Thursday, April 2nd finds you recovering from tasty pranks brought to you by the Fool on the First. But if you are set to attend the match-up between two Eastern Conference, Playoff-bound, Atlantic Seaboard hockey clubs at the RBC Center (NY Rangers @ Carolina), you will be rewarded with the most-appropriate of gifts - the Cam Ward bobblehead.
Will someone in NC please snag one of these gems for the Frozen Pill? Post a comment below the post w/your email addy if you are so inclined and gift-oriented, and I'll shoot you a mailing address.
For the love of all that is glorious netminding, I hope they incorporate a two-dimensional 'bob' on this bad boy. Not only the standard up and down, but a side-to-side bobble is required to capture the true likeness of the re-emerging greatness of head-on-a-swivel, Cam Ward.
Say it with me - "Goalie Cam". This shall, henceforth, forthwith be yon new designation in the heart of Hurricane country to redefine the term:
GOALIE-CAM.
He sees the puck, the picture is clear, no need for review. It's captured with the Goalie Cam.
The NHL named Ward the 3rd Star of the week for the period ending March 29th. Posting a 3-0-0 record with a 1.33GAA (.935 save percentage) in wins against FLA, OTT and NJD, it marks the 4th time in the 2008/09 NHL season Cam Ward has been named one of the NHL's 3 Stars of the week. He was named the first star the week prior (March 22nd).
Just a few short weeks ago, On Goal Analysis was closely monitoring the Carolina Hurricanes' play to evaluate their performance against our Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) -would they snag that elusive, remaining playoff berth in our IN/OUT calls for the East? Or would they continue to ride the line along the Curve, flirting with the 'Sharpen Skates' designation (just shy of an OGA IN Call) or would they remain In the Curve?
But the 'Canes worked a little trade-deadline magic to swippy-swap around and bring Erik Cole back into the fold - rescuing him from the wild North of EdmonFun - returning the prodigal son to the path of the Hurricane. In the meantime, GOALIE-CAM was constructing his own Category 5 safe house in the net and the Hurricanes, unlike the previous couple seasons, found themselves with a relatively healthy team.
Since early February, Ward has started all of the Hurricanes' previous 24 games going 16-6-2 with a 2.31GAA. The Hurricanes, as a result, have climbed from 'just out of playoff contention' to their current home in the 5th seed with 91 points.
Of course, teams in the East are still jockeying for position with the 8th seed (currently Montreal) sitting at 88 points. But compared to our analysis of team play against the PQC, OGA believes the Carolina Hurricanes have done the work, fought the scoring slumps and hung in there in tough games just enough throughout the earlier and middle parts of the season to ride the momentum they have created for themselves.
A Hurricane often grows in strength as it approaches the point of impact. And for this season, it appears Carolina has secured a date for the Chase of Lord Stanley's Cup.
Didn't see it coming? Should have payed closer attention to the Goalie Cam.
So, please, I beg of thee, residents of the Raleigh-Durham area, somebody score me one of them Cam Ward Bobbleheads. I'd like to conduct a little experiment with how it behaves, stationed on top of my televsion when the 'Canes get a chance to take on those beloved Caps in the second round of the playoffs.
I'll use thermal imaging, like the Ghost Hunters do, to monitor suspicious bobbles during play (when no obvious breeze is present) and post the video on the home page at www.ongoalanalysis.com. Just like in 2006, me wonders if the Eastern race towards the Cup Finals might not be haunted again by the likes of (then-rookie), Conn Smythe-winning MVP, Ward who seems to be gaining strength with each passing game. Watch for it on the Goalie-Cam...
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Tuesday, March 31, 2009
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Why isn't Nat Geo Filming Western Playoff Hunt?
The fine folks at National Geographic are always jetting off to exotic, distant locales to film wildlife in it's natural habitat. In these tough economic times, however, shouldn't they be looking closer to home for examples of wild animals in action? Case in point: This season's Western Conference Playoff Hunt. As of this morning, a mere six points separate 6th place Columbus from 11th place Minnesota. That's six teams, separated by six points, fighting for three playoff berths. If that doesn't call to mind images of a pack of wild jackals fighting over a kill, nothing will. Take a look at the picture below. Is this St. Louis, Columbus and Nashville, or Columbus, Nashville and St. Louis? You be the judge:
This is what happens when there isn't enough food (or in this case, playoff berths) to go around. After dropping two big games to St. Louis over the weekend, tonight Columbus will look to pounce on an injury-weakened Nashville squad, while the Predators - minus Martin Erat, David Legwand, Jason Arnott, Ryan Jones and Wade Belak - will fight desperately to avoid becoming prey. Both teams need two points tonight, but that's not going to happen.
Two other games with Western playoff implications:
Vancouver at Minnesota (8:00pm ET) - Simply put, this is a must-win for the Wild, but not for the Canucks. Anything less than a Minnesota win will virtually doom their dwindling playoff hopes. Come on, B.G.O. (Backstrom Gaborik Overdrive)!
Anaheim at Edmonton (9:30pm ET) - Edmonton is only in slightly better shape than Minnesota, standings-wise, so a W at home would both slow a red-hot Ducks team and vault the Oilers over the Ducks and into a virtual tie with St. Louis for 8th. A win for Anaheim, on the other hand, puts them ahead of St. Louis.
Six jackals, and there's only enough food for three: That's what the Western Conference playoff hunt has become. Message to National Geographic: It's not too late to get some primo footage for your next documentary!
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This is what happens when there isn't enough food (or in this case, playoff berths) to go around. After dropping two big games to St. Louis over the weekend, tonight Columbus will look to pounce on an injury-weakened Nashville squad, while the Predators - minus Martin Erat, David Legwand, Jason Arnott, Ryan Jones and Wade Belak - will fight desperately to avoid becoming prey. Both teams need two points tonight, but that's not going to happen.
Two other games with Western playoff implications:
Vancouver at Minnesota (8:00pm ET) - Simply put, this is a must-win for the Wild, but not for the Canucks. Anything less than a Minnesota win will virtually doom their dwindling playoff hopes. Come on, B.G.O. (Backstrom Gaborik Overdrive)!
Anaheim at Edmonton (9:30pm ET) - Edmonton is only in slightly better shape than Minnesota, standings-wise, so a W at home would both slow a red-hot Ducks team and vault the Oilers over the Ducks and into a virtual tie with St. Louis for 8th. A win for Anaheim, on the other hand, puts them ahead of St. Louis.
Six jackals, and there's only enough food for three: That's what the Western Conference playoff hunt has become. Message to National Geographic: It's not too late to get some primo footage for your next documentary!
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Monday, March 30, 2009
How Does It Look, Really? (Part West)
It is Monday, 30 March and closer to season’s end than on Saturday when we said this would be posted one day later (see “How Does It Look, Really? (Part East)” here). It took extra time because this post-season is likely to introduce new organizations this year that are beyond the group of 10 who have been one of the Western Playoff teams since the Lockout. This is, of course, great for NHL fans because it is giving teams, fans, cities, the League, etc., etc. high drama each and every night as we close in on 82. You see, the Western Conference is a big, prickly thorn in the side of any prognosticator’s noggin.
So how does THIS group of teams look as of Monday morning against their post-Lockout average? As on Saturday, we will look at each team as they stand in the hunt for Stanley this season. Again, our numbers for each team are in relation to total Wins, and two OTLs equal one ‘W.’ Here is a look – with a suspicious, jaundiced eye – at the West…
The Western Conference
ANAHEIM – Case #1 of thorn in paw rests right here before we alphabetically proceed past “A”. Currently, the DUCKS have 41 Wins. Last year at this point they had 48. Their best season at this point was 2006/7 (the year they won THE Cup) when they had 52 Wins. This season, however, OGA called them at Tee Time – OUT of the Playoffs – on 18 February 2009. From Game 31-60, their play has been at or below .500 Hockey which, combined with their slow start, has combined to cause them the kind of problems that could see them at home in front of the HD TV after April 11th. There’s just one, small problem… They, like NASHVILLE and ST. LOUIS, have become resilient of late and are threatening to slide in the Playoff door before it shuts.
CALGARY – Right now, they possess 46 Wins. Last year they were at 45 Wins. In 2006/7, they were holding 47 wins, so this is all just about normal for the FLAMES. OGA called them Chasing Stanley – IN of the Playoffs – on 3 January 2009. One more win between now and 11 April should seal the deal although it would harm their confidence going into the Playoffs.
CHICAGO – CONGRATULATIONS, WINDY CITY! Holding 45.5 Wins, this is their best season since the Lockout by an average improvement of 28.2%. With an end-of-season surge, they were at 40 Wins this time last season. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 22 November. They have been pretty solidly set in the #3 or #4 seed for weeks now, and will make their first Playoff appearance since the 2001-2002 season.
COLORADO – Currently holding an un-Avalanche-like 32 Wins, last season they had 45 which was their best effort since the Lockout. This injury-riddled crew was called at Tee Time by OGA on 27 January 2009. Reinforcing a pattern since the Lockout, they will miss the post-season this year for an in-one-and-out-the-other performance.
COLUMBUS – As with Chicago, congratulations are in order. The ‘JACKETS’ 43 Wins stand as their best performance since the Lockout and will see them in post-season play for the first time in franchise history. Last year they held 39.5 Wins at this point but were not in contention due to the strong play of the teams to their front. Just how far they can go on the hot glove and paddle of Steve Mason is history yet to be written.
DALLAS – Right now at 37.5 Wins, injuries to key personnel and the confusion that was Sean Avery in the Stars’ locker room have sunk this team’s battleship. Their previous best was 2005/6 where they sported 50.5 Wins at this point in the season. But OGA called them at Tee Time on 21 March. This season was undone in Games 11-20 when they only provided 3-in-10 Wins and Game 61-70 when they went 4.5-for-10. That, ladies and gentlemen, is all it takes, most especially when the West sits so close upon each other at the 7th – 11th positions.
