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Sunday, January 23, 2011

OGA Notes - 23 January

The OGA crew has been really busy all season, so you have seen us mostly on our web site at ongoalanalysis.com and heard us on JabberHockey. But it doesn't mean we still are not researching the NHL as a whole to find the essence of the Win and how it relates to who is and is not in the Playoffs as far out from the mathematical call as possible.

Or are we? In the last few days, we re-defined the mathematical call. We have determined how to account for all teams total points through our Playoff Point Predictor (P3). On display at our home page is a listing of the Top 8 teams in each conference, their projected, total points and their last position from the night before, all right under our Hot Picture of the night. Add the P3 to the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), and you get a highly accurate prognostication of who will be playing on into late April this season. And, we might add, GAMES before it is mathematically settled.

We have also been following something called the Black And Blue Schedule all season long. The premise is for the 30 times the NHL scheduled two teams to play back-to-back/home-and-away this season, the second game is likely to be won by the team who lost the opener, in OT or a SO and with more total PIMs. In effect, the pair of game, uninterrupted by other opponents, potentially has that same aire of competition as a playoff game.

While overall this notion is only correct a bit over one-third of the time (.373), it is interesting to note a few things here:

1. Most correct in the prediction is the increase in PIMs in contest #2 where that prediction has been correct eight of 17 times (.471).

2. Second most accurate has been that the opposite team wins in Game 2 (seven-of-17 for .412).

3. Lastly is the OT/SO percentage with only four-of-17/.235 games being correct with the overall premise. While the percentage of OT/SO games is down a bit this year, it's only by an estimated 13 games from last season. So this category is not as good a call as the original theory might have suggested.

We DID find an interesting off-shoot of the theory we did not initially expect, however. Of the 17 games to date, 10 (.588) have ended in a one-goal decision. The current NHL average is approximately 32%. So almost double the Black And Blue Schedule games end with a one goal difference than the overall NHL average.

Just a couple of notes this morning from On Goal Analysis for your consideration.

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