the OGA Blog

The Colonel's Calculations vs. Big Tex's Guts, Round One

2011-04-12T23:54:00.003-05:00

The first round of the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs begins Wednesday night. As such, it's prognosticatin' time again. The Colonel is down in the Caribbean paradise (or maybe not) that is Haiti, a.k.a. "The Land That Internet Forgot". Though he lacks the ability to climb up into the Interwebs, The Colonel was able to text me his first round picks, as well as the calculations behind them. Let's compare The Colonel's Calculations to Big Tex's Guts, shall we?

The Colonel's Calculations

The Colonel made his picks using a stat-based approach. First, he looked at the regular season performances of the five post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champs. Their stats average out as follows:

Wins per 5 games: 3.36
Shots For/Shots Against: 32/27
PP: >19.1%
PK: 83.3%
Cup winners outscored opponents in every period, but greatest goal differential to lowest was (by period): 3rd, 1st, 2nd
Teams also got a big boost if they won at least 7 of their last 10 games.

With the above factors in mind, The Colonel's first round picks for 2011 are:

Capitals over Rangers
Canucks over Blackhawks
Sharks over Kings
Sabres over Flyers
Bruins over Canadiens
Coyotes over Red Wings
Ducks over Predators
Lightning over Penguins

Big Tex's Guts

When it comes to the playoffs, Yours Truly likes to throw cold, hard numbers out the window and go with a gut call. With a minimum of verbiage, here are my first round winners and losers, and why:

Capitals over Rangers - As a passionate Rangers fan, it pains me to make this call. If the Blueshirts' oh-so-talented youngsters had more experience, if Marian Gaborik were...Marian Gaborik, and most importantly, if Ryan Callahan were healthy, this series goes to New York. Chin up, Rangers fans - this team is going to make some playoff noise...in another year or two.

Canucks over Blackhawks - This is the year Vancouver gets past Chicago. The 'Hawks have plenty of talent, but not enough Ladd, Burish or Byfuglien to beat the Canucks this time around. And let's face it: it took a truly crapulent 0-3-3 run by the Stars from 19 MAR - 2 APR for Chicago to even make it into the playoffs. I like the Blackhawks, but they're not worthy.

Sharks over Kings - No Kopitar, no Williams, no brainer. San Jose will be Vancouver's biggest obstacle on the road to the Cup.

Flyers over Sabres - The Sabres are red-hot coming into the playoffs, while the Flyers appear to have stumbled in like a drunk coming home to the wrong house. Nonetheless, this is the playoffs, and the Sabres still reside in the city of Buffalo, which was (apparently) built on an ancient indian burial ground and is thus accursed. Flyers win without even sobering up.

Bruins over Canadiens - The Habs will be one-and-done simply because A) Boston is just that good, and B) Vancouver needs to bear the burden of being The Only Canadian Team Remaining In The Stanley Cup Playoffs, a.k.a. Canada's Last Hope, for three full playoff rounds. Suck it up, Canuckleheads.

Red Wings over Coyotes - The Hated Red Wings win this series not because Phoenix isn't worthy, but because I desperately want Phoenix to win. And because Phoenix desperately needs to win a playoff round (or four). Detroit, The Destroyer Of All That Is Good In My Hockey World, in three. Yes, three.

Predators over Ducks - Speaking of teams which desperately need to win a playoff round...fortunately, Nashville gets to bypass Detroit in the first round. Jordin Tootoo goes all Jeff Gillooly on Corey Perry in Game One, and it's all downhill from there.

Lightning over Penguins - No Crosby, no Malkin, no brainer. How y'all liking that Neal & Niskanen for Goligoski trade now, Pittsburgh? As the late, great Johnny Cash said, "Well, I fooled you/I fooled you/I got pig iron/I got pig iron/I got aaallll pig iron".

So there it is, folks: statistical calculations vs. plain ol' guts. Within two weeks, we'll know which one is better. In the meantime, we got us some playoff hockey to watch. In the immortal words of Marvin Gaye, "Let's Get It On."

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Exploiting the NFL

2011-03-27T23:27:00.006-05:00

For those who bleed Hockey, a little slice of fictional heaven...

At 3:04 p.m. on Saturday, March 12, 2011, Gary Bettman calls the meeting to order. The required NHL staff was in the room with him, but there was a notable teleconference of the 30 NHL teams’ owners and GMs mutely staring back at him through the lone Polycom device in the middle of the table.

“Gentlemen,” he begins. “We are here today to get a GO/NO GO vote from all teams on the initiative I mentioned in a broad strokes email message yesterday. We are here today to determine if we, as a League, are going to exploit the NFL Lockout for the greater good of Hockey.”

He paused a minute for that to sink in. You could feel the nervous excitement through the electronic silence.

“…There are a couple of things to say up front,” he continued. “We have sent out back channel feelers to Direct TV, NBC/Versus, CBS, ESPN and FOX networks in the United States. Any deal we have at worst would have us splitting September TV rights with the NFL coming out of a Lockout. For example, we would get either the 12 or 3 p.m. slot on all U.S. networks on Sundays, even if the Lockout does not persist. This will elongate our season in some respects as we will discuss below. But for our efforts, we get the prime time Monday night matchup unless the NFL comes back on line at which time we will get another week night, most likely on Fridays. But until they come back, we fill all open slots with our games. And, of course, there is no change on games provided to our Canadian broadcast partners. The new revenues will obviously be substantial. But the overall increase in exposure is the crux of the impact to our League.”

Again there was a short pause of silence, calculated by the Commissioner to allow some comments to pass back and forth by owners and their GMs who were taking the call together. He could not imagine any dissent over these two points.

“…And before we take a roll call vote of teams, I need to add the following. In light of man games lost to injury we have throughout the season, and because we want to have our best players on the ice at all times, we need to provide a means to produce more recovery time. That has driven some recommended changes to scheduling I have had our Hockey Operations team burning the midnight oil over. I will now let them tell you what I am talking about.”

As the rundown of changes began, the fundamental transformation to how the NHL season is played are obvious. Those changes include:

1. The league will play an 84-game season. This allows for: home-and-away against all teams in the other Conference; three games against all teams in the other divisions in a team’s Conference, and six against Division rivals.

2. The 2011-12 season begins three weeks earlier than in 2010-11. Pre-season camps cannot begin before 20 August and end no later than 1 September. Teams still coordinate their own pre-season schedule, but nobody plays more than five pre-season contests. Regular season play begins the week of 3 – 9 September when the NFL is otherwise scheduled to kickoff. It ends the week of 24 – 30 March. Playoffs follow thereafter with rounds scheduled as follows:

Round 1: 2 – 15 April
Round 2: 17 – 30 April
Round 3: 2 – 15 May
Round 4: 17, 19, 20, 22, 24, 26 and 27 May

3. Season ‘special circumstances’ scheduling occurs as follows:

Thanksgiving Break 23 – 25 November 2011

Christmas Break 23 – 27 December 2011

All Star Break 26 – 29 January 2012 (‘Old Timers’ Game and Fantasy Draft on 27 January; All Star Game on 28 January)

2012 NHL Entry Draft 1 – 2 June 2012

4. Season weeks run Saturdays through the following Fridays. For all teams, two games are played between Saturday and Monday to facilitate weekend crowds and the increase in U.S. television broadcasts. Deference is paid to U.S. college football with fewer games on Saturdays than Sunday schedules hold. High profile rivalries are highlighted for Sunday prime time and Monday games.

5. Teams play Intra-Conference foes three times back-to-back-to-back and across Conference lines in back-to-back pairs. This facilitates short, sharp rivalries with no history lost between contests such as seeing a team in October and then not again until March.

6. Fundamentally, no team plays greater than three games in an NHL week more than four times during the season. In most cases, teams only play four games in seven days just three times. Where teams play four games in one week, the first pair is executed Saturday through Monday and the second, Tuesday through Friday. The additional recovery time afforded by spreading out the schedule can only work to our benefit in icing more complete teams.

7. While there are a greater number of road trips, travel costs are offset by increased television revenues. Road trips, due to alternating home and away schedules, are no longer than four games long.

8. The season begins with Intra-Divisional battles over the first five weeks and ends the same way. This opens and closes the year with a playoff-like atmosphere in all NHL cities, building momentum for both the regular season’s launch and the start of the playoffs.

9. The divisions also receive a reorganizational overhaul in order to tighten up regions and highlight strong rivalries. They look like this:

Eastern Conference
Northeast Division: BOS, MTL, OTT, TOR, and BUF
Tri-State Division: NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI and PIT
Central Division: CAR, CHI, CBJ, DET and WSH

Western Conference
Southern Division: FLA, TBL, ATL, NSH and DAL
Northwest Division: STL, COL, MIN, CGY and EDM
Pacific Division: PHX, ANA, LAK, SJS and VAN

As a side note to questions, Hockey Operations explained i f Phoenix has to move to, say, Winnipeg, then you have:

Western Division: COL, ANA, LAK, SJS and VAN
Great Plains Division: STL, MIN, WPG, CGY and EDM

Otherwise, there are no further changes to any Divisions or Conferences.
The Commissioner then continued. “And in order to allow you to visualize these changes, we are sending you right now a draft schedule of matchups broken down weekly for the regular season.” With a nod and a stab in the air to indicate ‘ENTER’ on an imaginary computer, the file was sent to all teams.

Hockey Operations continued. “…When you look at the schedule, home games are in bold. Two bold letters to a lone team name means they have home advantage for the week. That happens for half of all game pairings. Two bold letters in a team name with a slash afterwards indicates which half of the week a team is playing and the desired order of home and away games. This facilitates road trips without bouncing away, then back home, and finally on the road again in quick succession. As you can see, this schedule is doable and frankly could have always been a course of action for play in a season. We just have not chosen to do so to date.”

The Commissioner interrupted the conversation for a short interjection. “Our intent for European games this season is spread them out a bit. We are currently negotiating for Calgary and Philadelphia in Stockholm 8 and 9 October, Washington and Nashville in Moscow 19 and 20 November, and Pittsburgh and Vancouver 10 – 11 December. Those games are indicated in red and white highlighting on the file.”

And Operations followed up with, “There is also room for scheduling options based on arena availability. Intra-Divisional weeks can be played on back-to-back nights with at least a full night off before Game 3, or can be played as a home-away-home triple with travel days in between. Our scheduling folks will speak with all teams about their constraints once you have looked at the schedule and discussed it between opposing clubs for a recommendation to the actual calendar. Are there any questions?”

“Just one. Are we doing this for only one season?” asked Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Brian Burke.

“Good question. The answer is no. We intend to repeat this in the 2012-13 season and, using momentum from 2011-12, take on the NFL head-to-head. We will reevaluate our League position after then.”

A few more questions are asked before the vote, primarily circulating around divisional reorganization. There is nothing insurmountable, however. The vote is 28-2 in favor of pushing ahead from the teams.

“Ok then. We set it in motion. Work the draft schedule over the next week and we will have another conference call on March 19th to solidify our plan. Then we will go to the networks for what I am calling initial consultations for contracting the 2011-12 season broadcast agreements contingent upon the NFL Lockout remaining in place. That is all for now.”

…And thus is borne what becomes a fruitful extension of the inroads the NHL is making in the United States market which benefits the League, its teams and players, and Hockey fans as a whole.

Ah, to dream, perchance, to imagine. For in the dreams of (an NFL season) death what opportunities may come…

(Playoff) Border Wars

2011-03-13T12:07:00.003-05:00

Hockey is combat. With injury rates on each team greater than casualty figures for units in the U.S. Civil War, don’t let anyone tell you different.

When you add in that the average difference in the East between 8th and 9th seed since the Lockout has been 1.2 points, in the West, 2.8 points, and overall, only 2 points, it is understandable that the battle for final playoff seeds will once again go down to the wire.

How do the teams engaged in these ‘Border Wars’ stack up through Saturday, 12 March's games? We compare those in the range of the playoff possible below…

Eastern Battles

Eastern teams within two points of the final,projected point spread of the 8th seed based on On Goal Analysis’ ability to project from all possible points that can be awarded are only the NYR and BUF.

NYR are projected at the #7 seed with 90 – 91 points, behind #6-projected MTL by 7 – 8 points. They are winning at a .543 clip, just under the Eastern Conference’s average winning percentage (W%) of .550. They have 12 games left to play which include: one each with MTL and BUF who bookend their projected position; two with BOS and one each with PIT and PHI who are playing at better than the Eastern W%; and six additional games against NYI (x2 – a traditional thorn in the side), FLA, OTT, ATL and NJD. The Rangers have won three of their last four games. NYR has only had four players in all 70 games so far this season and currently has injuries reported to DelZotto, Biron, Boogaard, Frolov and Drury. Caution: If NYR needs a win against NJD in their last game of the season, they may be in trouble.

BUF is projected at the #8 seed with 90 – 91 points, behind #7-projected NYR by 1 point or less and ahead of #9-projected CAR by 4 – 5 points. They have a .523 W%, also under the Eastern Conference’s average by greater than .025. They have 14 games left to play which include: two against CAR and one vs NYR who rest on their flanks; one each with NSH, MTL, WSH, TBL and PHI who are all sporting W%’s better than .580; and six additional games against OTT, ATL, FLA, NJD, TOR and CBJ. The Sabres have lost two of their last three games, a trend they need to reverse. BUF has only one player, Tyler Ennis, who has participated in all 68 games for the team this season. Their injured roster includes Butler, Gaustad, Kaleta, Stafford, Lalime and Roy. Caution: The stretch of NJD, TOR, NYR, WAS, CAR and TBL from 26 MAR to 5 APR will make or break them as far as the playoffs go this season.

Honorable mentions: CAR likely to finish 9th with 85 – 87 points; ATL weighs in at 9th or 10th with 83 – 85 points; NJD – with a great comeback attempt – likely to come in at 9th – 11th with 84 – 86 points; and TOR rests at 10th to 12th seed with 82 – 84 points.

It looks like the East boils down to PHI, WSH, BOS, PIT, TBL, MTL, NYR and BUF with CAR falling just short.

Western Conflict

The competition in the untamed West is even more ferocious for teams that are within three points of the final, projected point spread of the 8th seed. Teams in this range include CHI, ANA, PHX, NSH and CGY.

CHI is projected at the #6 seed with 97 – 98 points, behind #5-projected LAK by 1-2 points. They are winning at a .596 clip, above the West’s average W% of .570. They have 14 games left to play which include: only one game against PHX in the Border Wars gang; three with DET including a Black and Blue pair on 8 and 10 APR to close out the season; games against WSH, SJS, DAL, BOS, TBL and MTL who are all playing at a W% greater than .600; and four more games against FLA, EDM, CBJ and STL. The Blackhawks have gone 0-1-1 in their last two following an eight game W streak. CHI has only had three players compete in all 68 games so far this season and currently has injuries reported to Bolland, Campbell, Hendry and Johnsson. Caution: Three games left versus DET, including the away-and-home pair to close out the season may give the ‘Hawks some fits.

ANA is projected at the #7 seed with 96 – 97 points, behind #6-projected CHI by 1-2 points. They are winning at a .581 clip, still above the West’s average W%. They have 14 games left to play which include: two games against CGY and one each against PHX and CHI within the Border Wars circle; they have three with LAK including another Black and Blue pair on 8 and 9 APR to close out the season; two each against DAL and SJS and one versus NSH who look to be in the Western playoffs already; and one more each against STL and COL. The Ducks are 5-1-1 in their last seven games which is the right trend for right now. ANA has only Perry and Ryan who have made every opening faceoff and currently reports injuries to Blake, Hiller and Jafray. Caution: Two speed bumps for the standings may crop up: LAK, CGY, DAL, NSH and CHI from 19 – 26 MAR and CGY, SJS DAL, SJS, and 2x LAK closing out the season from 30 MAR – 9 APR.

PHX is projected at #8 with 95 – 96 points, behind #7-projected ANA by about 1 point. They are winning at a .587 clip, ahead of the Wests’ W%. They have 13 games left to play which include: only one game against ANA, CGY and CHI from the Border Wars group; they have three against SJS with that Black and Blue pair on 8 and 9 APR to close out the season; games against VAN, DAL, and LAK who are already projected in the playoffs; and four more games against EDM, STL, CBJ and COL. The Coyotes have gone 2-0-1 in their last three games. PHX has only four players who have played in all games so far this season and currently has injuries reported to Hanzal, Klesla, Whitney, Sauer and Jovanovski. Caution: PHX games at LAK, and home-and-away versus SJS 6 – 9 APR may have a huge impact in terms of points and player health rolling toward the playoffs.

NSH is projected at the #9 seed with 94 – 95 points, behind #8-projected PHX by 1-2 points. Their W% is .580, still above the West’s average. They have 13 games left to play which include: ANA as the only Border Wars game; a pair at home against DET; games against LAK, BOS, BUF, DAL, and VAN who are projected as playoff teams; and five more games against EDM, COL, ATL, CBJ and STL. The Predators have gone 4-1-2 in their last six games. NSH has five players who have started all 69 games so far and currently has injuries reported to O’Reilly, Sullivan, Goc, Bouillon and Lombardi. Caution: Complacency versus ATL, CBJ and STL to close out the season may actually close out the season.

CGY is projected at the #10 seed with 94 – 95 points, behind #8-projected PHX and #9-projected NSH by 1-2 points. They are winning at a .570 clip, right at the West’s average W%. They have the least games left at 11 to play which include: two versus ANA and one against PHX in the Border Wars gang; they have one each with LAK, SJS and VAN who are likely seeded above them in the final playoff standings; and two each against COL and EDM and another at STL. The Flames are on an 0-2 mini-streak after going 5-1-1 in the previous seven games. CGY has five players who have made all 71 starts and currently has injuries reported to Jackman, Modin, Morrison, Langkow, Pardy, Wahl, Ivanans and Negrin, the most of all Border Wars teams. Caution: Their final 11 games over 26 days / one-game-every-2.36 days is a double edged sword. It is good for recovery purposes, but is a slower rhythm than the rest of the teams they struggle against for the final playoff positions.

Honorable mentions: MIN likely to finish 11th with 91 – 92 points and the final Western team projected over 90 would likely nudge out #7 NYR and/or #8 BUF for a playoff seed were they in the Eastern Conference.

Most likely in the Western Conference, we are looking at VAN, DET, SJS, DAL and LAK with three of CHI, ANA, PHX and NSH rounding out the top eight.

Summary

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Border Wars in the Eastern and Western Conferences will decide who rounds out the final playoff pictures. History tells us only once – EDM in 2005/6 – has a team below the fifth seed at the end of the regular season been a Stanley Cup finalist. So the odds are against survivors of the Border Wars playing into June. But you never know, so gather your provisions, reload the batteries on your remote, strap on your recliner, and enjoy the Border Wars from now until April 10th.

Attacking The Neutral Zone Trap?

2011-03-11T06:57:00.007-06:00

Here at On Goal Analysis, we have a recommendation for study during the next NHL R&D Camp.

If there remains a desire to increase scoring, how about trying to attack one of the key areas where puck movement gets clogged up – the Neutral Zone?

We propose testing a change to the Offside Rule in order to increase the potential for scoring chances.

The Rule

It is pretty clear what Off-sides is in the NHL rule book: “…83.1 Off-side - Players of the attacking team must not precede the puck into the attacking zone….”

How do you potentially alter this rule without inducing ‘down town hockey’ and the reason off sides was introduced as a rule in the first place. The intent would decidedly NOT be to remove a definition of off-sides altogether, just to, in effect, extend the neutral zone.

Our proposal would read, “…83.1.1 Off-side – No more than one player of the attacking team may precede the puck into the attacking zone as deep as the nearest mark for the faceoff circles before the puck crosses the attacking zone blue line….”

What The Change Looks Like

Graphically, the change in the rule as stated above looks like this:

There are at least four, basic passing routes to get the puck into the attacking zone. In a transition to offense, the attacking team may send what could be called a ‘Rover’ across the attacking blue line once they have possession of the puck, but the early man would have to remain on the defending side of the faceoff circles until the puck comes across the blue line (see the imaginary, dotted blue line in the picture above).

Second And Third Orders Of Effect

Perhaps the most obvious effect this none-too-subtle change would spawn is an elongation of the neutral zone as in the graphic below:

If we may provide the blinding flash of the obvious (BFO), the Rover forces at least one, if not two, foes backwards out of the neutral zone in order to defend against the deep attacker. That unclogs the neutral zone by at least one – if not two – defenders and buys attackers more real estate to set up scoring chances.

It will force players to see ‘deeper’ down the ice and therefore, mentally play the game faster.

It will put a premium on skaters – and even goalies – who can pass the puck tape-to-tape as accurately and long-range as possible in order to facilitate quick attacks up ice.

It will potentially open up the offensive spread in the zone as one player is now positioned deeper down the ice.

It will potentially create a new emphasis on using more of the middle of the ice over the attacking zone blue line than the ‘rim around’ push along the boards depending on the Rovers’ position.

It will potentially create more scoring chances as the Rover may get in behind the defense like a player does now on a breakaway.

Where the attack breaks down due to bad/intercepted passes, it potentially creates more opportunities to quickly transition to an odd-man attack back into zone.

Overall, it supports offensive hockey, potentially creating a quick method to score with less players clogging up the Neutral Zone. In effect, its implementation serves to break up the Neutral Zone trap.

Lest You Think It’s Completely Absurd…

…This idea can be exploited under current, no-red line rules in its desired effect. Current rules have a Rover remaining on his defending side of the blue line until the puck crosses it. But a defender/forward that is moving the puck up ice simply has to loft a puck over the neutral zone to a spot somewhere between the attacking zone blueline and the top of the faceoff circles instead of sending it along the ice. With skill and good placement, the puck crossing the blue line in the air releases the Rover to follow it into the attacking zone, potentially behind the defenders. It is, in military terms, an ‘air assault’ play into the attacking zone.

Summary

So we would like to see the neutral zone opened up in favor of more offensively oriented hockey by redefining the off-sides rule to allow for up to one Rover over the attacking zone blue line and north of the faceoff circles prior to the puck’s arrival. This change could fundamentally alter hockey tactics and potentially increase scoring chances/goals due to the increased space it provides on the ice.

A candidate for the next NHL R&D Camp? Why not take this baby out for a test spin?

We say give 'er a shot.

Phoenix Restructures the NHL

2011-03-09T10:35:00.005-06:00

I’ll say it. In my opinion, The Goldwater Institute is inspired by the late Senator Barry Goldwater’s stated proclivity if elected President back in the 60’s to ‘drop The Bomb’ on North Vietnam in order to end the Vietnam War. They, for whatever ACLUesque, Quixotic reason desire to force the Phoenix Coyotes to move, Arizonans to lose jobs and Hockey to suffer in a market where it is beginning to grow at all ages/levels. Their motto should be “I Threaten, Therefore I Am.”

That said, what if Phoenix moves to Winnipeg, possibly resurrecting the Jets of old? How should the NHL re-align? If there’s no getting around the loss of Phoenix to the Western Conference, what are our options here?

The Simple Geographic

One method is for the NHL to do their best to simplify realigning based on two things: geographic distance from other teams and the least disruption possible to current Divisional organization. That might look something like this:

Western Conference

Pacific Division: SJS, LAK, ANA, DAL, COL

Northwest Division: VAN, EDM, CGY, WIN, MIN

Central Division: No Change

Eastern Conference

Southeast Division: No Change

Atlantic Division: No Change

Northeast Division: No Change

This Course Of Action (COA) has the least disruption that could be imagined and is probably the preferred COA to execute.

While some folks may say, “COL = Pacific? What are you talking about?” Is DAL near the Pacific other than when it flies to California?

And some pundits south of the 49th Parallel may smugly offer, ‘With four Canadian teams in one division, that’ll give Canada a better shot at winning a Cup for a change…’ (Silly pundits – there is no conspiracy about who wins Lord Stanley’s Cup. It always goes to who wants it more.)

The Alternate Geographic

But what if the NHL likes their change shaken, not stirred? They could wind up doing the following:

Western Conference

Pacific Division: SJS, LAK, ANA, VAN, COL

Northern Division: EDM, CGY, WIN, MIN, CHI

Central Division: STL, NSH, CBJ, DET, TOR

Eastern Conference

Southern Division: DAL, ATL, TBL, FLA, CAR

Atlantic Division: WSH, PIT, PHI, NYR, NYI

Northeast Division: BUF, OTT, MTL, BOS, NJD

There are many reasons to say this wouldn’t be done.

Foremost is that it is more revolutionary than evolutionary and solid organizations usually stand upon a foundation grounded in the latter.

Additionally, several rivalries are broken up: TOR from the Eastern Conference; BUF-TOR; WSH out of the Southeast; NJD from the NY/NJ state-o-plex; and a basic unbalancing of Canadian teams between the Conferences of four in the West and two in the East all come to mind at first glance.

But there are some arguments to be made for this COA as well. All near-Pacific teams are actually in the Pacific division; a ‘Southern’ division is now truly southern in American terms; and if any Canadian team can transition to the Western Conference, it’s Brian Burke’s Maple Leafs.

While this wouldn’t be a traditional, military-style ‘throw away’ COA (one that is completely out of the box just thrown on the table for hasty discussion and discarding amongst the COAs you are really interested in implementing), it would likely not be as popular with HQ-NHL because it flies in the face of some NHL historical precedents, for the number of differences and the other detractors listed above.

And yet, there is now the Shannahan Factor in NHL research and change implementation. Hmmm…

The Alternate Alternative

Lest we forget one quickly spoken statement in Commissioner Bettman’s Phoenix press conference the other day, there are other options than simply considering Winnipeg for a move of the Yotes. Not knowing if that is Toronto (II), Quebec or even Hamilton, let’s just for the moment call this team TORQUEHAM. With ‘The T’ in the League because of a move, you could make the NHL look like this:

Western Conference

Northwest Division: SJS, VAN, EDM, CGY, COL

Southern Division: LAK, ANA, DAL, TBL, FLA

Mid-West Division: MIN, STL, CHI, NSH, DET

Eastern Conference

Central Division: ATL, CAR, CBJ, PIT, PHI

Atlantic Division: WSH, NJD, NYR, NYI, BOS

Northern Division: TOR, BUF, TORQUEHAM, OTT, MTL

How do you like those apples? Here are some cool reasons to go this route if any new resting place for the Coyotes winds up East of Lake Michigan:

The Northeast Division has a nice, tight, travel shot group.

The Southern Division is where everyone will want to be on the road to in January and February (although we do note the extreme East-to-West Coast distances).

The Mid-West Division adds MIN who seems, in my mind, to always have been missing from the same division as CHI.

The Central Division tightens up their travel shot group like the Northeast.
The Atlantic is now all along the Atlantic seaboard.

And TORQUEHAM’s new division will be an all Canadian quartet playing BUF for the pride of the USA every night.

There could even be branch plan to the above, call it ‘The AA II,’ that could alter the Conferences as follows:

Northwest Division: No Change From Immediately Above

Southern Division: No Change From Immediately Above

Mid-West Division (West): MIN, STL, CHI, NSH, ATL

Central Division (East): CAR, CBJ, WSH, PIT, PHI

Atlantic Division (East): BUF, NJD, NYR, NYI, BOS

Northern Division (East): DET, TOR, TORQUEHAM, OTT, MTL

Both are intriguing, yes?

The Return Of Toto

Wait a minute… What if the new location is Kansas City? What if the NHL goes for long-term, grow-the-gamedness versus immediately potential monetary impact? What if that nice new arena waved under NYI’s nose two years ago is the targeted landing spot for a displaced Phoenix franchise?

How about these combinations:

Western Conference

Northwest Division: SJS, VAN, EDM, CGY, COL

Southern Division: LAK, ANA, DAL, TBL, FLA

Mid-West Division: MIN, STL, KAN, CHI, NSH

Eastern Conference

Central Division: ATL, CAR, CBJ, PIT, PHI

Atlantic Division: WSH, NJD, NYR, NYI, BOS

Northern Division: DET, TOR, BUF, OTT, MTL

That gives you pause for a moment, doesn’t it? Any way you slice this option, Kansas City as a destination for the franchise makes a modified form of one of the Alternate Alternatives a more likely, final COA to adopt.

Summary

There are at least five options out there if Phoenix is moved due to the obstructionist methods of The Goldwater Institute.

If Winnipeg is the destination, then the most likely COA is go with The Simple Geographic change that creates the least amount of change and turmoil. The Alternate Geographic is less likely to occur as a more revolutionary than evolutionary change, but an interesting alternative to still consider.

If the Coyotes move east of Michigan, two equally enticing prospects come to mind. The Alternate Alternative or The AA II are equally intriguing, and the best COA comes down to whether you want DET or BUF taking on four Canadian teams in their division.

The Return Of Toto assumes a move to Kansas City is the final choice. It is an thought-provoking spin on The Alternate Alternative and her sister, The AA II, that keeps the moving franchise south of the 49th Parallel where The Great Game has a better chance of growing and expanding that returning the club to a Canadian market whose love of the game can only swing in less than 10% increments upwards.

You can hypothesize changes to NHL divisions any number of ways. But you can hang on your hat on the idea that changes to Phoenix cannot come without restricting NHL divisions.

Take me to On Goal Analysis

(THEY’RE) GOING STREAKING!!!: Again…

2011-03-07T16:29:00.003-06:00

Yesterday in “ (THEY’RE) GOING STREAKING!!! ”, we threw out the notion that streaks in the NHL are more than just ‘how many in a row’ a current team is. The Streak statistic is really a three-part proposition which includes a Winning Streak (WS), Point Streak (PS) and Losing Streak (LS) for every team.

We loaded you up with facts about Streaking in the Eastern Conference and provided a nice table showing you how teams stack up. And we pointed out perhaps the most telling number in these stats is the difference between the number of winning streaks versus losing streaks as they are a better indication of why a team is where they are.

So today let’s compare what you eye-balled in the East with what it looks like ‘Out West.’

Streaking Western Style

Streaks of the winning variety and in good quantity are the difference maker in Western Conference standings. They are, indeed, and indicator of who is in the hunt for a Playoff seed in almost every case. Here are the comparative figures for the WS’:

Average Western WS Length – 6.4 (high is CBJ with nine; low are EDM and MIN with four); this is more than one full game in the Streak more than ‘back East.’

Average Number of WS – 7.2 (high is DET with 11; low are EDM and PHX with four); this is .133 of a game below the East and indicates how strong the competition is in the West.

Additionally, and the reason the WS out West is an indicator of who is in competition for a Playoff spot, is because seeds 1 – 8 average 8.25 WS’. The 9th-11th place teams – all of whom are within one point of Number 8 – all have a 9.0 WS’. And the overall average of 1st – 11th place teams is 8.46 WS’. And PHX is in the top eight seeds with only four WS,’ but those Streaks have been seven, two, four and eight games long. This makes them one of those exceptions spoken of in yesterday’s post.

The bottom four spots in Western standings? CBJ, STL, COL and EDM only hold a WS average of 3.75. COL, as an example of how the lack of WS’ affects a team, has had no WS’ since 18 JAN in what has likely become an unannounced rebuilding year for the franchise.

Between East and West for teams in the mix for a playoff spot, the West’s longest WS’ beats the East 6.364 games – to – 5.667. Convexly, the average number of Eastern WS’ is greater than the West at 9.222 games – to – 8.455. But as an extreme example, if you multiply the longest WS’ by the average number of times they occur, the West’s figure is 53.808 while the East’s is 52.261 – the West will win more than 1.5 games more than the East at this pace.

In terms of the Point Streak, there is not a great deal of difference between the two conferences:

Average Western PS Length – 7.4 (high is VAN with 17, the most in the NHL; low is MIN with four); this is .133 less than in the East.

Average Number of PS’ – 8.933 (high is MIN with 14, a reason they are hanging in the race for the final seed(s); low is PHX with six); this is the same figure as in the other Conference.

Of interest here is the difference between Conferences for every team within striking distance of a Playoff seed (as of last Sunday night). In the East, positions 1 – 9 average an 8.0 PS’ while 1 – 11 in the West have a 9.273average. This is why you can add up the total points awarded by game play or projected by On Goal Analysis per team and get 74.933 / 93.281 in the West respectively and 72 / 89.891 in the East.

Losing Streaks – the LS’ – also show a significant departure both from within the Conference and when compared to the East:

Average Western LS Length – 5.2 (high is COL with 10; low are CHI and DET with three); this is .667 better than in the East.

Average Number of LS’ – 7.133 (high is PHX with 11 that average 2.546 in length, a reason they are still in the hunt for a Playoff spot; low is VAN with four, the lowest in the League); this is .533 greater than in the other Conference (because lower is better in this category).

Think there’s competition in the West? Heck, you can see it as the standings jump around each and every day. But wrap your head around this combination of stats reference the LS: while the average longest LS in the West is 5.2 and more than half a game less than in the East, for teams still within one point or less of the 8th seed, in the West that average is 4.636 versus the East’s 4.333. So the top Western teams tend to lose less games back-to-back than the East overall. That disparity plummets even greater for teams who are chasing more of their tail than the leaders of the pack (6.75 LS’ on average for the bottom, Western four teams versus 8.167 LS’ for the East’s bottom six).

The West’s Chart
Here is what it looks like, again, with the current Streak and average leaders in bold:

Of interest here is that the difference in LS’ from WS’ is greater – there are more of them – in the West than in the East. But the reason for greater actual and potential point value per team rests in the fact that LS’ in the West are shorter in average length and number.

Going into the playoffs for the West, your important note is still to watch your favorite team for runs increasing the longest, or number of, LS’. Western Stanley Cup Finalists since the Lockout over the last 10 games of the regular season have an even WS : LS ratio. And only DET in ’07-’08 did not have any LS’ in that same timespan. More telling for the West in their last 10 games is that the ratio in length of WS to LS is 3.4 : 2 with Stanley Cup Winners averaging 4.333 : 1.667. When compared to the East, these numbers indicate that Western Cup Finalists’ last 10 games of the regular season display longer WS’ and PS’. There is also a greater WS to LS. ratio present.