DETROIT – Right now they have 53.5 Wins. Last year was their best at this point with 56.5 Wins. ‘Yawn’ – they were called Chasing Stanley by OGA on 29 October 2008 and have won 6.5 of their last 10 games. Are they not a little boring at this point in the season? It seems to non-Red Wing fans that they are at their most exciting once mid-April arrives. The interesting thing to watch at this point is whether or not they get through the second round of the 2009 Playoffs, the traditional time finalists from the previous season are knocked off.
EDMONTON – Still in the Playoff hunt with 40.5 Wins, they are not being helped by dropping four of their last five tilts. At this time last year they had 42 W’s, their best effort in both 2007/8 and their Stanley Cup Finals year in 2005/6. OGA has neither called them IN nor OUT of the Playoffs yet as they continue to battle with NASHVILLE, ST. LOUIS and ANAHEIM for the final Western Conference Playoff berths. Overall, this team has only played about 1.5 games below the average required to qualify for the Playoffs. They need to make up those W’s in order to render the PREDS, BLUES and DUCKS moot.
LOS ANGELES – This is a character team with its 36.5 Wins so far this season. This effort has only been surpassed by their 2005/6 season where at this moment in time they had earned 40.5 W’s. A total of 3.5 Wins in their first 10 games and only 4.5 in the Game 61-70 timeframe are the reason we are not talking about their battle for one of the remaining Playoff positions out West. But make no mistake – this team is being grown the hard, long way which will pay off in the next few years.
MINNESOTA – Believe it or not, with 40 Wins this team is in grave danger of losing their Playoff berth. Last year, they had 45.5 W’s, proving injuries to key, franchise players in relation to Capology hurts an entire team. Their best season was 2006/7 when they had 49 Wins but only went on to lose in five games to ANAHEIM in Round 1 of the Playoffs. As is usually the case, the WILD started off a House On Fire, winning 7.5 of their first 10 games and were called as Chasing Stanley on 1 November 2008. But games 21-30 and 61-70 have almost ended their season. They must reach down deep and find a way to be almost perfect the rest of the way to 82 or they are done.
NASHVILLE – “…I will not go quietly into the night…” is this team’s clarion call. Currently an injury-riddled, character driven 42 Wins, this is the lowest number of W’s they have had at this point in any season since the Lockout, but probably their most proud tally. Last year they held 43 Wins at this point, but their best was 52.5 in 2006/7. OGA called them at Tee Time on 6 January 2009, and they are doing everything in their power to have that call ring as a Shot Off The Post, or an incorrect call by OGA.
PHOENIX – This team only has 34.5 Wins and hung in the race for the post-season through Game 50. This time last year, they had 40 W’s which was their best since the Lockout. But a rough Game 11-20 and 51-60 where they only won 7-of-20 games was their undoing. It did not help losing seven games on top of those losses from Game 61-70. OGA called them at Tee Time on 12 February 2009.
SAN JOSE – As of Sunday night, they sat at a league-leading 54.5 Wins, their best since the Lockout. It took until the Game 61-70 period for injuries and other team preparation to catch up to this club where they “only” won 4.5-out-of-10. At this time last year, they had earned 52 Wins. They tend to finish the season strongly with an average of 9.17 Wins in their final 12 games. OGA called them at Chasing Stanley on 28 October 2008. Couple that with the projected return of their injured and this team is most likely to go deep into the Playoffs.
ST. LOUIS – This team has 41.5 Wins, their best since the Lockout and a reason why, despite OGA’s call of Tee Time on 16 December 2008, this team is threatening to earn their first Playoff berth since the 2003/4 post-season. This time last season, they sported 37 Wins but were not in contention because NASHVILLE, the 8th seed, had six more. They must continue to put out the ‘W,’ and it is a distinct possibility.
VANCOUVER – A solid 45.5 Wins, this team has recovered from key injuries and only 3 Wins in the Game 50 period to pull of 16.5 from Game 51-70. Last year they held 43 Wins at this point. Their best season was 2006/7 where they carried their total of 50.5 Wins into a second-Round loss to eventual Stanley Cup winning DUCKS. One man does not make a team in and of themselves, but this team feeds collectively off of the likes of Luongo, Sundin and the Sedin twins to name a few. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 20 November 2008 and is glad they stood their ground with this call.
Keep watching this Conference, however, as the winningest teams are in the lower half of the standings – it remains to be seen who from that group advances and whether or not they are doing so well because they just hit their rhythm, or they are expending all their energy just to make it to mid-April.
So how does THIS group of teams look as of Monday morning against their post-Lockout average? As on Saturday, we will look at each team as they stand in the hunt for Stanley this season. Again, our numbers for each team are in relation to total Wins, and two OTLs equal one ‘W.’ Here is a look – with a suspicious, jaundiced eye – at the West…
The Western Conference
ANAHEIM – Case #1 of thorn in paw rests right here before we alphabetically proceed past “A”. Currently, the DUCKS have 41 Wins. Last year at this point they had 48. Their best season at this point was 2006/7 (the year they won THE Cup) when they had 52 Wins. This season, however, OGA called them at Tee Time – OUT of the Playoffs – on 18 February 2009. From Game 31-60, their play has been at or below .500 Hockey which, combined with their slow start, has combined to cause them the kind of problems that could see them at home in front of the HD TV after April 11th. There’s just one, small problem… They, like NASHVILLE and ST. LOUIS, have become resilient of late and are threatening to slide in the Playoff door before it shuts.
CALGARY – Right now, they possess 46 Wins. Last year they were at 45 Wins. In 2006/7, they were holding 47 wins, so this is all just about normal for the FLAMES. OGA called them Chasing Stanley – IN of the Playoffs – on 3 January 2009. One more win between now and 11 April should seal the deal although it would harm their confidence going into the Playoffs.
CHICAGO – CONGRATULATIONS, WINDY CITY! Holding 45.5 Wins, this is their best season since the Lockout by an average improvement of 28.2%. With an end-of-season surge, they were at 40 Wins this time last season. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 22 November. They have been pretty solidly set in the #3 or #4 seed for weeks now, and will make their first Playoff appearance since the 2001-2002 season.
COLORADO – Currently holding an un-Avalanche-like 32 Wins, last season they had 45 which was their best effort since the Lockout. This injury-riddled crew was called at Tee Time by OGA on 27 January 2009. Reinforcing a pattern since the Lockout, they will miss the post-season this year for an in-one-and-out-the-other performance.
COLUMBUS – As with Chicago, congratulations are in order. The ‘JACKETS’ 43 Wins stand as their best performance since the Lockout and will see them in post-season play for the first time in franchise history. Last year they held 39.5 Wins at this point but were not in contention due to the strong play of the teams to their front. Just how far they can go on the hot glove and paddle of Steve Mason is history yet to be written.
DALLAS – Right now at 37.5 Wins, injuries to key personnel and the confusion that was Sean Avery in the Stars’ locker room have sunk this team’s battleship. Their previous best was 2005/6 where they sported 50.5 Wins at this point in the season. But OGA called them at Tee Time on 21 March. This season was undone in Games 11-20 when they only provided 3-in-10 Wins and Game 61-70 when they went 4.5-for-10. That, ladies and gentlemen, is all it takes, most especially when the West sits so close upon each other at the 7th – 11th positions.
DETROIT – Right now they have 53.5 Wins. Last year was their best at this point with 56.5 Wins. ‘Yawn’ – they were called Chasing Stanley by OGA on 29 October 2008 and have won 6.5 of their last 10 games. Are they not a little boring at this point in the season? It seems to non-Red Wing fans that they are at their most exciting once mid-April arrives. The interesting thing to watch at this point is whether or not they get through the second round of the 2009 Playoffs, the traditional time finalists from the previous season are knocked off.
EDMONTON – Still in the Playoff hunt with 40.5 Wins, they are not being helped by dropping four of their last five tilts. At this time last year they had 42 W’s, their best effort in both 2007/8 and their Stanley Cup Finals year in 2005/6. OGA has neither called them IN nor OUT of the Playoffs yet as they continue to battle with NASHVILLE, ST. LOUIS and ANAHEIM for the final Western Conference Playoff berths. Overall, this team has only played about 1.5 games below the average required to qualify for the Playoffs. They need to make up those W’s in order to render the PREDS, BLUES and DUCKS moot.
LOS ANGELES – This is a character team with its 36.5 Wins so far this season. This effort has only been surpassed by their 2005/6 season where at this moment in time they had earned 40.5 W’s. A total of 3.5 Wins in their first 10 games and only 4.5 in the Game 61-70 timeframe are the reason we are not talking about their battle for one of the remaining Playoff positions out West. But make no mistake – this team is being grown the hard, long way which will pay off in the next few years.
MINNESOTA – Believe it or not, with 40 Wins this team is in grave danger of losing their Playoff berth. Last year, they had 45.5 W’s, proving injuries to key, franchise players in relation to Capology hurts an entire team. Their best season was 2006/7 when they had 49 Wins but only went on to lose in five games to ANAHEIM in Round 1 of the Playoffs. As is usually the case, the WILD started off a House On Fire, winning 7.5 of their first 10 games and were called as Chasing Stanley on 1 November 2008. But games 21-30 and 61-70 have almost ended their season. They must reach down deep and find a way to be almost perfect the rest of the way to 82 or they are done.
NASHVILLE – “…I will not go quietly into the night…” is this team’s clarion call. Currently an injury-riddled, character driven 42 Wins, this is the lowest number of W’s they have had at this point in any season since the Lockout, but probably their most proud tally. Last year they held 43 Wins at this point, but their best was 52.5 in 2006/7. OGA called them at Tee Time on 6 January 2009, and they are doing everything in their power to have that call ring as a Shot Off The Post, or an incorrect call by OGA.
