News, Notes and Ruminations

News, Notes and Ruminations after Tuesday night's games...

Fans in Columbus wondering what playoff hockey looks and feels like got a taste of it Tuesday night against Boston. Steve Mason was sharp, and flashed out his glove when Phil Kessel tested the "high glove side" theory. Raffi Torres scored the game-winner, but the first star should've gone to Jiri Novotny, who ran into Tim Thomas behind the Bruins' net and broke Thomas' mask. After a delay, Thomas headed back to his crease wearing Manny Fernandez' mask, and...bada-bing! Torres scores. (Note to Manny Fernandez: Science and logic dictate that this is proof positive your mask is cursed. Change your mask, rediscover your mojo; it's that simple.)

The Blue Jackets are off to a good start in a brutal stretch of schedule, going 2-1 against Nashville, Detroit and Boston. In the next five games, Columbus plays Pittsburgh, Chicago (2x), Detroit again, and Florida. If the Jackets can take full advantage of Chicago's injuries and Detroit's goalies, they'll be in great shape heading into the homestretch...

Something...I don't know what, but something tells me neither Nashville nor Columbus would mind playing Detroit in the first round of the playoffs...But Detroit would much rather face Edmonton, Dallas or Minnesota...

Injuries aside, I like Florida's chances to make the playoffs this season. Carolina is the hotter team right now, but the 'Canes have to play New Jersey THREE times between now and the end of the regular season, and the Devils have demonstrated an uncanny ability to kill any team's momentum (except the Islanders). Florida, on the other hand, doesn't play New Jersey between now and season's end. Advantage: Panthers.

The guys at The Program make a good case for the Rangers to recall Centerman Artem Anisimov from Hartford. I must admit, I'd really like to see what a couple of shifts of a Zherdev-Anisimov-Antropov line would look like. With New York currently so deep at Center, though, I suspect the MSG faithful won't see the talented 20 year old until the Rangers bring up the kids/depth players for the playoffs.

I'll close with a note for Jay Bouwmeester: This summer, when you're weighing your options/packing your bags in preparation for departure from the hockey "backwater" of south F-L-A, think about how different your life will be in a real (read: Canadian) hockey town - you won't go anywhere without a string of reporters in your wake. Your every movement, every word, will be scrutinized for hidden meaning. The colder the winter temps, the hotter the spotlight, Mr. Bouwmeester. Are you prepared for that kind of heat?

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Cross Kansas City Off the Islanders' List?

Just found this story on the intertubes...looks like Kansas City is struggling (like much of the rest of the U.S.) to meet their obligations to the taxpayers, so they might have to break their lease with the Chiefs and Royals, giving those teams leeway to move on to greener pastures. The "quote of note" in the article comes from KC Mayor Mark Funkhouser:

"We're trying to focus on services that directly matter to Kansas Citians. For example, our city services, basic services like police. That is a core function. Operating a sports venue is not."

Obviously, this calls into question the availability of a "sweetheart deal" for Charles Wang and his Islanders. If the Lighthouse Project falls through, will Kansas City still be willing (or able) to roll out the welcome mat, as they were prepared to do for the Penguins?

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What IS The Trade Deadline, Really?

So what does yesterday's Trade Deadline mean, really? It is undoubtedly a day of high anticipation both north and south of the American and Canadian borders. It generates lots of radio and cable/satellite/internet time. And for that air time, it generates good publicity for The Great Game.

Nevertheless, On Goal Analysis' (OGA's) believes the Trade Deadline comes too late in the season.

One reason we believe this is that by today's Deadline, we say 13 of 16 teams who will be in the Playoffs have already clinched a berth and 11 of 14 teams who will finish their season no later than 12 April have already been decided. (That's 80 percent of the Playoff picture.) In relation to yesterday's events then: six teams are probably most in need of executing a trade in order to MAKE the Playoffs; 13 teams may need something to change in order to bolster their chances of 'going deep' in the post-season; and 11 teams might need to make a change to - best - improve their team's future, and - OK - improve the financial health of their team. Said another way, only six teams can really change the course of their events by what happened yesterday. We are simply too far down the road toward the Playoffs for most of them to impact the true course of events with new players that can contribute to Wins.

At OGA, we analyze what in The Great Game directly impacts the goal of regular season play - making the Playoffs. We therefore offer a Trade Deadline measuring stick. From now through the Playoffs, we will take the opportunity to periodically provide analysis of how a traded player/players is/are contributing to the "W."

For teams that are already Chasing Stanley, acquisitions are likely to disrupt team chemistry before they provide ant steady, calming affect. So an inability of the new player to notch a Goal, Assist, Fight or Shutout on the stat sheet and his team losing 3-of-5, 7-of 10, and 10-of-15 after the trade are our indicators of an unproductive trade.

For teams that are In The Curve, a traded player should have a hand in directly contributing to team Wins about 60% of the time. A Goal, Assist, Fight or Shutout in the official stats when the team Wins a game is the first part of our measure. That will be paired with a second measure of the new team winning 3-of-5, 7-of 10, and 10-of-15 games prior to the Playoffs and 60% or more of Playoff games through at least one series. Meet those requirements and we'll call that a productive trade.

