Headline of the Night, and more

A few thoughts on/inspired by the games of 26 DECEMBER:

1. My Headline of the Night (which I just made up, so if you use it, you have to give me a nickel):

Fiddler Scores While Detroit Burns

Kudos to the Predators for their 3-2 defeat of the Red Wings. Given their off-ice issues (attendance, money, etc.), the fact that the Preds continue to ice decent teams year after year is remarkable. That said, the fact that they scored three goals against the defending Stanley Cup Champs is hardly worth mentioning. If you can't hang three on the Red Wings these days, you've got serious problems - Detroit has allowed three or more goals in 8 of their last 10 games. Is it because they really need Cheli that badly, or should they be in the market for a goalie? And if it's a goalie, who in the East (because no Western Conference GM in his right mind would give Detroit a goalie) has a starting goalie they'd be willing to part with? Boston's Fernandez comes to mind...

3. The Flyers arrival in the Windy City was delayed by problems on the ground which forced their plane to circle for an hour or so, which meant that they missed their morning skate. The Flyers needed more than a morning skate to avoid the beating they took. After winning five straight, Philly is 2-2-1 in their last five, and they've allowed 18 goals in those five games. Chicago, on the other hand, tied a franchise record with their 8th straight win, and Yours Truly will be watching Sunday to see if the 'Hawks can break the record against Minnesota.

4. Speaking of the Blackhawks...they're currently at the top of my list of Most Exciting Teams to Watch. Rounding out the Top Five are (in no particular order, because if you ain't first, you're last): Boston, Washington, Detroit and Los Angeles. Yes, you heard me: El Lay. They've got a bunch of talented kids out there, and if they can keep that nucleus together while adding a few pieces to the puzzle, the Kings are going to rule their division in 2-3 years.

5. No, San Jose isn't in my Top Five. I haven't seen enough of them to pronounce them, "Exciting". And now, you're wondering how it is that I haven't seen enough of them when I have the Center Ice package? The answer is simple: I don't watch San Jose much because I hate them. What can I say? I live in Dallas. I can watch the Kings, however, because they're not a threat to the Stars...yet.

That's it for tonight. Tomorrow is OGA (and families) Night at the Stars-Ducks game. The Stars' record this season when I attend games is a pitiful 2-3-2, but I take some comfort in the fact that they've won two in a row with Big Tex in the house. We'll see if they can extend the streak mañana...

Take me back to On Goal Analysis

The LOS ANGELES KINGS SPR by Big Tex

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
www.ongoalanalysis.com

30 September 2008

The Los Angeles Kings are six years removed from their last playoff appearance. Last season marked a new low, as they finished last in the Western Conference. In 08-09, there’s nowhere to go but up. How high will they climb in the standings this season?

In the last three seasons, the Kings have failed to qualify for postseason play, finishing an average of -9 below the Playoff Qualifying Curve, or PQC. That average is a bit misleading, however, as LA ended the 05-06 campaign at -2.5. The past two seasons have been brutal down on Figueroa.

Some statistics of note from last season:

• First, the good news: The Kings were quite good at holding onto a lead going into the 3rd period, winning 91.7% of those games (5th in the NHL)
  

• Now, the bad news: LA had the worst Penalty Kill in the NHL (78.0%)
  

• Their Goals/Game average was a middle-of-the-pack 2.76 – remarkable, given the fact that the Kings had just FIVE players score 10+ goals
  

Los Angeles used SEVEN different goalies last season – three more than any other team

Following a season like 07-08, any team would be blown up and rebuilt by management, and the Kings are no exception. Head Coach Marc Crawford was replaced with veteran bench boss Terry Murray. Top defensemen Rob Blake and Lubomir Visnovsky were sent packing, as was 2nd line center Mike Cammalleri. Taking their places are center Jarret Stoll (acquired from Edmonton) and rookie d-men Drew Doughty and (possibly) Thomas Hickey. Make no mistake: youth rules in Hollywood, and youth will rule the Kings.

For better or worse, Los Angeles will have one of the youngest defensive units in the NHL this season. If the Kings can settle on one – or maybe two – goalies, though, the lack of experience on the blueline won’t hurt quite so much. Up front, LA has in Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown two young stars on the rise (and if they could re-sign Patrick O’Sullivan, the Kings would have three). Los Angeles should show improvement over last season, but patience will be necessary – these kids need time to develop.

The Kings’ first ten games of the season are played 11 OCTOBER – 1 NOVEMBER. Our exhaustive research indicates that in that timeframe, LA earns an average PQC rating of 5.0 and about ten points in the NHL standings. Last season, the Kings played below the PQC from Game 1, and were called OUT of the playoffs by OGA on 10 DECEMBER. In the 05-06 campaign, LA fell into OGA’s “13% Club” – OGA calls are made with just over 87% accuracy – by getting off to a strong start and prompting us to call them IN the playoffs on 25 OCTOBER. OGA did not anticipate the Kings’ nosedive in the second half of the 05-06 season, but we have learned from the experience.

Some statistics of note for OCTOBER:

• The Kings are a combined 14-14-2 through the first ten games since the Lockout

• In 07-08, LA began their campaign with two games in London, and jet lag was a problem: they lost four straight upon their return to North America

• Los Angeles won’t do much early-season traveling in 08-09: only 3 of their first 10 (and 9 of their first 31) games are on the road.

OGA will be measuring the Kings against their average PQC rating of 5.0, as well as against other NHL teams, in order to provide you more in-depth analysis with Los Angeles’ Game 10 Report, due to season subscribers by 2PM CST on 2 NOVEMBER, and available for order from ongoalanalysis.com by 2PM CST on 3 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

Realistically, the Los Angeles Kings are at least a season away from battling for a playoff spot. That does not mean, however, that they won’t be worth watching. If the Kings can find a goalie ready to claim the starting role, errors committed by their young D-men (D-boys?) won’t be so glaring, and the youngsters (or, in the cases of Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty, youngstars) will gain confidence. Blueliners who are willing and able to take calculated risks will provide Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown & co. with greater opportunities to showcase their All-Star talents. All in all, the Kings should be quite entertaining, but expectations must be tempered by the fact that they play in the toughest division in the NHL. Follow the Kings’ progress in The OGA Blogs, and don’t miss the comprehensive review of the first ten games in the Los Angeles G10R on 3 NOVEMBER.

Wednesday, we’re off to Music City for the Nashville Predators SPR. Until then, Big Tex says, “Try the funnel cake, because you can only eat so many corny dogs before you need a little something sweet.”

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