PHOENIX – This team only has 34.5 Wins and hung in the race for the post-season through Game 50. This time last year, they had 40 W’s which was their best since the Lockout. But a rough Game 11-20 and 51-60 where they only won 7-of-20 games was their undoing. It did not help losing seven games on top of those losses from Game 61-70. OGA called them at Tee Time on 12 February 2009.
SAN JOSE – As of Sunday night, they sat at a league-leading 54.5 Wins, their best since the Lockout. It took until the Game 61-70 period for injuries and other team preparation to catch up to this club where they “only” won 4.5-out-of-10. At this time last year, they had earned 52 Wins. They tend to finish the season strongly with an average of 9.17 Wins in their final 12 games. OGA called them at Chasing Stanley on 28 October 2008. Couple that with the projected return of their injured and this team is most likely to go deep into the Playoffs.
ST. LOUIS – This team has 41.5 Wins, their best since the Lockout and a reason why, despite OGA’s call of Tee Time on 16 December 2008, this team is threatening to earn their first Playoff berth since the 2003/4 post-season. This time last season, they sported 37 Wins but were not in contention because NASHVILLE, the 8th seed, had six more. They must continue to put out the ‘W,’ and it is a distinct possibility.
VANCOUVER – A solid 45.5 Wins, this team has recovered from key injuries and only 3 Wins in the Game 50 period to pull of 16.5 from Game 51-70. Last year they held 43 Wins at this point. Their best season was 2006/7 where they carried their total of 50.5 Wins into a second-Round loss to eventual Stanley Cup winning DUCKS. One man does not make a team in and of themselves, but this team feeds collectively off of the likes of Luongo, Sundin and the Sedin twins to name a few. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 20 November 2008 and is glad they stood their ground with this call.
Keep watching this Conference, however, as the winningest teams are in the lower half of the standings – it remains to be seen who from that group advances and whether or not they are doing so well because they just hit their rhythm, or they are expending all their energy just to make it to mid-April.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
How Does It Look, Really? (Part East)
It is Saturday, 28 March and the season is almost over. How DO the teams look right now against their post-Lockout average? We thought a quick look at each team would be enlightening about where we are in the race for Stanley this season. Keep in mind our numbers for the team are in relation to total Wins and two OTLs equal one ‘W.’ Today will be a look at the East, and Sunday will be a look at the West as of the end of games Saturday night…
The Eastern Conference
ATLANTA – Currently, they have 37 Wins. Last year they were at 34.5 Wins. At this time of year, their best season was 2006/7 (the year they went to the Playoffs) when they had 44 Wins. OGA called them at Tee Time – OUT of the Playoffs – on 12 December 2008. Their season came off the rails by Game 30 where they had lost a combined 13 games.
BOSTON – Right now with 51 Wins. Last year they were at 43 Wins. This is their best season since the Lockout and is a full four games ahead of the end of last season with nine more games to go. OGA called them Chasing Stanley – IN of the Playoffs – on 17 November 2008. Over three, 10-game evaluation periods from Game 21 – 40, the BRUINS averaged 8-for-10 Wins.
BUFFALO – Holding 40 Wins. Last year they were at 40.5 Wins. At this point in the season, their best effort was 2006/7 (where they lost in the Conference Finals) when they had 51.5 Wins. OGA has not called them IN or OUT of the Playoffs yet this season as they have not met our criteria for either decision yet. Buffalo is in danger of missing the 2009 Playoffs based on 6.5 losses in the Game 11-20, and 6 losses in the Game 61-70, evaluation periods.
CAROLINA – Currently at 44.5 Wins. Last year they were at 44 Wins. Their best effort since the Lockout was 2005/6 when they were at 50 Wins at this point and went on to Win the Stanley Cup. OGA has not called them IN or OUT of the Playoffs yet this season but they are not far from the IN mark.
FLORIDA – Have battled to 41.5 Wins. Last year they had 40.5 Wins at this point. This is currently their best season since the Lockout. OGA has not called them IN or OUT of the Playoffs yet this season as they have not met our criteria for either decision yet. With MONTREAL having a game in hand and up two points in the standings, FLORIDA has to hope the CANADIENS drop 2.5 games more than they do between now and the end of the season.
MONTREAL – Right now at 42.5 Wins while last year being at 48 Wins. Their best effort since the Lockout was indeed last year at this point. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 1 November 2008. The issue with the CANADIENS is that, over the previous three seasons since the Lockout, they have averaged a consistent 8.5 Wins in their last 12 games. This year, they are on pace for 6-of-12, putting them in a race with FLORIDA for the Number 8 seed.
NEW JERSEY – Right now with 49 Wins, tying their previous best on 27 March in the 2006/7 season. Last year they had at 45.5 Wins at this point, so are a little ahead of the game. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 17 December 2008. At this point, it is a nightly battle between the DEVILS and CAPITALS for 2nd place, but JERSEY still has a shot at the Eastern crown.
NY ISLANDERS – Perhaps the most entertaining team with only 29 Wins. Last year at this time, they sported 37.5 W’s. Their best effort since the Lockout was 2006/7 where they advanced to the Playoffs and gave BUFFALO fits in a tight, 5-game series. OGA called them at Tee Time – OUT of the Playoffs – on 1 November 2008. Their season started off badly when they only Won 2.5 games of their first 10, and that was solidified with a 2-in-10 performance in Games 21-30. Since mid-January, however, the team has given otherwise-contenders fits, especially from Game 61-70 where they posted a combined six Wins despite injuries and the loss of three, key players in trades. ISLANDERS’ fans – your team has character.
NY RANGERS – Currently at 43.5 Wins, they are only one Win behind from the same point last season. Their best year since the Stoppage was 2005/6 when they were sitting with 46 Wins. This team gave their fans fits through the first three-fourths of February when they produced their worst, post-Lockout, 10-game average of 3-in-10 Wins. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 24 October 2008, and they have won 8.5 of their last 12 games.
OTTAWA – Holding only 27 Wins, they are at their lowest total for this time of the season since the Lockout. Last year, they sat with 45.5 despite a late-season slump. Possibly as a bit of a surprise, their best season was NOT 2006/7 when they went to the Stanley Cup Finals, but the one before where they had 51 Wins on 27 March, or BOSTON’s current tally. OGA called the SENS at Tee on 19 December 2008. While they played sub-par Hockey through Game 30, they hit their lowest point in the Game 31-40 timeframe when they only earned 2.5 Wins, their worst 10-game performance since the Stoppage.
PHILADELPHIA – Currently at 45 Wins, they are right about on par with the same mark in 2005/6 (45 W’s) and 2007/8 (44). This team’s worst performances this season were ‘only’ playing .500 Hockey in the Games 41-50 and 61-70 periods. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 13 December 2008, and they look to be in shape for a Playoff berth in one of the 4th – 7th seeds.
PITTSBURGH – Currently at 44 Wins, they are behind last season’s total by 3.5 W’s. Their best year since the Stoppage was 2006/7 when they had earned 49 Wins by this point in the season. In games 21-40, the PENS could only manage 7.5 Wins and made little headway playing .550 Hockey the following 20. But their 8-in-10 Wins in Game 61-70 pushed them back up the standings’ ladder. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 18 November 2008.
TAMPA BAY – Currently at 32.5 Wins, you did know they were NOT the worst team in terms of standings’ points, right? The Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL, they scrap for points as they battle through chemistry and injury problems. Their best season prior to this year was in 2006/7 where they drew and then took NEW JERSEY to six games in Round 1 of the Playoffs. The team won 5.5 games for Coach Melrose at the start of the season and only eclipsed that mark going 6-for-10 in the Game 51-60 period. They are proof that the ‘three-point game’ can HARM a team as they have racked up 17 OTLs.
OGA called them at Tee Time on 8 December 2008, and they look to be staying so for this season.
TORONTO – Standing with 37 Wins, their actual, worst 27 March point was in the 2005/6 season when they were one game behind this pace. Last year at this moment, they held 40 Wins. OGA called this team at Tee Time on 6 January 2009. A better team than, but similar to the ISLANDERS, TORONTO is entertaining because they have character and heart, and they can score goals, having 13 teams with less scored currently in the League.
WASHINGTON – Currently at a post-Lockout best 49.5 Wins, their top previous effort was last year when they held 42 at this point. That’s an 11% gain in output in one season, and an improvement of 31% from the three, previous seasons’ average. Smokin’ in the ‘W’ column, OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 19 November 2008. They look to be a pretty solid 2nd or 3rd seed when the East is decided in a couple of weeks.
Tomorrow, the difficult Western Conference…
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The Eastern Conference
ATLANTA – Currently, they have 37 Wins. Last year they were at 34.5 Wins. At this time of year, their best season was 2006/7 (the year they went to the Playoffs) when they had 44 Wins. OGA called them at Tee Time – OUT of the Playoffs – on 12 December 2008. Their season came off the rails by Game 30 where they had lost a combined 13 games.
BOSTON – Right now with 51 Wins. Last year they were at 43 Wins. This is their best season since the Lockout and is a full four games ahead of the end of last season with nine more games to go. OGA called them Chasing Stanley – IN of the Playoffs – on 17 November 2008. Over three, 10-game evaluation periods from Game 21 – 40, the BRUINS averaged 8-for-10 Wins.
BUFFALO – Holding 40 Wins. Last year they were at 40.5 Wins. At this point in the season, their best effort was 2006/7 (where they lost in the Conference Finals) when they had 51.5 Wins. OGA has not called them IN or OUT of the Playoffs yet this season as they have not met our criteria for either decision yet. Buffalo is in danger of missing the 2009 Playoffs based on 6.5 losses in the Game 11-20, and 6 losses in the Game 61-70, evaluation periods.
