For those of you who didn't read this post or haven't seen The Sixth Sense, Dr. Malcolm Crowe was Bruce Willis' character in the aforementioned film. Just like Dr. Crowe, the Florida Panthers don't know they're dead (as far as the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs are concerned). With their Game Ten loss to Ottawa, On Goal Analysis calls Florida at TEE TIME - OUT of the playoffs.
Obviously, this is a big disappointment, particularly after the Panthers came this [ ] close to making the playoffs last season, losing the 8th seed in the East to the (unworthy) Montreal Canadiens in a tie-breaker (there's no doubt in my mind that the Cats would've been MUCH more competitive against the Bruins last April). Unfortunately, not only are they NOT building on last season's almost-success, but Florida seems to have taken a step backwards. Key factors in the Panthers' demise:
1. A slow start for David Booth (9GP, 2-1-3, -5), followed by a concussion just as he seemed to be getting in gear.
2. Uneven goaltending. Thus far, Scott Clemmensen has not met expectations raised by his performance in New Jersey last season. Of course, he doesn't have the Devils playing in front of him, either. Tomas Vokoun simply hasn't been good enough for Panthers fans to forget about Craig Anderson.
3. The stats, man, the stats: In every key statistical category considered by OGA, Florida ranks no higher than 19th in the NHL. The two most important categories, however, tell you all you need to know: 2.10 Goals/game (28th) and 3.80 Goals Against/game (29th). In fact, the Panthers rank 28th or lower in 7 of 10 key stats. Ugh.
Though we've called Florida OUT, there's still a sliver of hope. After all, On Goal Analysis' Playoff Qualifying Curve-based calls are only right about 90% of the time, and the Panthers haven't dropped below the level of the PQC-busting 2007-08 Washington Capitals. We'll continue to monitor Florida throughout the season, and let you know if anything changes.
On a personal note, we OGA Boys really enjoyed having Whale4ever, aka Donny, of litterboxcats.com on JabberHockey (the OGA BlogTalkRadio show) last weekend. While we had a rather long list of questions for Donny, the hit on David Booth was (naturally) the primary topic. OGA extends to young Mr. Booth our best wishes for a speedy and full recovery, and not just because we have him on several of our fantasy teams.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
1.
4.
is
AT THE GAME
OGA's game2watch tonight sees the Toronto Maple Leafs in a rare appearance at the AAC in Dallas.
And the On Goal Analysis crew will be at the game with one representative watching from the Press Box.
For the first time in two years, former Star Niklas Hagman returns to Dallas. Hagman is one of the reasons the Leafs are beginning to play with a little more confidence and had a hat trick in their previous game in Anaheim.
Another item OGA will be watching is the play of the Monster. Remember, when it came down to the wire, Jonas Gustavsson was trying to choose whether to sign with Dallas or Toronto in the off-season. Well, he comes to Dallas at least for tonight. Tonight's game will have some added flare, I am sure.
So now, we have to face the Maple Leafs after they simply roasted the Ducks the other night?
Just great. The Stars, who are not playing poorly, are playing inconsistently as they work to understand and implement their new style and game plan under the new coaching staff.
We haven't seen this many Dallas defensemen charge the net like we have this season since the near-riot of the 10-cent Beer Night in Fort Worth against the Dallas Black Hawks.
The Dallas Stars are currently third in the Pacific with 14 points, only two behind leading Los Angeles. But the Stars have yet two win two games back to back this season. It's early, but don't you know they could use a two-game winning streak?
And don't you know that's exactly what's on the mind of the Toronto Maple Leafs today?
Both teams, coming off of big wins, will be hungry tonight. And the OGA Crew will be on hand to watch, blog, report and tweet the game to you.
Whilst Frozen Pill and Big Tex will indeed be happily planted in the un-cushioned seats, The Colonel will be in the Press Box, courtesy of Pierre McGuire and will be watching the action as TSN brings the game to the TV viewers. So we hope to bring you some unique insight, from various views around the American Airline Center, as we attend the game tonight.
Please join us on The OGA Blogs, follow our Twitter accounts and join us tonight as we surround the game.
And obviously, a huge thanks to Mr. McGuire for hooking a Colonel up.
Follow The Colonel on Twitter here. @Pelican4
Follow Big Tex on Twitter here. @OGAs_BigTex
Follow On Goal Analysis on Twitter here. @ongoalanalysis
And if you happen to be AT the game this evening, click here and let's meet up!
http://www.nhlgametag.com/index.html
And remember, as always, check our homepage for the latest for where the teams are falling in on the OGA PQC Status Spectrum. You know you need some.
Take me to www.ongoalanalysis.com
1.
4.
1.
4.
1.
4.