For those teams at Tee Time, unless the trade miraculously pulls them up out of the cellar, the true impact will not be felt until next season so those teams' activities will not be tracked.

The Colonel will be watching and provide you with analysis, so stay tuned to this site for more in five games...

Post-Trade Deadline Ruminations

I don't know about y'all, but I feel like it's mid-Christmas morning, and I've just finished opening all my presents. Sure, I got some good stuff, but...Christmas is now officially over, and I can't help but feel a bit let down. As I attempt to adjust to the new reality while sitting in a metaphorical pile of shredded wrapping paper, the following ruminations rise like gas bubbles to the surface of my consciousness and burst onto the (electronic) page...

1. I am thrilled and relieved that Sean Avery is back on Broadway. The Rangers need him, and he needs New York. Having Avery back in blue means the end result of a Rangers-Devils playoff series this season is not a foregone conclusion, and the Blueshirts are no longer a "plain vanilla" team. As John McClane said in Die Hard, "Yippie-ki-yay, motherf*****".

1A. On the Rangers' acquisition of Nik Antropov: A guy who can put puck in net, and he only cost a 2nd rounder and a conditional pick? Good job, Slats - but not good enough to make me forget about Wade Redden...and you now have to figure out how to re-sign Antropov this summer. Message to Coach Tortorella: Try him on a line with Zherdev.

1B. On the Rangers' acquisition of Derek Morris: I'm not afraid to say it: Glen Sather had a good day. I agree with Stan Fischler - Morris is going to help the PP (which needs all the help it can get!). While I'm very sorry to see Prucha go, I'm not going to miss Nigel Dawes all that much. As for Dimitri Kalinin...I'd like to direct my comment toward the Phoenix Coyotes:



2. The early bird gets the worm...or in this case, Antoine Vermette. Sure, I'd already given up hope on Jason Spezza (thanks for crushing that dream for me, Aaron Portzline!), but I was intrigued by the rumblings of late concerning the oft-damaged Tim Connolly. Instead, we get the non-surprise surprise deal of Pascal Leclaire for Antoine Vermette. After a bit of initial disappointment, I realize it's a win for both teams, but Columbus will see a much quicker return on their investment.

3. I hope everyone's ready for Thursday night, as there's a lot of good hockey on my NHL Center Ice package: For an appetizer, tune in at 7:00 Eastern for another round in the Battle of New York. Avery's first game back, and I'll be wearing my t-shirt to celebrate the occasion - a t-shirt which only cost $9.99 when Avery was playing for Dallas/in therapy. For those of you who lacked faith that The Reviled One would return, the price has gone up.

Also at 7:00 Eastern, the all-new Phoenix Coyotes are at Boston. Will the Coyotes be wearing those "HELLO, My Name Is..." tags on their jerseys? Tune in to find out...

While Calgary at Philadelphia (7:00 EST) should also be a good game, I'm afraid I'll have to catch the highlights on NHL On The Fly, as the more compelling match-up is Pittsburgh at Florida, at 7:30 EST. The Penguins look to distance themselves from Carolina and Buffalo, while the Panthers no longer have to deal with the Jay Bo Trade distraction (a tip o'the hat to Jacques Martin for not pulling the trigger - a gutsy move) and can focus on clinching a playoff berth. Flightless Waterfowl vs. Big Carnivorous Cats, anyone?

Speaking of playoff implications, Columbus is at Nashville (8:00 EST). The Blue Jackets are two points ahead of the Predators, who've won 5 straight and seem bent on proving OGA wrong. Technically, it isn't a "must-win" game, but that's how both teams will (and should) play it.

Rounding out the night, Dallas at Los Angeles (10:30 EST) should be entertaining, but the late game to watch will be up the coast, where Minnesota visits San Jose (also 10:30). The Wild must find a way to stop the bleeding, and they'll go up against an angry Sharks squad, still upset over the way the Stars pulled their pants down and spanked them in front of their own fans. On behalf of the Stars, I'd just like to say to San Jose:



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Analysis At Game 60

Game 60 in the NHL has come and gone for all teams and the end of the season is coming like a blur. Where do we stand in the NHL as a whole, by conference and by team against On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC)? Let’s take a look…

Three NHL Yardsticks at Game 60

For the Game 51-60 period, the NHL average against OGA’s PQC has increased from the historical 33.18 a scant +.12 to the current 33.333. This is less than half of the +.243 improvement from the Game 50 mark. This smaller change is influenced by our three, league-wide yardsticks:

1. Scoring is still improved this season to an average of 5.803 goals per game from 5.567 (overall) last season, a miniscule drop of –.001 goals per game from the 50-game marker.

2. The number of OT/SO contests rose from January’s –33.82% dip to even with the post-Lockout, February average. At the end of February, the NHL is ahead of that OT/SO average by +38.667 games, a contributing factor to the increase in the overall PQC. This increase in OT/SO games is a product of both team intensity ramping up as they begin their last push toward the Playoffs and the competitiveness of a Cap-driven league.