CAROLINA – Currently at 44.5 Wins. Last year they were at 44 Wins. Their best effort since the Lockout was 2005/6 when they were at 50 Wins at this point and went on to Win the Stanley Cup. OGA has not called them IN or OUT of the Playoffs yet this season but they are not far from the IN mark.
FLORIDA – Have battled to 41.5 Wins. Last year they had 40.5 Wins at this point. This is currently their best season since the Lockout. OGA has not called them IN or OUT of the Playoffs yet this season as they have not met our criteria for either decision yet. With MONTREAL having a game in hand and up two points in the standings, FLORIDA has to hope the CANADIENS drop 2.5 games more than they do between now and the end of the season.
MONTREAL – Right now at 42.5 Wins while last year being at 48 Wins. Their best effort since the Lockout was indeed last year at this point. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 1 November 2008. The issue with the CANADIENS is that, over the previous three seasons since the Lockout, they have averaged a consistent 8.5 Wins in their last 12 games. This year, they are on pace for 6-of-12, putting them in a race with FLORIDA for the Number 8 seed.
NEW JERSEY – Right now with 49 Wins, tying their previous best on 27 March in the 2006/7 season. Last year they had at 45.5 Wins at this point, so are a little ahead of the game. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 17 December 2008. At this point, it is a nightly battle between the DEVILS and CAPITALS for 2nd place, but JERSEY still has a shot at the Eastern crown.
NY ISLANDERS – Perhaps the most entertaining team with only 29 Wins. Last year at this time, they sported 37.5 W’s. Their best effort since the Lockout was 2006/7 where they advanced to the Playoffs and gave BUFFALO fits in a tight, 5-game series. OGA called them at Tee Time – OUT of the Playoffs – on 1 November 2008. Their season started off badly when they only Won 2.5 games of their first 10, and that was solidified with a 2-in-10 performance in Games 21-30. Since mid-January, however, the team has given otherwise-contenders fits, especially from Game 61-70 where they posted a combined six Wins despite injuries and the loss of three, key players in trades. ISLANDERS’ fans – your team has character.
NY RANGERS – Currently at 43.5 Wins, they are only one Win behind from the same point last season. Their best year since the Stoppage was 2005/6 when they were sitting with 46 Wins. This team gave their fans fits through the first three-fourths of February when they produced their worst, post-Lockout, 10-game average of 3-in-10 Wins. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 24 October 2008, and they have won 8.5 of their last 12 games.
OTTAWA – Holding only 27 Wins, they are at their lowest total for this time of the season since the Lockout. Last year, they sat with 45.5 despite a late-season slump. Possibly as a bit of a surprise, their best season was NOT 2006/7 when they went to the Stanley Cup Finals, but the one before where they had 51 Wins on 27 March, or BOSTON’s current tally. OGA called the SENS at Tee on 19 December 2008. While they played sub-par Hockey through Game 30, they hit their lowest point in the Game 31-40 timeframe when they only earned 2.5 Wins, their worst 10-game performance since the Stoppage.
PHILADELPHIA – Currently at 45 Wins, they are right about on par with the same mark in 2005/6 (45 W’s) and 2007/8 (44). This team’s worst performances this season were ‘only’ playing .500 Hockey in the Games 41-50 and 61-70 periods. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 13 December 2008, and they look to be in shape for a Playoff berth in one of the 4th – 7th seeds.
PITTSBURGH – Currently at 44 Wins, they are behind last season’s total by 3.5 W’s. Their best year since the Stoppage was 2006/7 when they had earned 49 Wins by this point in the season. In games 21-40, the PENS could only manage 7.5 Wins and made little headway playing .550 Hockey the following 20. But their 8-in-10 Wins in Game 61-70 pushed them back up the standings’ ladder. OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 18 November 2008.
TAMPA BAY – Currently at 32.5 Wins, you did know they were NOT the worst team in terms of standings’ points, right? The Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL, they scrap for points as they battle through chemistry and injury problems. Their best season prior to this year was in 2006/7 where they drew and then took NEW JERSEY to six games in Round 1 of the Playoffs. The team won 5.5 games for Coach Melrose at the start of the season and only eclipsed that mark going 6-for-10 in the Game 51-60 period. They are proof that the ‘three-point game’ can HARM a team as they have racked up 17 OTLs.
OGA called them at Tee Time on 8 December 2008, and they look to be staying so for this season.
TORONTO – Standing with 37 Wins, their actual, worst 27 March point was in the 2005/6 season when they were one game behind this pace. Last year at this moment, they held 40 Wins. OGA called this team at Tee Time on 6 January 2009. A better team than, but similar to the ISLANDERS, TORONTO is entertaining because they have character and heart, and they can score goals, having 13 teams with less scored currently in the League.
WASHINGTON – Currently at a post-Lockout best 49.5 Wins, their top previous effort was last year when they held 42 at this point. That’s an 11% gain in output in one season, and an improvement of 31% from the three, previous seasons’ average. Smokin’ in the ‘W’ column, OGA called them Chasing Stanley on 19 November 2008. They look to be a pretty solid 2nd or 3rd seed when the East is decided in a couple of weeks.
Tomorrow, the difficult Western Conference…
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Just What The Heck Happened Last NIght?
Last night there were several games with Playoff implications. Just what the heck transpired in those games?
Firstly, Carolina, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Anaheim who should have won, did. For the 'Canes, this means they continue to solidify their claim on the what OGA has been calling the last remaining Eastern Conference Playoff berth. Minnesota, whom OGA called IN the Playoffs last November, lived to scrap another day for a berth they should have been able to maintain but have had trouble with due to key injuries and, we would argue, some morale problems.
Pittsburgh continued their strong push to the post-season which began more than 10 games ago to the embarrassment of a slightly slumping (3-5 in their last eight) Calgary team. And Anaheim, a veritable sleeping giant that OGA called OUT of the Playoffs on 18 February continued to make a case for a seat at the Playoff table in the West.
Secondly, Buffalo hoped to ignite a winning streak they would have to continue with the return of Ryan Miller this Friday in order to salvage any hope of seeing the post-season still on skates. It cost Florida who has seemed, in combination with Carolina's winning ways, to slip heavily from what has been potential play on into late April. Now Florida and Montreal seem to be locked in a race to drop out of the eighth and final Playoff position.
And finally, Chicago indicated what a healthy squad is capable of against an injury-riddled San Jose team. The folks who should receive the contract extensions and bonuses for the Sharks will be the health and trainer staff who can nurse this team back onto the ice for the kind of Playoff run we have all expected since they started this season a team on fire.
Welcome to parity and the battle for your NHL Playoff picture, people. What a reason to come home from a hard day's work every night from now through April 12th...
Firstly, Carolina, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Anaheim who should have won, did. For the 'Canes, this means they continue to solidify their claim on the what OGA has been calling the last remaining Eastern Conference Playoff berth. Minnesota, whom OGA called IN the Playoffs last November, lived to scrap another day for a berth they should have been able to maintain but have had trouble with due to key injuries and, we would argue, some morale problems.
Pittsburgh continued their strong push to the post-season which began more than 10 games ago to the embarrassment of a slightly slumping (3-5 in their last eight) Calgary team. And Anaheim, a veritable sleeping giant that OGA called OUT of the Playoffs on 18 February continued to make a case for a seat at the Playoff table in the West.
Secondly, Buffalo hoped to ignite a winning streak they would have to continue with the return of Ryan Miller this Friday in order to salvage any hope of seeing the post-season still on skates. It cost Florida who has seemed, in combination with Carolina's winning ways, to slip heavily from what has been potential play on into late April. Now Florida and Montreal seem to be locked in a race to drop out of the eighth and final Playoff position.
And finally, Chicago indicated what a healthy squad is capable of against an injury-riddled San Jose team. The folks who should receive the contract extensions and bonuses for the Sharks will be the health and trainer staff who can nurse this team back onto the ice for the kind of Playoff run we have all expected since they started this season a team on fire.
Welcome to parity and the battle for your NHL Playoff picture, people. What a reason to come home from a hard day's work every night from now through April 12th...
Friday, March 27, 2009
Happy Meal, MacDonald! Isles shut out the Wings.
It's not pride that comes before the fall. It's haughtiness.
And how haughty for the last place, Tavares Anglers (read: New York Islanders) to walk into Hockey Town and shut out the Detroit Red Wings on their home turf. Perhaps 'tis the pride of one Joey MacDonald, a former Red Wing who had not started a game in seven contests (recouping from a knee injury), to return to play in Motown and earn the dOnut.
I am sure the fans of the Red Wing will note the 4 shots in the 3rd period off the post behind MacDonald. But we all know, when it happens, the goalie says, 'that's all I gave him'. Posts go 'tink', horn goes not.
I imagine Babcock had warned his team how tough it would be to play the last place Isles - a team playing for pride and with nothing to lose, going up against the best team in the NHL as a measuring stick for what they have learned this season and preparing for the next.
I wonder if the Wings' players were too proud to take the lowly Isles seriously?
The Islanders played their last contest of the 08/09 season against a Western Conference team tonight and the 'youth movement' has much to hang their hat, er helmet, on.
Whether a Red Wings fan or an Islanders fan, it was a good, hard-fought contest. It won't affect Detroit's positioning in the standings for post-season play as they race to the President's trophy. It will , perhaps, remind them to skate hard every night and get ready for the playoffs, plugging any holes exposed tonight.
For the hurtin' Isles fans, well, they may have thought pride comes before the fall. But not so. It's the Isles that will come ready and eager....next Fall.
Here, here Hockey!
