NHL
The NHL has a penchant for the Christmas Eve, Eve (CE2) schedule. Tonight for example, there are 13 games/26 teams on the ice for your pre-Christmas viewing pleasure. But how well have teams fared since the Lockout when they can smell the Christmas turkey in the oven?
The Eastern Conference on 23 December
Where an OTL/SOL counts as one-half of a Win, the Eastern Conference overall has a .524 winning percentage on 23 December. In order with percentages, they stack up like this:
WSH 1.0
ATL .800
PHI .750
BOS, OTT .600
CAR, NYI, PIT, TBL .500 (2-2)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
FLA, NYR .375
MTL, NJD, TOR .250
Eastern teams on the road for CE2, however, stack up differently with an overall .516 winning percentage. Individually:
PHI, WSH 1.0 (2-0)
TBL 1.0 (1-0)
ATL .750
OTT .600
CAR, NJD .500 (1-1)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
BOS .333
MTL .250
NYR, TOR .000 (0-1)
FLA .000 (0-1)
NYI, PIT No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season
So the Eastern Conference is pretty consistent at a bit over .500 on CE2. The above would imply tonight that:
ATL has a better than average chance of beating BOS
WSH is likely to take down PIT
TBL can beat the NYR
NJD, notoriously bad on CE2, may win against NYI tonight for the coaching change intangible
If MTL smells the plane’s seat leather, they will lose to CAR
BUF has a decent chance of beating FLAAnd OTT might not beat NSH as they are .600, but have lost on the road the last two seasons
The Western Conference on 23 December
The Western Conference overall has fared a bit better than their Eastern Conference brothers at a .550 winning percentage for CE2. Western overall percentages are:
MIN 1.0
SJS .833
DAL .800
COL, NSH .750
STL .700
DET, PHX, CHI .625
CGY .600
LAK .333
EDM .250
VAN .167
ANA .000 (0-3)
CBJ .000 (0-5)
Western teams on the road for CE2, however, perform significantly worse on the road for CE2 when compared to their Eastern brethren with a combined .322 winning percentage. Individually, they are:
DAL 1.0
DET .750
NSH, STL .667
CGY .500
LAK .333
PHX .250
CHI, COL .000 (0-1)
CBJ, VAN .000 (0-2)
ANA, EDM .000 (0-3)
MIN, SJS No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season
So the Western Conference overall is over .500 on CE2, but win less than one-third of the time on the road. So tonight’s possibilities include:
A virtual toss-up for VAN at CBJ
DET might have a slight advantage at STL
As we said above, NSH has a slight, potential edge over OTT
DAL should defeat CGY
COL will have a close, possible win over MIN
The LAK are the likely victor over EDM
And SJS gets the nod over visiting, Bryzgalovless PHX
Summary
So tonight, the West’s winning dominance over the East it is likely to continue with a NSH victory over OTT. All other games are intra-Conference, with the home team holding a slight statistical advantage and likely to take eight of 12 other contests.
Just some fun facts for tonight as we all remember going into the holiday season to give thanks for Hockey!
The Eastern Conference on 23 December
Where an OTL/SOL counts as one-half of a Win, the Eastern Conference overall has a .524 winning percentage on 23 December. In order with percentages, they stack up like this:
WSH 1.0
ATL .800
PHI .750
BOS, OTT .600
CAR, NYI, PIT, TBL .500 (2-2)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
FLA, NYR .375
MTL, NJD, TOR .250
Eastern teams on the road for CE2, however, stack up differently with an overall .516 winning percentage. Individually:
PHI, WSH 1.0 (2-0)
TBL 1.0 (1-0)
ATL .750
OTT .600
CAR, NJD .500 (1-1)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
BOS .333
MTL .250
NYR, TOR .000 (0-1)
FLA .000 (0-1)
NYI, PIT No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season
So the Eastern Conference is pretty consistent at a bit over .500 on CE2. The above would imply tonight that:
ATL has a better than average chance of beating BOS
WSH is likely to take down PIT
TBL can beat the NYR
NJD, notoriously bad on CE2, may win against NYI tonight for the coaching change intangible
If MTL smells the plane’s seat leather, they will lose to CAR
BUF has a decent chance of beating FLAAnd OTT might not beat NSH as they are .600, but have lost on the road the last two seasons
The Western Conference on 23 December
The Western Conference overall has fared a bit better than their Eastern Conference brothers at a .550 winning percentage for CE2. Western overall percentages are:
MIN 1.0
SJS .833
DAL .800
COL, NSH .750
STL .700
DET, PHX, CHI .625
CGY .600
LAK .333
EDM .250
VAN .167
ANA .000 (0-3)
CBJ .000 (0-5)
Western teams on the road for CE2, however, perform significantly worse on the road for CE2 when compared to their Eastern brethren with a combined .322 winning percentage. Individually, they are:
DAL 1.0
DET .750
NSH, STL .667
CGY .500
LAK .333
PHX .250
CHI, COL .000 (0-1)
CBJ, VAN .000 (0-2)
ANA, EDM .000 (0-3)
MIN, SJS No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season
So the Western Conference overall is over .500 on CE2, but win less than one-third of the time on the road. So tonight’s possibilities include:
A virtual toss-up for VAN at CBJ
DET might have a slight advantage at STL
As we said above, NSH has a slight, potential edge over OTT
DAL should defeat CGY
COL will have a close, possible win over MIN
The LAK are the likely victor over EDM
And SJS gets the nod over visiting, Bryzgalovless PHX
Summary
So tonight, the West’s winning dominance over the East it is likely to continue with a NSH victory over OTT. All other games are intra-Conference, with the home team holding a slight statistical advantage and likely to take eight of 12 other contests.
Just some fun facts for tonight as we all remember going into the holiday season to give thanks for Hockey!
Friday, December 17, 2010
NHL Weekend Roadie: East Bound and Down Edition
After a brief hiatus, the NHL Weekend Roadie is back...and this time, it's for real. This weekend, 2/3rds of the OGA Boys (The Colonel and Yours Truly), along with a herd of kids (Tex Jr. and The Colonel's Lieutenants) hit the road for some pre-Christmas Southeast Division action.