In Summation

By comparison, the West leads the East in terms of length of WS’ and shortness in length and quantity of LS. The East’s number of WS outdistances the West, as does their length of PS and differential between WS and LS. It all adds up to the West being more competitive than the East in terms of how long they win and how short they lose back-to-back.

The averages in the three stat categories of WS and PS and LS for Stanley Cup Finalists over the last 10 games of the regular season indicate fans should be looking for the following out of your team as the Playoffs near:

East: Average WS’ of 2.5 or more games; average PS’ of more than 3.5 games; and average LS’ of only one games.

West: Average WS’ of three or more games; average PS’ of five games; and average LS’ of two games.

Remember, however, as you line up to dog out PHI and say they are imploding before the playoffs over their recent four-game losing streak. It is, after all, their longest of the season and all…

PHI has had five losing streaks this season when the Eastern average is 7.667. Their losing streaks averaged a combined 2.8 games in length, while, again, the Eastern average is 5.867. They are also seven wins in front of the 8th seed after game splayed on Sunday night. All that needs to happen is they set their sights on getting back in the ‘W’ column at least by the end of the third game from now versus ATL, follow it up with wins versus FLA and, again, ATL, and they are back to their winning ways having endured a LS still smaller than the Conference average.

Six games in the West, on the other hand, may be unrecoverable…

(THEY’RE) GOING STREAKING!!!

2011-03-07T00:26:00.004-06:00

What we know for a fact here at On Goal Analysis is that the difference between winning and losing in the National Hockey League is THAT close (see thumb and forefinger a miniscule distance apart here).

You can see in official NHL standings that the last column on the right is entitled ‘Streak.’ That’s got to have some importance, yes? But there is still the question of, “Streak? So what?!”

Let’s look then at the ‘So what?!’ and determine the value of that Streak column in those standings. This will be a two-part blog analyzing first the Eastern Conference and then the West due to their distinctively different winning natures this season.

That’s right – here at On Goal Analysis, we hate to admit it, but we’re watching the NHL as ‘They’re Going Streaking…’

What’s In A Streak?

The NHL stat – which is very popular when you consider the fan outrage at its temporary removal from the standings last year – tells you the latest combination of unbroken W’s or L’s teams have.

Our terms studied are three-fold and carry through games ending Sunday, 6 March:

1. A Winning Streak (WS) is at least two games in a row with any kind of ‘W’ a team can acquire. In the East, the largest WS is 12 games (PIT) while three teams have weighed in with only 3-gamers (BUF, FLA and NYR). The average length of greatest WS is 5.333 games. It is interesting to also note the largest number of WS’ is 13 (NYR), the least, five (NYI), and the average number per team is 7.333.

A large number of WS’ may or may not be a good thing. TOR, currently sitting in the 10th seed, has 10 WS’ this season. Lots of WS’ may conversely show that a team can bounce back from a loss with two or more W’s. BUF, currently the 8th seed, is just such an example. And a small number of WS’ may also show success because winning streaks occur more often for a team than losing streaks. Fourth seed PIT has just six WS’ this year, one less than 14th place NYI.

2. A Point Streak (PS) is at least two games in a row with at least one point awarded. Take note a PS can also be a WS. The East’s longest PS is 15 games (again, for PIT), two teams have had a maximum of only 4-gamers (NYR and OTT), and the average length of the largest PS is 7.533 games. The NYR hold the most number of PS’ with 13, NJD has the least with five, and the average number of PS’ per team is 8.933. Remember: a huge PS may be a bad thing if the vast majority of the PS’ games are of the one-point variety, and this season, also is they are Shoot Out Losses (SOLs) which do not count in the standings’ tiebreakers.

Since the Lockout, the average point differential between the 8th and 9th seeds in the East has been 1.2 points. So perhaps the win-and-a-half spread says that the PS carries more weight than the WS. Again, to keep it all in perspective, remember a 10-game PS with all OTLs/SOLs is worth 10 points in the standings, while a six game WS equals 12. For this season, it is interesting to note all teams with double-digit PS’ except CAR are in the top seven seeds. (CAR is currently 9th.)

3. Finally, a Losing Streak (LS) is at least two games in a row with any flavor of ‘L’ attained. An LS can also be a PS or contain a combination of OTL(s)/SOL(s). The East’s greatest LS is 14 games (NYI), four teams have had only 3-gamers (BOS, CAR, MTL and TBL), and the average length of the largest LS is 7.533 games. The NYR hold the largest number of PS’ with 13, NJD has the least with five, and the average is 8.933.

Again for caution, a bunch of LS’ that are short staccatos of loss are not necessarily a bad thing. The NYR in the 7th seed have 10. Know, too, that every team has ‘em as the top eight seeds in the East range from five – 10 with an average of 6.375.

Observing The Streak

Below, we will show you the numbers on the Eastern Conference teams, but add one more observation here… It is most important in analyzing The Streak to determine the difference between WS’ and LS’. Why? Because of the nine teams above, at, or within 1.2 points of the 8th seed, only two – CAR and PIT – have a negative differential between their WS’ and their LS’. (Note also that the average differential here is in the negative, showing teams tend to have more LS’.)

There are a couple more notes here besides the bold number showing what streak a team is currently running.

ATL had seven of their eight WS’ by 5 JAN which is why they are in their current shape in the standings.

How is BUF hanging in the Playoff race? They have only had one LS since 27 DEC.

NJD only had one WS up through 14 JAN, but has had no LS’ since 8 JAN. This is why NJD fans think they look like they might threaten for one of the final Playoff seeds.

As we head toward the playoffs, what becomes important to note is if your favorite Eastern team increases their longest, or number of, LS’. That is a bad trend that is difficult to pull out of and gain success in the playoffs. Remember here that since the Lockout over the last 10 games of the regular season, Eastern finalists have all had one or more WS’ and PS’ and hold a 1.2 WS:LS ratio. (Last season’s PHI is the only Eastern Finalist to have ANY LS’ over the last 10 games of the regular season.)

Summary

Streaking is a three-pronged analytical tool consisting of the Winning Streak (WS), Point Streak (PS) and Losing Streak (LS). The Streak is about much more than simply ‘how many in a row’ a current team is. The focus of attention in the NHL streak should instead be the difference between the WS and LS where four of five Eastern Stanley Cup finalists since the Lockout have a positive ratio in that regard.

Stay tuned to On Goal Analysis as tomorrow, we take up observation of the Western Conference streak…

An NHL Vision For The Future

2011-02-14T10:37:00.007-06:00

Here at OGA, we believe there is never a horse too dead to kick again. Principally, we like to hypothesize on modification of the NHL schedule. So here we go one more time.

But we would like to do it with an eye toward an overall vision for the NHL. Take this if you want it, Mr. Bettman – there’s no charge for this recommendation.

The Vision

A vision – sometimes called ‘mission’ – statement has to have a simple, clear direction while allowing for an ample margin of flexibility. So here is our recommendation:

The NHL will grow the game of professional hockey over the next five years in order to increase the game’s marketability against other professional sports.

Simple, yes? In fact, it can easily be argued it sounds like the unofficial vision of the NHL already. The difference from our perspective is in how that vision is executed.

It Starts With Organizing ‘The Product’

‘The Product’ here is the presentation of the game to fans and media outlets. In our humble opinion, it has never been better (with the exception of the excitement of the 1980 Olympics and the Edmonton Oiler Stanley Cup era). That said, there are some tweaks that can be applied. Why do it? Because the NHL is on the cusp of passing up other major North American sports in popularity. (And we might add it may be a great year for exploitation if the NFL does not get its CBA in place.) And to tip something over the edge in the direction you want it to go, you apply some obvious pressure to make it happen.

After the words ‘…in order to…’ above, there are two ways to look at how to ‘…increase the game’s marketability….’ On one hand, you can succumb to the position that the NHL can attempt to avoid the draw of college and NFL football as much as possible. Or, you can cross check them into the boards and take them head on, a character trait that runs deep in the core of Hockey.

Take ‘em on, we say.

So in that vein here is our recommendation for The Product, our overall 2011/12 schedule:

27 AUG – 8 SEP 11 (Camp/Pre-Season)
10 SEP – 31 MAR (Regular Season)
23 – 25 NOV Thanksgiving Shutdown
20 DEC – 2 JAN Trade Moratorium
23 – 27 DEC Christmas Shutdown
26 – 29 JAN All-Star Break
26 JAN Fantasy Draft
27 JAN Skills Competition
28 JAN All Star Game
26 FEB – 31 MAR Division Triples
3 – 16 APR (Round 1 Playoffs)
18 – 1 MAY (Round 2 Playoffs)
3 – 16 MAY (Round 3 Playoffs)
17 – 30 MAY (Finals)
1 JUN – Annual NHL Awards Show
2 JUN – Round 1 of Entry Draft
3 JUN – Entry Draft Complete

Our BFO (Blinding Flash of the Obvious) here is recommending starting Training Camp and Pre-Season earlier than in the past. The reasoning is two-fold. First and foremost is to allow for a more predictable schedule (three games per week) with a less games-to-days ratio (1:2.3) that allows for better team and player regeneration. And second is to complete the regular season (on 31 March) and entire season (2 June) earlier than normal.

Most teams have three-to-four days of camp at their facilities before striking out on the road for pre-season games. This schedule would also limit the number of games a team can play in pre-season to no more than five. But in the spirit of "...grow(ing) the game of professional hockey...," teams would have to play at least two games every pre-season in a location where NHL teams do not regularly play.

In conjunction with what is likely the first or second major week of college football and in direct confrontation with the NFL opening weekend – if they have a season this year – the NHL would begin the season with 100% of teams playing on opening night, 10 September 2011. For the sake of those who are nervous about taking on the NFL, weekly games through much of the NFL’s season can hover on Tuesdays through Saturdays. But I would say for the two big brass ones the NHL has, every Sunday and Monday should have premium games scheduled as well – the kind that give a fan of both sports a dilemma as to which channel to tune in.

There will be stoppages for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and the All Star Weekend. The Moratorium on trades over the Christmas holidays will run longer, and the Christmas/Boxing Day break will be both two days before and after Christmas Day, all for the sake of NHL families.

If this schedule continues on out into the future, taking back all but Thanksgiving Day and the three days with Christmas Day residing in the middle buys back one week of an Olympic Break every four years. And then adding one more week into the schedule to make 14 days’ room for the Olympics would simply carry the season’s conclusion out to about where it sits now.

But Wait…

On the surface, 10 September through 31 March minus stoppages is 27.5 weeks. Why so long? That also calls for a two-fold answer.

First is because scheduling guidance would call for teams to play no more than three games per week. The one-game-to-2.33-days ratio will allow for better recovery of the NHL’s key asset, its players. And it lessens strain across the board on all teams’ operations and logistical support. Tell me that could not be of great use when you currently see the rash of injuries in the League, to include to Sidney Crosby, one of the NHL’s great draws.

And second is because the schedule increases to 84-games. That’s to cover one home-and-away game against every other team in the League, one more against inter-conference foes (for a total of three), and four more against intra-divisional rivals (for a total of six). On a higher level, there is now an opportunity for everyone to see Ovechkin, Crosby, the Sedins, Pronger, Doughty, Thomas and all of the other players at least once a year.

But down between the lines, and in further support of "...increasing the game’s marketability..." is the five weeks at the end of the schedule called “Division Triples.” In four of those five weeks, teams would play a home-away-home, three-game, uninterrupted mini-series against a division rival. You then get your ‘Hated Red Wings’ week for Blackhawk fans, or your ‘Visser la Bruins’ week for a Habs passionné with all of the media-supported and driven passion that entails. It brings a playoff-like, pre-playoffs atmosphere to every barn in the League before season end. The fifth week is to round out the rest of the schedule and is required because of the odd number of division teams.

Why the three-game mini-series? What’s the ‘So what?’ in that. Here’s the numbers. Through contests ending 11 February of the current season, 381 of 827 / 46.1% of all games played have ended in a one goal deficit. For all Stanley Cup playoff games since the Lockout, 4% more games than that did likewise. But specifically in what On Goal Analysis has called the Black and Blue Schedule, for 18 of 30 back-to-back, uninterrupted pairs of games played this season, 10 of 18 / 55.5 % of those pairs were one-goalers. Other key stats include the facts that 44.4% of those B&B games have seen the second game’s winner not the same as the first games’ victor and 50% of second games displayed an increase in PIMs. These statistical rationalizations would be natural fuel for the personal and media-driven, emotional reactions that would occur during such events as a three-game Battle of Alberta.

Bring us the Division Triples!

Oh, and don’t wait weeks for the Annual Awards Show and Entry Draft after the Stanley Cup finals either. A couple nights after the Stanley Cup Finals are complete, BAM! have the Annual Awards Show. Don’t wait – go while the season is fresh in everyone’s mind. And then hold the Entry Draft, the single event that gives each and every team (and drafted player) a glimpse at, and hope for, the future, on its heels. THAT puts the bow on top of the whole package that is an NHL year.

You Said ‘Vision’…

That term implies seeing something else down the road. We say for that ‘next five years,’ the NHL can truly test the bounds of practicality in expanding one day to Europe. For an investment in team and program support, the NHL can foster a regular, pre-season playing regimen with teams in Ireland, England, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Switzerland, The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Russia. Ten teams conducting their pre-season in those countries with exhibition games between local, professional or all-star clubs and other NHL teams in Europe would give a September NHL presence in ‘The Old Country.’ It would also give teams a taste of international play that helps everyone’s psychological preparations for the Olympics.

If it is attempted, a diving board for potentially expanding the NHL by 10 European teams at some point will be put over the pool, allowing the League to determine when, where, and even if a splash will be heard. But in terms of a vision, options are opened to grow the game beyond even North America.

Summary

In terms of a vision, the NHL should grow the game to increase its marketability against other professional sports. Screw football – you can like it, but you’re not going to love it like you will love hockey. That should be the NHL’s mindset.

Increase the length of the season to decrease the number of games played weekly allowing more recovery time for players and a more manageable pace for hockey operations and logistics.

Give us the Division Triples because four home-away-home weekly series in the last five weeks of the season will increase fan anticipation and drama to a crescendo each week, bring fans out of their seats for the greater PIM-driven passions that ensue, keep them on the edge of their seats as more than half of the games end with a one goal deficit, and bring everyone to a lather for the Stanley Cup finals.

And exploit the pre-season to test the viability of expansion into Europe. Make it at least a three-year experiment so all 30 NHL teams would have the opportunity to play in Europe over a weeklong (+), pre-season timeframe – expansion of the NHL eastward would require it in the normal course of a season. Or find out it is not viable and pour all of your efforts entirely into North America expansion.

It’s a vision. That’s our $.02 free of charge.

Why is the Best NHL Referee "None"? (Part 2 of 2)

2011-02-12T20:53:00.003-06:00

In Part One, we addressed the possible causes behind the current sorry state of NHL officiating. Today, we'll look at five solutions/improvements.

5. A Third Referee

Even if I'm completely wrong and NHL officials are 100% bias-free, the fact remains that the boys in stripes either miss calls or make the wrong call with alarming frequency. The game of hockey moves so fast that it seems even two referees can't keep up. A third referee on the ice would only get in the way, causing even more problems. On the other hand, a third referee in the press box (or perhaps in Pierre McGuire's spot between the benches), with two-way radio communication to the on-ice officials and access to the video feed, could catch many of those missed calls and utilize the video feed to help the on-ice officials make the right call.

How would it work? When the third referee sees an infraction which both of the on-ice referees failed to call, he keys his mic and says, for example, "Hooking, 29, white". The on-ice refs' arm goes up, whistle blows, and #29 in white goes to the box. Likewise, after the whistle blows, the third ref can review the video to ensure the correct call is made (as in Rick Nash's "no goal" against Detroit). To keep controversy to a minimum, the off-ice ref would have to have the authority to overrule his on-ice counterparts.

4. Coach's Challenge

Dale Tallon was right: NHL coaches should be able, on a limited basis, to challenge certain calls. How limited? Coaches should be allowed up to three challenges per game. If the first challenge fails, the challenging team is charged with a timeout. If the second challenge fails, a two-minute minor for Delay of Game is assessed. If the third challenge fails, a double minor is assessed. If the challenges are successful, no penalties are assessed. Ideally, though, the introduction of a third referee (as above) would make the Coach's Challenge unnecessary. That's predicated on the competence of the third referee, however.

3. Kill the "Intent to Blow" Rule

One of the most controversial rules in the NHL is the so-called "Intent to Blow" rule. In a nutshell, it means that the play is considered dead as soon as the referee decides to make a call (blow his whistle), as opposed to when the whistle is actually blown. In other words, play is stopped by the referee's intent, rather than his action. Many a goalmouth scrum has resulted in a good goal being waived off because of this awful rule. It's demise is long overdue.

2. Publicized Fines and Suspensions for On-ice Officials

When players and coaches are fined or suspended, those penalties are public record. Are NHL officials ever fined? Are they ever suspended? What sort of disciplinary measures are referees and linesmen subject to...if any? Who knows? On-ice officials would receive greater respect from fans, players and coaches if only we could see proof that they're subject to some form of discipline.

Referees are, and should be, held to a higher standard. Far too many nights, we watch them fail to meet that standard, seemingly without consequence. The net result is that referees are generally held in low regard. "Wow - wish I could do a lousy job every night, and get rewarded with a trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs at the end of the year" is a common refrain. Publicizing penalties assessed to on-ice officials would be one way to let the public know the NHL is truly interested in producing the best possible product.

1. Actively Recruit On- and Off-ice Officials from Non-Traditional Markets

Bias among NHL officials is real. Sure, we all want to pretend that every NHL official treats the Atlanta Thrashers with the same respect and attention as they do the Montreal Canadiens, but that's simply not the case. As we've already seen this year, a blown call in a Thrashers-Panthers game won't receive the same level of scrutiny as it would in, say, a Maple Leafs-Canadiens game. In the Leafs-Habs game, many more people are watching; thus, the game is considered "more important". What NHL officials fail to understand is this: While there aren't as many fans of the Panthers, those who do care, care deeply. By the same token, the objective in non-traditional markets is to grow the game. It's difficult to turn casual fans into fanatics when they see the home team screwed repeatedly by capricious and disinterested officiating.

The NHL needs to actively recruit on- and off-ice officials from the non-traditional markets. I'm not suggesting, for example, the Dallas Stars should have a Dallas-born-and-bred referee for every home game; what I'm saying is that a referee from any non-traditional market would carry with him a greater level of respect for the Dallases, Phoenixes and Floridas of the world. In the end, the Atlanta-Florida game would be officiated with the same level of attention to detail as Toronto-Montreal. Bias is mitigated, controversy subsides, and non-trads succeed or fail on their own merits, rather than at the hands of an inattentive referee.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Why is the Best NHL Referee "None"? (part 1 of 2)

2011-02-10T17:32:00.004-06:00

If it’s a day ending in “y”, it must be time to discuss the sorry state of NHL officiating. Sadly/Unfortunately/Infuriatingly (take your pick), it seems there’s much more to complain about this season than in any other post-Lockout campaign. In a recent survey of the NHLPA, “none” was the most popular answer to the question, “Who is the best NHL referee?” There’s a reason for that.

Today, in Part One of this post, we'll identify the problem(s). Because it's just plain bad policy to gripe without also offering solutions, Part Two will deliver five ways in which to improve NHL officiating. For the sake of brevity, we will only discuss the bad on-ice calls, and save the NHL's mercurial suspension "policy" for another time. With that, let the dissection begin! Here’s a sampling of what we’ve been subjected to this season:

Friday, 4 FEB 2011 – Columbus @ Detroit: Henrik Zetterberg gets tangled up with goalie/teammate Jimmy Howard, allowing Columbus’ Rick Nash to shoot the puck into an open net. Referee Francois St. Laurent signals “no goal” and sends Derick Brassard to the sin bin for goalie interference.

Wednesday, 2 FEB 2011 – Detroit @ Ottawa: Chris Neil stuffs the puck into the Detroit net during a scrum in the crease, then inadvertently pulls the puck back out of the net. Puck ends up underneath Jimmy Howard. After a War Room review, it’s “no goal”, because “…the puck was under the goalie, who was then pushed into the net.” Replays clearly showed this was not the case. Neil’s goal would’ve tied the game at 6 with just under eight minutes remaining in the 3rd; instead, Detroit adds an empty-netter to win, 7-5.

Wednesday, 5 JAN 2011 – Atlanta @ Florida: With Atlanta leading, 3-2, late in the 3rd, Florida Captain Bryan McCabe scores the tying goal…or not: Somehow, both the on-ice officials and the War Room missed Atlanta goalie Ondrej Pavelec fishing the puck out of the back of the net after the whistle. Atlanta wins, 3-2.

Tuesday, 28 DEC 2010 – Boston @ Tampa Bay: Game tied, 3-3, late in the 3rd, when Steven Stamkos is sent to the box for “Boarding” – in this case, a clean, shoulder-on-shoulder hit. Boston scores on the ensuing PP, wins 4-3.

Tuesday, 26 OCT 2010 – Florida @ Toronto: At 11:02 of the 3rd period, with the score tied at 1, Colton Orr flattens Panther goalie Scott Clemmensen. Tim Brent sends the puck toward the now-empty net, and it deflects off Orr and in. Former NHL Director of Officiating Stephen Walkom says it’s a “good goal”, Leafs go on to win, 3-1.

Sunday, 10 OCT 2010 – Florida @ Edmonton: Florida trails, 2-0, early in the 2nd period, when Marty Reasoner scores for Florida to make it 2-1. 1:09 later, Oiler Shawn Horcoff kicks the puck past Tomas Vokoun. The War Room says “good goal” after a lengthy review, Edmonton goes on to win, 3-2. Horcoff’s “goal” is the game-winner.

Anyone notice a pattern here? Before we get to that, Dirk Hoag at On The Forecheck had a very interesting post last week regarding post-Lockout suspensions, which asks the question, “Do the NHL’s Original Six franchises receive special treatment?” Again, we aren’t discussing suspensions today, but Hoag’s post caused the proverbial light bulb to come on over my head. What do I mean? Well, about that pattern…

In five of the six examples above, the beneficiary of the bad call was either an Original Six or a Canadian club. Likewise, in five of six examples, the party which was injured by the bad call was a non-traditional market club. This, combined with Hoag’s post, raised a question: In the eyes of NHL officials, is there a distinct hierarchy of teams? If so, it probably looks something like this:

1. Original Six clubs
2. Non-Original Six Canadian clubs
3. “Traditional Market” American clubs (i.e., Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Buffalo, etc)
4. “Non-Traditional Market” clubs (Phoenix, Columbus, Florida, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Nashville, Dallas, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose)

Am I suggesting NHL officials are biased? Absolutely. It’s common knowledge around the league that rookies – both players and coaches – have to “pay their dues” before referees will give them the same treatment veterans receive. If refs are biased against rookies, why wouldn’t they be biased against non-traditional market teams? After all, they’re only human, and overwhelmingly Canadian:

On the NHLOA website, the list of 39 referees includes 1 Swede, 6 Americans and 32 Canadians (note: four referees have no birthplace listed, but three of them have distinctly French-Canadian names, so we’ll call them all Canadian). Of 33 linesmen on the site, 1 has no birthplace listed (I’ve requested a copy of his birth certificate from Hawaii), 8 are American and 24 are Canadian.

Why does nationality matter? Because the overwhelming majority of Canadian hockey fans are offended by the very idea of NHL clubs in non-traditional markets, just as American baseball fanatics are still upset over the Toronto Blue Jays’ World Series wins in 1992 and 1993. While I’m not suggesting Canadian-born NHL referees and the War Room staff in Toronto are actively conspiring to keep the “non-trads” down, I think it’s safe to say their feelings toward those clubs mirror those of Canadian hockey fans, ranging from “barely concealed hostility” through “general contempt” to “It’s Florida/Atlanta/Phoenix/et al; who really cares?” How else can some of these calls/non-calls be explained? Put another way, why aren’t the Torontos of the world victimized by bad calls as often as the Floridas?

Taking it a step further, only two of the American NHL referees were born outside of traditional hockey markets: Dennis LaRue (Savannah, GA) and Brad Meier (Dayton, OH). Among American linesmen, only one doesn’t come from a traditional hockey area (Bryan Pancich, the pride of Great Falls, MT). American hockey fans in traditional markets are largely guilty of the same biases as their Canadian counterparts.

Bias aside, NHL officiating has never been more than "adequate", and this season, is much closer to "putrid". A combination of inexperienced referees (relative to past seasons) and increased game speed are partly to blame. What can be done about it? Tune in tomorrow for Part Two…

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Your Team At The 50’s Continued: ‘Out West…’

2011-02-08T12:03:00.002-06:00

Yesterday, On Goal Analysis posted its Game 50 (G50) blog about the Western Conference teams and their projections on into the playoffs. Today we look at the Western Conference…

The West is tight and therefore, many folks will tell you it is too difficult to predict. We hope to shed some better light on these 15 teams than throwing or hands up and telling you to pick ‘em.

Our recipe contains the same three ingredients as yesterday’s main course: an accounting of your team’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC); their projected finish in terms of Conference position and team points; and the likelihood of a surge or ebb in team play heading to G60…

The Western Conference

Anaheim Ducks. As of their G54, ANA is currently playing In The Curve, or just about average against the PQC. This is off of the back of a decent surge executed despite an injured Ryan Getzlaf. Their current PQC has only two better since the Lockout at G50: 2006/7 when they won The Cup and 2007/8. Their current projected points/finish in the West is 96 points/6th place. ANA’s propensity is to have a bit of an ebb going into G60, but their strong play indicates otherwise will occur – look for continued PQC improvement over the rest of the furlong.

Calgary Flames. CGY was the second and last Western team to be called at Tee Time back G29/9 December. They have since surged to a 15-6-5 record and began this morning as the West’s 8th seed. Projected points/finish in the West at G55 is 92 points/9th place. And while they are currently on a roll, they are due for a dip in their PQC, especially when you consider three of their next five games include contests against ANA, VAN and DAL.

Chicago Blackhawks. CHI is currently playing In The Curve and shows distinct signs they are not last year’s squad. As they hit the 50-game mark, their PQC was their lowest in the last two seasons and quite a bit off of last years’ pace. Their current projected points/finish in the West at G53 is 91 points/10th place. They are not likely to be called Chasing Stanley by G60 and odds are 2:1 their PQC ebbs a bit by G60. They need to dig in to return to the playoffs this year.

Colorado Avalanche. COL is also currently playing In The Curve right on par with CHI at G50. At that mark, their PQC was at its lowest, make-the-playoffs-season point tied with 2007/8. Their current projected points/finish in the West at G53 is 88 points/13th place. At best they will only remain In The Curve at G60 with odds at 5:3 COL will take a dip in their PQC this 10-game stretch. This does not bode well for playoff entry this season if the trend continues.

Columbus Blue Jackets. CBJ was called Chasing Stanley at G20/on 24 November. Ever since then, they have been attempting to force OGA to make a Shot Off The Post (SotP) call stating that we were incorrect in our first prediction. Based on current play, they are off their 2008/9 playoff entry pace by a notch. Their current projected points/finish in the West at G52 is 89 points/12th place. While odds are 5:1 they will see a continued PQC skid, they are showing some promise after a big win over DET and a one-goaler over EDM.

Dallas Stars. DAL was called Chasing Stanley for the first time in three seasons at G30/13 December. Despite a 1-5 record in their last six games, they remain high on the food chain in the Conference. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 101 points/3rd place behind VAN and DET. Odds are a bit better than 2:1 of them decreasing their PQC by G60, but they should be a solid lock for a Playoff seed.

Detroit Red Wings. DET was called Chasing Stanley at G20/26 November. Their PQC is only their fourth best in the six years since the Lockout, but at G50 was higher than all but PHI and VAN League-wide. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 108 points/2nd place behind VAN. Based on current play, expect a slight uptick in their PQC by G60. This team is slowing down, but they ain’t stopped yet as OGA calls them a Playoff ‘lock’ for 2011.

Edmonton Oilers. EDM, in an acknowledged rebuilding season, was predictably called at Tee Time at G20/23 November. Their G50 PQC is worse than every year except 2008/9. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 61 points/15th place and 30th in the League. It is even money their PQC continues to ebb by G60, but it is more likely they will skid some more. Still, the speedy squad is exciting to watch on many nights.

Los Angeles Kings. The LAK were called Chasing Stanley at G20/22 November. Their G50 PQC is not as kind, sitting at only its third best since the Lockout. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 96 points/5th place, but they must get their groove on for longer winning stretches. After three straight losing furlongs, expect the Kings to pick up the pace with a PQC gaining stretch by G60.

Minnesota Wild. A pleasant surprise in the State of Hockey this season, MIN has been playing strongly In The Curve and flirting with an opportunity to reach Chasing Stanley status over the last 20 games. Their G50 PQC is tied with their best in 2007/8, the last time they entered the Playoffs. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 52 is 96 points/4th place in the West. Expect the Wild to remain In The Curve by G60 due to a remaining furlong schedule of 8 games in 13 nights with two back-to-back pairs, but keep an eye on this squad as the Playoffs loom.

Nashville Predators. It cannot be overstated that NSH is a blue collar, hardworking team. They were called Chasing Stanley at G30/15 December, but were sporting only their fourth best, post-Lockout PQC at G50. With a bit of a streaky season, at G54 their projected points/finish in the West is 95 points/8th place. Odds are 4:3 they will drop off on the PQC by G60 but the schedule pushing out to there is favorable with recovery time between every game. If anyone can beat the odds, it is the Predators.

Phoenix Coyotes. Not last year’s team, this PHX has been playing only In The Curve all season. Their G50 PQC is second best since the Lockout, but that is also behind last years’ similar marker where they experienced a slight dip in play enroute to the Playoffs. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 55 is 90 points/11th place in West. Look for a PQC uptick in this team leading into G60, but in reality, they need to play 10% better on through to the playoffs to secure a seed.

San Jose Sharks. One of only three teams to make the Playoffs every year since the Lockout, SJS has struggled this season sitting at only In The Curve. Their G50 PQC is second worst in six years behind 2005/6. That said, projected points/finish in the West at Game 53 is 95+ points/7th place in West. They have enjoyed a 7-0-1 streak of late which they need to continue in order to push their way up to a Chasing Stanley call. Expect the Sharks’ PQC to grow heading toward G60.

St. Louis Blues. STL was called Chasing Stanley on a strong showing out of the gate at G10/4 November. They carried that momentum on through G20 and then began a skid. Their G50 PQC is only as good as 2009/10 when they failed to make the playoffs. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 51 is 85 points/14th place in the West. They need a stretch like their first 20 games to right the ship or they are looking at joining CBJ as a potential SotP this season.

Vancouver Canucks. Tops in the League, VAN is hot, hot, hot this season. They have been Chasing Stanley since G30/18 December and have only lost two games in regulation since then. They join DAL and DET as a solid playoff contender with the second highest margin of PQC ‘lock’ is in the League this season. Their G50 PQC is their best since the Lockout by several notches. Projected points/finish in the West at Game 54 is 115 points/1st place in West and the League. This team has depth in its favor, so expect a continued PQC rise heading toward G60.

Summary

So the Western Conference is likely to have seven teams increase their PQC while eight drop off, a prediction a bit better than the Eastern Conference and in line with this seasons’ performances. We are getting to crunch time now as things are most set in terms of the PQC by G60. Let’s see where the competition and excitement take us going forward…

Take me to On Goal Analysis

Your Team At The 50’s

2011-02-07T20:22:00.002-06:00

At On Goal Analysis, we have you covered as your favorite team has hit or just passed the 50-game mark this season.

We give you three things of interest in this blog. First is an accounting of your team’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) which gives you the earliest possible call of IN (Chasing Stanley) or OUT (Tee Time) of the 2011 Playoffs. We also calculate their projected finish in terms of Conference position and team points. And finally, we tell you about the likelihood of a surge or ebb in team play heading to Game 60 (G60).

Without further ado, we now hit the Eastern Conference followed by the Western in alphabetical order.

The Eastern Conference

Atlanta Thrashers. ATL currently is playing In The Curve, or just about average against the PQC. The only year better, PQC-wise, was 2006/7. But having just hit the 55-game mark, they need W’s in the last half of this 10-game stretch or they may meet requirements for Tee Time. Their current projected points/finish in the East is 86 points/10th place. And in the next 10-game stretch, they are most likely to have another period of a diminishing PQC against the Curve which may just see them find themselves out of playoff contention.

Boston Bruins. BOS has been Chasing Stanley since G20/24 November. They have had a few minor dips in their PQC, but currently are playing a notch better than any season except their monstrous 2008/9 year. Projected points/finish in the East at G53 is 101 points/3rd place. Note they bounce back and forth with Montreal between 3rd or 5th/6th place with PIT and/or WSH in the middle and based on who won or lost each night. You might see them increase their PQC again between G50 and G60, but it would be a first against their post-lockout averages to have a third PQC-gaining furlong in a row.

Buffalo Sabres. BUF was currently playing In The Curve. But as they hit the 50-game mark, they barely missed a PQC call of Tee Time with their worst numbers since the Lockout at that point in the season. Their current projected points/finish in the East at G51 is 88 points/9th place. Their current winning percentages would see them hit G60 at Dusting Off Clubs, just short of elimination, but a hotter-than-average winning streak could just as easily see them ushered into 8th place. They are most likely, however, to ebb this 10-game stretch and either rest just shy of, or at, Tee Time.

