2010-11 Season Keys in Threes

It's Hockey Time again, boys and girls! As we OGA Boys prepare for puck droppage on our third season of prescient prognostication, statistical analysis and semi-literate blogging, we're changing our focus somewhat: In 2010-11, we'll be concentrating more on the NHL's non-traditional market clubs. You see, Frozen Pill and Big Tex live in the Dallas area, while The Colonel currently resides in Louisiana (where the NHL "market" consists of...The Colonel's house), so we have a certain affinity for non-trad teams. Besides, they don't get no respect, and we love underdogs.

Though the majority of our blogging will be related to the non-traditionals, we reserve the right to opine on any team in the NHL, at any time, for any reason. For example:

Even though Dallas icon Mike Modano now skates for The Hated Red Wings, they're still just as Hated...and we'll always love ya, Mike, but we don't like you very much right now.

See that? A post about Detroit - a non-traditional market team. We just blogged it. And we'll do it again, as the need arises.

Also, our pride and joy, the PQC, will still be running for the entire NHL, and we'll still be calling all 30 teams IN or OUT of the playoffs as they earn those designations. So there's no need to worry, as things ain't changin' all that much around here.

With that in mind, we humbly offer our Three Keys to the 2010-11 Season for the non-traditional market teams:

Frozen Pill's Teams: Carolina, Dallas, Phoenix and San Jose

Carolina Hurricanes - For CAR, the first thing I am looking for is to see if Staal, Ruutu, LaRose and Ward can stay healthy for the whole season because they are key to a strong Hurricane team. With them healthy to start the season, I am then looking for six-to-seven wins in the team's first 10 games to erase the memory of last year's dreadful start. And finally, I am looking to sneak Brandon Sutter under everyone's nose in my fantasy hockey draft because I think he is going to be hot on the puck this season.

Dallas Stars - For the post-Modano, post-Turco, post-Lehtinen(?) Stars, there’s nowhere to go but up. THE key, without which all others are meaningless, is the health of goalie Kari Lehtonen. If Lehtonen can stay on the ice (and off IR), the Stars have a very good chance of reclaiming a spot in the postseason. Next, Dallas needs a bounce-back season from d-man Matt Niskanen, who slipped from 35 points in 08-09 to just 15 points last go-round. The Stars’ third key to success this campaign is, essentially, the first two keys. Dallas must cut their Goals Against dramatically. Consider this: In 09-10, the Stars scored more goals (237) than 9 of 16 playoff teams. Unfortunately, they allowed more goals (254) than any of the 16 playoff teams. If Dallas can shave 20-25 goals off last seasons’ total Goals Against, they’re back in the playoffs.

Phoenix Coyotes - And with PHX, I want to see if they can continue to dominate with that 6.5-wins-in-10-games average clip they produced last year that brought them into the playoffs. I also want to see a healthy Scotty Upshall who was averaging better than a point in three of every five games before last year's injury. And, I cannot help myself, I have to keep following @biznasty2point0 on my Twitter account.

San Jose Sharks - Let's be honest: These aren't the three keys to San Jose making the playoffs; these are the keys to the Sharks going deep in the playoffs. First and foremost, it's a simple equation: Niemi + Niittymaki must be > Nabokov. If not, well...as Simon and Garfunkel so eloquently put it, "Hello, Darkness, my old friend...". Next, the Sharks must fill Rob Blake's skates, either through current d-men stepping up or via trade. Last, they must shift their focus from defeating last seasons' champs to this seasons' primary threats - Vancouver and Los Angeles.

The Colonel's Teams: Anaheim, Atlanta and Tampa Bay

Anaheim Ducks - For ANA, I want to know what kind of defense we will truly have because I know it is a magnitude weaker without Scott Niedermayer. I also am highly interested to find out if Emerson Etem and Cam Fowler can make the cut this season or not because of their potential. And finally, no matter who is on the blueline, I am looking for about a .600 winning percentage.