3. The gap between highest and lowest game-winning percentage for the League at Game 60 is now a –39.94%, a drop in the gap from Game 50 which was –43.56%. Winning teams are losing their edge over the ‘lesser’ teams as shown by only nine teams scoring above, and four teams scoring even with, the PQC.

How do these characteristics manifest in 2008/9 Conference play?

The Eastern Conference

The East ended the 60-game span down a –.26 against the PQC than the historical average. This statistic is –.42 lower than the same measurement at the 50-Game point, a reversal of the positive trend from Game 50. The Game 60 stat is also below the League’s PQC average by almost –.7, a bit less than double the gap from the last evaluation period. And the Average standings difference from the 8th seed for teams not in a Playoff spot is –11.857 in the East, a spread less than 3/4 of game larger than at Game 50 and a huge variation from the same measurement ‘Out West.’ Why the negative trends? Simply put, the East was 3-9-3 against the Curve during this period with only OTTAWA, PHILADELPHIA and WASHINGTON rising above the average. As of Game 60, the Eastern PQC model shows less wins are required to qualify for the Playoffs than the traditional model. However, the winning percentages for teams that will make the post-season indicate the overall model will hold true, so no adjustment is necessary.

The Western Conference

Just as nature seeks equilibrium, the West continues to enjoy improvements against the PQC in contrast to the East. This continues the trend from the last, 10-game stretch. At Game 60, this PQC has increased to a +.333 over their historical average, a gain of +.213 in the last 10 games. The Western Conference PQC is also +.7 higher than the NHL average, an increase of +.25 from the last reporting period. The average difference from the 1 March 8th seed to number 15 is only –4.571 in the West, an increase of almost 3/4 of a game from Game 50. How come so positive? Western teams are 6-7-2 against the Curve for this period with only two teams, ANAHEIM and PHOENIX, a full one point off the pace. Also different from the average as in the East, OGA still stands by the current model in the West.

How does your favorite team stack up? Let’ see below:

IN The Hunt…

Back East, the RANGERS, MONTREAL, BOSTON, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA and NEW JERSEY are all still ranked by OGA as Chasing Stanley. This is no change from the last report, with BOSTON likely to mathematically clinch their Playoff berth during this next evaluation period. Two things HAVE changed, however. PITTSBURGH has picked up the pace after four straight periods of downward trend and, as of 1 March sits as the Number 8 seed. The RANGERS, on the other hand, produced their worst 10-game performance since the Stoppage and sit only one win in front of the PENS. The OGA Daily Tip-In Sheet projects the BLUE SHIRTS requiring the full 82 games of the season on their current pace to advance to the post-season.

Out West, SAN JOSE, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, VANCOUVER, CHICAGO and CALGARY are all still Chasing Stanley. Both SAN JOSE and DETROIT stand a good chance of mathematically clinching their Playoff position during this period. Since the Game 50 report, VANCOUVER has caught fire and sits strongly in the 5th seed. MINNESOTA, as has been the case off and on throughout the season, is waffling in the “W” column and is hurting their chances at advancing into late April. They are only winning a projected 53.28% of their games, the lowest of the teams currently projected to make the Playoffs, and will likely require all 82 games plus losing trends by the likes of COLUMBUS, EDMONTON, ANAHEIM, NASHVILLE and/or DALLAS to make the Playoffs.

On The OUTs…

In the Eastern conference, there are no changes to teams ranked at Tee Time, or eliminated from Playoff contention. The ISLANDERS, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, OTTAWA and TORONTO are still at Tee Time, OGA’s ranking of eliminated from Playoff contention. As of their Thursday, 19 February loss to CAROLINA, there is no way the ISLANDERS can win enough games in the season to simply move back up to a ranking of In The Curve which wouldn’t put them in the running for a Playoff position. (If you ignore the standings and go to an ISLE’s game, however, you would never know they were done as they continue to play a tough, entertaining Hockey game on most nights.) ATLANTA and TAMPA BAY are a scant two losses away from loading up into the same boat. TORONTO and OTTAWA have a bit more leeway, but two and one losses respectively mean they will fail to qualify for OGA’s ranking of Chasing Stanley this season.

In the West, ST.LOUIS, NASHVILLE, COLORADO, and LOS ANGELES were joined at Tee Time by PHOENIX and ANAHEIM during this furlong. Of these teams COLORADO looks to be solidly through – they cannot win enough games to be ranked as Chasing Stanley. In order, ANAHEIM, NASHVILLE, ST.LOUIS, LOS ANGELES and PHOENIX still have a chance of being dubbed a Shot Off The Post and moving upwards from elimination to qualification if they win and the teams in front of them lose. For the DUCKS, a combination of four losses and wins by the seeds above them will keep them at Tee Time. For NASHVILLE and ST.LOUIS, the magic number is 3.5 losses. And LOS ANGELES and PHOENIX only need to drop 1 and 1/2 game respectively. The West is tight from eight to 15, so expect turbulence as we come in for an end-of-season landing.