Carolina Hurricanes. CAR was also currently playing In The Curve. Based on current hot-and-cold play, they are most likely to remain In The Curve at G60. At G50, their PQC was tied with that of the 2006/7 season, second only to their Stanley Cup winning year. Their current projected points/finish in the East at G53 is 91 points/8th place. CAR needs another 6-0-2 run like they had from 28 DEC to 11 JAN, but are likely to either post a very modest PQC gain, or ebb lower in PQC difference from the median.

Florida Panthers. FLA was called at Tee Time at G40/on 8 JAN. Based on current play, they are on par with last season and just barely better than 2005/6 through 2007/8. Their current projected points/finish in the East at G52 is 83 points/11th place. Truly, this is a rebuilding year for Dale Tallon and the Cats.

Montreal Canadiens. MTL was OGA’s first Chasing Stanley call of the season at G10/29 October. After a PQC slide from G31-G40, they are again on the rise, a normal slippage occurrence each year for this team. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 99 points/6th place behind BOS, PIT and WSH. (Remember the yo-yo with BOS between 3rd and 5th place here.) There is a 50/50 chance of Les Habs either increasing or decreasing their PQC, so anything – such as injuries – could adversely affect the team enroute to G60.

New Jersey Devils. NJD was given a qualified PQC call of Dusting Off Clubs – just short of elimination from the 2011 Playoffs – at G10/27 October based on their past ability to play The Great Game. By G20, there was no denying they were at Tee Time and will remain so going onwards to G60 despite their recent surge. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 53 is 67 points/13th place. The Devils are a ‘solid’ OUT when it comes to the nature of NHL play and making the playoffs this season.

New York Islanders. NYI had a dismal G11-G20 stretch and were called at Tee Time for G20/21 November. Their G50 PQC is worse than every year except 2008/9. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 52 is 66 points/14th place and behind NJD. Flip a coin as to whether or not they improve their PQC in the G51-G60 spread, but improving would mean teams are coming into the building thinking they are playing an easy mark. NYI, as with NJD, is a solid Tee Time this season.

New York Rangers. At G50, the NYR hit their second straight 10-game stretch with a Sharpening Skates – just short of IN the 2011 Playoffs – ranking. That G50 PQC is eclipsed by the 2005/6 and 2008/9 seasons, but markedly better than the two seasons in between when they also made the playoffs. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 55 is 95 points/7th place. After four straight PQC-gaining furlongs, expect the Rangers to fall off a bit and land at In The Curve by G60.

Ottawa Senators. OTT was called at Tee Time at G30/9 December. Their G50 PQC is tied with 2008/9 as their worst G50 PQC since the Lockout. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 53 is 62 points/and last place in the East. Expect OTT to slide on their PQC again by G60 – they have already joined NYI and NJD as a solid Tee Time this season.

Philadelphia Flyers. PHI was OGA’s fifth Chasing Stanley call of the season at G18/15 November. Fast forward and their G50 PQC is the highest they have experienced since the Lockout. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 53 is 114 points/1st place in East and pushing VAN for 1st overall in the NHL. They have increasing PQCs every 10-game furlong since G40 of last season. Expect the trend to continue – this team is the most solid lock for the 2011 Playoffs of any team in the League.

Pittsburgh Penguins. PIT has been Chasing Stanley since G28/4 December. Since G40, their PQC has been their highest since the Lockout, to include where they will be at G55. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 110 points/4th place in East. While there is a 50/50 chance of their PQC increasing above the In The Curve mark by G60, it is practically impossible to not predict a dip with the loss of their top two players through at least early March for Crosby and until next season for Malkin. PIT GM Shero needs to pull the trigger on a top three forward to ensure their Playoff future, but their current level of play could drop off by almost 10% and they are likely to still squeak in to the Playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning. The TBL are a legitimate Chasing Stanley team this season. A solid ‘lock’ for the playoffs unless the wheels fall off the cart, the only question is how deep into the post-season they will go. They have been Chasing Stanley since G10/20 October. They have also consistently been at their highest post-Lockout PQC rankings since G35 this season. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 110 points/2nd place in East. Expect the Lightning’s steadily rising PQC trend to continue through G60.

Toronto Maple Leafs. TOR was called at Tee Time at G36/30 December. Their G50 PQC is only better than in 2009/10. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 52 is 75 points/12th place in the East, an improvement from last season of only one point, but three places in the standings. TOR will likely continue their steady PQC slide by G60.

Washington Capitals. Make no mistake, WSH is having its issues in the W column this season. That said, they have been Chasing Stanley since G17/13 November. A solid playoff contender, their margin of ‘lock’ is less than in the previous two seasons. Their G50 PQC is lower than at any time since the 2007/8 season at the same point. Projected points/finish in the East at Game 54 is 100 points/5th place in East. The Caps have been surging since their pre-Winter Classic slump, and expect that trend to continue going onward to G60.

Summary

So the Eastern Conference is likely to have three teams increase their PQC, eight drop, and four either remain the same or go either way. That should point to increases occurring across the Western conference one would think. But such simple conclusions are not always correct in PQC-land.

Come back to the OGA blogs later for the rundown on the hard-to-call Western Conference to be posted at a later date.

If I Was Running A Team

2011-01-24T14:54:00.005-06:00

I am military. And being so, I tend to get to the heart of the matter. I zero in on the mission and attack it with vigor. So if I was working for an NHL team, I would do a few things some might call cold-hearted or calculated. I prefer to call it mission-focused.

My mission, in running a team, would be to build a Stanley Cup winning franchise with a fan base that cannot buy enough tickets to see the team in action.

My intent would be to focus on building the kind of fans that cannot help but come to the game even when the team is not blowing out the opposition. And I would build this team through the local population base of children.

The ‘Evil’ Plan

Let’s say it how it really is. While most of us would like to say our kids go where we take them, more often in pure statistical terms, families are taken where their children’s activities go. So bring the children to the rink, and you have a whole family in the seats. That’s 3.14 family members in the U.S. and about three in Canada. In effect, if the child comes to the game, you sell 2-3 tickets.

So the Evil Plan – we’ll call it the ‘EP’ – is to integrate children into the operation as much as is possible. Here is my coup de grace example:

Kidterns. I would invite the local school board Presidents to the Arena for lunch and sit down to work out the EP. It would be the following:

1. Take essays and/or video tapes from students age 12-16.

2. Find the best essays/videos and choose the right children to represent the team

3. Work out class credit with the school boards for the children to miss a week of school to participate in Kidtern camp with no grade repercussions in exchange for class/school reports on their experience (yes, to excite even MORE kids about hockey)

4. Conduct Kidtern camp one week when the team is on the road but within a couple weeks of the Christmas/Boxing Day Holidays

5. Have three children work with trainers on Hockey equipment; three children work ticket sales; two children work game-time, on-the-jumbotron promotions; 10 children work pre-game promotions/customer assistance; five children work with major staff assistants; and one each boy and girl with the team’s media for game-time presentations – the goal is to spread the 25 children around as many school districts as possible simultaneously

6. Bring them to Kidtern Camp and then have them work for a week with the team over the holidays – the focus would be all for the kids to go all out for one home game (the kids also get a sit-down lunch with the team after a morning skate somewhere in there so their report can say ‘…I lunched with Ovechkin….’)

7. Sell the parents up to six each 50% off tickets to come and see their children at work with the team on the prime home game night – ensure to have in-arena cameras show either live, or run recorded video clips of the kids during game breaks/in-between periods

So you would have three kids helping to prepare equipment and set up the room before the game and in the runway to assist the trainers as the game is ongoing. (Among ‘normal’ duties, have them tape one of the rookie’s sticks.)

Three children would work right alongside the agents on the phones after training and in the ticket office for game time. (Have them call and melt the big corporations to sell corporate boxes though the sheer power of a child’s enthusiasm.)

Two children would work as assistants with the jumbotron promotion/contest crew – if they are particularly able, they might own the mic to run one contest. (Smiles fill the building and at least two sets of parents holler ‘…That’s MY kid!..”.)

Ten youngsters would assist with promotional hand outs and giveaways throughout the game. (Have them talk people into parting with their money on a great idea at the fan store or concession stand.)

Five sharp kiddos would be assistants to the managements’ personal assistants to learn how that critical mission is conducted.

And the most gregarious young man and woman would be trained to be a broadcast/interview team. It’s not that they can take Heidi Androl’s place. It’s that they have a unique interpretation at that young age we all have forgotten to express and can’t help but laugh at when kids ‘say the darndest things.’ They get one jumbotron interview and, if it can be done, one short segment on air. (Every kid wants in the Kidtern program now…)

At the very end, give them all team shirts, signed pucks and hats, and special coupons for discounted tickets for the rest of the season as long as tickets are available. You know, to increase the opportunity to come out to games.

And send a letter to the very best of the Kidterns to return for one, early-round Playoff game encore as a special recognition of a job well done. Maintain a listing of Kidtern ‘graduates’ for consideration as they become young adults and may want to apply for a position with the team.

Some Other Ideas To Increase The Butt-To-Seat Ratio

I have three more.

Once more with the children… For the top 40 kiddos not chosen for the Kidtern program, at 10 kids per special day, they join the Kidterns for a skate with the team. So four times during the year, the team donates an hour of ice time and brings the 25 Kidterns and 10 runners-up onto the ice with the players. All the while, proud/jealous parents are staring through the glass at their lucky progeny. (Pass them coupons for special discount rates on tickets as they watch.)

The first in-game special I call ‘How Suite It Is.’ For 10 games during the season, after the first period, any unsold/unoccupied suites become the privilege of some lower-bowl season ticket holders. Go to the appropriate sections a few minutes before the end of the 1st Period and round up the lucky ticket holders. And make a big deal of it as you lead them away to their new, plush seats.

Then there is ‘Come On Down.’ Tickets in the lower bowl are freakin’ expensive. Some more than others. So for the same 10 games as ‘How Suite It Is,’ during the 3rd Period, random, upper bowl rows/sections are taken down to fill in unoccupied, lower bowl seats. The wealth is shared in an awesome way all upper deck fans have thought and wished for as they looked down and cursed the un-attending below them.

Summary

So the EP is simple. Get the paying parents to the rink through their children just like the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. Expose lots of kids to something special – some in person and others vicariously as they listen to the school report from the lucky, chosen. And share the wealth.

Fill the seats. By a team, staff and support. Build a sense of community. And win The Cup.

What would YOU do if you were the boss?

OGA Notes - 23 January

2011-01-23T09:50:00.002-06:00

The OGA crew has been really busy all season, so you have seen us mostly on our web site at ongoalanalysis.com and heard us on JabberHockey. But it doesn't mean we still are not researching the NHL as a whole to find the essence of the Win and how it relates to who is and is not in the Playoffs as far out from the mathematical call as possible.

Or are we? In the last few days, we re-defined the mathematical call. We have determined how to account for all teams total points through our Playoff Point Predictor (P3). On display at our home page is a listing of the Top 8 teams in each conference, their projected, total points and their last position from the night before, all right under our Hot Picture of the night. Add the P3 to the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), and you get a highly accurate prognostication of who will be playing on into late April this season. And, we might add, GAMES before it is mathematically settled.

We have also been following something called the Black And Blue Schedule all season long. The premise is for the 30 times the NHL scheduled two teams to play back-to-back/home-and-away this season, the second game is likely to be won by the team who lost the opener, in OT or a SO and with more total PIMs. In effect, the pair of game, uninterrupted by other opponents, potentially has that same aire of competition as a playoff game.

While overall this notion is only correct a bit over one-third of the time (.373), it is interesting to note a few things here:

1. Most correct in the prediction is the increase in PIMs in contest #2 where that prediction has been correct eight of 17 times (.471).

2. Second most accurate has been that the opposite team wins in Game 2 (seven-of-17 for .412).

3. Lastly is the OT/SO percentage with only four-of-17/.235 games being correct with the overall premise. While the percentage of OT/SO games is down a bit this year, it's only by an estimated 13 games from last season. So this category is not as good a call as the original theory might have suggested.

We DID find an interesting off-shoot of the theory we did not initially expect, however. Of the 17 games to date, 10 (.588) have ended in a one-goal decision. The current NHL average is approximately 32%. So almost double the Black And Blue Schedule games end with a one goal difference than the overall NHL average.

Just a couple of notes this morning from On Goal Analysis for your consideration.

Take me to On Goal Analysis

December 23rd's In The NHL

2010-12-23T12:18:00.001-06:00

The NHL has a penchant for the Christmas Eve, Eve (CE2) schedule. Tonight for example, there are 13 games/26 teams on the ice for your pre-Christmas viewing pleasure. But how well have teams fared since the Lockout when they can smell the Christmas turkey in the oven?

The Eastern Conference on 23 December

Where an OTL/SOL counts as one-half of a Win, the Eastern Conference overall has a .524 winning percentage on 23 December. In order with percentages, they stack up like this:

WSH 1.0
ATL .800
PHI .750
BOS, OTT .600
CAR, NYI, PIT, TBL .500 (2-2)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
FLA, NYR .375
MTL, NJD, TOR .250

Eastern teams on the road for CE2, however, stack up differently with an overall .516 winning percentage. Individually:

PHI, WSH 1.0 (2-0)
TBL 1.0 (1-0)
ATL .750
OTT .600
CAR, NJD .500 (1-1)
BUF .500 (1-1-1)
BOS .333
MTL .250
NYR, TOR .000 (0-1)
FLA .000 (0-1)
NYI, PIT No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season

So the Eastern Conference is pretty consistent at a bit over .500 on CE2. The above would imply tonight that:

ATL has a better than average chance of beating BOS
WSH is likely to take down PIT
TBL can beat the NYR
NJD, notoriously bad on CE2, may win against NYI tonight for the coaching change intangible
If MTL smells the plane’s seat leather, they will lose to CAR
BUF has a decent chance of beating FLAAnd OTT might not beat NSH as they are .600, but have lost on the road the last two seasons

The Western Conference on 23 December

The Western Conference overall has fared a bit better than their Eastern Conference brothers at a .550 winning percentage for CE2. Western overall percentages are:

MIN 1.0
SJS .833
DAL .800
COL, NSH .750
STL .700
DET, PHX, CHI .625
CGY .600
LAK .333
EDM .250
VAN .167
ANA .000 (0-3)
CBJ .000 (0-5)

Western teams on the road for CE2, however, perform significantly worse on the road for CE2 when compared to their Eastern brethren with a combined .322 winning percentage. Individually, they are:

DAL 1.0
DET .750
NSH, STL .667
CGY .500
LAK .333
PHX .250
CHI, COL .000 (0-1)
CBJ, VAN .000 (0-2)
ANA, EDM .000 (0-3)
MIN, SJS No road games on 23 DEC through 2009/10 season

So the Western Conference overall is over .500 on CE2, but win less than one-third of the time on the road. So tonight’s possibilities include:

A virtual toss-up for VAN at CBJ
DET might have a slight advantage at STL
As we said above, NSH has a slight, potential edge over OTT
DAL should defeat CGY
COL will have a close, possible win over MIN
The LAK are the likely victor over EDM
And SJS gets the nod over visiting, Bryzgalovless PHX

Summary

So tonight, the West’s winning dominance over the East it is likely to continue with a NSH victory over OTT. All other games are intra-Conference, with the home team holding a slight statistical advantage and likely to take eight of 12 other contests.
Just some fun facts for tonight as we all remember going into the holiday season to give thanks for Hockey!

NHL Weekend Roadie: East Bound and Down Edition

2010-12-17T09:39:00.004-06:00

After a brief hiatus, the NHL Weekend Roadie is back...and this time, it's for real. This weekend, 2/3rds of the OGA Boys (The Colonel and Yours Truly), along with a herd of kids (Tex Jr. and The Colonel's Lieutenants) hit the road for some pre-Christmas Southeast Division action.

The itinerary:

NHL Week Eleven (Saturday, 18 DEC - Monday, 20 DEC)

Saturday, 18 DEC: New Jersey @ Atlanta - We'll be up at oh-dark-thirty, as we're driving from Pineville, LA to Atlanta for this game. The drive itself should take about eleven hours (including stops and the time change) and the puck drops at 7:00pm, so it's going to be a long day. Must.Get.To.Philips.Arena.Early. , as they're offering $1 hot dogs, pretzels and sodas from 6:00pm - puck drop. The question isn't, "What's for dinner?", it's "How many?" Oh, and there's apparently going to be an interesting hockey game, too, as the New Jersey Kovalchuks (who are sucking less of late) visit the New and Improved Atlanta Thrashawks. Look for Atlanta to show Kovy the error of his ways, while the Hundred-Million-Dollar Man tries to build on his recent two-goal outing.

Sunday, 19 DEC: Lake City, FL - This is a travel day for the OGA Boys. Before hitting the road, though, we first must make the pilgrimage to Mary Mac's Tea Room for some excellent Southern home cookin'. Tex Jr. and I have dined there in the past, and give it four thumbs up. After lunch, we'll waddle over to the World of Coca Cola, where we'll get hopped up on sugar and caffiene before rolling about five hours south to Lake City, FL, to crash for the night.

Monday, 20 DEC: Carolina @ Tampa Bay - From Lake City, Tampa is a quick three-hour drive. We'll get there early in the day, so as to sample the local eats and the Florida Aquarium. Need to get to the arena early for this one, too, as the first 5,000 peeps through the door get a Steve Stamkos bobblehead. I believe Homer Simpson said it best: WOO-HOO!!! The Hurricanes are riding a three-game win streak, while the Lightning have won their last two. They're division rivals. What's not to like about this game?

Tuesday, 21 DEC: Go Home - While we'd really like to head back up to Atlanta for the Blues - Thrashers game, familial obligations force us to turn west on I-10. It's probably for the best, as this will be Day Four of a Chevy Tahoe filled with five boys, ranging in age from 9-46 (average mental/emotional age of the group: 12). That's right: Five boys, one SUV, 1,912 miles in four days. This trip can be best described by a movie title: There Will Be Blood.

As is our M.O., The Colonel and I will be Tweeting along the way (@Pelican4 and @OGAs_BigTex, respectively). Follow along out of morbid curiousity, if nothing else.

I've got to finish packing and go pick Tex Jr. up from school, as we've got a six-hour drive to The Colonel's Hockeybunker ahead of us. Tex Jr. will hold my hat while I drive. This is Big Tex, East Bound and Down.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Dallas: This Season's Phoenix?

2010-12-14T16:06:00.004-06:00

(Image unashamedly stolen from Puck Daddy)

Going into the 2009-2010 NHL season, the Phoenix Coyotes were picked by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Western Conference. Off-ice issues - namely, the never-ending ownership/relocation saga - were considered insurmountable distractions for the team. The only thing the Coyotes had to look forward to was a high first-round draft pick in June of 2010...or so virtually everyone thought.

A funny thing happened on the way to the 2010 NHL Entry Draft: Phoenix defied all expectations, posting a 50-25-7 record, good for fourth in the Western Conference. Though they bowed out in the Conference Quarter-Finals, the fact that they made it into the Stanley Cup Playoffs at all was remarkable.

Are the Dallas Stars the 2010-2011 version of the Coyotes? Similarities do exist:

The Stars are currently for sale by Tom Hicks' lenders (Phoenix is currently for sale by Gary Bettman).
They've missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons (Phoenix missed the playoffs six consecutive seasons prior to last spring).
Preseason expectations for the Stars were very low (Ditto Phoenix last season).

Unlike the Coyotes, the Stars don't face the threat of relocation. These teams share one more commonality, however: Like last season's Coyotes, the Stars are going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

As of Game 30, the Dallas Stars are Chasing Stanley, according to the On Goal Analysis Super-Lucky No MSG Added Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC). Last season, the PQC was correct for 90% of the NHL, and the Stars show no indication of falling into the other 10%.

Why the Stars are going to make the playoffs

As a wise man said back in September, the Stars needed to cut their Goals Against dramatically this season. Dallas' GAA for the 2009-2010 season was 2.98 (23rd in the NHL). Through Game 30 this season, the Stars' GAA is 2.67 (12th). Dallas is allowing virtually the same number of Shots on Goal this season (31.0) as last (31.2), so improved goaltending has been key. Kari Lehtonen has been solid, and backup Andrew Raycroft has been a pleasant surprise.

At the other end of the rink, the Stars are scoring only slightly less than last season (2.73 Goals/Game now vs. 2.80 G/Gm then), and the top line of Loui Eriksson-Brad Richards-James Neal (combined: 90GP, 37-53-90, +28)is one of the best trios in the NHL. Having a second legitimate scoring line is essential for success, and the Stars are extremely fortunate to have Brenden Morrow-Mike Ribiero-Jamie Benn (87GP, 21-37-58, -6) coming over the boards.

The Stars also benefit from good health (Lehtonen's current back problems notwithstanding), as ten skaters have played all thirty games, while five more have missed three or fewer contests. This could change in one shift on the ice, but for now, it's very good news for Dallas.

After a two-year drought, I'm looking forward to seeing Stanley Cup Playoff hockey in Dallas again. Come April, I guess I'll have to go to the bank (backyard) and make a withdrawal (dig up the mason jar marked, "Playoff Ticket Money"). I can't wait.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

OGA’s 13 December Non-Traditional Team Report

2010-12-13T08:44:00.004-06:00

Weekly through the season as of games ending on Sunday night, On Goal Analysis will now produce a Non-Traditional Market Team Report so you, the fan, can understand how your favorite Non-Traditional team is playing against the rest of the League.

This week’s (first) report is for games ending Sunday, 12 December 2010.

The NHL as a Whole

At OGA, we measure teams’ play against the rest of the clubs in their Conference in order to determine their probability of making (Chasing Stanley) or missing (Tee Time) the 2011 Playoffs. Since the Lockout, our overall record is just shy of 90% in calling teams IN or OUT of the playoffs at an average of more than 90 days before the mathematical call.

The NHL as a whole is averaging 16.333 wins/about 33 points per team. That's an average winning percentage of .556.

At the same time the top eight teams in the East are averaging 19.25 wins/just over 38 points/a .631 winning percentage; the West is at a 17.5 wins/35 points/.625 winning percentage. (Note the West has played 10 less games than the East at this point.)

Projecting average points for current eighth place teams out to 82 games, the East and West would require right at 96 points for 8th place.

But It’s Not Quite That Simple

Teams, however, will not continue to play at the same pace they currently do. Every season, and just about every team, is full of peaks and valleys. So OGA produces it’s Playoff Power Projections (The P3) to attempt to determine as far out as possible how the NHL stacks up.

Since our emphasis is Non-Traditional Teams (CAR, FLA, ATL, TBL, CBJ, NSH, DAL, PHX, ANA, LAK and SJS) in this report and they cross Conference boundaries, we stack up their P3 numbers with all teams in the NHL as a whole.

As of Sunday, 12 December, The P3 looks like this (Non-Traditional Teams are in bold while other teams on eiter side of them in rank order display their P3 for reference):

DET (120.071)
PIT, PHI, BOS, and VAN
MTL (103.867)
DAL (101.79)
LAK (100.22)
WSH (99.938)
PHX and NSH (99.571)
TBL (98.4)
CBJ and STL (96.642)
SJS and COL (96.138)
ATL (95.667)
NYR (94.813)
CHI (92.581)
ANA (89.455)
MIN (84.828)
CAR (82)
BUF (76.533)
EDM (76.345)
FLA (76.143)
OTT (74.065)
CGY, TOR, NJD and NYI

So Non-Traditional Teams fall between #7 and #25 in rank order, or in the middle 2/3 of the NHL.

Drilling Down A Little Further

Here's some more specifics about our 11 Non-Traditional teams' current status:

DAL is #7 in The P3. They sit atop the Pacific Division and are currently in third place in current NHL standings. They also are not yet Chasing Stanley, but are knocking on the door with their best Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) ranking since the 2006/7 season.

The LAK are #8 behind DAL in The P3. They are currently last in the Pacific Division and sit in 10th place in the Western Conference standings, one scant win away from a Top Eight position. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at Game 19 (G19) on 21 November, and at only G27 right now, they have an opportunity to get to G30 higher in terms of PQC than any season since the Lockout at the same point in the season.

PHX and NSH follow WSH tied in The P3 at #10. For this pair, give the slight nod to PHX with 13 regulation wins to NSH’s 10. PHX currently sits in third place in the Pacific Division while NSH is the same in the Central, and they are sixth and seventh in Western Conference standings respectively. If PHX wins G29 and G30, they will eclipse their previous best at G30 since the Lockout. NSH closing out the G30 furlong with those same two wins will be at their best since 2006/7.

TBL is #12 in The P3. They are in second place in the Southeast and seventh in Eastern Conference standings. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G10 on 29 October. They hit the G30 mark barely shy of their previous best PQC from 2005/6.

CBJ is #13 in terms of The P3. They are fourth in the Central Division/11th in the Western Conference standings fighting tie breakers with two other teams. OGA called them Chasing Stanley at G19 on 22 November. At only G28, they are tied with the 2009/10 version of the Blue Jackets for their best G30 start since the Stoppage.

SJS is #15 in The P3. They sit fourth in the Pacific Division and ninth in the Western Conference, tied with three other teams in tie-breakers for the final playoff position. They are off their normal mark in terms of play and will hit the G30 mark with a PQC that is only ahead of their 2005/6 season.

ATL’s P3 places them in the #17 position. They are third in the Southeast Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference with a bit of a lead over the ninth place holder. They hit the G30 mark tied with the 2009/10 version of the Thrashers for their best 30-game start since the Lockout.

ANA is #20 in The P3. Seemingly out of oblivion, they have risen to second in the Pacific Division behind a DAL tie-breaker and fourth in the Western Conference. Their play has been sporadic, and they actually hit G30 tied for their second worst start since Lockout.

CAR’s P3 rests at #22. They are fourth in the Southeast Division and ninth in the Eastern Conference. At G28, two wins to close out the G30 could place them in the best shape they have been in since 2007/8’s PQC.

And FLA is #25 in The P3. They are last in the Southeast Division and 12th in the Eastern Conference. They are pushing Tee Time, but have not yet made it to that point in their season. At G28 right now, closing out the G30 with two wins could have them barely behind their best start since the Lockout.

Rolling It Up

It is a combination of The P3 and the PQC that allows On Goal Analysis to predict as early as possible whether a team will be IN or OUT of the playoffs and their potential, final standings. While many would have you believe the Non-Traditional Teams are inferior to the rest, the 11 actually sit in the middle 2/3 of the League in terms of their 2010/11 potential with three teams OGA has called Chasing Stanley, or already poised to enter the 2011 Playoffs, and none of them have been eliminated from contention yet.

The Non-Traditional Market, which has spawned no less than four California, one Arizona and one Texas invitee to join the 2011 Team USA World Junior roster, is a force to be reckoned with.

NHL at the Quarter Pole(-ish): Who's In, Who's Out

2010-11-29T21:54:00.003-06:00

Now that the Detroit Red Wings have finally made it past the Game 20 mark AND we've finished all the Thanksgiving leftovers, it's time to look at the On Goal Analysis Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) again. Let's see which teams are now Chasing Stanley (IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs), which ones are at Tee Time (OUT of the playoffs), and which ones are neither here nor there.

Before we dive into all that, let us quickly recap OGA's calls at Game 10:

Chasing Stanley: Montreal, Tampa Bay and St. Louis.
Tee Time: None.
In The Curve: Everyone else.

Got all that? Good - let's move on to the State of the League at Game 20:

CHASING STANLEY

New additions to this semi-exclusive club are: Philadelphia (18 NOV), Washington (19 NOV), Los Angeles (22 NOV), Boston (24 NOV), Columbus (24 NOV) and Detroit (26 NOV).

Of these calls, Columbus was the biggest surprise, but made it in with solid goaltending/team defense and timely goal scoring from the bottom two lines. The Flyers were a bit of a surprise as well, if only because nobody (outside of Flyers' management) saw rookie goalie Sergei Bobrovsky coming. Goaltending is also the story in Boston, as Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask look like the best tandem in recent memory. The Kings have a young and talented team with scoring depth. Detroit and Washington are, well, Detroit and Washington: Chock full o'talent and piling up the W's.

TEE TIME

At Game 20, these teams formally entered the battle for the top pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft: New Jersey (20 NOV), NY Islanders (21 NOV) and Edmonton (23 NOV).

The entire hockey world is still in shock at the Implosion in Newark. Much has been written about New Jersey's problems, and there's no need for another blow-by-blow account here. The Readers Digest Condensed Version is this: All-World goalie Marty Brodeur has a bum elbow, but was looking VERY human before his injury, top winger Zach Parise is out for a few months with a knee injury, and the incredibly talented Ilya Kovalchuk is skating like he's carrying $100mil (in small bills) on his back. For the first time since 1995-96, the Devils will not play in the postseason.

The Islanders, on the other hand, are unsurprising. They're a young team with some talent but no depth, and two of their top players suffered long-term injuries before the regular season began. It took a game against the Devils to end the Isles' 14-game losing streak. Wait 'til next year, Long Island.

2010-11 is another rebuilding season in Edmonton. The Oilers' most talented players are still too young to carry the load, so chalk this campaign up as a learning experience, with a shot at another top draft pick at the end. On a related note, Oil Change, airing on NHL Network, is a fascinating look at what's going on with the Oilers. Check it out.

IN THE CURVE

Everyone else.

SUMMARY/A LOOK AHEAD TO GAME 30

Through Game 20, we've called nine teams IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs - four in the Western Conference, five in the East. Three more teams are now OUT of the playoffs - one Western, two Eastern. That means the fates of eighteen teams have yet to be decided.

By Game 30, we should see one more team called Chasing Stanley in the East, which will leave just two open playoff slots for the remaining clubs to battle over. Also in the East, at least two teams are in grave danger of reaching Tee Time before Christmas.

In the West, an extended hot streak could get one more team into the playoffs by Game 30, while a couple of clubs will need to get in gear just to avoid joining Edmonton at Tee Time.

Check back here for team status updates. As OGA knows, so will you.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

When Do Playoff Tickets Go On Sale, Columbus?

2010-11-26T10:15:00.004-06:00

Here's a sentence I didn't expect to write at any point this season (or next, for that matter):

Tonight, the Columbus Blue Jackets do battle with the Detroit Red Wings for first place in the Western Conference.

Shocking. The Blue Jackets weren't supposed to be this good - not with a new coach installing a new system, a suspect blueline, a suspect goalie and only one scoring line. In a division featuring the defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Hated Red Wings, the new and improved Blues (now with HALAK!) and the perennial playoff-bound Predators, Columbus was picked to finish dead last by virtually everyone, including the entire Puck Daddy staff.

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Blue Jackets did little to prove the prognosticators wrong. After opening the season in front of sparse crowds in Stockholm, they came home and, in front of sparse crowds at Nationwide Arena, served up a 5-2 stinker against Chicago and a 6-2 loss to Calgary. The loss to the Flames prompted Yours Truly to coin the term, "...burning bowel movement of a game..."

The Blue Jackets hit rock-bottom that night against Calgary. From there, they easily could've gone the way of the Islanders and Devils, imploding and playing for the 2011 Draft Lottery Championship. Instead, the Jackets pulled together, compiling a post-Flames-loss record of 11-3-0, including a franchise-first sweep of California (wins at Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose on the same road trip).

Those eleven wins include four shutouts - three from offseason acquisition Mathieu Garon, one from Goalie of the Present and Future Steve Mason. Like the team as a whole, Mason had a shaky start to the season, but continues to improve with every game. Apparently, nothing lights a fire under a goalie like a red-hot backup...and the "suspect" blueline has been surprisingly solid in their own end.

Curiously, Columbus is scoring with alacrity despite the absence of playmaker Kristian Huselius, out for 13 games and counting with a high ankle sprain, and despite a lack (until recently) of production from the second line of Filatov-Vermette-Umberger. The enigmatic Filatov is still searching for his first goal of the season, but his overall game is improving, so it's only a matter of time.

The chemistry of the Nash-Brassard-Voracek line has been key. Since Nash was swapped for Filatov on this line, both Brassard and Voracek have been energized. Brassard, in particular, is playing with high confidence and a smile on his face, both of which were missing last season.

Contributions from the third and fourth lines cannot be overlooked, as the likes of Chris Clark, Kyle Wilson, Derek Dorsett and Jared Boll have picked up the scoring slack for the second line.

In light of the Jackets' 12-6-2 start to the 2009-2010 season, which was followed by 62 games of painful ugliness, many have tempered their enthusiasm by adopting a perfectly understandable wait-and-see approach to this season. Here at OGA, however, we're officially calling the Columbus Blue Jackets IN the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as of 25 November. This is not last season's team. Rather than battling against their coach, the 2010-2011 Jackets are battling for their coach, as well as for each other. They're gaining strength and confidence daily. The fact that Columbus plays Detroit tonight for first place in the Western Conference, while surprising, is no fluke. When do playoff tickets go on sale, Columbus?

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Feast and Famine in the NHL: Hat Tricks and Shutouts on the Rise

2010-11-19T10:10:00.005-06:00

While the first six weeks of the 2010-2011 NHL season has produced a number of compelling storylines, such as the emergence of Steven Stamkos as an elite (Crosby/Ovechkin level) player, the implosion of the New Jersey Devils and the Colin Campbell email controversy, the most intriguing theme to date is the dramatic rise in both hat tricks and shutouts.

MAD HATTERS:

Through Thursday night's action, 24 hat tricks have been recorded in the NHL. With 273 games in the books, that's an average of one hatter every 11.38 games. If this pace is maintained, the NHL will see an impressive 108 hat tricks this season. That's an astounding 47.9% increase over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which 73 hat tricks were scored. For added perspective, consider this: The free-wheeling 1987-1988 season, with Lemieux and Gretzky in their prime, saw 113 hat tricks recorded, while the 1998-1999 season, at the height of the "dead puck" era, chalked up just 56.