The itinerary:
NHL Week Eleven (Saturday, 18 DEC - Monday, 20 DEC)
Saturday, 18 DEC: New Jersey @ Atlanta - We'll be up at oh-dark-thirty, as we're driving from Pineville, LA to Atlanta for this game. The drive itself should take about eleven hours (including stops and the time change) and the puck drops at 7:00pm, so it's going to be a long day. Must.Get.To.Philips.Arena.Early. , as they're offering $1 hot dogs, pretzels and sodas from 6:00pm - puck drop. The question isn't, "What's for dinner?", it's "How many?" Oh, and there's apparently going to be an interesting hockey game, too, as the New Jersey Kovalchuks (who are sucking less of late) visit the New and Improved Atlanta Thrashawks. Look for Atlanta to show Kovy the error of his ways, while the Hundred-Million-Dollar Man tries to build on his recent two-goal outing.
Sunday, 19 DEC: Lake City, FL - This is a travel day for the OGA Boys. Before hitting the road, though, we first must make the pilgrimage to Mary Mac's Tea Room for some excellent Southern home cookin'. Tex Jr. and I have dined there in the past, and give it four thumbs up. After lunch, we'll waddle over to the World of Coca Cola, where we'll get hopped up on sugar and caffiene before rolling about five hours south to Lake City, FL, to crash for the night.
Monday, 20 DEC: Carolina @ Tampa Bay - From Lake City, Tampa is a quick three-hour drive. We'll get there early in the day, so as to sample the local eats and the Florida Aquarium. Need to get to the arena early for this one, too, as the first 5,000 peeps through the door get a Steve Stamkos bobblehead. I believe Homer Simpson said it best: WOO-HOO!!! The Hurricanes are riding a three-game win streak, while the Lightning have won their last two. They're division rivals. What's not to like about this game?
Tuesday, 21 DEC: Go Home - While we'd really like to head back up to Atlanta for the Blues - Thrashers game, familial obligations force us to turn west on I-10. It's probably for the best, as this will be Day Four of a Chevy Tahoe filled with five boys, ranging in age from 9-46 (average mental/emotional age of the group: 12). That's right: Five boys, one SUV, 1,912 miles in four days. This trip can be best described by a movie title: There Will Be Blood.
As is our M.O., The Colonel and I will be Tweeting along the way (@Pelican4 and @OGAs_BigTex, respectively). Follow along out of morbid curiousity, if nothing else.
I've got to finish packing and go pick Tex Jr. up from school, as we've got a six-hour drive to The Colonel's Hockeybunker ahead of us. Tex Jr. will hold my hat while I drive. This is Big Tex, East Bound and Down.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
The itinerary:
NHL Week Eleven (Saturday, 18 DEC - Monday, 20 DEC)
Saturday, 18 DEC: New Jersey @ Atlanta - We'll be up at oh-dark-thirty, as we're driving from Pineville, LA to Atlanta for this game. The drive itself should take about eleven hours (including stops and the time change) and the puck drops at 7:00pm, so it's going to be a long day. Must.Get.To.Philips.Arena.Early. , as they're offering $1 hot dogs, pretzels and sodas from 6:00pm - puck drop. The question isn't, "What's for dinner?", it's "How many?" Oh, and there's apparently going to be an interesting hockey game, too, as the New Jersey Kovalchuks (who are sucking less of late) visit the New and Improved Atlanta Thrashawks. Look for Atlanta to show Kovy the error of his ways, while the Hundred-Million-Dollar Man tries to build on his recent two-goal outing.
Sunday, 19 DEC: Lake City, FL - This is a travel day for the OGA Boys. Before hitting the road, though, we first must make the pilgrimage to Mary Mac's Tea Room for some excellent Southern home cookin'. Tex Jr. and I have dined there in the past, and give it four thumbs up. After lunch, we'll waddle over to the World of Coca Cola, where we'll get hopped up on sugar and caffiene before rolling about five hours south to Lake City, FL, to crash for the night.
Monday, 20 DEC: Carolina @ Tampa Bay - From Lake City, Tampa is a quick three-hour drive. We'll get there early in the day, so as to sample the local eats and the Florida Aquarium. Need to get to the arena early for this one, too, as the first 5,000 peeps through the door get a Steve Stamkos bobblehead. I believe Homer Simpson said it best: WOO-HOO!!! The Hurricanes are riding a three-game win streak, while the Lightning have won their last two. They're division rivals. What's not to like about this game?
Tuesday, 21 DEC: Go Home - While we'd really like to head back up to Atlanta for the Blues - Thrashers game, familial obligations force us to turn west on I-10. It's probably for the best, as this will be Day Four of a Chevy Tahoe filled with five boys, ranging in age from 9-46 (average mental/emotional age of the group: 12). That's right: Five boys, one SUV, 1,912 miles in four days. This trip can be best described by a movie title: There Will Be Blood.
As is our M.O., The Colonel and I will be Tweeting along the way (@Pelican4 and @OGAs_BigTex, respectively). Follow along out of morbid curiousity, if nothing else.
I've got to finish packing and go pick Tex Jr. up from school, as we've got a six-hour drive to The Colonel's Hockeybunker ahead of us. Tex Jr. will hold my hat while I drive. This is Big Tex, East Bound and Down.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Dallas: This Season's Phoenix?
(Image unashamedly stolen from Puck Daddy)Going into the 2009-2010 NHL season, the Phoenix Coyotes were picked by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Western Conference. Off-ice issues - namely, the never-ending ownership/relocation saga - were considered insurmountable distractions for the team. The only thing the Coyotes had to look forward to was a high first-round draft pick in June of 2010...or so virtually everyone thought.
A funny thing happened on the way to the 2010 NHL Entry Draft: Phoenix defied all expectations, posting a 50-25-7 record, good for fourth in the Western Conference. Though they bowed out in the Conference Quarter-Finals, the fact that they made it into the Stanley Cup Playoffs at all was remarkable.
Are the Dallas Stars the 2010-2011 version of the Coyotes? Similarities do exist:
The Stars are currently for sale by Tom Hicks' lenders (Phoenix is currently for sale by Gary Bettman).
They've missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons (Phoenix missed the playoffs six consecutive seasons prior to last spring).
Preseason expectations for the Stars were very low (Ditto Phoenix last season).
Unlike the Coyotes, the Stars don't face the threat of relocation. These teams share one more commonality, however: Like last season's Coyotes, the Stars are going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As of Game 30, the Dallas Stars are Chasing Stanley, according to the On Goal Analysis Super-Lucky No MSG Added Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). Last season, the PQC was correct for 90% of the NHL, and the Stars show no indication of falling into the other 10%.