On The Cusp…

Of most interest stand three teams each in the East and West who remain In The Curve, or still in the hunt for a Playoff spot. Forgetting for a second that there are teams that have met the Tee Time criteria in the West that may still surprise, here is how these six teams stack up:

FLORIDA is the only one of the six that could reach the criteria to be called Chasing Stanley over this furlong. As of 1 March, however, they need to be almost perfect over the next seven games to do so. The issue here is that they are 6-4 in their last 10 and would need to play .929 Hockey over the next seven tilts. This not being likely, they will most probably fail to meet OGA’s criteria for Chasing Stanley, but we would smile if we were wrong in this regard. They are a strong contender for making the Playoffs this year, a great thing for Hockey where it’s 90F/32C+ degrees.

Staying in the East, BUFFALO and CAROLINA are still In The Curve and could remain there after this furlong. The issue is that the CANES have only played .500 Hockey, and the SABRES .400 Hockey in their last 10 games. Another key indicator of making the Playoffs since the Lockout has been rising above the Curve at least twice by now in the season and neither the SABRES nor CANES have done so. As a bottom line, both teams are in trouble unless the RANGERS and PENGUINS falter and lose their Playoff bid and FLORIDA drops off of their current pace.

DALLAS, EDMONTON, and COLUMBUS still remain In The Curve in the West and none will rise above that rank by Game 70. In order of the best chance of remaining in the Playoff hunt, these teams fall out as COLUMBUS, EDMONTON and DALLAS with all of them being pushed by clubs currently below the line. DALLAS has slipped most as they ride a five-game losing streak and are most in danger of elimination. For all three teams, getting the “W” is the only thing that can shut up the pundits. This Conference will have the most pressure and excitement as we close in on ’82.

Looking Ahead

The Game 60 stretch has provided us with an exciting current set in the NHL. By our calculations, there is one seed remaining in the East, and two to fight for in a very tight Western Conference by 13 April.

The Game 61-70 timeframe is an important evaluation period where three teams are likely to mathematically clinch their Playoff berth and more riding In The Curve may just fall out. There is still more Hockey to play and OGA’s PQC says the smart money is on the fan who doesn’t leave before the final buzzer. Stay logged in to On Goal Analysis to follow the calls…

Traders Send NHL Tumlbing Into the Boards (TEE TIME)

This is the third and final of three posts examining some interesting thoughts and notes regarding 10 of the NHL's 30 teams as they prepare for T-D Day (trade deadline).

A total of 3 posts are provided broken into the 3 categories of Chasing Stanley, In the Curve and Tee Time to correspond with On Goal Analysis' (OGA) depiction of where the teams stand on their quest to qualify for NHL post-season play.

At OGA, we measure a team's performance to a proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) at the end of each 10-game segment to see where they fall on the Curve. For more information, please see The Tao of OGA to understand how we can call a team IN or OUT of the playoffs, even as early as November.

The following teams have all been determined by OGA to be at TEE TIME:

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

• Bill Guerin is the healthy scratch du jour...again. Sitting out the last couple games...is it Boston? Montreal? NO, it's the Capitals!!! No, wait....it's not. FUN! But what what if we throw in Doug Weight?...Okay, it's Boston! The Caps? It's on Hold? Lather, Rinse, Repeat.
• The most important part of this to note: both Guerin and Weight are both going to unrestricted free agents come summer and both are 38 years old...and can still play. Both have played together in Edmonton, St. Louis and now on the Island. Perhaps renting them both to the same team for immediate chemistry and a contributing line would help a team push deep into the playoffs. It would certainly make a great hockey story for these two deserving players. If they do both go (either together or separate) it is important the Islanders get some tasty treats in return - prospects, early picks, a new arena....something good to help this team keep the fan base hopeful and the recent progress on the Lighthouse Project cooking along. The Isles are going to be contenders in this league much sooner than people are ready to accept and the coach made the decision by the Game 40 mark this year to let the youth play and get experience in anticipation of next season's success.
• On February 20th, the Isles did deal Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli for Dean McAmmond and a 2009 first round pick, positioning themselves to add to the future.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

• The Leafs are expected to be one the busiest teams at the deadline...and expected to be sellers. Mathematically, the team still has a slim chance of making the playoffs. However, OGA has called them OUT and we stick to that call. Thus, any moves made on March 4th are done in anticipation of strengthening the team for next season and beyond...and shedding some payroll.
• For an overview, here are the players said to be available to any of the other 29 teams who want to part with draft picks and/or promsing prospects:

1. Pavel Kubina - D - Unrestriced free agent after the 09/10 season who currently has a no-trade clause. Still a possibility on the deal-making, though.
2. Tomas Kaberle - D - Will he or won't he? Another no-trader but provided the GM with a list of 10 teams (all in the East) he would be willing to consider. The latest thoughts on this are that he may not be available after all. He is definately a fan favorite and very talented. But GM Burke wants top biliing for this player who deserves it.
3. Nik Antropov - C - Can also play right wing and has been expected to be available all season for the trade deadline to relieve salary cap space as he is an unrestricted free agent after this season. Antropov is having a good season but has not played up to expectations over the years, many have thought. A change of sweaters is probably more likely for this player than any other on the Leafs' squad and he will boost any team's chance of making the post-season, despite the naysayers who like to refer to him as 'the pylon.'
4. Matt Stajan - C - He is having a great year and is signed thru the 09/10 season at an attractive salary. Will he stay or will he go? It depends on the offer...
5. Dominic Moore - C - Having a break-out, career year and is worth more now than previously thought. Burke will want to move Moore and get the most bang for the buck here. Another fairly safe bet for a Maple Leaf falling from the tree.