Yesterday's JabberHockey is archived and ready for the listening. If you weren't able to join us live yesterday, make sure to mark ye calendars for each Sunday at 5.30ET and bookmark the JabberHockey page here so you can join us each week.
Yesterday's broadcast was a dandy. We were joined by Whale4ever from www.litterboxcats.com, the must-read Florida Panthers blog featured on the SB Nation network. Obviously, we had to learn the latest on David Booth and we discussed 'the hit' and the local reaction.
Whale also did a great job bringing us all inside the State of Hockey in Florida - what's new, what's different and how the game is growing.
We even talked about the 'Get Well Soon' card Craig Anderson sends south from Colorado.
And for the first time in the young season, OGA was able to discuss some of our IN/OUT calls made this previous week. It's time to evaluate the teams hitting the 10-game mark and we already have some ideas who you will see in the playoffs next April.
You can listen in on the discussion as OGA claims the Colorado Avalanche have met our PQC criteria for an appearance in the 09-10 NHL Playoffs and we call them at 'Chasing Stanley'.
Now how's that for hanging them out there?
And we have other OGA Calls you might be surprised by. So give a listen, won't you?
Just go to the On Goal Analysis home page and find the archive player half way down the left column. Give ye olde play button the clickity-click and listen in. We appreciate it and think you will, too.
And join us each Sunday on JabberHockey! OGA Knows. And you can, too.
take me to www.ongoalanalysis.com
1.
4.
1.
4.
1.
4.
1.
4.
Friday, October 30, 2009
1. 4.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
1. 4.
Oh, Great. Stars face super-duper Maple Leafs Tonight
isAT THE GAME
OGA's game2watch tonight sees the Toronto Maple Leafs in a rare appearance at the AAC in Dallas.
And the On Goal Analysis crew will be at the game with one representative watching from the Press Box.
For the first time in two years, former Star Niklas Hagman returns to Dallas. Hagman is one of the reasons the Leafs are beginning to play with a little more confidence and had a hat trick in their previous game in Anaheim.
Another item OGA will be watching is the play of the Monster. Remember, when it came down to the wire, Jonas Gustavsson was trying to choose whether to sign with Dallas or Toronto in the off-season. Well, he comes to Dallas at least for tonight. Tonight's game will have some added flare, I am sure.
So now, we have to face the Maple Leafs after they simply roasted the Ducks the other night?
Just great. The Stars, who are not playing poorly, are playing inconsistently as they work to understand and implement their new style and game plan under the new coaching staff.
We haven't seen this many Dallas defensemen charge the net like we have this season since the near-riot of the 10-cent Beer Night in Fort Worth against the Dallas Black Hawks.
The Dallas Stars are currently third in the Pacific with 14 points, only two behind leading Los Angeles. But the Stars have yet two win two games back to back this season. It's early, but don't you know they could use a two-game winning streak?
And don't you know that's exactly what's on the mind of the Toronto Maple Leafs today?
h/t to Frozen War Room
Both teams, coming off of big wins, will be hungry tonight. And the OGA Crew will be on hand to watch, blog, report and tweet the game to you.
Whilst Frozen Pill and Big Tex will indeed be happily planted in the un-cushioned seats, The Colonel will be in the Press Box, courtesy of Pierre McGuire and will be watching the action as TSN brings the game to the TV viewers. So we hope to bring you some unique insight, from various views around the American Airline Center, as we attend the game tonight.
Please join us on The OGA Blogs, follow our Twitter accounts and join us tonight as we surround the game.
And obviously, a huge thanks to Mr. McGuire for hooking a Colonel up.
Follow The Colonel on Twitter here. @Pelican4
Follow Big Tex on Twitter here. @OGAs_BigTex
Follow On Goal Analysis on Twitter here. @ongoalanalysis
And if you happen to be AT the game this evening, click here and let's meet up!
http://www.nhlgametag.com/index.html
And remember, as always, check our homepage for the latest for where the teams are falling in on the OGA PQC Status Spectrum. You know you need some.
Take me to www.ongoalanalysis.com
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Big Bustin' Dufflin vs The Wild Things
You know, it's just an 'update a previous blogging adventure' kind of day.
If you didn't see it on the page, you have to read Big Tex's update on the 'Game-Winning Save' Theory posted this afternoon.
And then I saw something that required a bit of a retro-fit post, as well...
On two previous occasions, I had found reason to recount the pure hockey splendor of having attended my first live game at Madison Square Garden and watching the fabled Blueshirts step out of the tunnel and emerge on the ice, basked in the spotlight while Arcade Fire's 'Wake Up', cranked to the hilt, lifted the home crowd's cheering at the opening of the 08-09 season to the Hockey Heavens...
It was during our OGA Road Trip, the First where the On Goal Analysis crew traveled to New York for 5 NHL games in 4 days. For a recant of that first, now one year old post, click here. If really interested, you can listen to our archived hockey talk show, where we reminisced on our big Field Trip, on it's first anniversary here.