Why the Stars are going to make the playoffs
As a wise man said back in September, the Stars needed to cut their Goals Against dramatically this season. Dallas' GAA for the 2009-2010 season was 2.98 (23rd in the NHL). Through Game 30 this season, the Stars' GAA is 2.67 (12th). Dallas is allowing virtually the same number of Shots on Goal this season (31.0) as last (31.2), so improved goaltending has been key. Kari Lehtonen has been solid, and backup Andrew Raycroft has been a pleasant surprise.
At the other end of the rink, the Stars are scoring only slightly less than last season (2.73 Goals/Game now vs. 2.80 G/Gm then), and the top line of Loui Eriksson-Brad Richards-James Neal (combined: 90GP, 37-53-90, +28)is one of the best trios in the NHL. Having a second legitimate scoring line is essential for success, and the Stars are extremely fortunate to have Brenden Morrow-Mike Ribiero-Jamie Benn (87GP, 21-37-58, -6) coming over the boards.
The Stars also benefit from good health (Lehtonen's current back problems notwithstanding), as ten skaters have played all thirty games, while five more have missed three or fewer contests. This could change in one shift on the ice, but for now, it's very good news for Dallas.
After a two-year drought, I'm looking forward to seeing Stanley Cup Playoff hockey in Dallas again. Come April, I guess I'll have to go to the bank (backyard) and make a withdrawal (dig up the mason jar marked, "Playoff Ticket Money"). I can't wait.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Monday, December 13, 2010
OGA’s 13 December Non-Traditional Team Report
Weekly through the season as of games ending on Sunday night, On Goal Analysis will now produce a Non-Traditional Market Team Report so you, the fan, can understand how your favorite Non-Traditional team is playing against the rest of the League.
This week’s (first) report is for games ending Sunday, 12 December 2010.
The NHL as a Whole
At OGA, we measure teams’ play against the rest of the clubs in their Conference in order to determine their probability of making (Chasing Stanley) or missing (Tee Time) the 2011 Playoffs. Since the Lockout, our overall record is just shy of 90% in calling teams IN or OUT of the playoffs at an average of more than 90 days before the mathematical call.
The NHL as a whole is averaging 16.333 wins/about 33 points per team. That's an average winning percentage of .556.
At the same time the top eight teams in the East are averaging 19.25 wins/just over 38 points/a .631 winning percentage; the West is at a 17.5 wins/35 points/.625 winning percentage. (Note the West has played 10 less games than the East at this point.)
Projecting average points for current eighth place teams out to 82 games, the East and West would require right at 96 points for 8th place.
But It’s Not Quite That Simple
Teams, however, will not continue to play at the same pace they currently do. Every season, and just about every team, is full of peaks and valleys. So OGA produces it’s Playoff Power Projections (The P3) to attempt to determine as far out as possible how the NHL stacks up.
Since our emphasis is Non-Traditional Teams (CAR, FLA, ATL, TBL, CBJ, NSH, DAL, PHX, ANA, LAK and SJS) in this report and they cross Conference boundaries, we stack up their P3 numbers with all teams in the NHL as a whole.
As of Sunday, 12 December, The P3 looks like this (Non-Traditional Teams are in bold while other teams on eiter side of them in rank order display their P3 for reference):
DET (120.071)
PIT, PHI, BOS, and VAN
MTL (103.867)
DAL (101.79)
LAK (100.22)
WSH (99.938)
PHX and NSH (99.571)
TBL (98.4)
CBJ and STL (96.642)
SJS and COL (96.138)
ATL (95.667)
NYR (94.813)
CHI (92.581)
ANA (89.455)
MIN (84.828)
CAR (82)
BUF (76.533)
EDM (76.345)
FLA (76.143)
OTT (74.065)
CGY, TOR, NJD and NYI
So Non-Traditional Teams fall between #7 and #25 in rank order, or in the middle 2/3 of the NHL.
Drilling Down A Little Further
Here's some more specifics about our 11 Non-Traditional teams' current status:
DAL is #7 in The P3. They sit atop the Pacific Division and are currently in third place in current NHL standings. They also are not yet Chasing Stanley, but are knocking on the door with their best Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) ranking since the 2006/7 season.
The LAK are #8 behind DAL in The P3. They are currently last in the Pacific Division and sit in 10th place in the Western Conference standings, one scant win away from a Top Eight position. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at Game 19 (G19) on 21 November, and at only G27 right now, they have an opportunity to get to G30 higher in terms of PQC than any season since the Lockout at the same point in the season.
PHX and NSH follow WSH tied in The P3 at #10. For this pair, give the slight nod to PHX with 13 regulation wins to NSH’s 10. PHX currently sits in third place in the Pacific Division while NSH is the same in the Central, and they are sixth and seventh in Western Conference standings respectively. If PHX wins G29 and G30, they will eclipse their previous best at G30 since the Lockout. NSH closing out the G30 furlong with those same two wins will be at their best since 2006/7.
TBL is #12 in The P3. They are in second place in the Southeast and seventh in Eastern Conference standings. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G10 on 29 October. They hit the G30 mark barely shy of their previous best PQC from 2005/6.
CBJ is #13 in terms of The P3. They are fourth in the Central Division/11th in the Western Conference standings fighting tie breakers with two other teams. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G19 on 22 November. At only G28, they are tied with the 2009/10 version of the Blue Jackets for their best G30 start since the Stoppage.
SJS is #15 in The P3. They sit fourth in the Pacific Division and ninth in the Western Conference, tied with three other teams in tie-breakers for the final playoff position. They are off their normal mark in terms of play and will hit the G30 mark with a PQC that is only ahead of their 2005/6 season.
ATL’s P3 places them in the #17 position. They are third in the Southeast Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference with a bit of a lead over the ninth place holder. They hit the G30 mark tied with the 2009/10 version of the Thrashers for their best 30-game start since the Lockout.
ANA is #20 in The P3. Seemingly out of oblivion, they have risen to second in the Pacific Division behind a DAL tie-breaker and fourth in the Western Conference. Their play has been sporadic, and they actually hit G30 tied for their second worst start since Lockout.
CAR’s P3 rests at #22. They are fourth in the Southeast Division and ninth in the Eastern Conference. At G28, two wins to close out the G30 could place them in the best shape they have been in since 2007/8’s PQC.
And FLA is #25 in The P3. They are last in the Southeast Division and 12th in the Eastern Conference. They are pushing Tee Time, but have not yet made it to that point in their season. At G28 right now, closing out the G30 with two wins could have them barely behind their best start since the Lockout.