Atlanta Thrashers - As far as the Atlanta Thrasherhawks go, I am interested to see the entire team just hit the ice because they seem to have improved on paper in order of magnitude over the off-season. Also, since ATL gives us a 'tell' into their season's end early on, I am interested how they fare in the two back-to-back pairs of vs WSH/at TBL and vs TBL/at WSH they face in their first 10 games. And finally, I am going to be watching and hoping they are healthy in mid-December as some OGA Staffers and their boys take a road trip to ATL on 18 December to see his old team bang on Kovalchuk, a.k.a., the $100M Man.

Tampa Bay Lightning - And finally, for TBL I begin with wanting to see them with 23-25 wins (in combination) by Game 40 because that may just see them set a playoff-making tempo. I am also highly intrigued with a report from Damien Cristodero stating the Lightning's #1 PP unit is Stamkos - Lecavalier - St. Louis with Gagne and Kubina on the points and what that might do on the scoreboard. And I also want to see this squad healthy just before Christmas as that road trip beginning in ATL includes trucking south to see the all-non-traditional matchup of CAR @ TBL on 20 December.

Big Tex's Teams: Florida, Los Angeles, Nashville and Columbus*

Florida Panthers - Along with the rest of the Southeast Division, the Panthers spent the summer working on “home improvements”. Florida’s future success now rests on the shoulders of one Dale Tallon, architect of the Chicago Blackhawks Cup-winning team. Rome (or in this case, Sunrise) wasn’t built in a day, but Tallon’s Panthers could compete for a playoff spot next spring, IF…David Booth can regain his pre-concussion form of two seasons ago…Rusty Olesz plays up to his $3.125mil cap hit (early word from camp is good)…and if the Cats can get off to a better start than the 2-7-1 debacle which derailed the 09-10 season before Halloween.

Los Angeles Kings - Ask for Kovalchuk, settle for…Ponikarovsky? Actually, from a numbers standpoint, Poni is a replacement for Frolov, not a Kovy consolation prize. I want to see if the Big Boy from Kiev will still be good for 20 goals, playing on the third line. Speaking of the third line, I wonder if Wayne Simmonds will build on last seasons’ success (78GP, 16-24-40, +22), or was his 5.5-point increase in shooting percentage over 2008-09 a fluke? Last, but not least, will the Kings take the Pacific Division Crown from San Jose? If Jonathan Quick gets more nights off and both Willie Mitchell and Justin Williams are at 100%, that’s a very real possibility.

Nashville Predators - For five of the last six seasons, the Nashvillians have made the playoffs. In 2009-10, they were the only team in the NHL to tally 100+ points without a positive goal differential (they were exactly even). The theme in Music City is “Win Small, Lose Small”, and the Predators accomplish this with stifling defense. Thus, the three keys to a Preds playoff push next April are: 1. Pekka Rinne AND his backup (a goalie to be named later). Rinne has to stay healthy, and Nashville must find a backup solid enough to allow their No.1 a few nights off. 2. Pivots: Matthew Lombardi must be a more effective/consistent top line center than Jason Arnott was last season, and Colin Wilson must provide the Predators a desperately-needed 2nd line scoring threat. 3. Patric Hornqvist must meet or exceed last seasons’ performance. If all the above comes to pass, Nashville could very well capture their first divisional title.

(Ed. Note: The Colonel says Columbus is too far north to be considered a "non-traditional" market. Big Tex says if any negative team news, whether on- or off-ice, causes Canadian journalists and fans to crank up the POSSIBLE RELOCATION ALERT!!! sirens, it's a non-traditional market. Frozen Pill is wisely silent on the issue.)

Columbus Blue Jackets - For the Jackets to return to the playoffs this season, three things must happen: First, the team must adapt quickly to new head coach Scott Arniel's up-tempo system. Next, goalie Steve Mason has to return to his Calder Trophy-winning form (he showed signs of doing so late last season). Finally, the enigmatic Nikita Filatov must live up to his potential, as doing so will provide Columbus with a franchise first: TWO legitimate scoring lines.