More interesting facts: The 3+ goal games are divided almost evenly, with 13 for Eastern Conference snipers and 11 for the West. Also, teams on the receiving end are fairly even, as 13 hatters have been against Eastern clubs, with 11 vs. the West. Perhaps most intriguing is the tendency to "keep it in the Conference," as 9 of 11 Western Conference hat tricks have been scored against other Western Conference clubs. Of the 13 Eastern Conference hat tricks, 11 were scored against Eastern teams.

CLEAN SLATES:

At the opposite end of the spectrum, NHL goalies have recorded 38 shutouts through 273 games this season. At an average of one every 7.18 games, that's an increase of 9.6% over the 2009-2010 campaign, in which shutouts came once every 7.94 games.

Shutouts are split right down the middle, with 19 each for Eastern and Western Conference goalies. A dramatic disparity is seen, however, in the victims of shutouts: 24, or 63.2%, have come against Eastern clubs, while only 14 (36.8%) have been against the West. This is due in part to the Western Conference's 41-21-9 record vs. Eastern teams. While just 4 of 19 shutouts by Eastern goalies came against Western teams, Western goalies racked up 9 of 19 shutouts against the East.

CONCLUSION:

An increase in hat tricks would seem to indicate a league-wide increase in scoring, while an increase in shutouts seems to indicate the opposite. What's going on? Scoring is up only slightly over last season (5.65 goals/game in 2010-2011 vs. 5.53 in 2009-2010), so the answer must lie elsewhere.

My theory is this: The combination of cap issues (in Chicago and New Jersey, among others) and injuries (in Colorado and St. Louis, among others) has caused an influx of not-ready-for-primetime skaters from the AHL and major junior leagues. The large number of relatively inexperienced players on the ice has resulted in higher-quality scoring chances across the league, which snipers (Stamkos, Semin, et al), savvy veterans (Ed Jovanovski, Raffi Torres) and even a few talented youngsters (Derek Stepan, Chris Stewart) have exploited.

On the flip side, those very same inexperienced players have struggled mightily to score against clubs with solid goaltending and good team defense. Boston, St. Louis and Montreal (combined) own 12 of 38 shutouts in the NHL this season. The Bruins and Habs are ranked 1-2 in team Goals Against Average (1.76 and 2.05, respectively), and the Blues were in the top three until a rash of injuries brought on their recent defensive struggles.

Curse the salary cap and injuries all you want, but they're making the 2010-2011 NHL season one to remember.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

NHL Overtime on VERSUS: Wysh's Wants and More

2010-11-16T13:49:00.003-06:00

I was fully prepared to write a thorough critique of NHL Overtime, VERSUS' new hockey analysis show, but it seems a certain blogger who never sleeps beat me to it. Thus, I'll just point out my agreements and disagreements with Mr. Wyshynski, and add a thought or two of my own.

AGREEMENTS:

1. Dump The Desk, Ditch The Suits. Wysh is right: Put the talking heads in a more comfortable, casual environment, and let the conversation flow. This show should be a hockey-centric BOGSAT - a Bunch Of Guys Sitting Around Talking about hockey. Taking it a step further, as a viewer, I'd like the ability to text or email questions and have them answered on air. Get current and former players, coaches and management-types on the show, and get them to open up. Last night, for example, while Bill Patrick, Billy Jaffe and Bill Guerin were discussing Scott Gordon's dismissal by the Islanders, I would've loved to ask Guerin, "Bill, you played for the Islanders from 2007-09. Is this organization any less screwed up now than it was when you were there?"

2. Reinvent the highlights. Again, what Wysh said. I thought the first show was too highlight-heavy and analysis-light. If you're going to show highlights, break down a specific play. Don't give us what we can get on Hockey Central or NHL On The Fly. Again, using last night's show as an example, they could've shown Henrik Lundqvist breaking his stick, throwing it, and drawing an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty after allowing two goals in 38 seconds, then analyzed the questionable officiating which contributed to King Henrik's outburst...or debated pros and cons of Lundqvist losing his cool...or both.

4. More News, More Up-To-Date News, And More News We Care About. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but...what Wysh said. How can you NOT talk about Colin Campbell's emails? What does Bill Guerin (or better yet, any recently-retired player) think about the "NHL Wheel of Justice"? (really, I'm talking about the NHL's seemingly capricious method of enforcement here, but DGB's flowchart is pure genius) Among other things, I want controversy. I want to know how many players agree with the statement, "NHL officiating is the worst in professional sports". I want to know, if the players voted, would Nick Lidstrom have won all those Norris Trophies? I want discussion and debate of current hockey events which mirrors the intensity and passion of The Great Game itself.

5. Keep Going "On Location". I would've liked a glimpse inside the Rangers' locker room after their come-from-behind OT win last night. Based on Jim Cerny's Tweets, it was quite a scene. Gimme somma dat, VERSUS.

DISAGREEMENTS:

3. Either Drop The Rundown or Steal From ESPN. Un momento, Señor Wyshynski - structuring a hockey show in a three-period format is tragically unhip? I beg to differ, sir. All the best Blog Talk Radio shows featuring guys Jabbering about Hockey use this format.

JURY STILL OUT:

6. Finally, Give Us Copious Amounts of Billy Jaffe. I'll have to see more of Mr. Jaffe before passing judgment. While I liked his energy, he did trip over his tongue a few times. Maybe it was first-night jitters. Time will tell.

BIG TEX'S TAKE:

Along with fewer highlights, more analysis and a more relaxed setting, how about throwing in some college and major junior hockey talk? Maybe pick one Top Prospect for the 2011 Draft each night, show some of his highlights and discuss which of the current NHL bottom-dwellers needs him most? Along the same lines, looking at some of the top AHLers would give fans a glimpse of the future of their franchise. Last, but not least, a smattering of fantasy hockey talk wouldn't hurt. After all, the majority of people who will stay up until midnight Eastern to watch NHL Overtime have at least one fantasy team. Give 'em a good tip or two for players to start (or bench) for tomorrow nights' games.

Of greater importance than the content of the show, the Monday night premiere of NHL Overtime on VERSUS sent a message: NHL, VERSUS loves you with all its' corporate heart, and wants you back next year. And the next. And the year after that. Do you think ESPN would put an hour-long NHL show on The Mothership four days a week? Winged monkeys exiting Gary Bettman's rectum comes to mind.

While some will argue in favor of ESPN's higher profile (roughly 26 million more viewers than VERSUS), I recall well their treatment of the NHL during the last few years of that TV contract. Remember the "less is more" fable, when ESPN cut the number of games broadcast, and shunted most of those off to ESPN2? Given the option of broadcasting NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL games, The Leader In Sports will always choose the NHL last. ALWAYS. Better the NHL should remain a big fish in a small pond, particularly since that pond is growing.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

OGA’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) At The 15’s

2010-11-15T09:38:00.004-06:00

All but BOS have made it to or past the Game 15 (G15) mark, and CHI has made it to G20. Where does the NHL stand in On Goal Analysis terms?

Chasing Stanley

From the G10 call, a glance at the OGA Home Page tells you MTL, TBL and STL are Chasing Stanley, or IN the playoffs in 2011. OGA knows right now of one more team that will be announced as Chasing Stanley at G20, and another three that should relatively easily join the ranks as well (that’s a total of two from each Conference). There are two more on the bubble (again, split between the Conferences) that are likely Chasing Stanley candidates depending on how they finish out the G20 stretch. If all of those teams make it to this level by G20, that total of nine is behind the average of Chasing Stanley calls at G20 by 2.4 teams. This reflects the parity that has crept into the NHL this season bigger than ever. For the naming of those teams, keep your eye on the OGA Home Page for G20 updates.

In The Curve

The teams playing just about average fall in this category and represent the old Bell Curve in PQC calls as most teams rest here for about half of the season.

In the East, we are tracking six teams solidly at Chasing Stanley at G20. There are three more on the bubble that could slip just below In The Curve at Dusting Off Clubs or as low as Tee Time. Out West, CHI was called In The Curve last night at their G20 mark. In that conference, there are another nine teams with solid shots at In The Curve and one more on the bubble for something lower. Again, those calls will be on the OGA Home Page as team G20’s arrive on the calendar.

Tee Time

And we are looking at possibly two teams hitting the Tee Time mark – eliminated from Playoff contention – at G20. Again, underscoring League parity, we average 2.6 Tee Time calls by G20, so two teams called OUT would be just a little below average.

This Week’s PQC Calendar

G20 PQC calls this week mark up the calendar pretty well. Last night, CHI hit G20 with an In The Curve call. You are looking at a schedule like this through next Sunday:

MON – None

TUE – ANA

WED – BUF and PIT

THUR – PHI

FRI – ATL, NYR, OTT and WSH

SAT – CAR, COL, MTL, NJD and TBL

SUN – NYI, PHX and VAN

During this week, we will see some Chasing Stanley, possibly a little Tee Time, and a lot of In The Curve action as we will have more than 50% of the NHL’s G20 call by then.

Just A Little More Insight

And just to bring you a little deeper into where we are with our assessments, below by conference is our own, internal power ranking order through games ending Sunday night, 15 NOV:

Eastern Conference – WSH, PHI, MTL, BOS, NYR, OTT, TBL, PIT, FLA, CAR, ATL, TOR, BUF, NJD and NYI

Western Conference – LAK, DET, STL, VAN, CBJ, SJS, ANA, NSH, MIN, PHX, DAL, COL, CHI, CGY and EDM

Teams in bold are your conference Top 8 we project out to G82 based on how they are performing. We see the West similar to last season where it might just take more points than average to earn that #8 seed. We also see at the moment that the East may fall out a lot like last season where you can solidly pick the teams who will be Chasing Stanley relatively early with a high degree of accuracy.

Summary

And that is your G15 Playoff Qualifying Curve summary for 2010/11. There’s plenty more Hockey to play this season and nobody quite knows where the next Blues-like eight game winning, or Isles-like 10 game losing, streak lurks. Stay tuned to OGA for your calls of IN or OUT of the playoffs at the earliest possible moment.

Naming Conventions: The New All Star Teams

2010-11-11T10:12:00.004-06:00

What to do, what to do?

With a potentially great, new way of choosing the All Star team players upon us (way to go Shanny!), there's another consideration to be made here: What do they name the teams? I think you have at least four potential courses of action (COAs) here.

COA 1 - The Captains

Yes, you could surely name them after the two team Captains. They will, for all intents and purposes, be those Captains' teams ala road hockey style. I like the concept. It has a cool upside as a tip of the hat to pond/street hockey. The downside is a slight risk of alienating the non-true Hockey fan by picking someone else's player and not 28 other teams' fan favorite. Risk here is minimal, though. I rate this option at 3.5 of five stars.

COA 2 - The Coaches

Another option. In my opinion, it is just an OK COA. You have two downsides: people tip their hat to a coach, but really like their bench bosses semi-transparent; and you will alienate 28 other teams by putting CURRENT coaches behind the bench. If recognizing the coaches in this manner is desired, you cannot pick this COA unless you pick a retired coach. Think Scotty Bowman, here. This COA is a bit dicey, so I rate it two out of five stars.

COA 3 - The Old School

Here's an option for you to consider. Something like a Wales Team and a Campbell Team. Rockin' the RBC with an acknowledgement of the old NYI and EDM dynasty days? That is a slick option. The only drawback I see immediately? There will be people in attendance and watching via their favorite media method who will need to be told just what a Wales and Campbell are. Give this one three of five stars.

COA 4 - My Favorite

This is the best COA in my opinion. Name the teams after two great, former players. Make them the honorary team GM's. Give them a role as team spokesmen and choose a couple of venues for media and fan interaction, and give them some access to the team for inspirational purposes. I am a fan of Team Howe and Team Orr this year. I flat out rate this as a five-fer-five stars, on the Richter scale, or any other way you want to measure it.

And I leave it to the Puck Daddy staff and fans to tell us: If you chose one of the above COAs, what does your jersey look like?

NHL Weekend Roadie: The Widowmaker

2010-11-08T22:15:00.003-06:00

This installment of the NHL Weekend Roadie is aptly named, “The Widowmaker”. The name is apropos because, when you tell your Significant Other you’re taking this trip, she’s going to kill you.

If you’re single (or looking to become single), you’ve passed the first major hurdle. Next, you have to ask yourself some questions, such as:

1. How close am I to my family?
2. How dedicated am I to The Great Game?
3. Can my bank account withstand a roadie of epic proportions?
4. How long can I survive on arena food before scurvy sets in?

If your answers to the above questions are, “Not Very”, “VERY”, “Probably” and “At least a week”, then read on.

The itinerary:

NHL Weeks Seven AND Eight (Friday, 19 NOV – Monday, 28 NOV)

Friday, 19 NOV: Washington @ Atlanta – This epic roadie kicks off in Hotlanta with a tilt between Southeast division rivals. The last time these teams met at Philips Arena, Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec collapsed on the ice and exited the arena on a stretcher, but Atlanta rallied for an emotional 4-2 win. While this game (hopefully) won’t be quite so dramatic, it promises to be a good one.

Saturday, 20 NOV: Nashville @ Carolina – Today, you’re up early and on the road, as you’ve got a 411 mile, seven-hour drive ahead of you. As mentioned in a previous post, plan on getting to the RBC Center early to tailgate with the Hurricanes fans. After the party, the real fun begins: a game between regional rivals. Will ‘Canes rookie Jeff Skinner go all highlight reel on the Preds? Will Shea Weber, like Stella, get his groove back? It’s worth the drive to find out.

Sunday, 21 NOV: NY Islanders @ Atlanta – Remember that 411 mile, seven-hour drive? Well, you’re doing it again today. This game starts at 5:00pm, so plan accordingly – these are two up-and-coming clubs, so you won’t want to miss any of the action. Which goalie will collapse first – Pavelec, or the Isles’ Rick DiPietro?

Monday, 22 NOV: Boston @ Tampa Bay – Tampa is 456 miles/7.5 hours from Atlanta, so you might want to consider driving part-way after the Thrashers-Isles game Sunday night. Your fourth game in as many nights features two of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference, so it shouldn’t disappoint. This will be the first time to see newly-minted superstar Steve Stamkos and 2010’s No.2 draft pick, Tyler Seguin, on the same sheet of ice.

Tuesday, 23 NOV: REST – Hey, after four-in-four and 1278 miles, you’ve earned a day off. Sleep in, then head over to Indian Rocks Beach for lunch at Keegan’s Seafood Grille. Explore Tampa if you like, but above all, take it easy.

Wednesday, 24 NOV: NY Rangers @ Tampa Bay – If the Rangers are playing anywhere in Florida, expect an energized, sellout crowd. The Blueshirts are currently playing the best hockey of Coach John Tortorella’s tenure, while the Stamkos-led Lightning are surging. This Thanksgiving-eve matchup might just be the highlight of the trip.

Thursday, 25 NOV: American Thanksgiving – The holiday gives you another day off. Call your family from the beach and quote Jimmy Buffett to them: “The weather is here, wish you were beautiful.” They’ll hang up, of course, but you’ll be able to say you did your familial duty. Enjoy the rest of the day. Have some turkey and dressing…or mahi-mahi and a margarita, perhaps. Watch football if you must. Tomorrow begins the last leg of your epic journey.

Friday, 26 NOV: NY Rangers @ Florida – Your 229 mile, four-hour drive today should be a breeze. As with Wednesday night’s game in Tampa, expect a sellout. Don’t let the Panthers’ current 5-7-0 record fool you – heinous officiating was a direct contributor to two of their losses. The Panthers and Rangers are two of the hardest-working teams in the NHL right now, so expect plenty of blood, toil, tears and sweat tonight.

Saturday, 27 NOV: Florida @ Tampa Bay – It’s 229 miles/four hours back to Tampa on this day. While this rivalry has lost intensity over the past few seasons, it looks to be heating up again. Back in September, many pundits picked the Lightning to return to the playoffs and the Panthers to return to the Southeast division cellar. In the first meeting of the season between these clubs, Florida spanked Tampa, 6-0, in Sunrise. Tonight, the Lightning will attempt to return the favor in front of their own fans.

Sunday, 28 NOV: Boston @ Atlanta – Your final drive of the trip is another 456 miles/7.5 hours back to the beginning of “The Widowmaker” – Atlanta. If you’ve made it this far and aren’t having nightmares involving hot dogs and nachos, consider yourself lucky. Because no journey should end without a reward, the OGA Boys hereby make the following offer: The first person to email mike@ongoalanalysis.com will receive two FREE tickets to this Bruins-Thrashers game.

Monday, 29 NOV: GO HOME…to whatever home remains after eight games in ten days, over 2,192 miles.

So that’s it: an epic Thanksgiving holiday week roadie. The OGA Boys’ record roadie thus far is five games in five days (including a Columbus Day doubleheader at Nassau Coliseum and Madison Square Garden), so we know eight-in-ten is very doable (though our wives say otherwise). If you can pull off this road trip, let us know; we’ll be happy to testify on your behalf at your divorce hearing.

HOTELS – Check Hotwire.com for your hotel needs in Atlanta, Raleigh, Tampa and Sunrise. Right now, there are great deals to be had on four-star joints in Tampa and North Fort Lauderdale on the applicable dates.

FLIGHTS – You’ll be flying into (and out of) Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International, which is the busiest airport in the world. If you don’t factor delays into your travel, you will regret it. If you’re flying in on Friday, 19 NOV, book an early morning flight.

FOOD – Check these sites for great one-of-a-kind (non-chain restaurant) dining:
Anywhere: http://www.roadfood.com/ or http://www.flavortownusa.com/
In Atlanta: http://www.atlanta.net/dining/index.aspx
In Raleigh: http://www.visitraleigh.com/visitors/restaurants/
In Tampa: http://tboextra.com/dining/
In Sunrise: http://chowhound.chow.com/topics/494808

TICKETS – Tickets are available through all team websites, as well as StubHub. For those too lazy to Google it, here are the links:
Atlanta Thrashers
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning

GETTING AROUND – Three words: REN.TAL.CAR. Get one with unlimited miles, or you’ll quickly discover it would’ve been cheaper to simply buy a used car, then re-sell it at the end of the trip.

Yes, this special edition of the NHL Weekend Roadie is very Southeast Division-centric, and with good reason: First and foremost, the Southeast is rapidly becoming the most exciting division in the NHL, as the dominance of the Washington Capitals has forced Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Florida to change in order to become more competitive. Also, with all the “windshield time” involved in this roadie, good driving conditions are a must, and the weather in Georgia, North Carolina and Florida is quite nice in November. You call yourself a hockey fan? Prove it – hit the road!

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

OGA’s Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) At The Game 10 (G10) Mark

2010-11-06T11:49:00.002-05:00

With BOS’ game last night at WSH, all 30 teams have hit the G10 mark. What does the PQC tell us at this point? Let’s start with average wins in the NHL as a whole and work our way down to individual teams’ PQCs…

The NHL’s Wins At G10

Although I am not hearing it plastered all over the blogosphere and media, the G10 mark underscores a high level of parity out of the gate. Here are the numbers:

NHL Average G10 Wins 05/06 – 09/10: 5.47 NHL Average G10 Wins 2010/11: 5.58

These numbers are bolstered by the Western Conference G10 average wins which are 1/3 of a game higher than the Conference average and an entire 1/2 game higher than the Eastern Conference.

And because memories are shorter in terms of comparing lots of figures, at the G10 mark last season the NHL Average G10 wins were 5.55 with the Eastern Conference leading in average wins 5.7 to 5.56. In order by Division in the East are the Atlantic and Southeast tied with 5.6 wins per team and the Northeast with 4.8. Out West, the divisions fall out Central (6.7 wins), Pacific (5.5) and Northeast (5.3). If you recall at G5, the Southeast and the Central Divisions were the leaders and tied with a 3.2-wins-in-5-games average. The Southeast dropped off a bit from G6-10 and the Central continued to spank opponents.

Overall, a modest uptick from last year to this one and a reversal of Conference averages, sure. But what is different is the effect on the PQC.

The PQC At The G10

After 10 games, On Goal Analysis has called three teams – MTL, STL and TBL – Chasing Stanley, on IN the 2011 playoffs. BOS and DET were designated Sharpening Skates, our moniker for just short of IN the playoffs but on the right track. And NJD received a qualified Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from possible Playoff contention. That left 24 teams In The Curve, or just about average, as no teams were called at Tee Time and OUT of the post-season.

That minute .3 of a game increase in average wins, because the difference in winning and losing in the NHL is just THAT close (see finger and thumb squeezing ALMOST together), equates to the lowest number of PQC IN or OUT calls for any season since the Lockout. On average, at G10 there are 5.6 calls of Chasing Stanley and 1.2 calls of Tee Time. Last season, we had four Chasing Stanley’s and two Tee Times at this point. So, ladies and gentlemen, we have the very shape, form and substance of P-A-R-I-T-Y as expressed by our earliest possible predictions of who would be IN or OUT of the playoffs this season. And when you look at our secret concoction of figures that makes up the PQC, numbers are so close we cannot even apply any adjustments to Conference numbers to aid in making IN or OUT calls for G20.

Our job this season at OGA is going to be tougher…

Teams Versus The PQC at G10

Because your favorite team is important to you, we wanted to tell you who are big gainers and losers against our proprietary call at this mark.

As stated above, in the Eastern Conference, MTL and TBL are Chasing Stanley, NJD is Dusting Off Clubs and all others are In The Curve.

MTL’s start is just above their average at G10. But this strong start has only been equaled once (2005/6) and bested once (2008/9) in the previous five seasons. They traditionally start strong, but bear watching when the G50 mark rolls around which is why Canadiens’ fans are tense in February.

TBL’s start has never been below In The Curve since the Lockout. But this year, due in large measure to Coach Boucher’s attacking system and the team’s skills in executing it, the Lightning have had their best G10 start since 2005/6.

NJD’s season has, well, been a debacle so far when compared to previous, post-Stoppage seasons. At G10, they were 53.7% below average in terms of wins. That is HUGE in an NHL where on average 1.5 games separate Number 9 from 8 in the standings at the end of the regular season. When you add up: the Kovalchuk contract dropping the number of skaters on the roster; the enormous number of injuries (only 10 of 27 forwards and defensemen who have made the lineup card have played all 15 games so far this season, Parise out for four months and Brodeur now has a bum elbow); and the huge pressures on a team and rookie coach from a fan base in a home building they have yet to secure a win in this season; you get the possibility of an implosion that they cannot recover from. And teams in the East who were in the previous year and fail to make the playoffs the next, usually fail in a big way. No, not yet at Tee Time by G10, but we just may be seeing golf balls and club purchases increasing in the Turnpike State at G20.

And while the 12 other Conference members are In The Curve, average PQC gainers over last season are CAR, FLA, NYI and TOR, losers are BUF, NYR, OTT, PIT and WSH, and ATL and PHI are no measurable change. Of note is that for those on the losing side of the PQC listed here, BUF is in the most distress. Their former patterns since the Lockout were two years IN the playoffs and two years OUT. So to carry that forward, they should still be IN this year. That will NOT be the case unless they put some W’s up in the standings.

For the Western Conference, only STL is Chasing Stanley and all others are In The Curve. ‘Curve gainers are ANA, DET, LAK, MIN, NSH and VAN. Losers are CGY, CHI, COL, EDM and PHX. And CBJ, DAL and SJS show no real change from last year.

On the down slope side of things, COL’s start to last season was phenomenal. Enough to have OGA call them Chasing Stanley at G10 on 23 October 2009. But while they have not equaled that start at this point, no need to panic as they are right about on normal pace at this point of the season. Like MTL, they are a team to watch right around the G50 mark for acute signs of trouble. And while EDM’s PQC is below the overall average, they are still ahead of their 2005/6 Stanley Cup G10. This team has one year where G20 was their downfall, but most often January (G40) is unkind. Starting off in a hole can only be mastered with a lot of talent and character/experience. We will see if The Oil has enough to get them over the hump this season or not, but dang, are they entertaining to watch.

And finally, DET and NSH are the biggest gainers over last season at G10. Remember here that they both were quite slow out of the gate last season, picking up their most steam in the final 10-20 games of the year and on into the Playoffs. Strong starts set a positive tone throughout an organization, so look for these two clubs to go forth with confidence.

If We Had To Pick ‘Em Today

Our team PQC projections if we had to pick who is actually IN the playoffs in April based on where they are on 5 November would look like this in order from 1-8:

Eastern Conference – BOS, WSH, TBL, PHI, MTL, NYR, ATL and TOR. That’s a change of four new teams making the post-season that were not there last season.

Western Conference – STL, DET, LAK, VAN, CBJ, DAL, NSH and MIN. That is also a change of four new teams in the playoffs.

The average, post-Stoppage change across the NHL from season to season is only 5.25, so eight new teams from last year seems like too many, yes? Possibly so, but with the most parity in the league to date opening this season, eight new teams may be the actual, final difference.

Summary

So we have more parity with a stronger Western Conference than Eastern at Game 10 this season. On the bubble in the East going forward are BUF and NJD in distress. Out West, in moderate distress is EDM and on the upswing are DET and NSH with LAK nipping at their heels.

Will those PQC’s and parity hold through G20? OGA is continuing to analyze team play against The Curve and changes are a coming. Stay tuned to On Goal Analysis for all G20 calls by 26 November…

Too Simple...

2010-11-02T21:48:00.006-05:00

It's bold. It answers a need. It's too easy (sort of). And almost works...

Could the first big trade of the season be Zach Parise from New Jersey to Toronto for as little as Tomas Kaberle? How on earth could THIS happen?

The Pluses

Both teams have something to gain by this move.

Toronto:

1. Needs secondary scoring. Parise. (To borrow from Paul Bissonette) Boom. And don't think Brian Burke doesn't know the value of a Parise, his Olympic Finals game-tying goal scorer.

2. Tomas Kaberle is likely moved by the Trade Deadline or lost in free agency next summer.

3. And Toronto Cap Space (per Gap Geek) is $4,091,944 in room plus $4,250,000 if Kaberle moves. This equals better than $8.3M to offer Parise in the neighborhood of $6M to the $6.67M Cap Hit of Kovalchuk with some wiggle room to spare for future considerations.

New Jersey:

1. Might be asked for Parise and have a currently, slightly damaged forward they can move now for something to prop up a sagging team.

2. Can't move the puck out of their own end if it were fired by a cannon due in large measure to the torrent of injuries affecting this defensively-minded team. They need a Kaberle to move the puck.

3. They also cannot score from the blue line - they have five goals from three defensemen and six of 10 who have been on the roster this season with no points at all.

There's Just One Thing...

That damn Cap is in the way. New Jersey (again with a hat tipped to Cap Geek) has $0 Cap Space with relative (but legal) room being 'borrowed' off of $1.2M in Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) money bought back against the cap. So a loss of Parise's $3.5M with the addition of Kabele's $4.25M equals a $750K deficit that would equal more games with only 15 skaters and, ultimately, more losses. This, New Jersey cannot afford. (Not to mention Parise is potentially the face and future of the franchise.)

Summary

So no, Leafs' fans - you are not really likely to get yourself a Zach Parise on your team tomorrow.

Well then why on earth did this #@! blog get pushed out onto the Internet?

To show you that what might seem like a no-brainer to flog a GM with is not likely so simple. You would do better to speculate that Toronto might trade Kaberle for Bobby Ryan or even better, Chris Stewart on teams that are ranked 27th and 30th respectively in goals against average and need a solid defender on the blue line.

Hey! Now there's a rumor or two for you...

The NHL Weekend Roadie: West Coast Stargazing

2010-11-01T09:07:00.004-05:00

Another week, another NHL Weekend Roadie. If you don't already have plans for the second weekend in November, well...you do now. As with all OGA-approved roadies, it’s guaranteed good, featuring two games between divisional rivals and a bonus game between a Cup contender and a talented young team on the rise. If that’s not enough entertainment for one weekend, you can also go to Disneyland. Intrigued? Read on:

The itinerary:

NHL Week Six (Thursday, 11 NOV – Saturday, 13 NOV)

Thursday, 11 NOV: Dallas @ Los Angeles – The last time these teams met, the Stars were embarrassed, 5-2, on home ice. They’ll be looking to return the favor on their first West Coast trip of the season, and they’ve got the firepower to do it. This is a contract year for Dallas pivot Brad Richards, and his stats (10GP, 3-11-14, +7) indicate his desire for a raise. Wings James Neal, Loui Eriksson and Brenden Morrow lead the Stars with 5, 5 and 6 goals, respectively…The Kings, led by Justin Williams’ 5-6-11, +5 in 11 games, are no slouches, either, and currently sit atop the Western Conference with a record of 8-3-0. Expect a hard-hitting game with plenty of scoring on this night.

Friday, 12 NOV: Dallas @ Anaheim – The last time these teams met, the Stars were embarrassed, 5-2, on home ice. Does that sentence sound familiar? Well, that’s exactly what happened. Dallas will be looking for revenge for the second night in a row. The fatigued Stars should start backup goalie Andrew Raycroft against the Ducks, as well as a player or two who were scratched Thursday night. One of those fresh players will undoubtedly be enforcer/winger Krys Barch. The Stars and Ducks, division rivalry aside, really do not like each other. If Barch doesn’t drop gloves with George Parros, I’ll eat my fedora.

Saturday, 13 NOV: NY Islanders @ Los Angeles – Head back to the Staples Center Saturday night to catch the Islanders – Kings game. The Isles, led by 2nd-year centerman John Tavares, are currently battling injuries to a couple of key players (Mark Streit and Kyle Okposo), but have enough individual talent to make for an entertaining game (and a solid win for the home team, if they stay focused). Besides, the boys from Long Island count one of the toughest players in the NHL among their number: Zenon Konopka. Konopka’s 265 PIMs led the league in 2009-10, and he’s currently on pace for 373 this season. Hey – if your first name was “Zenon”, you’d fight a lot, too.

As with last weeks’ trip, this is three games in three nights in two arenas. The difference is the short driving distance between games, which allows for more free time during the day. Live it up – go to Disneyland during the day and watch exciting NHL games at night. Does life get any better? Okay, maybe if there was an NHL team in Las Vegas…

HOTELS – As always, the OGA Boys recommend Hotwire.com for your accommodations. As always, we anxiously await a check from Hotwire for our weekly plugs. For the weekend in question, a room in a three-star establishment within 4 miles of the Staples Center may currently be had for $84/night, while 3.5 stars within 4 miles of the Honda Center (and Disneyland) are listed at $66/night. Where you stay depends on your choice of extrapuckular activities, so plan carefully.

FLIGHTS – The OGA Boys suggest an early morning flight on Thursday, so you have plenty of time to check into your hotel and catch a pregame nap, even if your flight is delayed. Remember: you gain time flying west, but lose it going back east. Plan accordingly.

FOOD – The tremendous number and variety of restaurants in the greater Los Angeles area can be overwhelming. To help narrow it down, we recommend roadfood.com and flavortownusa.com – you can’t go wrong with either one. Two tips: First, if you go to the Nickel Diner for breakfast, don’t miss the Maple Bacon Donut. Second, none may claim to be a fan of the French Dip without making the pilgrimage to Philippe’s, the (alleged) birthplace of the bread, beef and au jus masterpiece. If thoughts of maple bacon donuts and French Dips don’t put a rumbly in your tumbly, you’re on your own.

TICKETS – A decent selection of seats remain for the Stars-Kings game, but they’re selling fast. If you can’t find what you like through Ticketmaster, try either the Kings TicketExchange or StubHub.com. Plenty of good seats are available for Islanders-Kings. The Stars-Ducks contest Friday night is far from sold out, though premium seats near the benches or penalty boxes will have to be purchased through TicketExchange or StubHub.

GETTING AROUND – If you don’t want to drive around El Lay, well, we understand completely. While some driving can’t be avoided, you can take Metrolink rail to both the Staples Center and Honda Center. If you take the train to the two Kings games and buy your tickets at the arena box office, show your Metrolink ticket stub and get a 10% discount on your game ducat (NOTE: The OGA Boys strongly recommend purchasing your tickets in advance for the Stars-Kings game, as it will most likely sell out).

This might just be the most relaxing NHL Weekend Roadie yet: Two games between division rivals, a third game between the Kings and the up-and-coming Islanders, and you can stay in the same hotel for the duration of the trip. Great hockey and a great time, guaranteed.

DO NOT MISS the next installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie, as we send you on an NHL odyssey which will push your Significant Other to the limits of his/her endurance! Wanna test the strength of your relationship? Just tell your S.O. you’re seriously considering taking this road trip.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

The PQC, Non-Traditionals, And The End Of October

2010-10-31T22:03:00.002-05:00

For the end of October, we here at OGA are finding some interesting things in terms of the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and Non-Traditional team play.

The October 2010 PQC…

While not yet at Game 10 (G10) for all teams, in all years since the Lockout, OGA averages six PQC calls by the end of October. (For G10, it is 6.8.) This October, OGA has two PQC calls, both of Chasing Stanley, and IN the 2011 Playoffs, for MTL and TBL. By G10, we will have NO calls of teams at Tee Time – eliminated from 2011 post-season play – and only a maximum of four Chasing Stanleys. For October, that’s a two-third’s drop in total G10 calls from the average. For G10 if two more teams make Chasing Stanley, that’s a decline of one-third.

Why the negative trends in total calls made? It is what the NHL has been seeking. That word synonymous with drama – PARITY. Truly, on any night, any team can and has been winning. Many examples abound:

FLA defeating MTL at Le Centre Belle the night after MTL is dubbed Chasing Stanley.
TOR from one OTL through G10 last season to a combination of 5.5 wins to open this season.
LAK’s best opening home record in more than two decades…

This all means our job of determining who will be IN or OUT of the playoffs as early as possible is going to be much more difficult.

Look for more drama in the G20 spread. We should be at 14 PQC calls made and are interested to see how far off the average we are going to be.