I revisited my moment of hockey nirvana for a second time here on the blog during the off-season when one thought led to another and I began thinking of the use of modern music to help sell the game.
(I will have an update on that topic coming later in the season, too. And all I'll hint at here is the fact an Austin, Texas 4-piece has dominated the ear-waves for music used to promote NHL hockey the last couple of years...)
But the next day after my second post, I saw the just-released trailer for the new Spike Jonze movie version of Maurice Sendak's childhood classic, 'Where the Wild Things Are'. And they were using 'Wake Up' in the promo. It was a nice little convergence of things I quite enjoy and thought, 'cool.'
Then I see this today. And it all comes full circle. Big Bustin' Dufflin is Max without his Wolf Suit.
Simply Awesome. Go Hockey.
Dustin Byfuglien's glance to the side and smirk at the end of delivering his line lets you know just how much he enjoyed checking that Wild Thing into the glass...and how hard it was for him to keep a straight face.
Seriously, though, I heard the play is under review by the league and there may be an undisclosed fine for Big Buffy to pay in the foreign currency of the Scuderi. Or perhaps a two-game suspension for committing the Ott of War on an unsuspecting hockey Monster.
Unclear message means message not heard. Understand?
But seriously, message way heard with the great commercial previewing the Chicago/Minnesota game. Kudos.
And if you didn't click to read the Frozen Pill August 09 post I referenced above, you missed the video of the live performance of the song, wherein they are joined by David Bowie. Definitely worth a listen if you care for such things as great songs.
If you didn't see it on the page, you have to read Big Tex's update on the 'Game-Winning Save' Theory posted this afternoon.
And then I saw something that required a bit of a retro-fit post, as well...
On two previous occasions, I had found reason to recount the pure hockey splendor of having attended my first live game at Madison Square Garden and watching the fabled Blueshirts step out of the tunnel and emerge on the ice, basked in the spotlight while Arcade Fire's 'Wake Up', cranked to the hilt, lifted the home crowd's cheering at the opening of the 08-09 season to the Hockey Heavens...
It was during our OGA Road Trip, the First where the On Goal Analysis crew traveled to New York for 5 NHL games in 4 days. For a recant of that first, now one year old post, click here. If really interested, you can listen to our archived hockey talk show, where we reminisced on our big Field Trip, on it's first anniversary here.
I revisited my moment of hockey nirvana for a second time here on the blog during the off-season when one thought led to another and I began thinking of the use of modern music to help sell the game.
(I will have an update on that topic coming later in the season, too. And all I'll hint at here is the fact an Austin, Texas 4-piece has dominated the ear-waves for music used to promote NHL hockey the last couple of years...)
But the next day after my second post, I saw the just-released trailer for the new Spike Jonze movie version of Maurice Sendak's childhood classic, 'Where the Wild Things Are'. And they were using 'Wake Up' in the promo. It was a nice little convergence of things I quite enjoy and thought, 'cool.'
Then I see this today. And it all comes full circle. Big Bustin' Dufflin is Max without his Wolf Suit.
Simply Awesome. Go Hockey.
Dustin Byfuglien's glance to the side and smirk at the end of delivering his line lets you know just how much he enjoyed checking that Wild Thing into the glass...and how hard it was for him to keep a straight face.
Seriously, though, I heard the play is under review by the league and there may be an undisclosed fine for Big Buffy to pay in the foreign currency of the Scuderi. Or perhaps a two-game suspension for committing the Ott of War on an unsuspecting hockey Monster.
Unclear message means message not heard. Understand?
But seriously, message way heard with the great commercial previewing the Chicago/Minnesota game. Kudos.
And if you didn't click to read the Frozen Pill August 09 post I referenced above, you missed the video of the live performance of the song, wherein they are joined by David Bowie. Definitely worth a listen if you care for such things as great songs.
The Game-Winning Save UPDATE - by Big Tex
On the first day of the 2009-10 season, I wrote about a theory I’d developed last season and called it the Game-Winning Save (GWS). For those of you who don’t feel up to reading my original post, here’s GWS in a nutshell:
For more about the reasoning behind this, you’ll just have to read the original post. In the meantime, after watching a great many games over the first three weeks of the season, I have some results to report:
GAME 1: (Saturday, 24 OCT) San Jose 4 @ Atlanta 3. Evander Kane scores 40 seconds into the 3rd period to make the score 4-3. 48 seconds later, Rich Peverley hits the post.
GAME 2: (Monday, 26 OCT) Islanders 2 @ Montreal 3 (OT). Montreal leads, 2-1, and with 7:25 remaining in the 3rd, Bruno Gervais hits the post. The Isles score just over three minutes later to tie the game, but Montreal finishes them off in OT.