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The WASHINGTON CAPITALS SPR by The Colonel

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT

http://www.ongoalanalysis.com

on 2 October 2008

In blogging the Capitals, it is too difficult not to say it right up front: Washington has failed to make the playoffs twice in the three seasons since the Lockout. HOWEVER, they are famous at OGA for displaying the most prolific comeback against our Playoff Qualifying Curve (the PQC) during the 2007/8 season. Despite an overall average of –7.2 versus the PQC, last year the Caps finished with a +.5 – an average improvement of +11 against The Curve in each of the two previous seasons. This included a rebound from below The Curve for all but the final 12 games of the season that hit as low as –4 twice in 10-game periods. The new team chemistry found under Coach Boudreau, coupled with a return to the playoffs and a strong, team desire to get back on the ice this year, makes a prognosticator want to throw away all of his old oracles and start anew. But a strong, season-ending push that led to a playoff berth does not mean Capitals’ history must be chucked out with the trash. Instead, we must hold it up as a yard stick, measuring where the team is going to go this season.

In the past three seasons, OGA called Washington OUT of the playoffs every time by 1 JANUARY. In the 2007/8 season, that call came on 19 NOVEMBER when they slumped to a –3.5 versus the PQC. That call would not have been retracted until they clinched a playoff berth in their last game of the season, either. Here at OGA, we gloriously place the Caps in that 13% of all calls that made us eat crow because it represents the true ability of a team to earn the W and come back from adversity to secure a hard-fought playoff berth.

What did OGA see this past season and what is in store along the 2008/9 horizon?

The Capitals season-ending PQC average rating of –7.2 is misleading if we look at their capability to win this season. More specifically:

• Washington began the pre-Boudreau era with a 6 – 13 – 1 record. Bringing in Coach Boudreau and his influence to motivate this team could not have waited one game later as it took until the last game of the season’s victory to earn a playoff spot.
  
• Washington was a –3.5 below the PQC as the new regime took over, and the team never fell more than another –.5 lower during the course of the season.
  
• Displacing the long-time Cap favorite, Olaf Kolzig, team management surprised everyone and traded for Montreal netminder Cristobal Huet at the Trade Deadline. Huet backstopped the team to a 14 – 4 record beginning 29 FEBRUARY and then on through overtime in Game 7 of the first round of the 2008 playoffs.

The final season results found the Capitals as the Southeast Division Champions, locked in an overtime battle in the final first round game against Philadelphia. Although this accomplishment seemed unlikely when Coach Boudreau entered the picture, the end-of-season success left the team and fans wanting more and many analysts predicting great things.

The Capitals’ performance against the PQC over the last three years is summarized in the graph below. Washington traditionally starts right at, or below, the PQC in the first 10 games of the season. The Caps tend to have a mid-season peak near or above the PQC and experience one more slide in February before finishing the season strong. The indicators that the predictions for a much improved season are well-founded will be: beginning the season at or above the PQC in Games 1 – 10; spreading out those 14 wins in 18 games from the end of last year more evenly across the season; and sprinkling a few more Ws in there for good measure.

The Capitals’ first 10 games of the season are played 10 OCTOBER through 1 NOVEMBER. Our analysis indicates that in that time frame, Washington earns an average PQC rating of 4.3 which is below The Curve and good for around nine points in the NHL standings. They have won all three home openers and lost all three road openers over the last three seasons. Of note, the Capitals also play six of their opening 10 games on the road.

Some additional, critical statistics to keep in mind for the month of OCTOBER are:

• From 12 – 22 OCTOBER the Capitals lose 85.7% of games played. (This potentially affects four games.)

• On Thursdays and Fridays, Washington tends to lose 70.9% of their games played which has contributed negatively in their last three season outcomes. (This potentially affects another three games.)