Rolling It Up
It is a combination of The P3 and the PQC that allows On Goal Analysis to predict as early as possible whether a team will be IN or OUT of the playoffs and their potential, final standings. While many would have you believe the Non-Traditional Teams are inferior to the rest, the 11 actually sit in the middle 2/3 of the League in terms of their 2010/11 potential with three teams OGA has called Chasing Stanley, or already poised to enter the 2011 Playoffs, and none of them have been eliminated from contention yet.
The Non-Traditional Market, which has spawned no less than four California, one Arizona and one Texas invitee to join the 2011 Team USA World Junior roster, is a force to be reckoned with.
This week’s (first) report is for games ending Sunday, 12 December 2010.
The NHL as a Whole
At OGA, we measure teams’ play against the rest of the clubs in their Conference in order to determine their probability of making (Chasing Stanley) or missing (Tee Time) the 2011 Playoffs. Since the Lockout, our overall record is just shy of 90% in calling teams IN or OUT of the playoffs at an average of more than 90 days before the mathematical call.
The NHL as a whole is averaging 16.333 wins/about 33 points per team. That's an average winning percentage of .556.
At the same time the top eight teams in the East are averaging 19.25 wins/just over 38 points/a .631 winning percentage; the West is at a 17.5 wins/35 points/.625 winning percentage. (Note the West has played 10 less games than the East at this point.)
Projecting average points for current eighth place teams out to 82 games, the East and West would require right at 96 points for 8th place.
But It’s Not Quite That Simple
Teams, however, will not continue to play at the same pace they currently do. Every season, and just about every team, is full of peaks and valleys. So OGA produces it’s Playoff Power Projections (The P3) to attempt to determine as far out as possible how the NHL stacks up.
Since our emphasis is Non-Traditional Teams (CAR, FLA, ATL, TBL, CBJ, NSH, DAL, PHX, ANA, LAK and SJS) in this report and they cross Conference boundaries, we stack up their P3 numbers with all teams in the NHL as a whole.
As of Sunday, 12 December, The P3 looks like this (Non-Traditional Teams are in bold while other teams on eiter side of them in rank order display their P3 for reference):
DET (120.071)
PIT, PHI, BOS, and VAN
MTL (103.867)
DAL (101.79)
LAK (100.22)
WSH (99.938)
PHX and NSH (99.571)
TBL (98.4)
CBJ and STL (96.642)
SJS and COL (96.138)
ATL (95.667)
NYR (94.813)
CHI (92.581)
ANA (89.455)
MIN (84.828)
CAR (82)
BUF (76.533)
EDM (76.345)
FLA (76.143)
OTT (74.065)
CGY, TOR, NJD and NYI
So Non-Traditional Teams fall between #7 and #25 in rank order, or in the middle 2/3 of the NHL.
Drilling Down A Little Further
Here's some more specifics about our 11 Non-Traditional teams' current status:
DAL is #7 in The P3. They sit atop the Pacific Division and are currently in third place in current NHL standings. They also are not yet Chasing Stanley, but are knocking on the door with their best Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) ranking since the 2006/7 season.
The LAK are #8 behind DAL in The P3. They are currently last in the Pacific Division and sit in 10th place in the Western Conference standings, one scant win away from a Top Eight position. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at Game 19 (G19) on 21 November, and at only G27 right now, they have an opportunity to get to G30 higher in terms of PQC than any season since the Lockout at the same point in the season.
PHX and NSH follow WSH tied in The P3 at #10. For this pair, give the slight nod to PHX with 13 regulation wins to NSH’s 10. PHX currently sits in third place in the Pacific Division while NSH is the same in the Central, and they are sixth and seventh in Western Conference standings respectively. If PHX wins G29 and G30, they will eclipse their previous best at G30 since the Lockout. NSH closing out the G30 furlong with those same two wins will be at their best since 2006/7.
TBL is #12 in The P3. They are in second place in the Southeast and seventh in Eastern Conference standings. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G10 on 29 October. They hit the G30 mark barely shy of their previous best PQC from 2005/6.
CBJ is #13 in terms of The P3. They are fourth in the Central Division/11th in the Western Conference standings fighting tie breakers with two other teams. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G19 on 22 November. At only G28, they are tied with the 2009/10 version of the Blue Jackets for their best G30 start since the Stoppage.
SJS is #15 in The P3. They sit fourth in the Pacific Division and ninth in the Western Conference, tied with three other teams in tie-breakers for the final playoff position. They are off their normal mark in terms of play and will hit the G30 mark with a PQC that is only ahead of their 2005/6 season.
ATL’s P3 places them in the #17 position. They are third in the Southeast Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference with a bit of a lead over the ninth place holder. They hit the G30 mark tied with the 2009/10 version of the Thrashers for their best 30-game start since the Lockout.
ANA is #20 in The P3. Seemingly out of oblivion, they have risen to second in the Pacific Division behind a DAL tie-breaker and fourth in the Western Conference. Their play has been sporadic, and they actually hit G30 tied for their second worst start since Lockout.
CAR’s P3 rests at #22. They are fourth in the Southeast Division and ninth in the Eastern Conference. At G28, two wins to close out the G30 could place them in the best shape they have been in since 2007/8’s PQC.
And FLA is #25 in The P3. They are last in the Southeast Division and 12th in the Eastern Conference. They are pushing Tee Time, but have not yet made it to that point in their season. At G28 right now, closing out the G30 with two wins could have them barely behind their best start since the Lockout.
Rolling It Up
It is a combination of The P3 and the PQC that allows On Goal Analysis to predict as early as possible whether a team will be IN or OUT of the playoffs and their potential, final standings. While many would have you believe the Non-Traditional Teams are inferior to the rest, the 11 actually sit in the middle 2/3 of the League in terms of their 2010/11 potential with three teams OGA has called Chasing Stanley, or already poised to enter the 2011 Playoffs, and none of them have been eliminated from contention yet.
The Non-Traditional Market, which has spawned no less than four California, one Arizona and one Texas invitee to join the 2011 Team USA World Junior roster, is a force to be reckoned with.
Monday, November 29, 2010
NHL at the Quarter Pole(-ish): Who's In, Who's Out
Now that the Detroit Red Wings have finally made it past the Game 20 mark AND we've finished all the Thanksgiving leftovers, it's time to look at the On Goal Analysis Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) again. Let's see which teams are now Chasing Stanley (IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs), which ones are at Tee Time (OUT of the playoffs), and which ones are neither here nor there.