The Non-Trads At October’s End

Where do the 11 non-traditional teams stand after the conclusion of October 2010? From highest to lowest and as of games completed on 30 October, we rank them for their end-of-season potential as follows:

TBL, LAK, NSH, SJS, CBJ, DAL, ATL, CAR, PHX, FLA, ANA

Out of these 11, the actual 30 October standings would indicate TBL, LAK, NSH, CBJ, DAL and ATL, or just over half, would be in the Playoffs if they began today. Our power rankings projected out to Game 82 indicate the same six above plus SJS would be amongst the teams qualifying for the playoffs.

There are obviously many more games to go this season. But a projection of 7-of-16 or 43.8% of Playoff teams coming from the Non-Trad markets is a good justification to continue playing Hockey ‘down south.’ After all, it is the southern markets that hold a better chance of growing the sport than in Canada where Hockey is already practically religion.

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The Stanley Cup Playoffs...in October?

2010-10-27T10:44:00.003-05:00

NHL fans, pundits, players and management alike have watched the unfolding trainwreck that is the 2010-2011 New Jersey Devils with a mixture of horror and fascination (and if you're a Rangers fan, amusement). While some might've suspected the Devils would struggle a bit as they adjusted to a new style of play, nobody could've predicted New Jersey's 2-6-1 start to the season, much less an NHL-worst goal differential of -15. Around the league, people want to know: What's happening in Newark?

As an amused observer (Let's Go Rangers!), I have my own take on the situation: The Devils' transition away from the Trap and towards a more up-tempo, attacking style of play is a direct result of signing Ilya Kovalchuk to a 15-year, $100mil deal over the summer. Kovy is an offensive dynamo, but defensively disinterested. Looking at it through the lens of Devils management, if I'm going to make such a hefty long-term investment, I'm going to make sure I get my money's worth. Kovalchuk consistently put up All-Star-level numbers in Atlanta, where he was (essentially) a one-man band; just imagine what he could do when surrounded by New Jersey's talented supporting cast (some of whom are stars in their own right).

Clearly, though, the Russian star couldn't reach his full potential while playing the Trap. Thus, the Devils had to change their style of play. Enter new head coach John MacLean. "Die Hard" was designated to lead (coach) New Jersey to the offensive Promised Land. The result thus far? Well, check the standings...the bottom of the standings. Why are the Devils struggling to adapt to the new system? I have a couple of thoughts:

First, Coach MacLean is tasked with teaching old dogs new tricks. By that, I mean the Devils roster contains six forwards and three defensemen over the age of 30...and let us not forget their 38-year-old future Hall of Famer goalie, who has spent his entire NHL career playing in a Trap-type system. Simply put, old habits die hard.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, the New Jersey defensive corps suffers from a desperate lack of players named Rafalski or Niedermayer - in other words, swift-skating and experienced offensive defensemen. Cap constraints have forced the Devils to lean heavily on youngsters who must now learn on the job.

What does it all mean? John MacLean's tenure as head coach is the subject of league-wide speculation. Given the teams' struggles and GM Lou's hair-trigger track record, the speculation is understandable. From where I sit, however, "Die Hard" is safe (for now), as management seems to be taking the long view at this time. They have to take the long view: they've got Kovalchuk for the next fifteen years.

In the short term, however, tonight's game at San Jose could very well have playoff implications for the Devils. Here at On Goal Analysis, we know that every point counts, and teams must play along or above the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) in order to remain in contention for a playoff berth. New Jersey is in grave danger of falling so far below the PQC that they can be called at "Tee Time" - that is, eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In October? Yes, in October. While we won't come right out and say tonight's game against the Sharks is a "Must-Win" for the Devils, the OGA Boys will say this: Two points sure couldn't hurt.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Sunday Morning Odds & Ends

2010-10-24T10:04:00.003-05:00

Assorted thoughts on all things NHL this fine Sunday morning, 24 October 2010:

The Chicago Blackhawks are the first team in the league to reach Game 10. They are In The Curve...OGA's Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), that is. While the 'Hawks 5-4-1 start may seem a bit rocky for a defending Stanley Cup Champion, it's really not bad, considering the tremendous influx of new players this season and the time needed to establish chemistry with new linemates, not to mention Brian Campbell's injury, Nik Hjalmarsson's two-game suspension...does it sound like I'm making excuses for the Blackhawks here? I'm not - they're doing just fine, all things considered.

The Columbus Blue Jackets played a desperately-needed bounceback game in Chicago last night. After going down, 2-0, the Jackets rallied to win, 3-2. I like Coach Arniel's decision to start Steve Mason again after Friday night's debacle (a 6-2 home loss to Calgary). Though only a couple of the Flames' goals can be pinned on Mase, it was best for him to "get back on that pony and ride", so to speak, rather than stewing over it until Tuesday night. Mason turned in a solid 30-save effort against the 'Hawks, and the team in front of him was much improved. Note of concern: Nikita Filatov opened the game on the fourth line and didn't touch the ice in the third period. New coach, same old doghouse. At this point, I have to question Filatov's maturity and desire to compete. So far this season, he's shown brief flashes of brilliance (mostly on the PP), and has looked the rest of the time like he doesn't want to get dirty. If he could find a little grit to go with those hands, Filatov could be great. If not, he could be Patrik Stefan.

After last night's 1-0 win over Dallas, the Nashville Predators are still the only team in the NHL without a regulation loss (4-0-3). As a Stars fan, I say, "Well done...ya jerks!" Seriously, I'm impressed by the Predators' ability to find ways to win. This team doesn't get the respect it deserves from the rest of the league.

I know it's very early, but I can't help myself: Looking at the standings this morning, I see that IF THE PLAYOFFS BEGAN TODAY, the entire Central Division would be in...and St. Louis would have the good fortune to face Calgary in the first round. It's far too early to draw any conclusions from this, of course, but it's interesting.

Back East, the News O'The Day is Ilya Kovalchuk's healthy scratchiness last night. Seeing as how Kovy has a No Movement Clause in effect until July, 2016, methinks John MacLean's days as the Devils' head coach are numbered...After allowing 13 goals in their first three games, the New York Rangers have allowed just six goals in their last three. Interestingly, the Blueshirts also scored 13 in their first three and six in their last three. They went 1-1-1, followed by 2-1-0. The difference? Better team defense/team play in general, as everyone seems to have stepped up their efforts following the injury to Marian Gaborik...Last, but not least, I'm high on the Florida Panthers right now. Aside from their stinker against Dallas last Thursday, the Panthers have outworked their opponents nightly. One bright spot in particular is the play of Rusty Olesz (6GP, 2-3-5, +4), who seems determined to live up to his cap hit.

At 6:00pm Eastern tonight, I'm planning on catching at least the first period of the Predators-Lightning game. I'd like to watch the whole thing, but the New Jersey October Trainwrecks roll into Madison Square Garden at 7:00, and I've gotta see Avery vs. Brodeur and Kovy (assuming he's not scratched again). In conclusion, let me say...Let's Go, Rangers!

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

The Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) At Game 5 (G5)

2010-10-23T10:18:00.003-05:00

Sure it is early in the season. Only five games in, right? No need for anything close to panic.

Or is there? If you have been following On Goal Analysis’ (OGA’s) PQC for the last several seasons, you will know that OGA's proporietary measuring stick has called 34 of a possible 150 teams either IN (Chasing Stanley) or OUT (Tee Time) of the playoffs by G10. Yes, all of these games count – just read several comments that have been posted lately from coaches, GMs and even The Hockey News about how important a good start is. (Just like we have been telling you since the end of the Lockout.)

So where are we at G5, conference by conference? A quick look is telling…

The Eastern Conference

Overall, the average of the 15 Eastern Conference teams’ PQC is above the G5 PQC. It is, however, below the post-Lockout Conference average. This is due in part to the Eastern Conference’s winning percentage of .538 so far this season and that their record after games on 21 OCT against the West is only 12-12-3.

From last year, this conference displayed eight PQC increases at G5, and seven decreases. Of the decreases, BUF, NJD, OTT, PHI and PIT all were playoff teams last season and all but PHI had a PQC that was 50% or less of 2009/10’s total. The largest drop off was BUF who’s G5 PQC this year is 1/3 of last season’s. And the largest gain was Toronto at nine times better than last season’s G5, the largest leap in the NHL at G5.

Division averages against the PQC in order from highest to lowest are Southeast, Atlantic and Northeast. This is something of a reversal of fortunes as the Southeast is not normally the leader. But four of the five teams in the Division are in the Top 10 of their conference standings. While the Southeast and Atlantic Division PQCs are above normal, the Northwest’s is below average despite the play of BOS and TOR.

We also know at this time that eight of the 15 teams will not be called Chasing Stanley – IN the playoffs – by G10. If you want to know who they are immediately, subscribe to OGA’s Daily Tip In Report.

The Western Conference

Overall, the average of the 15 Western Conference teams’ is above average in terms of both the PQC and the Conference average. The West’s .587 average winning percentage after games on 21 OCT is a primary reason for this occurrence.

From last year, this conference displayed seven PQC increases at G5, and eight decreases. Of the decreases, CHI, COL, PHX and SJS were the playoff teams with a PQC drop off. Unlike back East, no Western Conference team had a PQC that was 50% or less of last season’s total. The largest degradation was EDM who’s G5 PQC this year is .571 of last season’s. The biggest Western gain was Minnesota at 2.5 times better than last season’s G5.This all points to a higher winning percentage against Eastern Conference teams and the possibility of another tight race in the West for playoff positions.

Divisions against the PQC in order are the Central, Pacific and Northeast. While the Pacific Division traditionally leads the West, this is not too far out of character. The note here is that the Central and Pacific are above average while the Northwest is below.

We also know at this time that nine of the 15 teams will not be called Chasing Stanley by G10. This is due in some measure to their higher G10 PQC requirement. Again, you can find out who they are immediately by subscribing to OGA’s Daily Tip In Report.

And that’s your G5. Stand by for updates as CHI hits G10 on Saturday, 23 October so the first PQC call of the season is coming right up.

Columbus: The Perfect Hosts

2010-10-23T07:48:00.003-05:00

Friday night, the Columbus Blue Jackets hosted the Calgary Flames at Nationwide Arena. The Flames should send a "Thank You" note, as the Blue Jackets proved themselves perfect hosts.

"Hi, Calgary - come on in! Great to see you guys! Food is in the kitchen and it's All You Can Eat, so go nuts! We have an open bar, too. Make yourselves at home. You want to score a shorthanded goal tonight? No problemo! Couple goals in the final minute of the period? Can do! Power Play goals? Hmm...I'm afraid we're out of those, but I'll tell you what: We'll let you score just seconds after the penalties expire. Will that work for you? Great! What's that? You've had too much to drink and want to shag my wife? Oh, what the heck - go for it! I'll drive you home afterwards!"

That, in a nutshell, was the game. If Columbus coach Scott Arniel had the ability to call up enough players, I could provide a list of (at least) nine forwards and five defensemen who earned themselves healthy scratches. Unfortunately, the Jackets play tonight in Chicago, so many players who don't deserve to will take the ice. On the upside, I fully expect a decent rebound tonight, as it's physically impossible for Columbus to play worse than they did last night.

This is the second burning bowel movement of a game the Blue Jackets have offered their home fans this young season. If they don't get it together, the only thing the team and their shrinking fanbase have to look forward to is the first overall pick in next June's entry draft.

Here endeth my rant (for today, anyway).

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

The NHL Weekend Roadie: Hello, November!

2010-10-21T09:44:00.003-05:00

This weeks' installment of The NHL Weekend Roadie features a trip for the first weekend in November. A month into the new season, teams are beginning to gel as players shake off "summer rust" and start to establish chemistry with new linemates. It's a good time to be a hockey fan...and an even better time to hit the road for three NHL games in three days.

The itinerary:

NHL Week Five (Friday, 5 NOV - Sunday, 7 NOV)

Friday, 5 NOV: Boston @ Washington - Fly into D.C. Friday morning and head over to Ben's Chili Bowl for a half-smoke (a link sausage served on a hot dog bun, unique to D.C.) and a piece of sweet potato pie or cake (they're both good). Check into your hotel and hose yourself off, then get to the Verizon Center to watch the visiting Bruins take on the hometown Capitals. This will be the third meeting of the young season between these clubs, following their Black & Blue series of 19 & 21 October. This should a hard-fought game, perfect for the first Friday in November. After the game, get some sleep, as you're hitting the road tomorrow for...

Saturday, 6 NOV: Florida @ Carolina - Hop in your rental car and point it south. Just 260 miles/4.5 hours later, you'll find yourself pulling into the parking lot at the RBC Center. The puck drops at 7:00pm, but get there early: Hurricanes fans like to tailgate! Once you've had your fill, shuffle to your seat inside the arena and buckle your seatbelt, as this will be the second game of a Black & Blue series for these division rivals (they play @ Florida Friday night). The 'Canes are trying to bounce back from a nightmarish 2009-10 season, while the Panthers, picked by many in September to finish last in their division this season, are off to a good start and might just be the hardest working team in the NHL right now. Guaranteed fireworks in this game!

Sunday, 7 NOV: Philadelphia @ Washington - This day requires some careful planning, as you've got another 4.5 hour drive ahead of you, tonights' game starts at 5:00pm...AND you've got an important pregame stop to make in DC: Comet Ping Pong. Guy Fieri hit this place on Triple-D, and the man's got good taste. Go order your pizza (or calzone; they rock, too), then get your blood flowing with a game of ping pong while you wait. Get stuffed, then get thyself back to the Verizon Center for the first meeting of the season between the Flyers and Caps. It's another guaranteed good one, folks.

Three games in three nights in two arenas. A double dose of Ovie & Co. Tailgating before a hockey game. Intense rivalries. Great food. What are you waiting for? Hit the road, Jack!

HOTELS - As always, the OGA Boys recommend hotwire.com for your accomodations (and they don't even pay us to say that). Rooms in DC are notoriously expensive (think New York), but good deals can be found just outside of town. Right now, in Arlington, VA (no more than six miles from downtown DC), a room at a four-star hotel on the night of Friday, 5 NOV, will set you back just $65 (plus tax). Sunday night, a 3.5-star room near Dulles International Airport is just $59. Saturday night in Raleigh, a three-star hotel near the RBC Center will go for around $50.

FOOD - As always, check either roadfood.com or this Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives-related site. These people know food, and they won't steer you wrong.

TICKETS - Only single seats remain for the Bruins-Capitals game, but pairs (and more) may be had through TicketExchange or StubHub. Plenty of great seats remain for the Panthers-Hurricanes game, and it's Family Night, which means great deals on blocks of 4 seats AND $1 hot dogs. In the immortal words of Homer Simpson, WOO-HOO!

GETTING AROUND - You'll need to rent a car for your run down to Raleigh, so check Hotwire for the best deal. Also, check out the DC Metro for rail service to and from the Verizon Center.

Is there a better way to celebrate the first weekend of November than with some great NHL action in Washington and Carolina? Definitely not! Get your game and airline tickets, book your rooms and rental car, and hit the road - the OGA Boys'll see you at the rink!

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

Portrait Of A...

2010-10-20T23:17:00.004-05:00

See the guy above whose hands Rick Rypien are all over? That is a portrait of a full-fleged, bonafide (you fill in your favorite adjective here).

That's right - he is a (fill in another one here) to not only a Wild sweater, but any Hockey jersey from any team, anywhere near a sheet of ice.

In the military, someone not dressed in a combatant's uniform and carrying his weapon openly is legally considered a terrorist. While there won't be a tribunal here, had arena security known this yahoo would secretly enter the building with a lawyer tucked in his back pocket, they would have at least charged him properly for two tickets.

The only people jumping for joy at this call for litigation are the bottom feeding, ACLU card-carrying, litigators.

I hope the judge grew up in Michigan as a Gordie Howe fan so he can toss this (one last adjectivial shot here) out of his court on his apparently tender hind quarters - no worry there as his lawyer will break his fall...

OGA's Black and Blue Schedule - Pair #4

2010-10-18T21:53:00.003-05:00

Tomorrow night, On Goal Analysis' Black and Blue (B&B) Schedule resumes as we begin a BOS @ WSH and WSH @ BOS pair over the next three nights.

If you remember from the original post, the B&B Schedule is one of 30 pairs of games this season in which the opponents play back-to-back in each other's building with no other opponents in between to muddy anything. The theory of the schedule was that "...due to the increased nature of competition against the same foe for a consecutive game, the following things will happen in Game 2 of the pairing:
1. The opposite team will win the game
2. The likelihood of the game going into OT / SO is higher
3. There will be more penalty minutes awarded...."

So far this season, the NHL Premiere games in Europe all qualified as B&B pairs. Within, at least one of the three premises of the theory above was born out, and in two of the three pairs, two occurred. We eagerly await the outcome of this B&B special with or last one of the month being NYI @ MTL and MTL @ NYI, something that did not work out so well for the Canadiens in the not too distant past.

Order more ice packs, bandages and sutures as we work our way into the BOS/WSH series on Tuesday and Thursday nights...

Shakin' Things Up in Columbus and Dallas

2010-10-15T14:53:00.003-05:00

The Columbus Dispatch is reporting defenseman Mike Commodore is a healthy scratch for tonight's home opener against Chicago. Unlike last season, Commie's conditioning is not the issue; this time, it's his mobility (or lack thereof). Just two years ago, Commodore was the lynchpin of (former) coach Ken Hitchcock's defense, averaging 22:54 of ice time a night. Through the first two games of the Scott Arniel era, the blueliner saw his ice time cut to just 13:40, and he'll spend this evening in the press box.

The message seems to be clear: Mike Commodore is not a good fit for Arniel's system. Unfortunately, he also owns Columbus' third-highest cap hit this season ($3.75mil), as well as the next two. The combination of "fit and hit" instantly makes Commie trade bait, and the fact that he can still play should give the Blue Jackets good value in return.

IN DALLAS, alleged Swedish phenom Fabian Brunnstrom was waived today. Brunnstrom scored a hat trick in his NHL debut...and it was all downhill from there. A left-handed shot on a team full of lefties, Brunnstrom simply couldn't crack the Stars' top six, and couldn't adapt to the NHL game while sitting in the press box. This season, he's making $675k, and he'll be an RFA next June. For such a small investment, it's hard to imagine an offensively-challenged team not taking a flyer on the Swede.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

The NHL Weekend Roadie: Halloweekend

2010-10-14T12:14:00.004-05:00

The 2010-2011 NHL season is upon us, boys and girls. It’s time to start thinking seriously about hitting the road – perhaps to follow your favorite team on a road trip, or maybe to see a compelling matchup in person…or, if you’re like the OGA Boys, you probably want to see at least one game in every NHL barn. We’re working on getting our “NHL arena passport” stamped, and you can, too!

Unless you’re independently wealthy and have plenty of free time on your hands, you’re not going to hit all 30 NHL arenas in one season. You can chip away at your goal, however, by checking out The NHL Weekend Roadie. In it, we offer our suggestions for a road trip for every weekend of the season. We’ve already covered weeks one (too late), two (hurry up!) and three (still a little time!). This week, we’re looking at Halloweekend, the fourth weekend of the NHL season.

The itinerary:

NHL Week Four (Thursday, 28 OCT – Sunday, 31 OCT)

Thursday, 28 OCT: Phoenix @ Detroit – This roadie begins on Thursday, as the NHL is dark on Halloween. The second meeting of the season between these two clubs should be a good one (they meet in Phoenix on 16 OCT for the Coyotes’ home opener). After losing to Detroit in the playoffs last spring, Phoenix would like nothing better than to beat the Red Wings in their own building. The rest of the free world would probably enjoy it, too.

Friday, 29 OCT: Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh – Hey, it wouldn’t be a true “roadie” if you didn’t drive anywhere, right? Get up early, hop in your rental and hit the road to Pittsburgh (285 miles, approx. 5 hours drive time). You’ll surely be hungry when you get there, so do not pass go, do not collect $200, go directly to Primanti Brothers for your meal-in-a-sandwich fix. If you’re not in a sammich mood, try Pierogies Plus for some old-school, Eastern European comfort food. After you’ve stuffed your face, head over to the brand-spankin’-new CONSOL Energy Center to watch the Penguins take on the cross-state rival Flyers. This will be their third meeting of the season (Philly spoiled the Pens’ debut in their new arena, defeating Pittsburgh, 3-2, on 7 OCT).

Saturday, 30 OCT: Nashville @ Detroit – After you awaken from your food coma, drive back to Motown (still 285 miles, still about 5 hours drive time) for another game between division rivals. Detroit’s aging stars strive for one more shot at the Cup, while the young Nashvillians look to topple the (Red) Wing Dynasty. If you’ve regained your appetite by the end of the game, follow the crowd to Lafayette Coney Island for a chili dog (or three).

Sunday, 31 OCT: No NHL games today. Go home!

HOTELS - As always, we recommend checking Hotwire.com for your accomodations. Currently, a three-star hotel room in Downtown Motown can be had for just $59 on Thursday night, while a comparable room in Dearborn (a short drive from the Joe) on Saturday night will set you back $74. (Note: While staying in Windsor, Ontario is a cleaner, safer alternative to Detroit, rooms there are slightly more expensive and you'll need a valid passport to cross the border.) Friday night in Pittsburgh, a three-star room near the airport is currently $49, while three stars downtown will cost you $86.

FOOD - If the choices mentioned above won't work for you, check out either Roadfood.com or this Diners, Drive-ins and Dives-related website. The OGA Boys have eaten at over half a dozen establishments featured on Triple D, and we've never been disappointed.

TICKETS - Great seats are still available for both games in Detroit, either through Ticketmaster or season ticket holders. While the Pens-Flyers game is sold out, plenty of season ticket holders are willing to sell.

GETTING AROUND - Even if you fly into Detroit, you'll need to rent a car to get to Pittsburgh and back, so check Hotwire for deals. As long as you're paying for it, you might as well get your money's worth. If you want to avoid the hassle of arena parking, however, try Detroit's People Mover. At just $.50/ride, it's a very reasonable option, and it'll take you right to The Joe. While not as convenient as Detroit's People Mover, there's a T Station just two blocks from the CONSOL Energy Center.

The last NHL Weekend Roadie in the month of October will get you three games in three days - one in a brand-new arena, and two in an aging classic. You can catch some great hockey, eat fantastic food, and still be home in time to go trick-or-treating Sunday night.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

JabberHockey - The Jabber Strikes Back

2010-10-11T21:24:00.005-05:00

Tabula Rasa, baby. Clean slate.

A new season is upon us and that means history becomes geology. With the NHL Premier weekend behind us, the OGA scoring line returns with JabberHockey to deconstruct the opening festivities as well as discuss what's new around the OGA HQ here at On Goal Analysis.

Did you miss us as much as we missed you? Yeah, we feel it to.

Join us Tuesday night for our fantasy roundtable, FanFantasy and chirp in to add to the discussion in the chat room or via a phone call during our Open Ice Hits segment.

I'm going to put the Colonel on the spot and have him reveal the hockey madness of mind that finds the OGA Black and Blue schedule. It's like peeling back the layers of an onion only to find more onion. Obvious, but pungent. And you might cry a little.

On Goal Analysis' weekly hockey talk show, JabberHockey is live every Tuesday at 10.30PM Eastern. Topics vary each week as we highlight the lamps currently burning up the NHL. Always with a focus on our proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), we offer unique insight into each teams' chances of making post-season play...and the stories to unfold along the way. OGA Knows. And you can, too. Please join us!

take me back to ongoalanalysis.com

Fantasy Funnies, or Do I Really Look That Stupid?

2010-10-05T22:20:00.006-05:00

The puck hasn't yet dropped on the 2010-2011 NHL season, and I've already gotten one good post-draft laugh out of my fantasy league. I received the following trade offer today, which made me LOL. It's too good not to share:

Him: Offering Dion Phaneuf and Marty Turco, for...
Me: ...John Carlson and Roberto Luongo.

While the trade itself struck me as humorous in an absurdist sort of way, my would-be trading partner felt the need to include the following justification for the deal:

"I will take your worst defender for a great defender. Also i will swap for Lungo (sic). You have Lundqvist, he can carry you alone. Turco will be really good with the defending Stanley Cup Champions in front of him. Think about it, they made Niemi look like an all star. Send counter if you dont like, but seems fair to me. Youll still get goalie stats, now you get help up front. 10 for 50 and 86 for 235 ranking, favors you."

Get that? Phaneuf is a "great defender". Turco will be "really good". Also, the trade "seems fair", though in the end, it actually (somehow, magically, mysteriously) "favors you" (meaning me).

I don't know exactly when the milk first exited my nostrils, but it was probably at the "great defender" line. At first, I couldn't decide whether this was a serious offer, or seriously tongue-in-cheek. After a couple of re-reads, I decided it had to be serious. Well, I couldn't simply decline the offer without comment, so I made a counter-offer of Luongo and David Booth for Turco and Ilya Kovalchuk, with the following comment:

"Phaneuf is a 'great defender'? Seriously? C'mon, man - just because I'm from Dallas doesn't mean that I don't know anything about hockey...And because I'm from Dallas, I know all about Turco's inconsistencies. One week he's a world beater, the next week, he's stink on ice. I'm keeping Carlson because he's going to be this year's Tyler Myers. As for my counter, Booth is healthy and poised to lead a rebuilding Florida club. Points you lose in swapping Kovy for Booth, you'll make up by getting Luongo for Turco. Sacrifice some goals, improve your goalie stats."

While I wait for a response, I'm starting to rethink Phaneuf. If he and Elisha Cuthbert are still an item, she could sit with me in the Owners' Box for all our home games. Hmmm...

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

The Non-Traditionals And Their First 10 Games

2010-10-05T19:57:00.002-05:00

Here at On Goal Analysis (OGA), we are decidedly in favor of growing The Great Game. With all due respect to our northern neighbors where Hockey was invented, you grow the game where you have the most potential to spread it to new people. In the NHL, that means the markets down ‘south of the border.’

While OGA analyzes all NHL teams’ ability to make – or not make – the post-season as far out as possible, of particular emphasis are the Non-Traditional teams, the Non-Trads. In this case, we mean (from East to West) Carolina (CAR), Florida (FLA), Tampa Bay (TBL), Columbus (CBJ), Atlanta (ATL), Nashville (NSH), Dallas (DAL), Phoenix (PHX), Anaheim (ANA), Los Angeles (LAK) and San Jose (SJS).

For this blog, we tell you how each of these teams played last year and on average since the Lockout coming out of the chute for the first 10 games of the season. Why are these games important when another 72 follow? When you look at it as measured by our Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), you know that we called Colorado Chasing Stanley – IN the playoffs – and Toronto at Tee Time – OUT of the post-season – among our calls by Game 10 last season. We also discuss the Back-To-Back (B2B) schedule because those games do not allow for adequate rest, recuperation and refocusing of the team for the next contest.

And for good measure, we throw in a couple of notes about some of the other teams based on what we saw in the pre-season.

So before the first puck drops that officially counts, here is your Non-Trad analysis through Game 10 for the 2010/11 regular season.

The Carolina Hurricanes

Last year? Last season, well, CAR would just like to forget last season’s first half. While they could not be called OUT by G10, this was the team’s worst start since the Lockout and a harbinger of things to come over the following 30 games.

The Best? There should have been no doubt in 2005/6 when they won the Stanley Cup that they were at least heading to the post-season by the end of their first 10 games (G10). But they began the 2007/8 season in the same manner as their Cup run year and tripped up badly in mid-season. In short, they have been sporadic, in large measure due to accumulated team injuries over the course of the seasons.

G10 Average? By this season’s G10, they will have played three B2B pairings. Opening in Helsinki against MIN for a B2B that qualifies as one of one of OGA’s Black-And-Blue Schedule pairs, they come home for five days before a five-game road trip to OTT and out to the west coast. By G5, they have had 13 days to play those games for a normally comfortable 2.6:1 days-to-game ratio. But the issue here is all of those games are on the road. In fact, eight of their first 10 fall out that way – the scheduling Gods were not kind to the ‘Canes to start this year.

What Should They Do This G10? Since the Lockout, CAR’s trend is for a strong season start. They win on average by Games 2, 4, 6, 7, 9 and 10. This season, that would be versus MIN, VAN, LAK, PHX, NYR and PIT. That would suit them just fine. But they are just as likely to take the first two against MIN in Finland, OTT or VAN, SJS or ANA, an OT/SOL at PHX, and one-to-1.5 wins in the G8-10 range. If they surpass that, they are a force to be reckoned with for the season as long as good health accompanies them along the way.

The Florida Panthers

Last year? Last year the Panthers had their worst G10 start since the Lockout and were called at Tee Time. That call remained just as sound in April as it was before Halloween.

The Best? Arguably, their best season since the Lockout was 2008/9 where they played In the Curve – about average – all season and only lost a playoff berth on a tie-breaker that is no longer en vogue. While they displayed steady improvement against the PQC from 2006/7 through 2008/9, last year was a huge valley.

G10 Average? Unlike CAR, by G10 they will have played only one B2B pairing which is under the Conference average. That comes in the first two nights of the season on a Western Canada swing, while they enjoy a 2.4:1 days-to-game ratio through G5. The back half of their G10 has a marginally better ratio of 2.6:1, but contains an Eastern Canada road trip.

What Should They Do This G10? Post-Lockout, FLA wins on average by Games 2, 4, 6, and 9. This season, that would be against VAN, TBL, NYI and MTL. Those four wins are not the pace the team wants in order to be a contender. It is possible they could take one on the road in Western Canada, one-to-two at home from TBL, DAL and/or NYI, one more in Eastern Canada, and hopefully G10 versus ATL. If they can equal or best that, they stand a chance of playing past April 10, 2011.

The Tampa Bay Lightning

Last year? In 2009/10 the Bolts had an average, In The Curve G10 start, just as they always have since the Lockout.

The Best? Their best season since the Lockout by a slim margin was 2006/7 where they played just above the 2005/6 season, the last two times they have been to the playoffs. The 2007/8 and 2008/9 seasons displayed a negative PQC trend, which finally improved last season.

G10 Average? At G10 they will have played two B2B pairs at just above the Conference average. Their first five games have one B2B pair with a 2:1 days-to-game ratio, and the G6-G10 period has the other at 2.4:1. With five games at home and five on the road, the Lightning will enjoy a more milk-toast-like opening G10 that should provide ample opportunity to succeed.

What Should They Do This G10? Post-Lockout, TBL’s trend is just a bit under CAR’s. They win on average by Games 2, 5, 6, 8 and 10. This season, that would be against MTL, DAL, NYI, NSH and PHX. Despite this pre-season, TBL should get a ‘W’ against ATL to open the season, one-to-two more on their road trip in G2-G4, another one or two in G5-G8, and will test their mettle against PIT and PHX in G9 & G10. A win out of those last two with five in their first eight will put them on that winning path they need to make the playoffs this season.

The Columbus Blue Jackets

Last year? Columbus had their second best G10 start last season. They even carried that success on through their best G20 start, garnering the OGA call for Chasing Stanley which later turned into a disappointing Shot Off The Post, one of only three incorrect PQC calls in 2009/10.

The Best? Their best G10 start since the Stoppage was their 2007/8 campaign, a non-playoff season. The 2008/9 playoff season was a significant notch under their best but the only season and they made it to the post-season. This was because they played just above the eighth and ninth-ranked teams’ and the Eastern Conference averages. The margin between IN and OUT of the playoffs for the sixth through 10th place teams is always slim.

G10 Average? At G10 they will have played three B2B pairs, a pair above the Conference average. Their first four games are B2B’s including the NHL Premiere against San Jose in Stockholm which qualifies as one of OGA’s Black-And-Blue Schedule pairs. Their last pairing is G6–G7 the third week in October. Through G5, their days-to-game ratio is 2.6:1 (with post-Euro jetlag involved) and 2:1 for G6-G10.

What Should They Do This G10? Since 2004, the teams’ trend for G1-G10 is to win at Game 2, 4, 6, and 9 plus another half-game at G10. That’s against SJS (in Sweden), MIN, CGY, EDM and an OTL at COL. A split in Sweden would be a great morale booster for the team that underscores NHL parity. After Sweden, they host CHI and fly to MIN on Friday and Saturday, so the MIN victory of the two might be more likely. Between ANA, CGY and CHI in the next three, if they are playing well this season then one of those three should fall in the ‘W’ column. And PHI, EDM and COL in their last three being a win-and-a-half may or may not happen. What this team needs is to beat their average in the first 10 as an indicator of something closer to a playoff berth on their horizon than not.

The Atlanta Thrashers

Last year? Last season, ATL made it to Game 10 In The Curve, or just about average as most teams play in that time span. While they could not be called either IN or OUT, this was the team’s second best start since the Lockout behind the 2006/7 season when they made it into the Playoffs.

The Best? Of note, while they have not qualified for the post-season since then, they have shown positive PQC growth in each of the last two seasons following their dreadful 2007/8 start. This is important to the team as their 2005/6 through 2008/9 seasons were decided in the PQC on average by Game 26. Last season, they were not called at Tee Time until Game 50, indicating the same kind of steadily improving track the Chicago Blackhawks have been on over the last three seasons.

G10 Average? In this season’s G10, they have three B2B pairs to play, a number greater than the Eastern Conference average by a bit more than one pair. They open at home versus WSH and the next night play at TBL before a three-game west coast swing which includes their second B2B pairing. So by G5, they knock out five games in nine days, or a 1.8:1 days-to-games ratio. This is worse than the more comfortable 2:1 days-to-game ratio for recovery from bumps and bruises they see later on. Games 6 – 10 hold three Atlantic Division opponents (BUF x 2 and the NYR) and a reverse pairing from opening night of versus TBL at home and at WSH as their final B2B pair of the stretch.