UPDATE: Both Nik Antropov and Dominc Moore were scratches for the Maple Leafs' game (03.03.09) vs the New Jersey Devils. Time to pack up, boys!


PHOENIX COYOTES

• The Coyotes looked like they were playoff bound midway thru the season. Then came the All-Star break and a drought in the desert. Following a nasty losing streak, this team begain (yet again) thinking about what can they do for positioning next season. The GM has already stated he will trade Derek Morris, an expensive, unrestricted free agent after this season.
  
• Olli Jokinen is another name bantered around the intertubes of late with trade rumors, but Phoenix has barely begun to reap the benefits of this dynamic player, received from Florida before the current campaign. Although the organization may entertain trade offers for this difference-maker, it will be costly to pry him from the Desert Dogs, if at all.
• Phoenix has so much potential and the middle part of the current season had hints of what is to come for this team. No need to go shopping in hopes to make the playoffs this year, but if another contender comes calling with big eyes and open wallets, they will, as all teams will, consider the offers. Everyone's a seller when the price is right.

This wraps up the Frozen Pill's review of 10 teams before the trade deadline. On Wednesday, March 4th, the real fun begins. One reminder - the yard sale ends at 3PM Eastern time but that simply means that communication must be received by the NHL offices by this time. So any late, breaking deals may not get reported until closer to 3.30 or 4.00PM. Golly, waiting another half hour? Yeah, we'll be okay. But the games tomorrow night and on Thursday will be fun to watch because only one other deadline looms...the Playoffs!

Traders Send NHL Tumlbing Into the Boards (In the Curve)

This is the second of three posts examining some interesting thoughts and notes regarding 10 of the NHL's 30 teams as they prepare for T-D Day (trade deadline).

A total of 3 posts will be provided broken into the 3 categories of Chasing Stanley, In the Curve and Tee Time to correspond with On Goal Analysis' (OGA) depiction of where the teams stand on their quest to qualify for NHL post-season play.

At OGA, we measure a team's performance to a proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) at the end of each 10-game segment to see where they fall on the Curve. For more information, please see The Tao of OGA to understand how we can call a team IN or OUT of the playoffs, even as early as November.

The following teams have all been determined by OGA as IN THE CURVE:

Only TWO of the Frozen Pill's teams remains In the Curve, still hunting for a playoff spot without having been called IN or OUT by our PQC - the Dallas Stars in the West and the Carolina Hurricanes in the East.

DALLAS STARS

• Perhaps this one has slipped past the majority of trade rumors circulating around on the blogosphere and in more general reporting but this quote from today's Chicago Tribune certainly caught my attention. Buried at the end of the story about Huet returning to net is this morsal: "Other centers rumored to be on the market include Phoenix's Ollie Jokinen and Dallas' Mike Ribeiro and Brad Richards"
• I believe most of us have read Jokinen's name in the trade talk over the past couple of weeks, but Ribeiro and Richards? If true their names are being tossed around in trade talks, that would mean the Stars are looking to completely remake their team as these two players have become intricately woven into what is supposed to be the 'future' of this team. Players you build around... In addition, Richards was just brought to Dallas last year at the trade deadline and signed a multi-year deal. Not to mention he is mending a broken wrist and probably won't be in playing form until perhaps the second round. Sounds like a red herring to me. And smells fishy, too.
• With the Stars having had a roller coaster year in up and down swings (injuries/talky seconds, etc.) and now having lost 5 of their season-long 6-game home stand, the Stars need to hold onto their early round draft picks (they are notorious for offering them away) and focus on winning with the team they have and working towards the next two seasons as well. Having let themselves down with their recent performance, this is not the season to trade away picks, hopeful prospects, local favorites who produce (Lehtinen, who will sign for a discount, Ott, etc.) for a rental player to get the Stars into the first round of the playoffs in hopes Brendan Morrow or Brad Richards can join the fray cold and make an impact. Exhibit 1 would be Ladislav Nagy...Exhibit 2 is Claude Lemeiux.
  
• The Stars last week traded defenseman Doug Janik to Montreal for gritty forward Steve Begin. If this is the culmination of their trade deadline activity, it might just be sufficient. The Co-GMs of Dallas have stated they are wanting to fill voids on the squad by allowing youngsters/prospects to play and contribute. Since they have a record of trading away draft picks over the last few seasons and made a huge splash on the deadline last season, sticking with the team they have is a good strategy. Adversity builds strength.
  