According to the Accounting Department, that makes two games in which the GWS theory has proven true. It hasn’t been disproven (yet), but there’s always an exception to the rule. If you should happen to see a Game-Winning Save-related event – whether proving or disproving the theory – please let me know, either via email (matt@ongoalanalysis.com) or Tweet (@OGAs_BigTex). Before you go emailing or Tweeting, however, there are a couple of rules to keep in mind:
1. The shot off the post must take place in the 3rd period.
2. At the time of the shot, the shooting team must be trailing by one goal.
Simple, right? So far this season, I’ve only seen the above criteria met in two games. It’s not easy, primarily because shots off the post aren’t normally tracked as a game statistic. What it boils down to, then, is something you have to see with your own eyes, either by watching the game live or in highlights (thank you, NHL Network). I’m going to track this to the best of my ability, but feel free to let me know of any instances you witness of a team either proving or dis-proving the theory. I’ll post more updates as conditions warrant.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
If a team trails by one goal at any point in the 3rd period and takes a shot which hits the post and does not go in the net, that team loses the game every time.
For more about the reasoning behind this, you’ll just have to read the original post. In the meantime, after watching a great many games over the first three weeks of the season, I have some results to report:
GAME 1: (Saturday, 24 OCT) San Jose 4 @ Atlanta 3. Evander Kane scores 40 seconds into the 3rd period to make the score 4-3. 48 seconds later, Rich Peverley hits the post.
GAME 2: (Monday, 26 OCT) Islanders 2 @ Montreal 3 (OT). Montreal leads, 2-1, and with 7:25 remaining in the 3rd, Bruno Gervais hits the post. The Isles score just over three minutes later to tie the game, but Montreal finishes them off in OT.
According to the Accounting Department, that makes two games in which the GWS theory has proven true. It hasn’t been disproven (yet), but there’s always an exception to the rule. If you should happen to see a Game-Winning Save-related event – whether proving or disproving the theory – please let me know, either via email (matt@ongoalanalysis.com) or Tweet (@OGAs_BigTex). Before you go emailing or Tweeting, however, there are a couple of rules to keep in mind:
1. The shot off the post must take place in the 3rd period.
2. At the time of the shot, the shooting team must be trailing by one goal.
Simple, right? So far this season, I’ve only seen the above criteria met in two games. It’s not easy, primarily because shots off the post aren’t normally tracked as a game statistic. What it boils down to, then, is something you have to see with your own eyes, either by watching the game live or in highlights (thank you, NHL Network). I’m going to track this to the best of my ability, but feel free to let me know of any instances you witness of a team either proving or dis-proving the theory. I’ll post more updates as conditions warrant.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Monday, October 26, 2009
25OCT JabberHockey Archived and Available
Yesterday's JabberHockey is archived and ready for the listening. If you weren't able to join us live yesterday, make sure to mark ye calendars for each Sunday at 5.30ET and bookmark the JabberHockey page here so you can join us each week.
Yesterday's broadcast was a dandy. We were joined by Whale4ever from www.litterboxcats.com, the must-read Florida Panthers blog featured on the SB Nation network. Obviously, we had to learn the latest on David Booth and we discussed 'the hit' and the local reaction.
Whale also did a great job bringing us all inside the State of Hockey in Florida - what's new, what's different and how the game is growing.
We even talked about the 'Get Well Soon' card Craig Anderson sends south from Colorado.
And for the first time in the young season, OGA was able to discuss some of our IN/OUT calls made this previous week. It's time to evaluate the teams hitting the 10-game mark and we already have some ideas who you will see in the playoffs next April.
You can listen in on the discussion as OGA claims the Colorado Avalanche have met our PQC criteria for an appearance in the 09-10 NHL Playoffs and we call them at 'Chasing Stanley'.
Now how's that for hanging them out there?
And we have other OGA Calls you might be surprised by. So give a listen, won't you?
Just go to the On Goal Analysis home page and find the archive player half way down the left column. Give ye olde play button the clickity-click and listen in. We appreciate it and think you will, too.
And join us each Sunday on JabberHockey! OGA Knows. And you can, too.
take me to www.ongoalanalysis.com
Saturday, October 24, 2009
The Colorado Avalanche are...IN?!?!? - by Big Tex
The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2008-09 season dead last in the Western Conference and 28th in the NHL. If you read my Season Preview Report on the Avs, you'll notice that I make no mention whatsoever of the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In fact, if you told me back in September that Colorado would be the first team called CHASING STANLEY (IN the playoffs) by On Goal Analysis, I would've launched into a classic song:
Well...take an umbrella when you leave the house today, because elephants are a-flyin': With a record of 7-1-2 through their first ten games, the Colorado Avalanche are now CHASING STANLEY!
