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Monday, November 15, 2010

OGA’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) At The 15’s

All but BOS have made it to or past the Game 15 (G15) mark, and CHI has made it to G20. Where does the NHL stand in On Goal Analysis terms?

Chasing Stanley

From the G10 call, a glance at the OGA Home Page tells you MTL, TBL and STL are Chasing Stanley, or IN the playoffs in 2011. OGA knows right now of one more team that will be announced as Chasing Stanley at G20, and another three that should relatively easily join the ranks as well (that’s a total of two from each Conference). There are two more on the bubble (again, split between the Conferences) that are likely Chasing Stanley candidates depending on how they finish out the G20 stretch. If all of those teams make it to this level by G20, that total of nine is behind the average of Chasing Stanley calls at G20 by 2.4 teams. This reflects the parity that has crept into the NHL this season bigger than ever. For the naming of those teams, keep your eye on the OGA Home Page for G20 updates.

In The Curve

The teams playing just about average fall in this category and represent the old Bell Curve in PQC calls as most teams rest here for about half of the season.

In the East, we are tracking six teams solidly at Chasing Stanley at G20. There are three more on the bubble that could slip just below In The Curve at Dusting Off Clubs or as low as Tee Time. Out West, CHI was called In The Curve last night at their G20 mark. In that conference, there are another nine teams with solid shots at In The Curve and one more on the bubble for something lower. Again, those calls will be on the OGA Home Page as team G20’s arrive on the calendar.

Tee Time

And we are looking at possibly two teams hitting the Tee Time mark – eliminated from Playoff contention – at G20. Again, underscoring League parity, we average 2.6 Tee Time calls by G20, so two teams called OUT would be just a little below average.

This Week’s PQC Calendar

G20 PQC calls this week mark up the calendar pretty well. Last night, CHI hit G20 with an In The Curve call. You are looking at a schedule like this through next Sunday:

MON – None







During this week, we will see some Chasing Stanley, possibly a little Tee Time, and a lot of In The Curve action as we will have more than 50% of the NHL’s G20 call by then.

Just A Little More Insight

And just to bring you a little deeper into where we are with our assessments, below by conference is our own, internal power ranking order through games ending Sunday night, 15 NOV:

Eastern Conference – WSH, PHI, MTL, BOS, NYR, OTT, TBL, PIT, FLA, CAR, ATL, TOR, BUF, NJD and NYI

Western Conference – LAK, DET, STL, VAN, CBJ, SJS, ANA, NSH, MIN, PHX, DAL, COL, CHI, CGY and EDM

Teams in bold are your conference Top 8 we project out to G82 based on how they are performing. We see the West similar to last season where it might just take more points than average to earn that #8 seed. We also see at the moment that the East may fall out a lot like last season where you can solidly pick the teams who will be Chasing Stanley relatively early with a high degree of accuracy.


And that is your G15 Playoff Qualifying Curve summary for 2010/11. There’s plenty more Hockey to play this season and nobody quite knows where the next Blues-like eight game winning, or Isles-like 10 game losing, streak lurks. Stay tuned to OGA for your calls of IN or OUT of the playoffs at the earliest possible moment.

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