What Should They Do This G10? On average since the Lockout, they win by Games 2, 4, 7 and 9. But they will need to do better than that to keep their heads above water. This season, those wins would be against TBL twice, ANA and the NYR. If they are anything like they look on paper, they might easily split the four, total games with TBL and WSH, achieve the same from their two games with BUF, grab at least one win out in California and maybe catch NYR napping for an OT– or SOL. If they surpass that, they are on a path similar to 2006/7 and a potential post-season bid.

The Nashville Predators

Last year? The Predators’ G10 last year was their worst first 10 games since the Lockout. From 2006/7 through 2009/10, NSH only won two of their first five games. In three of those seasons, the team picked up the pace for G6-G10. In 2009/10, however, that second-half output was worse than the first five. The Preds still made the playoffs last season – which is why you cannot ever truly count them out – but they paid for the S L O W start the rest of the way.

The Best? Their best G10 was in the 2005/6 season, although the following year turned out to be their best finish. That first, post-Lockout season was a wire-to-wire performance of consistency, however.

G10 Average? NSH’s two B2Bs through G10 are right about average and are split between both halves of the furlong. Their 2.2:1 days-to-games ratio through G5 has only one game on the road versus CHI. They also have the same ratio on the back half of these games which, between the two, provides a playing rhythm that the team can get some measure of comfort from. Their second B2B is an at DAL and TBL mini-road trip.

What Should They Do This G10? In the last five years, NSH has on average won Games 2, 4, 6, 8, 9 and another half-of-a-game at G10. Painfully for the Preds, that’s at CHI, versus WSH and PIT, at TBL, versus STL and a half-game thrown in at DET. What’r the odds on those wins? Would you want them? If they split those 10 games, I say they have had a good start to the new season.

The Dallas Stars

Last year? Dallas began last year just off pace for the type of year that took them to the playoffs their first three seasons following the Lockout. In fact, it was exactly equivalent to the start of the 2007/8 season which saw Dallas proceed to the Western Conference finals.

The Best? Their best start since the Stoppage, however, was the 2006/7 campaign, the kind of playoff season Stars fans yearn to see again. If they can start somewhere between last season and 2006/7, they will likely be both a surprise and on their way to a successful season.

G10 Average? Dallas starts with a ‘leisurely’ single B2B pair through G10. It comes in their first pair on the road at NJD and NYI. The days-to-games ratio through G5 is 2.2:1 and through G10 is 2.4:1. All in all, a decent time to recuperate from bumps and bruises and reset between games and focus on a new opponent each time.

What Should They Do This G10? Over the last five season, the teams’ trend for G1-G10 is to win at Game 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 and 10. This season, that’s against NYI, DET (on Mike-Modano-Returns-To-DAL-Night), TBL, NSH, ANA and BUF. Getting one ‘W’ every other game through the first six would mean to capture six wins they need to add three-of-four in their G7-G10 home stand. Between NSH, ANA, LAK and BUF, no team is a pushover, so if DAL begins with five versus six wins, don’t be surprised.

The Phoenix Coyotes

Last year? The Coyotes of last season had their best G10 start since the Lockout. Since it was also the first time they made it into the post-season since the Lockout, it is a good marker for success in follow-on seasons.

The Best? See above.

G10 Average? Like CBJ and LAK, PHX suffers three B2B pairings in the first 10 games of the season. The opening pair is against BOS in Prague and qualifies as part of OGA’s Black-And-Blue Schedule. After five days off returning from Europe, they are versus DET and at ANA B2B as well. Their days-to-games ratio through G5 is a deceptive 2.6:1 which is actually two pairs with multiple days in between. The third B2B kicks off a road trip the week before Halloween at both MTL and OTT. G6-G10 has a 1.8:1 ratio which means it will be more difficult to find any kind of comfort zone for recuperation and preparation over the second half of this furlong.

What Should They Do This G10? Since the Lockout, the ‘Yotes on average have won at Games 2, 5, 7 and 10. [Of note: of all of the Non-Traditionals they are the only team without a win for a given game (G9) since the Stoppage.] For PHX, those wins would be versus BOS (in Prague) LAK, MTL and TBL. While you can expect it is likely to get a split in Europe, they can get ahead of their curve with a ‘W’ on the weekend of 16 & 17 October. Another win versus LAK or CAR is possible in G5 and G6. Another victory from one of the three road games to MTL, OTT and DET is needed, and the traditional G10 winner would all come together to only set them In The Curve. If they can add an additional victory or two in there as well, they will have as good, or better, a start than last, successful season.

The Anaheim Ducks

Last year? In 2009/10, Anaheim had their worst G10 start since the Lockout. While they played .500 Hockey by G5, in G6-G10, they only put out a .200 effort.

The Best? Their best season since the Stoppage was the 2006/7 Stanley Cup winning year. That season, they were called Chasing Stanley at G10. Since then, there has been a constant downward trend by season’s end in terms of the PQC.

G10 Average? At G10 they will have played two B2B pairs at just about the Conference average. The pairs are split evenly with one before G5 and the other after. They start hard out on the road with a 1.6:1 days-to-game ratio. But G6-G10 is better at 2.2:1. Seven of the first 10 are on the road in a three-gamer road trip, with a home stand before a four-gamer out of town. A mixed bag of team bonding and fatigue from travel, the Ducks will need some character for a good showing out of the chute.

What Should They Do This G10? Since 2004, the teams’ trend for G1-G10 is wins at Game 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10. That’s versus NSH, VAN, PHX, PHI and DAL. Over the last five years, this team has played .560 Hockey at home and .437 on the road. So in the first three-gamer road trip, one win would be about average. Their home stand should have a game-and-a-half in the W/OTL column, and the last, four-gamer road trip could have one-to-two wins. If they do that, then about 4.5 W’s should ensue. That’s a bit under the PQC, but not something that cannot be overcome. If they are better than that, you may have them heading in the right direction back toward the playoffs.

The Los Angeles Kings

Last year? Last year was the Kings’ first foray into the Post-season since the Lockout. Many predict a return with even better results this season. It may be interesting to note last year’s start was only their second best since the Lockout.

The Best? The interesting note is that last year was not as good as their 2005/6 kickoff. Both seasons, in fact, looked about the same through G40. The Kings just could not sustain the ‘W’s’ in 2006 like last year.

G10 Average? Los Angeles has three B2B’s through G10. They are on the road to bookend the 10 games and split the pair home and away in the middle. Days-to-games by G5 is 2.4:1 and through G10 is a harried 1.6:1. Ouch. But their final five games are all a road trip through the guts of the Continental U.S.

What Should They Do This G10? In the last five years, the Kings have won on average on the evens – Games 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10. That’s versus CGY, VAN, PHX, MIN and DAL. If CGY’s pre-season was not an anomaly, then their first W might not come until G3. Do they steal another one or two on the short home stand? And look for them to be stronger on the first three of the G6-G10 road trip as the flights are relatively short and there is a day in between games. The G9 & G10 pair will be tough because it is at both CHI and DAL B2B – they will be up to play the Stanley Cup Champion but may be tired and ‘smelling the barn’ pulling into DAL. Five W’s in the first 10 would not be bad for this schedule. But they need to capitalize early as they have a tough scheduling row to hoe later in the season.

The San Jose Sharks

Last year? San Jose began last season tied with 2007/8 for their second worst start since the Lockout. You shouuld take this with a grain of salt, however, because they stand as one of only three teams in the NHL to have made it to the post-season every year since the Stoppage.

The Best? While all successful in terms of making a post-season appearance, 2008/9’s G10 start saw SJS wire-to-wire as an team OGA called Chasing Stanley.

G10 Average? The Sharks begin the season with a just-about-average two B2B pairings, including the Black-And-Blue Schedule starter against CBJ in Europe. They have a long 2.8:1 ratio to kick off G1-G5, but this is due in part to the six days they are off after game two with CBJ in Stockholm. The G6-G10 ratio of days-to-games is 2.4:1 including the at EDM and CGY B2B for G6 & G7.

What Should They Do This G10? Their success these past five years starts with the new season as they win on average by Games 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 and 10. This year, that’s versus CBJ (in Europe) ATL, COL, EDM, NJD and MIN. All of these and more are doable based on how the team looks on paper. The only unknown is which one – Niemi or Nittymaki – is the best netminder to start between the pipes.

Other, Post-Pre Season Notes

Atlanta Thrashers fans have to be a bit worried that their team went ‘Oh-Fer’ in the Win column in the pre-season. But take note that five losses, all by one goal, not necessarily with the season’s starting lineup, and while learning a new system usually means a little gelling needs to take place. Hopefully, practice before the opener against WSH will be all that is necessary to tune up.

The Calgary Flames’ perfect Pre-Season will not necessarily translate into the games that count, especially with the cornucopia of injured Centermen on the roster.

The Minnesota Wild’s play this pre-season is eerily reminiscent of last regular season’s first 10 games, while the Colorado Avalanche’s 2-5-0 record looks nothing like their beginnings in 2009/10.

The St. Louis Blues’ Pre-Season effort – especially on the Power Play – looks like the Central Division is in for some stiff competition this year.

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ play during their nine-game Pre-Season is the kind of effort they will have to pull off throughout the season to see games past the middle of April.

The Washington Capitals’ 5 – 1 record included only three games with Alexander Ovechkin in the lineup. Sidney Crosby only played in two of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ six. What happens when they both are in for as many of 82 as they can get done health-wise?

Summary

Here is a summary of the predictions for the Non-Trads’ at G10 which OGA will grade themselves upon as the teams get to that point:

Carolina – 5.5 to 6 W’s
Florida – 5 to 6 W’s
Tampa Bay – 4 to 6 W’s
Columbus – 4.5 W’s
Atlanta – 4.5 W’s
Nashville – 5 W’s
Dallas – 5 W’s
Phoenix – 5 W’s
Anaheim – 4.5 W’s
Los Angeles – 5 W’s
San Jose – 6 W’s

Also: Calgary will NOT be perfect at G10. Minnesota may very well start hard like last season. Colorado may not start as well as last year. Look for St. Louis and Toronto to improve. And it is like shooting a wounded duck, but count on Washington and Pittsburgh to be strong again this season.

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Priorities: Wade Redden and Cristobal Huet

2010-09-27T22:10:00.003-05:00

In the last few days, both the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks decided to rid themselves of an overpaid, underperforming player. The Rangers waived $6.5-million-dollar-man Wade Redden. Not surprisingly, none of the other 29 teams in the NHL wanted to take on his salary, so Redden is now in the AHL with the Hartford Wolf Pack/Connecticut Whale.

Meanwhile, in Chicago...the Blackhawks loaned goalie Cristobal Huet to HC Fribourg-Gotteron SA of the Swiss National League. The Hawks are still on the hook for Huet's $5.625mil salary for the next two years, but no word yet (that I can find, anyway) on how much the Swiss team will be kicking in.

From a team standpoint, both moves made sense: Get rid of an aging, expensive veteran to clear precious cap space. For either team to keep these players, other moves would've been necessary, and comparable, cheaper players were available.

Both the Redden and Huet situations have a troubling aspect, however: While both players are past their prime, both can still play at the NHL level. The only reason they were thrown overboard was because the salary cap-weight (cap hit) of their contracts was too much to bear.

As a Rangers fan, I've railed against Wade Redden and his terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad contract for the past two seasons. Last season, I was able to admit Redden was/is still a serviceable defenseman, but he's grossly overpaid. If he were making, say, $1-$1.5mil, I don't believe I'd have burned Redden in effigy nearly as often. More importantly, I'm sure he would still be a New York Ranger today, were his contract more in line with his abilities.

Cristobal Huet's case is similar. He can no longer be considered a reliable starting goalie (whether he ever could is debatable), but...if he were making $1.25mil, instead of $5.625mil, I'm sure most Blackhawks fans would rather see Huet in the backup role than Corey Crawford.

Obviously, team management deserves a fair share of blame for both situations...and I'm not just talking about Glen Sather and Dale Tallon: signing a free agent can be much like an auction, and both the Rangers and Blackhawks had to outbid other teams to "win" the players in question. Thus, other bidders (teams) contributed to inflating the players' perceived value.

Player agents also get a serving of blame. Obviously, it's an agents' job to get as much money for his client as he possibly can. As the agent gets a percentage of that money, he's got plenty of incentive to do his job to the best of his ability. By "doing their best", however, two agents contributed to the premature end of their clients' NHL careers. Since those agents will still be paid in full, why should they care which league their clients end up in?

Ultimately, the players themselves must also be held accountable, for they signed on the dotted line. At the time, I doubt either Redden or Huet realized they were ending their NHL careers by agreeing to those terrible contracts. I'll always wonder if either player thought to himself, "Wow - there's no way I'm worth that much money!"

To my knowledge, neither player offered to take a pay cut or to otherwise restructure his contract in order to remain in the NHL, so it seems clear Huet is content with his Cup ring, and Redden would rather be the highest-paid player in the AHL than to have a shot at Lord Stanley's Cup. They've chosen their respective paths. It's unfortunate - sad, even - to see two NHL careers ended not by retirement, but by greed.

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2010-11 Season Keys in Threes

2010-09-21T22:53:00.005-05:00

It's Hockey Time again, boys and girls! As we OGA Boys prepare for puck droppage on our third season of prescient prognostication, statistical analysis and semi-literate blogging, we're changing our focus somewhat: In 2010-11, we'll be concentrating more on the NHL's non-traditional market clubs. You see, Frozen Pill and Big Tex live in the Dallas area, while The Colonel currently resides in Louisiana (where the NHL "market" consists of...The Colonel's house), so we have a certain affinity for non-trad teams. Besides, they don't get no respect, and we love underdogs.

Though the majority of our blogging will be related to the non-traditionals, we reserve the right to opine on any team in the NHL, at any time, for any reason. For example:

Even though Dallas icon Mike Modano now skates for The Hated Red Wings, they're still just as Hated...and we'll always love ya, Mike, but we don't like you very much right now.

See that? A post about Detroit - a non-traditional market team. We just blogged it. And we'll do it again, as the need arises.

Also, our pride and joy, the PQC, will still be running for the entire NHL, and we'll still be calling all 30 teams IN or OUT of the playoffs as they earn those designations. So there's no need to worry, as things ain't changin' all that much around here.

With that in mind, we humbly offer our Three Keys to the 2010-11 Season for the non-traditional market teams:

Frozen Pill's Teams: Carolina, Dallas, Phoenix and San Jose

Carolina Hurricanes - For CAR, the first thing I am looking for is to see if Staal, Ruutu, LaRose and Ward can stay healthy for the whole season because they are key to a strong Hurricane team. With them healthy to start the season, I am then looking for six-to-seven wins in the team's first 10 games to erase the memory of last year's dreadful start. And finally, I am looking to sneak Brandon Sutter under everyone's nose in my fantasy hockey draft because I think he is going to be hot on the puck this season.

Dallas Stars - For the post-Modano, post-Turco, post-Lehtinen(?) Stars, there’s nowhere to go but up. THE key, without which all others are meaningless, is the health of goalie Kari Lehtonen. If Lehtonen can stay on the ice (and off IR), the Stars have a very good chance of reclaiming a spot in the postseason. Next, Dallas needs a bounce-back season from d-man Matt Niskanen, who slipped from 35 points in 08-09 to just 15 points last go-round. The Stars’ third key to success this campaign is, essentially, the first two keys. Dallas must cut their Goals Against dramatically. Consider this: In 09-10, the Stars scored more goals (237) than 9 of 16 playoff teams. Unfortunately, they allowed more goals (254) than any of the 16 playoff teams. If Dallas can shave 20-25 goals off last seasons’ total Goals Against, they’re back in the playoffs.

Phoenix Coyotes - And with PHX, I want to see if they can continue to dominate with that 6.5-wins-in-10-games average clip they produced last year that brought them into the playoffs. I also want to see a healthy Scotty Upshall who was averaging better than a point in three of every five games before last year's injury. And, I cannot help myself, I have to keep following @biznasty2point0 on my Twitter account.

San Jose Sharks - Let's be honest: These aren't the three keys to San Jose making the playoffs; these are the keys to the Sharks going deep in the playoffs. First and foremost, it's a simple equation: Niemi + Niittymaki must be > Nabokov. If not, well...as Simon and Garfunkel so eloquently put it, "Hello, Darkness, my old friend...". Next, the Sharks must fill Rob Blake's skates, either through current d-men stepping up or via trade. Last, they must shift their focus from defeating last seasons' champs to this seasons' primary threats - Vancouver and Los Angeles.

The Colonel's Teams: Anaheim, Atlanta and Tampa Bay

Anaheim Ducks - For ANA, I want to know what kind of defense we will truly have because I know it is a magnitude weaker without Scott Niedermayer. I also am highly interested to find out if Emerson Etem and Cam Fowler can make the cut this season or not because of their potential. And finally, no matter who is on the blueline, I am looking for about a .600 winning percentage.

Atlanta Thrashers - As far as the Atlanta Thrasherhawks go, I am interested to see the entire team just hit the ice because they seem to have improved on paper in order of magnitude over the off-season. Also, since ATL gives us a 'tell' into their season's end early on, I am interested how they fare in the two back-to-back pairs of vs WSH/at TBL and vs TBL/at WSH they face in their first 10 games. And finally, I am going to be watching and hoping they are healthy in mid-December as some OGA Staffers and their boys take a road trip to ATL on 18 December to see his old team bang on Kovalchuk, a.k.a., the $100M Man.

Tampa Bay Lightning - And finally, for TBL I begin with wanting to see them with 23-25 wins (in combination) by Game 40 because that may just see them set a playoff-making tempo. I am also highly intrigued with a report from Damien Cristodero stating the Lightning's #1 PP unit is Stamkos - Lecavalier - St. Louis with Gagne and Kubina on the points and what that might do on the scoreboard. And I also want to see this squad healthy just before Christmas as that road trip beginning in ATL includes trucking south to see the all-non-traditional matchup of CAR @ TBL on 20 December.

Big Tex's Teams: Florida, Los Angeles, Nashville and Columbus*

Florida Panthers - Along with the rest of the Southeast Division, the Panthers spent the summer working on “home improvements”. Florida’s future success now rests on the shoulders of one Dale Tallon, architect of the Chicago Blackhawks Cup-winning team. Rome (or in this case, Sunrise) wasn’t built in a day, but Tallon’s Panthers could compete for a playoff spot next spring, IF…David Booth can regain his pre-concussion form of two seasons ago…Rusty Olesz plays up to his $3.125mil cap hit (early word from camp is good)…and if the Cats can get off to a better start than the 2-7-1 debacle which derailed the 09-10 season before Halloween.

Los Angeles Kings - Ask for Kovalchuk, settle for…Ponikarovsky? Actually, from a numbers standpoint, Poni is a replacement for Frolov, not a Kovy consolation prize. I want to see if the Big Boy from Kiev will still be good for 20 goals, playing on the third line. Speaking of the third line, I wonder if Wayne Simmonds will build on last seasons’ success (78GP, 16-24-40, +22), or was his 5.5-point increase in shooting percentage over 2008-09 a fluke? Last, but not least, will the Kings take the Pacific Division Crown from San Jose? If Jonathan Quick gets more nights off and both Willie Mitchell and Justin Williams are at 100%, that’s a very real possibility.

Nashville Predators - For five of the last six seasons, the Nashvillians have made the playoffs. In 2009-10, they were the only team in the NHL to tally 100+ points without a positive goal differential (they were exactly even). The theme in Music City is “Win Small, Lose Small”, and the Predators accomplish this with stifling defense. Thus, the three keys to a Preds playoff push next April are: 1. Pekka Rinne AND his backup (a goalie to be named later). Rinne has to stay healthy, and Nashville must find a backup solid enough to allow their No.1 a few nights off. 2. Pivots: Matthew Lombardi must be a more effective/consistent top line center than Jason Arnott was last season, and Colin Wilson must provide the Predators a desperately-needed 2nd line scoring threat. 3. Patric Hornqvist must meet or exceed last seasons’ performance. If all the above comes to pass, Nashville could very well capture their first divisional title.

(Ed. Note: The Colonel says Columbus is too far north to be considered a "non-traditional" market. Big Tex says if any negative team news, whether on- or off-ice, causes Canadian journalists and fans to crank up the POSSIBLE RELOCATION ALERT!!! sirens, it's a non-traditional market. Frozen Pill is wisely silent on the issue.)

Columbus Blue Jackets - For the Jackets to return to the playoffs this season, three things must happen: First, the team must adapt quickly to new head coach Scott Arniel's up-tempo system. Next, goalie Steve Mason has to return to his Calder Trophy-winning form (he showed signs of doing so late last season). Finally, the enigmatic Nikita Filatov must live up to his potential, as doing so will provide Columbus with a franchise first: TWO legitimate scoring lines.

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The NHL Weekend Roadie: Singing the Blues

2010-09-11T09:24:00.004-05:00

In the first two installments of The NHL Weekend Roadie, we OGA Boys touted a four-games-in-three-days East Coast swing and a three-in-three West Coast walkabout. For the third weekend of the upcoming NHL season, OGA goes straight up the middle for two games in two days in The Gateway City, St. Louis.

The itinerary:

NHL Week Three (Friday, 22 OCT – Sunday, 24 OCT)

Friday, 22 OCT: Chicago @ St. Louis – The New and…Improved(?) Blackhawks make their first appearance of the season in Saint Loo on this night - the second meeting of the young season for these old Norris Division rivals (they play in Chicago on Monday, 18 OCT). Last season, the OGA Boys drove from Dallas to St. Louis for the Blues-Blackhawks game on 2 JAN, and it was well worth the trip. Blues fans are among the best in the league, and they really get fired up when the Hawks come to town. On this night, the house will be rockin’.

Saturday, 23 OCT: Pittsburgh @ St. Louis – Crosby, Malkin & Associates roll into town for an all-too-rare visit. I’m calling it right now: Blues’ Coach Davis Payne starts Ty Conklin against (one of) the goalie’s (five) former team(s), Cam Janssen goes at least two rounds against Eric Godard, and BJ Crombeen (6’2”, 210) drops the gloves with Mike Rupp (6’5”, 230) and battles him to an epic draw. Who wins the game? Who cares? It’s gonna be fun to watch.

Back-to-back games in the same city. What more could you ask for? Another Penguins game? Okay, fly into Nashville on Thursday, 21 OCT for Penguins @ Predators, then rent a car and drive the 309 miles to St. Louis in about five hours on Friday morning. On Sunday, it’s an easy drive back to Music City for your flight home.

HOTELS – Currently on Hotwire.com (where prices change all the time), a 3.5-star hotel room near the airport can be had for just $55/night on the weekend of 22-24 OCT, while 3.5 stars downtown (within walking distance of the Scottrade Center) will cost you $69/night. If money is no concern, skip Hotwire and stay just two blocks away from the arena at the Union Station Marriott for $169/night, or four blocks away at the Hyatt Regency at the Arch for $139/night. (NOTE: the OGA Boys booked the Hyatt Regency through Hotwire last January for $69/night)

FLIGHTS – Strategically located in Middle America, St. Louis is a short flight from most locales. Direct flights are available from 22 of 29 NHL cities. (Toronto is the only Canadian NHL city with direct service to St. Louis, while San Jose and Buffalo are the only American NHL cities without it.)

FOOD – There are at least two good reasons to eat at St. Louis’ Iron Barley: oak roasted pork tenderloin and schnitzel with spaetzle. Both entrees are Certified OGA Tested and Approved. This small, crowded-but-worth-the-wait restaurant won’t disappoint. On the other hand, if you have the opportunity to sample some authentic St. Louis-style pizza…PASS. Two main features distinguish St. Louis-style pizza from the rest of the pizza universe: a thin, cracker-like crust and Provel cheese. The thin crust is fine. Provel, on the other hand, is a blend of Provolone, Swiss and White Cheddar cheeses, the end result being a taste similar to Cheez Whiz, and a texture reminiscent of half-dried Elmer’s glue. If you’re one of those kids who ate glue back in grade school, it’s a trip down memory lane.

TICKETS – The Blues split their home games into five categories: Platinum, Gold, Silver, Bronze and Value. Single-game ticket pricing varies accordingly. Both games of this roadie fall into the Platinum category, so good lower-level seats will run a minimum of $65 plus additional facility charges, service charges, convenience fees, transaction fees, etc. (Thank you, Ticketmaster!) Said fees vary according to the base ticket price, but a $65 ducat will cost you $74.70, plus a transaction fee of roughly $2-$4 (and more, depending upon which method of delivery you choose). As of this writing, great seats are still available for both games.

GETTING AROUND – The Gateway City is easy to navigate by car, but the Metrolink light rail system is also quite hassle-free and runs from the airport to the Scottrade Center and beyond. Metrolink doesn’t run everywhere, though: Iron Barley, for example, is a cab or bus ride from the nearest train station.

The third NHL Weekend Roadie is an easy trip, perfect for those who don’t want to spend a sizable chunk of their time on the road. Two guaranteed-good games in two nights. Passionate, friendly fans. A great city with some great food (Provel-laced pizza aside). Time to make reservations, buy tickets and pack a bag, hockey fans.

Take me back to On Goal Analysis.

The 2010-11 Black And Blue Schedule – The Colonel

2010-09-08T11:42:00.002-05:00

‘B&B’ decidedly does NOT stand for Bed and Breakfast. Not when it comes to Hockey.

No, for those of us who like our Hockey hard-playin’ and rivalry-driven, the NHL has given us the real B&B, what I like to call the ‘Black and Blue Schedule.’

On many occasions, they have given us back-to-back, home-and-away games between clubs with nobody to focus team energy, effort and anger upon but the same team who last scored on you, put that vicious check on your forward in the corner, or taunted you no end. (Some times, Gary Bettman and the NHL Scheduler need a big hug, and this would be one of ‘em.)

My theory is that, due to the increased nature of competition against the same foe for a consecutive game, the following things will happen in Game 2 of the pairing:

1. The opposite team will win the game

2. The likelihood of the game going into OT / SO is higher

3. There will be more penalty minutes awarded

And the above will apply even more so when it is an intra-Divisional game.

Using these three simple measures, we will compare these contests against the above criteria throughout the season. Below are the matchups we are going to cover with emphasis on comparing Game 2 to Game 1 in relation to the above three criteria. (Intra-divisional matchups are in BOLD font!)

We are also interested in two matchups for the Dallas Stars where they face a foe back to back but their foe has a game in between (ANA 12 & 16 NOV & SJS 13 & 16 DEC). Same goes for STL 18 & 22 OCT against CHI. Who will have the higher intensity in Dallas’ Game 2?

And we are curious to see how the LAK’s fare when they have two sets of back-to-back games over a five-day time span – will there be any gas left in the tank at the end of that week? (With 26 DEC vs ANA; 27 DEC @ SJS; 29 DEC @ PHX; and 30 DEC vs PHI – what a rough way to bring on New Year’s…)

Which of the above would you like to go see? How about NYI vs NYR, NJD vs PHI, CHI vs NSH, EDM vs VAN, CHI vs DET, or LAK vs ANA?

Which ones are not there you’d like added next year? How about OTT vs MTL for Eastern Canadian bragging rights? Or some TOR vs DET or BUF for USA versus Canada action? More CGY vs EDM for the championship of Alberta? TBL vs FLA for an in-state rivalry which is going to do nothing but heat up between Dale talon and Steve Yzerman? And who from Texas can pass up a DAL vs DET pairing?

Regardless of your preference, if you are a Hockey fan clear the decks for action because we both kick off the season with three pairings in the NHL’s 2010 European Premier and close it out again with three more, intra-Divisional pairs.

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs.

If I Subscribed To Conspiracy Theories – The Colonel

2010-09-02T22:20:00.007-05:00

Two events that have unfolded/are unfolding in the NHL off season gives a fella pause.

Sometimes suffering through the doldrums of the summer Hockey off-season is a bit like being adrift out on the waters in your brand new C&C 131, waiting for a breeze to come along and pick up your sails.

So if you were otherwise bored, you could easily sit around and subscribe to Conspiracy Theories, like the Kovalchuk Ultimatum and Niemi, The Shark...

The Kovalchuk Ultimatum

According to NY Post writer Larry Brooks, the NHL has issued what I like to call “The Kovalchuk Ultimatum.” Within the article, it is claimed that the NHL will ‘grandfather’ all current contracts, but wants an alteration to the current CBA that limits the counting of any future contract money past age 40 and the dollars in any years after the first five in the Salary Cap. There is an apparent deadline of Friday, 3 September for a final answer on this issue.

But IF you got caught up in conspiracy theory, you might pause at a few spots along the path taken to this point with the following line of reasoning…

Lou Lamoriello needs a player like Kovalchuk to get his team over the first/second round hump in the playoffs, so…

Lou signs Kovalchuk to a deal making him a Devil for life, but…

He still needs to be able to sign Parise next year, so puts in the ‘back end switcheroo’ to lower the overall Cap Hit a lot and promptly gets the first contract contested and voided;

AND Management/Team Owners have had it out for players throughout the history of hockey…

Lou is old school, and even apparently said he doesn’t like the kind of long term deal he concluded with Kovalchuk;

But then promptly forwards another, very similar contract to the NHL who apparently rejects it, simultaneously providing an ultimatum for the NHLPA to ratify changes to the Salary Cap structure, effectively ending the ‘old backend switcheroo;’

THEREFORE, Lou was working with the NHL to undermine the contract process at the expense of players to end these anti-old school contracts, right?

Wrong.

There was no collusion to force an alteration of the CBA before its scheduled renegotiation that was plotted, planned and executed by Lou Lamoriello on behalf of all other owners, the NHL, and Gary “The Evil Empire” Bettman himself.

‘How can you be sure because my logic above makes perfect sense?’ you ask.

Maybe to a paranoid tabloid reader. You are correct that Lou and the Devils need a player like Kovalchuk to get them over the hump come the post season. And they need Kovy AND Parise. After that, your conspiracy theory begins to take on water.

You are absolutely right Lou Lamoriello, GM of the New Jersey Devils, is old school. To his credit, he is a measure of the vanishing breed of folks who are all in for something they feel is important – in this case, putting together a winning Hockey club. That is why if you listened to the press conference, you heard him say ‘the name on the back is never bigger than the logo on the front,’ and once the deal was done, the Devils no longer care about anything except fitting that player into a system that can win.

You are allowed to scratch your head over why Mr. Lamoriello submitted a second contract that was similar to the first one. Heck, I did for a minute. But in 26 years in the military, I have thought long and hard on some tough issues and rubbed most of the hair off of the top of my head, only to find out the correct answer was something much easier.

But rather than surmising a grand scheme to end the long contract in the NHL by hacking off Mr. Bettman, ruminate on this: it is human nature to take the path of least resistance.

In contract negotiations, your competing input and sources of friction are: the current CBA; the player’s wants; expressed through his agent; the team’s balanced needs for that player plus taking care of the rest of the team; the NHLPA to ensure a player’s rights under the CBA are protected; back to NHL management to approve the whole process; and an independent arbitrator if there is an appeal of a decision against the contract. Like 40-grit sandpaper quality friction, that all is. Meet the CBA’s requirements and you only have the player, his agent and the team actively engaged in the process and all of the rest only passively doing their part. Aaaaah… Less resistance. And curiously enough, something ‘old school,’ which their accompanying experience knows.

I will hand you a mask and snorkel now as the crew abandons your sinking, conspiratorial ship.

Niemi, The Shark

In your descent with The Kovalchuk Ultimatum, your timing couldn’t be better as now you enter shark-infested waters. That’s the waters of Niemi, The Shark.

In a fit of final protest as you dog paddle around, asking for some floaties, I hear you say, “Wait! Wait! What about Niemi to the Sharks.”

“Huh?” I stupidly ask.

Paddle. Paddle. Follow me on this:

The Sharks lose to the Blackhawks in the Conference Finals; dang it – it was their turn to go for The Cup, and they have to GET those guys so they can go onward and upward next season…

But star goaltender Evgeni Nabokov announces on 7 July he is leaving to play for SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL… Ruination!

‘Hey, wait a minute,’ they say – ‘There’s extreme Cap issues in The Windy City, so we can fix ourselves AND attack them at the weak point, all at the same time…’

So on 9 July, they send a rather large offer sheet for Niklas Hjalmarsson, which the ‘Hawks are goaded into matching on 12 July…

That contract for Hjalmarsson stalls pre-Arbitration talk with Stanley Cup winning goalie Antti Niemi who goes to arbitration on 29 July and is awarded less than $3M per year…

Which the Cap-strapped Blackhawks walk away from for a less-than-$2M-per-year contract with free agent Marty Turco, in turn…

Leaving Niemi to be signed by the Sharks on 2 September.

You see? Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet was a ruse to get Niemi under contract who will play for revenge against his old team, beat them, and put the Sharks in the Stanley Cup Finals next year.

Now throw me a line, haul me in and give me a towel, you unhelpful twit – it’s cold in the water…

Three things I say to this one. First off, had Chicago not matched Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet, the Sharks would have taken him and paid the contract because they likely saw him as a future replacement to Rob Blake.

Second, when you lose your star goalie, you need a replacement and Niemi was available.

And third, if they did pick up Niemi to spite the ‘Hawks after they walked away from that Arbitration award, good on ‘em. In case you haven’t really noticed the game, Hockey is combat in a cold place. And ‘All’s fair,’ they like to say.
So here, just hold this anchor I am handing you so you can go down with your theories to the cold depths of, well, you know. You strike me as the kind who watches a terrorist attack unfold against your own troops on CNN and provide running commentary on how the militants could have been successful.

Buh-Bye.

…Conspiracy theories…

…Not even mildly entertaining...

…Of course, they would be brilliant if San Jose could have seen all of the dominoes falling exactly that way. And Lou does remind you of a wily old fox, doesn’t he…

…Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh. COME ON, BREEZE! Just a little puff of air would be nice.
Just to nudge us through to mid-September….