How can OGA make such a call, you ask? Well, it's fairly simple: The Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) don't lie, baby. It may be mistaken on occasion, but it never lies outright. Last season, in fact, it was right almost 90% of the time. The OGA Boys will hang their hats (and reputations, such as they are) on that, any day of the week.
If you're not wowed by the PQC (though you should be), consider this: The Avalanche are currently tied for 7th in the NHL in goal scoring, averaging 3.40/gm...They're tied with Calgary and Atlanta for the best Power Play (28.6%)...The Avs' Penalty Kill, at 81.4%, is a respectable 11th...And, last but certainly not least, Colorado is allowing just 2.30 goals/gm (4th). These statistical nuggets, when combined, add up to 1st place in the Western Conference and (according to the PQC) a berth in the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
That's one down, twenty-nine to go. More teams' fates may be decided tonight, and for ten measly bucks, you can get a season subscription to OGA's Daily Tip-In Report (DITR) and be the first kid on your block to know who's IN and who's OUT.
And as long as we're going out on a limb here, I'm going to pick Craig Anderson for the Vezina Trophy. The Avs live or die with him, and so far, they're livin' large.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Well...take an umbrella when you leave the house today, because elephants are a-flyin': With a record of 7-1-2 through their first ten games, the Colorado Avalanche are now CHASING STANLEY!
How can OGA make such a call, you ask? Well, it's fairly simple: The Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) don't lie, baby. It may be mistaken on occasion, but it never lies outright. Last season, in fact, it was right almost 90% of the time. The OGA Boys will hang their hats (and reputations, such as they are) on that, any day of the week.
If you're not wowed by the PQC (though you should be), consider this: The Avalanche are currently tied for 7th in the NHL in goal scoring, averaging 3.40/gm...They're tied with Calgary and Atlanta for the best Power Play (28.6%)...The Avs' Penalty Kill, at 81.4%, is a respectable 11th...And, last but certainly not least, Colorado is allowing just 2.30 goals/gm (4th). These statistical nuggets, when combined, add up to 1st place in the Western Conference and (according to the PQC) a berth in the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
That's one down, twenty-nine to go. More teams' fates may be decided tonight, and for ten measly bucks, you can get a season subscription to OGA's Daily Tip-In Report (DITR) and be the first kid on your block to know who's IN and who's OUT.
And as long as we're going out on a limb here, I'm going to pick Craig Anderson for the Vezina Trophy. The Avs live or die with him, and so far, they're livin' large.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Friday, October 23, 2009
New York Rangers at Game 10 - by Big Tex
Thursday night, the New York Rangers played their tenth game of the 2009-10 season, which means it's time for a team status report from On Goal Analysis:
After the first furlong, the Rangers are 7-3-0 (14 pts), 2nd in the Atlantic Division (2 pts behind Pittsburgh) and 4th overall in the Eastern Conference. At Game Ten last season, OGA called the Blueshirts CHASING STANLEY- IN the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This season, however, back-to-back home losses to San Jose and New Jersey have given us pause, so we'll call the Rangers SHARPENING SKATES at Game Ten. What does this mean? Well, you could read The Tao of OGA for an explanation, or you could simply finish reading this sentence, which says that it means the Rangers are playing above the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), but just below the level required for us to call (with almost 90% accuracy) them IN the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
PLUS:
The Rangers goal-scoring woes of last season appear to be history, as they're currently potting an average of 3.70 per game (3rd in the NHL). At the other end of the ice, they're only allowing 2.60 per game (5th).
New York's Power Play, which last year was a pitiful 13.9% (29th in the NHL), is currently firing on all cylinders at 27.3% (T - 6th). The Penalty Kill (86.0%, 5th), meanwhile, hasn't dropped off like it was expected to following the offseason departures of Blair Betts and Fredrik Sjostrom.
On an individual level, the Blueshirts have many pluses: Marian Gaborik (10GP, 7-6-13, +5) has been everything Glen Sather could've hoped for, and more (he hasn't missed a game...yet)...Ales Kotalik (10GP, 4-6-10, -3), who's never scored more than 25 goals in a season, is on pace to top 30...Vinny Prospal (10GP, 3-9-12, +5), reunited with coach John Tortorella and playing on Gaborik's line, has found new life in New York. Think he expected this? His player profile photo says it all...Rookie blueliner Michael Del Zotto (10GP, 4-5-9, +1) is just 19 years old, is quarterbacking the Rangers' Power Play, and is improving with every game...The list of "plus" players could go on, but you get the idea: The Rangers, both as a team and as individuals, are playing quite well right now. Before moving on to the minus section, however, I feel compelled to include Wade Redden (10GP, 1-3-4, +3) on this list. Last season, I bagged on him mercilessly, and he earned it. So far in 09-10, however, Redden has been a pleasant surprise. While he will never play at a level high enough to justify his monster contract, Redden has been solid - even dependable - in the early going, and Rangers fans should be pleased.