And how haughty for the last place, Tavares Anglers (read: New York Islanders) to walk into Hockey Town and shut out the Detroit Red Wings on their home turf. Perhaps 'tis the pride of one Joey MacDonald, a former Red Wing who had not started a game in seven contests (recouping from a knee injury), to return to play in Motown and earn the dOnut.
I am sure the fans of the Red Wing will note the 4 shots in the 3rd period off the post behind MacDonald. But we all know, when it happens, the goalie says, 'that's all I gave him'. Posts go 'tink', horn goes not.
I imagine Babcock had warned his team how tough it would be to play the last place Isles - a team playing for pride and with nothing to lose, going up against the best team in the NHL as a measuring stick for what they have learned this season and preparing for the next.
I wonder if the Wings' players were too proud to take the lowly Isles seriously?
The Islanders played their last contest of the 08/09 season against a Western Conference team tonight and the 'youth movement' has much to hang their hat, er helmet, on.
Whether a Red Wings fan or an Islanders fan, it was a good, hard-fought contest. It won't affect Detroit's positioning in the standings for post-season play as they race to the President's trophy. It will , perhaps, remind them to skate hard every night and get ready for the playoffs, plugging any holes exposed tonight.
For the hurtin' Isles fans, well, they may have thought pride comes before the fall. But not so. It's the Isles that will come ready and eager....next Fall.
Here, here Hockey!
Dawn of a New Era in Columbus
With their 5-0 spanking of the Calgary Flames last night, the Columbus Blue Jackets finally turned the page on seven seasons of futility. As of this morning, On Goal Analysis calls the Jackets IN the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
It's been quite an exciting ride to this point, as Columbus dealt with multiple injuries (OGA estimates the Jackets lost 1.6 BILLION man-games to injury this season), one of which - to Pascal Leclaire - forced the call-up of 20-year-old goalie Steve Mason on November 4th. Mason's first start was a 5-4 win over Edmonton on November 5th, and the Jackets haven't looked back.
Columbus appears to have solidified their hold on 6th place in the West, but appearances can be decieving. Eight games remain in the Blue Jackets' schedule, and they can't afford to coast. This weekend, they play a home-and-home series against the onrushing St. Louis Blues who, like Bruce Willis' character in The Sixth Sense, don't know they're dead. Next week brings a home-and-home against a desperate Nashville squad, followed by yet another home-and-home, this time against Chicago. Columbus wraps up the regular season with games against St.Louis (again) and Minnesota. As strange as it may sound, the Jackets' easiest remaining games will probably be against the Blackhawks. Who'd a thunk it?
These are exciting times in Columbus. Jackets fans, it's time to break open those piggy banks and buy some playoff tickets. Congrats to both the Blue Jackets and their long-suffering fans! In closing, I'd like to dedicate a song to Ken Hitchcock and his boys:
And Columbus, if you think the regular season has been exciting, You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet...
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It's been quite an exciting ride to this point, as Columbus dealt with multiple injuries (OGA estimates the Jackets lost 1.6 BILLION man-games to injury this season), one of which - to Pascal Leclaire - forced the call-up of 20-year-old goalie Steve Mason on November 4th. Mason's first start was a 5-4 win over Edmonton on November 5th, and the Jackets haven't looked back.
Columbus appears to have solidified their hold on 6th place in the West, but appearances can be decieving. Eight games remain in the Blue Jackets' schedule, and they can't afford to coast. This weekend, they play a home-and-home series against the onrushing St. Louis Blues who, like Bruce Willis' character in The Sixth Sense, don't know they're dead. Next week brings a home-and-home against a desperate Nashville squad, followed by yet another home-and-home, this time against Chicago. Columbus wraps up the regular season with games against St.Louis (again) and Minnesota. As strange as it may sound, the Jackets' easiest remaining games will probably be against the Blackhawks. Who'd a thunk it?
These are exciting times in Columbus. Jackets fans, it's time to break open those piggy banks and buy some playoff tickets. Congrats to both the Blue Jackets and their long-suffering fans! In closing, I'd like to dedicate a song to Ken Hitchcock and his boys:
And Columbus, if you think the regular season has been exciting, You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet...
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Thursday, March 26, 2009
Chicago and Florida's Problems, Tonight's Key Games
First, a few quick thoughts on Wednesday night's games, then a brief look at tonight's action...
CHICAGO: Good job beating the Sharks (6-5,SO), but...When I tuned in, the 'Hawks were already up, 4-1. Squandering a three-goal lead, at home, to an injury-depleted San Jose squad should set off alarms. In Joel Quenneville's system, Chicago's d-men are fully engaged in the attack. This system works best when your goalies demonstrate the capability to make saves on breakaways, but neither Khabibulin nor Huet have been up to the challenge of late. Last night's example:
And two from last Friday:
If the Blackhawks can't clean up this mess, they could be one-and-done in the playoffs.
FLORIDA: After taking a 3-1 lead early in the 3rd against a down-and-out Sabres squad, the Panthers - repeating what has become a theme of late - snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, losing the game, 5-3, and seriously damaging their rapidly dwindling playoff hopes. The keyword is consistently, as in "The Panthers of late have consistently failed to play a full 60 minutes." As a result of their spotty efforts, Florida has dropped three straight, and now sits in 9th in the East, two points back of Montreal, and the Habs have a game in hand. The Magic 8-Ball says, "Outlook not so good.", which brings us to...
THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAMES OF NOTE
Florida must go into tonight's game at Philadelphia with a Game 7 mentality. Simply put, they NEED a W here, while the Flyers don't. If the Panthers don't leave The City of Brotherly Shove with two points - particularly if Montreal beats Tampa Bay - then I'm afraid the decision to keep Bouwmeester will go down in the history books as a gamble that didn't pay off.
Nashville needs to take full advantage of a beat-up and tired San Jose team. As with Florida, the Preds NEED two points, while the Sharks just need to get healthy for the playoffs (but picking up a point to stay ahead of Detroit wouldn't hurt). As with Florida, the Preds sit 9th in the conference. Two points tonight, coupled with an Edmonton regulation loss at Phoenix, will put Nashville into 8th come Friday morning.
Calgary at Columbus has "1st Round Matchup" written all over it. The Flames have stumbled a bit of late, and need a W tonight to maintain their division lead over the onrushing Vancouver Canucks. Meanwhile, Columbus needs a W for a comfortable 5-point lead over the suddenly red-hot Anaheim Ducks, not to mention the need for a "statement game" against a potential 1st round opponent.
So many more: Edmonton desperately needs to beat Phoenix...St. Louis (where did they come from?) desperately needs to beat Vancouver...Ditto Montreal over Tampa Bay. Let's face it: At this time of year, there are more "Must Win/Must Watch" games than not. It's the time of year when dreams are realized and hopes are dashed, when many teams' playoff futures hang on a single power play, a single injury, a single goal. It is both beautiful and terrible, and it's merely a glimpse of what will come in the postseason. To (loosely) paraphrase General George S. Patton:
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CHICAGO: Good job beating the Sharks (6-5,SO), but...When I tuned in, the 'Hawks were already up, 4-1. Squandering a three-goal lead, at home, to an injury-depleted San Jose squad should set off alarms. In Joel Quenneville's system, Chicago's d-men are fully engaged in the attack. This system works best when your goalies demonstrate the capability to make saves on breakaways, but neither Khabibulin nor Huet have been up to the challenge of late. Last night's example:
And two from last Friday:
If the Blackhawks can't clean up this mess, they could be one-and-done in the playoffs.
FLORIDA: After taking a 3-1 lead early in the 3rd against a down-and-out Sabres squad, the Panthers - repeating what has become a theme of late - snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, losing the game, 5-3, and seriously damaging their rapidly dwindling playoff hopes. The keyword is consistently, as in "The Panthers of late have consistently failed to play a full 60 minutes." As a result of their spotty efforts, Florida has dropped three straight, and now sits in 9th in the East, two points back of Montreal, and the Habs have a game in hand. The Magic 8-Ball says, "Outlook not so good.", which brings us to...
THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAMES OF NOTE
Florida must go into tonight's game at Philadelphia with a Game 7 mentality. Simply put, they NEED a W here, while the Flyers don't. If the Panthers don't leave The City of Brotherly Shove with two points - particularly if Montreal beats Tampa Bay - then I'm afraid the decision to keep Bouwmeester will go down in the history books as a gamble that didn't pay off.
Nashville needs to take full advantage of a beat-up and tired San Jose team. As with Florida, the Preds NEED two points, while the Sharks just need to get healthy for the playoffs (but picking up a point to stay ahead of Detroit wouldn't hurt). As with Florida, the Preds sit 9th in the conference. Two points tonight, coupled with an Edmonton regulation loss at Phoenix, will put Nashville into 8th come Friday morning.
Calgary at Columbus has "1st Round Matchup" written all over it. The Flames have stumbled a bit of late, and need a W tonight to maintain their division lead over the onrushing Vancouver Canucks. Meanwhile, Columbus needs a W for a comfortable 5-point lead over the suddenly red-hot Anaheim Ducks, not to mention the need for a "statement game" against a potential 1st round opponent.
So many more: Edmonton desperately needs to beat Phoenix...St. Louis (where did they come from?) desperately needs to beat Vancouver...Ditto Montreal over Tampa Bay. Let's face it: At this time of year, there are more "Must Win/Must Watch" games than not. It's the time of year when dreams are realized and hopes are dashed, when many teams' playoff futures hang on a single power play, a single injury, a single goal. It is both beautiful and terrible, and it's merely a glimpse of what will come in the postseason. To (loosely) paraphrase General George S. Patton:
"Hockey...God help me! I do love it so."
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Wednesday, March 25, 2009
OGA’s Analysis At Game 70
Game 70 in the 2008/9 NHL season has now passed for all teams. Where did the season go? Ahhh… a question some teams are asking themselves right now.