Take me to On Goal Analysis

The Next CBA Simulation: What Did We Learn? – The Colonel

2010-09-02T12:24:00.005-05:00

In “The Next CBA: Part I,” a new construct for the NHL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement between Management/The League and Players was offered. It was not a complete CBA re-write because, knowing there are some good things in the current CBA, there are things that just do not need to be changed.

Instead, it addressed the one issue standing as potentially the most contentious in 2012. The Kovalchuk arbitration clearly indicates the NHL is out to close the loophole on circumvention of the intent of the Salary Cap. Assuming a formal fix for this issue would be present in any new agreement, the goal of 12,735 words plus 30 charts, in eight blogs over 10 days was to dissect what could be done in order to avert another Lockout over this particular issue.

As a construct to test new CBA changes, recommendations for changing current contract structuring were offered to address Cap circumvention. A ‘simulation’ of sorts then resulted by laying the current salary structure over the top of these changes.

Armed with that information, some conclusions can be drawn about negotiating the next CBA which are offered below. After quickly summarizing the recommended CBA changes, the blog continues to discuss where the bones of contention will arise.

The Proposed CBA

It is not a stretch to offer that the Salary Cap is THE main reason there is exciting parity in the NHL. So for the entertainment value that sells TV/cable/satellite and tickets and allows for growth of The Game, I say the Salary Cap must stay in any new agreement.

I equally stand behind my earlier statements: “…Sew up that loophole tightly, I say. But do it with the least amount of change possible….” That' because revolutionary change, like the current CBA was, is borne out of desperation, takes longer to digest and creates the kind of pause that causes, well, Lockouts. You cannot simply sit down and decide to make revolutionary change to the current agreement after The Cup is raised in 2012. There is simply not enough time over the summer to inform all parties, get in the votes and ratify a new agreement all sides will want to discuss and study in detail prior to signing. If you want a revolution, start now so it can be digested over the next two years.

Instead, the easier solution to get past everyone would be evolutionary change that still includes a Salary Cap while closing the loophole that circumvents the spirit of the Cap right now. Even that change will not be able to pass without compromise from all parties. To that end, the following main points of my proposed CBA were:

1. Maintain a Salary Cap Ceiling starting at $60M U.S. that increases by a modest amount each year

2. Maintain a Salary Cap floor that is never lower than $16M below the Ceiling

3. Every five years, review overall hockey receipts for tickets, merchandise and media monies from any NHL organization and induce a Five-Year Adjustment (FYA) to the base Cap figures

4. Allow for authorized, long-term contracts that can lower overall team Caps for three Franchise Contract Players (FCPs) per team

5. For players not designated FCPs that are under age 35, allow for one-to-three year contracts

6. For players not designated FPCs that are over age 35, allow for one year contracts

7. Set a ceiling for Non-FPC (NFC) contracts, a floor with League Minimum Contracts (LMCs) and a ceiling for Entry Level Contracts (ELCs), all with a predictable, annual salary increase.

8. At the end of FCP, NFC, LMC or ELC agreement, a player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)

9. To bridge the gap where current agreements surpass the restrictions on age or term limits, allow for a one-time, one-year exception followed by UFA status to bridge the gap

Regardless of whether or not these are the exact changes put in place, the ‘simulation’ of doing so team by team in the blogs of the last 11 days were illustrative of points of contention for any new CBA with the same desired end state. Taking the points above one at a time shows the discord.

Based On the Proposed Adjustments, What Did The Simulation Show Us?

Here are the pertinent stats from the analysis:

1. There was an average of 8.23 players per team needing contract adjustments:
a. The highest number was 15 players (CHI)
b. The lowest number was 3 players (WSH)

2. An average of 1.43 players lost 3.16 years of term per team:
a. The highest number of players was 5 (PHI)
b. The highest number of term years was 17 (CHI)
c. The lowest number of players was 0 (ANA, ATL, BUF, CAR, COL, CBJ, FLA, LAK, STL and TOR)
d. The highest number of term years was 0 (same as above)

3. Average amount of current contract money back to teams was $16.188M:
a. Most back was $84.966M (CHI)
b. Least back was -$477.5K (ANA)

One look here and at Larry Brooks’ NY Post column on NHL ‘givebacks’ to approve Kovalchuk’s contract, and you might draw a conclusion that a rudderless NHLPA is likely to sink, and sink fast here. The Lockout drumbeat and signal fires are a brewin,’ you might believe.

But in working through a potential, new CBA and its impact on salaries and the Cap, we learned a few things that if known up front, may make working through the process somewhat easier.

First and foremost is the fact that if you are a good enough player, somebody will find a way to sign you. Sounds simple and flippant, but it actually runs as an undercurrent to inflated free agency contracts and why some players continue to skate on into their 40’s. That fact will never disappear from the game no matter what the construct of contracts becomes.

Next is the point that if teams are going to sign 24 players, on average only 1/3 of contracts needs to be adjusted. Sure the Blackhawks had 15 to redo but, respectfully, they mortgaged themselves to the hilt in succeeding to win The Cup. There were still 17 other teams at, or below, the average number of affected players. So no matter how the new CBA is written, it is likely some current contracts will need to be adjusted.

The average number of redone contracts is weighted heavily against long-term, over 32-year-old players. They are established players with substantial salary. They are losing term based on NFC or LMC status and under 35-years-old limits of three years per contract, plus one-year terms for over-35 players. This is the vast majority of money coming back to clubs, but accounts for only about 10% of players. Renegotiated contracts which are likely in a new CBA will RELATIVELY put more money in teams’ pockets. And other-than entry level contracts from now through 2012 may carry too much term after the new CBA is approved.

But in my proposal, the loss of term equates to UFA status and the ability to bargain up to the NFC maximum starting at $5.75M plus bonuses. This is a contract price 90%+ of the NHL already rests under. And in this simulation, the payback was UFA status. If the League and Management get consensus for a similar restriction to term/Caps in place, they will likely do so only with a compromise on UFA status, the one ‘free’ thing they can give back to players.

Another significant hit on contracts that puts money back into the teams’ coffers is the only group that is truly screwed here. There were 23 players with Entry Level Contracts (ELCs) that the proposed structure indicated were overpaid, often in the millions of dollars. While only a handful of these players will still be under an ELC when 2012 gets here, if the ELC system is going to be cut back in total dollars allowed, it should be done now or all parties will need to determine how to grandfather any approved contracts in.

And based on Larry Brooks’ article in the Post, it looks like the NHL is moving RIGHT NOW to limit the counting of any FUTURE contract money past age 40 and the dollars in any years after the first five in the Salary Cap. This, if you want to call it an attack, strikes at Management who wants more than their cake for the sake of producing a winning team, and Players who are willing to sign that kind of agreement. It should be noted these restrictions will likely be a starting point for the next CBA’s negotiations.

And On Another Note…

A persistent burr under Players’ saddles is the subject of escrow money. While legalese is required in the current CBA, it is still difficult to read and sort through both Section 50.4 (d) (“Escrow Account,” “Escrow Percentage,” “Escrow Agent”) and Section 50.11 (Reconciliation and Distribution Procedures). It may not also be acceptable for salaries to increase or decrease based on a sliding scale driven by my proposal’s Five Year Assessment (FYA) review. But the question should be ‘Does the current Escrow system work, or can something else more palatable be done?’ Look at what we in the military like to call Second and Third Orders Of Effect (OOE):

Task: Take money from players throughout the year in case their total payroll is higher than the Players’ overall Players’ Share of Compensation

2nd OOE: Players lose available capital in their pocket on the assumption the league as a whole may make less profit

3rd OOE: Players are angered because they feel that they are being made to cough up money to ensure clubs break even or make a profit

While the 3rd OOE may very well not be true, the perception is put there because of the 2nd OOE. Though the overall intent was to have Players vested in the overall profitability of the League, it is highly likely the goal was not to make players down-right angry.

So if they are feeling ‘punished for a potential crime,’ ‘taxed without representation,’ or the like, perhaps another course of action could be taken. Perhaps the adjustment comes to all salaries the year following a review that indicates payroll was above the appropriate percentage of total revenues. Done in this manner, players can see where the shortage was and then pay their fair share.

No matter what the final system is, a different system will at least be explored and debated as players would like a replacement for the current escrow format.

And As A Whole…

The League needs to be ready to negotiate length of contract terms in the context of some adjustment to the Salary Cap system.

Management will be highly interested in the Cap and Escrow Systems as they affect operations and profitability each and every day.

The NHLPA needs a representative team that will keep them from being thrown under the bus in the negotiation process. Watching the Kovalchuk Ultimatum, I cannot help but hear the screeching tires and expelling air brake gas.

And none of these Salary Cap/Escrow issues are a simple, snap-your-fingers-and-it’s-fixed proposition. It takes a starting position which incorporates everyone’s minimally acceptable criteria for a solution, produces a new course of action, generates discussion and a vote, and goes back to the drawing board if all sides do not agree. For an inch-thick plus CBA, that is going to take a little time.

As for the whole lot of you out there, don’t forget the fan of the Great Game makes the whole wheel turn. (Fan-generated revenue produces Hockey Related Revenue which drives all other capabilities.) In short, gentlemen, start work NOW on an evolutionary CBA that closes the Salary Cap circumvention loophole so come the first week of October in 2012 we have Hockey.

Cause, durn it all, if the Mayan Long Calendar is correct, I, Fan, want my 20+ games before December 21, 2012 rolls around…

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I”

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II”

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to DET through MIN (U.1)

Take me to MTL through NYR

Take me to OTT through SJS

Take me to STL through WSH

The New CBA Effect: STL Through WSH – The Colonel

2010-08-29T15:41:00.010-05:00

Previously, I analyzed 25 teams’ current list of players’ contracts against the recommended model for the Next CBA. (See “The Next CBA: Part I”, “The Next CBA: Part II”, ANA through CGY (U.2), CAR through DAL (U.2), and DET through MIN (U.1), MTL Through NYR, and OTT Through SJS.)

Below is analysis of STL, TBL, TOR, VAN and WSH. This blog uses current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA on these teams. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

The End of the NHL

STL – The Blues have no players meeting FPC I, II or III status.

Alexander Steen and Jaroslav Halak both need a one-year exception on their contract due to term length to complete the agreement as signed. Cap change = $0

Cam Jansen, Matt D’Agostini and Tyson Strachan’s contracts do not meet the LMC floor so requires a raise for all three players. Cap change = $350K AAV and total

Alex Pietrangelo is well over, and T.J. Oshie is barely above, the ELC cap with bonuses, requiring a pay cut for both players. Cap change between the two is = -$1.871M AAV / -$5.608M total

The Blues are pretty squared away in terms of contract issues. They join nine of the first 26 teams in falling under the average with only seven contracts up for review. An AAV of -$1.315M / -$5.258M total further assists the ‘small market’ team, and no players lose any term over current contracts.

TBL – Vinny Lecavalier meets dollar requirements for FPC I status. No players meet FPC II or III status.

There are two ways to go with Lecavalier based on his age. One is to designate him the FPC I, pay the one-time bump up to the FPC I ceiling in a two-year, ‘normal’ term, seek a one-year exception, and release him to UFA status for the seven years thereafter. The other is to provide him the NFC Maximum with maximum bonus for three years plus the one year exception, and then release him to UFA status for the final six years of term. While the difference is only $221K in dollars, the additional year of term should suit the player and definitely suits the team. Cap difference (with lost term) = -$3.445M AAV with-$51.664M total

Mattias Ohlund turns 34 just before training camp this season. Due to his age, his term goes against the proposed CBA’s parameters. He can serve the next two years as written, seek a one-year exception in the 2012-13 season, and then becomes a UFA for the final three seasons of his current SPC. Cap difference (with lost term) = -$1.804M AAV with-$10.821M total

Martin St.Louis is 35 years old this season. He can serve this year’s last contract season and, with a one-year exception, the first year of the new one he just signed before he becomes a UFA. Cap difference (with lost term) = -$3.376M AAV with-$16.878M total

As an NFC contract holder, Ryan Malone can only begin the new CBA era with a three-year deal, plus seek one year’s exception. That would make him one year short of fulfilling the last year of his current agreement. Cap difference (with lost term) = -$900K AAV with-$4.5M total

Nate Thompson, Blair Jones, Chris Durno, Marc-Antoine Pouliot and Matt Smaby’s LMCs are below the minimum requirement. Cap difference (with lost term) = $700K AAV and total

Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos’ ELCs are above the maximum with bonuses. With Stamkos likely to be designated the club’s FPC II to start, the smart thing for him to do here is take a three-year term, after which he can assume the FPC I role from Lecavalier. It remains to be seen what Hedman’s post-ELC contract will be, but if he continues to progress and impress, it will be substantial. Combined Cap difference = -$4.667M AAV /-$6.881M total

The Lightning have to police up some of the contracts written by the previous owners group. Only one of the contracts that Steve Yzerman wrote would not meet the proposed CBA rules (Martin St.Louis’, and only because of the term with his age – it does not go against the current CBA at this time). There are 12 players affected for a total of -$89.257M. On the less attractive end of things, this team has four players that would lose a total of 13 years of term.

TOR – Dion Phaneuf meets criteria for FPC II and Jean-Sebastien Giguere meets requirements for FPC III. No players meet FPC I status.

Phaneuf can serve his current agreement in total with a one-year raise to FCP II maximum and a one-year exception. Cap difference = $50K AAV / $500K total

Mike Komisarek’s contract needs a one-year exception to stand as is. Cap difference = $0 AAV and total

Mike Brown and Matt Lashoff’s contracts are below the minimum requirement. Cap difference = $312.5K AAV and total

Tyler Bozak and Luke Schenn’s ELCs are over the ELC maximum with bonuses. Cap difference = -$2.452M AAV and total

The Maple Leafs have six players affected for a total of -$3.142M in salary pay back once all of the dust settles. And there are no hockey players to penalize with the loss of any term.

VAN – Daniel and Henrik Sedin both meet requirements for FPC II. No players meet conditions for FPC I or III.

The assumption here is the Sedins have to be packaged together and only one person each can be the FCP I, II or III. So if I am Vancouver, I seek to not award EITHER player an FCP contract in order to give them the longest term under contract – based on the fact they turn 32 this season, they could hold FCP status for only one year and then become UFAs. So, award both the NFC maximum this season, give them a one-year exception to carry them through age 35 and the current term of the SPC and provide them bonus money to make up the dollar difference between the two contracts. Cap difference = a net of $0

Robert Luongo’s contract as written would have to be renegotiated. Like the Sedins, he turns 32 this season, so could only hold an FPC contract for one season. So award him an NFC with matching bonus money to equal his current dollar figure for three years, get a one-year exception and then renegotiate in his UFA season. Cap difference = a net of -$3.404M AAV / -$40.85M

If they want to keep him at current term, the best course of action for Ryan Kesler is to make him the FPC III and pay him the one-year bump to the FPC III minimum. Cap difference = $167K AAV / $1M total

Dan Hamhuis could not serve his current SPC’s term, even as an FPC. While they could give their brand new defenseman a designation of NFC maximum for a good-will raise, this blog assumes maximum savings for teams in order to define total impact of change. So he is awarded an NFC contract for his current dollar figure through three years, receives a one-year exception, and loses two years to UFA status. Cap difference = -$1.5M AAV / -$9M total

Keith Ballard, the Canucks’ other new defenseman, is in the same boat as Hamhuis, but with one less year of term. Cap difference = -$840K AAV / -$4.2M total

Tanner Glass, Rick Rypien, and Joel Perrault’s LMC’s do not meet the dollar floor, so all need a raise. Cap difference = $167K AAV / $1M total

The Canucks have nine affected players for a total Cap difference of -$52.825M. The big dollar loss comes at the expense of three players (Luongo, Hamhuis and Ballard) losing term over the current SPC with contracts all in the $4.5 – 5.333M range. Other adjustments are minor in nature.

WSH – Alex Ovechkin meets the FPC I standard, and Nicklas Backstrom meets FPC II standards. No player meets the FPC III standard.

Ovechkin, being 25 at the start of training camp this season, is just about what the FPC designations were made for. He receives a one year raise to the FPC I Ceiling, can make eight years as contracted plus receive a one-year extension, and then loses two years of term to UFA status from 2019-2020 through 2020-2021. Cap difference (with lost term) = -$1.62M AAV / -$17.815M total

Backstrom, as the FPC II, can fulfill his current contract with the one-time raise to the FPC II maximum and a one-time extension. Cap difference = $50K AAV / $500K total

D.J. King’s salary is just under the LMC minimum and requires a raise. Cap difference = $75K AAV / $150K total

Capitals’ fans, that’s it. Three players affected, one of them with two years of lost term, and a total Cap difference of -$17.165M. The total dollars seem high, but the vast majority of it is for Years 12 & 13 of a $9M-per-year-plus annual contract for Ovechkin.

Summary

The Capitals hold the best circumstances of any other team under this new CBA with only three players requiring adjustments. And while the dollar figure ranks them at the ninth highest dollar return, practically all of it is the last two years of Ovechkin’s contract which can be made up with a UFA signing.

The Maple Leafs are next with only six affected players, the least amount of Cap give back and no lost term for any player. This follows Brian Burke’s re-tooling philosophy – smaller term equals less hassle. Toronto will know when to give an FCP beyond their Captain.

They are followed by the Blues who are just under the average number of player adjustments with seven and a just-about-average AAV.

Out of the northwest come the Canucks next with nine affected players and more than $50M in returned Cap dollars. The eight years of lost term for Roberto Luongo at greater than $5.3M is most of the reason why.

And finally, the Lightning will be forced to adjust 12 contracts and correct several of the contracts made under the last ownership regime.

Final NHL averages are: 8.23 players affected per team; for an average team payroll difference from current numbers of -$16.188M; and with 1.43 players losing 3.16 years of term.

This series will wrap up with an overall assessment of how this proposed CBA’s changes would affect what is currently on the books, both in terms of if this season were 2012-13 and actually where we would be going into 2012 based on current contracts. It will also have some discussion on future thoughts for actually crafting changes.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I”

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II”

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to DET through MIN (U.1)

Take me to MTL through NYR

Take me to OTT Through SJS

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs…

The New CBA Effect: OTT Through SJS – The Colonel

2010-08-28T11:00:00.008-05:00

Previously, I analyzed 20 teams’ current list of players’ contracts against the recommended model for the Next CBA. (See “The Next CBA: Part I”, “The Next CBA: Part II”, ANA through CGY, CAR through DAL, DET through MIN, and MTL Through NYR.)

Below is analysis of OTT, PHI, PHX, PIT and SJS. This blog uses current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA on these teams. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Onward Through Teams 20 - 25 of the NHL
OTT – Jason Spezza meets the requirement for the team’s FPC II. No other players meet monetary requirements for FPC I or III.

As the FPC II, Spezza will turn 32 at the end of his current, final contract year and only needs a pone year raise to the FPC II ceiling. Cap change = $40K AAV / $200K total

Milan Michalek needs a one-year exception to complete his agreement as written. Cap change = $0

Were the proposed CBA going into affect today, Sergei Gonchar – due to age – could serve one year as written, seek a one-year exception, and then would have to be released in the final year of his contract as a UFA. Cap change = -$1.833M AAV / -$5.5M total

Daniel Alfredsson is in the same boat as Gonchar. Cap change = -$1.833M AAV / -$5.5M total

Ryan Shannon and David Hale’s contracts do not meet the LMC floor and require a raise. Cap change = $100K AAV and total

And Erik Karlsson’s ELC is above the ELC maximum with bonuses and needs downward adjustment. Cap change = -$14.5K AAV / -$29K total

The Senators have a bit under average with only seven players’ contracts requiring adjustment. The overall Cap difference is -$2.021M AAV / -$10.104M total, with two players (Gonchar and Alfredsson) losing a total of two years of term

PHI – Daniel Briere and Kimmo Timonen meet the monetary requirements to both be FPC IIs. No other player meets requirements for FPC I or III.

BUT, Briere will be 33 at the start of the season so cannot be designated as an FPC. The best course of action here is to rework his contract to an NFC maximum with bonus money for three years, seek the one-year exception, and then release him as a UFA in the final year of the current term. Cap change is a -$1.625M AAV / total loss of -$6.5M. The Flyers are well within the rules to pay him the maximum in bonus monies to attempt to make up for the loss of one year’s salary. But the maximum under the rules would be approximately $2.7M short, and it is, in effect, the team paying for a year not yet played with the player not be under contract. Business-wise, it does not make sense to do more than adjust for current annual salary and NFC maximum.

Timonen is similar to Briere. He will be 36 before season’s end, so no FPC status can be granted. He also can only get one year normally, a one-year exception, and then loses one year of term. Cap change is at a -$2.111M AAV / total loss of -$6.333M with two years’ bonus money thrown in

To maintain as close to the norm of current contracts as possible, Mike Richards needs to be designated the team’s FPC III. At age 26 this season, it would give him a one-time bump to the FPC III Ceiling, plus the ability to play eight years normally, one year with an exception and a loss of the final two years of term to UFA status. Cap change is $27.8K AAV and a net loss of -$11.25M for two lost years of term

Chris Pronger will be 36 at the opening of this season so is not eligible for FPC status. He could serve one year plus a one-year extension at the NFC Maximum, and then would be released to UFA status for the final five years of his contract. While on contract for two years, his Cap change =$841K AAV / $1.682M total. Overall for lost contract years, however, he is facing -$2.084M AAV / -$22.925M total

Due to age, Ian Laperriere needs a one-year exception to serve out his current term. Cap change = $0

Jody Shelley, age 35 at mid-season this year, has similar circumstances to Timonen and would lose one year to UFA status. Cap change = -$367K AAV / -$1.1M total

Oskars Bartulis’ contract is below the LMC figure, requiring a raise. Cap change =$125K AAV / $375K total

James Van Riemsdyk’s ELC is greater than the maximum with bonuses. Cap change = -$369K AAV and a total of -$738K

The Flyers just about hit the average issues mark with eight contracts under contention per the proposed CBA. Total dollar difference is a staggering -$4.407M AAV / -$48.471M total, placing them second in overall dollars to CHI so far. They also have one more player losing term than CHI at five (the most for any one team), but less total term than the ‘Hawks at 10 years.

PHX – Ed Jovanovski meets FPC II status in terms of dollars. No other player meets FPC I or III status.

Jovanovski’s one-year term requires a bump up to the FPC II maximum. Cap change = $700K AAV and total

Derek Morris at age 32 this season, can serve one year as is plus a one-year exception and then loses two years of current SPC term. Cap change = -$1.375M AAV / -$5.5M total

At age 39 before season’s end, Ray Whitney, and age 38, Adrian Aucoin, both need a one-year exception to fulfill his current contract. Cap change = $0 AAV and total
David Schlemko does not meet the LMC minimum, so requires a raise in pay. Cap change = $175K AAV / $525K total

As you might expect from ‘The NHL’s Team’ and the hard work of Don Maloney, there are not a lot of issues in the desert. Under the average, they have only five players with issues to solve. The total Cap difference is -$1.069M AAV / -$4.275M total, something a cash-starved team can use. And one player (Derek Morris) loses two years of term per the new CBA’s rules.

PIT – Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby both meet requirements for FPC I status. No players meet FPC II or III status.

There is probably little doubt when only one player can be the FPC I that Crosby would be it. Cap change = $700K AAV / $2.1M total

That would make Malkin the FPC II. Under the assumption they would want the dollar figures to remain the same, they can easily solve this with bonus money. Net Cap change = $0 over term

I would recommend Marc-Andre Fleury be designated as the FPC III to allow him to serve out his full contractual term as currently signed. He would get a one-time increase to the FPC III maximum as the only change to his current status. Cap change = $200K AAV / $1M total

Paul Martin can serve three years of his current contract normally plus seek a one-year exception. But he would lose one year of term to UFA status due to overall contract length. Cap change = -$1M AAV / -$5M total

Zbynek Michalek’s situation is just like Martin’s. Cap change = -$800K AAV / -$4M total

Brooks Orpik and Kristopher Letang both need a one-year exception to finish out their contract term. Cap change = $0

Ben Lovejoy, Brent Johnson and Craig Adams are all paid under the LMC floor and are due a raise. Cap change = $462.5K AAV / $975K total

The 10 players’ contracts to fix put the Penguins a bit above the average. But -$985K AAV / -$4.925M total makes the midnight oil burning worth it to management. Two players (brand new Pens Martin and Michalek) each lose one year of term in the transition.

SJS – In terms of dollars, the Sharks currently have Danny Heatley at FPC I status and Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Dan Boyle at FPC II status. No player is at FPC III status.

Despite turning 30 years old at mid-season, Heatley can still complete his contracted term as the FPC I with a one-year exception and the one-time FPC I Ceiling raise. Cap change = $825K AAV / $3.3M total

Thornton will only be 31 throughout the season. The question is with a one-year deal, do the Sharks want to make him the FPC II? For the purposes of this analysis, I would say no, they do not, lower him to the NFC maximum, and clean up the money with a bonus. Cap change = $0 AAV and total with a bonus to make up the difference

Marleau, the closest to the FPC II marker, gets the FPC II designation. However, he turns 31 before the season starts, so can only serve two of the four years normally, gets a one-year FPC II raise, and receives a one-year exception before being released to UFA status. Cap change = -$1.65M AAV / -$6.6M total

And Boyle, though money-wise does it, is already 34 so does not qualify to receive FPC status. With a current, four-year term, he can play two years at the NFC Maximum with bonus money to equal out the dollars, get a one-year exception for year three, but will become a UFA in the final season. The actual Cap change = -$1.667M AAV / -$6.667M total when bonus are factored in over term

Joe Pavelski needs a one-year exception to carry his current contract as is. Cap change = $0 AAV and total

Cameron MacIntyre, Jamal Mayers, Jason Demers, Jay Leich and Thomas Greiss all have contracts under the LMC floor and require raises. Cap change = $0 AAV and total

And the Sharks go higher than the average with 10 contractual issues, not the least of which is four players meeting FPC status-money. Total Cap change in San Jose is -$2.284M AAV / -$1.935M overall. Two players (Marleau and Boyle) would lose one year each of contract term based on length of current contracts.

Summary

The Coyotes have the least woes in this group as five player contracts under contention with the proposed CBA yield only about one-third of the average Cap change in favor of the team. They also have one player losing two years’ term.

The Senators are just under the average with seven contract issues and are just about average in terms of Cap difference dollars. OTT is right in line with PIT and SJS from this group with two players losing one each term year off of the current agreement.

The Flyers only have eight players’ contracts at issue with the CBA. But I am tempted to say they have the most challenges as five of the eight players (Briere, Timonen, Richards, Pronger and Shelley) lose a total of 10 years’ term that was put in place to meet the current CBA’s requirements.

The Penguins carry 10 players with issues. To make Malkin’s dollar issue go away, he was re-designated the FPC II with accompanying bonuses to make up the deficit from his current salary. And Martin and Michalek who just joined the team would not be eligible for the full four years of their term – even with an exception – due to age. So the two each lose one year of term to UFA status.

And finally, the Sharks, despite too much money in four players, come out with 10 total contractual issues and only lose one year of term each for Marleau and Boyle. Some bonus money had to be paid to Thornton and Boyle while under contract, but the average loss per player compared to the rest of this group only place them at #3 out of five.

Through 25 of the NHL’s 30 teams, the averages are: 8.4 players affected per team (slight down-tick from the last report); for an average team payroll difference of -$12.573M (up from 1 – 20 numbers); and with 1.4 players losing 2.76 years of term (both up slightly from the last post). The last five teams are before us, and then we will look at an overall assessment of the entire League with comments on where to go reference the circumvention loophole.
The next five teams up for analysis will be STL, TBL, TOR, VAN and WSH.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I”

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II”

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to DET through MIN (U.1)

Take me to MTL through NYR

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs…

The New CBA Effect: MTL Through NYR – The Colonel

2010-08-26T15:36:00.008-05:00

Previously, I analyzed 15 teams’ current list of players’ contracts against the recommended model for the Next CBA. (See “The Next CBA: Part I”, “The Next CBA: Part II”, ANA through CGY (U.2), CAR through DAL (U.2), and DET through MIN (U.1).)

Below is analysis of MTL, NSH, NJD, NYI and NYR. This blog uses current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA on these teams. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Onward Through Two-Thirds of the NHL

MTL – Scott Gomez’s salary meets the FCP I standard and Mike Cammalleri’s AAV equals FCP III status. There are no players meeting FCP II criteria.

The only problem is Gomez turns 31 early this season and has three additional years left on term. Designated as the FCP I under this CBA, he will see a raise of $3.44M in one year of his contract, require a one-year exception, and lose one year of term to UFA status. Cap change = $1.148M AAV / $3.443 total while playing but a total of -$3.914M due to one lost term season

If designated as the FCP II – not FCP III, Cammalleri’s contract is good as written with a one-year salary increase to the FCP II maximum. Cap change = $300K AAV / $1.2M total

Cammalleri should be the FCP II so Tomas Plekanec can be designated the FCP III as most advantageous to the team’s monetary bottom line. Based on his age, he could serve all but the final year normally, receive a one-year raise to the FCP III maximum of $6M, and then get a one-year exception in his contract’s final season. Cap change = $200K AAV / $1M total

Brian Gionta turns 32 at mid-season with three seasons following, and Jaroslav Spacek turns 37 with one more tacked on. If they are both granted the one-year exception, their contracts complete as written. Cap change = $0

Dustin Boyd, Mathieu Darche, Tom Pyatt and Alexandre Picard do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change = $550K AAV and total

Montreal is facing nine players’ contractual adjustments with a - $1.164M total change to payroll. One player (Gomez) loses one year of contract term in the transition.

NSH – No current team players equal FCP I, II or III status.

Martin Erat is 28 years old this season with four additional seasons on term. As an NFC, he can hold a three-year contract, be granted a one-year exception and then must go UFA in his last contract year. Cap change = -$900K AAV / -$4.5M total

David Legwand needs a one-year exception for term plus age and Francis Bouillon needs a one-year exception for age to retain their current contracts as is. Cap change = $0

Jonas Andersson, Wade Belak, Cal O’Reilly and Sergei Kostitsin do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change = $437.5K AAV and in total

Colin Wilson’s ELC pays him over the maximum plus bonuses. Cap change = -$439.5K AAV / -$879K total

So the Predators face a relatively mild amount of correction in their ranks with eight players under review for a total change of -$988K AAV / -$4.942M total. The Predators lose one player for one term season as a UFA.

NJD – Patrick Elias meets FCP III status. No other players meet FCP I or II status at this time.

Elias turns 35 prior to the end of this season. With a one-year exception, he still loses one year of term. Cap change = -$2M AAV /-$6M total

If not designated as an FCP, Anton Volchenkov’s age and term catch up to him. He turns 29 in mid-season this year with five years following. He can play three years of the current agreement straight-up, plus one year as an exception, and then loses two term years to UFA status. Cap change = -$708.3K AAV / -$4.25M total

Brian Rolston will be 38, Colin White will be 32, and Bryce Salavador will be 35 at mid-season with an additional year on term. Henrik Tallinder turns 32 at mid-season with three additional seasons on contract. And Martin Brodeur turns 39 at season’s end. All will need a one-year exception to continue their contracts as written. Cap change = $0

Rod Pelly, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, Anssi Salmela and Mark Fraser do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change = $704.2K AAV / $987.5K total

The signing of Ilya Kovalchuk and extensions for Zach Parise and Jamie Langenbrunner notwithstanding, the Devils have a bit of correction to make for 11 players under the proposed CBA. The total change for new CBA contract adjustments is -$1.544M AAV / -$9.263M total from 2010-11 through 2015-16. They also have two players (Elias and Volchenkov) with two total years of lost term.

NYI – There are no players that meet FCP I, II or III status.

Rick DiPietro turns 29 before the season starts and has a following 10 years of term thereafter. With the one-year exception, he still loses six years of term to UFA status. Cap change = -$2.455M AAV / total of -$27M

Andrew MacDonald, as an NFC, needs a one-year exception to complete his current contracts. Cap change = $0

John Tavares, Josh Bailey and Kyle Okposo, three cornerstones for the future of the Islanders, are all overpaid on their ELC. Cap change with maximum bonuses is -$3.315M AAV / -$5.78M total

The Islanders have five players affected under the proposed CBA. The total Cap change is -$2.98M AAV / -$32.78M total spread out from this season though 2020-21. The club also has DiPietro losing six years of contract term based on new CBA contract definitions

NYR – The Rangers have several issues here, dollar-wise. Marian Gaborik meets the criteria for designation as the team’s FCP I. But Chris Drury, Henrik Lundqvist and Wade Redden all meet criteria for FCP II’s, and no player meets the mark as the team’s FCP I.

As the FCP I, Gaborik is set – he reaches age 32 in the last season of his current contract. The team also has to pay him on any one of the seasons in his current agreement at the FCP I maximum of $10.8M. Cap change = $825K AAV/$3.3M total

Drury is age 34 this year with one additional season remaining. With only one year left on his contract at age 35, he is able to serve out the time with a one-year exception. But he would have to serve at the NFC maximum, and could receive bonus money to make up the difference from his current contract’s salary. Cap change = -$1.288M AAV / $0 total with bonuses to compensate

Henrik Lundqvist is most likely to be designated the team’s FCP II. With that designation, the only change to his current contract is a one-year bump to the FCP II maximum. Cap change = $81.3K AAV/$325K total

Wade Redden cannot be designated as an FCP II based on his current age of 33, turning 34 at season’s end this year. Under proposed CBA language, he can serve two years as is on term, seek a one-year exception and then spend his last contract year as a UFA. Cap change = -$2.167M AAV/-$6.5M total

Derek Boogaard’s current contract can remain intact with a one-year exception. Cap change = $0

Brain Boyle’s LMC is below the minimum, so he is due a raise in 2010-11. Cap change = $165K

Mats Zuccarello-Aasen is overpaid on his ELC. This player’s Cap change = -$465K AAV/-$929K total

If you are a Ranger fan, that wasn’t as painful as you thought it would be, was it? Sure you might have wanted to see someone other than Redden as an early UFA. But ‘it is what it is.’ The total count is seven contracts needing adjustment. With the bonus money to Drry to honor his current dollar figure, the Cap change = -$91K AAV/-$3.693M total. NYR also has one player (Redden) with a total of one years of lost term.