MINUS:
At this point, the only team stat worthy of genuine concern is Faceoff Percentage (48.4%, 23rd in the NHL). The Rangers must improve on the draw, both to generate more scoring chances in the offensive zone and to reduce the number of scoring chances allowed in their zone. Because they're scoring goals in bunches, the fact that the Blueshirts are only taking 29.6 shots per game (18th) isn't particularly alarming. It could indicate, however, a need to work on puck possession and sustained pressure in the offensive zone, as they seem to score quite a few goals off the rush.
As for individuals, Chris Higgins (10GP, 0-2-2, Even) is still searching for his first goal as a Ranger, and now finds himself on the 3rd line...Ryan Callahan (10GP, 2-3-5, +2) is doing the little things well, but so far isn't putting as many biscuits in baskets as hoped. To be fair, the Fickle Finger of Fate has been a factor, as in Callahan's broken-up breakaway against the Devils (a great diving poke-check by Oduya)...Michal Rozsival (10GP, 0-3-3, +1) earns a minus for spending the first several games looking like he didn't even want to be on the ice. In Game Ten, however, Rozy looked like a different player. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come.
THE NEXT TEN GAMES:
On the road again...New York plays seven of their next ten games on the road, including a three-game swing through Western Canada. Fortunately, the Rangers will have four days off after playing at Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary, as their next (home) opponent will be the speedy and surprising Atlanta Thrashers. Another bit of good fortune: there are no back-to-backs in this furlong. Other road games are at Montreal, the Islanders, Minnesota and Ottawa. In addition to Atlanta, the Rangers host Phoenix and Boston.
Look for the Blueshirts toughest road tests to come in Edmonton and Calgary. Back at MSG, however, don't expect any of the three games to be easy. This will be a challenging furlong for the Rangers, but from where they stand right now, it won't take much to push them over the top and force OGA to call them CHASING STANLEY at Game 20.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
After the first furlong, the Rangers are 7-3-0 (14 pts), 2nd in the Atlantic Division (2 pts behind Pittsburgh) and 4th overall in the Eastern Conference. At Game Ten last season, OGA called the Blueshirts CHASING STANLEY- IN the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This season, however, back-to-back home losses to San Jose and New Jersey have given us pause, so we'll call the Rangers SHARPENING SKATES at Game Ten. What does this mean? Well, you could read The Tao of OGA for an explanation, or you could simply finish reading this sentence, which says that it means the Rangers are playing above the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), but just below the level required for us to call (with almost 90% accuracy) them IN the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
PLUS:
The Rangers goal-scoring woes of last season appear to be history, as they're currently potting an average of 3.70 per game (3rd in the NHL). At the other end of the ice, they're only allowing 2.60 per game (5th).
New York's Power Play, which last year was a pitiful 13.9% (29th in the NHL), is currently firing on all cylinders at 27.3% (T - 6th). The Penalty Kill (86.0%, 5th), meanwhile, hasn't dropped off like it was expected to following the offseason departures of Blair Betts and Fredrik Sjostrom.
On an individual level, the Blueshirts have many pluses: Marian Gaborik (10GP, 7-6-13, +5) has been everything Glen Sather could've hoped for, and more (he hasn't missed a game...yet)...Ales Kotalik (10GP, 4-6-10, -3), who's never scored more than 25 goals in a season, is on pace to top 30...Vinny Prospal (10GP, 3-9-12, +5), reunited with coach John Tortorella and playing on Gaborik's line, has found new life in New York. Think he expected this? His player profile photo says it all...Rookie blueliner Michael Del Zotto (10GP, 4-5-9, +1) is just 19 years old, is quarterbacking the Rangers' Power Play, and is improving with every game...The list of "plus" players could go on, but you get the idea: The Rangers, both as a team and as individuals, are playing quite well right now. Before moving on to the minus section, however, I feel compelled to include Wade Redden (10GP, 1-3-4, +3) on this list. Last season, I bagged on him mercilessly, and he earned it. So far in 09-10, however, Redden has been a pleasant surprise. While he will never play at a level high enough to justify his monster contract, Redden has been solid - even dependable - in the early going, and Rangers fans should be pleased.
MINUS:
At this point, the only team stat worthy of genuine concern is Faceoff Percentage (48.4%, 23rd in the NHL). The Rangers must improve on the draw, both to generate more scoring chances in the offensive zone and to reduce the number of scoring chances allowed in their zone. Because they're scoring goals in bunches, the fact that the Blueshirts are only taking 29.6 shots per game (18th) isn't particularly alarming. It could indicate, however, a need to work on puck possession and sustained pressure in the offensive zone, as they seem to score quite a few goals off the rush.