On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) offers a dissection of its proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) as it relates to calling teams IN or OUT of the Playoffs. This analysis will speak to what we think has already happened and what the last 12 games of the regular season may bring…
Out Traditional Three NHL Yardsticks at Game 70
For the Game 61-70 period, the NHL average against OGA’s PQC has increased from the historical 38.81 to the current 39.1. This is more than double the +.12 improvement at the Game 60 mark. The change is reflected in our three, league-wide yardsticks:
1. Average scoring per game is still up this season to an average of 5.843 goals per game from 5.567 in 2007/8. This stands as +.276 goals above last year’s per game average and an increase of +.4 goals over the last 10 games. Why the increase? Because of such games as TAMPA BAY’s 8-6 defeat of CALGARY on 1 MARCH and NASHVILLE’s 6-5 OT win over EDMONTON on 3 MARCH is the answer. In fact, 55 of 137 games tallied seven or more goals from 1 through 21 MARCH.
2. The number of OT/SO contests will likely rise higher than the month of February and stand about average with post-lockout, March averages. February’s total number of OT/SO games was exactly the historical, three-year average. With 10 nights to go in the month of MARCH, the League has seen 68.7% of ‘Bonus Hockey’ games than have traditionally occurred. This number of OT/SO games is a product of three things: wounded, starting goalies; wounded skaters; and the salary cap. The numerous injured players have forced the call up of players from the AHL and other leagues that require some experience to meet the NHL’s tempo, so errors in angles or coverage have occurred. And the cap has, in some cases, both dictated who could and could not be called up, and fostered team parity.
3. The gap between highest and lowest game-winning percentage for the League at Game 70 is now –33.8%. This is a continued decrease from the drop in the Game 60 gap of –39.94%. Your BOSTON’s and SAN JOSE’s whose victorious ways inflated the league winning percentages are now playing teams who have their number. BOSTON won more than eight-in-10 games from Game 11–50, and SAN JOSE, greater than 7.5. In Games 41 – 60, the BRUINS only played .525 Hockey and the SHARKS were at .450 for the Game 70 furlong. As with the Game 60 evaluation period, more teams played below the PQC than above it.How do these characteristics influence 2008/9 Conference play?
The Eastern Conference
The East ended the 70-game span above the historical average +.323, their highest gain against the PQC all season. This is an increase of +.593 from the same measurement at Game 60. The Game 70 stat rests below the League’s PQC average by almost –.27, but this is almost three times less than the gap from the last evaluation period. The Average standings difference from the 8th seed for teams not in a Playoff spot is –11.143 in the East, a spread barely under three-fourths of a game larger than at Game 50 and a huge variation from the same measurement ‘Out West.’ Why these trends? The East increased from 3-9-3 against the Curve to 6-6-3 during this period. While the East experienced a drop-off in the overall number of OT/SO games, this group of 15 won more games in regulation time than in their last, collective 10 games. And like our last report, the winning percentages for Eastern teams that will make the Playoffs indicate the overall model for this conference is just about right.
The Western Conference
Not so in the West. For the first time all season, this Conference fell below their traditional PQC. Their –.143 below the three year average is a significant drop from the +.333 they enjoyed at Game 60 (an overall drop of –.476!) and the season-long average of +.293. This is in large measure due to the below average play of the conference where the record against the Curve was 4-9-2. The Western Conference PQC is just above the NHL average by +.267, but this is another negative trend of a –.433 when compared to the Game 60 period. This is due to a combination of the overall drop in PQC based on play and the relatively small number of 17 games where teams played in OT/SO indicating losses are coming in regulation time. The average difference from the 21 March 8th seed to number 15 is –5.571 in the West, an increase of a full game from the Game 60 marker on 1 March. This continues the trend from Game 50 with an average increase of +.875 over the last 20 games. The significant drop in the Conference PQC, its comparison with the League PQC and the increase in distance between teams that could qualify and those below the Number 9 seed all serve to indicate the Western model is inflated and needs to be readjusted downward in terms of the minimum requirements to qualify for the 8th and final Playoff seed in the West.
How do your favorite teams look? Let’ see below:
IN The Hunt…
Back East, no new teams qualified for Chasing Stanley. So the RANGERS, MONTREAL, BOSTON, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA and NEW JERSEY all still remain ranked by OGA as teams that will qualify for a Playoff berth. BOSTON also mathematically clinched their Playoff berth just a hair after the end of the reporting period. While OGA predicted they might do so by Game 70, a below-BRUIN average of 5-4-1 this evaluation period ensued and put off the celebration a couple of games. PITTSBURGH continued to pick up the pace, moving up from the Number 8 seed on 1 March to Number 5 by 21 March. The RANGERS improved their trend from a terrible Game 51-60 performance with a 5-3-2 record that has them more solidly in the Playoff hunt. The significant negative trend is with MONTREAL who is in real danger of not seeing the Playoffs in this Centennial season. Traditionally, they win about eight and add an OTL in their final 12 games. This post-Lockout tradition needs to continue in order to make up for their harmful 6-13-1 Game 31 – 50 performance or they will see themselves displaced come 13 April.
Out West, no new teams qualified for Chasing Stanley just like back East. So SAN JOSE, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, VANCOUVER, CHICAGO and CALGARY are all still in the hunt. As predicted, SAN JOSE and DETROIT mathematically clinched their Playoff appearances during this period. VANCOUVER has continued their onslaught of the Western standings, losing only one in regulation and one in OT. MINNESOTA, though not yet eliminated, suffered their fifth evaluation period below the Curve, however. They are sinking fast as they only hold the 10th best winning percentage in the Conference, which the reintroduction of MARIAN GABORIK will likely impact. This team stands the best chance of being a Shot Off The Post – an incorrect call – this season.
On The OUTs…
In the Eastern conference, there is no change to teams ranked at Tee Time – eliminated from Playoff contention. The ISLANDERS, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, OTTAWA and TORONTO are still below the Playoff qualification line. Of note is the fact that four of the five played at or above the Curve this furlong, however, giving hell to the teams above them. They have collectively served as the most entertaining, unqualified-for-the-Playoffs teams in recent memory. Likely to join them a few games into the last furlong is BUFFALO who has stumbled mightily without RYAN MILLER. As with MINNESOTA, the SABRES sit with only the 10th best winning percentage in their Conference, are losing at the wrong time of year and sit with only one furlong above the Curve in the bank.
In the West, DALLAS joined ST.LOUIS, NASHVILLE, COLORADO, LOS ANGELES, PHOENIX, and ANAHEIM at Tee Time as this blog was being drafted. Their annual average of 5.67 games above the Curve at season’s end has slipped away and they will join a few other teams up in the stands that otherwise have not missed the post-season since the Lockout. They are a victim of a disjointed first half of the season, no SERGEI ZUBOV and BRENDEN MORROW and the loss of BRAD RICHARDS for several games with a broken wrist. So all seven teams at Tee Time out West are chosen and the other eight are Chasing Stanley, right? Not so fast…
On The Cusp…
Of most interest stand the rest of the teams who are not yet IN or OUT…
In the East, the interesting dilemma is if CAROLINA and FLORIDA make it in, is it the RANGERS or MONTREAL who get eliminated? The two, hottest teams in the NHL in the last 10 games have been the PENGUINS (8-2) and the HURRICANES (7-1-2). For the first time since their 2006 Stanley Cup victory, this team is poised to return to the post-season. For FLORIDA, MONTREAL and the RANGERS, the last two slots depend on the “W” and “L’s” for the rivals. It doesn’t take many “L’s” – in fact only two separate the three teams. Whoever plays to Win will be IN and one of the three will be watching the Playoffs in HD from their recliner. For our money, the most likely one is MONTREAL.
As you turn to survey the West, it is like stepping into a tornado. This is by far the most competitive Western Conference race we have seen since the Lockout. At the very outside edge of the disqualified teams who might still make their way back into the lower ranking slots are NASHVILLE, ANAHEIM and ST.LOUIS. Chances are slimmer for ANAHEIM and ST.LOUIS as their final outcomes are almost decided. NASHVILLE might JUST hang in there long enough to grab the Number 8 seed like they did last year. Besides CAROLINA above, no one is more poised to see the post-season who has not yet clinched a berth than COLUMBUS. Yes indeed, continue to play as they currently are, and the last of the NHL’s teams to not yet meet up with the post-season will be quickly called Chasing Stanley by OGA. Finally, EDMONTON will battle with MINNESOTA, NASHVILLE and the others mentioned above for their first game in the post-season since Game 7 with CAROLINA in June of 2006. If this were another sport, we would be watching at that singular, hold-your-breath moment when a cowboy leaps from his horse to grab the horns of a steer. Hang on – a couple more weeks will tell…
Looking Ahead
The Playoffs follow the Game 82 furlong. OGA’s look ahead will include series prognostications and blogging throughout the post-season. As a group, we cannot wait for that up-on-pins-and-needles, lose your breath excitement of the finality of the Stanley Cup run. These are Playoffs like no other sport can claim.In the meantime, there is still more Hockey to play and a few more seeds to be decided. OGA’s recommendation is to keep a sharp eye on those at the 6th through 9th (East) or 10th (West) positions for the rest of the season. Such pesky teams as TORONTO, OTTAWA, the ISLANDERS, ANAHEIM, ST. LOUIS and LOS ANGELES all hold the keys to other clubs’ ability to move on to the games of late spring. Stay logged in to On Goal Analysis to follow the calls…
On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) offers a dissection of its proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) as it relates to calling teams IN or OUT of the Playoffs. This analysis will speak to what we think has already happened and what the last 12 games of the regular season may bring…
Out Traditional Three NHL Yardsticks at Game 70
For the Game 61-70 period, the NHL average against OGA’s PQC has increased from the historical 38.81 to the current 39.1. This is more than double the +.12 improvement at the Game 60 mark. The change is reflected in our three, league-wide yardsticks:
1. Average scoring per game is still up this season to an average of 5.843 goals per game from 5.567 in 2007/8. This stands as +.276 goals above last year’s per game average and an increase of +.4 goals over the last 10 games. Why the increase? Because of such games as TAMPA BAY’s 8-6 defeat of CALGARY on 1 MARCH and NASHVILLE’s 6-5 OT win over EDMONTON on 3 MARCH is the answer. In fact, 55 of 137 games tallied seven or more goals from 1 through 21 MARCH.