• Yes, Avery is now a New York Ranger. The fashion world has never been in such a tizzy and all a flutter.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

• The Hurricanes are in a very similar spot as the Stars. They are on the cusp of making one of the bottom slots for a playoff run but subject to fits and starts in team play. The 'Canes are also dealing with money issues and cannot really afford to be buyers...especially just for the sake of hoping they make it in.
• The Hurricanes also have a decent farm squad now and should be hesitant to 'give away the farm' or use draft picks. As ye Olde Rogers did say, 'Know when to hold 'em...'
• They also obtained Jussi Jokinen in a trade with Tampa Bay in early February for LW Wade Brookbank, D-Man Josef Melichar and a 2009 4th round draft pick. If the trade seems lopsided to you, keep in mind Jokinen began his career in Dallas and played well but was not necessarily well-suited to the crazy situation in Tampa this season. He was under utilized and will most likely thrive in Carolina, providing some offensive punch.
  
• It may not happen by tomorrow, but don't be surprised if the Hurricanes seek the return of their prodigal son, Erik Cole in early July when the UFA is done with his stint in Edmonton. A fan favorite, Cole's return could help the team immensely going forward although it won't have an impact this season. Again, as with the Stars, this Carolina Hurricanes team should play with what they have, push for the playoffs and live to fight another day without raiding tomorrow.

Traders Send NHL Tumlbing Into the Boards (Chasing Stanley)

This is the first of several posts examining some interesting thoughts and notes regarding 10 of the NHL's 30 teams as they prepare for T-D Day (trade deadline).

A total of 3 posts will be provided broken into the 3 categories of Chasing Stanley, In the Curve and Tee Time to correspond with On Goal Analysis' (OGA) depiction of where the teams stand on their quest to qualify for NHL post-season play.

At OGA, we measure a team's performance to a proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) at the end of each 10-game segment to see where they fall on the Curve. For more information, please see The Tao of OGA to understand how we can call a team IN or OUT of the playoffs, even as early as November.

The following teams have all been determined by OGA as CHASING STANLEY:

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

• This team is good enough to win games and go deep into the playoffs as it is with no additions. Having just gotten Daniel Briere back from missing most of the season is like picking up a big player at the trade deadline anyways. Rumors are floating around about a Briere-for-Bouwmeester trade with Florida but I think this team has yet to see what Briere can give going forward...and the benefits reaped if he can stay healthy for the post-season and next year.
• That being said, Jay Bouwmeester is hot on the Flyer's minds but salary cap is an issue for this team and if they were to acquire Bouwmeester, look for some major changes to the team (netminders, maybe?) as they will have to give up a lot to convince management in FLA to part with their best hopes for a run in the playoffs over the past decade. They are still trying to seats at the arena as, after all, it is a business...
• The return of Kimmo Timonen from injury may be the shot the doctor ordered to bolster the defense and their offensive prowess (a Briere in form, Richards, Carter, Upshall, Gagne, Hartnell, etc.) is just too good to not rely upon for a big run at the Finals.
  

MONTREAL CANADIENS

• It's Vinny Lecavalier's brother...it has to be.
• With Robert Lang out and the Kostitsyn brothers soaking up the recent media coverage, and Alex(i) Kovalev being sent to his room to think about it, Bob Gainey and team are really having to work through this trade talk this season. On their 100th year and after hosting the All-Star game this season, talks of a centennial celebration lasting to the Stanley Cup Finals are starting to look dire. But Bob is a true professional and operates at a higher plane than many other GMs do. No Canadien is on the 'block' and no Canadien is 'safe'. There are only discussions to be had, chemistry to consider and goals to be achieved. If the puzzle piece fits...
• Having acquired Mathieu Schneider a couple of weeks ago, defense was tightened up. Now what to do about that missing Lang? With so many of the Canadiens staff having been a part of successful Dallas Stars seasons (Gainey, Guy Carbonneau, Kirk Muller, Doug Jarvis) one might think there's a bit of Texas in Montreal. (I am sure that statement is completely abhorrent to most in Quebec and I would be reminded that all were Canadiens before they had worked in Dallas)....but I can't help but wonder if they aren't looking south again at Dallas' prized, Jere Lehtinen as the solution to what's missing up front. The 3-time Selke winner is in his last year of contract with Dallas but the Stars are expecting to have him re-up on the cheap (as he previously did) to stay with the organization...and of course, remind the player's union that player value depends on more than a dollar sign.
• Perhaps Olli Jokinen would be a good pursuit for Montreal to fill the void up front and have immediate impact.
  