Before we dive into all that, let us quickly recap OGA's calls at Game 10:
Got all that? Good - let's move on to the State of the League at Game 20:
CHASING STANLEY
New additions to this semi-exclusive club are: Philadelphia (18 NOV), Washington (19 NOV), Los Angeles (22 NOV), Boston (24 NOV), Columbus (24 NOV) and Detroit (26 NOV).
Of these calls, Columbus was the biggest surprise, but made it in with solid goaltending/team defense and timely goal scoring from the bottom two lines. The Flyers were a bit of a surprise as well, if only because nobody (outside of Flyers' management) saw rookie goalie Sergei Bobrovsky coming. Goaltending is also the story in Boston, as Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask look like the best tandem in recent memory. The Kings have a young and talented team with scoring depth. Detroit and Washington are, well, Detroit and Washington: Chock full o'talent and piling up the W's.
TEE TIME
At Game 20, these teams formally entered the battle for the top pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft: New Jersey (20 NOV), NY Islanders (21 NOV) and Edmonton (23 NOV).
The entire hockey world is still in shock at the Implosion in Newark. Much has been written about New Jersey's problems, and there's no need for another blow-by-blow account here. The Readers Digest Condensed Version is this: All-World goalie Marty Brodeur has a bum elbow, but was looking VERY human before his injury, top winger Zach Parise is out for a few months with a knee injury, and the incredibly talented Ilya Kovalchuk is skating like he's carrying $100mil (in small bills) on his back. For the first time since 1995-96, the Devils will not play in the postseason.
The Islanders, on the other hand, are unsurprising. They're a young team with some talent but no depth, and two of their top players suffered long-term injuries before the regular season began. It took a game against the Devils to end the Isles' 14-game losing streak. Wait 'til next year, Long Island.
2010-11 is another rebuilding season in Edmonton. The Oilers' most talented players are still too young to carry the load, so chalk this campaign up as a learning experience, with a shot at another top draft pick at the end. On a related note, Oil Change, airing on NHL Network, is a fascinating look at what's going on with the Oilers. Check it out.
IN THE CURVE
Everyone else.
SUMMARY/A LOOK AHEAD TO GAME 30
Through Game 20, we've called nine teams IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs - four in the Western Conference, five in the East. Three more teams are now OUT of the playoffs - one Western, two Eastern. That means the fates of eighteen teams have yet to be decided.
By Game 30, we should see one more team called Chasing Stanley in the East, which will leave just two open playoff slots for the remaining clubs to battle over. Also in the East, at least two teams are in grave danger of reaching Tee Time before Christmas.
In the West, an extended hot streak could get one more team into the playoffs by Game 30, while a couple of clubs will need to get in gear just to avoid joining Edmonton at Tee Time.
Check back here for team status updates. As OGA knows, so will you.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Before we dive into all that, let us quickly recap OGA's calls at Game 10:
Chasing Stanley: Montreal, Tampa Bay and St. Louis.
Tee Time: None.
In The Curve: Everyone else.
Got all that? Good - let's move on to the State of the League at Game 20:
CHASING STANLEY
New additions to this semi-exclusive club are: Philadelphia (18 NOV), Washington (19 NOV), Los Angeles (22 NOV), Boston (24 NOV), Columbus (24 NOV) and Detroit (26 NOV).
Of these calls, Columbus was the biggest surprise, but made it in with solid goaltending/team defense and timely goal scoring from the bottom two lines. The Flyers were a bit of a surprise as well, if only because nobody (outside of Flyers' management) saw rookie goalie Sergei Bobrovsky coming. Goaltending is also the story in Boston, as Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask look like the best tandem in recent memory. The Kings have a young and talented team with scoring depth. Detroit and Washington are, well, Detroit and Washington: Chock full o'talent and piling up the W's.
TEE TIME
At Game 20, these teams formally entered the battle for the top pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft: New Jersey (20 NOV), NY Islanders (21 NOV) and Edmonton (23 NOV).
The entire hockey world is still in shock at the Implosion in Newark. Much has been written about New Jersey's problems, and there's no need for another blow-by-blow account here. The Readers Digest Condensed Version is this: All-World goalie Marty Brodeur has a bum elbow, but was looking VERY human before his injury, top winger Zach Parise is out for a few months with a knee injury, and the incredibly talented Ilya Kovalchuk is skating like he's carrying $100mil (in small bills) on his back. For the first time since 1995-96, the Devils will not play in the postseason.
The Islanders, on the other hand, are unsurprising. They're a young team with some talent but no depth, and two of their top players suffered long-term injuries before the regular season began. It took a game against the Devils to end the Isles' 14-game losing streak. Wait 'til next year, Long Island.
2010-11 is another rebuilding season in Edmonton. The Oilers' most talented players are still too young to carry the load, so chalk this campaign up as a learning experience, with a shot at another top draft pick at the end. On a related note, Oil Change, airing on NHL Network, is a fascinating look at what's going on with the Oilers. Check it out.
IN THE CURVE
Everyone else.
SUMMARY/A LOOK AHEAD TO GAME 30
Through Game 20, we've called nine teams IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs - four in the Western Conference, five in the East. Three more teams are now OUT of the playoffs - one Western, two Eastern. That means the fates of eighteen teams have yet to be decided.
By Game 30, we should see one more team called Chasing Stanley in the East, which will leave just two open playoff slots for the remaining clubs to battle over. Also in the East, at least two teams are in grave danger of reaching Tee Time before Christmas.
In the West, an extended hot streak could get one more team into the playoffs by Game 30, while a couple of clubs will need to get in gear just to avoid joining Edmonton at Tee Time.
Check back here for team status updates. As OGA knows, so will you.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Friday, November 26, 2010
When Do Playoff Tickets Go On Sale, Columbus?
Here's a sentence I didn't expect to write at any point this season (or next, for that matter):
Shocking. The Blue Jackets weren't supposed to be this good - not with a new coach installing a new system, a suspect blueline, a suspect goalie and only one scoring line. In a division featuring the defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Hated Red Wings, the new and improved Blues (now with HALAK!) and the perennial playoff-bound Predators, Columbus was picked to finish dead last by virtually everyone, including the entire Puck Daddy staff.
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Blue Jackets did little to prove the prognosticators wrong. After opening the season in front of sparse crowds in Stockholm, they came home and, in front of sparse crowds at Nationwide Arena, served up a 5-2 stinker against Chicago and a 6-2 loss to Calgary. The loss to the Flames prompted Yours Truly to coin the term, "...burning bowel movement of a game..."