2. The number of OT/SO contests will likely rise higher than the month of February and stand about average with post-lockout, March averages. February’s total number of OT/SO games was exactly the historical, three-year average. With 10 nights to go in the month of MARCH, the League has seen 68.7% of ‘Bonus Hockey’ games than have traditionally occurred. This number of OT/SO games is a product of three things: wounded, starting goalies; wounded skaters; and the salary cap. The numerous injured players have forced the call up of players from the AHL and other leagues that require some experience to meet the NHL’s tempo, so errors in angles or coverage have occurred. And the cap has, in some cases, both dictated who could and could not be called up, and fostered team parity.
3. The gap between highest and lowest game-winning percentage for the League at Game 70 is now –33.8%. This is a continued decrease from the drop in the Game 60 gap of –39.94%. Your BOSTON’s and SAN JOSE’s whose victorious ways inflated the league winning percentages are now playing teams who have their number. BOSTON won more than eight-in-10 games from Game 11–50, and SAN JOSE, greater than 7.5. In Games 41 – 60, the BRUINS only played .525 Hockey and the SHARKS were at .450 for the Game 70 furlong. As with the Game 60 evaluation period, more teams played below the PQC than above it.How do these characteristics influence 2008/9 Conference play?
The Eastern Conference
The East ended the 70-game span above the historical average +.323, their highest gain against the PQC all season. This is an increase of +.593 from the same measurement at Game 60. The Game 70 stat rests below the League’s PQC average by almost –.27, but this is almost three times less than the gap from the last evaluation period. The Average standings difference from the 8th seed for teams not in a Playoff spot is –11.143 in the East, a spread barely under three-fourths of a game larger than at Game 50 and a huge variation from the same measurement ‘Out West.’ Why these trends? The East increased from 3-9-3 against the Curve to 6-6-3 during this period. While the East experienced a drop-off in the overall number of OT/SO games, this group of 15 won more games in regulation time than in their last, collective 10 games. And like our last report, the winning percentages for Eastern teams that will make the Playoffs indicate the overall model for this conference is just about right.
The Western Conference
Not so in the West. For the first time all season, this Conference fell below their traditional PQC. Their –.143 below the three year average is a significant drop from the +.333 they enjoyed at Game 60 (an overall drop of –.476!) and the season-long average of +.293. This is in large measure due to the below average play of the conference where the record against the Curve was 4-9-2. The Western Conference PQC is just above the NHL average by +.267, but this is another negative trend of a –.433 when compared to the Game 60 period. This is due to a combination of the overall drop in PQC based on play and the relatively small number of 17 games where teams played in OT/SO indicating losses are coming in regulation time. The average difference from the 21 March 8th seed to number 15 is –5.571 in the West, an increase of a full game from the Game 60 marker on 1 March. This continues the trend from Game 50 with an average increase of +.875 over the last 20 games. The significant drop in the Conference PQC, its comparison with the League PQC and the increase in distance between teams that could qualify and those below the Number 9 seed all serve to indicate the Western model is inflated and needs to be readjusted downward in terms of the minimum requirements to qualify for the 8th and final Playoff seed in the West.
How do your favorite teams look? Let’ see below:
IN The Hunt…
Back East, no new teams qualified for Chasing Stanley. So the RANGERS, MONTREAL, BOSTON, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA and NEW JERSEY all still remain ranked by OGA as teams that will qualify for a Playoff berth. BOSTON also mathematically clinched their Playoff berth just a hair after the end of the reporting period. While OGA predicted they might do so by Game 70, a below-BRUIN average of 5-4-1 this evaluation period ensued and put off the celebration a couple of games. PITTSBURGH continued to pick up the pace, moving up from the Number 8 seed on 1 March to Number 5 by 21 March. The RANGERS improved their trend from a terrible Game 51-60 performance with a 5-3-2 record that has them more solidly in the Playoff hunt. The significant negative trend is with MONTREAL who is in real danger of not seeing the Playoffs in this Centennial season. Traditionally, they win about eight and add an OTL in their final 12 games. This post-Lockout tradition needs to continue in order to make up for their harmful 6-13-1 Game 31 – 50 performance or they will see themselves displaced come 13 April.
Out West, no new teams qualified for Chasing Stanley just like back East. So SAN JOSE, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, VANCOUVER, CHICAGO and CALGARY are all still in the hunt. As predicted, SAN JOSE and DETROIT mathematically clinched their Playoff appearances during this period. VANCOUVER has continued their onslaught of the Western standings, losing only one in regulation and one in OT. MINNESOTA, though not yet eliminated, suffered their fifth evaluation period below the Curve, however. They are sinking fast as they only hold the 10th best winning percentage in the Conference, which the reintroduction of MARIAN GABORIK will likely impact. This team stands the best chance of being a Shot Off The Post – an incorrect call – this season.
On The OUTs…
In the Eastern conference, there is no change to teams ranked at Tee Time – eliminated from Playoff contention. The ISLANDERS, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, OTTAWA and TORONTO are still below the Playoff qualification line. Of note is the fact that four of the five played at or above the Curve this furlong, however, giving hell to the teams above them. They have collectively served as the most entertaining, unqualified-for-the-Playoffs teams in recent memory. Likely to join them a few games into the last furlong is BUFFALO who has stumbled mightily without RYAN MILLER. As with MINNESOTA, the SABRES sit with only the 10th best winning percentage in their Conference, are losing at the wrong time of year and sit with only one furlong above the Curve in the bank.
In the West, DALLAS joined ST.LOUIS, NASHVILLE, COLORADO, LOS ANGELES, PHOENIX, and ANAHEIM at Tee Time as this blog was being drafted. Their annual average of 5.67 games above the Curve at season’s end has slipped away and they will join a few other teams up in the stands that otherwise have not missed the post-season since the Lockout. They are a victim of a disjointed first half of the season, no SERGEI ZUBOV and BRENDEN MORROW and the loss of BRAD RICHARDS for several games with a broken wrist. So all seven teams at Tee Time out West are chosen and the other eight are Chasing Stanley, right? Not so fast…
On The Cusp…
Of most interest stand the rest of the teams who are not yet IN or OUT…
In the East, the interesting dilemma is if CAROLINA and FLORIDA make it in, is it the RANGERS or MONTREAL who get eliminated? The two, hottest teams in the NHL in the last 10 games have been the PENGUINS (8-2) and the HURRICANES (7-1-2). For the first time since their 2006 Stanley Cup victory, this team is poised to return to the post-season. For FLORIDA, MONTREAL and the RANGERS, the last two slots depend on the “W” and “L’s” for the rivals. It doesn’t take many “L’s” – in fact only two separate the three teams. Whoever plays to Win will be IN and one of the three will be watching the Playoffs in HD from their recliner. For our money, the most likely one is MONTREAL.
As you turn to survey the West, it is like stepping into a tornado. This is by far the most competitive Western Conference race we have seen since the Lockout. At the very outside edge of the disqualified teams who might still make their way back into the lower ranking slots are NASHVILLE, ANAHEIM and ST.LOUIS. Chances are slimmer for ANAHEIM and ST.LOUIS as their final outcomes are almost decided. NASHVILLE might JUST hang in there long enough to grab the Number 8 seed like they did last year. Besides CAROLINA above, no one is more poised to see the post-season who has not yet clinched a berth than COLUMBUS. Yes indeed, continue to play as they currently are, and the last of the NHL’s teams to not yet meet up with the post-season will be quickly called Chasing Stanley by OGA. Finally, EDMONTON will battle with MINNESOTA, NASHVILLE and the others mentioned above for their first game in the post-season since Game 7 with CAROLINA in June of 2006. If this were another sport, we would be watching at that singular, hold-your-breath moment when a cowboy leaps from his horse to grab the horns of a steer. Hang on – a couple more weeks will tell…
Looking Ahead
The Playoffs follow the Game 82 furlong. OGA’s look ahead will include series prognostications and blogging throughout the post-season. As a group, we cannot wait for that up-on-pins-and-needles, lose your breath excitement of the finality of the Stanley Cup run. These are Playoffs like no other sport can claim.In the meantime, there is still more Hockey to play and a few more seeds to be decided. OGA’s recommendation is to keep a sharp eye on those at the 6th through 9th (East) or 10th (West) positions for the rest of the season. Such pesky teams as TORONTO, OTTAWA, the ISLANDERS, ANAHEIM, ST. LOUIS and LOS ANGELES all hold the keys to other clubs’ ability to move on to the games of late spring. Stay logged in to On Goal Analysis to follow the calls…
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
To Everything, There is a Season
Turn, Turn, Turn. Right?
On Goal Analysis sees the Dallas Stars have fallen below the threshold on the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and OGA now calls them OUT of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (Tee Time).
But don't tell the team that news. They don't want to hear it and nor should they.
Obviously, the Stars know the rough road that lies ahead as they host the Vancouver Canucks tonight at the American Airline Center for the first of their remaining 10 games to the 2008/09 NHL season. With points at their premium, the Stars hope to fasten together 3 wins, one game at a time, in their 3-game home stand and then see where they go from there.