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

• The case in Pittsburgh is simple because it is not. They have fired the coach this year after a fantastic start and then a free-fall. They have missed Crosby for more games due to injury this year than they would have expected. They have the NHL's leading point-getter in Evgeni Malkin who is simply a machine. They have thoughts all over the place about how to climb back up, far enough northwards, in the standings to ensure another chance to repeat as Eastern Conference Finalists. To wit, it's easy because anything they do at the trade deadline is going to fee like a playoff push only and everything else will need to be sorted out in the off-season.
• Miroslav Satan was put on waivers this morning, reflecting the season-long disappointment in his play. It has been rumored the Pens have also discussed reacquiring Jarkko Ruutu. Rumors have also been floated about Jordan Staal being moved and frankly, just shouldn't be entertained as he is a fantastic third line center.
• Pittsburgh already acquired LW Chris Kunitz from Anaheim in trading away D-Man Ryan Whitney last week so what the team pulls out of the sleeves for the deadline will be a matter of 'what helps us out now' because they really don't want to repeat the follies of the East and go from playing in the Stanley Cup Finals last season and not qualifying this year. OGA is still confident this team will be in post-season play.

SAN JOSE SHARKS

• Seriously, does this team really need to add anything for a good run at the playoffs? The fans have been expecting this team to take it all the past couple seasons and have been sorely let down. I could understand if the organization is tempted to tweak and adjust here or there for the long haul, but what is that saying folks use about something not broken? I say don't mess with chemistry - whether you want to 'fix' it or not, it's there. BUT...
  
• It appears the Sharks had two scouts at last night's Colorado at New York Islanders game. The speculation is the under-performing Jonathan Cheechoo may be on the block in a deal to bring Ryan Smyth to San Jose. But Smyth is scheduled to make over $16M in the next three seasons which is big chunk of change for any team to take on considering cap limits and the turning economy (and what it may mean to NHL revenue when it comes time for ticket-holders to re-up for the 2009/10 season). Smyth is also well-quoted as saying he loves it in Colorado and would prefer to stay. Obviously, it is speculation and EVERY team is always on the lookout for the 'what-ifs'. That's why scouts get employed...
• UPDATE: At 1:50 PM today, David Pollak posted on his SJS Blog, Working the Corners, he spoke with GM Doug Wilson and..."No matter what may be circulating out there, Jonathan Cheechoo isn’t going anywhere. 'That player is not in play.' " So, it begs the question, which player(s) are in play...?
  

CALGARY FLAMES

• There's not much going on in Calgary...except for winning. It appears the organization will take a pass this year on any big moves as the team they have is performing well and the expect the call-ups from the AHL to suffice while playing through injuries to Rene Bourque, Daymond Langkow and now Todd Bertuzzi.
• The Flames did however grab Calgary native, D-Man, Lawrence Nycholat off waivers from the Canucks this morning to bolster the D.

COL & FLA at Game 60(-ish)

Before launching into more analysis at the Game 60(-ish) mark, a couple of notes:

First, thanks go out to the guys at The Program for having us on their Blog Talk Radio show last week. It was fun, and we look forward to doing it again soon! By the way, they've got a new site, with lots of good info and videos. Check it out!

Second, I want to mention a site that's caught our (collective) eye of late: Puck Money provides a wealth of information on attendance figures around the league, as well as other money-related matters, such as updates on the status of the Lighthouse Project on Long Island. We like both this site and The Program so much, we've posted links on the OGA Home Page, so...Check.Them.Out.

And with that, let us take a look at a few more teams at Game 60(-ish):

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Currently 15th in the Western Conference, and Colorado has certainly earned their Tee Time. These aren't the Avs of old - they lack depth, and Paul Stastny's broken arm (26 games missed) and Joe Sakic's lost battle with a snowblower (48 games and counting) have mortally wounded the team this season. And let's face it: Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft combined don't make one starting goalie, as evidenced by the team GAA of 3.08 (27th in the NHL), despite only allowing 29.3 shots/gm (12th). It's not as if the defense isn't helping out - the Avs have blocked 1,001 shots so far this season (4th). There's plenty of blame to go around for Colorado's PK efficiency of 78.8% (25th), however.

The aforementioned lengthy absences of Stastny and Sakic have hurt Colorado on both sides of the puck: The Avs are scoring just 2.62 G/gm (T-21st), and the PP is an anemic 16.7% (22nd). They've struggled to win faceoffs, too, and must hope the return of Stastny will bring an improvement to their 48.4% on the draw (24th).

If there's one bright spot this season, it's that Colorado is the only team in the league still undefeated when leading after two periods. The bad news is they've only led after two periods 18 times in 63 games. Without question, the Avs are sellers at the trade deadline, as they look forward to re-tooling over the summer.

FLORIDA PANTHERS: Over their last eight games, Florida has done a spot-on impression of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, going 4-4-0 in the following manner:

Capitals@ Panthers 4 - 2 L
Devils@ Panthers 0 - 4 W
Blackhawks@ Panthers 4 - 0 L
Bruins@ Panthers 0 - 2 W
Panthers@ Bruins 1 - 6 L
Panthers@ Rangers 2 - 1 W
Panthers@ Devils 2 - 7 L
Panthers@ Capitals 6 - 2 W

So much to say about this, so little time...Goals Allowed in the 4 wins: 0,0,1,2. Goals Allowed in the 4 losses: 4,4,6,7. Are the Panthers cutting costs somehow by only playing defense every other game? Also, if we needed proof positive that the Hockey Gods hate Florida, this schedule provides: 2 games each against the top 3 teams in the East, plus 1 game against Chicago for good measure? Oh, yeah - and 1 "easy" night, at the Garden against a pissed-off Ranger squad. Judas Priest, that's a tough two weeks! Give the Cats credit for winning half.