As for individuals, Chris Higgins (10GP, 0-2-2, Even) is still searching for his first goal as a Ranger, and now finds himself on the 3rd line...Ryan Callahan (10GP, 2-3-5, +2) is doing the little things well, but so far isn't putting as many biscuits in baskets as hoped. To be fair, the Fickle Finger of Fate has been a factor, as in Callahan's broken-up breakaway against the Devils (a great diving poke-check by Oduya)...Michal Rozsival (10GP, 0-3-3, +1) earns a minus for spending the first several games looking like he didn't even want to be on the ice. In Game Ten, however, Rozy looked like a different player. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come.
THE NEXT TEN GAMES:
On the road again...New York plays seven of their next ten games on the road, including a three-game swing through Western Canada. Fortunately, the Rangers will have four days off after playing at Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary, as their next (home) opponent will be the speedy and surprising Atlanta Thrashers. Another bit of good fortune: there are no back-to-backs in this furlong. Other road games are at Montreal, the Islanders, Minnesota and Ottawa. In addition to Atlanta, the Rangers host Phoenix and Boston.
Look for the Blueshirts toughest road tests to come in Edmonton and Calgary. Back at MSG, however, don't expect any of the three games to be easy. This will be a challenging furlong for the Rangers, but from where they stand right now, it won't take much to push them over the top and force OGA to call them CHASING STANLEY at Game 20.
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
2010 Winter Classic Preview Tonight!
Tonight, the Bruins, losing talent by the day like a Bear does it in the woods, come into the Wachovia Center to take on the very well rested Philadelphia Flyers in their first meeting of the 09-10 regular season.
Both teams will play in the 2010 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic on New Year's Day (1PM ET) and NHL.com today launched their Winter Classic website in anticipation of tonight's match-up.
If you didn't check out the Winter Classic site last season, make sure to click on the link above and bookmark the page so you can check back often.
The articles, pictures and interviews will get you pumped and ready for the holidays, I tell ya. And just like Halloween turns into Thanksgiving turns into Christmas, the Winter Classic will be upon you sooner than you think.
Last season, they had a webcam trained on the construction of the rink and facilities inside of Wrigley Field on the Winter Classic page for the entire construction process. Very nice to watch it go up and like I said, gets you in the mood for a special day of hockey.
This year, the game is on in Boston's historic Fenway Park. Construction will begin soon and here's a nice article on the 'Ice Man' getting the planning part wrapped up. If you haven't taken a second to imagine the complexities involved in putting an NHL rink inside a football or baseball stadium, it's worth a read. If not already, you will appreciate the dedication to the process.
And OGA will be looking for that webcam again this season, too.
For tonight's match-up, the Bruins come into Philadelphia missing some key ingredients. As everyone points out, Phil Kessel is in Toronto now. But he has yet to play this season due to injury and I am sure Boston has already dealt with the idea of adjusting to NHL life without Phil Kessel.
What they were not prepared for was losing Milan Lucic (broken finger, now on IR) and Marc Savard who will now be out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. These injuries book-ended trading away Chuck Kobasew to the Wild. Yikes. All of a sudden, the Bruins are looking for some scoring. Time for the youngsters...
For the Flyers, the hockey situation could not be more different. They have played one game in the last 11 days. They are eager and chomping at the bit to get the season back on. The start-stop beginning has seen them flounder a bit (winless in last 3) but tonight gives them the perfect opportunity to get the FlyerExpress rolling. Ten practices over the last eleven days should help.
They will play the first of three games in four nights tonight. Coach John Stevens has put Arron Asham on the second line with Mike Richards and Simon Gagne, hoping to clear up some ice for goalless Gagne to get his season going after a poor start.
Claude Giroux will now play on the third line with rookie James van Riemsdyk. I would keep an eye on this line as they will have a lot of talent on the third line (skating with another tough presence in Ian Laperriere) while Boston will focus on the top two scoring lines. Giroux and van Riemsdyk on the third line could open things up tonight if the combo clicks.
Ray Emery will start his seventh game in a row and tonight's battle will begin the saga leading to the Winter Classic.
All in all, more hockey goodness and just another of the thousands of stories in the fresh, young season. Tonight's game is on the NHL Network so if you don't have Versus, no fear. If you don't have the NHL Network, time to call the carrier.
Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com
Both teams will play in the 2010 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic on New Year's Day (1PM ET) and NHL.com today launched their Winter Classic website in anticipation of tonight's match-up.
If you didn't check out the Winter Classic site last season, make sure to click on the link above and bookmark the page so you can check back often.
The articles, pictures and interviews will get you pumped and ready for the holidays, I tell ya. And just like Halloween turns into Thanksgiving turns into Christmas, the Winter Classic will be upon you sooner than you think.