• Washington tends to lose 64.8% in the second of back-to-back games. Look for them to play in the other 35.2% early on as the only time they have this scheduled is on 11 OCTOBER for their home opener against CHICAGO where all three Calder Trophy candidates will witness the raising of the Southeast Division Champion banner.

• And the Capitals play an average of 1.67 ‘Bonus Hockey’ games in OCTOBER. They tend to lose 63.6% of Shootouts, so look for them to bring the likes of Ovechkin, Semin, Nylander and Green multiple times in any Overtime period.

Despite the stats above, the Capitals will go on a full assault for the W column. More and more it seems the limits to purchasing talent because of the salary cap and the ability to keep players in the game versus nursing wounds from the press box is the key to playoff entry. So a healthy Caps’ roster throughout the season is one of the keys. Washington’s last line of defense will also have to keep the puck out of the net when such teams as Philadelphia and Montreal come a crashin.’

All of that said, it is difficult here at OGA to stay off of the bandwagon and not ask if, but when the Capitals will secure a playoff bid. During this season, OGA will carefully review team play against the trends and forward your Washington Capitals’ Game 10 Report to season subscribers by 2pm CST on 2 NOVEMBER and make it available for order from the On Goal Analysis web site by 2pm CST on 3 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

Will Washington begin the 2008/9 season like they played it last year? Can Washington get to 1 JANUARY above the PQC and then hold on for rest of the season? OGA will be there to make the call and you can, too.

Tomorrow begins the NHL’s 2008/9 Regular Season in PRAGUE and STOCKHOLM. You can see the games on one of several stations on SATURDAY, and then the Game 2 rematches SUNDAY on Versus.

That’s right – It’s time to lace up the skates, strap on the attitude, take that short walk down the tunnel and leap out onto the ice. Game on! Game on!

This weekend, I will be at the computer and TV to begin my G10Rs for OTTAWA and TAMPA BAY. So more to follow. For now, this is The Colonel signing off…

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The TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING SPR by The Colonel

ORIGINALLY POSTED AT
http://www.ongoalanalysis.com
on 2 October 2008

The Lightning have earned a playoff berth twice in the three seasons since the Lockout. Most interesting about these two forays into the ‘Second Season’ has been that in 2006/7, Tampa Bay secured their slot on their last game of the season exactly EVEN with On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) Playoff Qualifying Curve (the PQC), and in 2005/6, with a –.5. In those two years, they scrapped and battled right along the PQC throughout the season. That makes this team, in addition to all of the off-season acquisitions (Stamkos at the draft, Malone, Prospal, Recchi, Roberts, Vrbata, Carle, Mazaros and Kolzig), some of the most edge-of-your-seat hockey you can see in the land of 72.4 average degrees F (22.4 degrees C).

In the past three seasons, OGA called Tampa Bay OUT of the playoffs twice by the end of Game 40 (1 and 2 JANUARY). In 2006/7, that call was incorrect as the Lightning fought back from a deficit of –3 to earn that last playoff berth for the Eastern Conference on the last day of the regular season. Only the Washington Capitals have had a more prolific comeback to earn a spot in the playoffs (see tomorrow’s Season Preview Report from The Colonel). That makes Tampa Bay one of the 13% of all calls IN or OUT of the playoffs that have been incorrect, and part of the testament to the character of hockey players as a species of sportsman.

What did OGA see this past season and what is in store along the 2008/9 horizon?

The Lightning ended the last three years with an average rating of –3.5 below the PQC. This statistic is skewed to some extent by last season’s collapse of 23 aggregate losses (two OTL’s equaling one, overall loss) in the first 40 games and a season-ending –11 below the PQC. Particularly brutal was the mid-DECEMBER to early-JANUARY timeframe:

• Tampa Bay played to Game 20 above the PQC.
  