The Blue Jackets hit rock-bottom that night against Calgary. From there, they easily could've gone the way of the Islanders and Devils, imploding and playing for the 2011 Draft Lottery Championship. Instead, the Jackets pulled together, compiling a post-Flames-loss record of 11-3-0, including a franchise-first sweep of California (wins at Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose on the same road trip).
Those eleven wins include four shutouts - three from offseason acquisition Mathieu Garon, one from Goalie of the Present and Future Steve Mason. Like the team as a whole, Mason had a shaky start to the season, but continues to improve with every game. Apparently, nothing lights a fire under a goalie like a red-hot backup...and the "suspect" blueline has been surprisingly solid in their own end.
Curiously, Columbus is scoring with alacrity despite the absence of playmaker Kristian Huselius, out for 13 games and counting with a high ankle sprain, and despite a lack (until recently) of production from the second line of Filatov-Vermette-Umberger. The enigmatic Filatov is still searching for his first goal of the season, but his overall game is improving, so it's only a matter of time.
The chemistry of the Nash-Brassard-Voracek line has been key. Since Nash was swapped for Filatov on this line, both Brassard and Voracek have been energized. Brassard, in particular, is playing with high confidence and a smile on his face, both of which were missing last season.
Contributions from the third and fourth lines cannot be overlooked, as the likes of Chris Clark, Kyle Wilson, Derek Dorsett and Jared Boll have picked up the scoring slack for the second line.
In light of the Jackets' 12-6-2 start to the 2009-2010 season, which was followed by 62 games of painful ugliness, many have tempered their enthusiasm by adopting a perfectly understandable wait-and-see approach to this season. Here at OGA, however, we're officially calling the Columbus Blue Jackets IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as of 25 November. This is not last season's team. Rather than battling against their coach, the 2010-2011 Jackets are battling for their coach, as well as for each other. They're gaining strength and confidence daily. The fact that Columbus plays Detroit tonight for first place in the Western Conference, while surprising, is no fluke. When do playoff tickets go on sale, Columbus?
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Tonight, the Columbus Blue Jackets do battle with the Detroit Red Wings for first place in the Western Conference.
Shocking. The Blue Jackets weren't supposed to be this good - not with a new coach installing a new system, a suspect blueline, a suspect goalie and only one scoring line. In a division featuring the defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Hated Red Wings, the new and improved Blues (now with HALAK!) and the perennial playoff-bound Predators, Columbus was picked to finish dead last by virtually everyone, including the entire Puck Daddy staff.
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Blue Jackets did little to prove the prognosticators wrong. After opening the season in front of sparse crowds in Stockholm, they came home and, in front of sparse crowds at Nationwide Arena, served up a 5-2 stinker against Chicago and a 6-2 loss to Calgary. The loss to the Flames prompted Yours Truly to coin the term, "...burning bowel movement of a game..."
The Blue Jackets hit rock-bottom that night against Calgary. From there, they easily could've gone the way of the Islanders and Devils, imploding and playing for the 2011 Draft Lottery Championship. Instead, the Jackets pulled together, compiling a post-Flames-loss record of 11-3-0, including a franchise-first sweep of California (wins at Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose on the same road trip).
Those eleven wins include four shutouts - three from offseason acquisition Mathieu Garon, one from Goalie of the Present and Future Steve Mason. Like the team as a whole, Mason had a shaky start to the season, but continues to improve with every game. Apparently, nothing lights a fire under a goalie like a red-hot backup...and the "suspect" blueline has been surprisingly solid in their own end.
Curiously, Columbus is scoring with alacrity despite the absence of playmaker Kristian Huselius, out for 13 games and counting with a high ankle sprain, and despite a lack (until recently) of production from the second line of Filatov-Vermette-Umberger. The enigmatic Filatov is still searching for his first goal of the season, but his overall game is improving, so it's only a matter of time.
The chemistry of the Nash-Brassard-Voracek line has been key. Since Nash was swapped for Filatov on this line, both Brassard and Voracek have been energized. Brassard, in particular, is playing with high confidence and a smile on his face, both of which were missing last season.
Contributions from the third and fourth lines cannot be overlooked, as the likes of Chris Clark, Kyle Wilson, Derek Dorsett and Jared Boll have picked up the scoring slack for the second line.
In light of the Jackets' 12-6-2 start to the 2009-2010 season, which was followed by 62 games of painful ugliness, many have tempered their enthusiasm by adopting a perfectly understandable wait-and-see approach to this season. Here at OGA, however, we're officially calling the Columbus Blue Jackets IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as of 25 November. This is not last season's team. Rather than battling against their coach, the 2010-2011 Jackets are battling for their coach, as well as for each other. They're gaining strength and confidence daily. The fact that Columbus plays Detroit tonight for first place in the Western Conference, while surprising, is no fluke. When do playoff tickets go on sale, Columbus?
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Feast and Famine in the NHL: Hat Tricks and Shutouts on the Rise
While the first six weeks of the 2010-2011 NHL season has produced a number of compelling storylines, such as the emergence of Steven Stamkos as an elite (Crosby/Ovechkin level) player, the implosion of the New Jersey Devils and the Colin Campbell email controversy, the most intriguing theme to date is the dramatic rise in both hat tricks and shutouts.
MAD HATTERS:
Through Thursday night's action, 24 hat tricks have been recorded in the NHL. With 273 games in the books, that's an average of one hatter every 11.38 games. If this pace is maintained, the NHL will see an impressive 108 hat tricks this season. That's an astounding 47.9% increase over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which 73 hat tricks were scored. For added perspective, consider this: The free-wheeling 1987-1988 season, with Lemieux and Gretzky in their prime, saw 113 hat tricks recorded, while the 1998-1999 season, at the height of the "dead puck" era, chalked up just 56.
More interesting facts: The 3+ goal games are divided almost evenly, with 13 for Eastern Conference snipers and 11 for the West. Also, teams on the receiving end are fairly even, as 13 hatters have been against Eastern clubs, with 11 vs. the West. Perhaps most intriguing is the tendency to "keep it in the Conference," as 9 of 11 Western Conference hat tricks have been scored against other Western Conference clubs. Of the 13 Eastern Conference hat tricks, 11 were scored against Eastern teams.
CLEAN SLATES:
At the opposite end of the spectrum, NHL goalies have recorded 38 shutouts through 273 games this season. At an average of one every 7.18 games, that's an increase of 9.6% over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which shutouts came once every 7.94 games.