From the Stars website today, "The key, according to Mike Ribeiro, is focusing on the game ahead of you, rather than the big picture. Staying focused and staying positive are also vital components needed for a solid effort this week that will hopefully produce three much-needed wins. Don’t look at the rest of the season, look at the next game, the next period, the next shift. Give 100 percent every single minute you’re on the ice, and the success will come."
And it is absolutely true. However, this is what various players in a Stars' sweater have been saying for the better part of the past 3 weeks when they declared themselves to be 'in the playoffs now', fighting for the right to compete for the Cup. And if they have been measured one game, one period, one shift at a time, one must admit they have fallen short of the success they seek especially coming off a 3-game road trip (all losses) billed as their chance to get back into the race.
In other words, if this had been the playoffs, they would already be eliminated.
Yet the team is determined to not let the frustration creep in and affect their fading hopes of stealing that 8th and final seed in the west. The Stars, as they have proven this season, are true competitors and are not ready to give up the ghost. Despite missing key players for large chunks of the season (Morrow, Zubov, Lehtinen, Richards) and despite the on and off-ice distraction of the Sean Avery Show, the Stars have given their all through the ups and downs. There are things to build on for next year.
For example, Mike Ribeiro has been able to play in every game so far this season and leads the team in points with 68 (19G, 49A). Breakout player, Loui Eriksson, who had 14 goals last season, already has 33 goals for this campaign and is one of the few players on this team with a double-digit plus/minus stat (+12). James Neal is 2nd in the NHL in rookie scoring with 23 goals on the season. And Steve Ott, battling a broken hand for the middle part of the season, is having a career-year with 37 points (16G, 21A) as he does his part to carry the team on his back through an injury-ridden season.
But no player (or team in the NHL for that matter) will pointedly blame the 'injury ninja' (thank you, the Program) or other distractions for a team's struggle. Stars' goalie, Marty Turco paints it well with his quote on the Stars' site today :
And as a fan, it's tough to see such an uphill climb at the end of the season for a playoff berth. Especially knowing how many 'knocks' this team has endured this season. Missing a true leader like Brendan Morrow, their captain, for all but 18 games has been frustrating. Having the majority of Dallas' hockey attention (from the rest of the NHL fan-base) devoted to a term like 'sloppy seconds' has been frustrating. Getting Brad Richards back after weeks of nursing, healing, rehabbing a broken left wrist only to watch him break his right one in the first game back is simply too much to endure.
But the next 10 Stars games should be fun to watch as they stay on message and stay focused on battling. 'Frustrating' can also be an opportunity for growth and character building. But the team must stare face to face with the battles of a long season and try not to let the 'speed bumps' get in the way of the race. As coach Dave Tippett stated,
I saw one commenter on a blog suggest an Avery Curse. Get real. How about 'what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger'? So although OGA says the Stars playoff hopes are dead at Tee Time for this season, we reserve the right to believe they can only come back stronger.
But perhaps not this season. For everything, there is a season...and what a season it has been.
On Goal Analysis sees the Dallas Stars have fallen below the threshold on the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and OGA now calls them OUT of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (Tee Time).
But don't tell the team that news. They don't want to hear it and nor should they.
Obviously, the Stars know the rough road that lies ahead as they host the Vancouver Canucks tonight at the American Airline Center for the first of their remaining 10 games to the 2008/09 NHL season. With points at their premium, the Stars hope to fasten together 3 wins, one game at a time, in their 3-game home stand and then see where they go from there.
From the Stars website today, "The key, according to Mike Ribeiro, is focusing on the game ahead of you, rather than the big picture. Staying focused and staying positive are also vital components needed for a solid effort this week that will hopefully produce three much-needed wins. Don’t look at the rest of the season, look at the next game, the next period, the next shift. Give 100 percent every single minute you’re on the ice, and the success will come."
And it is absolutely true. However, this is what various players in a Stars' sweater have been saying for the better part of the past 3 weeks when they declared themselves to be 'in the playoffs now', fighting for the right to compete for the Cup. And if they have been measured one game, one period, one shift at a time, one must admit they have fallen short of the success they seek especially coming off a 3-game road trip (all losses) billed as their chance to get back into the race.
In other words, if this had been the playoffs, they would already be eliminated.
Yet the team is determined to not let the frustration creep in and affect their fading hopes of stealing that 8th and final seed in the west. The Stars, as they have proven this season, are true competitors and are not ready to give up the ghost. Despite missing key players for large chunks of the season (Morrow, Zubov, Lehtinen, Richards) and despite the on and off-ice distraction of the Sean Avery Show, the Stars have given their all through the ups and downs. There are things to build on for next year.
For example, Mike Ribeiro has been able to play in every game so far this season and leads the team in points with 68 (19G, 49A). Breakout player, Loui Eriksson, who had 14 goals last season, already has 33 goals for this campaign and is one of the few players on this team with a double-digit plus/minus stat (+12). James Neal is 2nd in the NHL in rookie scoring with 23 goals on the season. And Steve Ott, battling a broken hand for the middle part of the season, is having a career-year with 37 points (16G, 21A) as he does his part to carry the team on his back through an injury-ridden season.
But no player (or team in the NHL for that matter) will pointedly blame the 'injury ninja' (thank you, the Program) or other distractions for a team's struggle. Stars' goalie, Marty Turco paints it well with his quote on the Stars' site today :
“They’re numerous, and we could scroll down a long list of excuses that could be made [for missing the postseason], but this team is not all about that,” Marty Turco said. “As openly criticized as we are of the position we’re in, we’re not willing to really accept defeat through excuses. We’re going to see how it all plays out over the next 10 games.”So, without 'accepting defeat through excuses', let's take a moment to examine a few random thoughts about why OGA believes, although hard-fought, this season will not end with the Stars sneaking into the playoffs:
- SERGEI ZUBOV. No, not only because he has missed all but 10 games this regular season, but because the Stars have, unfortunately, no real replacement (as if there could be) for one of the game's best puck-moving defensemen. Zubie sees the ice and the game at the same speed and with a similar vision to the Great One. Anybody who has watched the Stars (in seasons past) was familiar with his nonchalant, heads-up exit from the defensive zone into neutral ice, carrying the puck gently on his magnetic stick, leaving fore-checkers in his wake like children who have fallen off the inner tube behind the boat on a Texas lake any given summer. Zubov has been a fixture in Dallas for over a decade (since 1996) and I am sure this team is already thinking about what can be done in the off-season to come to terms with the fact he will have to retire at some point (38 years old). The hopes of last season wherein Matt Niskanen was given the chance to 'audition' for this role are all but vanished as the mentorship Zubie would have provided was shortened by injuries this season as well as the previous campaign. One has to wonder if the UFA Jay Bouwmeester will be notified this summer that the climates in Florida and Dallas are very similar when it comes to weather...and hotter in Dallas when it comes to hockey.
- UPS AND DOWNS.
- Marty Turco started the season with a near 4.0GAA. Then shut the door and opened the window for a winning streak in the middle portion of the season - the 2nd period, as it were - giving the Stars a chance to win every game in December, January and February as he regained his former composure and confidence. And win the Stars did...including 12 of 17 in January and February. But come the 'third period' (Late Feb, March), the Stars are struggling again to win 2 in a row and instead have lost 5 consecutive games in this time-frame.
- And speaking of 3rd periods, the Stars simply cannot score goals in the final frame of a game (28th in the league with only 56 goals in the third period) and only ONCE this season have they come back to win a game in the 3rd period when trailing. This is complete reverse from the Stars' teams of previous seasons wherein this club owned the 3rd period, outscoring their opponent and shutting them down.
- The Stars, since the late 90s, have been one of the hardest teams to score against with Eddie Belfour's reign transitioning to Marty Turco's tenure back-stopping a disciplined and tight defense. One of the best shut-down defenses in the NHL has now become 23rd in the league this season in Goals Against (3.03). True, Dallas' defensive corps are young and the past two seasons are providing the experience the players need to adjust but to observers, this Stars team is almost foreign in their defensive play. This is sure to be addressed during the off-season.
- THE POWER PLAY. The Stars have scored 10 goals on their previous 90 Power Play opportunities. Enough said.
And as a fan, it's tough to see such an uphill climb at the end of the season for a playoff berth. Especially knowing how many 'knocks' this team has endured this season. Missing a true leader like Brendan Morrow, their captain, for all but 18 games has been frustrating. Having the majority of Dallas' hockey attention (from the rest of the NHL fan-base) devoted to a term like 'sloppy seconds' has been frustrating. Getting Brad Richards back after weeks of nursing, healing, rehabbing a broken left wrist only to watch him break his right one in the first game back is simply too much to endure.
But the next 10 Stars games should be fun to watch as they stay on message and stay focused on battling. 'Frustrating' can also be an opportunity for growth and character building. But the team must stare face to face with the battles of a long season and try not to let the 'speed bumps' get in the way of the race. As coach Dave Tippett stated,
“That’s something that you can let it eat you, or you can attack it,” Head Coach Dave Tippett said about the feelings of frustration. “I’ve always been a big believer in that you look at things like that head on and find solutions for them. It’s frustrating not winning hockey games when points are so big right now, but you’ve got to find a way to beat that and get on top of it. It can eat away at you and you’ve got to find ways to get it out of your system and bring the positive in and use the positive energy to get the results you want.”Here, Here, coach. OGA doesn't mind you proving us wrong on our call - a potential OGA Shot off the Post. In fact, we wouldn't mind buying a few playoff tickets and do what we can to help support the economy. (The beer's not cheap, but neither is success.)
I saw one commenter on a blog suggest an Avery Curse. Get real. How about 'what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger'? So although OGA says the Stars playoff hopes are dead at Tee Time for this season, we reserve the right to believe they can only come back stronger.
But perhaps not this season. For everything, there is a season...and what a season it has been.
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