• The Game 30 period began with a string of five losses and ended below the PQC. The wheels didn’t come off the wagon, however, until the Game 40 period where seven losses were registered and Tampa Bay slipped to a –5 below the PQC. Nobody since the Lockout has come back from that kind of deficit and OGA called them OUT of the playoffs on 1 JANUARY.

• As a testament to their scrappy character, the Lightning played the next 20 games without dropping any lower against the PQC. The writing was on the wall, however, as they lost five games leading up to the 2008 Trade Deadline and were mathematically eliminated on 1 MARCH.

The final season results, however, brought the new management group, the first pick in the Entry Draft and a re-tooling of the team, so statistics about the fundamentals of their game are likely of no help in looking forward to this season. Instead, OGA councils you to compare this season’s output to the character of their play over the last three seasons. At the same time, keep a watchful eye with OGA on through Game 40 as Tampa Bay is on the bubble for a potential playoff bid.

The sum of the Lightning’s performance against the PQC is displayed in the graph below. Tampa Bay traditionally starts right at, or just above, the PQC in the first 10 games of the season. Something of a slide begins to appear in the Game 30 time frame, which is about on par with when fatigue starts to set in for NHL players and teams as a general rule. At Game 50, they play back up along the PQC, and if they can maintain that level, and scrap for one, good spike in performance to even out any skid (as was done by Game 30 of the 2005/6 season), then they can ride their play on into the 2008/9 playoffs.

The Lightning’s first 10 games of the season start in PRAGUE on 4 OCTOBER and end at home on 1 NOVEMBER. Our analysis indicates that in that time frame, Tampa Bay earns an average PQC rating of 5.5 which is just above The Curve and is good for approximately 11 standings points. They have won two-of-three home openers and only one-of-three road openers over the last three seasons. Starting with a home and away game at the neutral site in PRAGUE, the Lightning return to five straight home tilts back in North America.

Some additional, critical statistics to keep in mind for the month of OCTOBER are:

• From 7 – 18 OCTOBER the Lightning lose 71.4% of games played. (This potentially affects three games.)

• That is followed from 19 – 26 OCTOBER where Tampa Bay wins 77.8% of their contests. (Another two games…)

• And the Lightning play an average of 1.33 ‘Bonus Hockey’ games in OCTOBER, where they are most successful with an average winning percentage of 72% in Shootouts.

So, the Lightning as a team can scrap their way up the win column and stay competitive for a playoff berth. They have drafted or traded for a lot of forwards with the ability to put the puck in the net or provide the grit necessary to win games. They also have two goalies capable of stealing games if the defense in front of them provides enough effort to stave off too much scoring.

And Tampa Bay’s defense has been maligned by many. They have no Lidstrom, Phaneuf, Green, or Campbell. Some say after spending all of that money on the forwards, they failed to get two strong blueliners to build the rest of the defensive corps around. But there are a few things to consider with those comments: ALL of the defense stands over six feet tall; they only combine to chip in about 1/3 of a point per game, so concentrate more on defense than offense; and Barry Melrose knows the best way to be able to compensate for a less-than-Detroit-like defense is with a solid, attacking offense. In my world of the last 24 years, you fight in the best possible manner with the tools at hand which is exactly what the Lightning will do. Getting the first pass from behind the cage to a speeding forward corps is going to be very key to Lightning success.

During this season, OGA will carefully review team play against the trends and forward your Tampa Bay Lightning’s Game 10 Report to season subscribers by 2pm CST on 2 NOVEMBER and make it available for order from the On Goal Analysis web site by 2pm CST on 3 NOVEMBER. (See a sample G10R here…)

Will Tampa Bay begin the 2008/9 season like they played it last year? Can the Lightning get to 1 JANUARY above the PQC and then hold on for rest of the season? OGA will be there to make the call, and you can, too.

More to follow. Until tomorrow and the Washington Capitals’ Season Preview Report (SPR), this is The Colonel signing off…

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