Shutouts are split right down the middle, with 19 each for Eastern and Western Conference goalies. A dramatic disparity is seen, however, in the victims of shutouts: 24, or 63.2%, have come against Eastern clubs, while only 14 (36.8%) have been against the West. This is due in part to the Western Conference's 41-21-9 record vs. Eastern teams. While just 4 of 19 shutouts by Eastern goalies came against Western teams, Western goalies racked up 9 of 19 shutouts against the East.
CONCLUSION:
An increase in hat tricks would seem to indicate a league-wide increase in scoring, while an increase in shutouts seems to indicate the opposite. What's going on? Scoring is up only slightly over last season (5.65 goals/game in 2010-2011 vs. 5.53 in 2009-2010), so the answer must lie elsewhere.
My theory is this: The combination of cap issues (in Chicago and New Jersey, among others) and injuries (in Colorado and St. Louis, among others) has caused an influx of not-ready-for-primetime skaters from the AHL and major junior leagues. The large number of relatively inexperienced players on the ice has resulted in higher-quality scoring chances across the league, which snipers (Stamkos, Semin, et al), savvy veterans (Ed Jovanovski, Raffi Torres) and even a few talented youngsters (Derek Stepan, Chris Stewart) have exploited.
On the flip side, those very same inexperienced players have struggled mightily to score against clubs with solid goaltending and good team defense. Boston, St. Louis and Montreal (combined) own 12 of 38 shutouts in the NHL this season. The Bruins and Habs are ranked 1-2 in team Goals Against Average (1.76 and 2.05, respectively), and the Blues were in the top three until a rash of injuries brought on their recent defensive struggles.
Curse the salary cap and injuries all you want, but they're making the 2010-2011 NHL season one to remember.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
MAD HATTERS:
Through Thursday night's action, 24 hat tricks have been recorded in the NHL. With 273 games in the books, that's an average of one hatter every 11.38 games. If this pace is maintained, the NHL will see an impressive 108 hat tricks this season. That's an astounding 47.9% increase over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which 73 hat tricks were scored. For added perspective, consider this: The free-wheeling 1987-1988 season, with Lemieux and Gretzky in their prime, saw 113 hat tricks recorded, while the 1998-1999 season, at the height of the "dead puck" era, chalked up just 56.
More interesting facts: The 3+ goal games are divided almost evenly, with 13 for Eastern Conference snipers and 11 for the West. Also, teams on the receiving end are fairly even, as 13 hatters have been against Eastern clubs, with 11 vs. the West. Perhaps most intriguing is the tendency to "keep it in the Conference," as 9 of 11 Western Conference hat tricks have been scored against other Western Conference clubs. Of the 13 Eastern Conference hat tricks, 11 were scored against Eastern teams.
CLEAN SLATES:
At the opposite end of the spectrum, NHL goalies have recorded 38 shutouts through 273 games this season. At an average of one every 7.18 games, that's an increase of 9.6% over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which shutouts came once every 7.94 games.
Shutouts are split right down the middle, with 19 each for Eastern and Western Conference goalies. A dramatic disparity is seen, however, in the victims of shutouts: 24, or 63.2%, have come against Eastern clubs, while only 14 (36.8%) have been against the West. This is due in part to the Western Conference's 41-21-9 record vs. Eastern teams. While just 4 of 19 shutouts by Eastern goalies came against Western teams, Western goalies racked up 9 of 19 shutouts against the East.
CONCLUSION:
An increase in hat tricks would seem to indicate a league-wide increase in scoring, while an increase in shutouts seems to indicate the opposite. What's going on? Scoring is up only slightly over last season (5.65 goals/game in 2010-2011 vs. 5.53 in 2009-2010), so the answer must lie elsewhere.
My theory is this: The combination of cap issues (in Chicago and New Jersey, among others) and injuries (in Colorado and St. Louis, among others) has caused an influx of not-ready-for-primetime skaters from the AHL and major junior leagues. The large number of relatively inexperienced players on the ice has resulted in higher-quality scoring chances across the league, which snipers (Stamkos, Semin, et al), savvy veterans (Ed Jovanovski, Raffi Torres) and even a few talented youngsters (Derek Stepan, Chris Stewart) have exploited.
On the flip side, those very same inexperienced players have struggled mightily to score against clubs with solid goaltending and good team defense. Boston, St. Louis and Montreal (combined) own 12 of 38 shutouts in the NHL this season. The Bruins and Habs are ranked 1-2 in team Goals Against Average (1.76 and 2.05, respectively), and the Blues were in the top three until a rash of injuries brought on their recent defensive struggles.
Curse the salary cap and injuries all you want, but they're making the 2010-2011 NHL season one to remember.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
NHL Overtime on VERSUS: Wysh's Wants and More
I was fully prepared to write a thorough critique of NHL Overtime, VERSUS' new hockey analysis show, but it seems a certain blogger who never sleeps beat me to it. Thus, I'll just point out my agreements and disagreements with Mr. Wyshynski, and add a thought or two of my own.
AGREEMENTS:
1. Dump The Desk, Ditch The Suits. Wysh is right: Put the talking heads in a more comfortable, casual environment, and let the conversation flow. This show should be a hockey-centric BOGSAT - a Bunch Of Guys Sitting Around Talking about hockey. Taking it a step further, as a viewer, I'd like the ability to text or email questions and have them answered on air. Get current and former players, coaches and management-types on the show, and get them to open up. Last night, for example, while Bill Patrick, Billy Jaffe and Bill Guerin were discussing Scott Gordon's dismissal by the Islanders, I would've loved to ask Guerin, "Bill, you played for the Islanders from 2007-09. Is this organization any less screwed up now than it was when you were there?"
2. Reinvent the highlights. Again, what Wysh said. I thought the first show was too highlight-heavy and analysis-light. If you're going to show highlights, break down a specific play. Don't give us what we can get on Hockey Central or NHL On The Fly. Again, using last night's show as an example, they could've shown Henrik Lundqvist breaking his stick, throwing it, and drawing an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty after allowing two goals in 38 seconds, then analyzed the questionable officiating which contributed to King Henrik's outburst...or debated pros and cons of Lundqvist losing his cool...or both.
4. More News, More Up-To-Date News, And More News We Care About. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but...what Wysh said. How can you NOT talk about Colin Campbell's emails? What does Bill Guerin (or better yet, any recently-retired player) think about the "NHL Wheel of Justice"? (really, I'm talking about the NHL's seemingly capricious method of enforcement here, but DGB's flowchart is pure genius) Among other things, I want controversy. I want to know how many players agree with the statement, "NHL officiating is the worst in professional sports". I want to know, if the players voted, would Nick Lidstrom have won all those Norris Trophies? I want discussion and debate of current hockey events which mirrors the intensity and passion of The Great Game itself.