After 63 games, Florida finds themselves 9 games over .500 (using NHLmath - patent pending), 6th in the East and very much In The Curve. Aside from the Dynamic (goalie) Duo of Vokoun and Anderson, who've combined to give the team a GAA of 2.65 (6th), how are the Panthers getting the job done? Can you say, "Scoring by Committee"? Eleven Panthers have 10 or more goals after Game 63, with Ville Peltonen being the most recent inductee into the club. While team scoring could stand improvement (2.76 G/gm - 17th in the NHL), it actually has improved over last season's 2.57 G/gm (20th). Who would've thought that trading Olli Jokinen would actually boost Florida's scoring? A certain Blogger Who Shall Remain Nameless, that's who. Said Nameless Blogger, way back in September:

While some might view the Olli Jokinen trade as a step back for the Panthers, OGA believes the upcoming season will prove the wisdom of the move. Not only did Florida receive two solid defensemen in return for their Captain, but they also sent a message to the remaining forwards: We believe in your ability to get the job done, and now is the time for you to step up. With a beefed-up blueline and a bunch of swift-skating kids up front, the Panthers will be a tougher team to play against in 08-09.

Don't think for a minute the Panthers would've made the promise they did if management didn't believe they'd make the playoffs this year. The Bouwmeester question will be answered, one way or another, this week (I'm betting on Jacques Martin keeping Jay Bo in a bid to make some playoff noise this year), and the team will be able to put that distraction behind them and focus on the home stretch and nailing down a playoff berth. Will the Panthers make the playoffs for the first time since the 99-00 season? The Magic 8-ball says, "Sources say YES".

Tomorrow, look for Game 60(-ish) analysis of the Kings and Blackhawks. Until then, ponder this: In previous Game 60 posts, I criticized both the Rangers and Predators for their lack of scoring. In their first games after my posts, they won, 6-1 and 8-0, respectively. Can I light a fire, or what?

Take me back to On Goal Analysis

Pre-Game 60 Analysis Notes

The OGA Game 60 Analysis is coming very soon, but we wanted you to keep an eye on a few things for today's games of importance to the Playoff picture...

BOSTON can come within an OTL of mathematically clinching a Playoff berth with a win over WASHINGTON today. The CAPS are within five wins of doing likewise.

If they are going to clench a Playoff berth during the Game 70 evaluation period, FLORIDA has
very little leeway with the 'W' column over the next nine games. Based on current play, however, we like their chances of getting into the Playoffs barring major changes that undo team chemistry (read: suck it up and do not trade Bouwmeester).

DALLAS is still meeting the On Goal Analysis Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) requirements to hang in the fight for a Playoff berth in the West but needs to break their three-game losing skid.
ANAHEIM has been declared at Tee Time - eliminated from the Playoffs - already. Think the DUCKS are still strong in the hunt? They must win their next seven games just to slide back up In The Curve, or about average play for a team.

For both TORONTO and OTTAWA, today's contest loser - if in regulation - ensures they remain very mired at Tee Time.

A loss by the RANGERS against COLORADO today will continue their potential slide from the earliest clinching of a Playoff berth this season toward obscurity come mid-April.

A pesky ISLANDERS team could help erase the slim cushion BUFFALO enjoys for remaining in the Playoff hunt. The SABRES are helped today by an idle PITTSBURGH team, but the PENS slide into DALLAS tomorrow and could gain ground on BUFFALO.

SAN JOSE will have their hands full with a MONTREAL team that is riding a three-game winning streak and needs to win about 2-of-every-3 tilts by Game 70 to hold their middle-conference ranking in the East.

CAROLINA needs eight wins in their next seven games to clinch a Playoff berth. That's right, 8-in-7. That being impossible, they will continue to shoot for excellence and move toward eliminating BUFFALO mathematically. Today's tilt will not be a cakewalk considering ATLANTA has won four of their last six games.

A regulation loss by NASHVILLE against DETROIT today wipes out their ability to do more than remain at Tee Time as OGA called on 6 January. DETROIT owns a 2-1 advantage in this series so far this season and has captured the last two games. But the PREDS have won their last three, and the WINGS, their last two. This should be a good matchup today.

ST. LOUIS has been on a strong push over the last 19 games as they have failed to garner any points only twice in that span. The BLUES' ability to fight back into a Playoff position would have to eclipse that of the CAPITALS' most prolific comeback against the PQC last season, and PHOENIX could help play the role of spolier this evening by walking away with a regulation win.

Finally, the MINNESOTA/EDMONTON tilt looks to be a great battle of two teams on the cusp of the post-season. The OILERS needs to win 2-of-3 to keep in the hunt, and the WILD need not lose or it will continue to be a race to Game 82 to retain the Playoff berth OGA says they clinched on 1 November.

Some great games today with Playoff significance. Enjoy!

OGA's Game 60 Analysis will be complete and published before the end of the weekend...