Summary

The team in best shape here are the Islanders with five players’ contracts requiring a fix on a new CBA. The Islanders have DiPietro losing six years of term, and three ELC’s will lose millions of dollars above the ELC maximum, leaving an overall Cap change of almost $33M.

Next best is the Ranger’s surprisingly minor seven players’ contract adjustments. They are 3-1-3 in terms of dollar gains, no change and losses for players. Overall, the losing side is greater with a -$91K AAV / and a total of -$3.693M. Only Wade Redden loses a year of term from the team.

The Predators are in the middle of this pack with eight affected players. They stand at just under -$1M AAV / just under -$5M total in contract adjustment dollars. And one player loses one year of current term.

The Canadiens have one more player with contract review requirements than NSH. But their AAV is only a -$194K with a -$1.164M total contract difference. Scott Gomez is their lone term loser for one season, but his numbers are partially offset by his designation as the team’s FCP I.

And finally, without Kovalchuk under contract, the Devils sit with 11 players requiring changes, an increase in Cap Space of almost -$9.263M total, and two players losing two total years’ term.

Through 2/3 of the NHL, the averages are: 8.5 players affected per team (slight up-tick from the half-way point); for an average team payroll difference of -$11.87M; and with 1.15 players losing 2.55 years of term. Closing the circumvention loophole at the half-way point in NHL team analysis indicates all teams have contractual work to do (great, more lawyers…), that practically every team will save money by shaving off contract term, and that the players taking it most on the chin are teams’ most talented veterans and rookies. In return, there is more UFA time for more players in the league.

But we will keep our eye on the numbers as we complete the last 10 teams’ analysis.

The next five teams up for analysis will be OTT, PHI, PHX, PIT and SJS.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I”

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II”

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to DET through MIN (U.1)

The New CBA Effect: DET Through MIN (U.1) – The Colonel

2010-08-24T12:37:00.004-05:00

This blog has been updated with new financials and charts

Previously, I analyzed 10 teams’ current list of players’ contracts against the recommended model for the Next CBA. (See “The Next CBA: Part I”, “The Next CBA: Part II”, ANA through CGY, and CAR through DAL.)

Below is analysis of DET, EDM, FLA, LAK and MIN. This blog uses current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA on these teams. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Teams 11 – 15 In NHL Alphabetical Order

DET – Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg all meet FCP II status, and Brian Rafalski meets FCP III status in contract salary terms. No player meets FCP I status.

Henrik Zetterberg is problematic. At age 30 on opening night weekend this season, he has 10 contract years following. He gets most from his current term if he is designated an NFC, retains his current contract with a one-year exception through 2016-17, and then becomes a UFA. The team would, of course, make up the difference from current salary with bonus money. This gives Zetterberg an AAV of -$259K / $0 total dollar difference due to bonuses awarded while playing and a -$6.083M Cap AAV and -$26.142M total over the final four years of his current contract

Pavel Datsyuk is now age 32 with four years remaining on his contract. He cannot be an FCP based on the age restriction, but is eligible for a three-year contract with a one-year exception if sought and granted. His salary is an FCP II’s, which would have to be lowered from $6.7M AAV to no more than $5.788M AAV, the average of four years at the NFC maximum. The $3.65M he would be losing in contract money could be made up in bonuses of $912.5K per season which is under the 34% bonus ceiling. Cap change = -$912.5K AAV but $0 total while still under contract due to bonuses

Brian Rafalski turns 37 years old this season with one additional year on his contract thereafter. No player over age 35 can get more than a one year contract at a time. If the language is placed into the new CBA and DET secures the one-year exception, they can maintain Rafalski under his current term. They would have to lower his salary/AAV to the NFC maximum of no more than $5.75M in 2010-11 and $5.775M in 2011-12. But they could round that back up to his $6M per year with $250K and $225K in bonuses respectively with a lowering of his AAV but a wash to the Cap Hit. Cap change =$0

Nicklas Lidstrom should also be easy to handle. He will be 41 before the end of this season’s playoffs, and only has a one-year contract. The issue is that it is over the NFC maximum of $5.75M. Again, to honor the contract, they could simple pay the NFC max and award him a $450K bonus. His AAV drops, but the Cap change=$0

Johan Franzen is a combination of Zetterberg and Datsyuk. This season he will be 31 years old with the best combination of term and dollars for the club to seek approval to make him an NFC maximum with a one-year exception. This will give him a normal contract through 2015-16. After that period, he becomes a 36-year old UFA with four lost term years. While playing under contract, his AAV and total Cap change = $0. In the final four, lost term years, however, he loses -$3.955M AAV / -$15.818M total.

Todd Bertuzzi and Thomas Holmstrom would both need to receive a one-year exception to maintain their current contracts as he will be 36 and 38-years old respectively this season. Cap change =$0

Drew Miller and Derek Meetch require a pay raise to the LMC floor of $700K each this season. Cap change =$250K

A combination of player age and long term contracts designed to lower AAVs take some of the wind out of the Red Wings’ sails here. Nine players need contract attention for a total Cap change of -$41.66M. Two players also lose a total of eight years’ worth of term.

EDM – There are no players meeting FCP I, II or III status.

Shawn Horcoff turns 32 years old this season with an additional four seasons of term following. He cannot be an FCP, but can be awarded an NFC with one-year exception, losing the last season of his current term. Cap change = -$5.5M in 2014-15
Sheldon Souray turns 35 after the season concludes and retains one year on his contract. The club could seek a one-year exception to maintain his contract’s terms as an NFC. Cap change = $0

Nikolai Khabibulin turns 38 this season with two additional years on contract. The team could seek a one-year exception for him and release him to UFA status in his third year. Cap change is -$3.75M

Jean-Francois Jacques and Steve MacIntyre need their salaries increased to meet the LMC standard. Cap change = $285K

Taylor Hall’s current ELC, like Tyler Seguin’s, is for too much money over the term. Cap change = -$2.477M in 2010-11, -$2.452M in 2011-12 and -$2.427M in 2012-13 (or a total of -$7.356M)

The same goes for Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson who is less over the ELC ceiling than Hall. Cap change = -$252K in 2010-11, -$227K in 2011-12 and -$202K in 2012-13 (or a total of -$681K)

The number of Oilers’ issues are not overwhelming at seven players requiring contractual re-working. But due to age and high ELCs, they are looking at a Cap change of -$17.002M and two players with a total of two lost seasons of term.

FLA – There are no players meeting FCP I, II or III status.

If his term is important to them, the Panthers would need to designate David Booth as their FCP III, increase his salary one season to the FCP III Ceiling, and keep him signed for five years. Cap change = $350K.

Rostislav Olesz turns 25 at the season’s onset with three additional years of term following. The team needs to secure an NFC plus one-year exception for him and his current contract can be honored as is. Cap change = $0

Steven Reinprecht turns 35 before season’s end and retains an additional year on his current contract. With an NFC plus one-year exemption granted, he can finish the current agreement as signed. Cap change = $0

Byron Bitz, Jason Garrison and Nathan Paetsch all make under the LMC floor of $700K so would need a raise in 2010-11. Cap change = $212.5K

Michael Frolik, Dmitri Kulikov and Keaton Ellerby’s ELCs with maximum bonus is just over the authorized Cap hit. Cap changes = -$81K in 2010-11 and -$27K in 2011-12 for a total of -$108K

The Panthers have more personnel to adjust (at nine) than EDM, and with more outgoing dollars. Total Cap change is $1.905M, the second least amount behind ANA for any team to have to be prepared to pay out and a welcome respite for Dale Tallon coming over from the Blackhawks. They also have no lost contract term amongst their players.

LAK – Anze Kopitar and Ryan Smyth both meet FCP II status in terms of dollars. No other player meets FCP I or III status.

Kopitar is 23 this season with an additional five seasons on contract following. All the Kings need to do is increase his salary one season to the FCP II Ceiling. Cap change = $67K AAV / $400K total

Ryan Smyth turns 35 this season and has one additional year on contract. Due to age, he cannot be an FCP. The best option here is for the team to designate him an NFC, seek a one-year extension and make up the contractual difference in bonus money. Cap change = -$487.5K AAv but total dollar change of $0 due to bonuses

Dustin Brown turns 26 and Matt Greene turns 28 this season, and both retain an additional three seasons of term on contract. The team should designate them as NFCs and secure one-year exceptions so they can finish out their contracts as written. Cap change = $0

Davis Drewiske, Richard Clune and Peter Harrold do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change is $125K AAV / $592K total

Drew Doughty’s contract is above the new CBA’s ELC ceiling, so the maximum he could make is $1.273M with bonuses – the team will have to make up for it at his 2011-12 contract negotiation. Cap change = AAV and total of -$2.202M

The Kings are in decent shape with the average of eight players’ contracts requiring attention. The total Cap change = -$1.211M with no lost contract term for any player.

MIN – Beginning in 2011-12, Mikko Koivu meets FCP II standards and Niklas Backstrom meets FCP III status. There are no players meeting FCP I status.

Koivu’s brand new contract cannot pass the new CBA test without alteration. He will be 29 years old next season with an additional seven years to do on his new contract. As an FCP II, he can go through the 2015-16 season as is to age 32, the team request a one-year exemption for 2015-16, be paid one season at the FCP II ceiling, and he will lose two year of term as a UFA in 2017-18. Cap change =$90K AAV / $450K total increased salary over the term for playing and a total of -$13.05M to include the two years’ term lost to the new CBA.

Backstrom cannot be designated the FCP III despite his salary because he is currently 32 and turns 33 mid-season. He would have to receive an NFC through the three remaining seasons on his contract with an additional $250K in bonus money per year to make his current contract dollars a wash. Cap change = $0 AAV and total while under contract due to bonus money paid and -$6M AAV/total for year of lost term

Martin Havlat turns 30 before season’s end and has an additional four years of term remaining on his contract. He can be retained through 2012-13 as is, seek a one-year exception in 2013-14, and release him as a UFA in 2014-15. Cap change = $0 AAV and total while under term and -$5M in 2014-15 when one year is lost from contract

Matt Cullen turns 34 early in the season, and Marek Zidlicky at mid-season, both with two additional years of term remaining on contract. The team could retain both through 2011-12 as is, and seek a one-year exception in 2012-13 so they can finish out their contracts as written. Cap change = $0 AAV / total

Nick Schultz turns 28 before the season starts with three additional seasons of term. The team can retain him through 2012-13 as is, and seek a one-year exception to his NFC contract in 2013-14 so he can finish out his contract as written. Cap change = $0 AAV / total

Brad Staubitz, Clayton Stoner and Nate Prosser do not meet the LMC contract floor and therefore would be entitled to a raise. Cap change is $350K AAV / $650K total

The Wild are just above the average with nine players’ contracts requiring attention. Under the assumption extra bonus money would be given to Backstrom in order to make up for lost dollars, the total Cap change is -$23.4M. The team also has three players losing a total of four years of term between them.

Summary

Based on these five teams’ adjustments above, the Oilers have the least issues with seven affected players due to shorter terms and younger age. Where they do have issue is with every ELC, which drops the Cap change by millions of dollars. Total monetary hit is -$17.002M, and Shawn Horcoff and Nikolai Khabibulin each lose a year of term.

Next is the Kings with eight adjustments and -$1.210M to the Cap Hit.

The LAK are followed by The Wild with nine players affected, and a Cap change of -$23.4M with three players losing a total of four seasons’ term.

The Panthers also have nine player adjustments to make, but their Cap change to date of $1.905M.

And finally, based on age, talent and term, you have DET, again with nine players requiring renegotiations. But due to several older players with high-priced contracts, they have the most money coming back in to the team due to lost term at -$41.66M. Zetterberg and Franzen, two of their star players, both lose four years of term due to age restrictions in the proposed, new CBA.

Through 1/2 of the NHL, the averages are: 8.67 players affected per team; for a team payroll average of -$12.371M; and with a bit better than one player losing 2.67 years of term. These numbers have all increased from teams 5 – 10 to teams 11 – 15.

The next five teams to analyze will be MTL, NSH, NJD, NYI and NYR.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I”

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II”

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY (U.2)

Take me to analysis for CAR through DAL (U.2)

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs…

The New CBA Effect: CAR Through DAL (U.2) – The Colonel

2010-08-23T07:29:00.008-05:00

This blog has been updated with new financials, some reworking of the course of action to cover team contracts under the proposed, new CBA, and with charts to show the money matters facing teams.

Below, I analyze teams’ current contract regimens as if the new CBA in “The Next CBA: Part I” were to be applied this season. While several examples of how the recommended CBA affects Management/The League and Players in “The Next CBA: Part II”, there has been some commenting and traffic about specific team impacts.

This is the second of six blogs with by-team analysis on this subject. (Note in “The Next CBA: Part I” there is new language reference Offer Sheets to FCPs. Thanks for the comment, Davegeek!) The first blog in this six-blog series covered ANA through CGY, and I am now poised to provide CAR through DAL.

These six blogs use current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

Without further ado, on to the one-time Whalers.

Teams Six – 10 In NHL Alphabetical Order

CAR – Eric Staal meets FCP I status and Cam Ward meets FCP II status. No players meet FCP III status.

Staal would require an increase in salary any one season over the term to the FCP I maximum if so designated. Cap difference = $425K AAV / $2.55M total

Ward would also require an increase in any one season’s salary over term to the FCP II maximum. Cap difference = $150K AAV / $900K total

Tom Kostopoulous, Tim Gleason and Joe Corvo must be designated as NFCs. Cap change = $0

Jerome Sampson, Justin Peters, Jiri Tlusty, Pat Dwyer, Jay Harrison and Brett Carson, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K. Sampson and Peters would also get a second year at $725K Cap change =$1.163M in 2011-12 and $412.5K in 2012-13 AAV. Total Cap adjustment is $1.575M over the next two seasons with no players losing contract years.

For the Hurricanes, the total number of players requiring more than just a contract re-designation is 11 with a total Cap change of $5.026M in dollars. The team also has no players losing any contract years.

CHI – Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Brian Campbell all meet FCP II status in terms of dollars. No players meet FCP I or III status.

In an attempt to make a complicated salary structure in the Windy City simple and within the new CBA, here is how to proceed. With possibly the least amount of turmoil, you ignore the fact the Kane and Toews originally got a similar dollar and term contract and designate Toews as the FCP I, Kane is designated the FCP II, and Keith the FCP III to maximize the dollars and term on those contracts.
Toews as the FCP I would have at least one season designated at the FCP I maximum of $10.8M. Cap difference is $900K AAV / $4.5M total.

Kane as the FCP II would receive a one year pay raise to the FCP II maximum and complete the rest of his contract as written. And under the assumption the ‘Hawks want to keep Toews and Kane’s dollar figures and term the same, they can round out the money with an annual $720K in bonus money to Kane over his term. Cap difference is $180K AAV, but $4.5M total to the team with the bonuses in place

And then there’s Duncan Keith as the FCP III at age 27 this season with an additional 12 years left on his contract. Due to the age 32 FCP limit with one-year exception possible, his current contract receives a small raise to the FCP III maximum for one year before it expires into UFA status at Year 8. Cap difference =$65.9K AAV / $462K total while playing and a total of -$33.231M lost in UFA status.

Brian Campbell turns out better as an NFC with bonuses than he would have as the FCP II. With turning 32 this season and on an NFC maximum contract, he can only play normally through the 2012-13 season, secure a one-year exception before turning into a UFA for his last two years of current term, and have the team, in a gesture of good will, make up the difference from his current salary to his NFC in bonus money. Cap change = -$1.356M AAV / $0 total over term he can play with bonuses, plus the loss of two seasons’ salary for a total of -$14.286M. This provides a net change of -$14.286M

As an NFC, Marian Hossa will be 32 years old this season with a contract taking him for another 10 seasons. After Year 5 (2013-14) of his current contract, the team can request a one-time exception to keep him in Year 6 after which he will become a UFA lose four years on his current contract. There likely needs to be a “Hossa Clause” in the CBA to allow for players who lose term to have their current contracts at whatever amount they can serve honored as written, even if it busts the FCP rules.
In this case, Hossa would get a new AAV difference of $2.625M / total of $13.125M over the five seasons he can play and lose -$18.525M on the back end. This is why any new CBA will be difficult to agree upon. Without that change, however, he has a Cap change of $0 while playing and a total of -$18.525M in the six lost term years.

Dave Bolland, as an NFC, will be age 25 this season with four years left on his contract. He needs a one-year exception granted to his current contract to complete terms. Cap difference = $0

Niklas Hjalmarsson, will be age 24 this season with four years left on his contract. He needs a one-year exception granted to his current contract to complete terms. Cap difference = $0

Cristobal Huet ‘s loan to Fribourg-Gotteron in Switzerland removes his Cap Hit from CHI’s books. Under the assumption he will be on loan for both years, the Cap change would be -$5.625 AAV / -$11.250M total.

Bryan Bickell, John Scott, Jack Skille, Jake Dowell, Fernando Pisani, Jordan Hendry, and Nick Boynton, as holders of LMCs, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Bryan Bickell and John Scott would also get $725K in year two of their current agreement, and Bryan Bickell would net $750K in Year 3. Cap difference = $1.158M AAV /a total of $1.725M

So you’re thinking the Blackhawks were crazy to blow up their Stanley Cup winning team now? If this new, proposed CBA went into effect this season, they would have 15 players requiring contract attention with a Cap AAV change of -$5.693M. The Cap dollar difference would be-$79.545M spread out in various amounts from 2010-11 through 2022-23, due in large measure to four players losing 17 years of contract term against the current Cap (including Huet). In CHI’s case, a new CBA would not even really give a GM a clean slate to preside over.

COL – Paul Stastny meets FCP II status. No players meet FCP I or III status.

Stastny, by virtue of his designation as the team’s FCP II, receives a one-season raise to $7.2M. Cap impact = $120K AAV / $600K total.

Kevin Porter, David Koci, and Kyle Cumisky, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Cap difference = $265K AAV and total

Matt Duchene’s ELC would pay more than allowed. His maximum with bonuses would be $1.273M and $1.298M before the end of his ELC period. Cap difference = -$1.915M / -$3.829M total

The Avalanche are in pretty good shape. There are only four players with issues in the new CBA for a total of -$2.964M with no players losing any contracted term

CBJ – Rick Nash meets FCP I status. No players meet FCP II or III status.

Nash is age 26 this next season with seven additional years left on his contract. He needs a one-year exception to this contract (because he turns 32 in Year 7 of his eight-year contract) and a raise in one year to the $10.8M Cap Hit Ceiling to maintain his current contract, most likely in the last season when he is set to receive an $8.2M salary. Cap difference is $325K AAV / $2.6M total

Derick Brassard and Rostislav Klesla need one-year exceptions to NFCs and then would be allowed to serve out their current contract. Cap difference = $0

Derek Dorsett, Andrew Murray, Mike Blunden, and Grant Clitsome, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Derek MacKenzie and Derek Dorsett would also get $725K in year two of their current agreement. Cap difference = $485K AAV /$635K total of $610K

Jacob Voracek’s ELC with maximum bonuses is just under the requirement for this season. Cap difference = $2,167

The Blue Jackets’ eight players with issues is not a major hurdle to overcome. They owe players some money, however. The total cap difference is $3.237M, with the largest single chunk of change going out to Rick Nash in the last year of his contract. With a pair of one-year exceptions for specific players, there are no players losing years of contracted time off of their term.

DAL – Brad Richards meets FCP I status. No players meet FCP II or III status.

Richards will need a raise to $10.8M for his one, remaining season in FCP I status. Cap difference = $3M AAV and total

Louie Eriksson would need to either be designated the team’s FCP III, or the team would allow him to serve Years 1 – 3 of his current contract, seek a one-year exception for Year 4 and make him a UFA in Year 5 with two years lost off the life of the contract. If the FCP III, the difference is $289K AAV / $1.733M total. If not the FCP III, the Cap difference is $0 while playing and -$4.267M AAV / -$8.533M total in the last two seasons of his current contract

Steve Ott would need a one-year exception to his current contract in order to serve out the term. Cap difference = $0

Stephane Robidas will be 34 this season. He can therefore serve Year 1 and 2 of the current contract, seek a one-year exception in Year 3 and loses one year of his current contract to CBA language. Cap difference =$0 while playing and -$3.3M AAV and total in the last season of his current contract

Andrew Raycroft, Fabian Brunnstrom, Brandon Segal, and Jeff Woywitka, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Raycroft would also get $725K in year two of their current agreement. Cap difference is $287.5K AAV / $350K total of a span of two years.

The Stars sport eight players with proposed CBA issues. The total Cap dollar change is -$8.384M. And despite granting one-year exceptions for specific players, there are still two players with 3 years of lost contract status.

Summary

Based on what is shown above, The Avalanche have the least woes, due in large measure to having the vast majority of players with two year contracts at this time. Their five players’ contract adjustments with a total Cap change of -$2.964M in outgoing payroll ties them with ATL for our lowest number of team changes so far.

Next are the Stars with a eight adjustments and a team Cap dollar cut of -$8.384M. Of negative note, the Stars also have two players losing a total of three years in contract term.

The Blue Jackets’ same eight player adjustments hold an increased outlay of $3.237M in Cap dollars, something not beneficial to a small market team.

The Hurricanes have 11 players’ adjustments to make with no lost term for any players. Their Cap payroll outlay increases by $5.025M, however.

The Flames has some issues with 12 contracts to adjust, but lose a combined -$1.03M off the payroll due to this CBA’s rules.

But the Blackhawks beat every other team so far for the total number of players affected with 15, a cap payroll downturn of -$75.982M, and four players losing a total of 18 years of contract term (including Huet’s loan to the Swiss). These are due to ‘mortgaging to the hilt’ to get a Stanley Cup winning team, a process that worked last year. But it is equally likely the experience of Scotty Bowman in the front office was brought in to assist with the difficulties of working such a mangled process. Two thoughts come to mind here: the armchair quarterback sitting at home that says he can GM the ‘Hawks better than current management really doesn’t want to walk a mile in those shoes; and current management might very well welcome a new CBA in order to readjust everything back down to reasonable limits.

So with 1/3 of the NHL analyzed, we have shown an overall number of 88 players’ contract adjustments, with an overall decrease in payroll of -$100.635M due to large measure to 10 players with 27 years of lost contract term and some ELCs above the ELC Maximum with Bonuses. The averages are 8.8 players with -$10.634M in Cap dollars per team.

Note this blog has been adjusted to an Update 2 (U.2) due to player and monetary adjustments, a re-work of the CHI course of action and team charts for affected players’ salaries have been added.

The next five teams to analyze will be DET, EDM, FLA, LAK and MIN.

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part I”

Take me to “The Next CBA: Part II”

Take me to analysis for ANA through CGY

Take me to On Goal Analysis and the OGA Blogs…

The New CBA Effect: ANA Through CGY (U.2) – The Colonel

2010-08-21T11:33:00.007-05:00

These blogs have been upadted with new financial information - charts to illustrate Cap effect are being posted as well

Below, I analyze teams’ current contract regimens as if the new CBA in “The Next CBA: Part I” were to be applied this season. While several examples of how the recommended CBA affects Management/The League and Players in “The Next CBA: Part II”, there has been some commenting and traffic about specific team impacts. So this is the first of six blogs with by-team analysis on this subject. (Note in “The Next CBA: Part I” there is new language reference Offer Sheets to FCPs. Thanks for the comment, Davegeek!)

These six blogs use current information from www.capgeek.com to determine contractual impact of the recommended, next CBA. I assume that players being paid over the League Minimum Contract (LMC) floor of $700K are at least Non-Franchise Contract (NFC) Players, so their re-designation is not listed unless their salary must change or a special designation is required. I also assume the goal of every team would be to honor the contract awarded unless there are public rumblings to the contrary. And all changes required to meet the recommended CBA’s contracting language are discussed.

The First Five Teams Of The NHL Alphabet

ANA – No players meet FCP I, II or III status.

Jason Blake will be 37 years old this season with one additional year remaining on contract. Under the new CBA, the team would need to request a one-time exception for him to complete his current contract. (This will be a negotiating point in CBA language – will teams be required to request the one time exception in order to honor the contracts they have already awarded to the maximum extent possible.) Cap change = $0.

Saku Koivu will be 36 years old this season with one additional year remaining on contract. The team would need to request a one-time exception for him to complete his current contract. Cap change = $0.

Lubomir Visnovsy will be 35 years old going into next season with one additional year remaining on contract. The team can request a one-time exception to retain him in his last season as contracted. Cap change = $0.

Toni Lydman will be 33 years old this season with two additional years remaining on contract. The team needs to designate him as an NFC player to complete his current contract. Cap change = $0.

Kyle Chipchura, Ryan Carter, Troy Brodie, Brendan Mikkelson, Brett Festerling and Curtis McElhinney, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Total Cap change = $476K AAV and total

For the Ducks, the total number of players requiring contract adjustments is 10 with an AAV and a total Cap change of $476K, all in 2010-11. No players would lose any contract years. Well done, ANA.

ATL – No players meet FCP I, II or III status and no player’s contracts are at issue.

Chris Thorburn, Eric Boulton and Freddy Meyer, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season. Cap change = $190K AAV and total

Both Zach Bogosian and Evander Kane are over paid on their ELC in 2010-11, and Kane also in 2011-12. Their contracts need to be lowered to $1.273M this coming season and Kane’s to $1.298M the next including the maximum bonus structure. Cap change =
Bogosian’s AAV and total are -$2.102M; Kane’s is -$1.815M AAV / -$3.629M total; for a total of -$5.731M

For the Thrashers, the total number of players requiring more than just a contract re-designation is five with a total Cap change of -$3.727M AAV and total dollar change for the team is -$5.541M. No players lose any contract years.

BOS – Zdeno Chara must be named the club’s FCP I. No players meet FCP II or III status.

Chara needs to be compensated for his remaining contract season at the FCP I maximum rate for a total Cap Hit of $3.3M AAV and total

Marc Savard will be 33 years old this season with six additional years remaining on contract. At age 35 (in 2012-13), the team will have to request a one-time exception to retain him under current terms in contract Year 4 (2013-14), and then allow him to become a UFA. Cap change = -$4.007M AAV and a total of -$8.014M

Dennis Seidenberg – unless designated as an FCP – has one year too many on his current contract. The team can retain him as an NFC, but must request a one-time exception to keep him in Year 4 of his current contract. Cap change = $0K

Tim Thomas will be 37 years old this season with two additional years remaining on contract. After Year 2 (2010-11) of his current contract, the team can request a one-time exception to keep him in Year 3 but he will become a UFA in Year 4 of his current contract. Cap change = -$5M AAV and total in 2012-13

Adam McQuaid, as a holder of an LMC, needs a raise to the LMC floor of $700K this season and $725K next season. Cap change = $138K AAV / $275K total

Tyler Seguin is over paid on his ELC. His contract needs to be lowered to $1.273M, $1.298M and $1.323M with maximum bonus structure. Cap change = -$2.252M AAV / total of -$6.756M

For the Bruins, the total number of player adjustments is six with a total Cap change of -$11.122M AAV and -$16.196M total dollars difference over various years from 2010-11 through 2015-16. The team has two players losing a total of four contract years.

BUF – Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller both meet FCP II status. No players meet FCP I or III status.

Thomas Vanek cannot be an FCP II at the same time as Ryan Miller. The team can solve his issue by awarding him the team’s FCP I designation per the proposed CBA with one season of the FCP I maximum salary. Cap change = $915K AAV / $3.657M total

If Ryan Miller is designated the team’s FCP II, he can serve out his current contract as written with no change as long as he gets a one-year exception for play in the last year of his agreement and a one-year raise to the FCP II Maximum. Cap change = $238K AAV / $950K total

Jason Pominville – unless designated as an FCP – has one year too many on his current contract. The team can retain him as an NFC and request a one-time exception to keep him in Year 4 to complete his current contract. Cap change = $0K

Derek Roy and Jordan Leopold only need their current contracts designated as an NFCs. Cap change = $0K

Cody McCormick and Patrick Lalime, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K. Cap change = -$200K AAV and total for McCormick and -$50K AAV and total for Lalime, all in 2010-11

Tyler Myers is over paid on his ELC. His contract needs to be lowered to $1.273M and $1.298M with maximum bonus structure. Cap change = -$14.5K AAV / -$29K total

For the Sabres, the total number of player adjustments is eight with a total Cap difference over four years of $1.387M AAV /-$4.828M total. No players lose any contract years.

CGY – Jerome Iginla and Jay Bouwmeester both meet FCP II status. No players meet FCP I or III status.

Jerome Iginla cannot be an FCP II at the same time as Jay Bouwmeester. The team can solve his issue by awarding him an FCP I designation which would also carry him through his 35-year-old season per the proposed CBA. They also have to pay him the FCP I maximum for one season. Cap change = $1.267M AAV / $3.8M total

With Jerome Iginla designated the team’s FCP I, Jay Bouwmeester’s contract is in compliance if he is designated the FCP II. Cap change = $130K AAV / $520K total

Rene Bourque’s contract requires him to be designated as the FCP III if Iginla and
Bouwmeester are the other two FCPs. This would require an adjustment for at least one season to a $6M salary. But at age 29 this season, his FCP reaches the age 32 mark in Year 4 with two years remaining. The team can request a one-year exception in Year 5 (2014-15) and then has to release him as a UFA in year 6 (2015-16). Cap change = an AAV of $533K / $2.667M total through 2014-15, and a savings of -$3.333M in 2015-16. The total dollar change is a net of -$667K

Matthew Stajan (due to age and term) and Robyn Regehr (due to term) need their current contracts designated as NFCs and the team to secure a one-year exemption to complete all terms as written. Cap change = $0K

Cory Sarich needs his current contract designated as an NFC. Cap change = $0K

Miikka Kiprusoff will be 34 years old in this season with a contract taking him through age 37. After Years 3 and 4 (this coming season and next) of his current contract, the team can request a one-time exception to keep him in Year 5 after which he will become a UFA and lose one contract year. Cap change = $0 AAV / total through 2012-13 and an AAV / total savings of -$5.833M in 2013-14

Ratis Ivanans, Tim Jackman, Craig Conroy, Staffan Kronwall and Henrik Karlsson, as holders of an LMC, all need a raise to the LMC floor of $700K. Ivanans and Jackman would get a second year at $725K and a third year at $750K while Conroy, Kronwall and Karlsson would be UFAs after the next season. Cap change equals: AAV and total of $600K in 2010-11 for Conroy, Kronwall and Karlsson; an AAV of $162.5K / total of $325K for Jackman; an AAV of $112.5K / total of $225K for Ivanans; for a grand total of $875K AAV / total of S1.15M

For the Flames, the total number of players requiring more than just a contract re-designation is 12 with a total Cap change of -$1.03M in various amounts from 2010-11 to 2014-15. The team also has two players losing two contract years.

Summary

Based on what is shown above, ATL has the least CBA contractual issues to deal with. Their five players with a -$5.541M Cap difference provide the least turmoil for management to solve.

BOS is next in line with five player issues and a Cap difference of -$16.196M and two players with a total of two lost contract years.

BUF is third in this group with eight player issues and a $4.828M Cap difference. Working within an internal budget, they will have to make up the difference caused primarily by FCP I and II designations.

ANA may have 10 contract issues, but they are the least fiscally impacted team at a $476K Cap difference in terms of dollars. The discussions of $5M for five years for Bobby Ryan and his desire to have less term make Ryan the more astute manager as the parameters of this CBA would not allow for the five year term unless he was an FCP.

The team with the toughest row to hoe here is CGY with 12 player issues with a total Cap dollar difference of –$1.03M. The strange math between the AAV and the total dollars is due to the -$6.5M savings differential from Bourque’s and Kiprusoff’s lost contract years.

I would be remiss if I didn’t make two overarching comments here. First is that you can see with such contracts as Marc Savard’s that this new CBA closes down the number of years on the back end of the contract like the NHL is reviewing following the Kovalchuk decision. Legal folks will tell you a contract as written and signed by parties should be honored. But a new, signed CBA would supersede old contracts. In this case, it would not be like the re-writing of all agreements coming out of The Lockout, but contracts past approved terms would have to be altered.

Currently ‘guaranteed’ money departs from players’ pockets here with the only payback being a release to UFA status. In fact, from the four teams above, four total players lose six total contract years, producing a five-team average of .8 players/1.2 contract years lost per team. Some form of compromise might well need to be stricken here – the final tally of how many players this affects will be important at the end of these blogs.

And a second issue seen with ATL, BOS and BUF above is that the largest, single contract group from these teams impacted by the new CBA is players with an ELC and maximum bonuses. I will look to see if that holds throughout the other 25 teams because it could indicate another negotiating point between the NHLPA and Management/The League that will have to be hurdled for an agreement to be hammered out.

Note this blog has been adjusted to an Update 2 (U.2) due to player and monetary adjustments and team charts for affected players’ salaries have been added.

The next, New CBA analysis blog will cover the impact to contracts for CAR, CHI, COL, CBJ and DAL.

Take me to “The Next CBA:Part I”.

Take me to “The Next CBA:Part II”.

Take me to On Goal Analysis…