Last season, they had a webcam trained on the construction of the rink and facilities inside of Wrigley Field on the Winter Classic page for the entire construction process. Very nice to watch it go up and like I said, gets you in the mood for a special day of hockey.
This year, the game is on in Boston's historic Fenway Park. Construction will begin soon and here's a nice article on the 'Ice Man' getting the planning part wrapped up. If you haven't taken a second to imagine the complexities involved in putting an NHL rink inside a football or baseball stadium, it's worth a read. If not already, you will appreciate the dedication to the process.
And OGA will be looking for that webcam again this season, too.
For tonight's match-up, the Bruins come into Philadelphia missing some key ingredients. As everyone points out, Phil Kessel is in Toronto now. But he has yet to play this season due to injury and I am sure Boston has already dealt with the idea of adjusting to NHL life without Phil Kessel.
What they were not prepared for was losing Milan Lucic (broken finger, now on IR) and Marc Savard who will now be out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. These injuries book-ended trading away Chuck Kobasew to the Wild. Yikes. All of a sudden, the Bruins are looking for some scoring. Time for the youngsters...
For the Flyers, the hockey situation could not be more different. They have played one game in the last 11 days. They are eager and chomping at the bit to get the season back on. The start-stop beginning has seen them flounder a bit (winless in last 3) but tonight gives them the perfect opportunity to get the FlyerExpress rolling. Ten practices over the last eleven days should help.
They will play the first of three games in four nights tonight. Coach John Stevens has put Arron Asham on the second line with Mike Richards and Simon Gagne, hoping to clear up some ice for goalless Gagne to get his season going after a poor start.
Claude Giroux will now play on the third line with rookie James van Riemsdyk. I would keep an eye on this line as they will have a lot of talent on the third line (skating with another tough presence in Ian Laperriere) while Boston will focus on the top two scoring lines. Giroux and van Riemsdyk on the third line could open things up tonight if the combo clicks.
Ray Emery will start his seventh game in a row and tonight's battle will begin the saga leading to the Winter Classic.
All in all, more hockey goodness and just another of the thousands of stories in the fresh, young season. Tonight's game is on the NHL Network so if you don't have Versus, no fear. If you don't have the NHL Network, time to call the carrier.
Take me back to www.ongoalanalysis.com
Dilemma of the Day: The Early Games
Hockey fans, I have a problem:
Because I have the Center Ice package, rather than GameCenter Live, I can only watch one game at a time (which is good, because I can really only focus on one game at a time). Tonight at 6:00pm EST, the puck drops on THREE games I'd really like to see:
New Jersey @ NY Rangers - As a long-time Rangers fan, I feel compelled to watch my beloved Blueshirts beat the puck outta the hated Devils...which might not be so easy, because both Marian Gaborik and Ryan Callahan could be playing at less than 100%, and New Jersey is undefeated on the road. I don't see the Rangers coming back from their humbling 7-3 loss to the (also hated) Sharks with anything less than a "W", though.
Boston @ Philadelphia - The Bruins arrive in The City of Brotherly Shove without Marc Savard, Shawn Thornton or (gulp) Milan Lucic. Patrice Bergeron will center the B's top line. Think the Flyers are licking their chops? This game should be interesting...and possibly bloody.
Washington @ Atlanta - Ovie meets Kovy, as the Capitals and Thrashers battle tonight for Intergalactic (or at least Southeast Division) Domination. Seriously, if Atlanta wins, they'll wake up tomorrow atop their division. Sure, it's early in the season...but not too early to make your division rivals sweat.
Three games, one lousy TV. Decisions, decisions...
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Because I have the Center Ice package, rather than GameCenter Live, I can only watch one game at a time (which is good, because I can really only focus on one game at a time). Tonight at 6:00pm EST, the puck drops on THREE games I'd really like to see:
New Jersey @ NY Rangers - As a long-time Rangers fan, I feel compelled to watch my beloved Blueshirts beat the puck outta the hated Devils...which might not be so easy, because both Marian Gaborik and Ryan Callahan could be playing at less than 100%, and New Jersey is undefeated on the road. I don't see the Rangers coming back from their humbling 7-3 loss to the (also hated) Sharks with anything less than a "W", though.
Boston @ Philadelphia - The Bruins arrive in The City of Brotherly Shove without Marc Savard, Shawn Thornton or (gulp) Milan Lucic. Patrice Bergeron will center the B's top line. Think the Flyers are licking their chops? This game should be interesting...and possibly bloody.
Washington @ Atlanta - Ovie meets Kovy, as the Capitals and Thrashers battle tonight for Intergalactic (or at least Southeast Division) Domination. Seriously, if Atlanta wins, they'll wake up tomorrow atop their division. Sure, it's early in the season...but not too early to make your division rivals sweat.
Three games, one lousy TV. Decisions, decisions...
Take me back to On Goal Analysis.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