5. Keep Going "On Location". I would've liked a glimpse inside the Rangers' locker room after their come-from-behind OT win last night. Based on Jim Cerny's Tweets, it was quite a scene. Gimme somma dat, VERSUS.
DISAGREEMENTS:
3. Either Drop The Rundown or Steal From ESPN. Un momento, Señor Wyshynski - structuring a hockey show in a three-period format is tragically unhip? I beg to differ, sir. All the best Blog Talk Radio shows featuring guys Jabbering about Hockey use this format.
JURY STILL OUT:
6. Finally, Give Us Copious Amounts of Billy Jaffe. I'll have to see more of Mr. Jaffe before passing judgment. While I liked his energy, he did trip over his tongue a few times. Maybe it was first-night jitters. Time will tell.
BIG TEX'S TAKE:
Along with fewer highlights, more analysis and a more relaxed setting, how about throwing in some college and major junior hockey talk? Maybe pick one Top Prospect for the 2011 Draft each night, show some of his highlights and discuss which of the current NHL bottom-dwellers needs him most? Along the same lines, looking at some of the top AHLers would give fans a glimpse of the future of their franchise. Last, but not least, a smattering of fantasy hockey talk wouldn't hurt. After all, the majority of people who will stay up until midnight Eastern to watch NHL Overtime have at least one fantasy team. Give 'em a good tip or two for players to start (or bench) for tomorrow nights' games.
Of greater importance than the content of the show, the Monday night premiere of NHL Overtime on VERSUS sent a message: NHL, VERSUS loves you with all its' corporate heart, and wants you back next year. And the next. And the year after that. Do you think ESPN would put an hour-long NHL show on The Mothership four days a week? Winged monkeys exiting Gary Bettman's rectum comes to mind.
While some will argue in favor of ESPN's higher profile (roughly 26 million more viewers than VERSUS), I recall well their treatment of the NHL during the last few years of that TV contract. Remember the "less is more" fable, when ESPN cut the number of games broadcast, and shunted most of those off to ESPN2? Given the option of broadcasting NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL games, The Leader In Sports will always choose the NHL last. ALWAYS. Better the NHL should remain a big fish in a small pond, particularly since that pond is growing.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
AGREEMENTS:
1. Dump The Desk, Ditch The Suits. Wysh is right: Put the talking heads in a more comfortable, casual environment, and let the conversation flow. This show should be a hockey-centric BOGSAT - a Bunch Of Guys Sitting Around Talking about hockey. Taking it a step further, as a viewer, I'd like the ability to text or email questions and have them answered on air. Get current and former players, coaches and management-types on the show, and get them to open up. Last night, for example, while Bill Patrick, Billy Jaffe and Bill Guerin were discussing Scott Gordon's dismissal by the Islanders, I would've loved to ask Guerin, "Bill, you played for the Islanders from 2007-09. Is this organization any less screwed up now than it was when you were there?"
2. Reinvent the highlights. Again, what Wysh said. I thought the first show was too highlight-heavy and analysis-light. If you're going to show highlights, break down a specific play. Don't give us what we can get on Hockey Central or NHL On The Fly. Again, using last night's show as an example, they could've shown Henrik Lundqvist breaking his stick, throwing it, and drawing an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty after allowing two goals in 38 seconds, then analyzed the questionable officiating which contributed to King Henrik's outburst...or debated pros and cons of Lundqvist losing his cool...or both.
4. More News, More Up-To-Date News, And More News We Care About. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but...what Wysh said. How can you NOT talk about Colin Campbell's emails? What does Bill Guerin (or better yet, any recently-retired player) think about the "NHL Wheel of Justice"? (really, I'm talking about the NHL's seemingly capricious method of enforcement here, but DGB's flowchart is pure genius) Among other things, I want controversy. I want to know how many players agree with the statement, "NHL officiating is the worst in professional sports". I want to know, if the players voted, would Nick Lidstrom have won all those Norris Trophies? I want discussion and debate of current hockey events which mirrors the intensity and passion of The Great Game itself.
5. Keep Going "On Location". I would've liked a glimpse inside the Rangers' locker room after their come-from-behind OT win last night. Based on Jim Cerny's Tweets, it was quite a scene. Gimme somma dat, VERSUS.
DISAGREEMENTS:
3. Either Drop The Rundown or Steal From ESPN. Un momento, Señor Wyshynski - structuring a hockey show in a three-period format is tragically unhip? I beg to differ, sir. All the best Blog Talk Radio shows featuring guys Jabbering about Hockey use this format.
JURY STILL OUT:
6. Finally, Give Us Copious Amounts of Billy Jaffe. I'll have to see more of Mr. Jaffe before passing judgment. While I liked his energy, he did trip over his tongue a few times. Maybe it was first-night jitters. Time will tell.
BIG TEX'S TAKE:
Along with fewer highlights, more analysis and a more relaxed setting, how about throwing in some college and major junior hockey talk? Maybe pick one Top Prospect for the 2011 Draft each night, show some of his highlights and discuss which of the current NHL bottom-dwellers needs him most? Along the same lines, looking at some of the top AHLers would give fans a glimpse of the future of their franchise. Last, but not least, a smattering of fantasy hockey talk wouldn't hurt. After all, the majority of people who will stay up until midnight Eastern to watch NHL Overtime have at least one fantasy team. Give 'em a good tip or two for players to start (or bench) for tomorrow nights' games.
Of greater importance than the content of the show, the Monday night premiere of NHL Overtime on VERSUS sent a message: NHL, VERSUS loves you with all its' corporate heart, and wants you back next year. And the next. And the year after that. Do you think ESPN would put an hour-long NHL show on The Mothership four days a week? Winged monkeys exiting Gary Bettman's rectum comes to mind.
While some will argue in favor of ESPN's higher profile (roughly 26 million more viewers than VERSUS), I recall well their treatment of the NHL during the last few years of that TV contract. Remember the "less is more" fable, when ESPN cut the number of games broadcast, and shunted most of those off to ESPN2? Given the option of broadcasting NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL games, The Leader In Sports will always choose the NHL last. ALWAYS. Better the NHL should remain a big fish in a small pond, particularly since that pond is growing.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
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